How many copies do you think Smash 4 will sell?

[8-peacock-8]

The amount: A lot.

 

[KaZe_DaRKWIND]

I think the better question is which will sell more. The 3ds has sold more but lots of people want to play it on a console.
Will be interesting to see.

As of June 2014 6.68 million Wii U consoles have been sold.

As of June 2014 44.14 million 3DS units have been sold.

Which shall win? The console that allows people to use a GC controller or the handheld with a larger userbase?

 

[KaZe_DaRKWIND]

15 million Wii U's

Can I ask where you got that number from?

(This was meant to be in the other post. My bad.)

 

[HeavyLobster]

Combined they'll sell at least 10 million+. The thing about the 3DS version potentially cannibalizing the Wii U version is that in order to play locally, you'll need multiple systems and cartridges for the 3DS, so that either means the cost gap isn't as big as it might seem, or you'll have to forgo a huge part of the Smash experience. If parents are going to satisfy their kids' natural desire to play against each other, they'll either have to get each one a 3DS and cartridge Pokemon style, or get a Wii U. The Wii U's 2015 lineup also appears to be much better than 2014 or 2013's, and it would behoove them to get a couple of early 2015 release dates set in stone prior to Smash U coming out.
For a family with 2 kids that are sharing a 3DS and don't have a Wii U, they'll probably offer a $200 dollar 3DSXL Smash bundle, and with the added cost of a second $40 game, you're only saving $60 off a $300 Smash U bundle. You could also get a 2DS for $130 and 2 cartridges and save $90. Given the advantages of Smash in HD, an exclusive game mode that's sure to be revealed soon, and the rest of the Wii U library, Smash Wii U offers more value. For an only child Smash 3DS might make more sense, and it'll probably take away some sales. However, Smash 3DS will also sell to people who simply were never going to buy a Wii U anyways, especially in Japan, where the console market is dying. Westerners are going to prefer Smash on a console, and the Wii U's library is going to fill out a lot more over the course of the next year, and as the install base grows, people will go back and pick up Smash and Mario Kart alongside new games like Splatoon, Xenoblade, and Zelda. Even the worst case for Wii U lifetime sales is probably around 10-15 million sold, so I think Smash U will get to 5 million considering how dedicated the Wii U install base is in general, while Smash 3DS will probably be a multi-million seller in Japan alone, so it'll probably do even better.

 

[Servine]

I can estimate the Wii U version topping 5m worldwide after Christmas, the 3DS version will roughly be 8m after the same time, too.

 

[Saikyoshi]

The 3DS version will sell 8-10 million copies.

The Wii U version will sell about 5 million. That's just the console's tiny install base for you.

 

[HeavyLobster]

Brawl is at 12.14 million on 101.15 million Wii consoles as of March 31st and June 30th, 2014, respectively. It came out later in its cycle than Melee though, more like Smash 64.
.

Keep in mind that being an actual video game that doesn't come with a weird peripheral basically made Brawl off-limits to about half of the Wii's install base. All Gamecube/N64 owners at least had the ability to push a button while moving a control stick, which was not necessarily the case for Wii owners.

 

[Busterbie]

Could smash run potentionaly. (Sorry that i most likely wrote that wrong, danish is my normal language) make the 3ds one sell even better. Right now the wii u version doesn't seem to have any special main feature. Oh well we'll just have to see. I think that in a month the wii u version will sell 1,2 million

 

[itsaxelol]

disclaimer: im super excited for this game, love all the smash games, and cannot wait until i own both versions

i honestly dont see it doing to well, by smash standards

wii u is a dead system at this point. 3ds will eat wii u sales. which is ironic, since 3ds was doing so bad when it first launched and thats the reason why smash is on it in the first place. then it improved tenfold and now wii u is the joke. what a backfire

the game also doesnt have as much going for it other than "new smash" and this is easily the weakest new roster in the series. mega man is an awesome addition, but lets face it, everyone else is just there. i cant wait to play as mac too but theres a reason he only just made it in; hes not a big deal

i think the backlash this game is going to get once it drops from
1) not being "melee enough" or isnt "inbetween melee and brawl"
2) if at least two of the three holy trinity dont make it in, despite being -the- most requested nintendo characters from 2008-present
wont exactly do the game any favors

ill go with 4 mil on 3ds, and 2 mil on wii

 

[Tristan_win]

To be honest I'm not sure how well the wiiU will sell. It's a big risk for Nintendo to be honest, if smash4 is horrible on the 3DS then the backlash from our community and the casuals masses will be great and people will be really hesitate to buy a wiiU.

