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Elma for Smash Ultimate: Strength comes from experience. That’s true on any planet.

Rie Sonomura

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Verg has said there is an upcoming new Square Enix character, but it seems to be unlikely that it's Geno. I would think another FF rep, Agnes from Bravely Default, or Neku from the World Ends With You. It's also not clear yet if said SE rep is on the base roster or DLC.
 

Nonno Umby

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Verg has said there is an upcoming new Square Enix character, but it seems to be unlikely that it's Geno. I would think another FF rep, Agnes from Bravely Default, or Neku from the World Ends With You. It's also not clear yet if said SE rep is on the base roster or DLC.
Personally I would love Agnés in the game. Bravely Default is one of my favourite 3DS games.
About Vergeben, he has heard that this character is in the game, but since many people asked about it in conjunction with that dumb box theory he now wants to check if this character isn't DLC. It should be nited that he never even thought about him being DLC before this whole box theory came out, and since his whole reputation as a lekaer rides on his Smash leak he wants to be extra sure about everything. That's also why he didn't say Inceneroar until he was sure just some days ago.
 

Luviant X

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I think the lack of many people guessing Elma is that they are unaware of all the clues she possibly has. The lack of Xenoblade music, Sawano's secret project and his picture with apparently 2 other musician involved with Ultimate, how there hasn't been any X content when it is impossible they are just going to ignore one of the Wii U biggest titles.
That's a lot solidier than any chair, missing AT or placeholder box TBH.

Also people since the August Direct just jumped ship on bandwagon characters and "muh picks from Brawl", the worst case being Skull Kid. No one had him on their radar, heck SourceGaming even gave him a 10% chance, but suddenly after that Direct he is a lock for everyone, while they ignore the fact that it all started from a leaker who has since been proved to be a troll.

Also another problem with the general speculation is that they just look at Rex and Pyra, ignoring that they wouldn't have made it back in 2015. It's almost like X wasn't a real game for them. But thankfully Sakurai isn't someone who overlooks or forgets games...
Post of the year. *Claps*
 

Fire Tactician

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Personally I would love Agnés in the game. Bravely Default is one of my favourite 3DS games.
About Vergeben, he has heard that this character is in the game, but since many people asked about it in conjunction with that dumb box theory he now wants to check if this character isn't DLC. It should be nited that he never even thought about him being DLC before this whole box theory came out, and since his whole reputation as a lekaer rides on his Smash leak he wants to be extra sure about everything. That's also why he didn't say Inceneroar until he was sure just some days ago.
Supposedly the Incineroar stuff was because their sources weren't sure until later... but it doesn't add up to me either. The way I see it, it could be one of two things...
  1. Vergeben got some legitimate info (E3, Simon, Isabelle) and then sprinkled in his most likely guesses with actual fact to pull the wool over people's eyes. While some think that the Gematsu leaker had an early draft of info, I personally think that he did just that and ran with what he knew was for sure. Little Mac, Palutena, Miis, Pac-Man, and a super vague "Gen VI Pokemon" were easy guesses, with him specifically baulking at identifying the Pokemon rep and missing Rosalina and Luma. Chrom was also an easy guess, while Choir Kids were likely to not be disconfirmed until the release, so he wasn't expecting Robin to throw a wrench in his "leak." Now that the Box Theory might be true, Vergeben might be backpedalling to save his leak since he overpredicted the amount of characters that the game is going to have. If Ultimate had, let's say, five extra newcomers, Vergeben would have more wiggle room to be wrong and look like he was right, but now he's panicking.
  2. Vergeben is actually right and just isn't sure how to deal with the Box Theory. DLC seems like an easy answer, and if he knows that we'll get some form of it, it's an easy guess to hide the SE rep. However, what if the the SE rep for some reason isn't allowed to be on the box and comes with the base game? My personal theory (which is probably wrong) is that it's Sora (dream character, I know), but Disney wouldn't allow Sora to be used to market the game by appearing on the boxart. Maybe it is Geno, though I can't see why SE would allow Cloud on the boxart and not Geno. Heck, Cloud is missing from the picture that we see, so maybe he's not allowed on the box either and we're actually getting another Echo that we haven't heard of and both Cloud and the new SE rep are in the game.
 

Homelessvagrant

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Or...

3. The Box theory is not gospel and is in fact a theory.


Like Nonno Umby stated earlier, there is way more evidence pointing to Elma being in the game then there is evidence towards the box theory. I would even argue there is more evidence pointing to Geno's inclusion then there is pointing to the box theory. The Box theory is just one article of potential evidence with as of now no supporting evidence pointing towards it. You could weasel Vergeben into the box theory but it is less of supporting evidence and more creative problem solving.
 

