Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Hadokeyblade]

Anyway, on the topic of Jonesy and his many different variants, I was looking through some stuff the other day and I stumbled upon this apparently recent new version of him, and uh
View attachment 383297
why he got the Ryoma Nagare fit

The current storyline is like a spy battle involving Peter griffin and Solid Snake.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Though say want you want about how "good" or "bad" the speculation scene is predicting characters WITHOUT some sort of leak (not that good, by the way), it can't be denied that when it comes to Pokémon specifically, the fandom is straight cheeks on their track record and a Pokémon being propped up as likely or inevitable is a quick way to add it to the "it's dead in the water" list.

The only time people got close was with Decidueye and that was only because it was considered for the role and edged out by Incineroar. And they were right for the wrong reasons, going for "Grass starter" instead of Sakurai going for "mmm archer birb".

 

[NintenRob]

I remember back in the Smash 4 day, there were quite a few people who dismissed the idea of a new Pokemon in general. That we would just get the "Brawl 4 + Mewtwo." That X and Y had no new standout Pokemon to add.


I use to advocate the idea of a Kalos Trainer, and while we obviously didn't get that. I immensely pleased when we got Greninja

 

[Ivander]

I mean, I'm not denying that the reasons for predicting Sceptile and Decidueye just for being "Grass Starters" is somewhat silly, but lately, it has been looking like Gamefreak has been putting quite a bunch of attention on it's Grass Starters after Greninja.
Not to say the other Starters are lackluster compared to them, but the Grass Starters since then have been getting increasingly focused on, between marketing and them once being very varied in the legs department to bipedal the next 3 times after Chesnaught.

 

[NintenRob]

Sceptile would have been sick though. It was quite prominent during the ORAS era and even became the most popular Hoenn starter

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Sceptile would have been sick though. It was quite prominent during the ORAS era and even became the most popular Hoenn starter

No? I'm fairly certain it's still Blaziken.

 

[dream1ng]

......beg pardon?


Can we not be attempting to rewrite history today, please?

He was. Decidueye and Mimikyu moreso, then him. Once Mimikyu was deconfirmed, he was probably second. And Lycanroc was there too. I didn't say he was the most. But top three absolutely makes him among the most regularly predicted for his series.

It's not as if discussion of Incineroar was entirely absent, it had crossed my mind, but Decidueye was definitely the frontrunner until Vergeben opened his mouth. I agree with the general sentiment though, I think we get too involved in the weeds of "the Smash community can't predict anything" to neglect all the stuff people generally did get right. It's kind of a tired thing to say at this point.

I didn't say he was the most. I said he was among the regularly predicted characters for his series. Which he was.

Though of course that's always going to be scattered, most people anticipated Isabelle was going to be an echo fighter so it was surprising to many (not me) that she was treated as a completely new character.

Yeah but speculation for the post-4 Smash roster didn't start at the point we knew echoes were going to be a thing...

 

[Guynamednelson]

I remember back in the Smash 4 day, there were quite a few people who dismissed the idea of a new Pokemon in general. That we would just get the "Brawl 4 + Mewtwo." That X and Y had no new standout Pokemon to add.

I was already somewhat expecting Greninja due to how many people had it as their favorite Gen 6 Pokemon, if not Sylveon. I didn't know it would've been chosen long before XY were released at the time.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

He was. Decidueye and Mimikyu moreso, then him. Once Mimikyu was deconfirmed, he was probably second. And Lycanroc was there too. I didn't say he was the most. But top three absolutely makes him among the most regularly predicted for his series.

No Incineroar was not.
I was literally there for it all. The idea wasn't even entertained by the speculation collective until Vergeben spoke up.
Only THEN was Incineroar actually seen as a candidate and even then there was heavy pushback.

Do NOT try to rewrite history on this. I watched the books be written with my own eyes.


Furthermore, if it took someone leaking the character for that character to be put on the speculation wheel, it does not count as people getting it "right" for obvious reasons.

 

[NintenRob]

No? I'm fairly certain it's still Blaziken.

