Midnight Ops Mafia: Game Thread. Game Over!

[Rajam]

Although, btw Xivii If you had not unclaimed then scum would have thought there was a traitor when there isn't. So your unclaim did help them. If there is a traitor then there is 1 ninja shot and scum would know that Xivii was lying after Fonti claimed, in which case they probably assume that Xivii is traitor.

Lets run some numbers:

We know there is a town visitor:
0 V / 0 Ch / 0 T
1 V / 0 Ch / 0 T -> 2 ninja shots
0 V / 1 Ch / 0 T
0 V / 0 Ch / 1 T
1 V / 1 Ch / 0 T -> 3 ninja shots
1 V / 0 Ch / 1 T -> 1 ninja shots
0 V / 1 Ch / 1 T
1 V / 1 Ch / 1 T -> 2 ninja shots

-> Scum has either 1, 2 or 3 ninja shots


But we also know there is no chocolate (unless Zen re-claims, in which case i dont even)
1 V / 0 Ch / 0 T -> 2 ninja shots
1 V / 1 Ch / 0 T
1 V / 0 Ch / 1 T -> 1 ninja shot
1 V / 1 Ch / 1 T

-> Scum has either 1 or 2 ninja shots


Now, with this conclusion, lets go back in time a bit to the moment in which Zen still didn't unclaim, and run the numbers from scum perspective thinking there were both a visitor and a chocolate:

Scum has 1 ninja shot:
1 V / 0 Ch / 1 T
0 V / 1 Ch / 0 T

Scum would know something's fishy and that either fontisian was lying or Zen was lying. Most likely scum would've bet Zen was the liar. In which case they'd know he is a traitor, so they wouldn't have NKilled him, and therefore Zen dropping the claim fearing a NKill isn't a thing. And also, Zen dropping the claim to 'unconfuse' scum wasnt necessary at all

Scum has 2 ninja shots:
1 V / 0 Ch / 0 T
1 V / 1 Ch / 1 T

If scum thought there were both a visitor and a chocolate then they would've realized there had to be a traitor. Zen dropping the claim means no traitor. If Zen is traitor, then there has to be a chocolate, but no one has claimed/cclaimed. Also, Zen dropping the chocolate claim means no traitor and puts Zen at risk of a NKill. Zen dropping the chocolate claim doesn't help scum at all in this scenario (only tells them there is no traitor...)


Conclusion: Zen is not traitor

This is important, anyone thinking Zen could be traitor needs to check this

Note that the existence of a traitor is still possible if scum has 1 ninja shot, but is not Zen anyways.

Do we know if traitor is aware of how many ninja shots the main scum team has?

@UtopianPozin: Does a potential traitor know how many ninja shot scum has?

 

[Rajam]

'Xplain yourself plz.

You weren't much of a presence yerterDay but I still think you're town and wouldnt lynch

 

[Rajam]

This is kinda concerning, considering they only had two at max to begin with. Why wouldn't they have used them by now? I feel like this implies scum is probably townread, and hasn't been worried about being tracked, right? Or am I getting too paranoid?

Why are we assuming scum has used ninja shots since N1?

As Chaco pointed out, NKilling town-firmed fontisian was priority for scum, I think it's kinda obvious

 

[Z25]

Xivii : Why did you decide to recant your claim? Why at that particular time? What were you hoping to gain?



That post in particular is a discussion I would have rather had during D2 but never got around to it because of hammer came before I was able to. I don't think we should be in a hurry to lynch anyone. Anyway, I'm not sure if I want to lynch Chaco yet today. I would probably prefer Rajam at this moment and if Rajam flips scum then I think Chaco is likely scum as well.



That comment is based on their behaviours on the wagons. I don't recall any particular between them that I've perceived as scummy, though I've found Raj's interactions very difficult to evaluate since they have been several days removed from what's actually going on, so they always come across as kind of stilted to me. Both do have interesting interactions with FrozenFlame, however... Frozen's read on Rajam (Jack) is shady. Frozen was pushing Exlight (somi) slot. On balance, I think that Rajam is more likely just mafia and Exlight is more likely just Town (more on Exlight below).



Exlight I have come around to the idea that they're probably Town. Frozen's push on Exlight feels a little too commital to me to be plausibly from a buddy. There were several low content slots to choose from if that was his intention; he could have just as easily gone for z25 slot or Mala slot or Jack slot. I think somitomi was maybe in kind of a sweet spot of being (probably) not mafia, but also not completely inactive which people seemed reluctant to push. For awhile I was considering that Exlight had a decent chance of being traitor, but they've posted a number of things that I just don't believe someone with that role PM in their hands would ever say. Most likely he's Town.

