Mario Match up discussion

[mars16]

Mario match up discussion

 

[A2ZOMG]

Warning: Pure theorycraft ahead. I have not extensively seen all of the following matchups that I am about to list.

Okay, let me start off with guesses as to what Mario's hardest matchups are on default settings:

ZSS
Marth/Lucina
Duck Hunt
Diddy
Metaknight
Sheik

These characters are generally hard for Mario to approach and difficult for Mario to trap, and usually can edgeguard him reliably. Chances are, you aren't very likely to beat these characters if they are played really well simply because they have more situations where they exploit you than situations where you can exploit them.

High tier characters that Mario can fight relatively fairly in contrast include:

Yoshi
Sonic
Fox
Rosalina
Pac-Man
Lucario
Little Mac

These characters from what I've seen don't shut down Mario's approach really hard as long as you play carefully and block things that you are meant to block, and Mario generally can try to even the score by outplaying them with FLUDD/Cape edgeguards. This doesn't mean Mario has the advantage. But these matches overall shouldn't feel like outrageously unfair fights.

Matchups that Mario MIGHT win:

Ganondorf
Doc
Robin
Palutena
Ike

Most of these characters...for whatever reason, are characters that Mario can actually camp, and they may also do really poorly against Mario's close range pressure without being able to really wall him out in midrange. And several of them are also really easy for Mario to gimp.

vs everyone else I believe is mostly 45/55 in favor of most other characters, a few other matchups potentially being even. I don't think Mario has many favorable matchups generally speaking though.

I have some specific ideas for approaching individual matchups, but keep in mind you should take matchup theory from me with a grain of salt given I don't actually have the game yet. I'm just throwing this post out here to generate discussion about matchups that I believe may be important to think about.

 

[MrM]

From my experience with the game mario has trouble with Zss D3 Rosalina lucina/marth

Zss: is hard to edgeguard and shes fast enough to not get camped her range beats ours by far and she can edgeguard mario well

D3: cant get camped cause he has multiple jumps and beats mario in air combat out ranges us hes hard to edgeguard and can edgeguard us well

Rosalina: luma can block fireballs so camping doesnt work she doesnt edgeguard mario too well while we can cape her upb if you force her out far enough

Lucina/marth : can cut through fireballs and outranges us i think they have a easier time edge guarding us while its fairly difficult for us to

 

[A2ZOMG]

D3: cant get camped cause he has multiple jumps and beats mario in air combat out ranges us hes hard to edgeguard and can edgeguard us well

Rosalina: luma can block fireballs so camping doesnt work she doesnt edgeguard mario too well while we can cape her upb if you force her out far enough

Unless I missed something, you can try to rush D3 down. He doesn't have very good OOS options or mobility. Yes his F-tilt is hard to space around, but once you get in, D3 doesn't have many options to really get you off him. Caping and Fireballing his recovery is also really strong, and FLUDDing him if he tries to recover high seems decent.

You shouldn't be trying to camp against Rosalina. You just should be rushing her and going for B-throw, and just remember to Cape Luma Shot if she gets cheeky with it. Respect the range on her pokes and in theory, I see this as being one of Mario's better high tier matchups partly because Rosalina is relatively easy for Mario to juggle when Luma is gone, while Mario actually has okay options for fighting around Luma when B-throw can be used safely to swat away Luma.

 

[MrM]

Unless I missed something, you can try to rush D3 down. He doesn't have very good OOS options or mobility. Yes his F-tilt is hard to space around, but once you get in, D3 doesn't have many options to really get you off him. Caping and Fireballing his recovery is also really strong, and FLUDDing him if he tries to recover high seems decent.

You shouldn't be trying to camp against Rosalina. You just should be rushing her and going for B-throw, and just remember to Cape Luma Shot if she gets cheeky with it. Respect the range on her pokes and in theory, I see this as being one of Mario's better high tier matchups partly because Rosalina is relatively easy for Mario to juggle when Luma is gone, while Mario actually has okay options for fighting around Luma when B-throw can be used safely to swat away Luma.

