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Official Nintendo Switch Discussion Thread

N3ON

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Given how far away KH3's release is, and given that by that time the Switch's reception will be clear, I think we'll probably get KH3 on the Switch if the system proves to be a notable success. Given the supposed ease of porting and the sizeable install base, of which many have an affinity for KH, it just makes sense.

That said, if the Switch's reception is poor to even middling, I wouldn't hold my breath.

Personally I really hope KH3 and FF7 both come to the Switch, but should they not it's not like I'm going to pass up playing them on the PS4.
 

The Smash Nerd II.0.

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Given how far away KH3's release is, and given that by that time the Switch's reception will be clear, I think we'll probably get KH3 on the Switch if the system proves to be a notable success. Given the supposed ease of porting and the sizeable install base, of which many have an affinity for KH, it just makes sense.

That said, if the Switch's reception is poor to even middling, I wouldn't hold my breath.

Personally I really hope KH3 and FF7 both come to the Switch, but should they not it's not like I'm going to pass up playing them on the PS4.
You mean FF VII Remake.
 

Mario & Sonic Guy

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It sounds like a few people received early copies of the Nintendo Switch system. However, I'd rather not talk about it, since Nintendo will more than likely be hunting down those videos.
 

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It sounds like a few people received early copies of the Nintendo Switch system. However, I'd rather not talk about it, since Nintendo will more than likely be hunting down those videos.
The video did clear one of my concern is that if you will be able to change the system language or not. Looks like in the video you can have the option to change language and region. Not sure if the setting are permanent or not.
 

Mario & Sonic Guy

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On another subject, a new video reveals the amount of memory that some of the Nintendo Switch titles will use when purchased digitally.


A couple people seem to think that Nintendo does a poor job with compressing its games. However, it's vital to keep in mind that even the strongest compression formats won't reduce file size very much if the compressed contents are high quality.
 

Weeman

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The Switch will cost 1.5x as much on México. :104:
Good thing BotW will come out on Wii U too, i'm just hoping it's not much of a downgrade from the Switch version.
 

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The Switch will cost 1.5x as much on México. :104:
Good thing BotW will come out on Wii U too, i'm just hoping it's not much of a downgrade from the Switch version.
According to reports, the retail versions run much better than the preview versions (no surprise there).

Still, the Wii U does have the fog issue.
 

Weeman

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According to reports, the retail versions run much better than the preview versions (no surprise there).

Still, the Wii U does have the fog issue.
I'm just gonna be a hipster and say the fog will help immersion by keeping the mystery :096:
 

N3ON

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So what software will you all be picking up at launch? Right now I think I'm going to stick to BotW and Shovel Knight. No surprises for the former and never played the latter, looking forward to jumping in, even with the price hike.

I'd also like to pick up Bomberman; it'd be nice to show some support for the series and the character and Konami not being total clowns, but I just don't think I can justify paying like 70 dollars for a relatively straightforward Bomberman at this point in time. Especially with all the other Switch expenses. I'll hope to pick it up if and when it gets an eventual price cut.
 

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So what software will you all be picking up at launch? Right now I think I'm going to stick to BotW and Shovel Knight. No surprises for the former and never played the latter, looking forward to jumping in, even with the price hike.

I'd also like to pick up Bomberman; it'd be nice to show some support for the series and the character and Konami not being total clowns, but I just don't think I can justify paying like 70 dollars for a relatively straightforward Bomberman at this point in time. Especially with all the other Switch expenses. I'll hope to pick it up if and when it gets an eventual price cut.
I can't afford the Switch at launch, but if I could.

I'd probably pick up...

  • Breath of the Wild
  • I am Setsuna
  • Shovel Knight
  • World of Goo
  • Bomberman
 

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I'll probably buy the Switch late next month unless I saved enough money to get it sooner. As for what games I'll be getting of the ones coming out at launch:

  • The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - If I decide to pull the plug on the Wii U, then I'm definitely getting the Switch version.
  • Shovel Knight - I didn't put much time on the Wii U version of the game. Never finished it. Maybe I'll give it another chance with the Switch version if I can.
  • Super Bomberman R - Never played a Bomberman game before. This would be the first.
  • I Am Setsuna - I'm probably gonna get this for the PS4 instead. I've seen the trailer for it a while back and it looks like something I could be interested in trying out.
 
