Unlike the Echo Fighters section, I won't really go into potential mechanics for the newcomers, with maybe a couple of exceptions. Instead, I mainly intend to explain my reasoning for each of the inclusions I have made here; the same will apply to the DLC Fighters section. With that out of the way, let's begin with the base game newcomers.
-To start things off, we have the Octolings, specifically the protagonist versions first appearing in Splatoon 2's Octo Expansion DLC. Probably one of the safest guesses for Smash 6, though I decided to be a bit more interesting here by predicting that they will be an Isabelle-esque semi-clone to the Inklings instead of just being their Echo Fighter. They'd keep the same basic framework as the Inklings, including the whole Ink mechanic, but their weapon loadout for their moveset would be different in order to cover some of the bases that the Inkling moveset did not. Potential for a different moveset aside, considering that Splatoon has quickly made a name for itself and is already on its third installment, I feel it would be nonsensical for the Octolings to be an Echo while Isabelle remained her own character slot.
-At this point, I feel that the Zelda series needs some sort of significant shakeup, and adding Impa to its ranks while retiring Sheik feels significant enough. Although I'm not the most knowledgeable about Zelda as a series, I am aware of some of the recurring cast members throughout the franchise besides the Triforce wielders. Ultimately, it boiled down to either Impa or Tingle, and I chose Impa simply because the character has been around for longer, and because of the Hyrule Warriors sub-series giving us not just one, but two versions of her that I feel are fit for fighting; the Ocarina version of her as seen in the original Hyrule Warriors, and the version of her that appears in Age of Calamity. I feel that either of these versions of her could get in, though I chose the version featured in the original Warriors for the image out of convenience. Either way, Impa is undoubtedly an important recurring character in the Zelda franchise, and I felt it would make sense to have her replace Sheik, who was a one-off alter-ego character for Zelda that I feel only stayed around for so long in Smash's roster for legacy reasons.
-Alongside Impa is another addition to Zelda at the expense of another character, that being the Toy Link featured in the Link's Awakening remake replacing Toon Link. To a lot of you, this is probably a very controversial replacement, and that's because at this point, it still kind of is. This was the "interchangable character" I mentioned prior; I put Toy Link in as a prediction that a future Zelda title will reuse the art style the Awakening remake used. Specifically, I made this choice under the assumption that the Oracle games will get remade at some point in the forseeable future, thus using the toy diorama art style again. However, I cannot deny the possibility that the Link's Awakening remake was a one time thing regardless of how well it did, and if we don't see any meaningful return of its toy diorama style in the Zelda series when the next Smash comes around, then I very much plan to give Toon Link's place in the roster back and get rid of "Toy Link". In short, I feel that Toon and Toy Link are interchangable here currently, and if you prefer one over the other, you can assume that one is who gets in here.
==WARNING: METROID DREAD SPOILERS BELOW. IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO BE SPOILED, SCROLL PAST THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH.==
This next choice could be a case of counting ravens before they hatch, but I feel that Raven Beak is a worthy contender among Nintendo's first parties for Smash 6. While the character has only appeared in Samus Returns's ending and Metroid Dread, it's hard to overstate the impact on the entire Metroid saga that Raven Beak has left, from his extermination of the Thoha race being indirectly responsible for the events of nearly every Metroid title leading up to Dread, to him being one of the Chozo gene donors for Samus and thus being responsible for her enhanced combat prowess and instincts, a fact that Raven Beak taunts her with near the end of Dread. This aformentioned gene donation also means to me that Raven Beak would be an ideal Smash fighter--the way I see it, he would be the Ganondorf to Samus's Captain Falcon, and his X Parasite mutation at the end of Dread would make for the perfect Final Smash for him as well. Some people have mentioned the EMMI as a fighter from Dread, but I feel that they are too unorthodox compared to Raven Beak; Besides the fact that the EMMI are a group of robots instead of a single entity like the SA-X and Dark Samus before it, they also have various intentionally-overpowered aspects to them that would be impossible to translate well to Smash, between their nigh-destructible armor, their ability to traverse walls and ceilings freely, and especially the instant-kill needle jab that they do if they catch Samus. All in all, while I don't think Dread is automatically entitled to a representative, it is still a landmark game in Metroid's history critically and commercially, and Raven Beak has proven to be a break-out villain in his own right--I'd argue he's the most notable and important out of Metroid's one-shot antagonists.
==SPOILERS END HERE.==
We've reached the first of a good few placeholder slots, this one being a Pokemon from the upcoming Scarlet and Violet titles. At this point in time, I can't really make any proper guesses as to which Pokemon could make the cut since we only know about the initial starters, but if I had to make any sort of bet, I'd wager that Sprigatito's final evolution (whatever it looks like) will probably be the one picked, going off the last two Pokemon newcomers being the other two starter types. Other than that, not too much to say here for now.
This other placeholder here is a bit more of a risky guess, but I feel that at least one older Nintendo series will get a fresh breath of life here in Smash 6. As for the three characters I picked to represent this placeholder...