As for d3 the one i fought recovered low and one he upb he instantly grabs the ledge really hard to edge guard

For rosa i was aggressive but my opponent used luma well to guard himself however i will try the bthrow cause dthrow got me hit by luma thanks for the reply

 

[MrM]

Anyone know the samus mu?
I played one in for glory and got stomped close games but i lost more than i won

 

[younggunzgst]

Anyone know the samus mu?
I played one in for glory and got stomped close games but i lost more than i won

I've played a few Samus players and the most important thing is to apply pressure. I get in there with a lot of nairs, double bairs and some fireball spam to counter missiles

 

[kirby509]

How does Mario deal with Ness? I played against one earlier and I was completely destroyed.

 

[A2ZOMG]

How does Mario deal with Ness? I played against one earlier and I was completely destroyed.

Force him to respect U-smash by spacing it really well against his aerials. Be conservative with combo strings and end them with Up-B early so you avoid getting interrupted by his N-air. KO him either with fresh D-smash at around 115ish I think, or by edgeguarding with FLUDD.

 

[BSP]

Sheik has given me the most trouble so far. She beats us solidly at the boxing game, combos just as well, if not better, and is just...better. I don't really think we have anything going for us in the MU. Well, I guess we can edge guard decently, but you're just going to have to outplay her.

ZSS is tough too. Better mobility and range in general. I'd also say better KO power. I've had difficulty edgegaurding her because of the intangibility on her down B and the kicking option she has out of it, which is very difficult to attack around.

Diddy...same deal as the above really.

It's as if Mario's bad MUs are characters that execute his gameplan better than he does, minus DHD who can camp us all day and exploit our attempts to get in.

I do not think Marth/Lucina are going to be that bad. Their favor, but unlike Brawl, they can't just swing wildly and ruin our day. Most of their moves involve a lot more commitment now, and we can use FLUDD to mess up aerial and FH approaches. I want to see this one played out.

 

[XxBHunterxX]

Little mac gives him a lot of trouble on FD, he's faster, stronger, his moves have higher priority and his smashes have super armor. He also can control the stage well if he knocks you off and since Mario has a little bit of landing lag little mac is able to dash attack you back the way you came before you can even react. That's just FD though so take him to any other stage with platforms and he's ruined

 

[Running Low]

Well if we are able to get him of stage our FLUDD and cape eat his recovery really hard.

 

[mars16]

little mac

if mario can get him off stage one good time, he is dead, this matchup, is in mario's favor, I like to stay in the air against little mack,

would go heads up with him on ground so often, his ftilts an a hole

 

[XxBHunterxX]

little mac

if mario can get him off stage one good time, he is dead, this matchup, is in mario's favor, I like to stay in the air against little mack,

would go heads up with him on ground so often, his ftilts an a hole

Trust me I know, but the problem isn't in fighting a crappy Mac player its with the ones who are aware of how to deal with being thrown off stage. Little mac has a dash attack that's really fast and even if you're on the edge he still manages to get behind you if you choose to block it making it very hard to grab, his smash attacks apply way too much pressure to the shield even going so far as to push you off of the stage yet again giving him the upper hand, even if he whiffs smash attacks you need AI type reflexes to grab him or else he almost instantly starts throwing out jab combos which do 18-20% of damage.

Again I think this only applys to FD given the fact that its a flat stage with no real vertical maneuverability forcing him to jump,

 

[BSP]

Played Brawlman1000 for a good 3 hours yesterday. Sonic beats us for sure. I'm leaning for 60/40, but it could be 55:45.

He is too fast for Mario to keep up with everything he can do. I couldn't really shoot fireballs much because Sonic could be in my face in a few milliseconds. He can juggle Mario, and it's hard to avoid his grabs consistently. Also, compared to brawl, it's much harder to grab/pivot grab him out of his spins and dash attack. We just can't keep up as well IMO.