It's bloody close but Sceptile did actually manage to edge out in front of Blaziken for the Pokemon 2020 poll

 

[Louie G.]

Yeah but speculation for the post-4 Smash roster didn't start at the point we knew echoes were going to be a thing...

Right, but before that she wasn't being taken especially seriously. Correct me if I'm wrong and misremembering, but I feel like the introduction of echo fighters are the reason a lot of the community humored the possibility of more Animal Crossing to begin with. To date, they're very content to say Animal Crossing is fine where it is because Villager represents it perfectly fine on his own.

Like in my eyes, Isabelle was literally as obvious as Inkling from the jump because she was being marketed like crazy. And I think there were plenty of other people who felt similarly, but there were a lot of people who wanted to take the easy way out with Animal Crossing because they believed we had already took advantage of everything it had to offer. You still see people saying Tom Nook would be too similar to Villager and Isabelle to be worth adding as a unique character, so if this stigma hasn't gone away by now I can't imagine it was that much different six years ago.

 

[fogbadge]

I mean, I'm not denying that the reasons for predicting Sceptile and Decidueye just for being "Grass Starters" is somewhat silly, but lately, it has been looking like Gamefreak has been putting quite a bunch of attention on it's Grass Starters after Greninja.
Not to say the other Starters are lackluster compared to them, but the Grass Starters since then have been getting increasingly focused on, between marketing and them once being very varied in the legs department to bipedal the next 3 times after Chesnaught.

in fairness rowlet was the most popular starter in the alolan trio back then at least which i think fuelled speculation. plus decidueye was still popular in his on right so it wasn't just for the sake of having a grass starter

 

[Noipoi]

Member when Incineroar (along with Ken) became the avatar of the box theory, which then became the symbolic enemy of the Grinch and all his false promises?

Speculation is wild

 

[SPEN18]

Currently they're pretty close in popularity it seems, but historically Blaziken was way ahead of Sceptile, and also the recipient of pretty blatant favoritism over the other Hoenn starters up until ORAS.

 

[BuckleyTim]

I never fully believed in le Grunch, but the fact that I still gave it the time of day all those years ago still makes me feel like a dupe. Either way, they don't make hoaxes like they used to... nowadays we'd just get a blurry pic of an ai-generated fake render that would immediately be assumed to be ai-generated because why wouldn't we.

 

[Ivander]

Speculation is wild

For better or for worse in some cases.

 

[Noipoi]

The lack of a Pokémon really made me iffy on the Grinch leak. I mean, come on.

It obviously wouldn’t have made the thing real anyway. But if they had included Tony the Tiger I would've been more convinced.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

in fairness rowlet was the most popular starter in the alolan trio back then at least which i think fuelled speculation. plus decidueye was still popular in his on right so it wasn't just for the sake of having a grass starter

It was still primarily because Grass starter.

People were pushing for Rowlet's final evolution before anyone knew what a Decidueye was. Literally just because "we need a fully evolved Grass starter" and they used Rowlet's immediate popularity as an excuse.

Same thing happened with "Grookey's final evolution" before Cinderace drowned everything out in regards to Rillaboom and what I've seen with "Sprigatito's final evolution" before Meowscarada was even a thing.

 

[SPEN18]

I will say again that one of the key factors in the believability of the Grinch leak was the take that bringing back all the vets was way easier than it actually was, to the extreme degree that we could get a normal number of newcomers even with EiH. That was the only way for a last-minute blowout of characters to make sense: if the heavier asset reuse from 4 and the fact that even non-4 vets had their concepts already worked out made everything a snap. Of course, we did not get a normal number of newcomers in base Ult, and so the whole Grinch situation now only amplifies the cautionary tale of underestimating how much work goes into returning content every game.

 

[dream1ng]

No Incineroar was not.
I was literally there for it all. The idea wasn't even entertained by the speculation collective until Vergeben spoke up.
Only THEN was Incineroar actually seen as a candidate and even then there was heavy pushback.

Do NOT try to rewrite history on this. I watched the books be written with my own eyes.


