Oasis Mafia - Over!

[Wiisp]

Sabrar
Give me like a well thought out wolf case on someone that isn't Ninja, or Maven
I dislike how you had to mention policy lynching in your thoughts on Maven

 

[Wiisp]

ranmaru
The reason I even think boom is a wolf is because of exactly what you stated, he plays mostly 3rd party to the thread, he is very inbetween on things
You don't need to tell me

 

[Wiisp]

Sabrar
What is your case on UP?

 

[ranmaru]

Then join me on Boom. You say my vote swap has you paranoid. I'm trying to ensure we get the correct lynch.

 

[Jackrito]

Then join me on Boom. You say my vote swap has you paranoid. I'm trying to ensure we get the correct lynch.

I'm fine with a vote on Boom as my earlier readlist showed, I'm just shocked that you changed your mind on Ninja since you spend all day selling that. My only worry is that Ninja becomes the topic of discussion again if we don't resolve it today.

 

[ranmaru]

I can't determine scum's alignment without the passage of time and their reactions or lack of reactions to my push. Join me, Jack.

 

[Jackrito]

I meant in-game connections. Obviously you and Wiisp have previous history but that's not relevant.

LaserGuy feels more invested in the game. I put down my impressions in his part.

On the xkcd site gambits were tried by multiple players. IIRC it was more common from town but that of course doesn't mean a thing.

what do you class as in game connections in this case then,

I don't feel laser is overly invested at all so your view on them bothers me.

 

[Sabrar]

Give me like a well thought out wolf case on someone that isn't Ninja, or Maven

What is your case on UP?

My case on UP is that he is unable/unwilling to provide reasons for his statements. He contradicts himself. You can find it summarized in #707 and #708.

I dislike how you had to mention policy lynching in your thoughts on Maven

Maven lurks. I have a Lynch All Lurkers policy.

 

[Z25]

Town-Ninja:

1. If the role claim means Laser Guy is confirmed town, why claim it pre-maturely for him, when Laser can do that himself?
2. Xiivi should be in every chat, though. We know Xiivi is the host, I don't think it's likely he confused the host was playing, and added him into a discussion about his neighbors.
3. Unlikely because then he'd be borderline not reading his own alignment.

"Laser: He keeps posting in only emotes, and since one person in the neighborhood is probably scum, and I know it isn't me, it's defiantly not Z25, and I don't think it's Wiisp, it has to be Laser by logical deduction.

Scum-Ninja
1. Scum-Ninja doesn't care about the details of the neighbor role, they just know that it benefits them to claim it. Benefit: Mostly everyone thinks they are reckless noob town, that no scum would advise to do.
2. So, this is a possibility. Xiivi and Wiisp being in chat together, makes more sense. Yet, since I believe it's too blatant of a slip, that it should be taken with a grain of salt. It's more believable that, Ninja as scum, has been coached into slipping Wisp (who wasn't voting or doing much to progress town) to create a possible mislynch after Ninja's own scum flip. Also wifom because it's also possible it was done so that people would consider this angle, semi-clearing Wisp. So I think both are possible, but I feel it being deliberate is a much higher chance. Meaning, scum wouldn't deliberately slip their scum mate, they would slip town deliberately as that progress their win condition. The thing is, we can't ignore the slip. Yet we can find scum before we are forced to consider it as a connection. Which we can do with vote analysis.
3. Agreed, this fits here.

Honestly if we ha e a vig Wiisp May not be the worse choice for a shot if ninja flips scum. If he flips town it wouldn’t be best. We would be able to solve things better and do well going into the next day though if we had nailed scum ninja and then scum wisp the same day.

But that’s just a hypothetical. I still don’t think Wiisp should be cleared upon a scum ninja flip. It’s a slot that should still be looked at in that scenario.

Boom is scum. He's positioning himself to look good on Ninja's flip while ignoring Ninja's play. I no longer believe and support a Ninja lynch. (#173, #350)

Possibly, that’s not a good enough reason to not vote Ninja though.

