Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[jamesster445]

So… what series do you all think will only gain characters, and not lose any in a transition to a new game?

Kirby and Xenoblade

 

[Swamp Sensei]

As an aside from the cut talk, I was finally able to sit down and make an updated lil visual of newcomers that I've been feeling for the next game. If you've been paying attention to some of my talking points over the last few months I don't think anyone here would be that surprising, but what would you guys think of this lineup? Pokemon withstanding, I'm not convinced the Pokemon we'll get next Smash even exists yet.

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I'll try to place them in a greater 60ish roster context at some point but for now I'd rather people focus on what's here rather than what isn't - my slew of cuts is a conversation for another day I think (and I'm still working that out). I'll elaborate on things if anyone wants me to but this time didn't really feel like typing out all the redundant justification for some of the most obvious choices here (you know why Waluigi or Ring Fit are here, lol).

I'm curious as to what echo fighters you'll think we'll get.

 

[Louie G.]

I'm curious as to what echo fighters you'll think we'll get.

Octoling is on my echo fighter shortlist, that's why I didn't include them in this lineup. Outside of that I'm not totally sure? I think since we're kind of back to form with this roster there might be less of a compulsion to add them in the way Ultimate did, but I do believe there's an opportunity for some lower priority derivative adds toward the back end of production.

I guess I'd mention Shadow, but I think any Sonic character that gets added will just be treated as a full fledged newcomer. And that doesn't really jive with my late stage addition philosophy either, I imagine third party characters need to be negotiated further in advance (or delay the game like Sonic, lol). I'm not sure I believe any of the newcomers warrant echo fighters either. Perhaps returning echoes like Dark Samus could be slipped in later.

So honestly, maybe next game just adds a few semiclones instead? Because I think Ultimate achieved a pretty nice spread of echo fighters to appeal to fan demand, and I can't think of many characters who are missing and would be done justice this way. I can see us doing a Jigglypuff / Toon Link / Wolf situation again for low priority asset reuse-y newcomers but I feel that echoes will be less of a focus.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

So… what series do you all think will only gain characters, and not lose any in a transition to a new game?

I mean I'm hoping Kirby and Xenoblade fit into this camp. Splatoon and Pikmin only have one character so I don't think they count but I could definitely see them going that way, and Animal Crossing, since something as huge as New Horizons was probably warrants a character in itself. Number 2 after Mario Kart with 45 million units? Definitely huge, and I wouldn't be shocked if they were working on a follow-up right now for Switch 2, since it's been nearly two years since the final update I believe.

 

[SPEN18]

Late to the convo, but there's not really much that ZSS has over another unique character, in my opinion. On top of being a Samus variant, it's a rendition of the character that is rarely relevant to Metroid gameplay, not to mention controversial among fans, and the bulk of the resume outside of, like, special added content for a remake, is stuff like Easter eggs, gameover/clear screens, and cutscene appearances in stuff like Other M...not great. It's hard to shake that sense of her being "that weird thing we got because we couldn't get Ridley."

 

[Dukefire]

If I had to talk about some potential changes to Smash Bros, here's what i think.
1. Final Smashes being quicker stays to maintain the flow. Also, no controllable ones.
2. Character Roster will be affect one way or another since "Everyone is Here" seem to be a one and done thing.
3. Spirits or another form will stay instead of trophies as Sakurai said it was PAINFUL to create that many.
4. Hope some classical modes makes a return. Though, it may be adjusted depending on the next game's vision.
5. Hope the next title teaser brings back the hype once more when ready.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I'm not sure how how I feel about Sidon as a Smash choice. I like the dude. But, he feels very... Fan rostery? If that makes sense. And now that I know that Skull Kid, Midna and Impa dwarf him in popularity, I'd rather get one of them.

 

[SPEN18]

I'm not sure how how I feel about Sidon as a Smash choice. I like the dude. But, he feels very... Fan rostery? If that makes sense. And now that I know that Skull Kid, Midna and Impa dwarf him in popularity, I'd rather get one of them.

