Judgement Mechanics Study

[alphameric]

Well I'm not saying the frames are exact, but you get the idea

 

[Needle of Juntah]

OMFG do you people really care that much MY GOD, its one move.
if anyone figures it out il give you a loly pop

 

[Jihnsius]

OMFG do you people really care that much MY GOD, its one move.
if anyone figures it out il give you a loly pop

You find it surprising that more people are interested in one move than yourself, eh? Truthfully, it's not that surprising. Stop flaming and get out.

 

[Desolate_one]

well my friends call me lucky cause I get a whole bunch of nines... Everytime I play a match I end up getting like 20 nines.... the only problem is that I can't hit anyone cause that always think I am going to get one.

 

[alphameric]

It's not like it would be useful.
It'd just be cool to know (imo)

 

[Jihnsius]

I think it's fairly useful in practice what we know so far.

 

[-Wolfy-]

I was jsut thinking... whenever I've had multi-9 matches, they've been close, frantic matches. I'm going to look into the effect on the control stick(like the way you earn coins after matches, like how many times the control stick is slammed) and its effect on the probabiliy of the 9. It may have nothing to do with it, but I don't think it's been looked into.



Edit: If anyone is still checking this now and then, I spent the last two and a half hours testing my theory, I'll repost later with finalized results. And tonight I'm going to sit down and do a sequence check, stationary, out of 1000.so good data is on the way

 

[MastaWeeji]

I'm definitely interested in this here... But one thing though, those rules stated - 1 and 2 can't show first, and X can't be drawn again within the next 2 draws, what version is that for? If people are claiming to get a few nines in a row, then that would obviously be invalid, unless on a different version (u guys said that multi nines were drawn on version 00 right?).

Also I am a G&W player and i have gotten 9's in a row before. But, i use the hammer with lots of time in between each draw. If i haven't used it in a while, i try it, and most of the time it's a 9. If dying resets the drawing queue then that could explain it though.

I'd like to see results from this study, it's pretty cool, and would help alot to increase the chance of a nine. Of course if the rules theorized above were true, you could add your 9 back into the queue by just drawing twice more after punishing someone with it.

 

[HyugaRicdeau]

Dying does reset the queue. And yes, if you get a 9, it's good to do 2 judgments to get it back in.

 

[-Wolfy-]

I've got one more test I'm doing to bundle in with my other three, have to get a thousand with a sequential analysis. And repeats is definitely rare, but it has happened 3 times for me in my tests.I've had consecutive (2) 9's and consecutive 6's. I'll have my stuff all clean and finalized by tomorrow night or you canb all kill me.

 

[Jihnsius]

Also need to know what version you did this on.

 

[-Wolfy-]

Okay so heres my idea. I'm willing to take requests for what the people want to have tested specifically. I did some basic stuff like gathering my own information through trials under controlled situations, but I'm sure the GaW community can come up with some interesting things to test. I've got a lot of free time and I'll add one more of my posts with results each day if I'm able to, and nothings too out there for me regarding studies on the JH. So I'll do my best at playing the mythbuster on whatever you throw my way.
Here's what I observed in the First three I tested of many trials that are still to come.

1.Stationary Judgement Hammer.
Conditions: 1P GaW; 2P C Falcon; Final Destination; No Items; Time Match/No Limit;
In the stationary JH test, as the name implies, I stood in such a manner that if I were to walk, it would push C Falcon, so as clsoe as possible with out walking past them. I then continued to use the Judgement Hammer on C Falcon, you guessed it, 1000 times in a row. My results were as follows; 1.)96 2.)112 3.)136 4.)93 5.)103 6.)115 7.)130 8.)81 9.)134.

I have version 1.2

DISCLAIMER: THESE NUMBERS WERE RECIEVED THROUGH TRIAL, AND ARE THEREFORE NOT ACCEPTED AS GUARANTEED, REPLICATABLE VALUES.

 

[Gea]

And also are pretty even all things considered. So...?

 

[-Wolfy-]

I haven't even gotten to the sequential stuff yet. Not even stuff like testing the common belief that your odds improve of getting a second 9 if you try two more JH's. Thats where things have the potential to get interesting. This test, where GaW essentially doesn't move at all, and just blows of JH after JH acts as a control for future work, and it also verfies that it is essentially a 1/9 chance of any number when there are no other altered conditions. This is of course assuming for the purpose of the study on its own that the match clock is independent of of the JH results. More to come!

