So
someone on Reddit took a spreadsheet someone else posted that compiled the 30 "most leaked" characters for Smash Ultimate on 4chan, and then made a graph out of it:
Personally I don't think any of these leaks are totally credible. Someone in a reply in that Reddit thread posted a quote he heard from someone else allegedly on the development team:
"I'll let you in on a secret "leakers". Even people working here don't know the entire list. We find out characters on a need to know basis because of how anal they are with leaks. Most of the time legit leaks happen because of everything wrapping up, aka when everyone gets to see the full game before finalizing with last rounds of QA/ratings/manufacturing/selling, or extremely early if someone knows someone who saw Sakurai's full design plan instead of an abridged one. Like ****, I didn't even know Snake was in the game until the direct."
Which to me makes a lot more sense. Nintendo has been on point with not having huge leaks for the past few years, and compartmentalization would help prevent these kinds of leaks from happening. The only leak that was totally accurate was the one where it was evident the leaker had just seen the Direct early, so it wasn't someone with master knowledge of everything. So the huge overlap in this chart is less likely to be because over a dozen people on the development team know the whole roster and leaked it, and more that a lot of "leakers" are copying each other to seem more credible.
All that said, I would be shocked if K. Rool and a lot of these other characters aren't in the game. Because this game is clearly going for the most popular and requested characters (evidenced by Daisy and Ridley), with assistance from the ballot, this graph is a decent poll of who's actually popular. My predictions were K. Rool, Simon Belmont, Geno, Banjo and Kazooie, Skull Kid, and Sora, so it looks like I might be more than half right.
Surprised that Dark Samus is #3, though. That gives me a lot of hope, as Dark Samus and Chibi-Robo are my two top wishes. And there's a lot of circumstantial evidence pointing towards Dark Samus being playable one way or another, and I voted for Dark Samus in the ballot, so I'm slowly going crazy as I await confirmation that it's true. Hopefully I get her and you guys get K. Rool!