Andy is here because of the upcoming Advance Wars remake and because of Advance Wars being a popular Brawl-era request. If Reboot Camp proves to be a successful revival, then I could see one of its characters squeezing in as a last-minute addition.
Isaac is here due to being a longer-lasting first party request, and because of the notable glowup his Assist Trophy got when it returned for Ultimate. The only thing that makes Isaac uncertain here is because his series has been dormant since the DS era.
Starfy is admittedly a personal pick of mine, but having five games within the span of 6-7 years is honestly still an incredible feat if you ask me, even if only the last one came out worldwide. Unfortunately, due to Starfy's momentum stopping dead in its tracks with that fifth game, it's a hard sell unless his older games get remade in the near future, but even then, I have the strong feeling that Sakurai very much disagrees with the saying "imitation is the sincerest form of flattery" when it comes to characters who look like Kirby...
A honorable mention here is the Chorus Kids (or any other Rhythm Heaven character); this series is probably the most fit out of all the ones I've mentioned here, but being barred from Smash 4 and not even given the time of day for Ultimate (outside of Grinch) makes me question if they just can't find a satisfactory way to implement Rhythm Heaven into a Smash fighter.
Originally, I also had a placeholder for a "future Nintendo IP" on the roster, but remembering that Nintendo bought the rights to Astral Chain made me realize that Akira/Officer Howard has now become a strong contender for Smash 6. Smash isn't unfamiliar with Platinum-developed games thanks to Bayonetta's inclusion, and with the company's continued relationship with Nintendo, I imagine that Howard being included in Smash 6 would be a good relationship sweetener after Nintendo bought Astral Chain as an IP. I can't comment much more about this since I'm not too familiar with Astral Chain as a video game, other than that I also considered the Ring Fit protagonists as a recent Nintendo fighter, but I felt that Howard would bring much more to the table even if Ring Fit is popular in its own right, and also because I feel that they wouldn't want to replace the Wii Fit Trainer just yet.
The last of the first-party niches I needed to fill was the obligatory joke/retro character. I feel that after Piranha Plant's mixed reception, the next suprise character will go back to referencing Nintendo's legacy hardware. I decided that the Famicom Disk System would be a good target for this, and as a result I added Diskun to the roster. I envisioned this character's moveset as basically being Mr. Game & Watch's basic concept, applied to Nintendo games released on the Disk System. Luckily, since a lot of earlier Famicom titles were ported to the Disk System later on, this opens up more material for such a moveset. I didn't really write down any specific concepts, with the exception of an idea for a special grabbing mechanic; like with Donkey Kong, if Diskun grabs someone and taps forward or backward on the control stick, they'll start carrying the character over their head and are granted limited movement while the character is still in their grasp. Here, it would function like holding an item in Super Mario Bros. 2 (or should I say...Doki Doki Panic?), where Diskun can move left, move right, or jump like Mario/Imajin does in that game while holding an object. Pressing A makes Diskun toss the grabbed character at a downwards arc like how the player throws items in Mario 2/Doki Doki Panic, and the thrown character can potentially be knocked into another fighter for decent damage. Honestly, this may be a fighter I'll try and make a full moveset for in the future.
When it comes to third-party newcomers in Smash 6, for my money the biggest elephant in the room that needs to be addressed here is Bomberman from his eponymous series. I feel that Bomberman certainly got his foot in the door with Ultimate; his Assist Trophy is one of the more complex-functioning ones, said Assist got special highlight during Ultimate's E3 2018 presentation, and later on Bomberman got a full-body Mii Costume that even changed color depending on the Mii's preferred color. I can't help but feel that Sakurai wanted to have Bomberman playable at first, but putting in all of the content for Castlevania ended up taking major priority instead when it came to Ultimate's development. Even if Bomberman hasn't been too active outside of Super R and its Online mode, the series has a staggering legacy, with it being present on virtually every game platform that's been on the market since 1983, and the series being able to directly collaborate with one of Nintendo's properties (the US version of Bomberman GB that turned the game into a Wario crossover) is an impressive feat among third-party franchises. I can't help but feel that Bomberman will get his proper due in Smash 6.
