How many copies do you think Smash 4 will sell?

[nat pagle]

How many will it sell overall?

And how many will the Wii U and 3DS versions sell individually?

 

[Dr. James Rustles]

How many will it sell overall?

According to BaPr's poll, at least 52. Don't quote me on that though.

 

[Eternal phoenix Fire]

The question is, how many Wii U's/3DS's Smash 4 will sell?

 

[Dark Phazon]

Hmmmm....if it sells more than Melee..it would be very good for nintendo..it wont sell as good as brawl i no that for a fact.

Also i think the 3DS one will sell more than the Wii U one.

But if your looking for Numbers...f_ck knows.....

Lets see how much Tropical Freeze & 3D World sells or more importantly Mario Kart 8 lets see how much WiiU's Mario Kart 8 sells.

If Pikmin 3 sold decent in japan it doesnt look very good for slightly less appealing titles such as W101 & Bayonetta 2....

 

[Hong]

I think Smash Bros U will flip-the-table on the Wii U entirely. If they are smart they will make a bundle and charge $40-50 more for the system. Personally I will be picking up both versions, along with the Wii U.

I expect about 500k in its first week internationally if it hyped a lot, 7 mil in five or so years from now.

 

[EverythingSmash]

Well Im buying 2 copies of both versions.
I think it will sell amazing if the online play is good and they advertise it making that point.

 

[cmbsfm]

If you don't like overused meme responses then don't open the spoiler

Spoiler

 

[moneyfrenzy]

I think it would have been a smarter business decision on nintendo's end to make it a wii u exclusive, that way more people will buy the wii u instead of just sticking with the 3ds version

 

[TewnLeenk]

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

believe me once super smash bros wii u comes out everyones theory of the wii u not selling well is going to be screwed once it comes out everyone will buy it for that one game and the other future games for it that's just as popular as brawl like the Mario kart 8 for example

 

[Squartle]

I think it would have been a smarter business decision on nintendo's end to make it a wii u exclusive, that way more people will buy the wii u instead of just sticking with the 3ds version

Frankly, I can envision no scenario in which anyone would choose the 3DS version over the Wii U version for anything other than monetary reasons. Diehard Nintendo fans are literally just waiting for a good reason to buy the system, and Smash Bros/Mario Kart/Zelda are it.

 

[lordvaati]

Considering how Brawl sold a million copies in a week,and his is going to be on 2 platforms, I predict at least 750,000 copies on week 1.

 

[nessokman]

Probably needs 900,000 to meet the creation costs.

 

[Mind Ranger]

Possibly more than brawl.....all together.
I think the Wii U version will get more sales though. It just seems that even when people are buying both they are still going to buy the Wii U one first. I am going to try to buy both but definitely getting the Wii u one first.

 

[Pyra]

Well if they release everywhere in the world at once it could prove to be a lot Niue than people think.

 

[grizby2]

this might be the first time that I don't have the console after the game comes out...I need to start saving ye 'olde cash.

 

[SubparSmashBrother]

50-100 million copies.

 

[Homelessvagrant]

a lot

 

[Conis]

Each Smash game so far has topped the previous one in sales, so it seems a pretty safe bet that this one will sell 10 million+.

However...Brawl's sale increase was far less impressive when you account for the fact that it was on a console with a much bigger install base than Melee. You have to figure that's a big reason that it sold so much, and it's attach rate, while pretty good (10-11% or so) was nowhere near Melee's (somewhere around 30%, which is insane).

Then you have to factor in that the Wii U is not selling too well at the moment (though it could pick up in the next year and Smash will definitely help move some units) and the game being on two consoles. All of this makes an informed prediction rather difficult.

So I'm just going to take a mostly random guess and say 9 million sold on Wii U, 5 million on 3DS, for a total of 14 million overall. I will probably end up being horribly wrong.

 

[Dark Phazon]

Frankly, I can envision no scenario in which anyone would choose the 3DS version over the Wii U version for anything other than monetary reasons. Diehard Nintendo fans are literally just waiting for a good reason to buy the system, and Smash Bros/Mario Kart/Zelda are it.

METROOOOIIID !!!! HOW DARE YOU FORGET !!!!

 

[Wtfwasthat]

Enough

 

[Zzuxon]

Roughly oodles.

 

[Fenrir VII]

I can say with absolute certainty that it will sell at least one wii u copy.

 

[Oddyesy]

Enough to circle the Earth 2 billion times.

 

[Starcutter]

 

[Evil-Guy]

I will only buy the Wii U if this game will come out

 

[The Original Robot boy]

Lets just say

 

[The Original Robot boy]

Lets just say

 

[Lemonwater]

Both versions combined, precisely 127,574,786. No more, no less.

How many of each version? ....I don't know. How can you ask me to make such a prediction confidently?

 

[Shade_666]

less than you might think, but more than you might actually think after you think about that.

aka #2many

 

[DakotaBonez]

More than you hoped but less than it deserves

 

[Dark Phazon]

More than you hoped but less than it deserves

Hmmmmmm.......

 

[metalmonstar]

It is an interesting question. The first thing to wonder is if the fanbase is really interested in a handheld version. The second question is are the sales dependent on the install base of the system. The third question is the series growing in popularity?