Right now I'm just waiting for the gamecube adapter before I buy my WiiU but if smash4 happen to be worst then Brawl (which is possible although I strongly doubt it will be) then I wont be buying a WiiU. It's very possible no matter how good smash4 is though that the 3DS will always have more sales then the WiiU

 

[KaZe_DaRKWIND]

To be honest I'm not sure how well the wiiU will sell. It's a big risk for Nintendo to be honest, if smash4 is horrible on the 3DS then the backlash from our community and the casuals masses will be great and people will be really hesitate to buy a wiiU.

Right now I'm just waiting for the gamecube adapter before I buy my WiiU but if smash4 happen to be worst then Brawl (which is possible although I strongly doubt it will be) then I wont be buying a WiiU. It's very possible no matter how good smash4 is though that the 3DS will always have more sales then the WiiU

I think it's funny how either way it could be bad for the Wii U.

If it's really good people may just stick with the 3ds version. If it's really bad people will stay away from the Wii U version.

Could smash run potentionaly. (Sorry that i most likely wrote that wrong, danish is my normal language) make the 3ds one sell even better. Right now the wii u version doesn't seem to have any special main feature. Oh well we'll just have to see. I think that in a month the wii u version will sell 1,2 million

I think the 3DS one will sell better because it has over 7 times as many consoles sold. Plus it comes out first. I doubt smash run will have much to do with the sales. People are buying it for the smash brothers experience, the smash run will just be a bonus if it's good.

 

[Raijinken]

Many. Ah ah ah.

But really, if they do a Wii U bundle, it will sell both the game and system pretty well. If not, well, their loss of an excellent deal.

 

[Goten21]

I think it would have been a smarter business decision on nintendo's end to make it a wii u exclusive, that way more people will buy the wii u instead of just sticking with the 3ds version

Do you actually believe this?

 

[Hero of the Winds]

I think Smash Bros U will flip-the-table on the Wii U entirely. If they are smart they will make a bundle and charge $40-50 more for the system. Despite the 3DS having a massive install-base, I can't see it selling as well as the Wii U version. It is kind of a reverse scenario in that sense. Personally I will be picking up both versions, along with the Wii U.

I expect about 500k in its first week internationally if it hyped a lot, 7 mil in five or so years from now.

Yeah I was thinking 7-8 mil. I really hope Nintendo is smart and makes the Wii U bundle overpriced because I really want them to make more money >-<

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

Well if we're throwing out mills like it ain't no thing, sign me up for nine. It will sell 9 million.

 

[Superyoshiom]

3DS: 10 Million
Wii U: 8 Million

These are just my uneducated guesses though.

 

[Deleted member]

Probably more than 3.

 

[Storm Eagle]

Over 9000. Wow I'm good.

 

[Logsmash]

I think it would have been a smarter business decision on nintendo's end to make it a wii u exclusive, that way more people will buy the wii u instead of just sticking with the 3ds version

I agree with this, it would have made more sense to make the game a Wii U exclusive. Furthermore, I really wish Nintendo had held off on releasing the Wii U until 2013, since they (for the most part) have the same number of games NOW as they did then.

2012/early 2013 was a bad time for the Wii U.

 

[Makaronileo]

Very many.

But more 3ds

 

[D-idara]

wii u is a dead system at this point. 3ds will eat wii u sales. which is ironic, since 3ds was doing so bad when it first launched and thats the reason why smash is on it in the first place. then it improved tenfold and now wii u is the joke. what a backfire

Typical 'The Boy who cried Nintendo is doomed!' business going on here, the Wii U isn't dead at all, buddy.
The Wii U version will probably boost the Wii U sales around 3mil, with most of those being Smash purchases.

 

[R0Y]

wii u is a dead system at this point. 3ds will eat wii u sales. which is ironic, since 3ds was doing so bad when it first launched and thats the reason why smash is on it in the first place. then it improved tenfold and now wii u is the joke. what a backfire

On an install base to sale ratio, Smash U will obliterate Smash 3DS.