Be warned as my bias could potentially be showing here with this next pick, but I have a gut feeling that Puyo Puyo's Arle Nadja will be the next character owned by Sega to get in Smash. When you look at Sega's current top franchises, while Sonic obviously takes the number 1 spot, Puyo Puyo is actually not too far behind, at least on the Japan side of things. And this is for good reason; ever since its 1991 inception, Puyo has been a frequent-flying series in its homeland, having made appearances on every major platform in some form except Nintendo's ill-fated Virtual Boy. The competitive arcade outings in the early 90s are what I feel started the whole competitive puzzle game craze in the first place; if you've ever played games in the past like Magical Drop, Panel de Pon/Tetris Attack, Panic Bomber, and Puzzle Fighter, chances are that they all owe their existence to Puyo Puyo kickstarting the trend of two-player head-to-head puzzle games, all the way back in 1992. Besides the legacy of the games themselves, the cast has also gotten some popularity in their own right, especially considering older mainstays like Arle and Carbuncle have appeared in the vast majority of the franchise's works, extending to the original dungeon-crawling Mado Monogatari series that Puyo spun off from. Even after Sega bought the rights to the series and introduced a new cast of characters in Puyo Puyo Fever, Arle and Carbuncle remained present in every title, and starting with the anniversary games, other classic Compile-era characters made their return as well. Even 30 years on, Arle and Carbuncle remain the de facto mascots and faces of this Japan-popular franchise, and ever since the series finally breached international waters with the 2017 rerelease of Puyo Puyo Tetris, Arle has started making a name for herself in Western communities as well, to the point where I'd argue that she was the one non-Sonic Sega character that popped up the most in Ultimate's speculation, to the point where, in an interview held during Ultimate's DLC cycle, the current Puyo series producer expressed interest in seeing Arle being included in a Smash title. To sum things up, between the series's popularity in its home country, its consistent presence on Nintendo platforms, and having a good amount of presence in Smash speculation, I feel that Arle is prime for a spot in Smash 6.
Capcom was certainly not shy about pouring on content in Smash Ultimate, and it's an easy assumption that it will be the same case for Smash 6. Since Street Fighter got its turn at a new character in Ultimate, I think Mega Man will get its share next installment. And among Mega Man's cast, I feel that Zero from the Mega Man X subseries is the prime candidate for inclusion. Zero is undoubtedly a popular character in his own right, both with fans and within Capcom as well, having gotten his own line of subseries, being revived repeatedly in the X series out of popular demand, and even having been slated to be X himself at one point in X1's development. You could probably make a good argument that Zero is more popular than the Blue Bomber himself, or at least much more popular than X. Besides Zero's popularity, there's also the case of his Assist Trophy in Ultimate, being one of the Assists that's the closest to being a full fighter in functionality (likely owing to his aforementioned popularity). Turning Zero from an Assist Trophy to a full fighter would be an easy crowd pleaser for Smash 6, and would also open the opportunity for one of Mega Man's most important subseries to get proper representation next time around. Some people may question me putting him over X, but as Kazuya and the Aegis Blades have demonstrated, just because Zero isn't the titular Mega Man X, doesn't mean that he isn't a main character in that series anyway.
SNK was very generous with content when it came to Terry Bogard's DLC, and I imagine that as with Capcom, they'll be more than cooperative during Smash 6's development. Iori Yagami is almost a same-song-and-dance ordeal as with Zero; an incredibly popular character within his own series, and popular in his own right as an SNK icon despite not being the initial main protagonist of his series. Though what gave him the edge over Kyo for me, was Sakurai's comments about him during his Terry presentation, stating that he considered him his favorite character within the King of Fighters series. To me, that comment pretty much means "If I get to add someone from The King of Fighters proper, he's getting in without a second thought about it." Considering that Terry already got the lion's share of SNK content in Ultimate, however, I feel that Smash 6's base game is the only real opportunity for Iori to be added, since it'd be hard to justify a second SNK fighter being in a Challenger Pack if Terry retains most or all of his content in the next game.
The last of the base game third-parties is someone I consider to be another elephant in the room that materialized thanks to the Ultimate speculation community; the character in question being Ninja Gaiden's Ryu Hayabusa. Hayabusa is certainly a bandwagon pick in origin--the fake 5chan leak that circulated at the beginning of 2019 is what put Hayabusa on the mind of a lot of speculators, especially since the leak would take a good six or so months to be hard deconfirmed thanks to Banjo's inclusion and the presence of multiple Heroes besides Erdrick. However, despite the 5chan leak fading away, Ryu Hayabusa continued to be a common name anyway, partially thanks to also being in a "Google leak" that also lasted a while before getting shot down, and more importantly, because of rampant rumors indicating that Nintendo and Koei-Tecmo would collaborate in some form regarding Smash (this turned out to be Byleth from the KT-developed Three Houses getting in, along with Hyrule Warriors spirits getting added later on). Hayabusa remained a frequent name in speculation, and while most of this was due to vague rumors and bogus leaks getting spread around, I feel that any kind of publicity for a character is good publicity when it comes to Smash. However, what cinches it for me is Nintendo and Koei-Tecmo's aforementioned relationship; the company not only managed to help develop a mainline Fire Emblem title, but is also working on its fourth Warriors crossover game (sixth if you consider the 3DS and Switch versions of Hyrule Warriors to be their own games) with Nintendo. Add this onto Ryu's decently-healthy presence on Nintendo platforms; he got his start with a trilogy of NES games, got a Game Boy title, a SNES compilation, a DS game, an appearance on the 3DS thanks to Dead or Alive Dimensions (which featured a Metroid crossover stage!), and now a Switch compilation of the "reboot" Ninja Gaiden trilogy. These three elements are what I feel to be the perfect storm for Ryu Hayabusa to be the Simon Belmont of Smash 6's newcomers.