 

[CWolf20]

I was jsut thinking... whenever I've had multi-9 matches, they've been close, frantic matches. I'm going to look into the effect on the control stick(like the way you earn coins after matches, like how many times the control stick is slammed) and its effect on the probabiliy of the 9. It may have nothing to do with it, but I don't think it's been looked into.



Edit: If anyone is still checking this now and then, I spent the last two and a half hours testing my theory, I'll repost later with finalized results. And tonight I'm going to sit down and do a sequence check, stationary, out of 1000.so good data is on the way

Your perception of "multiple 9s in a close match" is flawed. People remember crucial "bad luck" and "good luck." The reason you perceived yourself as getting more 9s than usual is because they actually meant something to you at the time. They stick out in your mind more. In the several other matches that you played that were close, you would bust out the hammer, not get a 9, and forget about it. But when you got it, it registers and you remember it. I'm sure you've gotten the same multiple 9s in very lopsided matches as well, but you don't really remember them, because they didn't mean anything.

It's just human psychology.

EDIT: By the way, the analysis being done in this thread is quite interesting to read. I'm still leaning towards the "random" assessment, and that patterns don't exist, except due to the limitations of the gamecubes ability to produce random numbers. Although, you guys seem to have done some research that could possibly point the other way.

A question, though: Just how concrete is this "1 and 2 can't come first" and has anyone checked which one is in the queue first? Are these "rules" actually rules or are they just speculation?

 

[-Wolfy-]

That was jsut something I was throwing into the air as something that can be checked, because close matches usually theres alot of smashing of the control stick, and if that alters the amount of coins you get at the end of a match, whats there to say it doesn't have a tiny bit of pull for the hammer? Will it affect it? Most likely know. Do I care enough about wasting time to not test it? Nope. And the "1 and 2 can't come first" rule is what I am testing today.I'll have results up at around 5 o'clock EST. And for the record, I'm performing my studies as a completely unbiased individual. I'm not altering my results in any way to prove techniques to manipulate the JH exists, or ignore the possibilty that there may be a way. I'll gather data, make my own conclusions, but in for my own protection, I'll leave the majority of the guess work up to everyone else, I'll just give people the means with which to argue.

EDIT: And while you do have a point about remembering multi 9's more than multi 1's, I used to main GaW along with Mario(I'm exploring the rest of the low-middle tiers), and while my Mario was better, when I used GaW, matches were generally closer because even with insane teching and like smash-japanese DI, GaW has to play perfectly to overcome peaches, marths, and falcos, which are all too abundant in my area.

 

[Jihnsius]

Go back a couple of pages and read my posts regarding strings and "positioning."

I haven't had much time to put more research into it, but here's a quick recap:

Positioning: Didn't get too much research, but down-tilt, short-hop, Judgment seemed to change the statistics slightly, but then again that might've just been pure coincidence, since the amount of tests wasn't high enough to round it out.

Strings: I did a string of 10,000 Judgments in a row, and wrote them all down in the order they were done. No number came twice within the next two numbers. No patterns were found in the strings, either, and I doubt there are any, considering the high amount of "decoding" I put into it without finding any single reputable pattern.

Timer: Many theories arose, and the only one I could conclude as somewhat viable was the match timer determining what number is thrown. The match timer would be the one that starts as soon as the announcer says, "Go!" and not the total game timer or system timer. This is debatable, though, but deserves a bit more research, especially from someone that has an Action Replay and can do frame-perfection.

Note, however, that all of this data is done on version .02 (As far as I understand, I have no idea what .01 is, just what I've heard.)

If you're unsure of your version number, here's a couple easy tests:
Choose Bowser, jump, and press B as soon as you hit the ground. If it comes out immediately, you have version 00.
Choose Game & Watch. Press forward+B a bunch of times. If you get any two numbers in a row, you have version 00.
... There's a few more, but I can't recall right now.

 

[Lipucd]

Here's how my friends four nines went the other day

Match begins.. he hasn't used his hammer yet and neither of us has died.. he's at i believe 60 percent and me as Roy (don't ask i did a random character) is at 83 percent.. he whips it out and sunnuvagun the first time he uses it is a nine..