While I agree some naive people will cannibalize Wii U version sales, you don't know what you're talking about.

Smash 3DS and Wii U were announced at the same E3 the Wii U was, so it's not the reason.

3DS isn't doing hot lately either. From price cut in late 2011 through all of 2012 it had a good time in the US and from 2011 to 2013 in Japan. Smartphones have really eaten into the dedicated handheld market unfortunately, and the attach rate for software is shockingly low for 3 years into the system's lifespan, which implies to me that a lot of the 44+ million users are repeat customers who bought another model or special edition.

 

[NoiseHERO]

It's gotta sell more Wii-U's than Mario-kart 8 did.

I bet if it was on XBOX and PS3 tho it'd be a GTAV killer

 

[Booster]

Smash 3DS: 11 Million (Assuming 1/4th of the 3DS owners buy this due to Smash's fanbase and high sales)

Smash Wii U: 1.5 Million (Assuming 1/4th Wii U owners buy this due to Wii U's niche fanbase)

While it won't sell anywhere near as much, the Wii U Smash will be the superior version. I like Wii U, but this is the way it is with it not being a Wii U exclusive. 3DS games are $20 cheaper and the average parent is going to take a look at both versions for their Nintendo kid, they're going to say "**** the Wii U version, $60? $40 for 3DS is unreasonable, but it's the lesser of two evils" and buy the 3DS version.

Grandparents will take a look at the game, think it's too violent for Little Billy and go buy him some Spongebob trash. The average FPS fan will look at Wii U and gag because the games are too different from Call of Assassin's Battlefield 2K15 Ghost Ops Madden NFL 2014. It's unfortunate, but it's the price of the game being on multiple platforms.

 

[R0Y]

Smash 3DS: 11 Million (Assuming 1/4th of the 3DS owners buy this due to Smash's fanbase and high sales)

Smash Wii U: 1.5 Million (Assuming 1/4th Wii U owners buy this due to Wii U's niche fanbase)

Unlikely. Brawl already proved that when the install base dramatically increases, it doesn't affect Smash as much as many other titles, like Mario Kart. Smash has a large hardcore following. Also, you're not counting future install base.

I'd say something like 8 million lifetime on 3DS, which matches up with this and declining sales.

For Wii U I say the console eventually hits 15-20 million units, on the back of all the great games, and Smash U ends up at an astounding 5-8 million units sold. It's an uphill climb but Wii U owners do buy more software and that's been a trend since NES vs Game Boy.

Nintendo consoles are at this point a niche.

Wii U has a far smaller install base, but almost none of those people own multiple consoles and the hardware has a higher software attach rate already, less than 2 years in. People know this is where the best Smash experience will be. Nintendo home consoles have always had higher software to console attach rates.

While it won't sell anywhere near as much, the Wii U Smash will be the superior version. I like Wii U, but this is the way it is with it not being a Wii U exclusive. 3DS games are $20 cheaper and the average parent is going to take a look at both versions for their Nintendo kid, they're going to say "**** the Wii U version, $60? $40 for 3DS is unreasonable, but it's the lesser of two evils" and buy the 3DS version.

While true, let's be honest....loads of kids these days are playing junk like Angry Birds on hand-me down smartphones. The remaining Nintendo core is more likely to know what they're asking for and talking about. Realistically Nintendo's audience is older than ever and they're struggling to find a new generation, that, if they focus on consoles at all, want COD and such. Kids want to pretend to be "mature."

 

[HeavyLobster]

ill go with 4 mil on 3ds, and 2 mil on wii

No way it sells that low. Mario Kart 8 has already passed 2 mil and Smash 3DS could sell close to 4 mil in Japan alone.

 

[itsaxelol]

Typical 'The Boy who cried Nintendo is doomed!' business going on here, the Wii U isn't dead at all, buddy.
The Wii U version will probably boost the Wii U sales around 3mil, with most of those being Smash purchases.

typical overly defensive fanboy. dont lose any sleep over my comments, junior

On an install base to sale ratio, Smash U will obliterate Smash 3DS.

While I agree some naive people will cannibalize Wii U version sales, you don't know what you're talking about.