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Mario & Sonic Guy

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It sounds like the Joy-Cons have a signal problem, based on a GameXplain video that I saw earlier. That could be a problem for the people who have pre-ordered the Nintendo Switch.
 

Strider_Bond00J

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So what software will you all be picking up at launch? Right now I think I'm going to stick to BotW and Shovel Knight. No surprises for the former and never played the latter, looking forward to jumping in, even with the price hike.

I'd also like to pick up Bomberman; it'd be nice to show some support for the series and the character and Konami not being total clowns, but I just don't think I can justify paying like 70 dollars for a relatively straightforward Bomberman at this point in time. Especially with all the other Switch expenses. I'll hope to pick it up if and when it gets an eventual price cut.
For me, I think I'll be satisfied with
Breath of the Wild
Shovel Knight
World of Goo (Maybe)

I guess I'll just have to wait and see what's available on the e-Shop on launch day, and if it's cheap enough alongside maybe a $15 Aus eShop card, I might get it. But Breath of the Wild should keep me going for a while, and I can still bounce around to other systems as well
 

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So I got a Switch on launch and played it this weekend, just wanna share some things for people on the fence.

  • Don't go in expecting a ton of stuff to do.
In my opinion the weakest part of the console, no apps or features. No Netflix, Twitch, Spotify, HBO Now, etc... Kind of a bummer because the Switch design is literally perfect for multi-function device, I'm sure it will all come in time, but as of right now there's nothing except games, which brings me to my next point.

There's like, 4 games.

BotW, Bomberman, that racing game who's name alludes me, and I know there's something else... Point is, this isn't the strongest launch. Don't get me wrong, Breath of the Wild makes it worth it alone, but if you're not the biggest LoZ fan I'd suggest holding out for a couple months.

  • The OS is fast as ****.
How many people hated long load times? I did. I absolutely hated the Wii U's. Well guess what... Switch is like a complete 180 from that. I'm pretty sure it's faster than the PS4, which, as said, is fast as **** too. Takes like no time at all to start up your console, or game, and get to and fro the home menu is smooth as hell.

It's like the old days where you can just put in your game, and play in no time. It's great.

  • The controllers are... interesting
I guess this varies from person to person, so this is the kind of thing you just gotta try for yourself. The joy cons are actually fairly enjoyable imo, and I did the whole 2 player Bomberman 1 joy con each- thing, and I have to say it really wasn't bad at all.

One thing that bothers me way more than it probably should though is the analog stick placements. One's high, and one's low. This makes sense for the joy cons, because when they detach they need to be the same for each player, but for the pro controller it really bugs me.

Handheld, single player mode is just natural. Whatever your opinions are on this console will be as a whole, it's undeniable that as a pure handheld this thing is god tier.

  • Graphics are kind of a bummer
Take this how you will, but BotW does have noticeable frame-drops. It's gorgeous, but also obviously graphically inferior to other current gen console games. This may not bother you, but for those it does, be forewarned.

I personally hope they release an upgraded dock that can add a little fuel to the engine in a few years, but as of right now, graphically, it's definitely a step down from it's main competitors... as a home console.

Once again, as a handheld the thing is a ****in' game changer.

  • Battery is ok... for now
I mean, I haven't had any issues with it yet, though I haven't really put it to the test yet either.

One big thing to watch out for is the charging port is at the bottom. This is dumb, because if you're having a long play session with the stand out, you won't be able to charge. It's a really dumb oversight on Nintendo's part imo.

  • Online is to be determined
Haven't even bothered with the new(?) friend stuff yet, and I haven't tried Bomberman's online yet (I'd just get embarrassed, I'm terrible), so I really don't have strong insight on online right now anyway, but I do believe that the online and it's features won't really be able to be judged correctly until the big name games with the big communities come out anyway.

