TvT according to your numbers is 30%. TvS + SvS is 70%. That's 40% more. Where on earth are you getting 66%?
I also have no idea how you got 50% for TvS.
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Jungle Republic Mafia: To Clarify, the Werewolves Won The Game. Here Marks a New Age in Activity Reform.
- Thread starter UtopianPoyzin
- Start date
I also have no idea how you got 50% for TvS.
You also have to take out a person in the second number, along with lowering 11 to 10. The following numbers are all assuming that the player is town. If you are scum, obv the numbers change.
Why did you multiply in TvS by 2?
TvT is (6/11 * 5/10) for 25%.
TvS is (6/11 * 5/10) for 25%
SvS is (5/11 * 4/10) for 18%.
We're also oversimplifying this due to trying to get the probability of slot 1 being T first when it's possible that slot 1 could be S. These numbers are wrong on both our ends for actual probability.
Also if you're turning to statistics when we have reads and evidence, come on. This isn't just a game of probability; the goal is to read people and make judgements. These numbers would only truly apply if people were randomly selecting.
Why did you multiply in TvS by 2?
TvT is (6/11 * 5/10) for 25%.
TvS is (6/11 * 5/10) for 25%
SvS is (5/11 * 4/10) for 18%.
We're also oversimplifying this due to trying to get the probability of slot 1 being T first when it's possible that slot 1 could be S. These numbers are wrong on both our ends for actual probability.
Also if you're turning to statistics when we have reads and evidence, come on. This isn't just a game of probability; the goal is to read people and make judgements. These numbers would only truly apply if people were randomly selecting.
Lynches we should make today on possibility of town actually doing ****.
Lore
Brindoor
Lynches I think need to be made
Pythag
Ruy
Inactive Slots That Aren’t Helping ( should go but i don’t think we get a lynch trying to push it today)
Tom
Z25
There’s probably more but those are the most pressing.
I’d want to add Rajam for how far behind he is but at least he’s actively leaving a trail of where he is page by page, willing to leave that slot until D2 and just hope they start that day caught up.
If people are not willing to go Lore (dumb) at this point I’m down to lynch Brindoor, I know I said I would hate new player policy lynches with a ~40 percent scum - town ratio but there’s not a chance wolves kill them overnight because he is showing that for 96 hours he is literally unwilling to play the game. It’s so ****ing unbelievably frustrating this whole D1 is ****in stupid.
Lore vs Mac dominates the entire day even though 3 active players have Mac as obv town and we’ve got 2-3 useless slots that are freely coasting under that ****.
Lore
Brindoor
Lynches I think need to be made
Pythag
Ruy
Inactive Slots That Aren’t Helping ( should go but i don’t think we get a lynch trying to push it today)
Tom
Z25
There’s probably more but those are the most pressing.
I’d want to add Rajam for how far behind he is but at least he’s actively leaving a trail of where he is page by page, willing to leave that slot until D2 and just hope they start that day caught up.
If people are not willing to go Lore (dumb) at this point I’m down to lynch Brindoor, I know I said I would hate new player policy lynches with a ~40 percent scum - town ratio but there’s not a chance wolves kill them overnight because he is showing that for 96 hours he is literally unwilling to play the game. It’s so ****ing unbelievably frustrating this whole D1 is ****in stupid.
Lore vs Mac dominates the entire day even though 3 active players have Mac as obv town and we’ve got 2-3 useless slots that are freely coasting under that ****.
Ah, I see why you multiplied by 2. It was a misguided attempt to add the probability of Scum First then Town to TvS, so fix the "oversimplified" presentation. But Scum then Town is 5/11 * 6/10 for 27%, which added with my TvS is 52%.
So for the sake of ending this bad exercise (with my earlier point of probability mattering less in mafia) we can use my numbers despite them not being completely accurate. TvT is 25% vs the 52% of TvS. The TvS possibility is only an increase of 25%. Large but not a ridiculous increase.
If you try to be misleading and argue that the 52% is "um ackshually" 100% more than 25%, I will slap you in the teeth. Misleading stats like that are my biggest pet peeve.
Either way, this is a fruitless exercise. Not to mention how you're implying "TvS" as "chances Lore is scum" rather than "chances Lore or Mac are scum." Your argument is slanted, misleading, and overall not applicable to this game. I'm fine with leaving my vote on you for you attempting it.