I also prefer Skull Kid / Midna / Impa over anyone from BotW/ToTK, but the latter might just be inevitable given how successful modern Zelda has been. Hopefully, we can find room for both, though it might be tough with so many franchises in the running for new characters. Agreed, though, on the point that Sidon gives off some of that fan roster vibe. I like him a lot as a character, too, actually, but he does come off a little awkward in the "yes, we're using this guy to showcase the BotW era in Smash" role.

 

[Louie G.]

I'm not sure how how I feel about Sidon as a Smash choice. I like the dude. But, he feels very... Fan rostery? If that makes sense. And now that I know that Skull Kid, Midna and Impa dwarf him in popularity, I'd rather get one of them.

Yeah I feel that, although to me playing to the longterm fan favorites exclusively and neglecting that the Switch has been the source of Zelda's greatest series growth in years feels more "fan roster-y" and less emblematic of what's currently going on for the series. I don't see many Zelda characters pop up outside this circle outside of Rauru, who has demonstrated to be relatively unpopular.

So is Sidon the right choice? I'm not sure, I'm still workshopping it. Clearly he's the source of a lot of skepticism, and I understand that. But if I went with Skull Kid or something on my roster, I feel like I'm just creating something everyone's seen before and that automatically telegraphs to me "okay, I'm probably wrong". The elusive "BOTW era pick" has always been difficult to pin down so if we get one I feel it's going to be at least a little surprising.

 

[RodNutTakin]

Well, feel free to elaborate! I posted it to spur on a conversation, anyway.

Waluigi and Ring Fit are the two I will say that I think you are right on the money with.

I'm keeping my feet planted on Impa being the choice for a new Zelda character, regardless of what side on the "Sheik replacement" debate others stand on. At this point she has had multiple combat-ready incarnations, and to me it feels like the solution to the "most non-Triforce wielders are one and done appearances" problem. I personally don't actually care too much as to who gets in as a new Zelda fighter, but this is just what my instinct tells me.

I can't see any idols outprioritizing playable Octolings in the game. Sure, Splatoon is big and has a lot of characters to its name, but so does Animal Crossing and that also got away with only two fighters in Ultimate. Idols and the like feel like a Smash 7 situation (or the more, unlikely situation that we get extra non-pack DLC newcomers that come primarily by themselves, like Corrin in 4 or Plant in Ultimate).

Something about Excitebike doesn't have that "pizzazz" for me, and I admit that might be because the Mach Rider exists as "the cooler, more versatile Excitebike" to me in terms of fighting potential (not helped by the random remix in Melee and the unnecessarily-updated design of the character also in Melee). But beyond that, I think it is just tough to determine the next "weird" pick, but this is something I will not hold against you at all. I guess this one is more just an outright disagree than me just being skeptical.

Now here is where things get messy for me here. Isaac, Tom Nook and to a lesser extent Oatchi are all picks that by themselves I wouldn't be skeptical about...but the way I see things, I feel like all three would be in competition for that last "base game first party" slot in my mind. On my prediction, I had Noah, Officer Howard, and Waddle Dee outprioritize these choices in a vaccuum; the first reflects the natural growth of an IP Nintendo started seriously cultivating over the Switch generation. The second is a character from a game that would add a new universe to Smash, is already combat-focused, and most people who tried it enjoyed it. The third is a character that I have been shown has fan demand comparable to Waluigi's, and I have been convinced enough that there is the possibility for the devs to cave in and add. Adding on Impa and the Octolings who I mentioned earlier, a high request and nebulous semi-clone in Dixie Kong, some third-parties which I will mention below, and Waluigi and Ring Fit who we both have on our predictions, on top of the number of characters I chose to keep for the base game roster (we're looking at something around 60-70 characters old and new for base here on my prediction), I feel like in my mind, that only leaves one more slot for a base game Nintendo character, one that I think will be primarily determined by fan push. I can see Isaac or maybe Tom get this spot, but there are a few others that I think will also compete with them over the spot. Oatchi, however...from day one, my instincts tell me he seems fit to be the perfect Assist Trophy. In this kind of situation, you'd honestly need to make a very good case to put him over some of the other names I could see getting this last spot.

Now for the third-parties. You have already been debated on Shadow over Tails, so I won't need to push Shadow further right now.