I will say this; I'm not really happy with what I've read. The voice chat system they have in place is trash, and the cheap price gives me the vibe that they just want to make a quick buck/break even, instead of making wholesale improvements. Hopefully I'm wrong about this.


  • I think it's worth it, or it will be.
It's honestly a pretty awesome experience, even with the lack of... really anything, it's still a really cool console, with a really unique feel about it.

Like I said before though, if you don't like LoZ, I'd recommend you wait. There's just not anything else to do outside of gaming right now, and the other games aren't really games that'll hold you over for very long unless you're like really into them.

The excitement of the new console features wear out very quickly I assure you, so don't expect to mindlessly entertain yourself by snapping on those joy cons a bunch of time, it doesn't make that snap noise every time irl.

If you're interested, I think next month will be the best time to get one. By then, you can get MK8D, and probably ARMS, and I'm sure more stuff will be added too. Along with some of the pre-existing games, that's a decent starting package.

If still on the fence, weigh your options. Like, if you're a graphic freak, that kinda likes Nintendo, but can live without them, don't jump in it just because of the hype, I doubt it will be worth it for you.
 
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Weeman

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There seems to be a considerable amount of technical issues to consider before buying the Switch at the moment.
From unfortunate cases of Joycon desync to tragic deaths by food poisoning.
Be careful of what you lick people.
 

N3ON

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So the Switch has, allegedly, sold 1.5 million units so far. That's pretty decent, but doesn't really mean a whole lot yet. The Wii U performed great in its first month and a half on the market.

What's really crazy is that BotW has basically a 90% attach rate. Like, that makes sense given the circumstances, and I'm sure down the line that ratio will decreasing many times over, but still... that's insane!

Source
 

Swamp Sensei

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So the Switch has, allegedly, sold 1.5 million units so far. That's pretty decent, but doesn't really mean a whole lot yet. The Wii U performed great in its first month and a half on the market.

What's really crazy is that BotW has basically a 90% attach rate. Like, that makes sense given the circumstances, and I'm sure down the line that ratio will decreasing many times over, but still... that's insane!

Source
Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't this done a lot better than the Wii U already?
 
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't this done a lot better than the Wii U already?
i think at launch within the same time period, the Wii U sold half a million copies but don't cite me on that.
 

N3ON

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't this done a lot better than the Wii U already?
Yes, for first week sales, it's done better. At 500k it's resting comfortably between the Wii's 600k first week and the Wii U's 400k first week. In NA. I don't have the data for Japan or Europe's first week Wii U numbers. But still, it's too early to tell how it will fare in the long run. These sales are definitely good, but it's nonetheless a waiting game. It'll be interesting to see if Nintendo can keep the momentum going.

As far as I know, that's correct.
http://www.ign.com/articles/2013/01/11/how-successful-was-the-wii-u-launch
According to this, Wii U sold 890,000 units during the first six weeks. The Switch has only been out for about a week and half and has sold roughly twice as much.
890k in NA. 636k in Japan. And probably some amount in Europe and remaining territories which pushed it past 2 mil. As the Switch is already at 1.5, it probably will be able to eclipse that. Part of that depends on stock. But that 890 number was just for NA.
 
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Reminder that WiiU sold 3.1 million in its first quarter, actually surpassing the Wii. Launch sales mean little to nothing when you've got a loyal fanbase of about 13 million people (number of WiiUs sold, and the number of 3DSs sold before the price cut).

It shouldn't be surprising that the Switch sells through its initial launch so quickly, ESPECIALLY when you consider that the Wii was understocked, and you couldn't get your hands on one for a whole year almost. So that's also something to bear in mind when talking about launch sales as well. Nintendo bragging about the Switch sales surpassing Wii doesn't sound so amazing when you contextualize it with the fact that Wii was horrendously understocked. Regardless, what matters is longevity, and how it manages to hold up in the long run. No doubt the Switch will reach out to around 10 millionish Nintendo fans. It's what happens after all the fans get their hands on one that really matters. Especially with hardware issues going viral. How are you gonna market this to non-loyalist fans who see the PS4 and such as cheaper and more appealing alternatives (more games, better graphics, better network, no friend codes, better online store, multimedia, more power, bigger install base, AAA titles, etc, etc...)?

