I didn't say Cloud's neutral was bad (I would never argue this), but I do stand by my claim that Mewtwo's neutral is better than Cloud's in this matchup (and comparable overall IMO) -- for the following reasons:
Mewtwo threatens Cloud more than Cloud's threatens Mewtwo on a confirm from neutral.
Mewtwo has better aerial mobility and comparable aerial frame data -- very important since Cloud usually relies on this and when he can't he's in trouble (Pika for instance). Cloud also has pretty weak grounded options against a heavy-punish character.
Not Neutral related:
Mewtwo's ridiculous gimping/edge-guarding scares Cloud into saving Limit for recovery, limiting his kill options
Mewtwo is impossible to gimp or ledge-guard (which Cloud usually excels at):
More detail:
While Disjoints help Cloud -- Cloud's aerial frame data isn't better than Mewtwo's anymore. I'd also argue he's not that much better on the ground, he has no particularly great tilts, his throws aren't nearly as threatening -- it usually doesn't matter because of safe aerial pressure and good mobility, but Mewtwo matches him on those fronts -- and has a really sick punish game.
His aerial mobility is MUCH worse than Mewtwo's. Cloud doesn't have any aerials that are as commanding as Mewtwo's fair (he usually has uair -- but it's not as good in this matchup) and Cloud's strength is usually great damage off of his aerials and strong space control-- but that's gutted here since Mewtwo's floatiness/aerial mobility/air dodge means that Mewtwo isn't really too afraid of Cloud's usual U-air shenanigans and can play that same game at least as well.
Cloud's main kill move against mewtwo without LB (Forward Smash) has a lot of start up and is extremely punishable. Against less punish heavy characters this is less of a weakness -- but Mewtwo can really make Cloud pay for a baited aerial, blocked approach, or whiffed kill attempt. Cloud has a lot of trouble dealing with Mewtwo's shield because his approaches aren't that safe, his projectile pressure does't work, and Mewtwo can pretty safely approach with shadow ball pressure, a four frame aerial, and really strong range.
Cloud has a lot of trouble landing his kills or gimping Mewtwo -- while Mewtwo threatens Cloud severely every time he's off the stage. This constrains Cloud's limit usage and further limits is kill options.
Mewtwo converts against Cloud better than the other way around. All of Mewtwo's combos work, Cloud's combos don't work on Mewtwo
As for recent 1.1.4 Mewtwo showings:
M2K vs. Mew^2 is clearly a case of M2K being off his game, but it does showcase some of the above points. There is no way the match-up is that bad for Cloud -- and M2K made a lot of really bad mistakes (he kept jumping off the ledge to try and gimp which is just... no), but Mew^2 shut down a lot of M2K's options.
Mew^2 does well against other Cloud's in his locals. Void gave ZeRo's cloud some issues on stream. Blue's been doing well against Cloud in a pretty competitive region... and if you just watch the matches on stream you'll see that Cloud struggles here a lot more than he does in most of his matchups.
I haven't followed him as closely, but my understanding is Rich Brown is doing pretty well for himself (and Mewtwo) too.
Anyway I don't consider 60/40 that bad (Maybe because I come from the older Guilty Gear games and we'd have loved a 60/40 matchup there...) since I think pikachu is a very anti-mewtwo character (sorry if that wasn't clear in my OP). I also think the notion that Sheik was really super hard for Mewtwo came from pre 1.1.3 when she completely shut him out because his moves didn't work. Blue is on the record stating he didn't feel that was a particularly bad match-up post-patch. I agree -- obviously all match-ups were in sheik's favor pre-patch, but Mewtwo held his own. floatiness made it hard for her to confirm kills, fast aerials/good aerial neutral let Mewtwo score fair kills and keep her at bay better than the majority of the cast. Sheik had a lot of options taken away which really boost Mewtwo here: Her Fair lost range, his is better than hers for zoning now and this is huge. One of the reasons the match-up was hard for mewtwo pre-patch was sheik's absurd neutral game owing to the "beat everything" nature of fair. Her other kill confirms are so much less consistent due to the dthrow/fthrow nerfs, add Mewtwo's floatiness and I sheik will really struggle for a kill now. If it was 60/40 before (and it was at least as bad as Pika), I think it's 50/50 or better now.
And I'm not claiming this patch made Mewtwo high tier -- 1.1.3 did. Those were MASSIVE buffs -- and they were spot on. This patch is nice quality of life adjustments, they help but they don't fundamentally change the character -- 1.1.3 did. I will readily admit if he wasn't already high tier, then he's not after 1.1.5 (Though the high tier nerfs help him, they help everyone else too) I just think he already was, and I believe the rise of Mewtwo at locals is a strong signal. Not proof -- the proof will come, but a very strong signal.
Ultimately we could go back and forth like this all day -- but one of us will be proven out via upcoming tournament results. I'm confident it'll be me, but if Mewtwo doesn't keep getting results I'll be the first one to admit I was wrong.
The fact that you think Cloud can't juggle us and that Cloud can't get good confirms makes me wonder if you've fought Clouds.
At low %s Cloud gets 24%+ out of any confirm and U-Air true combos out of almost all of his moves (N-Air, Falling U-Air, Correctly Spaced D-Air). Cloud is heavy and Mewtwo is light, so Cloud doingn 24% is almost the equivalent of Mewtwo doing 40% which he doesn't do out of any confirm unless getting solid reads or tech chases.
Good Clouds will not jump to juggle you, they will SH close to the ground with U-Air, any air dodge means you're falling with Air Dodge lag which means they will still get the U-Air. Sure Mewtwo has a los of tricks down his sleeve like Teleport and B-Reversing Confusion but Cloud can still read those, you make it sound like Mewtwo gets a free pass out of his juggles, which he doesn't.
Locals don't mean much unless it's against a good player. I am placing decently high at locals and regionals but it's due to skill more than "Mewtwo bears every single character out there".
Mewtwo has better frame data in the air? Have you seen Cloud's frame data? Mewtwo cannot challenge Cloud from above or below him, EVER. He can only challenge Cloud when directly in front of him which Cloud can just avoid being in.
I think the matchup is close to 45:55 (Cloud's favor) since Mewtwo has a lot of things that help him deal with Cloud. The matchup is mostly about baiting and punishing.
Also Cloud gets nothing out of his tilts? He gets an assured 30-40% and a juggle scenario if he lands one U-Tilt. And U-Tilt relatively safe on shield. PP U-Tilt is a crazy approach option. F-Tilt kills every early and D-Tilt puts us in a juggle.
I don't know what to tell you, if Mewtwo was so good, he wouldn't have as many bad matchups as he has and if he didn't have as many bad matchups, a lot more people would have already picked him up. Excepting Rich Brown (who played Mewtwo as a pocket) everyone who uses Mewtwo used him before 1.1.3, so all these "magnificent buffs" have not changed the opinion of even one single top player.
Zero placed him at 36th (counting DPit), Nairo around 30th. ESAM thinks he might be top 15 after 1.1.5 but not before.
Basically every top player agreed on Mewtwo being mid tier before this patch, most of them considering him in the lower half of mid tier.
I myself think he is in the upper half of mid tier and this patch pushed him to the very top of mid tier, but I feel like he still lacking to make it into high tier. I think he has a lot of undeveloped meta and a whole lot of possibilities ahead, and in time he will reach high tier, possibly. But he isn't going to be top 15 in the game tbh.