So for the sake of ending this bad exercise (with my earlier point of probability mattering less in mafia) we can use my numbers despite them not being completely accurate. TvT is 25% vs the 52% of TvS. The TvS possibility is only an increase of 25%. Large but not a ridiculous increase.
If you try to be misleading and argue that the 52% is "um ackshually" 100% more than 25%, I will slap you in the teeth. Misleading stats like that are my biggest pet peeve.
Either way, this is a fruitless exercise. Not to mention how you're implying "TvS" as "chances Lore is scum" rather than "chances Lore or Mac are scum." Your argument is slanted, misleading, and overall not applicable to this game. I'm fine with leaving my vote on you for you attempting it.
Going Brindoor just feels like Lore vs Soup D1 all over again though. Scum doesn’t kill Mac or Lore and then where does that leave us tomorrow?
I’m slightly more ok with it because I’m firmly in the lynch lore slot where as last time a D1 was dominated by two players I was a full null read on.
I’m slightly more ok with it because I’m firmly in the lynch lore slot where as last time a D1 was dominated by two players I was a full null read on.
I've argued to death why my slot is fine, so I'm not doing that again here.
The lynches we agree on are Brindoor and Ruy. I would move to one of those if necessary to actually do something, preferably Brindoor for the reasons you gave.
I also disagree with both Tom and Z25 as lynchable. Both have pretty valid johns.
ill support lynching Brindor on policy but it feels like a cop-out to make everyone happy. which probably isn't the best way to approach d1 lynches
I think Lore/Tom/Brindor is a strong D1 lynchpool and if we have the numbers Im game for a push on any of these slots. But year our time is running super thin and its looking like Ill be stuck mobile posting until deadline because I wont be home by then
Ill be checking in as best I can periodically so that I can move off lore if need be
I’m not confident we even get that to happen in 5 hours. I’m barely confident in us getting a lynch today. We need player input and fast on the direction we are taking and we act on it immediately.
Mobile posting gang Frozen I feel you.
It has been over an hour since this post with no response from Mac, with multiple posts from him since. I am going to assume from this point forward that Mac is arguing from a position of bad faith, despite attempts to talk to him about this and my frustrations.
I'll be voting Brindor if necessary, and I assume that Mac won't be the play since the only other active players are opposed to it.
dude Lore i'm just so tired of engaging with you. whats the point of continuing
that post is a misrepresentation of the situation
we both already know where we stand. everyone else in the thread already knows where we stand.
and your math is so garbage *adjust anime glasses* your percentages don't even add up to 1!
so stop engaging with me and vote yourself so a lynch actually goes through toDay
that post is a misrepresentation of the situation
we both already know where we stand. everyone else in the thread already knows where we stand.
and your math is so garbage *adjust anime glasses* your percentages don't even add up to 1!
so stop engaging with me and vote yourself so a lynch actually goes through toDay
Maven89
Smash Master
Here’s my take on Brindor from experience with these slots. There are 3 options, we Lynch him now, we lynch him in lylo, or we don’t lynch him at all. After day 1 there’s almost always too much information on slots for people to buckle up and avoid their scum reads to deal with a problem slot, meaning he will be ignored until he can’t be anymore. Or, he will just be ignored in general. I’d rather take him out now then wait until we’re in a win or lose situation before we have to deal with him.
Unvote: Tom
Vote: Brindor
Unvote: Tom
Vote: Brindor
... That post is me presenting my perspective so that you can understand why I'm so frustrated. The entire point of it is to be my viewpoint, with my bias included. I'm trying to work this out with you, player to player.
On the statistics: I literally said that it's an oversimplification and mostly incorrect. Also good job addressing how you're presenting your numbers misleadingly too, along with flat out ignoring my questions on your stats. I asked you multiple legitimate questions about those numbers, and you are choosing to ignore them. Cool.
Again, I am going to have a very candid talk with you about all this post-game; this really has been miserable on my end.
sigh
vote: Brindor... it's better than no lynching
Raxxel
#HBC | Red Ryu
Pythag
Rajam
where yall at, what's your lynch pools? pls let us know if you're willing to vote Lore toDay so we can make that lynch happen. Our deadline is in a little over 3 hours at this point
I’m keeping my vote on Lore, i will be in the thread if I need to switch though. I don’t have too much more to say that isn’t just me airing frustration again.
aiight cool i will too, but im also down to switch
vote: Lore
vote: Lore
The people that Mac just pinged if you’re not voting Lore put your vote on SOMEONE we can actually lynch today. Most likely Brindoor, but please don’t come in say you’ve got Lore as town somehow and then not vote. We can’t afford a no lynch with this set up
Maven89
Smash Master
Lore, you clearly have baited Mac into a constant back and forth over what was an incredibly minor point, then complained that Mac is tunneling after he engaged you. This is what I’m talking about when I said you’re acting exactly like J was he’s scum. Your defense was not in good faith at all
Maven89
Smash Master
KevinM, where are you at with dealing with Brindor?