I am leaning scum on z25 at the moment. I don't like his push on Xivii and there are a number of posts in the latter parts of D2 that look very suspicious surrounding his reactions to BoomFrog and his claim. The only thing that I think is particularly Town motivating for him is that his slot is 3DS, whose play was so... well... it was what it was, but it didn't strike me as likely coming from mafia. That said, given that Frozen had very limited activity, if 3DS had another low activity buddy it's possible that he could have felt abandoned and given up.



Yeah, I'm usually not free on Saturday/Sundays except in the evenings. This is something that is true in pretty much all of my games, it's just aggravated this particular game because the deadlines are on the weekend for some reason.

Based on that Rajam posts. If they flip scum what do you think of my slot?

Rajam's previous hammer wagon had Chaco and Laser on it, while Z25 stayed away.
Chaco was the responsible for hammering but right after they realized what happened they desperately backed up and Unvoted+requested Poy to not consider it, which is a pretty weird attitude because if someone is willing to put someone at Hammer-1 then they shouldn't panic over someone getting hammered.

This kinda points more to a Rajam+Chaco+Z25 team, with maybe Z25 being the traitor.

There’s also a possibility if no traitor based in zen’s theory that they went for fonti, because they are sitting well with ninja slots.

 

[ExLight]

@UtopianPozin: Does a potential traitor know how many ninja shot scum has?

he already answered this, the answer is no

 

[Rajam]

* TOPIC *

After posting this I'm thinking though: Have we entertained the possibility of goon-Zen or Rolecop-Zen?

If scum has 1 Ninja shot, then the possibilities from their perspective were:
1 V / 0 Ch / 1 T
0 V / 1 Ch / 0 T

Wouldn't the chocolate role be safe to claim after fontisian claimed visitor?

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

@UtopianPozin: Does a potential traitor know how many ninja shot scum has?

No.

 

[Rajam]

After posting this I'm thinking though: Have we entertained the possibility of goon-Zen or Rolecop-Zen?

If scum has 1 Ninja shot, then the possibilities from their perspective were:
1 V / 0 Ch / 1 T
0 V / 1 Ch / 0 T

Wouldn't the chocolate role be safe to claim after fontisian claimed visitor?

^ Questions that surge would be:
- Zen's participation on frozen's lynch
- Why would Zen drop the chocolate claim

 

[Rajam]

The only case I see Xivii yeeting main scum over himself would be the goon, and even then I don't think its a likely thing, he also could of jumped on Laserguy at that point, since I really don't see us getting all three viable wagons as scum day 1. I don't see him yeeting the roleblocker which stops Fonti from being confirmed. I don't think traitor Xivii ever yeets an actual scummate PR over himself.

I support this
I dont think Zen is scum

 

[Trisscar]

You weren't much of a presence yerterDay but I still think you're town and wouldnt lynch

Why do you think I'm town.

 

[ExLight]

Zen dropping the claim means no traitor. If Zen is traitor, then there has to be a chocolate, but no one has claimed/cclaimed.

Scum has 1 ninja shot:
1 V / 0 Ch / 1 T

? what about this scenario?

 

[ExLight]

just for the record I don't think Xiivi is the traitor either, but I feel like poking this hole

 

[Rajam]

? what about this scenario?

1st quote is explicitly under the assumption of 2 ninja shots. You're mixing things

 

[Rajam]

Why do you think I'm town.

- The way frozen talked about your slot
- Your vote on frozen (timing)
- I also think you're a PR. Happy? (don't confirm/unconfirm this in any way obviously)

 

[Trisscar]

Why on earth do you think I'm a PR?

 

[Darkpit54]

I wanted to see what people thought about the likely hood of a traitor. I also wanted to stir things up a bit since novel content wasn't being produced at that point. We essentially had the executions already lined up so we weren't really producing a high amount of alignment indicative information.

These answers baffle me because you initially wanted to flash-yeet, you clearly didn't care about novel content. What changed?

how are you so sure he's confirmed? I have to revisit the scenarios to consider a choco fakeclaim, but I think he was only confirmed if you know how many ninja shots mafia has

He was considered "confirmed" by Fonti's reasoning. Knowing ninja shots would actually unconfirm him, as they wouldn't line up. His claim wasn't real, and no cc indicates no chocolate this game.

Hey Masons, if you claim consider claiming the opposite role.
If scum wants to kill one of you more than the other they won't know who is what and might mess it up.

No need to claim which mason at all, honestly

If Zen is traitor, then there has to be a chocolate

How? I was following this logic up to here

Why are we assuming scum has used ninja shots since N1?

Why wouldn't they? They would want to avoid being tracked, right?

Wouldn't the chocolate role be safe to claim after fontisian claimed visitor?

