Media Hocus Pocus Odds

GhostM

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I’d like to say that these stats were not concluded by me at all, but were by a JP Smash Researcher. It appears that when using Hocus Pocus, everyone knows that there is a random chance of either obtaining another spell move, something awful and great. Thanks to Meshima_ via twitter, we are able to see the exact odds of each outcome from the use of Hocus Pocus.

B0496775-161D-484F-BE85-5CEC0559646C.jpeg

The sum of the odds:
16.16% chance for a good outcome.
38.41% chance for a bad outcome.
45.43% chance to use a random spell.


I’m not sure about these percents, but so far Hocus Pocus isn’t a very viable option to use, especially since it has a 5.07% chance to appear in the command menu. These percentages might be off, and will be corrected if there’s an error.
 

Ben Holt

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0% chance of being a viable move competitively.
 

GhostM

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0% chance of being a viable move competitively.
That’s correct. Adding up the percentage of getting a random spell and getting an awful outcome comes out to 83.84%, which makes it an awful command to use during competitive play. If you’re lucky, you’ll have a 16.16% chance to get something good out of Hocus Pocus.
 

TriforceBun

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That’s correct. Adding up the percentage of getting a random spell and getting an awful outcome comes out to 83.84%, which makes it an awful command to use during competitive play. If you’re lucky, you’ll have a 16.16% chance to get something good out of Hocus Pocus.
Sorta. I can see the argument that using a random spell (nearly all of which benefit Hero in some way) for only 4 MP could be a good deal. That's far fewer MP than any Command Selection, really. But definitely a roll of the dice either way.
 
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Amazing Ampharos

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I think the important thing is to realize it's a hail mary. The average outcome of using Hocus Pocus is bad so in even or winning positions it's a mostly bad decision to use Hocus Pocus, but some of its outcomes are very good (super mushroom and invincibility effects are both much better than anything else in your kit). It makes sense to use Hocus Pocus when you're losing to such an extent that your probability of winning via conventional play is lower than the probability that Hocus Pocus will do something to drastically shift the game in your favor.

Given that the two overwhelmingly good effects add up to a 6.1% chance of happening, I think it's almost always going to be about the following situation that using Hocus Pocus could be a rational decision. You and your opponent are both on last stock. You are at a very high percent with low MP. Your opponent is at a very low percent and not in an otherwise precarious position (they aren't off-stage or anything). You will almost always lose from this game state conventionally since you have limited options, must do a lot more to win, and will lose to the next kill move, but you're just close enough to "in the game" for invincibility/super mushroom effects to let you steal the game if they happened. In this state, getting the full MP restoration may also let you offer further resistance, and you might just use some random other spell that is expensive with a useful effect like Kaboom so there's a lot of secondary ways it can at least help you with the odds of it going poorly being mostly unimportant (because your baseline assumption is that you lose).

The other much rarer situation it might make sense is if you survive to a truly obscene percentage. Like lets say you are also running low on MP and you've somehow survived to 210% on your first stock while the opponent is on the second. At this point, non-kill moves will kill you so you have really almost nothing left you can do to extend this stock, but you get a chance to use Hocus Pocus, and hey the invincibility star effect might let you do more with an otherwise dead stock. This is very rare (even at 150% I'd rather force my opponent to land a kill move than gamble if I'm ahead so you need the rare stock where your opponent truly just cannot end you), and if I have a lot of MP, I'd rather just cycle for better direct options or camp with Frizz at over 200%, but if the end is truly here for a very well extended stock, there's a thread of logic of just going for it when the menu by sheer luck gives you Hocus Pocus.
 

GhostM

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I think the important thing is to realize it's a hail mary. The average outcome of using Hocus Pocus is bad so in even or winning positions it's a mostly bad decision to use Hocus Pocus, but some of its outcomes are very good (super mushroom and invincibility effects are both much better than anything else in your kit). It makes sense to use Hocus Pocus when you're losing to such an extent that your probability of winning via conventional play is lower than the probability that Hocus Pocus will do something to drastically shift the game in your favor.