His spins go right through FLUDD btw. However, if we cape him off the stage without a jump, mid spin, he's dead.

I saved some replays. I'll get them up later.

 

[Locuan]

Hey guys! The RNG calculator that I'm using chose Mario as the next match-up analysis up on the Lucina boards and your input would be greatly appreciated. I would like to note that the meta-game is incredibly young due to the game having only been released a few weeks ago, so things can change dramatically. However, we decided to go ahead with match-up discussion to start organizing things and getting a general idea of how the game is evolving.

On another note, I would love to give input regarding Mario vs. Lucina for you guys. Yet, I have little to no experience on the match-up. So I would like to avoid any inconsistencies or assumptions. Anyways, thanks to you all if you decide to give some input on our thread.

 

[Commander Charles]

About Sonic, I can tell that it's a pretty tuff match.

The Best option on this match up os to stay calm and try to play more defensively; dairs on his shield followed up by grabs are the key to get some percentage here.

FLUUD is almost useless on this fight, since he can use his spins to cut through the water moat of the time.

 

[mars16]

I agree, A good one will make use of there fast roll and dash attack, (and gay a** ftilt)).yea just gotta read the dash attack..

 

[JNewton]

Well, I had some trouble with ZSS, Rosalina and Sonic on For Glory. I also had some trouble with Palutena and Little Mac, but I won a few matches. I want to play on other stages though, Mario might end up having better matchups. I personally think that Mario plays better on BF against some chars (especially Greninja). Pure conjecture however.

 

[PadWarrior]

Rosalina gives me difficulty. Robin to some extent as well as Zelda.

 

[MrFrigid]

Ness. He's fast, has better grab game, and inescapable grab to fair to fair combo. Also his priority is OD. It's really hard to gimp him with the new uB too. How do we make him respect U-smash when it's just those 90 degree pk fires everywhere?

 

[Turokman5896]

I think more variety in stages will help Mario. All of my match up experience is from FD, but additional verticality may prove somewhat beneficial.

 

[InfamousLuffy]

Little Mac and Peach MU i can't beat.Those are really complicated.

 

[A2ZOMG]

Vs Little Mac, have FLUDD charged, B-throw him offstage, and gimp him with whatever move you want. Very one dimensional matchup honestly. He will destroy you mostly while he's grounded, but he'll die very easily the instant you can put him offstage.

Vs Peach, I dunno. I feel like you're forced to play really ballsy to win, because you won't win a regular spacing war against her due to floating + F-air being BS. Sometimes you just have to know when to run in with a U-air to break her rhythm. F-smash is also your friend for outspacing her ground moves.

Peach I believe is probably easier to fight with Fast Fireballs and Scalding FLUDD.

 

[Zatman]

Some personal impressions on hard matchups:

Greninja: I have hard time beating his speed and range. Shuriken spams too fast for cape.
Need more experience with this matchup.

Rosalina: I have had a pleasure to play several great Rosalina players, with quite even win/lose ration.
But even so I think that this matchup is Rosalinas advantage. Luma block our fireballs and Rosalina has better range in every recpect. However, in my experience Rosalina is much slower that Mario in air combat. Attacking airborne Rosalina from bellow seems very effective. She is very comboable as long as Luma doesn't get in the way. Getting KOs is the hard part. Her recovery is capeable, but timing is really hard. Caping usually works better when you cape her before she uses her up-b.

 

[InfamousLuffy]

Actually, @ Z Zatman , i don't think the matchup. Is in Rosalina's favor because it's true Luma, may block our fireballs and stuff but once you deal with Luma the MU is easy for Mario, i'd say her aerials are slower then ours keep that in mind that FLUUD and the cap are useful in this matchup. Have a nice day!~

 

[Sleek Media]

From the strong opponents I've played online, I would say that Mario's matchups go...

