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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

Gengar84

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Dec 9, 2009
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I’m a bit surprised I don’t hear Zero brought up more often. He seems like a pretty reasonable choice for the next Smash. He’s been consistently popular since the 90’s and already has both an Assist Trophy and Mii outfit in Ultimate. I think he’s by far the most likely of any of my top 10 most wanted characters.
 

Hadokeyblade

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I’m a bit surprised I don’t hear Zero brought up more often. He seems like a pretty reasonable choice for the next Smash. He’s been consistently popular since the 90’s and already has both an Assist Trophy and Mii outfit in Ultimate. I think he’s by far the most likely of any of my top 10 most wanted characters.
People are too afraid of his power
 

DKing

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There's actually a reason to why Rayman shows up as a trophy and spirit in both Smash 4 and Smash Ultimate: because the Wii U version of Rayman Legends was actually published by Nintendo there.


Fun fact: the only other version of Rayman Legends they got (prior to the DE on Switch)...was on PS Vita. They never got the Xbox/PS versions.

You'll notice that Rayman's spirit is grouped with all of the misc. Nintendo IPs like Snipperclips and Wonderful 101 in the spirit inventory because of this. It's kinda the same thing with the Shovel Knight spirits, as Shovel Knight was also published on Wii U and 3DS by Nintendo in Japan.
I didn't even know Nintendo did published it in Japan.
 

Gengar84

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If I had to choose between Crash and Rayman, I’d lean towards Crash just because he was once seen as the PlayStation mascot. While none of them are among my most wanted characters, there would be a certain cool factor of seeing both Crash and Master Chief in Smash alongside Mario and Sonic. Rayman doesn’t have the console mascot appeal going for him so he’d just be another fun platforming character. Not that I’m opposed to any of them but those are my thoughts.
 
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chocolatejr9

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The people at Nintendo clearly like Rayman a lot, which is why it's weird he's not playable.
It is a little weird when you put it like that. Maybe it's a priority sort of thing? Either way, it'd be a good idea to keep an eye on Ubisoft for the time being: a lot is riding on the new Assassin's Creed game being sucessful, including Rayman's potential future...
 

Garteam

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I think the problem comes with the fact that this would have been in the 2000s, way past the "golden age" of fighting games that gets the bulk of the reverence there, and probably past what Sakurai would remember from that era, but at that point I feel weird speculating on what the man has or has not experienced
I think that's the issue, too. It's not necessarily that Guilty Gear didn't have fans when it was receiving arcade releases or that it wasn't popular relative to its contemporaries. It's moreso that arcades and one-on-one fighters were firmly declining in general popularity by early 2000s due to the Dreamcast and PS2 making the difference between the arcade and consoles negligible to non-existent, 2-D graphics being highly stigmatized in the Western market, etc.

I think that creates a relatively significant gap in the recognizability of games that dominated during the '90s, like Street Fighter and KoF, and games that dominated during the 2000s, like Guilty Gear, among Japan's more general demographic. Magazines like Gamest and Arcadia are useful insights into what arcade culture was like, they're also going to primarily being the sampling the hardcore demographic that wants dev interviews, guides, etc. I don't know how useful it is at gauging the opinion of Joe Six-Pack, who attends the arcade occasionally with his buddies or his girlfriend as a way to kill an afternoon.

Granted, this is all spitballing based on what YouTube videos, High Score Girl, and other secondary sources describe in conjunction with my own anecdotal experiences. I don't really know if there's any great way to verify how arcade relevance influences mainstream pop culture in Japan beyond getting a Gen X Japanese person who lived through both eras to discuss their own experiences and trusting their take.
 
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Watuna4343

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Here is a little thing I thought of. Why not rate the chances of each character in terms of getting into Smash? 100% won't be allowed here, for that is for locks and locks aren't possible. For example...