I am persistent on Zero having the silent advantage over other Capcom characters because of his Assist Trophy and the lasting popularity of both Zero himself and the MMX subseries (on top of being another swordfighter the devs can breathe easy with lolololololol), but even if you want to dismiss Zero's chances, I still have big room to doubt Capcom getting two unique newcomers at launch, and unfortunately both choices would be boring to me on top of that--another World Warrior and a total blank slate avatar. (As a side tangent, I do not consider the DQ Heroes to be a similar situation; while those games' protagonists are meant to be player self-inserts to a degree, the Heroes still have distinct and defined character designs and quirks to them, such as VIII's Hero having a rodent companion, and III's Hero canonically being an ancestor of I and II's Heroes. A better comparison would be adding a character representing the playable avatar from Final Fantasy XIV.)

This topic has been argued about multiple times, but I still cannot see a Toby Fox character making it to fighter status just yet. This is not me trying to downplay the man's two works by a ridiculous amount, but this is just another of my gut feelings that it will all be given a similar treatment to what happened to Shovel Knight last time, maybe with a bit more meat like a couple more arrangements to accompany Megalovania (and now I realize that Shovel Knight didn't get even a ported track in the Other category for Ultimate's base game). I actually at one point hedged my bets on Kris as a very late DLC newcomer, but with the glacial pace of new DR chapters, I doubt it unless we're getting like 5 Fighters' Passes worth of DLC newcomers.

 

[King Sonnn DeDeDoo]

Its probably illogical because it wouldn't necessarily make this happen, but part of the reason I want ZSS gone is because I think it sort of "type casts" regular Samus as this sort of floaty zoner archetype since ZSS is this agile character. I feel the floaty movement worked very well in 64 and Melee as its mainly based on Super Metroid, but I really want to see Samus be able to be agile in the power suit in smash.

It feels weird playing Samus is Dread who is super agile and then playing Smash Samus who somewhat feels like swimming through pudding. I understand that Smash Samus can't be 1 to 1 as Dread Samus for balance reasons, but I think she could use a little more pep in her step.

 

[DarthEnderX]

They'll never give him the Deku, Goron and Zora transformations.

They don't need to be Transformations. Just make them his Specials.

Neutral+B = Deku Bubble Blast
Side+B = Zora Double Cutters
Down+B = Goron Roll

 

[Swamp Sensei]

They don't need to be Transformations. Just make them his Specials.

Neutral+B = Deku Bubble Blast
Side+B = Zora Double Cutters
Down+B = Goron Roll

That seems like a lot of animations for a special move. You'd have to change form and back in the span of a few frames.

 

[DarthEnderX]

That seems like a lot of animations for a special move. You'd have to change form and back in the span of a few frames.

Or you could just have him wear the appropriate mask while they do the move.

Young Link should wear an askew Keaton mask like he does in HW anyway.

 

[King Sonnn DeDeDoo]

Generally I feel like they try to keep model switching down for characters for moves as I think it can hurt how much you can read whats going on in gameplay, especially with 4+ characters on a screen. The main characters I can think of the majorly change their models during gameplay is Sonic (Blue Orb), Pac-Man (his form that looks like the sprite), Corrin (weird arms and legs), and Inkling (squid form), although I'm sure there is others I'm forgetting.

3 of those are brightly colored simplified forms that are easy to see, and outside of the counter Corrin usually keeps some part of their normal model in tact while preforming moves.

 

[Ivander]

I'm not sure how how I feel about Sidon as a Smash choice. I like the dude. But, he feels very... Fan rostery? If that makes sense. And now that I know that Skull Kid, Midna and Impa dwarf him in popularity, I'd rather get one of them.

I mean, is Sidon any more fan roster-y than Cloud and frickin' Sephiroth? A roster with Cloud and Sephiroth and even Sora sounds exactly like the kind of fanmade roster a person would post on the internet in the late 2000s. Smash Ultimate is practically one of those people's dream rosters brought to life 10-13 years later.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Something to keep in mind is that Sakurai didn't even have Ridley on his radar till after Brawl(as he spoke of in an interview a long time back). We couldn't have gotten him instead of ZSS at that point. He wasn't even considered to begin with. Dark Samus? Maybe.

