So, I'm feeling like Shulk is literally the ONLY safe bet this time around as far as newcomers go.
I lurked the K. Rool thread a little, and they seem to think that K .Rool is 100% in, just like some of the Ridley peeps are fully expecting Rids, but I don't know, I just don't see those two making it.
Shulk however has stacks of evidence in his favor, fits in with Sakurai's mind (Two fire emblem characters in Melee because he liked the franchise and he also seems to like Xenoblade), and was completely relevant by the time the roster was decided. And I know that relevancy isn't a completely valid argument, but at the same time Shulk's relevancy was through Project Rainfall, which showed Nintendo how much people wanted Xenoblade in the states. And yes, popularity does indeed help a character earn a spot. Not ONLY popularity of course, but it certainly helps.
What do all of you think?