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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

Swamp Sensei

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Swamp Sensei Swamp Sensei idk if i should tell you this but i think i see some mistakes regarding the order of the smash fighters chronological order in your signature
:ultduckhunt: is 1976 started as a gun toy
:ultsonic: is behind :ultyoshi:as his debut was Rad Mobile arcade as in game keychain before his actual game released
:ultbanjokazooie: is behind :ultsheik::ultyounglink::ultganondorf: as his debut was Diddy Kong Racing before his actual game released
:ultroy: is behind :ultsora: as his debut was smash melee before his actual game released
:ultdarksamus:is behind :ulttoonlink: as her debut was in metroid prime where she was born in the secret ending of the game
:ultsteve::ultzombie:are behind :ultbayonetta: as Minecraft was released publicly earlier

personally would prefer Bonus-kun from Galaxy Fight since he is a sandbag with an actual moveset
I'm using Smash's order for a lot of these debuts.
 

Wonder Smash

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Swamp Sensei Swamp Sensei idk if i should tell you this but i think i see some mistakes regarding the order of the smash fighters chronological order in your signature
:ultduckhunt: is 1976 started as a gun toy
The dog and his appearance with the ducks, are from the NES game, so that's not a mistake.

:ultbanjokazooie: is behind :ultsheik::ultyounglink::ultganondorf: as his debut was Diddy Kong Racing before his actual game released
Similar to Duck Hunt, Banjo and Kazooie (who didn't appear in Diddy Kong Racing) appearing as a duo came from their own game, so that's not a mistake either.

Though in the end, none of them are actual mistakes.
 
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silenthunder

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MOST IMPORTANTLY , Sakurai _ generally has had a habit of picking characters with an uninteresting play-style. _ PP _ KKR _ Belmonts _ LM _i could go on however you get the idea.
I feel like the Belmonts can do some hype **** with down tilt into down air after down tilt carries them off stage. I’ve come close.

Edit: also I feel like his dash attack is the best in the game if your opponent tries to jump when ran at. So he doesn’t have to just sit back with projectiles.
 
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Gengar84

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right he may have chosen characters for the base game. However NINTENDO _ AKA _ SHUNTARO FURUKAWA _ MADE the list for the DLC characters
Since this speculation is largely about 3rd party reps , i would suggest largely thinking about which characters SHUNTARO FURUKAWA would be interested in allowing into Smash. Not too mention since Sakurai will largely be an assist role i don't expect him to have any big requests himself.

MOST IMPORTANTLY , Sakurai _ generally has had a habit of picking characters with an uninteresting play-style. _ PP _ KKR _ Belmonts _ LM _i could go on however you get the idea.

So when thinking about whether or not a character would be able to get in _ Shuntaro Furukawa _ or current Nintendo president _ should be thought of first.
Something being uninteresting is completely subjective. I personally happen to really enjoy all of those characters. I love how faithful KKR and the Belmonts are to their home series and I have a blast playing them. Little Mac (and possibly Plant) could use a bit of rebalancing but I still find them enjoyable regardless.
 
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Geno Boost

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The dog and his appearance with the ducks, are from the NES game, so that's not a mistake.



Similar to Duck Hunt, Banjo and Kazooie (who didn't appear in Diddy Kong Racing) appearing as a duo came from their own game, so that's not a mistake either.

Though in the end, none of them are actual mistakes.
Sonic is exactly where he should be as he never appeared as an actual character in Rad Mobile. That was just an ornament bearing his likeness.
Technically both are correct but it’s up to preference
 

chocolatejr9

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Just a head's up, this week's gonna be busy for Nintendo: new Pokemon trailer tomorrow, new Indie World on the 9th, and Nintendo's financial report is this week. We'll have more to talk about soon enough...
 

dream1ng

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right he may have chosen characters for the base game. However NINTENDO _ AKA _ SHUNTARO FURUKAWA _ MADE the list for the DLC characters
Since this speculation is largely about 3rd party reps , i would suggest largely thinking about which characters SHUNTARO FURUKAWA would be interested in allowing into Smash. Not too mention since Sakurai will largely be an assist role i don't expect him to have any big requests himself.