EricTheGamerman

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Honestly, I've been thinking the same for a week or two.
Concerning Elma, they are a lot of people (not everyone outside of this thread fortunately) who discount immediately Elma because 'it doesn't sell well on wii u" and she is not that popular.
But Smash isn't a popularity contest, but a museum of Nintendo's history in video game. And she has a claim in this considering Xeno X was one of the biggest game on wii U, and the fact that XenoX developers helped making BotW and other games too. I think that Elma beeing in smash is a thank you from Nintendo, for all their works.

As for speculations, this time they are so lame.... Everyone is saying the same bandwagon characters. You take any newcomers wishlist or speculation list and 90% of this list are the same everywhere. And the characters are "wanted" just to jump on the hype train, like with Simon that everyone wanted in after the vergeben leak and skullkid more recently.
There is nothing wrong with jumping on the hype train or seeing the value in particularly popular characters. It may seem false and a little boring, but with a lot of characters I think people see the fan base and want to see them happy. Especially with the longer requested choices of Isaac and Geno for example. We also just need to rally behind characters as we have fewer clear options.

What is more troublesome is treating predictions with rigidity only for those characters and also the way people seem to misunderstand that characters you want are not necessarily the characters with the best chance of getting in.
 

Fire Tactician

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Or...

3. The Box theory is not gospel and is in fact a theory.


Like Nonno Umby stated earlier, there is way more evidence pointing to Elma being in the game then there is evidence towards the box theory. I would even argue there is more evidence pointing to Geno's inclusion then there is pointing to the box theory. The Box theory is just one article of potential evidence with as of now no supporting evidence pointing towards it. You could weasel Vergeben into the box theory but it is less of supporting evidence and more creative problem solving.
Oh yeah, totally agreed- I was just responding to try and fit the two together and maybe explain some rationale. I'm personally skeptical of the Box Theory because the character ordering is a little bizarre and could easily be changed, but who knows?
 

Calamitas

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Or...

3. The Box theory is not gospel and is in fact a theory.


Like Nonno Umby stated earlier, there is way more evidence pointing to Elma being in the game then there is evidence towards the box theory. I would even argue there is more evidence pointing to Geno's inclusion then there is pointing to the box theory. The Box theory is just one article of potential evidence with as of now no supporting evidence pointing towards it. You could weasel Vergeben into the box theory but it is less of supporting evidence and more creative problem solving.
Agreed on that. Theories like these, which are attempting to make definitive statements like that just seem very unlikely to me. Stuff like Smash blog updates and music posts work better, since they're more about trying to learn things from patterns.
 

Homelessvagrant

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Oh yeah, totally agreed- I was just responding to try and fit the two together and maybe explain some rationale. I'm personally skeptical of the Box Theory because the character ordering is a little bizarre and could easily be changed, but who knows?
Yeah that's what gets me, why have rows of six but separate character groups by rows of nine? It just seems like an odd design decision. Now I know personally if I was working on a box mockup, if I had to remove info I would just take the elements I have and enlarge them and reorganize them to fill in the space. That is to say if they were originally smaller rectangles that made rows of nine, I would take the easiest route to redistribute the icons. I mean the theory could be true, I won't deny it (as could the chair theory, music theory, etc.) but there is nothing to directly pointing to it as an undisputed truth.

Just a curious point, of all the silly thing people latch onto, why does no one talk about the model gun that Sakurai bought? I mean we know it was bought while working on Smash Ultimate and that he used it as a reference for something in the game. These are indisputable facts. And yet there is little to no speculation regarding it outside this thread. I know that we all assume its for Elma, but what does the average Smash fan who assumes the roster consists of no additions other than Skull Kid, Incineroar, and Ken think its for?
 

Fire Tactician

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I'm really not sure, though I had a thought about it the other day when watching the trailer for Daemon X Machina- maybe he was consulted at some point for it? I mean, he was given Kid Icarus to go wild with, so maybe he was someone Nintendo considered for the project before deciding against it? It think using it for Elma's guns or potentially part of their Skell/Artifice model is more likely. Maybe they considered giving Snake a gun before scrapping it?

That said, yeah, I don't get why it's forgotten all the time- it's seemingly big. Maybe it was used for some unseen assist trophy, but maybe not. I wonder if people are completely oblivious to it due to it coming before speculation really kicked off.
 

Alpswat

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What happened to the Discord?