Fast Forward
He hasn't died yet (have i mention i suck with roy and he has been just kinda taking potshots with the Manhole at me and staying away i'm on my third stock at around 45 percent and i have him to 93 percent.. Pulls out the hammer.. boom thats another nine.. he hasn't used it yet and its only like maybe thirty seconds later

This is the worst of it..
I'm at zero percent and he is talking about how the nines being in his favor today and he laughs and yells Nine and hits me with yet another nine sending me outwards out of FD and yet i come back.. and he's hysterically laughing and yells nine again jumps out and nines me to death within i'd say 3 seconds...

If thats not random then i give up disproving this hah

...I think I found out just WHATs going on here...

Anyone try using an AR to watch viewpoints latly?...Guess not...

Well nether have I but lets take a small asumsion here and run with it till concrete proof breaks it...

In the game theres ( or lets "say" there is ) a small octal bit of memery that for every mili-second that passes, it gets added by 1

Octal is Base 8 -> 0-7 for any one collom...or in G&W world...1-8

With this knowlage I think its easy to get in idea on why we see small things like "a guy doing three 9's in one battle" and "no two numbers are ever poping up at the same time".

Then again now this becomes a realy big math game...Just how fast IS the counter? When does justice pull data from it? And does this value start on a random number/does anything influice it?

blarg...I'll say for now this works...because after sitting down with 10,000+ justice numbers in my face trying to make a mathamatical equasion out of it...This was all I could think of...

Then again I think it makes quite a bit of sence...But..I want an AR to FULLY test this idea out before we say "go for it!"

Also: Sorry if this is hard to read...haven't gotten any sleap for a few days and my spelling is bad to begin with >_<;;

 

[mood4food77]

jihnsius...when you took the number of 9's out of that 10,000, you probably should've counted how many times you got the otehr numbers

but since you got 1/8.67, which is fairly close to 1/9, we can take the place and say that without human error it comes close to getting a 9 on the hammer every 1/9 times, therefore being random

one kid proved your same number cannot happen twice in a row theory false
another proved you cannot get a 1 or a 2 on the first and second throws to be false

so we can conclude that the chance of getting any number on g&w's judgement hammer to be random

 

[Jihnsius]

one kid proved your same number cannot happen twice in a row theory false
another proved you cannot get a 1 or a 2 on the first and second throws to be false

so we can conclude that the chance of getting any number on g&w's judgement hammer to be random

I haven't seen any proof whatsoever thus far, unless you're using version 00, but most people don't play that version competitively.

 

[mood4food77]

it was in the 2nd post.....

 

[mood4food77]

my comp is all screwy this week.....

 

[Jihnsius]

Someone claiming for something to have happened is hardly proof, and shouldn't be considered anywhere near substantial considering we have tons of evidence against it. Again, this thread is about determining the mechanics behind the Judgment Hammer. If it -is- completely random, like certain people like to claim, I'd like to see some proof. We have tons of proof against the idea, but no proof for it. See the problem here?

 

[mood4food77]

i know for a fact that i've gotten a 1 and a 2 on the first swing, but never on teh FIRST actual swing of the hammer

meanign that even after i die, i've swung a one or a two, but never on the first actual use of the hammer

 

[-Wolfy-]

I've got to tell ya. I've got about 6 excel documents full of proof that it is random. I haven't done anything with AR so someone will have to pick up from there. I can sincerely say that I haven't seen any sequential patterns, no arithmetic sequences, no methods of improving your odds at a 9. If you want I can post some of the stuff but I'm telling you. It does not seem possible to manipulate. I think it's time to jsut embrace the old superstition, do 2 or so after a kill to increase your odds.

 

[Jihnsius]

I've got to tell ya. I've got about 6 excel documents full of proof that it is random. I haven't done anything with AR so someone will have to pick up from there. I can sincerely say that I haven't seen any sequential patterns, no arithmetic sequences, no methods of improving your odds at a 9. If you want I can post some of the stuff but I'm telling you. It does not seem possible to manipulate. I think it's time to jsut embrace the old superstition, do 2 or so after a kill to increase your odds.

It's random after following the set of rules on the first post, yes. With that agreed upon and no other useful data coming into this study, I think it's time to get this thread locked.

 

[Omnigamer]

Closed at the request of the original poster.