MOST IMPORTANTLY , Sakurai _ generally has had a habit of picking characters with an uninteresting play-style. _ PP _ KKR _ Belmonts _ LM _i could go on however you get the idea.

So when thinking about whether or not a character would be able to get in _ Shuntaro Furukawa _ or current Nintendo president _ should be thought of first.
This is like thinking if a game is made by Nintendo, SHUNTARO FURUKAWA is sitting at a computer programming it. Dude's CEO, he's got more important stuff to do than choosing Smash's DLC. The Nintendo side is obviously a team of executives, producers, and possibly marketing people.
 

TCT~Phantom

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right he may have chosen characters for the base game. However NINTENDO _ AKA _ SHUNTARO FURUKAWA _ MADE the list for the DLC characters
Since this speculation is largely about 3rd party reps , i would suggest largely thinking about which characters SHUNTARO FURUKAWA would be interested in allowing into Smash. Not too mention since Sakurai will largely be an assist role i don't expect him to have any big requests himself.

MOST IMPORTANTLY , Sakurai _ generally has had a habit of picking characters with an uninteresting play-style. _ PP _ KKR _ Belmonts _ LM _i could go on however you get the idea.

So when thinking about whether or not a character would be able to get in _ Shuntaro Furukawa _ or current Nintendo president _ should be thought of first.
First off, what is with your formatting? Your post reads like some AI trying to understand Smash Speculation or someone with only a cursory grasp of English. Caps lock, lack of captializations, and random underlines do not help your point.

What you are saying also just does not make sense. Sakurai has always had a large amount of control over the characters added, even as DLC. It is easy to try to deflect any pick as a corporate overlord looking down on everyone, forcing Byleth onto the masses. Sakurai has always had veto power for DLC. Dude literally played Three Houses pre release with a dev build to get a good feel for Byleth. You even provided the exact tweet that disproves your entire argument. Nintendo might have played a hand with the fighter's pass choices, sure. Sakurai did have veto power in terms of deciding if they could make the character or not. Name dropping Furukawa is not going to automatically make your argument sound. Even if we went with the take that Sakurai had his hands tied completely for DLC, Furukawa would not be the sole person to consider. Nintendo's entire top level corporate ecosystem plays a role in negotiations. You can't just say that Nights is likely because Miyamoto said he likes Nights and we should think about what he likes first.

I also find your point of an "uninteresting play style" just weird. TLDR here's why.


But for the extended version, you are not the arbiter of what makes an interesting moveset or not. Neither am I. I might detest Plant, but I know quite a few people that find the idea of its moveset interesting. Belmonts and K Rool also are pretty popular characters casually in no small part due to their movesets. You can find those character's uninteresting, nothing is stopping you there. But using that opinion as a piece of hard evidence? That ain't it man. People can find appeal in any moveset in the game and find it interesting. I personally find Wii Fit cumbersome to use: plenty of people really like her. I personally love playing as Mii Brawler; that does not mean everyone does.

Your points for a while were already questionable at best and borderline trolling at worst. Then you posted literal Russian propoganda when they are actively comitting war crimes and genocide in Ukraine. And yet you posted that reprehensible misinformation in... a smash bros discussion. This is the easiest block of my life.
 
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Swamp Sensei

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I think this is first time I've read someone ask for more corporate involvement with Smash Bros picks.

Like the Fighters Pass characters were mostly good picks and I love all of them but like...

What?
 

Mamboo07

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I think this is first time I've read someone ask for more corporate involvement with Smash Bros picks.

Like the Fighters Pass characters were mostly good picks and I love all of them but like...

What?
Little part of me felt like there wasn't much Nintendo characters.