Wario Disadvantage
Wario (Mario can do absolutely nothing to him without an error to punish, and even then there is no edge guarding him at all)

Huge Disadvantage
Shiek (lolattackspam)
Bowser (saw an amazing Bowser who knew the spacing, and could close out stocks reliably with sideB)
Sonic (we can't catch him, no edge guard)
Diddy (lol sideB)
Duck Hunt (probably evenly matched once platforms come into play, but a nightmare on FD)
Lucario (good luck KOing below 120)
Peach (it's not fun to run and fireball camp)

Disadvantage
Zelda
Bowser Jr.
Rosalina
G&W

Even
Doc
Luigi
Mega Man
Pac-Man
ROB
DDD
Greninja
Falcon
ZSS

Advantage
Gannondorf
Link
Toon Link
Fox
Falco
Little Mac
Charizard
Ness

Huge Advantage
???

Pardon the incompleteness, but I don't want to speculate too much. These all assume omega stages, BTW.

 

[A2ZOMG]

Wario...isn't that hard for Mario. The only mildly annoying thing is he outtrades Mario and juggles him better than the other way around. His momentum glitch is going to be patched at any rate, and without it he's actually not too difficult to edgeguard. More important is he can't usually outprioritize your aerials directly, which allows you to space fairly aggressively against him.

Also, I don't believe we beat Falco. Falco kinda craps on Mario noticeably on the ground for better reward, and he got harder to edgeguard in this game when his SideB no longer puts him into freefall, while he can still do pretty mean things to Mario's recovery with B-air and D-air.

 

[Sleek Media]

I must be misremembering Wario beating all my aerials with bites or simply swerving around them.

 

[A2ZOMG]

I must be misremembering Wario beating all my aerials with bites or simply swerving around them.

Bite is way nerfed in this game. Don't be afraid to attack him when he does it because there's no grab armor. He can only punish you with it for shielding or whiffing.

 

[Sleek Media]

Have you actually fought a very good Wario in Smash 4 yet, or are you going off of Brawl experience and some theorycrafting with the new changes? If you have any replays of you handling a strong Wario, it would be great if you could post it.

 

[A2ZOMG]

Just watch Fire! play the matchup. He posted videos not long ago, and the matchup basically didn't change much from Brawl, minus Mario is hurt more by damage nerfs and is easier to juggle in this game but in exchange Bite is easier to beat directly and Wario also lost gimmicks like airdodge -> F-smash that Mario needed to respect in spacing wars.

Mario has matchups that are considerably more difficult than Wario, and this isn't factoring that Wario's momentum glitch will be patched out later, which actually allows Mario to edgeguard in this matchup. Wario has to fight in close range to be effective, which happens to simultaneously be where Mario is stronger due to his fast aerials.

It is worth noting, this matchup is also a lot more likely to be easier with a GCN controller when things like U-air out of shield are easier to do.

 

[Sleek Media]

Thanks for the video. Both the Mario and Wario play different than the matches I've played (I use less dAir and more fireball mixups and the Wario stayed in the air more and spaced much better with dAir and bite). I didn't know you could bair through the wheelie, but it doesn't change my opinion on the matchup. If the Wario uses bite smart, you can forget about dair crossovers two or three times in a row like Fire did. Perhaps controllers will help like you suggested.

 

[A2ZOMG]

Thanks for the video. Both the Mario and Wario play different than the matches I've played (I use less dAir and more fireball mixups and the Wario stayed in the air more and spaced much better with dAir and bite). I didn't know you could bair through the wheelie, but it doesn't change my opinion on the matchup. If the Wario uses bite smart, you can forget about dair crossovers two or three times in a row like Fire did. Perhaps controllers will help like you suggested.

Aside from well-spaced B-air, U-smash or U-air oos are the ideal response to Bike.