Current Worldwide Switch sales sit at 1.5 mil according to The Know:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3X-DduxhSdA
 

mario123007

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Reminder that WiiU sold 3.1 million in its first quarter, actually surpassing the Wii. Launch sales mean little to nothing when you've got a loyal fanbase of about 13 million people (number of WiiUs sold, and the number of 3DSs sold before the price cut).
Yeah, but most of those will move on to Switch when more games comes out. Which is also why I think it is better to buy the console on holiday.
It shouldn't be surprising that the Switch sells through its initial launch so quickly, ESPECIALLY when you consider that the Wii was understocked, and you couldn't get your hands on one for a whole year almost. So that's also something to bear in mind when talking about launch sales as well. Nintendo bragging about the Switch sales surpassing Wii doesn't sound so amazing when you contextualize it with the fact that Wii was horrendously understocked. Regardless, what matters is longevity, and how it manages to hold up in the long run. No doubt the Switch will reach out to around 10 millionish Nintendo fans. It's what happens after all the fans get their hands on one that really matters. Especially with hardware issues going viral. How are you gonna market this to non-loyalist fans who see the PS4 and such as cheaper and more appealing alternatives (more games, better graphics, better network, no friend codes, better online store, multimedia, more power, bigger install base, AAA titles, etc, etc...)?
To more additional facts, Switch sells around 313.7k on it's opening week sales in Japan, which is slightly below PS4's initial launch sales. Which is pretty impressive when you know that Switch launches on a non holiday date. Wii U, PS4, Wii were all released around the holiday in most parts of the world. This week Switch still sells better than PS4 in Japan. What is more not of a surprise is that The Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild has 89% attach rate. It's still impressive that Switch can sold that much with only one big game. With more games coming like Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Splatoon 2, Super Mario Odyssey etc coming this year will sure sell the Switch in a well momentum. And when you say Wii was understocked, Switch was also in a similar position.
Switch is a two consoles in one, a home console that you can take on the go is the way that can attract those non-loyalists. Sure Switch is more better as a handheld than as a home console, but playing AAA games on the go is really impressive.
However, Switch still has problems to deal with, problems like lack of virtual consoles, web browsers, mulitimedia will comes eventually. Others like Joy-Con sync issues, dock scratching the console, I hope those can be solved as well.
 
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mario123007

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Nintendo upping Switch production from 8 to 16 mil this FY. Best of luck to them, they must have higher expectations after this launch.
http://neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1353192

It'd be kind of funny and kind of sad if the Switch surpasses the Wii U in its first year on the market.
This is a good news for us since this means that we can get Switch without need to worrying about supply issues. But I also think they shouldn't just rush out so many units immediately, they should be giving out units at full throttle when games like Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Splatoon 2, Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (If they really did release it this year), and Super Mario Odyssey. That way they can surpass the Wii U number quickly. And just wondering why is it sad since isn't this what we all hope that Switch sells better than the Wii U?
 
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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4059091-realistic-look-nintendo-switch-sales


Similarly, comparisons to extreme outliers such as Wii's success or Wii U's failure should be treated as such. Switch won't be a failure if it sells less than 102 million units, and it won't be a success if it sells more than 14 million units. If you want a sensible target, somewhere between N64's 33 million units and 3DS's 65 million units would seem to be a logical range.

As for valuing Nintendo as a long-term investment, the performance of Switch in 2017 is almost irrelevant.

On the upside, we won't know if it's really shaping up to be a Wii or DS-style success until it's burned through the 10 million-odd core Nintendo fans who will buy any Nintendo hardware.