Waluigi: 93%
Dixie Kong: 91%
Bandana Waddle Dee: 82%
Crash Bandicoot: 79%
Geno: 63%
Paper Mario: In my opinion, 58%

These are just examples. You can explain why you put any percentage for each.
Out of the ones you listed:
Waluigi: 99.99% (one of the characters I consider slum dunks and can't give a 100% rating - the fan demand is through the roof, I don't see how he's not getting in this time)
Bandana Waddle Dee: 90% (also very requested, not quite as Waluigi, but I'd still bet on this little dude getting in)
Crash Bandicoot: 55% (the next Smash Bros is going to obviously introduce at least 1 3rd party newcomer - at the expense of a lot of pre-existing 3rd party reps though - and while I have a bit of a hard time seeing Crash getting in, he's certainly within the realm of possibilities)
Dixie Kong: For me, 50% at best unfortunately. (I just don't think Sakurai finds her a particularly interesting addition with the tag team mechanic from Brawl basically gone now that Diddy Kong is very much his own thing, and with her fan demand being lower than King K. Rool's, her best shot is as an echo.)
Geno: 25% (Only because Sakurai has said people were asking him for Geno, but for me, even 25% feels generous.)
Paper Mario: 10% (When it comes to Mario newcomers, this is easily the one most blown out of proportion. Sakurai probably hasn't even considered seperating Mario into fully unique 2 fighters. Doctor Mario is one thing because he was initially added as a quick clone, but here, we're talking about spending time and resources on a 2nd version of a character to represent a sub-series of a franchise that has plenty of representation on the roster already - instead of adding big fan demands, unique fighters, new IPs etc.)

Other highly speculated characters:
Octoling: 99.99% (like Waluigi, I am sure we'll see them in the next Smash, a slum dunk in my opinion)
Meowscarada: 99.99% (Probably my most out there percentage but honestly, Meowscarada has quite a few going for it both in terms of popularity and moveset potential to get in the next Smash, there may be arguments against it but they are really general unknowns, personally I'd still bet good money on Meowscarada getting in the next game)
Ayumi Tachibana: 75% (Every Smash Bros introduces a new Nintendo IP, and the Switch didn't offer a plethora of them so it's looking good for Ayumi as she doesn't have much competition. Her being considered in the past definitely helps but overall, hopefully I am not alone in this, but I feel good about Ayumi)
Toad: 60% (Toad is definitely a core Mario character, but I don't think Sakurai ever found particular interest in him as a fighter, plus let's be real, he's not crazily requested outside of the fandom. There's a chance he gets in of course, imo the 2nd likeliest Mario newcomer, but outside of his importance he doesn't have much else going for him)
Alear: 40% (I am thinking after the backlash of Corrin and especially Byleth's inclusion, Smash 6 will be the first Smash not to include a FE newcomer at least in the base game, Alear's game wasn't a commercial success or anything and it came out at a bad timing development wise, so I think they will only get in if Sakurai finds their moveset potential like... revolutionary or somehting)
Impa: 40% (I want a Zelda newcomer and I think we'll get one next game, but... for some reason I am not confident on Impa. She is a bit like Toad imo in that I don't think Sakurai finds her a particularly interesting inclusion)
 
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Gengar84

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I might as well do this for my predictions on some of my personal wanted characters:

The Battletoads - Probably around 15%. I think their connection with Nintendo through RARE gives them a decent shot but they’re still not particularly likely compared to other options.

Jinx - I’d say around 50%. She’s a huge cultural icon right now and her popularity extends well outside her game and games in general thanks to Arcane. Still, Riot has a relatively weak connection to Nintendo and she’s a western character so those are potential hurdles.

Magus - Realistically, about 5%. Chrono Trigger is a beloved classic JRPG and there is some chance it could earn them a spot in Smash. The biggest issue is that, even if it did get a character, Crono himself is a lot more likely. Though I do feel like Magus has several compelling reasons to be chosen instead.

Zero - I think around 70%. Like I mentioned, he’s got a long legacy and already has a lot of presence in Smash, which is a testament to his popularity. I could easily see him getting in Smash.
 

DarthEnderX

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Probably been asked a lot before, but how many characters do you think will end up in Smash 6?
100 unique Fighters. Probably about a dozen Echoes.