Was expecting a Sword/Shield Pokemon or another popular request.
 

Aligo

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Little part of me felt like there wasn't much Nintendo characters.

Was expecting a Sword/Shield Pokemon or another popular request.
The first party picks were either planned ideas for base they didn't have time for, or fire emblem. On the topic of fire emblem I think an armour knight of some kind would be cool. They would probably be pretty bad, true to the form for the home series, but they would be very different from the other reps while not being too complicated like a flyer or cavalry.
 

dream1ng

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Base was mostly targeting the Smash fanbase directly with its focus on first-parties of high popularity or general impact and a popular, Nintendo-oriented third-party.

DLC was more focused on drawing attention to recent Nintendo games and casting a wide net with third-parties. That's naturally going to create, I believe, a more hit-or-miss reception, connection-wise. That's the nature of choosing general third-parties. There are so many series out there; not every character will resonate with everyone.

The goal of catering to the existing install base only prompted one inclusion per wave. The bigger goal in DLC is either to cater to general gamers and draw them inward, or cater to Nintendo's other current software, and ideally push the fanbase outward, in that direction.

Trying to predict who _ NINTENDO _ THE _ ENTITY _ is going to pick is a fruitless endeavor past those three existing pillars (general third-party, promotional first-party, and the occasional fan-favorite third-party), and we already do that. The first category is immense and therefore difficult to predict, the second is kind of underwhelming, perfunctory and very predicated on timing, and the third dictates most of the conversation anyway since it's "our" category.

Lessening Sakurai's involvement is sometimes touted as the cure to whatever part of the roster we don't like, but in reality it's just going to make the first-party choices worse and give the third-parties less interesting movesets. Not to mention make it more difficult to actually acquire characters since Sakurai's clout, experience, and diplomacy are no doubt a part of hyper-protective companies even trusting the team with their IP.
 
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Chuderz

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I don't know. I doubt Sakurai will ever leave the series behind. I think he's gonna be the director until he dies or is just waaaaaaay too old to do it anymore but even then I'd imagine him making himself as involved as he could be. Miyazaki is in his early 80's and is ostensibly (might get pushed back) releasing his "final" movie next year. Sakurai even professed to a similar workaholic mantra in his sitdown with Harada.

Personally I think Sakurai has taken the independent contractor thing as far as he can if he legitimately wants to do things other than Smash. At least if he wants to do ambitious projects that is. I think it'd be cool if Nintendo built a first-party studio for him to helm and Bamco created a Smash division he could equally helm. Both studios could have assistant manager types he could trust to progress their respective projects while Sakurai is busy with the other. Of course this is just idealism based on nothing I personally can attest to understanding the intricacies of but I still think he's gone about as far as he can as an independent contractor. I've heard Iwata offered to create a studio for him to helm and he turned it down but maybe things have changed since then? Idk but he's gotta see that his most beloved work has come from his association with AAA dev teams at HAL and Bamco.
 

DarthEnderX

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Funnily enough various third parties could do semi-clones with ease; Old Snake and Big Boss for Solid Snake, numerous SF shoto clones of Ryu, different Belmonts for Simon/Richter, and other DQ protagonists for Hero.
Shadow [Sonic]
Bass [Megaman]
Zack [Cloud]
Jeanne [Bayonetta]
Roxas [Kingdom Hearts]
 

dream1ng

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I don't know. I doubt Sakurai will ever leave the series behind. I think he's gonna be the director until he dies or is just waaaaaaay too old to do it anymore but even then I'd imagine him making himself as involved as he could be. Miyazaki is in his early 80's and is ostensibly (might get pushed back) releasing his "final" movie next year. Sakurai even professed to a similar workaholic mantra in his sitdown with Harada.