On the downside, if Switch is a Wii U-style failure, Nintendo will have to seriously rethink its business, most likely becoming a software-only company. That would unlock the IP many consider to be its most valuable asset into the entire games market. It would certainly be a high risk, high reward strategy but one that would chime with wider industry trends.
Yet these are the extremes. Instead, aside from studying the usual fundamentals, the best short-term pointers to hone sentiment about Nintendo's financial performance will be:

  • How are Nintendo's mobile games performing, especially in Japan?
  • Are third party publishers like Activision Blizzard, EA and Take-Two increasing or decreasing their support for Switch, especially in terms of their key IP?
  • Is there any evidence Switch appeals outside of Nintendo's core audience?
And despite everything, always remember the biggest implication for long-term sales will be user behavior.

In other words, no matter how Nintendo is marketing the device, do you think Switch will be mainly used as a home console or a handheld console?
 
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PF9

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What would you think of a Switch-only Guitar Hero game featuring rock-oriented tracks from the SSB series?
 

PF9

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I'd also like a Star Fox game on the Switch with Star Trek and Star Wars DLC.
 

N3ON

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Interesting information.

These predictions so far have been roughly in line with the 3DS. I wonder how close they'll end up being.
 
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Interesting information.

These predictions so far have been roughly in line with the 3DS. I wonder how close they'll end up being.
Saw that a couple days ago.

I'd very surprised to see it sell 30 million by 2018 end tbh. Like I posted above, it's hard to make any solid predictions when you consider you've got a loyal fanbase of roughly 10 million, who will things purely on brand name alone. Until the Switch sells past that number, it'll be very difficult to tell its actual appeal, reach and momentum, with the nonNintendo faithful. There's a ton of bad press circling the web in regard to the Switch having faulty units or malfunctions. CrowbCat's video is already at over 9 millions views, and now you have that whole "bendgate" stuff going on, with many people reporting the Switch starting to bend due to heat issues, just one month in. Now I know this is only a small % of people, but it's still bad press, and it's quite viral.

As far as sales go, we see a lot of reports saying "it's outselling the PS4 (in Japan)" and it genuinely feels like sponsored content, because it's manipulating data to push a specific narrative (and I wouldn't put it past Reggie and NoA to pay certain press outlets to put out certain stories that frame the Switch in a positive light). A quick look at the numbers will show that it's in fact UNDERSELLING both the 3DS and WiiU in Japan. In the same vein, it's actually doing very poorly in the UK, and not so hot in the rest of Europe, and we still have no hard data for North America. We don't even know for sure if its burned through the initial shipment of 2 million yet. Which is interesting to note, because the WiiU in fact did really well for the first 3 months, selling well over 3 million, and then tanked horribly. 3DS at the same time had a very rocky first two (?) years until Nintendo did a price cut, pushed out a ton of games for it, and marketed it heavily with tons of bundles and games. I don't see the Switch arriving to 3DS numbers for reasons I listed prior ITT (handhelds going out of style to mobile phones and tablets), but I also don't see it getting anywhere near that without a similar strategy that managed to salvage the 3DS.

As of right now, Switch has no bundles, and no worthwhile games aside from Zelda... which is also on WiiU. There is honestly little to look forward to on the horizon for anyone wanting to buy a Switch (especially if they bought a WiiU), and we have no reports of the promised and rumored 3rd party AAA games (like Skyrim and Dark Souls), which means I think it's safe to say that aside from the odd port here and there, those promised 3rd party devs have bailed, yet again, and we'll be seeing the Switch miss out on all the heavy hitters this year.

Zelda won't be enough to carry the Switch throughout the year, and ports of WiiU games and ARMs/Splatoon won't be enough to entice people over games like Red Dead 2, Persona 5, Cyberpunk 2077, etc... People will play what their friends are playing, like they always do, and Zelda is on par in the mainstream eye with the rest of the titles I just listed. And if you had to make a choice over what to invest your time an money into... well, it's not a difficult one. Also, consider that the PS4 actually got more press during the Switch's launch month than the Switch itself, simply because of all the games that it's been dropping. That doesn't bode well for the Switch and its momentum when it has a year-long dry spell of heavy hitters until Mario drops, while the the PS4 doesn't seem like it's gonna slow down any time soon, with FF7R, Ace Combat 7, Death Stranding, and a bunch of other games coming soon, that I'm certain won't make their way onto the Switch (especially since it's been confirmed to be a Tegra X1, which can't handle many modern games).