Furthermore, if it took someone leaking the character for that character to be put on the speculation wheel, it does not count as people getting it "right" for obvious reasons.

Decidueye was obviously the favorite, but Incineroar was among the more speculated of the Pokemon.

Here's are a few polls from before Vergeben's leak:

Decidueye	320
Sceptile	45
Mimikyu	30
New Pokemon Trainer	30
Incineroar	27

Results from Mega Smash Poll (Switch Edition)

Back in March, we launched our Mega Smash Poll 2018 and before E3 we wanted to reveal all the newcomer’s fans wanted.

sourcegaming.info

This poll has pretty much the same ranking for the Pokemon characters (no new Trainer, Mimikyu is lower)

https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/89n2gq/official_rsmashbros_smash_switch_character/

(Decidueye is #13, Incineroar is second of the Pokemon)

https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/9egrty/unofficial_smash_ballot_2018_results/

I'm not saying he was the most. That obviously was Decidueye. Incineroar is getting around the same as Mimikyu on a lot of this stuff, and he was also absolutely among the more speculated of the Pokemon. I'll be honest though, I did forget about Sceptile, because I had just put all the non Gen 7s out of my mind as just not happening.

 

[RileyXY1]

Member when Incineroar (along with Ken) became the avatar of the box theory, which then became the symbolic enemy of the Grinch and all his false promises?

Speculation is wild

Pretty much. The reason why people believed the Grinch Leak because they wanted it to be real. To them, there was some proof that there will be more newcomers than just Ken and Incineroar, and they were all mostly fan favorites. It had Geno, Isaac, and Banjo and Kazooie, who were all majorly established fan favorite characters, Ken and Shadow, who were the biggest requests for new Echo Fighters, the Chorus Kids, the final characters implicated in the infamous "Gematsu Leak" to not be in the game yet, and Mach Rider, who was a fan favorite choice for the "retro rep". I always saw the Grinch Leak as a "too good to be true" leak, especially once the final base game Smash Direct was announced. I knew right then and there that the Grinch Leak was dead, because how could you cram 5 newcomer reveal trailers in one direct?

 

[fogbadge]

It was still primarily because Grass starter.

People were pushing for Rowlet's final evolution before anyone knew what a Decidueye was. Literally just because "we need a fully evolved Grass starter" and they used Rowlet's immediate popularity as an excuse.

Same thing happened with "Grookey's final evolution" before Cinderace drowned everything out in regards to Rillaboom and what I've seen with "Sprigatito's final evolution" before Meowscarada was even a thing.

alright then

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

So two polls....where Incineroar got comparatively small numbers of votes....means it was among the most speculated of the Pokémon?

I can't. I just can't. Dropping this conversation before I have an aneurysm.


I guess we can say Blastoise was among the most speculated Pokémon since it scored higher than Incineroar on one of those two wishlist polls.

 

[RileyXY1]

So two polls....where Incineroar got comparatively small numbers of votes....means it was among the most speculated of the Pokémon?

I can't. I just can't.

As previously mentioned, Decidueye sucked up all the speculation time when it came to the Gen 7 Pokémon until Vergeben happened and claimed that Incineroar would be the new Pokémon. Only then did Incineroar's stock shoot up.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

As previously mentioned, Decidueye sucked up all the speculation time when it came to the Gen 7 Pokémon until Vergeben happened and claimed that Incineroar would be the new Pokémon. Only then did Incineroar's stock shoot up.

Gee, it's like that's EXACTLY WHAT I SAID.

 

[Arcanir]

Pretending like Pokemon itself wasn't ripping of Dragon Quest.


If the threat of Palworld does anything to get Pokemon to get off it's ass and up it's game, then it's excitence is welcomed.

Right, because what's going to get Pokemon 'off its ass' is an early access not even a week old game that infamously is stealing assets not only from Pokemon itself, but also maybe even fan artists.