PD: I still didn't lose hope, even if Elma is not on the base roster, there's always chances for an asked character like Elma. If there's a new ballot wouldn't surprise me to see Elma again. I see more and more people btw.,
 

Fire Tactician

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I don't know... I feel like a ballot would give her problems. She's popular, but not popular enough to beat out certain other characters on popularity alone. I'm pretty confident that she's lose handily to Rex, Pyra, and Mythra (I have no idea how people would vote), while she'd struggle against the likes of Malos and maybe even Jin. I don't know... I think that this is her only shot... it's why more FF fans are requesting Noctis and not Lightning or Tidus or how people are predicting a Gen VII Pokemon rather than a Gen V one...
 
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Nonno Umby

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Yeah that's what gets me, why have rows of six but separate character groups by rows of nine? It just seems like an odd design decision. Now I know personally if I was working on a box mockup, if I had to remove info I would just take the elements I have and enlarge them and reorganize them to fill in the space. That is to say if they were originally smaller rectangles that made rows of nine, I would take the easiest route to redistribute the icons. I mean the theory could be true, I won't deny it (as could the chair theory, music theory, etc.) but there is nothing to directly pointing to it as an undisputed truth.

Just a curious point, of all the silly thing people latch onto, why does no one talk about the model gun that Sakurai bought? I mean we know it was bought while working on Smash Ultimate and that he used it as a reference for something in the game. These are indisputable facts. And yet there is little to no speculation regarding it outside this thread. I know that we all assume its for Elma, but what does the average Smash fan who assumes the roster consists of no additions other than Skull Kid, Incineroar, and Ken think its for?
My biggest counterpoint, for which I have yet to see any real response since even the most vehement supporters ignores it is "if there were still 5/6 characters left instead of 2, would they really have left 5/6 empty slots on that placeholder boxart that was meant to be shown between the Smash Direct and the September Direct, well before the final roster was unveiled, since it lacks Isabelle?".

Going back to Verge he himself stated that the Square Enix character comes from a source he trusts, but he is now digging more about this box thing which most likely will be just another dumb theory were people tried to guess a number by looking at materials that in the end didn't mattered. Verge is trying his best to be sure about what he leaks since if he succeds in this then very few will still call him a fraud like many did.
If the roster really ends with Ken and Inceneroar, he has to change his stance on the Sqiare Enix character before it is too late or otherwise he will lost all his credibility. Even if he himself thinks it is wrong, he has to be sure of every single thing for his future as a leaker.

(also a little OT but what's up with the hate for Vergeben in the general tread? My goodness some people seems to despise the guy to an atrocius level, calling him an unpleasent human being because he dared responding to the 1001th user who blatantly insulted him. Also they call him arrogant, but they have ever seen Liam Robertson and Laura Kate Dale? The first just used an edited leaked picture of Mario+Rabbids and when it was revealed he just went "I had this for a month and none of you noticed lol, I'm such a genius XD" and the later expected to be PRAISED by the community when she spoiled the big surprise of the long awaited January Direct, Dark Souls, just a couple hours it actually aired! Vergeben might be as bad as it might get, but TBH I didn't really see this demon in his messages)


But yeah, Elma still has a very strong chance of making in it. I should probably compile a huge list of every hint she has and maybe spread it online in order to see the response...might be interesting, and at least spice things up for the final months of speculation.
 
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ShadowGuy1

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Elma is among my top 2 most wanted characters this game, so I really hope she gets in! Supporter for sure!


EDIT: Also, Nonno, you should compile a list. Would be a very useful thing for us Elma supporters to show to people.
 
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Luviant X

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My biggest counterpoint, for which I have yet to see any real response since even the most vehement supporters ignores it is "if there were still 5/6 characters left instead of 2, would they really have left 5/6 empty slots on that placeholder boxart that was meant to be shown between the Smash Direct and the September Direct, well before the final roster was unveiled, since it lacks Isabelle?".

Going back to Verge he himself stated that the Square Enix character comes from a source he trusts, but he is now digging more about this box thing which most likely will be just another dumb theory were people tried to guess a number by looking at materials that in the end didn't mattered. Verge is trying his best to be sure about what he leaks since if he succeds in this then very few will still call him a fraud like many did.
If the roster really ends with Ken and Inceneroar, he has to change his stance on the Sqiare Enix character before it is too late or otherwise he will lost all his credibility. Even if he himself thinks it is wrong, he has to be sure of every single thing for his future as a leaker.