Are we saying here that Nintendo gravitated towards Banjo-Kazooie and Steve because they're owned by Microsoft?
Working with a company you're already working with is probably a contributing factor.

I’m a bit surprised I don’t hear Zero brought up more often. He seems like a pretty reasonable choice for the next Smash. He’s been consistently popular since the 90’s and already has both an Assist Trophy and Mii outfit in Ultimate. I think he’s by far the most likely of any of my top 10 most wanted characters.
I mean, he's the obvious choice for a 2nd Mega Man character.
 

Dukefire

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I will say that anyone putting any third party character’s chances at 90% or higher is going to likely be very disappointed. Same goes for first party characters at 99.99%. I don’t think any newcomer is that likely, even if you count “new Pokémon character” as one prediction.
Remember that Piranha Plant proved that no character is guaranteed to join.
 

Gengar84

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Remember that Piranha Plant proved that no character is guaranteed to join.
It also proved that most characters are at least possible. The only character on my most wanted list I’d put at near 0% is Zegram Ghart from Rogue Galaxy. While I’ll never completely rule anything out, I can’t really envision a scenario where Nintendo decides to include a secondary party member from a PS2 JRPG owned by Sony that hasn’t shown up since. Still, never say never I suppose (though I probably should with this one lol).
 

CannonStreak

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Out of the ones you listed:
Waluigi: 99.99% (one of the characters I consider slum dunks and can't give a 100% rating - the fan demand is through the roof, I don't see how he's not getting in this time)
Bandana Waddle Dee: 90% (also very requested, not quite as Waluigi, but I'd still bet on this little dude getting in)
Crash Bandicoot: 55% (the next Smash Bros is going to obviously introduce at least 1 3rd party newcomer - at the expense of a lot of pre-existing 3rd party reps though - and while I have a bit of a hard time seeing Crash getting in, he's certainly within the realm of possibilities)
Dixie Kong: For me, 50% at best unfortunately. (I just don't think Sakurai finds her a particularly interesting addition with the tag team mechanic from Brawl basically gone now that Diddy Kong is very much his own thing, and with her fan demand being lower than King K. Rool's, her best shot is as an echo.)
Geno: 25% (Only because Sakurai has said people were asking him for Geno, but for me, even 25% feels generous.)
Paper Mario: 10% (When it comes to Mario newcomers, this is easily the one most blown out of proportion. Sakurai probably hasn't even considered seperating Mario into fully unique 2 fighters. Doctor Mario is one thing because he was initially added as a quick clone, but here, we're talking about spending time and resources on a 2nd version of a character to represent a sub-series of a franchise that has plenty of representation on the roster already - instead of adding big fan demands, unique fighters, new IPs etc.)

Other highly speculated characters:
Octoling: 99.99% (like Waluigi, I am sure we'll see them in the next Smash, a slum dunk in my opinion)
Meowscarada: 99.99% (Probably my most out there percentage but honestly, Meowscarada has quite a few going for it both in terms of popularity and moveset potential to get in the next Smash, there may be arguments against it but they are really general unknowns, personally I'd still bet good money on Meowscarada getting in the next game)
Ayumi Tachibana: 75% (Every Smash Bros introduces a new Nintendo IP, and the Switch didn't offer a plethora of them so it's looking good for Ayumi as she doesn't have much competition. Her being considered in the past definitely helps but overall, hopefully I am not alone in this, but I feel good about Ayumi)
Toad: 60% (Toad is definitely a core Mario character, but I don't think Sakurai ever found particular interest in him as a fighter, plus let's be real, he's not crazily requested outside of the fandom. There's a chance he gets in of course, imo the 2nd likeliest Mario newcomer, but outside of his importance he doesn't have much else going for him)
Alear: 40% (I am thinking after the backlash of Corrin and especially Byleth's inclusion, Smash 6 will be the first Smash not to include a FE newcomer at least in the base game, Alear's game wasn't a commercial success or anything and it came out at a bad timing development wise, so I think they will only get in if Sakurai finds their moveset potential like... revolutionary or somehting)
Impa: 40% (I want a Zelda newcomer and I think we'll get one next game, but... for some reason I am not confident on Impa. She is a bit like Toad imo in that I don't think Sakurai finds her a particularly interesting inclusion)
That said, I may have overrated Dixie Kong and Geno. In Geno’s case, I only rated him higher than yours because of the SNRPG remake, and I admit, even the score I gave him is still too high. As for Dixie, I thought her fan demand would have helped, among other things.
 