Personally I think Sakurai has taken the independent contractor thing as far as he can if he legitimately wants to do things other than Smash. At least if he wants to do ambitious projects that is. I think it'd be cool if Nintendo built a first-party studio for him to helm and Bamco created a Smash division he could equally helm. Both studios could have assistant manager types he could trust to progress their respective projects while Sakurai is busy with the other. Of course this is just idealism based on nothing I personally can attest to understanding the intricacies of but I still think he's gone about as far as he can as an independent contractor. I've heard Iwata offered to create a studio for him to helm and he turned it down but maybe things have changed since then? Idk but he's gotta see that his most beloved work has come from his association with AAA dev teams at HAL and Bamco.
If Sakurai wants to do things other than Smash he's barely taken the independent contractor thing far at all. He technically works freelance, but he's also had the same contractor for the last seventeen years as he did for the thirteen years prior to leaving HAL: Nintendo. Working for the same company for like 95% of your career isn't exactly taking independent contracting to its limits.

At this point if he wants to do ambitious projects it's likelier some other studio would provide him more preferable offers for something experimental and new than Nintendo would. Landing Sakurai would be a major coup for a studio, so I suspect they'd incentivize him with proposals of higher creative freedom than Nintendo would provide. If that was his priority, Nintendo probably wouldn't be the choice. So far his priority has been Smash. It probably will continue to be. But in the interim between titles, he will likely have the option to work on other stuff, potentially with other companies.

And Iwata didn't just offer to create a studio for him, he did create a studio for him: Project Sora. They disbanded it after Uprising. Permanence doesn't seem to be what he wants. He doesn't even hire anyone on to Sora Ltd, it's just him and his wife. Iwata was his strongest link with Nintendo, and if he couldn't court Sakurai for a permanent position, I doubt they'll be able to now.
 

TCT~Phantom

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The only way I see Sakurai not being the director himself for smash is if he chooses someone else as a hand picked successor while he stays on as an executive producer of sorts in the background to help out. Fact is, Sakurai is human and he’s getting older. He probably would want to future proof Smash to make sure that when he’s gone, it has a face he trusts behind it. That is a Herculean task I know, filling his shoes is gonna be rough. But at the end of the day it’s the only way I see him taking any sort of step back.

Also, people love to scapegoat Sakurai for whatever roster choice they don’t like, I agree with what dream1ng dream1ng was saying. Sure, we probs would have gotten a very different roster for Ultimate if Sakurai wasn’t the director, but does that mean better? First party picks would almost certainly be as by the book and promotional as possible, while third parties might also take a hit. Sakurai is trusted with these iconic characters due to how faithfully he portrays them. It’s easy to just point at Sakurai, whine, and assume if he was gone the roster would automatically be your dream roster. But that isn’t how it works.
 

Gengar84

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All I know is that I almost definitely wouldn’t have gotten Sephiroth without Sakurai. Seeing as he and OoT Ganondorf are my two favorite Smash characters, I’m glad we have him. The roster overall has been great too, even if it isn’t exactly my ideal picks if I could choose everyone myself.
 

chocolatejr9

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Potentially stupid question: what do they mean by "strengthen the digitalization of Nintendo's business"? Are we gonna get more rereleases? Are we getting more mobile stuff? I'm not sure...
 
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Oracle Link

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How do you find this Idea? To better represent every Fanchise in Smash the current Main Developer helps out with character Creation?!
To avoid things like Ganondorf, the Dks and Kirby?
 

Perkilator

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Aligo

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All I know is that I almost definitely wouldn’t have gotten Sephiroth without Sakurai. Seeing as he and OoT Ganondorf are my two favorite Smash characters, I’m glad we have him. The roster overall has been great too, even if it isn’t exactly my ideal picks if I could choose everyone myself.
Yeah I mean how many complaints would there be if was the picked we have had over the years sans fire emblem?

Also I would love a non BWD Kirby newcomer in smash ( he was super boring in forgotten land).
 
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Oracle Link

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Yeah I mean how many complaints would there be if was the picked we have had over the years sans fire emblem?