It’s like 10 posts up
my dude literally goes from "Mac explain your reasoning, your vote is low-effort" to "Mac stop talking to me, it's dominating town discussion and is scummy and anti-town" to "Mac is scummy for refusing to keep engaging with me"
Maven89
Smash Master
I meant if we don’t lynch him day 1
We go back and forth on him every day unless he plays ball which I’m not seeing happening. Lynch him today if we can’t get the Lore wagon happening. Lore scum flip means it’s more likely we can afford a lynch on his slot tomorrow because we’ve taken pressure off of us slightly. Lore town flip means that slot becomes the worst because we are now further back against the wall with a completely dead slot going into D2 and our odds greatly decrease.
Unvote
Vote: brindor
I am down for that, my first pick is still Ryu, though I would LOVE to hear what kev thinks about Red and I being against one another. Do you think we are werewolf v mafia? No town between the two of us?
I really really don’t wanna vote lore. His responses and such really kinda look like peak lore. I don’t buy the AtE argument, with how upset he and everyone got at Soup, I think he believes faking AtE to be incredibly bad gameplay. I have a hard time pulling the trigger on him at this point.
Right now I’m reading Mac and lore as TvT.
Still phone posting
Vote: brindor
I am down for that, my first pick is still Ryu, though I would LOVE to hear what kev thinks about Red and I being against one another. Do you think we are werewolf v mafia? No town between the two of us?
I really really don’t wanna vote lore. His responses and such really kinda look like peak lore. I don’t buy the AtE argument, with how upset he and everyone got at Soup, I think he believes faking AtE to be incredibly bad gameplay. I have a hard time pulling the trigger on him at this point.
Right now I’m reading Mac and lore as TvT.
Still phone posting
Brindor
Smash Journeyman
PLS DON'T LYNCH ME PLS 
All ears man. Why not lynch you?PLS DON'T LYNCH ME PLS
You guys are leaving out so many steps and details that it's actually insulting. Below is a timeline, with the parts you left out bolded.
1. "Mac explain your reasoning.
2. Mac explains and asks questions, but after I respond and give an explanation, Mac repeats his questions. I repeat my answer. This happens a couple times.
3. "Mac stop talking to me, it's dominating town discussion thanks to you tunneling on a single post and repeating yourself, wasting time and being anti-town for doing so. Please just step back from the game for a bit and come back."
4. Mac continues to repeat himself and get extremely salty over me saying that he's tunneling, before suddenly dropping from the convo without warning before complaining that I'm trying to get him to respond more despite him leaving.
5. This continues and Mac continues to tunnel and hyper-focus on my single post, with his ISO being less of an ISO and more tunneling on that one post and the other interactions. It's generally stuff I disagree with but arguing would lead to more of the above crap. He does the AtE accusation that sets me off then acts like he totally was talking about something else all along, despite the wording being very unclear.
6. I continue complaining about his playstyle making this game actually miserable for me, and I eventually pose a hypothetical situation, so that he can understand my viewpoint and why I am frustrated with him as a player, not as a town/scum person. As a player.
7. Mac ignores this, instead posting misleading statistics and other things.
8. "Mac is scummy for refusing to keep engaging with me because I'm trying to settle this player to player due to actual frustrations with his playstyle, leading me to believe that he's engaging in a case founded on bad faith argumentation.
Brindor
Smash Journeyman
I-I-I'm a Good Guy
lol this guy
Why Mac is scum, a concise case:
1. Tunnels in on a single post, repeating questions and completely disregarding any explanations in responses. When it's said by other players that it's irrelevant, he doubles down and even calls someone scummy when they disagree.
2. Instead of arguing that he isn't tunneling, he instead gets angry and says that he's "playing mafia as it's supposed to be played." He doesn't actually respond, instead he acts insulted that anyone questions his actions at all.