Another thing I like doing as Mario in Brawl is buffered fullhop U-air -> autocanceled D-air, which covers a lot of options, but I would realize that this kind of thing would be hard to do on a circle pad. This can also be countered by Wario running under you with U-smash/U-air, but this is also hard for him to beat horizontally. But I don't know if this works in Smash 4.

 

[Mandrake1]

Obviously it's pretty hard to tell from just playing totally random people of different skill levels on For Glory, but the times I've had my ass handed to me the most was vs good Lucarios. Maybe I'm just doing something totally wrong but I can just never seem to get a killing blow in time before they just sneeze on me and blow me off the stage.

For easiest and most fun match up, it would have to be vs Little Mac. Probably not because of the character itself but more likely the kind of person who plays mac on For Glory. So many ways to just toy with them if they let you get them off stage.

 

[Sleek Media]

Aside from well-spaced B-air, U-smash or U-air oos are the ideal response to Bike.

Another thing I like doing as Mario in Brawl is buffered fullhop U-air -> autocanceled D-air, which covers a lot of options, but I would realize that this kind of thing would be hard to do on a circle pad. This can also be countered by Wario running under you with U-smash/U-air, but this is also hard for him to beat horizontally. But I don't know if this works in Smash 4.

It's interesting that you bring that up because I seem to have a totally different perspective on Mario and it's worth discussing. I don't think of him as a character you cover options with (like Shiek now or Fox traditionally) because in previous games Mario simply got outspaced too easily, and even though that's no longer an issue in Smash4, he still lacks the speed you need to really apply that kind of pressure. With the increased landing lag and improved combos of 4, I've found a mixup/punish style to be most effective. You can go in for little bits of rushdown, fireball camp a little, space a little, but none of those are really good enoughon their own to win most matchups. They are, however, great for training your opponent and baiting out big punishes with mind games. A lot of characters and players rely heavily on a defined strategy (one of the problems with having an Internet community). Mario can play around most of these and force the other player into unfamiliar territory.

I think this is also why Bowser is so strong. I've only played one that is really great, but man he was GREAT. He used everything in the kit effectively, even the fire breath on stage, and could consistently do big damage because it was so hard to read and punish him. Think of it as the opposite of Little Mac and why 99% of his players basically amount to cannon fodder.

 

[A2ZOMG]

Honestly, this is where I get depressed about Mario, because Smash 4 honestly doesn't favor him at all. Mario in this game doesn't do a lot of damage nor can he kill easily, still has bad range, and his survivability was hurt due to Cape stalling nerfs.

I am almost certain Mario's worst matchup right now is Marth, who capitalizes on Mario's glaring weakness in midrange harder than anyone else. Marth outranges Mario while doing more damage, and once he gets Mario offstage, it just takes one tipper aerial to seal Mario's stock usually. This is approximately a 7/3 matchup in Marth's favor, mostly because Marth's reward is plain better than Mario's. Even if Marth's zoning is easier to break in this game than previously, the nerfs to Mario's reward make this matchup noticeably unfavorable. At least in Brawl, Mario's combos on Marth were actually highly rewarding, so you at least didn't usually feel terrible for getting in.

Brawl Mario to me was a reasonably workable character who had clear weaknesses, but in addition to decent Fireballs, he was good in close range with Jab cancels and aerial combos that actually did good damage. He also had Cape Stalling to outplay edgeguard and juggle attempts. Brawl Mario ported to this game would probably be high tier.

Right now, the only hope for Mario to be competitive hinges on custom moves, especially Gust Cape and Fast Fireballs to compensate for Mario's poor midrange and recovery, and Explosive Jump Punch to compensate for Mario's very bad damage per hit.

Also, Mario's matchup against Rosalina is decent (not favorable though), simply because Mario does have good tools for separating Luma in D-air and B-throw. Assuming Rosalina remains top tier, we have that matchup to feel good about.