My two cents.
 
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mario123007

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As far as sales go, we see a lot of reports saying "it's outselling the PS4 (in Japan)" and it genuinely feels like sponsored content, because it's manipulating data to push a specific narrative (and I wouldn't put it past Reggie and NoA to pay certain press outlets to put out certain stories that frame the Switch in a positive light). A quick look at the numbers will show that it's in fact UNDERSELLING both the 3DS and WiiU in Japan. In the same vein, it's actually doing very poorly in the UK, and not so hot in the rest of Europe, and we still have no hard data for North America. We don't even know for sure if its burned through the initial shipment of 2 million yet. Which is interesting to note, because the WiiU in fact did really well for the first 3 months, selling well over 3 million, and then tanked horribly. 3DS at the same time had a very rocky first two (?) years until Nintendo did a price cut, pushed out a ton of games for it, and marketed it heavily with tons of bundles and games. I don't see the Switch arriving to 3DS numbers for reasons I listed prior ITT (handhelds going out of style to mobile phones and tablets), but I also don't see it getting anywhere near that without a similar strategy that managed to salvage the 3DS.
It is outselling PS4 despite with shortages if you look at the chart on Mynintendonews website. Also you can't say it is a manipulating data if you don't have any solid proof. And I won't be surprise if the sales start to drop in non huge game release. Splatoon 2, and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe will sure push the sales even more. The Switch will definitely not have long droughts compare to Wii U (At least for this year), and again saying that mobile phones and tablets is still yet to be seen.

Edit: Recently the NA total sales are in, Nintendo Switch was the best selling console in March, not a surprise there and it is a good start. What a surprsie is that Zelda Botw is over 100% attach rate.

As of right now, Switch has no bundles, and no worthwhile games aside from Zelda... which is also on WiiU. There is honestly little to look forward to on the horizon for anyone wanting to buy a Switch (especially if they bought a WiiU), and we have no reports of the promised and rumored 3rd party AAA games (like Skyrim and Dark Souls), which means I think it's safe to say that aside from the odd port here and there, those promised 3rd party devs have bailed, yet again, and we'll be seeing the Switch miss out on all the heavy hitters this year.
Once again, this isn't set in stone until E3 2017, if there really isn't huge third party titles coming to the Switch, that could then be a problem. Nevertheless, I don't think that lack of huge third party games for Switch will be the end for the console. And even without those, Switch will still have awesome indie games, JRPGs etc. in the future.
Zelda won't be enough to carry the Switch throughout the year, and ports of WiiU games and ARMs/Splatoon won't be enough to entice people over games like Red Dead 2, Persona 5, Cyberpunk 2077, etc... People will play what their friends are playing, like they always do, and Zelda is on par in the mainstream eye with the rest of the titles I just listed. And if you had to make a choice over what to invest your time an money into... well, it's not a difficult one. Also, consider that the PS4 actually got more press during the Switch's launch month than the Switch itself, simply because of all the games that it's been dropping. That doesn't bode well for the Switch and its momentum when it has a year-long dry spell of heavy hitters until Mario drops, while the the PS4 doesn't seem like it's gonna slow down any time soon, with FF7R, Ace Combat 7, Death Stranding, and a bunch of other games coming soon, that I'm certain won't make their way onto the Switch (especially since it's been confirmed to be a Tegra X1, which can't handle many modern games).
Zelda did push the Switch sales a lot in March, and probably still does in April. No one can deny that Zelda Botw is what drives the Switch sales.
Different strokes for different folks? Many people will enjoy games on PS4, PC, Xbox One, but will also enjoy those games on the Switch. And PS4 lacks the portability, most people who doesn't have much time in their house might choose Switch because of it's portability since despite it may not have tons of third party games for now, you still have a device that can play AAA games on the go. And saying Switch can't handle many modern games... I'm guessing you are saying those PS4, Xbox One games right? We already knew this for a while, and it really depends on those game's developer, and most of all it depends on which kind of games. If it's games like FF XV, Mass Effect, sure I don't think they will run on Switch, but games like Snake Pass shows that Switch can still run fine compare to PS4.
 