BuckleyTim

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Remember that Piranha Plant proved that no character is guaranteed to join.

I mean, that just proves just about any character can join, even if as a "what if we did a real curveball". Plant's existence doesn't necessarily destroy anybody else's chances unless you're implying that it was somehow a response to the Grinch hoax (which I guarantee in response that sakurai to this day is not aware of in any capacity).

Now if we want to talk about what proves no character is guaranteed, then just look at sakurai's opinions on blatantly non-video-game characters being added to smash...
 

Gengar84

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It's rare to find people that know Rogue Galaxy.
I loved that game. I was a pretty big fan of Level 5 during the PS2 era and Rogue Galaxy was an improvement of their already great Dark Cloud games. Zegram is also just one of the coolest characters in gaming. It’s a shame it didn’t perform better than it did.

Regarding Dixie Kong, I’m not going to get into specifics again but I do think she has a lot more potential for a really unique and interesting moveset than people are giving her credit for. She doesn’t have to just be a Diddy echo. You can get creative while still bringing in all her canon abilities from the games.
 
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RileyXY1

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I'm also not sure Gen 9 will even get a rep, let alone it being Meowscarada. I only think that will happen if the game Sakurai mentioned in his final YouTube video is actually Smash, and the project plan was drafted as soon as Sora was released. Otherwise, I think that he will save a spot for Gen 10 instead.
 

Jave

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Alear: 40% (I am thinking after the backlash of Corrin and especially Byleth's inclusion, Smash 6 will be the first Smash not to include a FE newcomer at least in the base game, Alear's game wasn't a commercial success or anything and it came out at a bad timing development wise, so I think they will only get in if Sakurai finds their moveset potential like... revolutionary or somehting)
The thing with Alear is that their reception shouldn't be as bad as with other FE newcomers. My reasoning:

The timing with both Corrin and Byleth was legit awful. Fates wasn't even out outside Japan so Western fans couldn't even be excited for Corrin. Three Houses was still recent, but people were clamoring more for Edelgard/Dimitri/Claude (all great characters) so there was obvious disappointment when the safest choice of the Avatar with no personality was picked. Not to mention, Corrin came out after the one-two punch of Ryu and Cloud and Byleth after the 4-Hit Combo of Joker, Hero, Banjo-Kazooie and Terry. It's no surprise people were let down after a streak like that (and it will never not be funny how people were more hyped by the Cuphead Mii outfit than Byleth themselves).

If Alear is in, they'll most definitely be on base roster and announced between characters that are mostly expected, like Octoling and Ring Fit Trainee, so the hype levels shouldn't be as high as with the previous games' DLC run. It also helps that I feel most people have gotten used to the idea that Alear MIGHT be in, so it won't be too out of the blue like it was with Corrin and Byleth.
 

Hadokeyblade

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I'm also not sure Gen 9 will even get a rep, let alone it being Meowscarada. I only think that will happen if the game Sakurai mentioned in his final YouTube video is actually Smash, and the project plan was drafted as soon as Sora was released. Otherwise, I think that he will save a spot for Gen 10 instead.
We chould get an echo fighter though
 

Dukefire

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I mean, that just proves just about any character can join, even if as a "what if we did a real curveball". Plant's existence doesn't necessarily destroy anybody else's chances unless you're implying that it was somehow a response to the Grinch hoax (which I guarantee in response that sakurai to this day is not aware of in any capacity).

Now if we want to talk about what proves no character is guaranteed, then just look at sakurai's opinions on blatantly non-video-game characters being added to smash...
Non-video Games characters is one of the few rules that still holds. Sora is from Disney and Square Enix, but he is an exception since Disney property was edited out of the stage (while mickey icon is still on keychain) and the series itself originated as a game.