(also a little OT but what's up with the hate for Vergeben in the general tread? My goodness some people seems to despise the guy to an atrocius level, calling him an unpleasent human being because he dared responding to the 1001th user who blatantly insulted him. Also they call him arrogant, but they have ever seen Liam Robertson and Laura Kate Dale? The first just used an edited leaked picture of Mario+Rabbids and when it was revealed he just went "I had this for a month and none of you noticed lol, I'm such a genius XD" and the later expected to be PRAISED by the community when she spoiled the big surprise of the long awaited January Direct, Dark Souls, just a couple hours it actually aired! Vergeben might be as bad as it might get, but TBH I didn't really see this demon in his messages)


But yeah, Elma still has a very strong chance of making in it. I should probably compile a huge list of every hint she has and maybe spread it online in order to see the response...might be interesting, and at least spice things up for the final months of speculation.
People hate Verge because they're afraid of their favorite character not being in, even though believing his leaks doesn't necessary mean your favorite character won't be in since he has said himself that he doesn't know how many characters will be in the game.

Using this just as an example, I'm sure Skull Kid fans would love him if he suddenly leaked Skull Kid. But since he hasn't, there are those who are afraid of him being right and want to burn him at the stake and accuse him of being fake.
 

Fire Tactician

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Agreed with the list thing. I pick up a few things here and there, but I had no idea about the music hint until just today.
 

Condenir

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Also just curious to hear your guys’ thoughts on Elma being an assist trophy...if she’s not playable I think she would be a pretty cool assist. But apart of me also feels like we would’ve seen her as an assist already? That’s why a part of me is hesitant about this box theory...it seems like there are a ton of major characters that would seemingly just be left out with a role in smash if they aren’t playable or an assist(which I’m assuming most big assists have been shown...but also assuming makes an a** out of u and me;) )

It would just be weird having characters like Dixie, shadow, skull kid(probably boss) Elma and Shantae not have any major role in this smash...
 

lizard1929

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Also just curious to hear your guys’ thoughts on Elma being an assist trophy...if she’s not playable I think she would be a pretty cool assist. But apart of me also feels like we would’ve seen her as an assist already? That’s why a part of me is hesitant about this box theory...it seems like there are a ton of major characters that would seemingly just be left out with a role in smash if they aren’t playable or an assist(which I’m assuming most big assists have been shown...but also assuming makes an a** out of u and me;) )

It would just be weird having characters like Dixie, shadow, skull kid(probably boss) Elma and Shantae not have any major role in this smash...
I would only accept assist trophies if we could select which characters would come out before the start of a match.
The assist trophy is just as crowded as the main roster but is always on random which hurts it a little bit.
 

ColtonS25

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I've seen so many people say that the music theory must have some weight if we get AC music this week. I just know that people are going to be walking back those statements if it doesn't line up with their wanted newcomer.

It's Elma's time. It's got to be.
 

aarchak

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I'd like you to look at this, the list of series and characters listed in the Super Smash Blog.

The only series absent from this are Game & Watch, Wii Fit, Punch Out (all of which we can safely say won't be getting newcomers), Final Fantasy, and Xenoblade.

I personally don't trust Verge, but he said that we would be getting a new Square rep, and there is nothing on the blog on Final Fantasy.
But more importantly, there is NOTHING on Xenoblade. Nothing, no music, no blog posts, nothing at all. It's really weird, especially when basically every other series has been covered by now. and by every series, I mean EVERY SERIES except the 5 I mentioned above. I'm fairly sure it means something. Seriously, it's incredibly weird. You'd think Xenoblade is big enough to warrant at at least an Assist Trophy, but no. Nothing.

EDIT: I'd also like to mention that even ICE CLIMBER is a series on the site.
 
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D

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I already believed the music theory but the fact that the blog specifically pushed back AC music to still tie in to Isabelle's reveal pretty much confirms it in my eyes. I think this is really good for Elma, especially because of Sawano's project + the lack of any Xenoblade content on the blog.
 

IronWarrior94

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You'd think Xenoblade is big enough to warrant at at least an Assist Trophy, but no. Nothing.
Given how a big chunk of Xenoblade's popularity is in its music, you'd also think a music track would've been posted earlier.
 
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Homelessvagrant

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meh, I'm not banking on the music theory. It is definitely interesting and a slight plus to Elma, but I don't think it alone defines Elma's chances. I don't know, I've just never been one for theories.
 

MoonlitIllusion

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meh, I'm not banking on the music theory. It is definitely interesting and a slight plus to Elma, but I don't think it alone defines Elma's chances. I don't know, I've just never been one for theories.
It alone doesn't but the general lack of Xenoblade content is a major red flag, no music, no new assists, shulk's trailer has yet to be a blog post, the whole thing is sort of fishy.
 

