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Oasis Mafia - Over!

Xivii

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Kindgom of Science
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Utopian (3) - Ninja, Sabrar, Boom [L-3]


Sabrar (2) - Laser, Utopian


Maven (1) - pythag


Ninja (1) - Ran


Laser (1) - Jack


Not Voting (3)
Maven, Z25, Wisp

P1
Sabrar #Laser
Ninja #UP
pythag #Maven
Ran #Jack
Laser #Ran
UP #Jack
UP #Unv
UP #Sabrar
Z25 #pythag
Boom #Sabrar
Laser #Wiisp
Ran #Ninja

P2
Jack #Laser
Boom #Unv
Boom #Jack
Ran #Laser

P3-P4*
Z25 #Unv

P4-P5*
Laser #Sabrar
Ran #Unv
Ran #Ninja
Sabrar #Unv
Sabrar #UP
Jack #Unv
UP #Unv
UP #Ninja

P5-P7*
Jack #pythag
Boom #Unv
Boom #Maven
Wiisp #Ninja

P7-P9*
Wiisp #Unv
UP #Unv
UP #Boom

P10
Jack #Laser

P12
UP #Unv
UP #Sabrar
Boom #Unv
Boom #UP

Notes
None

Players and Events
Link

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to execute!

Deadline: Monday, April 20, 2:00pm EDT
 
Last edited:

ranmaru

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ranmaru ranmaru with UP and 3ds in your scum list, how do you feel on 3ds consistently saying he would lynch UP if he could? Is this something newb scum would do?
If you notice, Ninja has been setting up this idea that UP has been his push since page one. I think it's likely that is why he has been constantly mentioning up as his 'suspect' even though it seems to fall flat. Then he'd flip mafia, and no one would think to look at UP. So yes this is certainly something scum could do, but not without help or planning.
 

UtopianPoyzin

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Not sure, I’ll get back to you when I find out.
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If you notice, Ninja has been setting up this idea that UP has been his push since page one. I think it's likely that is why he has been constantly mentioning up as his 'suspect' even though it seems to fall flat. Then he'd flip mafia, and no one would think to look at UP. So yes this is certainly something scum could do, but not without help or planning.
So this 3DSNinja collapse was my idea?
 

ranmaru

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You say revealing the neighbors was calculated, but calculated to do what? If he was advised be an experienced scummate, what do you imagine the experienced mate was trying to accomplish?
To make him (Ninja) seem like he is brash and solo. The neighbor claim seems like a sudden move. It seems like it was made because of Ninja's position at the time, they were caught making a mistake (forgetting to respond to Pythag, voted by ranmaru). I am not saying it was the best move, but I don't think it's something newb scum would make in their own mind.
 

ranmaru

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I’m curious what do you think of Wisp seemingly having no idea about the neighborhood and that 3ds claimed they were in it.

In fact when I pointed that out Wisp said something along the lines of “wait they did?”

As if shocked by this realization that potentially their buddy could have ratted them out by accident.

It felt like a very out of place reaction and I can’t see how they wouldn’t have noticed that conversation beforehand.

Secondly they also had no idea that I and laser backed up the neighborhood claim. Something that if they were reading the thread should have been very obvious.

What do you make of these inconsistencies? Is town Wisp just not really playing attention which is why they have a lack of conviction akin to what you pointed out. Or is this scum Wisp trying to play off a bad mistake by their partner?

After all if 3ds is scum and didn’t check with his neighbors before claiming, who says his scum mate was even asked beforehand?
My first reaction is Wisp shouldn't have an idea about the neighborhood at first glance. Not until all three neighbors confirm it.
I think the same could be said from a town pov. That doesn't really confirm it came from mafia wisp.
I think Wisp has already shown us that he doesn't read from his last game with us, and he was town there. So I am not surprised he isn't paying attention and his question to me about Ninja in early game also shows he wasn't reading.
Overall, Ninja slipping his buddy by accident is a possibility, but one I suggest we don't heavily obsess over, because of the possibility that it's deliberate. It's best to simply read Wisp by his own content.
 

ranmaru

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I’m only on page 5 of my read. So far I’m finding Ranmaru to be really, really forcing his pushes. I don’t expect anyone to have strong day 1 cases, but Ranmaru was wrapping his hunches up with a bow like it was a nice present, implying he’s more interested in lynching then discussing.
I think this is disproved from the previous pages. I've been discussing, and only just posted a case on Ninja, along with my reads that I took time to detail with post links. I even asked questions of Sabrar, UP, Jackrito, and Wisp to further develop my reads on them. I waited for these answers before posting my reads.
 