Until Sakurai changes his mind, that rule still stands.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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The thing with Alear is that their reception shouldn't be as bad as with other FE newcomers. My reasoning:

The timing with both Corrin and Byleth was legit awful. Fates wasn't even out outside Japan so Western fans couldn't even be excited for Corrin. Three Houses was still recent, but people were clamoring more for Edelgard/Dimitri/Claude (all great characters) so there was obvious disappointment when the safest choice of the Avatar with no personality was picked. Not to mention, Corrin came out after the one-two punch of Ryu and Cloud and Byleth after the 4-Hit Combo of Joker, Hero, Banjo-Kazooie and Terry. It's no surprise people were let down after a streak like that (and it will never not be funny how people were more hyped by the Cuphead Mii outfit than Byleth themselves).

If Alear is in, they'll most definitely be on base roster and announced between characters that are mostly expected, like Octoling and Ring Fit Trainee, so the hype levels shouldn't be as high as with the previous games' DLC run. It also helps that I feel most people have gotten used to the idea that Alear MIGHT be in, so it won't be too out of the blue like it was with Corrin and Byleth.
This is probably true, though it will probably get a similar reaction as Incineroar did: Not really appreciated, but tolerated.

Although Incineroar did have the added issue of people clinging to the "Grinch Leak", to which it proved to be a hoax.
 

Watuna4343

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I will say that anyone putting any third party character’s chances at 90% or higher is going to likely be very disappointed. Same goes for first party characters at 99.99%. I don’t think any newcomer is that likely, even if you count “new Pokémon character” as one prediction.
That's going to me I guess, but based on previous additions and the reasons why they were added, varying levels of confidence in certain characters I think is genuinely justified.
 

fogbadge

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I will say that anyone putting any third party character’s chances at 90% or higher is going to likely be very disappointed. Same goes for first party characters at 99.99%. I don’t think any newcomer is that likely, even if you count “new Pokémon character” as one prediction.
I'd say anything higher than 50% is optimistic
 

Dukefire

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This is probably true, though it will probably get a similar reaction as Incineroar did: Not really appreciated, but tolerated.

Although Incineroar did have the added issue of people clinging to the "Grinch Leak", to which it proved to be a hoax.
The next reaction aside from another FE rep joining the fight. "Another Anime Swordman fighter", which Byleth's trailer did poke at that comment from people.
 
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Godzillathewonderdog

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This sounds a bit dishonest. Are we saying here that Nintendo gravitated towards Banjo-Kazooie and Steve because they're owned by Microsoft? That would kinda be ignoring the merits those characters have by themselves with Banjo being a long time fan request and Minecraft being the best selling game on earth, Microsoft owned or not. It's likely not the case that Ubisoft was deliberately passed up on in favor of Microsoft either, they simply failed to get the priority for a DLC slot like many other third-parties. Don't think there was a conference meeting where Nintendo executives were saying "Ugh, those frenchies? Hard pass! Let us speak to Phil-sama again"
The person I was responding to was saying Ubisoft not having a character in Smash puts Rayman in a more favorable position than Crash, because Microsoft already had 2 characters. I wasn’t saying Rayman isn’t likely because of Microsoft, I was saying Ubisoft being skipped over does not put him in a more favorable position than a character whose company has had multiple characters. It’s not like Ubisoft is owed a character or something.
 

mynameisBlade

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If I had to choose between Crash and Rayman, I’d lean towards Crash just because he was once seen as the PlayStation mascot. While none of them are among my most wanted characters, there would be a certain cool factor of seeing both Crash and Master Chief in Smash alongside Mario and Sonic. Rayman doesn’t have the console mascot appeal going for him so he’d just be another fun platforming character. Not that I’m opposed to any of them but those are my thoughts.
I agree even though I want both. The BIG console mascots need to be here first. I feel Crash Bandicoot seemed to be the Sony mascot for quite awhile and I've never been able to get rid of the thought of having the Xbox guy in the same game as the Sony guy along with the Nintendo, Sega, and Capcom guys. Master Chief and Crash are the 2 characters I really wanted to see in Ultimate to complete that vision.
Smash Ultimate Dream.jpg
 

Opossum

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We chould get an echo fighter though
People keep suggesting this as if Scream Tail doesn't have a massive tail that Jigglypuff doesn't have while also being about two and a half times Jigglypuff's size.