I mean, I'm not denying that the reasons for predicting Sceptile and Decidueye just for being "Grass Starters" is somewhat silly, but lately, it has been looking like Gamefreak has been putting quite a bunch of attention on it's Grass Starters after Greninja.
Not to say the other Starters are lackluster compared to them, but the Grass Starters since then have been getting increasingly focused on, between marketing and them once being very varied in the legs department to bipedal the next 3 times after Chesnaught.

The only Grass Starter I'd say was given full preferential treatment was Meowscarada. Decidueye was promoted, but Incineroar was still competitive at worst, and Rillaboom was far behind Cinderace and Inteleon surpassed it once they realized Japan adored it.

Decidueye was obviously the favorite, but Incineroar was among the more speculated of the Pokemon.

Here's are a few polls from before Vergeben's leak:

Decidueye	320
Sceptile	45
Mimikyu	30
New Pokemon Trainer	30
Incineroar	27

Results from Mega Smash Poll (Switch Edition)

Back in March, we launched our Mega Smash Poll 2018 and before E3 we wanted to reveal all the newcomer’s fans wanted.

sourcegaming.info

This poll has pretty much the same ranking for the Pokemon characters (no new Trainer, Mimikyu is lower)

https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/89n2gq/official_rsmashbros_smash_switch_character/

(Decidueye is #13, Incineroar is second of the Pokemon)

https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/9egrty/unofficial_smash_ballot_2018_results/

I'm not saying he was the most. That obviously was Decidueye. Incineroar is getting around the same as Mimikyu on a lot of this stuff, and he was also absolutely among the more speculated of the Pokemon. I'll be honest though, I did forget about Sceptile, because I had just put all the non Gen 7s out of my mind as just not happening.

I feel you're focusing too much on the placings here. The first poll may have him as fifth, but it's a very clearly distant fifth as he's behind Decidueye by nearly 300 votes while still behind three others. The second poll is similar as it lost to Decideye by around 9% of the total votes, and the context around the time has it also follow Mimikyu (and a few other Pokemon like Bewear) being confirmed as a Pokeball which obviously hurt its standing.

Both still paint it as a not considered likely or popular choice for Ultimate, especially when compared to Decidueye, and that is reflective of the discussion around the time as Incineroar was generally behind its peers before the competition thinned out and Verge gave him a boost.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

The logic is like:

You have a poll on which animal people like more as a pet.
Dog gets the most votes by a wide margin.
You get a couple options like cat or ferret that don't get close to much votes as dog but still decent

Then you get like gerbil with like measly 5% of the votes.
And then claim "gerbils are among the most favored pets of all".

 

[Gorgonzales]

I never fully believed in le Grunch, but the fact that I still gave it the time of day all those years ago still makes me feel like a dupe. Either way, they don't make hoaxes like they used to... nowadays we'd just get a blurry pic of an ai-generated fake render that would immediately be assumed to be ai-generated because why wouldn't we.

Oh my gosh, you just made me realize that we're about to enter the first Smash reveal/pre-release cycle to have AI play a factor in making fake leaks and hoaxes.

This makes me sad. At least with previous hoaxes, you could tell that at least genuine human thought was put into them. The fact that AI has become so convincing nowadays makes me concerned for the future of Smash speculation when it comes to debunking fake images.

...But then again, a lot of people did try to convince themselves that Shulk was a photoshopped Little Mac... so I suppose all we can do is wait and see how it all plays out. Might not be as bad as I'm anticipating.

 

[Noipoi]

Oh my gosh, you just made me realize that we're about to enter the first Smash reveal/pre-release cycle to have AI play a factor in making fake leaks and hoaxes.

This makes me sad. At least with previous hoaxes, you could tell that at least genuine human thought was put into them. The fact that AI has become so convincing nowadays makes me concerned for the future of Smash speculation when it comes to debunking fake images.

...But then again, a lot of people did try to convince themselves that Shulk was a photoshopped Little Mac... so I suppose all we can do is wait and see how it all plays out. Might not be as bad as I'm anticipating.

There's gonna be one image that looks so real that anyone who think it's fake will be publicly shamed and shunned from the community.