3DSNinja

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Ranmaru, you 're logic is making no sense. Your lynchpin in saying that I'm scum is that I claimed that you anr Z25 are town. Really?
 

ranmaru

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Also, I really don’t understand how Ranmaru’s statement I quoted didn’t cause anyone but me to scratch their heads. Did Ranmaru not make a heavy scum slip just a couple of games ago? Unfortunately when you’re inactive all the games blend together
I meant I have an expectation of Sabrar as town (if he is) to do heavy setup speculation. Yet each time I happened to be scum. I should have said if I shouldn't have expected again if he is town. Referring to the setup scumhunting that Laser and Boom were :/ about with me. With context, you'd know that's what I meant, since they have said that Sabrar doesn't do that each time, but I had a smaller set of experiences to use as examples than them.
 

ranmaru

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ranmaru ranmaru Or is this an attempt to look good if Up flipped scum by half bussing their teammate? Much like Pokechu did the whole game with Pythag during your flavorless mafia game you hosted.
That's my perspective on this, yes. It's certainly been done by scum in the past, but only bold scum teams.

ranmaru ranmaru Would a coached newb scum 3ds do this? Or could 3ds be less newb scum but just made a big flaw by mistake and had trouble finding good explanation for it?
Coached newb scum. We aren't sure if he is more experienced then he says he is though. Yet I don't think claiming neighbors is a mistake at all. Again, I suggested against it, yet he still wanted to for a bogus reason. In the end we shouldn't give him the benefit of the doubt after not doing anything but defend himself.
 

ranmaru

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Pythag Pythag Z responded to you accusation of him helping Ninja, what is your conclusion from his response?
 

LaserGuy

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Sorry I've been pretty quiet. I've been finding it more difficult than I expected to have time to play during the day, and I'm struggling to catch up and keep all of the different personalities straight. Unfortunately, the way my days have ended up I'm probably not going to be able to do much more than a very quick phone posts now and then during the day but I'll try to post some larger posts at night.

Starting on some rereads, not sure if I'll get through everyone tonight but I'll try:

##Unvote

Sabrar:
My early suspicion of him largely centred around the fact that I am used to Sabrar being much more active and aggressive in the early game than I see him here, and I usually associate his passive play with being scum. Around #215 or so his content starts to pick up as he engages with UP. His reads on #309 look reasonable to me. I don't really buy his case on UP in #326, but it's at least plausibly motivated. Wiisp seems weirdly placed on his reads in #332 FMPOV and 3DS is astoundingly high, but overall I'm liking his content more than I did previously.

Putting him at a Town lean.

Re: #335
As I said, this is something I didn't really put a lot of thought into. My experience though is that such coaching is pretty limited and that too much coaching tends to lead to very stilted replies that would probably be detectable in other ways.

UP:
I liked the early energy and engagement. Returning to #94, my interpretation of this comment was the emoji posting was a hard null, and what he could glean from my actual commentary moved me slightly below null. This is a conservative approach but not much different from, e.g. pythag's response or Ran's.

UP's early suspicions on Sabrar seems to have been built heavily on (IMHO) misunderstanding Sabrar's opening post. This post is fairly typical opening Sabrar regardless of alignment, but I could see how it can be misconstrued. It bothers me more that UP is still pushing this point much later when Sabrar has more content and we're well out of RVS.

I don't like the naked vote on BoomFrog and the later backpedal. Townread on Maven is o.O

Overall... I'm liking UP a lot less than I was early in the game. Dropping them down to a scum lean.


