Fire and Lightning Mafia 3: New Mods vs Old Mods! - Game Over New Mods win!

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

And giraffelasergun

 

[Nintendofreak]

So do we No-Lynch and see how FE flips or do we try our odds at finding one of the New Mods.
I think it's risky either way, more so on the scum-hunting attempt, but do we even have a chance if we don't?
Guess I'll do some math:

We have:
4 Town, 2 NewMods, 1 OldMod

If we No Lynch:

• If FE flips OldMod it becomes:
  • (4 Town, 2 NewMods, kill power N5) (Bad)

NewMods switch to kill power and kill confirmed Pythag N5. 3 Town vs 2 Scum, on D5 a mislynch/nolynch become a loss, etc​

• If FE flips NewMod it becomes:
  • (4 Town, 1 NewMod, 1 OldMod, incap) (OK/Bad)

We still have to worry about incaps, but there's potential for a win on D5 here. If one scum incaps another and the other gets lynched.​

This could still go south if double town incap, etc.​

• If FE flips town it becomes:
  • (3 Town, 2 NewMods, 1 OldMod, incap) (Bad)

In this scenario, on D5 things get interesting. We still have to worry about incaps, but the NewMods are close to winning outright it the incaps are in their favor or a mislynch occurs.​

So obviously we want FE to flip NewMod, but that's not in our control now. The only control we have is to decide to No Lynch and face one of these scenarios, or find one of the New Mods. None of the No Lynch scenarios end in an immediate loss, but some are worse than others.

If we lynch a OldMod we have
4 town, 2 NewMods

• If FE flips town
  • (3 town, 2 NewMods, kill power N5) (Lose)
• If FE flips NewMod
  • (4 town, 1 NewMod, kill power N5) (OK)

If we lynch a town we have
3 town, 2 NewMods, 1 OldMod

• If FE flips town
  • (2 town, 2 NewMods, 1 OldMod, incaps) (very unlikely to win this, Bad/Lose)
• If FE flips OldMod
  • (3 town, 2 NewMods, kill power N5) (Lose)
• If FE flips NewMod
  • (3 town, 1 NewMod, 1 OldMod, incaps) (OK/Bad)

​

If we lynch a NewMod we have
4 town, 1 NewMods, 1 OldMod

• If FE flips town
  • (3 town, 1 NewMod, 1 OldMod, incaps) (OK/Bad)
• If FE flips OldMod
  • (4 town, 1 NewMod, kill power N5) (OK)
• If FE flips NewMod
  • (4 town, 1 OldMod, kill power N5) (OK)

These are mostly my math thoughts.
Lynch = "Risk of immediate loss, potential better scenarios"
No Lynch = "No risk of immediate loss, higher chance of bad scenarios anyway"

If we give Scum kill power, Pythag is dead. Just FYI

 

[giraffelasergun]

I think the only reason we should lynch today is if we knew with certainty that someone is a NewMod, otherwise this might be too much of a risk, especially if fire isn't a new mod.

Have some more thoughts that I can provide once I can get home tonight, work has been a bit of a pain in the rear these past few days.

 

[Pythag]

These are mostly my math thoughts.
Lynch = "Risk of immediate loss, potential better scenarios"
No Lynch = "No risk of immediate loss, higher chance of bad scenarios anyway"

If we give Scum kill power, Pythag is dead. Just FYI

I agree with all of this.

So the question we should really be discussing is :

Do you think FE is town or scum, and why?

I would really like everyone to respond to that question, rather than if they think we should NL or not.

 

[Deleted member]

General vibe FE gives is that of scum coasting by tbh.
There's technically a higher chance of him being scum than not too, but it's important to remember there are three very inactive users which I'd say put chances of him being Town slightly higher as it's much more likely the scum is hiding in the inactives.

I'll go with... Town then. If nothing else, because we'd be prepared for the worst case scenario.

 

[Pythag]

isn't it just a 50/50 shot of him being scum?

 

[Nintendofreak]

isn't it just a 50/50 shot of him being scum?

Correct, 3 unconfirmed town, 3 scum

 

[Fire Emblemier]

I'm town, but I understand you can't rule out the possibility of me being scum. I will say you can guarentee that I am not Old mods as if I was there would be no reason to hide it as it would mean I already lost, so manipulating today's lynch wouldn't matter.

Given that we don't know who is an new mod member I'd vouch for a no lynch.

 

[Deleted member]

isn't it just a 50/50 shot of him being scum?

Oh yeah right, I wasn't taking myself into consideration.

 

[Pythag]

#HBC | Red Ryu are the mafia allowed to not put in an action at night? Are they allowed to not cap someone?

 

[Pythag]

I don't like that everything is a coinflip right now, but I'm rereading and trying to put things together.
FireEm, I keep writing your name as Fe, and it makes me want to give you the nickname Iron.

Who are you leaning as scum right now?