Scum Boom could also theoretically want you to have this same mindset, then get lynched himself and essentially clear ninja. Who would the new playerness going on would look better to town upon Scum Booms flip.

 

[Sabrar]

what do you class as in game connections in this case then,

Defending them, questioning others' reads on them without prompting, that kind of stuff.

 

[Jackrito]

Part of me is worried that I'm following Ran to much he is the controlling pretence that makes them great as town, but awful to catch as scum. After just being in a game where a wolf pocketed me hard this feels similar. I have no reason to doubt Ranmaru other then just doubt since they appear the most towny is the issue. I guess this is something that I just keep in mind and worry about in the late game if needed.

 

[Sabrar]

Scum Boom could also theoretically want you to have this same mindset, then get lynched himself and essentially clear ninja.

scum!BF might do this if it were any other player. Not for Ninja. Not the BF I know.

 

[ranmaru]

Well, let me give you a new old scum read. UP. Can y'all guess why I now believe he is scum?

 

[Z25]

Honestly if we ha e a vig Wiisp May not be the worse choice for a shot if ninja flips scum. If he flips town it wouldn’t be best. We would be able to solve things better and do well going into the next day though if we had nailed scum ninja and then scum wisp the same day.

But that’s just a hypothetical. I still don’t think Wiisp should be cleared upon a scum ninja flip. It’s a slot that should still be looked at in that scenario.

Possibly, that’s not a good enough reason to not vote Ninja though.

Scum Boom could also theoretically want you to have this same mindset, then get lynched himself and essentially clear ninja. Who would the new playerness going on would look better to town upon Scum Booms flip.

EBWOP:

have the new player ness.

Also to add a little more. Boom stated being busy irl so a more sacrificial play to save ninja that could carry him through late game or endgame might work. Especially if there is a third scum at large.

 

[ranmaru]

Jackrito Pocketing aside, do you have any disagreement with what I'm saying about Boom?

 

[Z25]

Well, let me give you a new old scum read. UP. Can y'all guess why I now believe he is scum?

For a lot of different reasons I’m sure. Such as admitted his reads meant very little, his contradictions, calling other people’s reads( like me), etc.

There’s plenty of choices there

 

[ranmaru]

Notice how UP hasn't been doing anything lately?

 

[Z25]

scum!BF might do this if it were any other player. Not for Ninja. Not the BF I know.

What do you think of my theory about his irl work taking a lot of time, hence when he can only post here and there as he said.

Also what if he’s trying this different tactic also knowing you would think that?

Any examples you can share for why he wouldn’t do this?

 

[Z25]

Notice how UP hasn't been doing anything lately?

Yes, it was actually on my mind currently. But again I think he’s likely scum, but not one I would necessary lynch today, but I’m open to the idea. Up has given us a lot to look back at upon a flip either way.

 

[ranmaru]

I gave a town meta case on UP and ever since he's been ignoring my queries and literally not doing anything to progress town, sitting on his vote on Sabrar.

 

[Sabrar]

I think if irl is an issue BF would ask for replacement instead. He's an experienced player, Ninja is a newbie. Sacrificing BF for Ninja when it's not even guaranteed that we don't lynch Ninja immediately after has very negative expected value.

 

[Jackrito]

Jackrito Pocketing aside, do you have any disagreement with what I'm saying about Boom?

No not at all once I finish reread to be sure I could vote there.

 

[Z25]

I think if irl is an issue BF would ask for replacement instead. He's an experienced player, Ninja is a newbie. Sacrificing BF for Ninja when it's not even guaranteed that we don't lynch Ninja immediately after has very negative expected value.

If he’s that experienced why make such a protective play of lynch? That type of complete commitment to a sketchy slot is still going to look bad even if ninja flipped town

 

[Sabrar]

BF can also be confident in his reads. There is a small chance for town!BF to really think that and wanting to prevent a mislynch.

 

[ranmaru]

See, I considered that, but looking at his #350, I don't believe that's the case. The scum argument seems to make more sense from his post, yet he sides with believing in Ninja, and ignoring his shift in attitude.