So she never felt weird, when we know it was her or... nothing. We wouldn't have really gotten anyone till Ultimate instead. That's not exactly endearing Metroid-wise for the roster. Ridley was clearly considered for Smash For, as another interviews talks about, but ultimately dismissed for various reasons. The way he plays as a hazard does suggest some attempt was done to make him playable, but didn't work. In fact, he didn't work until they created a new model they could feasibly shrink/enlarge without any issues. It's no surprise Ridley never came up as playable till then. He legitimately had a poor bodyshape to work with.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I mean, is Sidon any more fan roster-y than Cloud and frickin' Sephiroth? A roster with Cloud and Sephiroth and even Sora sounds exactly like the kind of fanmade roster a person would post on the internet in the late 2000s. Smash Ultimate is practically one of those people's dream rosters brought to life 10-13 years later.

Bad comparison.

Once people knew Final Fantasy was on the table, Sephiroth and Sora weren't out there choices anymore.

Moreover, I don't mean fan rostery in a sense that characters appeal to fans. I mean fan rostery in a sense that it's trying to fulfill a need without really satisfying the need. It's like throwing Anna onto a roster because people who don't play Fire Emblem think she's a big deal.

 

[Louie G.]

I'm keeping my feet planted on Impa being the choice for a new Zelda character, regardless of what side on the "Sheik replacement" debate others stand on. At this point she has had multiple combat-ready incarnations, and to me it feels like the solution to the "most non-Triforce wielders are one and done appearances" problem. I personally don't actually care too much as to who gets in as a new Zelda fighter, but this is just what my instinct tells me.

I understand the movement for Impa. This is kind of a pick I've always been a bit stubbornly opposed to putting too much stock in, since it has always read to me as something of a desperation to find the "sensible" option. Again, I get it, but I don't know if any of Impa's singular appearances are demanding her to be playable over even those one or two shot characters who have left more of a prominent, lasting impression. Sidon is a choice that I'm really not all that confident in, I'm just kind of spitballing with Switch-era Zelda picks, but Impa is the kind of character I'm really just gonna have to see to believe.

I can't see any idols outprioritizing playable Octolings in the game. Sure, Splatoon is big and has a lot of characters to its name, but so does Animal Crossing and that also got away with only two fighters in Ultimate. Idols and the like feel like a Smash 7 situation (or the more, unlikely situation that we get extra non-pack DLC newcomers that come primarily by themselves, like Corrin in 4 or Plant in Ultimate).

Octolings will be playable, 100%. I'm just not convinced they will be fully original characters, so I left them off of this list on the assumption they will be clones. My dark horse scenario is just that Splatoon is a series that can easily justify two new faces after such tremendous growth, and Smash Ultimate pretty much just accounting for Splatoon 1 for the most part. Contrary to Animal Crossing, it is also a series that specializes in diverse combat. So yeah even though it could get by with two characters, I'm going out on a limb and advocating for it to get just a little more than what's "safe" to assume.

As for the idols themselves, when we're thinking about some of the most popular new faces to come out of the last decade then they ought to be in the conversation. Off the Hook is demonstrably the most popular of the three as well, and IMO just offer the best material. I think this is a very prominent and well loved part of the series that is easy to neglect but would make a lot of sense to see implemented proper.

Something about Excitebike doesn't have that "pizzazz" for me, and I admit that might be because the Mach Rider exists as "the cooler, more versatile Excitebike" to me in terms of fighting potential (not helped by the random remix in Melee and the unnecessarily-updated design of the character also in Melee). But beyond that, I think it is just tough to determine the next "weird" pick, but this is something I will not hold against you at all. I guess this one is more just an outright disagree than me just being skeptical.

This is how I felt for a while, but I came around on it. I also think Mach Rider is insanely cool, and for a while (still, kinda) they were my most wanted retro choice. But Excitebiker speaks more to me lately in the context of Smash, creating a clear, streamlined premise around a simple Nintendo classic a la Duck Hunt or Ice Climbers. And Excitebike remains one of the most prominent pieces of early Nintendo arcade / Famicom branding, perhaps the most significant absent from the game right now. I still really like Mach Rider, but part of me feels like it's "too much" for Smash when the simple premise of a permanently mounted biker is already enough material to build off of. But I'd really like either of them.