 

[Fire Emblemier]

I don't like that everything is a coinflip right now, but I'm rereading and trying to put things together.
FireEm, I keep writing your name as Fe, and it makes me want to give you the nickname Iron.

Who are you leaning as scum right now?

Yeah, I'm used to the nickname Fe around here, that and Fire. While I get the Iron joke I have yet to see anyone call me that or I just forgotten.

I'm leaning towards GLG as scum honestly. I feel he might be a safer bet as New mods since Wright seemed to be suspicious of him when he was alive

 

[Fire Emblemier]

I'm going to relook at Wright's post and see if anything comes up as softballing another player.

 

[Nintendofreak]

Vote: Time Extension

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

#HBC | Red Ryu are the mafia allowed to not put in an action at night? Are they allowed to not cap someone?

They could technically not put a name in.

Then the next day you would vote among the one player to live.

2 hours til deadline!

 

[Pokechu]

I'm alive!!!! part 2

feat. inactivity

I've just been SURPRISINGLY exhausted for some reason, I think I might've subconsciously gone in hibernation after college ended

but IDK I still kind of like Fire.... I'll try to reread the thread but I'm not sure I can post real thoughts in two hours, a lot's been on my plate RIP

 

[Maven89]

vote time extension

Uncap: Pythag

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

2 more for an extension

 

[Pokechu]

vote time extension

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

1 more then I will grant it

 

[Fire Emblemier]

vote time extension

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

You got it

Deadlines moved to tomorrow at 9:15 am

 

[Pythag]

Interesting.
I was trying to figure out if we voted NL if the mafia would do the same, and literally we'd be in the exact same situation.
but it looks like even if one scum team doesn't put a vote in, the other one still can, but that single person would be voted on to be uncapped.

I don't know if we have to worry about them pulling this trick though.

Literally no one is posting anything.

Nintendofreak re-iterated what I wrote.
Shish is on lack of activity hunt.
Maven, GLG, and Chu are pretty nonexistant.

I regret lynching lady hardcore rn.

 

[Deleted member]

Interesting.
I was trying to figure out if we voted NL if the mafia would do the same, and literally we'd be in the exact same situation.
but it looks like even if one scum team doesn't put a vote in, the other one still can, but that single person would be voted on to be uncapped.

I don't know if we have to worry about them pulling this trick though.

I'm not sure what you're trying to get at here? What trick do you think scum would try to pull?

 

[Nintendofreak]

Personally I was worried that people would come out of the woodwork and start voting someone last night. It's the biggest reason I wanted to extend the timer since the conversation died down. I know you need 4 to lynch someone, but we had 3 very quiet people so, I didn't want to leave it up to them.

 

[Pythag]

I'm not sure what you're trying to get at here? What trick do you think scum would try to pull?

If we NL, mafia essentially NL, by not selecting anyone, leaving us in the same situation.

It was a very half baked idea. I don’t think they would do such a thing.

 

[Deleted member]

If we NL, mafia essentially NL, by not selecting anyone, leaving us in the same situation.

It was a very half baked idea. I don’t think they would do such a thing.

Oh you mean if they were to just not kill anyome during Night?

But regardless, we should decide whether or not we're gonna lynch someone toDay already.

 

[Pythag]

I'm almost equally suspicious of everyone rn.

Vote : No Lynch for the time being

 

[Nintendofreak]

Probably for the best, Vote: No Lynch

We got 1 or 2 messages from the people who had to be pinged again, but that's not really enough to do anything at this moment.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

At a con give me a bit to count the votes

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Votecount:
(1) Maven: shish
(2) No lynch: pythag, Nintendo freak

Uncaps:
(5) Pythag: Fire emblemier, Shish, Nintendo Freak, Pythag, maven,


Deadline 5/17 9:15 am Cst

Those are the votes gonna flip in a second

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

No lynch occurs,

Fire emblemier was not saved and flipped VT. They were targeted by the old mods.

You got until noon tomorrow for night actions.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Both teams picked Pokechu and thus is dead. Pokechu flips Vanilla Townie.

Takes 3 to lynch. Deadline set for 1:00pm 5/22

Pythag
Maven89
@Shishœ
giraffelasergun
Nintendofreak

 

[Deleted member]

Well... this is awkward...

 

[Pythag]

I'm so done with this game

 

[Nintendofreak]

Ah the old 2 town, 3 scum scenario. Odds are good now lol

 

[Maven89]

Vote: Shishoe

 

[Pythag]

I might actually be for that

 

[Deleted member]

Leaving a vote up when all that's needed for a majority lynch are 3 votes is not something I like to see at all tbh.

I might actually be for that

I'd question Maven's reasoning but it's basically confirmed he's scum now so imstead I'm just gonna ask you: why?

 

[Pythag]

Actually I might not be.

Are you also uncomfortable with leaving a vote on maven?

Nintendofreak why shouldn't I vote for you?