It can't work as an echo.
 

Watuna4343

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Dixie definitely has fan demand but even if she does, let's be real, it's nowhere near King K. Rool's levels. She is going into Smash 6 competing with what is probably the most requested 1st party character (Waluigi) and fan demands from more successful series (Bandana Dee for example), hence why I am not sure she'll come
 

CannonStreak

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Dixie definitely has fan demand but even if she does, let's be real, it's nowhere near King K. Rool's levels. She is going into Smash 6 competing with what is probably the most requested 1st party character (Waluigi) and fan demands from more successful series (Bandana Dee for example), hence why I am not sure she'll come
Yeah, I know. In my last post, which you are probably referencing, I probably should have noted that. Still, she seems to have good all star status, so I don’t think this just fan demand alone.
 

Perkilator

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Dixie definitely has fan demand but even if she does, let's be real, it's nowhere near King K. Rool's levels. She is going into Smash 6 competing with what is probably the most requested 1st party character (Waluigi) and fan demands from more successful series (Bandana Dee for example), hence why I am not sure she'll come
Why not all three of them? Dixie can be an easy semi-clone of Diddy, at the very least.
 

Watuna4343

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If my memory doesn't abandon me I sure that Bandana is one of the most requested first party characters in Japan.
Idk if it's just Japan buy Bandana Dee is definitely requested, the only reason I put them lower than Waluigi in regards to fan-demand chances is because Waluigi's fan demand specifically got noted, not many have that luxury.
 

Watuna4343

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The thing with Alear is that their reception shouldn't be as bad as with other FE newcomers. My reasoning:

The timing with both Corrin and Byleth was legit awful. Fates wasn't even out outside Japan so Western fans couldn't even be excited for Corrin. Three Houses was still recent, but people were clamoring more for Edelgard/Dimitri/Claude (all great characters) so there was obvious disappointment when the safest choice of the Avatar with no personality was picked. Not to mention, Corrin came out after the one-two punch of Ryu and Cloud and Byleth after the 4-Hit Combo of Joker, Hero, Banjo-Kazooie and Terry. It's no surprise people were let down after a streak like that (and it will never not be funny how people were more hyped by the Cuphead Mii outfit than Byleth themselves).

If Alear is in, they'll most definitely be on base roster and announced between characters that are mostly expected, like Octoling and Ring Fit Trainee, so the hype levels shouldn't be as high as with the previous games' DLC run. It also helps that I feel most people have gotten used to the idea that Alear MIGHT be in, so it won't be too out of the blue like it was with Corrin and Byleth.
I still don't see Alear coming. If Sakurai himself noted that there's too many Fire Emblem characters and if Corrin and Byleth were chosen as promotional picks (something that again, Alear can't afford to have) and received that reception, it's still unlikely Sakurai (or even Nintendo) will choose them bar again, some revolutionary moveset potential.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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People keep suggesting this as if Scream Tail doesn't have a massive tail that Jigglypuff doesn't have while also being about two and a half times Jigglypuff's size.

It can't work as an echo.
I dunno. The tail doesn't really animate much, so implimenting it would be as simple as tweaking the model a bit and adding hair physics.

The size increase doesn't change the proportions any, so as far as I know, that doesn't break anything in terms of translating movesets and animations since everything just gets upscaled automatically. The result would be a Jigglypuff that has more range, but is also easier to hit. Dunno how that shakes out in terms of balance, but it doesn't sound too crazy, and as a bonus sets the two apart from the get go. Or the size difference can be ignored completely, especially if they just make it a costume (which isn't the proposed outcome, but a possibility nonetheless).
 
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