Now here is where things get messy for me here.

I'll say fair enough on Oatchi, I'm still not like 100% convinced and I also believe he'd make a fine Assist Trophy. But I also recognize the way Pikmin has become a central Nintendo brand, and I think it's ready to make the jump to a two character series. Oatchi has been a marketing machine, with plenty of merch to his name already, I'm seeing his face on juice pouches. I realize that this on its own doesn't warrant him to be playable, but I think it's worth considering just how much Pikmin's brand hinges on its creatures. Oatchi has kind of cemented this big new mascot that I think has a good deal of staying power. I'm not gonna die on this hill but I'll defend his placement.

Tom Nook and Isaac are characters I'm very confident about. Nook for his level of mascot omnipresence for not just Animal Crossing but Nintendo as a whole, and Isaac for his presumably strong ballot showing. For what it's worth, Nintendo doesn't pump out a lot of big new IPs anymore so I think it's feasible that we are able to pull back toward an older one. Golden Sun got a surprisingly solid showing in Ultimate, so I really think he's one of those characters that would have made it had the crop of newcomers been "normal". And Animal Crossing really speaks for itself. We can split hairs on how much potential Nook has on his own (I've defended it frequently, for what it's worth) but I seriously think AC's series growth is too massive not to account for. And Nook kind of took a backseat in New Leaf, but Horizons re-established him as a major player equivalent to Isabelle again. So I think the timing is right and if Tom Nook is on the table I see virtually no first party out-prioritizing him. Want to suggest also that casual audiences adore Animal Crossing, so similarly to Waluigi this is a character with a lot of pull toward those less intimately familiar with Nintendo.

Noah, Bandana Dee, Officer Howard. I guess the most I can say about this is the reverse of what you said to me, that in competition for these base slots I'm inclined to advocate for at least Isaac and Nook first. BWD has a strong case given his popularity, and I'm not opposed. He could replace Oatchi if you want, although I'm perpetually skeptical about Kirby's character lineup. I do acknowledge BWD's demand and frankly how much he deserves it at this point - particularly after Star Allies and Forgotten Land. He just narrowly misses the boat for me.

I'm less convinced on Noah, although I couldn't fault anyone for it. I just think people overestimate the necessity to have a Xenoblade 3 character on the roster. Xenoblade is still a relatively small series, and I don't mean to be harsh but XB3 did not rock the world the way XB2 did. I'm not saying this means it absolutely won't get a character, but that Pyra and Mythra are still viable representatives for XB's growth on the Switch. Consider this a character that I wouldn't be surprised about, but I'm personally not hedging my bets toward. And the same goes for Astral Chain, a game that has seen fairly decent success but I'm not convinced this is batting any higher than "AT level" first parties from Brawl era like Golden Sun or Sin & Punishment. Kind of a gut feeling, but I did acknowledge the relative lack of new Nintendo IP. So if they wanna pull something, or Sakurai feels inspired, then it's a decent option but IMO inessential.

I am persistent on Zero having the silent advantage over other Capcom characters because of his Assist Trophy and the lasting popularity of both Zero himself and the MMX subseries (on top of being another swordfighter the devs can breathe easy with lolololololol), but even if you want to dismiss Zero's chances, I still have big room to doubt Capcom getting two unique newcomers at launch, and unfortunately both choices would be boring to me on top of that

I'm sorry if they bore you, but I really don't see Zero being prioritized over Chun-Li. On his own I understand his value, and I get where you're coming from with his assets already being present in the game, but if we're expanding on mainstay third party series then Chun-Li is pretty much the absolute biggest no-brainer available. She's a character with strong crossover appeal, where being able to pit her against Peach or Samus feels like a selling point in its own right. She's one of the single most iconic video game characters absent from the game and pretty much justifies herself on her own star power, independent from being a second SF rep. Zero is great, but I personally think he gets eclipsed here and I don't see myself budging on that.