Also I would love a non BWD Kirby newcomer in smash ( he was super boring in forgotten land).
Shall i pull out the Handy Dandy Kirby Newcomer List?
edit here it is:
8 Important Kirby Characters that could be in smash:
Bandana Dee
Hes in F***in Everything including being the only other Playable Character in the first 3d Instalment!
Galacta Knight
Major secret Boss In Multiple Kirbys (Also could be Meta Knight Echo)
Morpho knight
Hes the new galacta Knight so yeah
Whispy
Major Boss Comparable to Bowser jr
Kracko
same is Also Playable Via Adeline in star allies
Dark Matter
Sword Form:
True Form:
Representative of Most Kirby Final Bosses
Magolor
another Important Character having A major Role in RTDL aswell as being Playable in fighters 2
Gooey
Was Playable Twice and could be a Echo for Kirby

Characters that in my Opinion Shouldnt be added currently are ahem:
Marx while hes a Fine Character believe that would be like adding king Wulfirc instead of King Krool for a TON Of Kirby Fans
Adeline She Makes a Much Better Assist Trophy And Considering that all current ones suck we need new ones!
Fecto Elfilis and other One Offs Including Characters that appeared more often makes more Sense for me!
Generic Enemys: Considering that Waddle Dees are the Best Kirby Enemys and that BWD Exists theres no reason for Characters like Knuckle Joe to exist outside of Being an Actual Enemy in a Mode!
Also if youre a Kirby Fan Pls try to suggest some Improvements to this List! i wantv to make this the Standart for Kirby Newcomer Discusion!
 
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Gengar84

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Shall i pull out the Handy Dandy Kirby Newcomer List?
edit here it is:
8 Important Kirby Characters that could be in smash:
Bandana Dee
Hes in F***in Everything including being the only other Playable Character in the first 3d Instalment!
Galacta Knight
Major secret Boss In Multiple Kirbys (Also could be Meta Knight Echo)
Morpho knight
Hes the new galacta Knight so yeah
Whispy
Major Boss Comparable to Bowser jr
Kracko
same is Also Playable Via Adeline in star allies
Dark Matter
Sword Form:
True Form:
Representative of Most Kirby Final Bosses
Magolor
another Important Character having A major Role in RTDL aswell as being Playable in fighters 2
Gooey
Was Playable Twice and could be a Echo for Kirby

Characters that in my Opinion Shouldnt be added currently are ahem:
Marx while hes a Fine Character believe that would be like adding king Wulfirc instead of King Krool for a TON Of Kirby Fans
Adeline She Makes a Much Better Assist Trophy And Considering that all current ones suck we need new ones!
Fecto Elfilis and other One Offs Including Characters that appeared more often makes more Sense for me!
Generic Enemys: Considering that Waddle Dees are the Best Kirby Enemys and that BWD Exists theres no reason for Characters like Knuckle Joe to exist outside of Being an Actual Enemy in a Mode!
Also if youre a Kirby Fan Pls try to suggest some Improvements to this List! i wantv to make this the Standart for Kirby Newcomer Discusion!
My dream pick is Bugzzy but I don’t think there’s much of a chance at all of that happening. I’ve just always personally loved Bugzzy since playing Superstar on the SNES. We did get Pirahna Plant so I suppose nothing is impossible.

1667917719601.png
 
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Chuderz

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If Sakurai wants to do things other than Smash he's barely taken the independent contractor thing far at all. He technically works freelance, but he's also had the same contractor for the last seventeen years as he did for the thirteen years prior to leaving HAL: Nintendo. Working for the same company for like 95% of your career isn't exactly taking independent contracting to its limits.