 

[ranmaru]

ranmaru How can you take this level of confusion? The dude really has no idea what is going on. I know you literally faked extra confusion in your first game as scum, but most people aren't that competent. Like, this could be fake, it's not impossible, but odds are 3DS is a bad lynch.

And, please don't lower your opinion of me for not doing something. I have limited time and choose how I spend it. So if you feel I made a post that wasn't worthwhile that's a ligit criticism, but don't lower my scum rank because I didn't update a read, unless you have a different post you think I shouldn't have made. You don't judge Maven for low participation, just for how he participates, please extend me the same consideration.

 

[ranmaru]

In Boom's #709, it looks like he is pointing to that as evidence for town-ninja when he was ignoring everything else. That felt forced to me.

 

[ranmaru]

Scum Boom could also theoretically want you to have this same mindset, then get lynched himself and essentially clear ninja. Who would the new playerness going on would look better to town upon Scum Booms flip.

Yet Ninja wouldn't live to lylo with his play, he's still a question mark. So if Boom is scum with Ninja, defending him hard to get me to reconsider, then it would only hurt them in the long run. In that scenario, I'd rather lynch Boom, where I'm more confident he would flip scum, and let town deal with Ninja in my absense. (I don't think people would let him live after today)

 

[Sabrar]

Wiisp : could you please follow-up on #754?

 

[Z25]

In Boom's #709, it looks like he is pointing to that as evidence for town-ninja when he was ignoring everything else. That felt forced to me.

i mean a lot of the confusion was related to 3ds lynch reasons but I suppose he could have definitely elaborated on it.

He might genuinely think that’s all a huge mistake but even if he only played a lot of typical mafia setups, I can’t see that many mistakes especially stuff like the role pm and not remembering anything about confirming for the game. So I still think Booms point that this points to town is weak, but doesn’t completely make boom look scum for suggesting. Boom is a slot we need more from anyway

 

[ranmaru]

The point is, Boom has been defending him hard when it's only for weak reasoning. Ask yourself, why is he defending him hard with weak reasoning?

 

[Z25]

The point is, Boom has been defending him hard when it's only for weak reasoning. Ask yourself, why is he defending him hard with weak reasoning?

I see your point. Let’s say we lynch boom today he flips scum, where does your mindset go next? Who would be a good lynch?

If he flips town those same questions apply.

 

[ranmaru]

Boom flips scum: I lynch UP.
Boom flips town: I lynch Ninja.

 

[ranmaru]

Pythag I've seen you viewing. I'm most curious about your thoughts on current events.

 

[Wiisp]

Are we sure sabrar is town?
This isn't shade
ranmaru
Your read of sabrar is still town, correct?

And fine
##vote Boom

 

[ranmaru]

It's still town. When he was scum he was much less present, and I think he's bringing up good points, and scum hunting consistently.

 

[ranmaru]

Wiisp Talk to me about Jack.

 

[Pythag]

Pythag I've seen you viewing. I'm most curious about your thoughts on current events.

I'm still super groggy and really out of it, I know I'm 'viewing' I don't know how much I'm absorbing.

Boom flips scum: I lynch UP.
Boom flips town: I lynch Ninja.

I don't follow this.
if boom flips town, ninja is scum for being defended by a townie?
it seems your case on boom is contingent on ninja flip, rather than the other way around.
I agree with your thoughts on UP though, he hasn't been around, and I think that's a good point. I still fail to see how a boom flip tells you anything about UP though.

 

[ranmaru]

It doesn't really. It's just that individually, UP is suspicious at this point in the game state. So Boom flipping scum gives us space to lynch UP. I haven't really looked at their connections that much.

If boom flips town, then I have to go back to the drawing board and lynch Ninja.

 

[ranmaru]

Eh I feel bad for making Jackrito my top scumread last time I played with them. Time to non-conspicuously change my RVS vote without drawing any attention to myself whatsoever because that's obviously the best move in the early stages of D1.

##Unvote

##Vote Sabrar

Didn't like their opener

##Unvote
##BoomFrog

Hm, let’s try this. No reasoning atm is intentional.