Fonti claimed after Xivii. So while this is true, it isn't really applicable

 

[Rajam]

Why on earth do you think I'm a PR?

I'll purposefully avoid giving an answer to this.

 

[Rajam]

Darkpit54 If I were scum with limited ninja shots I'd seriously consider saving some for late game, where from a pure probabilistic PoV it's more likely tracker could hit us

 

[Rajam]

How? I was following this logic up to here

Also Darkpit54 : that came from the assumption of 2 ninja shots, in which case there are both chocolate & traitor, or neither of those

 

[Rajam]

Fonti claimed after Xivii. So while this is true, it isn't really applicable

I totally forgot this. Thanks for the clarification

 

[LaserGuy]

Based on that Rajam posts. If they flip scum what do you think of my slot?

Which post(s) do you mean?

 

[LaserGuy]

pedit. Oh, you mean Rajam saying you're scum but I'm the priority?

Doesn't affect my read that much. Scum read each other as scum all the time.

 

[Z25]

pedit. Oh, you mean Rajam saying you're scum but I'm the priority?

Doesn't affect my read that much. Scum read each other as scum all the time.

True but that slot has been labeling you and me as scum for a good amount of time now. Which is why I asked for your thoughts.

 

[Chaco]

I really feel with comfortability of wagons and such that it’s very likely at least one scum is being townread, and has been.

 

[Rajam]

I really feel with comfortability of wagons and such that it’s very likely at least one scum is being townread, and has been.

Names?

 

[Xivii]

These answers baffle me because you initially wanted to flash-yeet, you clearly didn't care about novel content. What changed?

Nothing. I wanted to end the day, others did not. So I decided to utilize that time.

 

[Xivii]

I wanted to see if anyone would move to defend either Boom or Rajam now that there was an opportunity to do so.

What's your assessment of how the votes played out after your switch?

Boom's #1610 is a very BoomFrog style of post.

Also what about this post made you drop him to your weakest scumread?

 

[Xivii]

Lots of effort catching up and kinda on the same wavelength as me in some points

Which points are you on the same wavelength?

 

[Chaco]

Names?

Gotta analyze that’s just overall speculation from game feel.

 

[Xivii]

Z was hella late, but I feel like his overall content had pinged me as more town here.

What posts pinged you as town up to this point?

 

[Xivii]

Tunnel vision would be a reason why you're still alive. As someone who is townreading you, and seemingly an universal town-read from yersterDay, I'm telling you: drop the tunnel, look somewhere else. Scum left you alive for a reason: you were wrong

Rajam why did you make this post?

 

[LaserGuy]

What's your assessment of how the votes played out after your switch?

The most interesting vote was z25's move to BoomFrog in #1395. z25 had Boom at null in #1330 with Rajam somewhat lower than that, and overall those reads were very wishy-washy so I was a little surprised at him immediately jumping at Boom. He moved a little deeper into my scum pool as a result.

Darkpit and Mala also moved away from Rajam rather quickly after, though I'm less convinced this is significant because I have a pretty solid Townread on both of them. Rajam was then run back up by a wagon that I feel is Town-motivated, except possibly a late bus by Chaco, who then moved back to Boom once more when the hammer was averted.

Also what about this post made you drop him to your weakest scumread?

BoomFrog's reaction to your claim felt genuine to me. I also felt that his frustration was bleeding into his reads--that he believed his reaction was legitimate and townie and therefore everyone else with the same reaction must also be Town--was something that I felt might be indicative of Town!Boom. It's a reaction that BoomFrog could possibly have faked, but it came across as townie to me.

Other players were also looking worse to me at the time.

 

[Rajam]

This is problematic, because I think you replied to my questioning before you reacted to Xivii's earlier mega reveal. That would mean your reaction was faked.

No time to check back and confirm and quote stuff. It's family time right now. But Z25 is scum if I'm right.

Unvote

I don't exactly know what BoomFrog meant here, but seems something important. Anyone checked? What did BF meant by this?

 

[Malakandra]

What posts pinged you as town up to this point?

I think it was more his content overall. He didn't seem opportunistic to me, and I felt his catch up posts were actually pretty good. He seemed more involved and willing to be suspicious of people than in Sumting.

 

[Malakandra]

I don't exactly know what BoomFrog meant here, but seems something important. Anyone checked? What did BF meant by this?

I'm pretty sure this is regards to Z25's reaction to Xivii retracting his claim. IIRC, Xivii retracted his claim, Z25 posted about something else, than posted about Xivii. I think Boom was saying that z25 had a strong reaction to Xivii's retraction, but it was fake because he posted something else first.