At this point if he wants to do ambitious projects it's likelier some other studio would provide him more preferable offers for something experimental and new than Nintendo would. Landing Sakurai would be a major coup for a studio, so I suspect they'd incentivize him with proposals of higher creative freedom than Nintendo would provide. If that was his priority, Nintendo probably wouldn't be the choice. So far his priority has been Smash. It probably will continue to be. But in the interim between titles, he will likely have the option to work on other stuff, potentially with other companies.

And Iwata didn't just offer to create a studio for him, he did create a studio for him: Project Sora. They disbanded it after Uprising. Permanence doesn't seem to be what he wants. He doesn't even hire anyone on to Sora Ltd, it's just him and his wife. Iwata was his strongest link with Nintendo, and if he couldn't court Sakurai for a permanent position, I doubt they'll be able to now.
IDK. We shall see then. I like Sakurai and appreciate his perspective but a part of me wonders just how experimental or ambitious he truly is. For example he's reused that same powerup system from Super Star for a lot of his games namely Air Ride City Trial Mode (in my opinion his 2nd most significant contribution to gaming) Uprising and Smash Run. He did that weird Tetris like game and that odd Beetle King thing but besides that it's just Smash and Kirby plus Uprising I guess.

Everybody presumes he's this tortured artist being held back by the constraints of Nintendo but a part of me just doesn't see it as such.

Also I've said before that I think his relationship with Nintendo goes beyond Iwata. I really doubt he'll make a game for a competing console. He seems very traditional in a lot of his attitudes and that would be a very big public display of "disrespect" (though us Westerners would see switching companies as very normal) and I think the creative freedom he's given by Nintendo either isn't likely going to be matched or exceeded by anyone or Nintendo simply gives him satisfactory amount of creative freedom as is. With Nintendo he has such established ties that I think it'd only serve to disservice his ambitions to leave them.
 
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Oracle Link

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My dream pick is Bugzzy but I don’t think there’s much of a chance at all of that happening. I’ve just always personally loved Bugzzy since playing Superstar on the SNES. We did get Pirahna Plant so I suppose nothing is impossible.
Yeah but it would be unfair to add a minor Midboss as the fourth Char although if Kirby reaches about 8 chars there isnt too much speaking against him!
 

Gengar84

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Yeah but it would be unfair to add a minor Midboss as the fourth Char although if Kirby reaches about 8 chars there isnt too much speaking against him!
I can’t argue with that. If I could build the roster out of characters that I personally liked the most, he’d already be on it but there are definitely several characters that outrank him in importance to the series.

On that subject, I’m curious how different the roster would end up for everyone here if they could build their own list purely from their personal favorite characters in gaming, completely divorced from whether those characters are actually deserving or iconic enough to realistically make it in. I think the roster is great as is but a list of my personal favorite 80 plus characters in gaming would look almost completely different.
 
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Oracle Link

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I can’t argue with that. If I could build the roster out of characters that I personally liked the most, he’d already be on it but there are definitely several characters that outrank him in importance to the series.

On that subject, I’m curious how different the roster would end up for everyone here if they could build their own list purely from their personal favorite characters in gaming, completely divorced from whether those characters are actually deserving or iconic enough to realistically make it in. I think the roster is great as is but a list of my personal favorite 80 plus characters in gaming would look almost completely different.
True i even replaced LA Remake Link with Toon Link in my Rosters Cus Toon Link is just more Important!
 

Chuderz

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So does anyone else think it'd be cool if other characters got specialized Shields like Yoshi has? I always think of Link getting Daruk's protection for example or Donkey Kong using a barrel. Anybody else got some other ideas? I'd be curious to hear about 'em.
 

osby

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I really doubt he'll make a game for a competing console. He seems very traditional in a lot of his attitudes and that would be a very big public display of "disrespect" (though us Westerners would see switching companies as very normal) and I think the creative freedom he's given by Nintendo either isn't likely going to be matched or exceeded by anyone or Nintendo simply gives him satisfactory amount of creative freedom as is.
Is this really a thing?