3. When an attempt is made to clear the air and explain why I'm frustrated on a personal level, he disregards it completely. This shows to me that he is arguing from a position of bad faith and legitimately doesn't care about my personal concerns.
4. He brings up statistics and tries to use them to disregard reads from people. When asked about actual mathematic concerns over his numbers, he ignores the questions completely. This shows that he doesn't care if the numbers are misleading or not.
5. With the statistics, he tries to paint the TvS chances (roughly 50% with very rough estimates with proper figures) as being 50% chance that I'm scum, not that either of us could be scum. It goes from being "TvT is less possible and here's why" to "TvT is less possible and here's why Lore is scum."
6. He consistently leaves out details and downplays my personal concerns with his playstyle instead of actually engaging in a conversation about it.
7. His "ISO" of me was based entirely around my interactions with him, showing his intent to continue Tunneling. He also tries to argue that his ISO shows that I'm "faking contribution" despite my posts and content outside of my interactions with him.
8. His ISO also tries to present him as someone who hasn't been hyper focusing me, instead pointing to his scattered posts that throw random questions at people. He also ignores how half of those posts involve him asking people about me. His ISO is meant to give a false impression of his own play so far.
Dude is Scum, imo. Scum players tend to shrug off personal concerns about their playstyle, instead using those concerns as more ammo. Soup did this, as have many others. They tend to see sportsmanship as an idea to be ignored, in the name of winning.
The sportsmanship bit isn't the only reason I find him to be Scum, though. It's all the stuff above as well.
1. Tunnels in on a single post, repeating questions and completely disregarding any explanations in responses. When it's said by other players that it's irrelevant, he doubles down and even calls someone scummy when they disagree.
2. Instead of arguing that he isn't tunneling, he instead gets angry and says that he's "playing mafia as it's supposed to be played." He doesn't actually respond, instead he acts insulted that anyone questions his actions at all.
3. When an attempt is made to clear the air and explain why I'm frustrated on a personal level, he disregards it completely. This shows to me that he is arguing from a position of bad faith and legitimately doesn't care about my personal concerns.
4. He brings up statistics and tries to use them to disregard reads from people. When asked about actual mathematic concerns over his numbers, he ignores the questions completely. This shows that he doesn't care if the numbers are misleading or not.
5. With the statistics, he tries to paint the TvS chances (roughly 50% with very rough estimates with proper figures) as being 50% chance that I'm scum, not that either of us could be scum. It goes from being "TvT is less possible and here's why" to "TvT is less possible and here's why Lore is scum."
6. He consistently leaves out details and downplays my personal concerns with his playstyle instead of actually engaging in a conversation about it.
7. His "ISO" of me was based entirely around my interactions with him, showing his intent to continue Tunneling. He also tries to argue that his ISO shows that I'm "faking contribution" despite my posts and content outside of my interactions with him.
8. His ISO also tries to present him as someone who hasn't been hyper focusing me, instead pointing to his scattered posts that throw random questions at people. He also ignores how half of those posts involve him asking people about me. His ISO is meant to give a false impression of his own play so far.
Dude is Scum, imo. Scum players tend to shrug off personal concerns about their playstyle, instead using those concerns as more ammo. Soup did this, as have many others. They tend to see sportsmanship as an idea to be ignored, in the name of winning.
The sportsmanship bit isn't the only reason I find him to be Scum, though. It's all the stuff above as well.
Vote: BrindorI-I-I'm a Good Guy
People have asked multiple questions towards you, asking you to explain various things like your vote. Even your "he feels shifty" thing that you did towards KevM would have been fine. Instead, you're ignoring it and just flat out not participating.
Mac is still my top scum pick, but I agree that you need to be voted.
there's just so much off-base about Lore's points. I can (and already have for the most part) refute all of them. I will do so again if literally one person says they're interested in seeing that.
else im not gonna waste my time
else im not gonna waste my time
why are you currently voting me?I-I-I'm a Good Guy
who should we vote instead?
if you can't answer these basic questions then we basically have no choice but to vote you off
1. Because he felt like it
2. Not him, baka
guys im pretty sure we have less than an hour left
if RR and Raxxle don't post before the Day ends, they both jump up immensely in my scum book
if RR and Raxxle don't post before the Day ends, they both jump up immensely in my scum book
also
UtopianPoyzin
can we get a vote count?
UtopianPoyzin
can we get a vote count?
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