 

[Sleek Media]

I disagree about Brawl Mario. Nobody ever wanted to admit it, but his matchups against Marth, MK, and such were basically unwinnable. Sure, a great Mario could beat a decent competitive higher tier character, but Mario won zero big tournaments, and he never even got far in any. Even the best Mario players like Boss wouldn't even try to use him against a serious opponent.

I'll also use Marth, as an example. What are Mario's options at the ledge with Brawl Marth? Nothing. He can just crouch near the edge, and instantly every option Mario has can be covered without even requiring a read (plus the danger of an edgehog if you try to plank). Challenging Marth onstage was a total nightmare...sit through 20 fAirs until the Marth hopefully makes a spacing error, at which point you can hopefully rush in if you're still alive.

My opinion is that Mario benefits from Smash4, not the other way around. Yes you are right that his cape stall is much less useful (and the cape itself is less useful since the reflecting property requires much stricter timing), but the changes to general mechanics is highly favorable to Mario. SJP is one of the shorter recoveries, but it has precious invincibility frames that let it eat through almost anything, and now that opponents can no longer give us the "loledgehogdenied" treatment, recovery is much more consistent. The new trajectory of fireballs better covers his high recovery as well, which is the main reason fast fireballs aren't actually better (just different). Another VERY HUGE factor that nobody is talking about is powershielding, and how much easier it is to do in this game. It helps Mario immensely. Suddenly so many attacks that were spot dodge frame traps are easily punishable.

In Smash4 Marth is no pushover, but I don't think he's a special threat. He can't wall you anymore. At all. He even has trouble zoning you in general. What's his approach? Single Fair? Shield Breaker? Dancing Blade? He can't use them interchangably, so his positioning gives him away. It is possible for him to gimp us, but it has to be a situation where we have no option to swerve or airdodge if we want to make it back, which is also hopeless for him if the situation is reversed. He is pretty fast and can punish hard if we get careless, but I don't factor carelessness into matchups. At the very least, Lucina is the more dangerous of the two, since she can better handle us at close range, and benefits from attacks like grounded uSmash in our matchup.

I do agree about our Rosalina matchup. It's close, but slightly in her favor. We lack a "Falcon Kick" kind of attack which instantly KO's the Luma, and she can resist our combos. She's nowhere near top tier though...much less with incoming nerfs. Unless 1.04 brings us changes to the characters, I think you'll see Shiek, Diddy, and Sonic make their way to the top. Unfortunately, we don't handle any of them particularly well.

 

[InfamousLuffy]

These bad Matchup's are a nightmare but we. Mario Bros can practice and beat the Matchup but not easily of course and btw. Mario's cape stall got nerferd but. Hes fun still so cheer up.

 

[BSP]

From the strong opponents I've played online, I would say that Mario's matchups go...

Wario Disadvantage
Wario (Mario can do absolutely nothing to him without an error to punish, and even then there is no edge guarding him at all)

Huge Disadvantage
Shiek (lolattackspam)
Bowser (saw an amazing Bowser who knew the spacing, and could close out stocks reliably with sideB)
Sonic (we can't catch him, no edge guard)
Diddy (lol sideB)
Duck Hunt (probably evenly matched once platforms come into play, but a nightmare on FD)
Lucario (good luck KOing below 120)
Peach (it's not fun to run and fireball camp)

Haven't fought any great Wario players, but I foresee it being difficult too.

IDK about no edge guard on Sonic. See my matches vs. Brawlman. However, he is really fast and we will struggle to keep up. Even though, I think Sonic is only a clear disadvantage, not huge.

Diddy is a pain

Customs should help Mario a lot in general, but especially against Peach since scalding FLUDD should break most of her float game.

Sheik is a terrible MU. You are not exaggerating when you say she can just spam attacks and we can't do anything about it. Even her jab competes with our up B since it s not invincible on startup >_>. I'm goin Pac Man against her from now on.