I was under the impression that Japanese game developers aren't any less likely to change companies they work in over creative disagreements or any other reasons. I just don't remember any of them citing such moves as disrespectful.

An example of this would be nice.
 

Troykv

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Since base models were mentioned, I've been thinking, which base models do people think would be used for certain characters?

Like, for Hayabusa, maybe Marth would be used for him?
Billy and Jimmy Lee would obviously have Ryu.
Extremely late post, but I was just recently reading the thread after being out a few days, and I remember that :ultzelda: would be a nice base for Micaiah; in fact, with the changes Zelda had going into Smash Ultimate, she actually became more similar to the kind of physique and style that Micaiah has xD.
 

Aligo

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So does anyone else think it'd be cool if other characters got specialized Shields like Yoshi has? I always think of Link getting Daruk's protection for example or Donkey Kong using a barrel. Anybody else got some other ideas? I'd be curious to hear about 'em.
Ooh, I have mentioned this previously, as there is a lot that could be done. Pyra and Mythra can use the blade shield they use for defense in their games, Steve could use a rectangular shield because Minecraft, and the Pokémon could have a normal one but with the aesthetic of protect.
 

toonito

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Re: Yoko Taro 2B

IMO I feel that unlike Mai whose sex appeal is an essential part of her design, 2B with some minor alterations to her top, skirt, and leggings can make it in Smash without much issue. Mythra provided a toned down blueprint for 2B.



if Yoko is serious about 2B in Smash and has a good relationship with Sakurai this might be good for her chances in Smash 6. she'd probably be the frontrunner for a new Square Enix rep.
 
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TCT~Phantom

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Re: Yoko Taro 2B

IMO I feel that unlike Mai whose sex appeal is an essential part of her design, 2B with some minor alterations to her top, skirt, and leggings can make it in Smash without much issue. Mythra provided a toned down blueprint for 2B.



if Yoko is serious about 2B in Smash and has a good relationship with Sakurai this might be good for her chances in Smash 6. she'd probably be the frontrunner for a new Square Enix rep.
I agree with your point about how toning down 2B is not some sort of herculean task, but I think there is some pause to saying she could be the frontrunner for a unique Square rep. For starters, Nier's future is still a little up in the air. The bigger issue imo is competition.

Final Fantasy right now is literally just FF7, which gives plenty of room for character choices. Chrono is a solid retro pick. I would highlight Neku since he has a solid fanbase, though Square screwed up promoting NEO. Also there is the puppet shaped elephant in the room.

2B is a solid pick, but I think right now the big thing to keep an eye on is how Nier does as a series and on the competition. I feel calling her the frontrunner rn is a little hasty.
 

toonito

Smash Ace
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I agree with your point about how toning down 2B is not some sort of herculean task, but I think there is some pause to saying she could be the frontrunner for a unique Square rep. For starters, Nier's future is still a little up in the air. The bigger issue imo is competition.

Final Fantasy right now is literally just FF7, which gives plenty of room for character choices. Chrono is a solid retro pick. I would highlight Neku since he has a solid fanbase, though Square screwed up promoting NEO. Also there is the puppet shaped elephant in the room.

2B is a solid pick, but I think right now the big thing to keep an eye on is how Nier does as a series and on the competition. I feel calling her the frontrunner rn is a little hasty.
fair enough

I agree on FF; there's more characters they can bring but I'm not confident they'll return to that well
Chrono Trigger as well would be a good retro pick but again don't feel like it'll happen
if not 2B then Neku could be another new choice from SE for Smash

i'm not trying to be objective; just my gut feeling.

I could be wrong but 2B kinda fills the contemporary pick Joker did even if Nier has no future.

I don't see it with Geno. I've always felt that he's only relevant because of the online Smash community and a 15 year old comment from Sakurai. I'd rather see several other SE characters (pretty much every other character you listed) get the nod before him. Then again Geno could be the wish fulfillment pick for Smash 6 similar to Sora for Ultimate.
 
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