Smash 3DS and Wii U were announced at the same E3 the Wii U was, so it's not the reason.
.

you are having trouble comprehending what i meant. do you really think i didnt know they werent announced at the same time? lol

wii u wasnt out. 3ds was. 3ds was a disaster. make smash on the 3ds too to help it survive. 3ds ends up doing good anyway and now the wii u is a disaster

and yea nowhere is that confirmed or quoted. just what i think, could be wrong. dont harp on it

 

[ChikoLad]

It's going to be harder to judge Smash's sales within the first month due to the fact that the games release in different regions at different times. We can't directly compare it to say, Mario Kart 8, within the first week of release, since that game released everywhere over the course of a weekend.

However, since Mario Kart 8 sold 1.2 million in it's first weekend, I reckon the collective first weekend sales of Smash for every region will be about that, give or take.

While you might say Mario Kart 8 is guaranteed to sell more, and while that could end up true in the long run, I think Smash will sell more in the short term. The Wii and 3DS had huge install bases, and both are highly populated by less dedicated gamers. However, it's well known that a lot of less dedicated or less knowledgeable gamers have not bought Wii U's because they don't even realise it's a different system to the Wii. A lot of people, such as your soccer moms and what not, think it's literally just and upgraded Wii. They think it's what the DS Lite was to the original DS, or something.

So that means the majority of the Wii U owners are probably dedicated, core gamers. And Smash interests them more than Mario Kart, for the most part.

Mario Kart Wii and 7 sold so highly because those systems would be casual dominated in terms of consumers, but the Wii U is dominated by core gamers. Mario Kart 8 is doing well but I think Smash will interest the Wii U's current install base a lot more.

And the 3DS version will sell like hotcakes. May not surpass the likes of Pokémon but it will sell like hotcakes, no question about it.

And that will only help the Wii U game since you're gonna see an advertisement for the Wii U game on the back of the box, and every time you boot up the 3DS game:

 

[Accf124]

Infinite since people will keep buying it

 

[R0Y]

you are having trouble comprehending what i meant. do you really think i didnt know they werent announced at the same time? lol

wii u wasnt out. 3ds was. 3ds was a disaster. make smash on the 3ds too to help it survive. 3ds ends up doing good anyway and now the wii u is a disaster

and yea nowhere is that confirmed or quoted. just what i think, could be wrong. dont harp on it

You are having trouble comprehending what I meant.

do you really think i didnt know they werent announced at the same time? lol

Maybe try to state your "point" intelligently then, lol.

3ds will eat wii u sales. which is ironic, since 3ds was doing so bad when it first launched and thats the reason why smash is on it in the first place.

That makes zero sense. 3DS didn't turn around because of a Smash announcement before any screens or anything showed up. Sales actually continued to decline until the price cut. It wouldn't have magically not existed if the 3DS were doing better and the console had amazing sales, that would just mean more copies sold.

Learn some basic reading comprehension and punctuation please. GR8 B8 M8, ignored.

 

[Booster]

I think it would have been a smarter business decision on nintendo's end to make it a wii u exclusive, that way more people will buy the wii u instead of just sticking with the 3ds version

Sakurai really ****ed up with that, there's no denying that.

 

[KaZe_DaRKWIND]

Sakurai really ****ed up with that, there's no denying that.

I don't see why people think it would make a huge difference. Sure more people might get Wii U's but the 3DS will still likely sell more.

 

[Booster]

I don't see why people think it would make a huge difference. Sure more people might get Wii U's but the 3DS will still likely sell more.

That's just it, Wii U needs more sales, as it is at the moment it is more niche then PS3 RPGs like Trinity Universe and that game is so niche it's not even funny (Or very fun unless you're Japanese/Super Otaku)

 

[Hong]

@ itsaxelol @ R R0Y
Ribbing at each other is completely unnecessary. Let's keep it clean.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Like Mario Kart 8, this will boost sales of the WiiU a ton.

 

[Senario]

So the 3ds has about a 40mil install base last I checked and the wii U has a 7 mil installbase.

Assuming your regular consumer won't double dip I'd bet on around 4-6 million. Maybe 7 million total. I wouldn't expect anything above 8 mil or even close to 10 mil consideirng the Wii was a lot more numerous than both systems combined and sold approx 10 ish % of it's installbase. Add to the fact that gaming is very different nowadays with the landscape dominated by third party and western devs and you may see maybe a 10% attach rate for the combined installbase of both systems.

