Well guys, we're only about 5 days away from finding out who the last fighter is, and I've decided to make my final predictions on who I think it might be, as well as share my thoughts on my most-wanted characters who I DON'T think it'll be.
First things first! I don't believe it'll be Sora like everyone seems to be setting up for. I watched the leak discussion video that Papagenos recently uploaded, and it sounded just like every other "leak" that people have made for the past year that either they guessed lucky on or got traction due to massive coincidences just happening to line up with them before eventually getting canned. If Fighter Pass 2 was finalized way back in November 2019, then why would Nintendo wait until July 2021 to request music for Kingdom Hearts for a potential Kingdom Hearts character? Why would that deal not have already been finalized with the characters 2 years ago? This "leak" just sounds bogus and it likely got insanely lucky with the October 5th direct date reveal, just like a bunch of "leaks" got lucky in guessing the date for the Sept. 23rd, 2021 Nintendo Direct, while what they predicted in them wound up not happening. This just sucks, because I would LOVE for Sora to be the last character, but I've come to terms on the high chances of that not happening years ago...
Obviously, I'm not counting characters I like that have received Mii Costumes or Spirit Events, so Shantae is out of the question
I'm convinced that it will not be a Gen 8 Pokemon character since Pokemon Sword/Shield already had a spirit event a couple years ago. In fact the ONLY Pokemon I can see the final character being is Decidueye, because he was considered by Sakurai for base game alongside Incineroar before he settled on the latter. Side note, he's also the only Pokemon I'd be 100% fine with since he'd probably have a cool moveset. That said, I don't think it'll be another Nintendo character either way. Granted, I've got no proof of that and it is just a hunch that I'm feeling since the Nintendo side of Smash Ultimate feels pretty much complete up till now.
Considering the pattern for western characters being mostly relegated to Mii costumes, and the fact that very few of them are fighters (Banjo and Steve) or have even been considered for Ultimate, then I think it's safe to rule out the final character being from a western developer besides Microsoft. Which stings to admit as a Crash Bandicoot fan, but it's not like Nintendo and Activision have that strong of a relationship. They only really work together for Crash and Spyro, and very little else besides them, and that's it. Ubisoft works well with Nintendo, but I doubt Rayman is going to get the last spot due to the poor sales of that series in Japan, and while Microsoft could get a 3rd character, I doubt it. Mainly because we only got Banjo because Phil Spencer was willing to let him join Smash, and Steve came after 5 years of negotiations.
Which finally brings me to the most likely candidates for the final character spot: Third-Party Japanese characters. Sakurai has said that it's easier to work with the Japanese companies since there's not language barrier there, so odds are better that the final character is gonna be from a Japanese studio. I'll be honest, Sega, Square Enix, Capcom and Konami all have 3 characters, while Microsoft and Bandai Namco each has 2 characters, currently in Ultimate. SNK is likely not getting anything else, considering Terry came with content representing that whole company. And while I could see us getting a 3rd Namco character, or even a 2nd Atlus character (even if that'll technically be 4 Sega characters total in Ultimate), there's two 3rd Party Japanese gaming companies that I think have a better chance at getting a character amongst the ones that haven't gotten one yet: Koei Tecmo and Arc System Works. The former is an established company with a strong relationship and history with Nintendo, and the other spent years being relatively small and niche before establishing themselves more recently as a respected studio here in the current day, and both already have minor content in Smash in the form of spirits and one Assist Trophy. I also feel like each company only has one character that are recognized/respected enough to become a fighter too: Ryu Hayabusa and Sol Badguy!
These 2 characters are my final picks for the last character. Obviously I can't have both, but I can't decide who I want more between Hayabusa and Sol now. Ninja Gaiden has the history with Nintendo, and Guilty Gear has a fighting game connection that could fit well alongside Street Fighter, Tekken and King of Fighters in Smash, and both Koei Tecmo and Arc System Works I think have earned fighters. It doesn't look like Marvelous is going to get anything after Travis Touchdown got a spirit and Mii costume. So hopefully, Koei Tecmo and Arc Sys have a potential shot now.
So with all that said, characters I like that I DON'T think are happening include: Sora, Crash Bandicoot, Shantae, Yuri Lowell, Breath of the Wild Zelda, Decidueye, Spyro the Dragon, Master Chief and Amaterasu.
And my final predictions for the final character: Ryu Hayabusa or Sol Badguy.
Pretty sure I'll be wrong in the end, but this was still fun to make
Here's hoping!