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N3ON

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So the Switch has sold 906k units in the US in its first month (not total NA units - Canada doesn't matter), with BotW... somehow... having a >100% attach rate at 925k units, lmao.

Worldwide the Switch has sold 2.4 million units in March, which is 400k above the initial allotment Nintendo was set to provide
. SuperData's new forecast for this year is 7.2 million, rising from the previous 5 million.

I'm not saying the Switch will reach the previously stated figure of 16 mil by March 2018, but I do think 7.2 is a conservative estimate for this year. A holiday with Mario, and maybe Pokemon and Smash (plus the games that will have already released), mixed with the reception so far leads me to believe it will be in excess of that prediction. Though by how much, I can't really say.
 
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So the Switch has sold 906k units in the US in its first month (not total NA units - Canada doesn't matter), with BotW... somehow... having a >100% attach rate at 925k units, lmao.

Worldwide the Switch has sold 2.4 million units in March, which is 400k above the initial allotment Nintendo was set to provide
. SuperData's new forecast for this year is 7.2 million, rising from the previous 5 million.

I'm not saying the Switch will reach the previously stated figure of 16 mil by March 2018, but I do think 7.2 is a conservative estimate for this year. A holiday with Mario, and maybe Pokemon and Smash (plus the games that will have already released), mixed with the reception so far leads me to believe it will be in excess of that prediction. Though by how much, I can't really say.
I won't be suprised that the sales will have a significant decline this month, but I think we will see sales boost when Splatoon 2 comes out.
It's all comes to E3, if they annouce more big games I think it will have the chance.

Edit:
I'd very surprised to see it sell 30 million by 2018 end tbh. Like I posted above, it's hard to make any solid predictions when you consider you've got a loyal fanbase of roughly 10 million, who will things purely on brand name alone. Until the Switch sells past that number, it'll be very difficult to tell its actual appeal, reach and momentum, with the nonNintendo faithful. There's a ton of bad press circling the web in regard to the Switch having faulty units or malfunctions. CrowbCat's video is already at over 9 millions views, and now you have that whole "bendgate" stuff going on, with many people reporting the Switch starting to bend due to heat issues, just one month in. Now I know this is only a small % of people, but it's still bad press, and it's quite viral.
I personally don't really know if it will reach to 30 million by 2018 or not, this brings back to what I and most people have said many times: the games and the third party support. I am setting high expectations for this year's E3 2017 than ever before, back then I hope for Nintendo games and surprises, now I really demand for more big and hype games announce during E3. If not or not enough then I will be worried about Switch's future.
How are you sure those 10 (13 at most) million (Wii U?) fanbase are loyal? I'm not saying nobody cares about Wii U, but I guess most of the users buy Wii U just for the sake of playing awesome Nintendo games, and buy other consoles of course. And I m pretty sure that Switch will past 10 million soon enough.

Ok... I need to get this out because you putting up the "bad Nintendo Switch press", "Nintendo Switch defects video" again.
And let me tell ya, most of those issues appeared in CrowbCat's video had already been solved, or can be repaired. The only "viral" problems are just dock scratch screen, kind of suck Joy Con strap, and last but not least the Left Joy Co desync issue. But even that is fixed within March.
The bendgate issue is mostly solved as well, and there are many explanations on why the console warped, at first I was worried. But seeing more explanation, it makes sense. Switch has metal plate inside so when the outer plastic bends, the plate can protect the inner parts. And most of them said it doesn't effect the console's function.
And those issues in the video may seem a lot, but like you said this is only a small %... if so... then your first previous saying "ton of bad press circling in the web" sounds a bit contradicting in my opinion. So are you saying that sometime Internet shouldn't always be taken seriously right?
 
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