Just a guess though. Honestly the game will sell decently well regardless of how it turns out. That is how popular games are in general, there will always be a userbase who will buy the game almost always. Hence how yearly release games do so well despite the "outcry" over them.

 

[Vintage Creep]

In total, I'd say 6 to 8 millions on 3DS and 3 to 5 millions on WiiU.

 

[R0Y]

So the 3ds has about a 40mil install base last I checked and the wii U has a 7 mil installbase.

Assuming your regular consumer won't double dip I'd bet on around 4-6 million. Maybe 7 million total. I wouldn't expect anything above 8 mil or even close to 10 mil consideirng the Wii was a lot more numerous than both systems combined and sold approx 10 ish % of it's installbase. Add to the fact that gaming is very different nowadays with the landscape dominated by third party and western devs and you may see maybe a 10% attach rate for the combined installbase of both systems.

Just a guess though. Honestly the game will sell decently well regardless of how it turns out. That is how popular games are in general, there will always be a userbase who will buy the game almost always. Hence how yearly release games do so well despite the "outcry" over them.

Melee sold more than half what Brawl did on a console that had about 1/5th the total sales. It's hard to say.

 

[Senario]

Melee sold more than half what Brawl did on a console that had about 1/5th the total sales. It's hard to say.

Well you have to remember that was 13 years ago. Back then the gamecube wasn't super popular but at the time Nintendo had a lot more of a presence in games. Nowadays you have huge amounts of people lining up for the next Shooter/RPG/whatever game from ____ Publishing company or people who simply prefer other non-nintendo styled games. Some of them have really immature opinions but nowadays there are a lot more people interested in other games and people only have so much money. Considering the rise of western game companies and publishers along with the relative decline of the popularity of Nintendo stuff I think it is safe to assume that percentage wise about 10% of the total installbase will buy smash 4. A very small group will double dip. Smash will always be popular but the fact is Japanese games simply aren't as popular as they used to be. For better or worse.

I just don't think we will reach melee install base percent wise. Melee sold to about 1/3rd of users. Brawl sold to 1/10th.

And as a player of all games there are a few games competing for my interest around the holiday season and the fall season in general assuming I haven't gotten them yet. Borderlands the Pre-sequel, Dragon Age: Inquisition, Pokemon Ruby/Sapphire, Bayonetta 2, and Hyrule warriors. I am unlikely to get all of these on release but around winter is steam sales so hence they may interest me then. Then you have other games that people may be interested in like Tomb Raider, Far Cry 4, CoD, Assassin's creed, and so on.

 

[R0Y]

Well you have to remember that was 13 years ago. Back then the gamecube wasn't super popular but at the time Nintendo had a lot more of a presence in games. Nowadays you have huge amounts of people lining up for the next Shooter/RPG/whatever game from ____ Publishing company or people who simply prefer other non-nintendo styled games. Some of them have really immature opinions but nowadays there are a lot more people interested in other games and people only have so much money. Considering the rise of western game companies and publishers along with the relative decline of the popularity of Nintendo stuff I think it is safe to assume that percentage wise about 10% of the total installbase will buy smash 4. A very small group will double dip. Smash will always be popular but the fact is Japanese games simply aren't as popular as they used to be. For better or worse.

I just don't think we will reach melee install base percent wise. Melee sold to about 1/3rd of users. Brawl sold to 1/10th.

And as a player of all games there are a few games competing for my interest around the holiday season and the fall season in general assuming I haven't gotten them yet. Borderlands the Pre-sequel, Dragon Age: Inquisition, Pokemon Ruby/Sapphire, Bayonetta 2, and Hyrule warriors. I am unlikely to get all of these on release but around winter is steam sales so hence they may interest me then. Then you have other games that people may be interested in like Tomb Raider, Far Cry 4, CoD, Assassin's creed, and so on.

A game like MK8 sold to much more than 1/10th the install base IN ONE DAY. It sold over 1 million on an install base of roughly 6.2 million in 24 or 48 hours, I forgot which. Give Smash some credit too. Also, console-wise, the GC was only slightly ahead of Wii U today at a much lower price. I agree with you though about Nintendo popularity because the GBA was extremely popular its lifespan, but console-wise it wasn't too much better than today, really.

Smash will sell to more than 1/10th the Wii U's install base in one day alone. When Nintendo is left with their core they survive on software sales, that's how they eventually profited on GameCube.