The fallout from that will be legendary.

 

[CannonStreak]

Oh my gosh, you just made me realize that we're about to enter the first Smash reveal/pre-release cycle to have AI play a factor in making fake leaks and hoaxes.

This makes me sad. At least with previous hoaxes, you could tell that at least genuine human thought was put into them. The fact that AI has become so convincing nowadays makes me concerned for the future of Smash speculation when it comes to debunking fake images.

...But then again, a lot of people did try to convince themselves that Shulk was a photoshopped Little Mac... so I suppose all we can do is wait and see how it all plays out. Might not be as bad as I'm anticipating.

At least they can't make AI videos or animation yet, right?

 

[fogbadge]

Surely we’ll be able to spot the AI program’s style?

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Just look at the fingers.

 

[Louie G.]

I'll confess that I bought into the Grinch Leak. Not even so much because of the visuals, which were flawed as several people pointed out at the time, but the strange circumstances surrounding it and the odd coincidental copyright renewals going on all around the same time outweighed the skepticism of the blurry photos for me. Definitely a little bit of optimism too, but it was pretty unbelievable in a vacuum. I suppose some of it could have been DLC?

The characters I really wanted to believe in were Chorus Kids and Mach Rider - the two that most other people were probably totally indifferent about. I felt a little betrayed that the leak targeted me so personally like that, and left me burnt for the second time when it came to Rhythm Heaven. But I wasn't too upset at any of the following reveals that day, just a bit numb LOL. Incineroar looked great and Piranha Plant got people talking so it fizzled out soon enough.

Honestly, it was just fun to be a part of it too. I don't even regret falling for it. Was probably one of the most hilarious and surprising rides that Smash speculation had taken me on thus far.

 

[Gorgonzales]

Just look at the fingers.

kid named character selection screen mock-up

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Surely we’ll be able to spot the AI program’s style?

If they try to fake an Atlus character getting in god help us all because Ai programs can mimic the Atlus artstyle perfectly.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Surely we’ll be able to spot the AI program’s style?

AI is really, really bad about fine details like text. An image saying Craaas Bamdicot is getting in would be a dead ringer.

 

[Ivander]

At least they can't make AI videos or animation yet, right?

They can, but right now, it's easy to tell since the characters, backgrounds and whatnot are often changing as the video goes on. But it's definitely getting better. I once saw a AI animation of that Misato character from Evangelion doing a dance and while it had problems, it was definitely far better than most AI animations.

Just look at the fingers.

If only it were that easy still.

Surely we’ll be able to spot the AI program’s style?

For the most part, yeah. AI definitely has art patterns that are still recognizable, but the problem comes regarding those who don't study and look at AI art on a regular basis to find the patterns.

 

[fogbadge]

If they try to fake an Atlus character getting in god help us all because Ai programs can mimic the Atlus artstyle perfectly.

Really? Ive seen a few things that are meant to mimic styles perfectly and there’s usually something wrong

AI is really, really bad about fine details like text. An image saying Craaas Bamdicot is getting in would be a dead ringer.

do you mean dead giveaway?

 

[CannonStreak]

They can, but right now, it's easy to tell since the characters are often changing as the video goes on. But it's definitely getting better. I once saw a AI animation of that Misato character from Evangelion doing a dance and while it had problems, it was definitely far better than most AI animations.

Very scary, if you ask me, in more ways than one.

Let's just hope they don't get too advanced enough to do convincing videos of Smash Bros. newcomers by the time the next Smash Bros. is revealed.

 

[fogbadge]

They can, but right now, it's easy to tell since the characters, backgrounds and whatnot are often changing as the video goes on. But it's definitely getting better. I once saw a AI animation of that Misato character from Evangelion doing a dance and while it had problems, it was definitely far better than most AI animations.

If only it were that easy still.

For the most part, yeah. AI definitely has art patterns that are still recognizable, but the problem comes regarding those who don't study and look at AI art on a regular basis to find the patterns.

I always find it pretty clear. Maybe I’ve spent more time looking at AI art than I thought