I disagree on that point because Z didn't seem that heated or emotional in the post Boom was talking about, and I know sometimes the pages don't load all the posts properly. I'd have to go back and check to see how much time had passed between Xivii's post and Z's though for that point.

 

[Darkpit54]

I'm trying to figure out who could be scum together. So far this is where I'm at, let me know if you have any input lol

I don't see a universe where Xivii is scum with Chaco or Raj, due to the pushes and flash yeet requests. Xivii could easily be scum with Mala; don't forget the Raxx weirdness. I also don't see Chaco as scum with Mala, due to his push on Raxx d1. Possibly with Laser due to the light d1 push, but I'm unsure

Raj could easily be scum with Chaco or Exlight for reasons better explained by Laser above.

I don't see Ex being scum with Triss or Laser due to the drunk posting fiasco, but I suppose it could be scummate distancing. I don't think Ex and Chaco are scummates due to Ex's push on him.

Z is unlikely to be scummates with Ex due to Ex's push on him. Not sure about Raj, as Boom said, as Raj seemed fully willing to yeet him yesterDay. Could possibly be scum with Mala, or another person being townread. I'm probably the most unsure of connections with this slot.

Aside from Triss, who I'm struggling to connect to anyone. If Triss is scum, it's probably with others being townread, like Xivii or Mala.

This all excludes traitor, obviously, as those interactions would very different. This doesn't imply that I think all of these are scum obviously, but I think it's important analyze everyone's interactions in case we've been overlooking someone

 

[Rajam]

Rajam why did you make this post?

I was surprised scum didnt nkill power-players / townie players. Up to that point my impression was that Chaco was one of those and I was also trying to figure out and read a bit on the nkill. One of the things that passed through my head is that scum didnt kill power/town roles because they were wrong on their reads

 

[Z25]

I'm pretty sure this is regards to Z25's reaction to Xivii retracting his claim. IIRC, Xivii retracted his claim, Z25 posted about something else, than posted about Xivii. I think Boom was saying that z25 had a strong reaction to Xivii's retraction, but it was fake because he posted something else first.

I disagree on that point because Z didn't seem that heated or emotional in the post Boom was talking about, and I know sometimes the pages don't load all the posts properly. I'd have to go back and check to see how much time had passed between Xivii's post and Z's though for that point.

I pointed this out yesterday but Boom’s point made no sense.

It was like 5 minutes between those posts and as you can see between the two, both were a little long which is why. In reality it was more like two minutes of me actually seeing and responding, I just had to finish typing my first post first.

 

[Rajam]

I'm pretty sure this is regards to Z25's reaction to Xivii retracting his claim. IIRC, Xivii retracted his claim, Z25 posted about something else, than posted about Xivii. I think Boom was saying that z25 had a strong reaction to Xivii's retraction, but it was fake because he posted something else first.

I disagree on that point because Z didn't seem that heated or emotional in the post Boom was talking about, and I know sometimes the pages don't load all the posts properly. I'd have to go back and check to see how much time had passed between Xivii's post and Z's though for that point.

Sorry for delegating the work on you but do you have the quotes BoomFrog was talking about?

 

[Malakandra]

1) because I had to finalize some things and actually type it out. Hence why I said had reads but may not have finished typing it out before deadline. Hence why my vote was late.

If you read more and saw Zen’s post tagging me to vote and finish my list later, this would be obvious.

2) I didn’t finish typing it out before deadline which is why i put out right away today.

I reviewed him again as he had a lack of content, and more of his posts just felt off from town jack. He didn’t see to be trying to much.

Like I just said, I had a reads list in my head. It was not written out. I’m figured that was obvious based on my later points.

A lot was going on EOD that I did not get to finish finalizing it. Not to mention the swap out of jack made me have to rewrite, as well as the ex swap. I was going to talk more on their original slots but with switch ins it became kinda of pointless. I didn’t finish it in time due to everything I had to take into account as I formulated my opinions and views.

First two Z25 posts after Xivii retracts

Zen’s claim revoke is very problematic.

It’s exactly what I talked abo day one, on how Boom’s post telling chocolate to claim right away or they couldn’t be proven if claiming later. Which Zen specifically waited till later to do so, making that sketchy. However no counter claim seemed to pay it off.

Again though, I mentioned scum Zen could easily take the gambit that there was no chocolate. The ninja shots if he was scum could give him confidence to do so.

That whole claim was just shady. I let it slide due to no counter claim, but I don’t know.

Zen is also the same guy who was town and faked multiple cop checks so I don’t even know how he plays so reckless.

But you know what, I’d rather get answers from him once and for all. Ran can wait, and so can boom.


Vote: Xivii

Although I have a feeling he’s traitor, but scum would make his own gambit seems more plausible.

Z addressing the Xivii retraction