BoomFrog:
Content is still light, which is not exactly out of character for Boom D1 especially if IRL is interfering. One of the few people to give a full-throated defense of 3DS. Tone feels townie to me, which is about all I have to go on at this point pretty much everything else I think could plausibly come from him as either Town or scum Boom. On tone, I lean slightly Town.


3DS:
I don't really feel like there's much more that needs to be said about him. I think it's fairly obvious that he's an impulsive newbie and I can see claim and the mistake on Wiisp could *possibly* have come from him as either alignment. I do think that his tone in #133, #139, and #140 (also #151 and several posts going forward that I won't bother to list) immediately after he was made aware of the slip (though it had been mentioned earlier he doesn't appear to have reading closely) looks very bad to me. I think most likely he is caught scum and I imagine I'll be voting for him at the end of this.
 

Pythag

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Pythag Pythag Z responded to you accusation of him helping Ninja, what is your conclusion from his response?
Well, I did a short ISO on Z.

his 'grilling' to me looks like boomer tech support :
"did you get the email."
"no"
"zen doesn't run games like that"
"oh you mean THIS email?"
*slaps forehead*

throw some encouragement in there 'don't give up, even in you're mafia!'

however...

In my reread, I was looking again at the wiisp name drop.
It really looks bad.
It's giving me pause. I'm chewing on that.

Admittedly, all of my thought in this is predicated on the idea that scum!3DS wouldn't, or couldn't play 'dumb' this well.

I may not be 100% convinced he's mafia, but that doesn't mean I'm unwilling to vote for him.
 

LaserGuy

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Maven:
Null. I'm trying to give him the benefit of the doubt that he's just busy/unavailable/whatever but I would really like to see something out of him. If 3DS flips scum, Maven being a buddy is definitely one possibility I'm considering as newbie scum floundering with an absent partner is definitely an explanation that seems plausible to me.


Wiisp:
Lots of posts but surprisingly little content in them. I am having a very hard time pinning a read down on her. I get a few pings here and there but nothing really strong. Leaving her on the scummy side of null. Hopefully I'll get a better sense of what's going on with her after she posts her reads.

Jackrito:
Opening response to my gambit still looks sketchy, but activity has picked up since then, though the quality is sketchy. #155 makes my head hurt and I don't care for the vote on pythag in #170 as pythag had IMHO been producing reasonable content at this stage. There are a lot of places where it appears that Jackrito is either misreading or misinterpreting (e.g. #214, #327). The reads in #356 all feel very wishy-washy. Leaning scum.

Re: #327
Well, obviously I have had some availability issues that have made it difficult for me to play as much as I'd like. But also, my analysis had you in with Maven as calling me scummy without any content of your own.


Ranmaru:
I'm honestly pretty much taking it as a gimme that this is likely Town Ran. His reads look well thought out and I tend to agree with most of what he's saying.

re: #401 Sabrar
Sabrar is usually more active as Town than scum, though his energy level as Town has some variance to it. That's one of the reasons why I was reading him so strongly early in the game, as his activity was uncharacteristically muted.

pythag:
I like how he goes about asking questions and trying to figure things out. General lack of scum reads (e.g. #181) is a bit notable, but I've played with people like this before and I know that's how some people play, especially on D1. Not really worried about this unless it persists for a few more phases. Leaning town.

Z25:
Response to my emoji posting seems very townie. I appreciate that he even tried to check with me in the neighborhood. Content has been heavily focused on 3DS since then up until recently. Leaning town but would like to see some updated reads on everyone else.
 