Given that the two overwhelmingly good effects add up to a 6.1% chance of happening, I think it's almost always going to be about the following situation that using Hocus Pocus could be a rational decision. You and your opponent are both on last stock. You are at a very high percent with low MP. Your opponent is at a very low percent and not in an otherwise precarious position (they aren't off-stage or anything). You will almost always lose from this game state conventionally since you have limited options, must do a lot more to win, and will lose to the next kill move, but you're just close enough to "in the game" for invincibility/super mushroom effects to let you steal the game if they happened. In this state, getting the full MP restoration may also let you offer further resistance, and you might just use some random other spell that is expensive with a useful effect like Kaboom so there's a lot of secondary ways it can at least help you with the odds of it going poorly being mostly unimportant (because your baseline assumption is that you lose).

The other much rarer situation it might make sense is if you survive to a truly obscene percentage. Like lets say you are also running low on MP and you've somehow survived to 210% on your first stock while the opponent is on the second. At this point, non-kill moves will kill you so you have really almost nothing left you can do to extend this stock, but you get a chance to use Hocus Pocus, and hey the invincibility star effect might let you do more with an otherwise dead stock. This is very rare (even at 150% I'd rather force my opponent to land a kill move than gamble if I'm ahead so you need the rare stock where your opponent truly just cannot end you), and if I have a lot of MP, I'd rather just cycle for better direct options or camp with Frizz at over 200%, but if the end is truly here for a very well extended stock, there's a thread of logic of just going for it when the menu by sheer luck gives you Hocus Pocus.
I can understand that as well since Hocus Pocus is a spell that can serve you well under certain circumstances and situations. I know that some people who do want Hero banned don’t like the comparison of his RNG to G&W’s hammer, but G&W’s hammer does act like Hocus Pocus in a sort of way, where it can be used in situations to either help you or do nothing at all.

I originally thought of it being a move that was only to be used if you were at least a stock or two ahead of your opponent, since a 16.16% chance is a very small margin to obtain 100 MP, or even get the Super Mushroom or Invincibility. Almost forgot about invisibility. Since there’s small room to receive benefits, I did deem it unviable right on the spot, but you’re response really made me realize that it can also be applied situational wise even in top level play.

Now that I look at it, it serves a much better purpose and although it probably won’t be viable in top level play because of the low odds to receive a good outcome, in the end it’s all about the situation and sheer luck.
 

Krysco

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I’m not sure about these percents, but so far Hocus Pocus isn’t a very viable option to use, especially since it has a 5.07% chance to appear in the command menu. These percentages might be off, and will be corrected if there’s an error.
How do you know the percentage of Hocus Pocus appearing on the menu? Has that information been datamined yet and if so, do you know the percentages the other spells have of appearing on the menu? The most I know is spells cannot appear on the menu if they were on the last one (except for when you lose a stock), Heal can only appear twice per stock, you can't get both Sizz and Sizzle or Whack and Thwack or Bang and Kaboom on the same menu and Zoom has a higher chance of appearing when you're near the blastzone. Spells like Hocus Pocus, Kamikazee and Magic Burst appear to have an overall lower chance of appearing on the menu than other spells.
 

GhostM

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How do you know the percentage of Hocus Pocus appearing on the menu? Has that information been datamined yet and if so, do you know the percentages the other spells have of appearing on the menu? The most I know is spells cannot appear on the menu if they were on the last one (except for when you lose a stock), Heal can only appear twice per stock, you can't get both Sizz and Sizzle or Whack and Thwack or Bang and Kaboom on the same menu and Zoom has a higher chance of appearing when you're near the blastzone. Spells like Hocus Pocus, Kamikazee and Magic Burst appear to have an overall lower chance of appearing on the menu than other spells.
You can thank Meshima for that, since I believe him and someone else worked together to get certain percents. All I know is that zoom has x3 to appear when close to blastline, and Metal Slash is x4 when a metal opponent is on stage.

I have the list for you:
Sizz: 25.79%
Sizzle: 20.63%
Bang: 25.79%
Kaboom: 20.63%
Snooze: 25.52%
Flame Slash: 26.8%
Kacrackle Smash: 26.8%
Metal Slash: 11.43% / 45.72% (When the opponent is Metal.)
Hatchet Man: 26.8%
Whack: 17.58%
Thwack: 11.72%
Magic Burat: 7.96%
Kamikazee: 7.96%
Psyche Up: 24.22%
Oomph: 24.22%
Acceleratle: 24.22%
Kaclang: 8.3%
Bounce: 24.22%
Heal: 11.43%
Zoom: 22.9% / ~53% (Only when near blastline)
Hocus Pocus: 5.07%
 
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