I would say advantage still goes to Falco perhaps not 35-65 but I'd say 40-60. Is your CG > Fair spike truly inescapable for Falco, I believe I saw somebody saying Yoshi's Spike isn't guaranteed against somebody who it was claimed to be guaranteed on because they can choose a better direction to DI to and make it out safely, have all of Falco's escape options been tested? And even so it's not like if you get a grab it's gg, you have to have the final grab's placement at the correct space from the edge for it to be "inescapable" from what I heard.
The only Yoshi I've played was Furbs, and only a few times at that, and I don't frequent the yoshi boards so I'm giving non-grab play advantages to Falco, lasers ****, I'm thinking aerial priority other than Yoshi's Dair. I guess eggs can't really be reflected back so at least your projectile doesn't get ***** by the reflector.
Just some weak insight and it's all just in my opinion as someone who isn't very experienced in the match-up.