Wiisp

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Look I was just as paraniod of Ranmarus play style last game, if he is a deep wolf, he pretty much solidified himself in the towncore for day 1 at least

Also I do read the game
 

Wiisp

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Okay scum, riddle me this. Sure I’m going to appeal to WIFOM on you, but I’m at least going to have you solidify your scumread on me. Why would I purportedly vote you without any reason, which is by definition a scummy thing to do, and then double down on appearing scummy by switching off of it? Just go through how this works in my favor, please.
This is posts sounds so god damn weird
 

Wiisp

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Wtf mate, that's illegal. You vote me while explicitly saying you aren't giving an explanation. That's an implicit promise to explain yourself later. Now it just feels like you are flailing about randomly.
This is a game of mafia, get over it
UP didn't flail around at all when he was mafia in my last game. His pushes were way more calculated
 

Wiisp

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Ranmaru is a confident player, honestly it would be more weird if he wasn't super aggressive

There is very little reason to believe an active pusher is a wolf on day 1
 

Wiisp

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It was weird in the sense, that I don't think a wolf says it

I also don't think a wolf says the above especially you given how flaily you became as a wolf, when you were pressured
 

ranmaru

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Sabrar: I want to discuss reads with you.
 

ranmaru

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UP, I think it is better that you explain why you voted Boom. I am curious.
 

Sabrar

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"weird" is a very helpful out for anti-town to call attention to a piece of evidence without doing anything about it
I'm not 'not doing anything' with it. I'm using it in my read of you. I've seen quite a few vote-changes during RVS but noone was ever so self-conscious that they felt the need to point it out.

In all honesty, I was hoping to bait a reaction for it
Good attempt at post hoc explanation to cover up.

My vote was still in RVS, so it certainly wasn't terribly important, which is contrary to what you are trying to prove. However, it WAS based on my "natural intuition", and which opening I felt was likely to come from scum.
Contradiction, it's not RVS and it is important if you base it on intuition.

and I don't think UP ever reacted to my reply in #215.
Peculiar. Let me know if you want me to touch on anything else, I'd be happy to oblige.
You reacted only to the part regarding your confidence in the neighbor-scum. But from the context it should have been clear to you that I was referring to the part that questions the validity of your read of my initial vote. Yes, I would like you to react to that.

I'm not sure what you're referring to, as I still have high confidence that there's a scummer in a three person neighborhood. I'm not trying to withdrawn or conceal that statement, so don't try to make it seem that I'm trying to mislead.
I see it differently. But it might be just a wording issue.

I found more people to be more townie than LaserGuy, so I naturally filled in the blanks and assumed that LaserGuy was just trying to conceal information.
You shouldn't do PoE with less than a day gone. You can put them at neutral but thinking that PoE will catch scum that early is a bit too much.
Also see next point.

For someone who is criticizing me for basing my read of you on early impretions, you're sure putting a lot of emphasis into my very first readslist
Yeah, no. I haven't touched #95 at all. But if you insist, please answer Wiisp's #441. Just saying that it is an old list (#452) is not even close to enough. You must have had your reasons for that order, especially if LG ended up in the scummy pile because everyone above him was townier.
 

ranmaru

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Talk to me about Ninja. Tell me your first impression of Maven.
 

ranmaru

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UtopianPoyzin UtopianPoyzin You say my argument regarding you is based on wrong information. Can you elaborate on that?
Jackrito Jackrito What is your updated stances / thoughts on current events?
 

Sabrar

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Ninja I cannot evaluate. There was someone a bit like him on xkcd, I usually had serious trouble when we were in the same game. I would hate to lose against scum!Ninja but I think his explanation makes sense from a newbie (relative to this site) town pov as well. I won't oppose his lynch but I think we could do better.

My first impression on Maven was null. He clearly has his own style that he sticks to. I'm not a fan of his play, mainly because if everyone would behave the same way there would no game. But as long his activity picks up later I can tolerate it.
 

Wiisp

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Someone who rolled wolf over and over doesn't have this kind of wim

When people poked UP in the last game I played, he had a nervous tone, I don't see it
 

Wiisp

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Once I am able to fully commit after work I'll decide if the content of his posts actually tell the tale of town
 

ranmaru

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I'm wondering why you haven't prompted me to discuss reads, or try to convince me that I'm wrong on Ninja, especially after I have a case on Ninja being scum. Looking at your original read of Ninja also seems faulty. Finally, can you tell me why you believe UP's confidence waning = scum? If he is scum showing too much information, how does that reflect on Ninja's alignment?
 
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