I think the Wii U's sales will be a bit of a limiter. One game is often not enough to sway everyone to buy the game. Another issue is that the 3DS is widely popular in Japan which will make them more likely to pick up that version rather than the console one. Then we have the diehards that will likely pick up both.

I would like to Say that combined it will be over 10 million. Wii U will sell about 7 million and the 3DS version will sell about 5 million.

 

[SmashChu]

I'll take a stab at it.

First, we need to look at where the series is. Here is sales analysis by VGChartz. The numbers I find at least match this. This is a good look at the sales trend and we'll start here. Each game has sold more than the last with Brawl selling 11.49 million units (see here). Based on this trend, we'd expect the next game's sales to be higher. The X factor here is that there are two games, not one. This means someone who would buy the game could buy either version or both versions. This means sales would be split between both version though Nintendo may benefit as some people will buy both games instead of one. Either way, the sales will look different and it's likely the games individually will sell less because sales are split. If the 3DS and Wii U version both sell 5 million, they still sell and aggregate of 10 million. Now, there are two large forces at play that will effect sales of the game.

The Economy

The economy is anything but healthy. Unemployment is 7.6 percent percent as of Jun 2013 and remains high despite a positive trend. Unemployment could be much higher and there is a thought that the government may be manipulating the ratio. Still, the number is higher than March 2008 where it was 5.1 percent. While it may not seem like a large difference, remember that the US consist of over 300 million people so a percent can be about 3 million people (give or take as the ratios don't take into account everyone). Consumer spending has also seen a decline. What is keeping everything afloat is the Federal Reserve printing 85 billion dollars a month (over a trillion in a year). The printing is very aggressive though it helped the economy in the short term as we are seeing some increase in consumer spending and the stock market going up. However, the future is uncertain. With the Federal Reserve printing, it drives up the price of food and gas which puts pressure on consumers. Also, there is a high risk of hyper inflation (here's Ducktales to make it simple) which can ruining the economy or the country falling back into a recession is the plan doesn't pan out. The Fed has committed to the printing until 2015. The new Smash Brothers game comes out in 2014.

The Wii U

First, each console cycle is a clean slate. So the Wii U will not be able to ride on the wave of the Wii. We are already seeing this as Wii U sales have been very weak. Currently, Wii U sales are tracking below the GameCube (which was one of Nintendo's worst selling consoles). Also, there is a loss of consumer confidence in Nintendo and the weak line up for the Wii U will likely not help and will spread to the Wii U's sales. The Wii U saw a oost in Japan with Pikmin 3, but the Wii U will likely not see a long term increase in sales. One issues that Nintendo's 3DS is poised to cannibalize the Wii U. Nintendo wasn't smart and the 3DS and Wii U games almost mirror each other. Games like Donkey Kong Country Returns and Mario 3D are on both systems. The Smash Brothers game also shares the same name. So for consumers, there is little difference in games between the two systems and one is cheaper. Here is an article that explains it all. Overall, the Wii U is a flawed system and it's market performance shows this.

The issue is a lack of consumer confidence and a weakened economy. The problem, as I mentioned above, is that there are two games, not one. This means consumers can get the game with either the Wii U and 3DS. So, they can pick and chose which means one can cannibalize the other. There is also critical mass. See, if more of the people you know have one, you're more likely to have that one as well.

So here is my guess: The 3DS game will likely cannibalize the Wii U version. There is little interest in the Wii U. The 3DS is cheaper and has a larger library and developer support. Parents will buy the 3DS over the Wii U and the game like up reinforces this purchase. There is also a weak economy which will prevent both from selling well. It will be one or the other. Both games will sell more like Melee. It will be a slow burn and we wont know final numbers until 3-4 years out. The 3DS one will likely sell about 6-8 million. The Wii U one may make it to 3 million. It may due better because of the fact that players will prefer the couch gameplay, but Smash alone can not justify the Wii U purchase and the lineup is weak as it. Because of this, more people will opt for the 3DS version.

 

[Deathconsciousness]

Like, ten.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Perhaps less than Brawl, but more than Melee. Despite it being better than Brawl, and worse than Melee.

 

[Triblaze]

My guess would be slightly more than Mario Kart 8 perhaps?

 

[TheZapp]

3ds version will sell more thats for sure

 

[SS-bros14]

Well let's see, according to my calculations, Smash Bros for 3DS and WiiU together will sell... 'Calculator explodes from too large a number'
Seriously though, I'm guessing a really high number.

 

[R0Y]

Smash 64 is at over 5 million on 32.93 million Nintendo 64 consoles

Melee is the best-selling GC title of all-time at 7.09 million on 21.74 million GameCube consoles. Dat 1/3 attach rate!!!!!

Brawl is at 12.14 million on 101.15 million Wii consoles as of March 31st and June 30th, 2014, respectively. It came out later in its cycle than Melee though, more like Smash 64.

Sources: Nintendo Investor Relations, except the GC number, which is from Nintendo themselves and the over 5 million from CNN.


So basically, Smash has the potential to sell at a very, very, very, good attach rate, about 1/3 at best, particularly if it had launched early on. 6 million on 15 million Wii U's would be phenomenal for the install base size, though a decline from both Melee and Brawl, at least it wouldn't be the lowest-selling Smash ever. 3DS version I wonder about as well, considering the console is getting later in its lifespan and it being a largely console experience with friends, etc.