Monster Hunter I can go either way on. They aren't a character that I personally feel all that strong about. But MH already has a showing in Smash, and has seen sufficient growth in the time between Ultimate's release and the present day. It's absolutely massive overseas, MH World became Capcom's best selling game, and MH Rise was a hot Switch exclusive. If this doesn't happen I won't be surprised, I'll be convinced there really is just some reservation internally about making a generic Hunter playable, but I'm willing to give them one more chance.

This topic has been argued about multiple times, but I still cannot see a Toby Fox character making it to fighter status just yet. This is not me trying to downplay the man's two works by a ridiculous amount, but this is just another of my gut feelings that it will all be given a similar treatment to what happened to Shovel Knight last time

I get that, this is one of those things where I can't fault someone for just abiding by the status quo. We don't really know what the deal with indie fighters in next Smash will be, but I think Undertale is like... just WAY bigger than Shovel Knight. Compared to Undertale's viral worldwide success, its remarkable popularity in Japan, Shovel Knight is absolutely trumped. I personally feel this is a different case, where Undertale is straight up maybe the most crowd pleasing western character that can be added from an overseas perspective. And I think it's fair game for base roster just because the negotiations for indie properties are probably much less difficult and Toby has already been a very willing participant. IMO this is a great bang for your buck pick.

As for Kris, I just don't really get this perspective. Undertale has had nearly 10 years to establish its legacy and popularity and Deltarune simply hasn't and likely won't surpass that. I'm absolutely loving everything about Deltraune so far, but if we got a character I'm certain it would just be from Undertale. At least for next game, maybe by Smash 7 Deltarune will have firmly planted its full release as Toby's magnum opus.

Thank you for the thoughtful response though, genuinely. I disagree with you on a lot of this but I appreciate that you put this amount of thought into my choices, and I do think you bring up valid points. Lot of them are just "could go either way", but I understand some of the reservations.

 

[ninjahmos]

If Raiden (Metal Gear) ever got into Smash, do you think they could use both of his designs from MGS2 and Metal Gear Rising? I mean, I doubt they could, but maybe they could give him a unique mechanic where he could switch between CQC Mode (His Jab for that could be his PPK combo from MGS2) and High Frequency Blade Mode.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I mean, is Sidon any more fan roster-y than Cloud and frickin' Sephiroth? A roster with Cloud and Sephiroth and even Sora sounds exactly like the kind of fanmade roster a person would post on the internet in the late 2000s. Smash Ultimate is practically one of those people's dream rosters brought to life 10-13 years later.

Me specifically.

It feels like a fan roster i would have come up with.

Thats why i love this roster.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

I'll say fair enough on Oatchi, I'm still not like 100% convinced and I also believe he'd make a fine Assist Trophy. But I also recognize the way Pikmin has become a central Nintendo brand, and I think it's ready to make the jump to a two character series. Oatchi has been a marketing machine, with plenty of merch to his name already, I'm seeing his face on juice pouches. I realize that this on its own doesn't warrant him to be playable, but I think it's worth considering just how much Pikmin's brand hinges on its creatures. Oatchi has kind of cemented this big new mascot that I think has a good deal of staying power. I'm not gonna die on this hill but I'll defend his placement.

Spoiler: Pikmin 4 stuff

Especially with Moss staying behind on PNF-404 even after you take Olimar with you back home (since I feel like Moss would be an alt either way, as one for Oatchi, or with Leafling Olimar or potentially even Louie riding along if Oatchi comes with the Rescue Corps recruit). Feels like they're setting it up so Moss can potentially help other people who end up on PNF-404 and keep the Oatchi style of gameplay no matter who comes back, be it Olimar or a brand new character.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I'm curious as to what echo fighters you'll think we'll get.

I think these have a decent shot:

10e. Ninten [Ness]
11e. Black Shadow [Captain Falcon]
27e. Galacta Knight [Meta Knight]
31e. Liquid Snake [Snake]
36e. Dixie Kong [Diddy Kong]
38e. Shadow [Sonic]
46e. Bass or Protoman [Megaman]
61e. Zack [Cloud]
63e. Jeanne [Bayonetta]
64e. Octolings [Inklings]

If Raiden (Metal Gear) ever got into Smash, do you think they could use both of his designs from MGS2 and Metal Gear Rising?

You might get MGS2 as an alt costume, but I'm sure his moveset will focus on Revengeance Raiden.