Homelessvagrant

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Oh I agree, but I don't trust blog patterns. I've been burned in the brawl speculation days by this, and I've seen speculators get burned by patterns in the smash 4 days. It's cool to use it as a slight supporting piece of evidence, but if say Xenoblade info gets revealed tomorrow I wouldn't lose heart.
 

harukaamami

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I personally trust the music theory. They haven't repeated franchises when uploading songs and every unique newcomer has gotten a song uploaded to the blog almost right after they were revealed. In my opinion, Elma's odds as a newcomer are better than pretty much anyone other than "a Pokemon" or "a third party character".
 
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ThoughtfulWanderer

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Oh I agree, but I don't trust blog patterns. I've been burned in the brawl speculation days by this, and I've seen speculators get burned by patterns in the smash 4 days. It's cool to use it as a slight supporting piece of evidence, but if say Xenoblade info gets revealed tomorrow I wouldn't lose heart.
I can't place 100% trust in patterns either because well... they're patterns. Patterns can easily change and a pattern is what's fueling that insufferable box. Plus, there's question over whether or not it'd disconfirm Geno (I don't think it would because they consider Mario to have more than one franchise in Smash and since Geno would come from one specific game, they'd probably make an exception).

At the same time, it's remained remarkably consistent and they definitely would want to see diversity of music origin on the blog. If they're going to do that and still tie in music to reveals, they would inevitably have to give a little insight into the newcomers. Absence of Pokemon music and the timing of the AC music are probably the biggest indicators of the theory's accuracy.

Also, the composers tie into this since a different composer is given acknowledgement alongside these music reveals. I think this in particular helps Elma and Isaac out a lot since Sawano and Sakuraba still have not received a composition of theirs on the blog.

Not a foolproof theory by any means but it certainly should be kept on notice as something that grows more credible each and every week.
 

harukaamami

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I can't place 100% trust in patterns either because well... they're patterns. Patterns can easily change and a pattern is what's fueling that insufferable box. Plus, there's question over whether or not it'd disconfirm Geno (I don't think it would because they consider Mario to have more than one franchise in Smash and since Geno would come from one specific game, they'd probably make an exception).

At the same time, it's remained remarkably consistent and they definitely would want to see diversity of music origin on the blog. If they're going to do that and still tie in music to reveals, they would inevitably have to give a little insight into the newcomers. Absence of Pokemon music and the timing of the AC music are probably the biggest indicators of the theory's accuracy.

Also, the composers tie into this since a different composer is given acknowledgement alongside these music reveals. I think this in particular helps Elma and Isaac out a lot since Sawano and Sakuraba still have not received a composition of theirs on the blog.

Not a foolproof theory by any means but it certainly should be kept on notice as something that grows more credible each and every week.
The music theory doesn't help Isaac at all because Golden Sun could easily just not receive a remix; after all, it has no stages or newcomers on the game. A Pokemon and Elma are different because they can actually be deconfirmed, so each week that passes without Pokemon or Xenoblade getting a song increases their chances. The same can't be said about Golden Sun.
 
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ThoughtfulWanderer

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The music theory doesn't help Isaac at all because Golden Sun could easily just not receive a remix; after all, it has no stages or newcomers on the game. A Pokemon and Elma are different because they can actually be deconfirmed, so each week that passes without Pokemon or Xenoblade getting a song increases their chances. The same can't be said about Golden Sun.
I'm saying that the blog still hasn't uploaded a remix composed by Motoi Sakuraba (not just Golden Sun, but any track he's done for Ultimate). That's the same thing that we point out for Hiroyuki Sawano, is it not? We know both were called on for Ultimate, so there is at least one remix that could be credited to them.

All I'm saying is that the longer we go on without them being acknowledged, the more plausible it is that they're being saved for something related to Golden Sun and Xenoblade X since Sakuraba and Sawano originally composed for those games way back when. Otherwise, it's easy enough to just upload some other remix of theirs since I'm sure they were called on for work on a song of more than one franchise.
 

Staarih

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The only series absent from this are Game & Watch, Wii Fit, Punch Out (all of which we can safely say won't be getting newcomers), Final Fantasy, and Xenoblade.

I personally don't trust Verge, but he said that we would be getting a new Square rep, and there is nothing on the blog on Final Fantasy.
But more importantly, there is NOTHING on Xenoblade. Nothing, no music, no blog posts, nothing at all. It's really weird, especially when basically every other series has been covered by now. and by every series, I mean EVERY SERIES except the 5 I mentioned above. I'm fairly sure it means something. Seriously, it's incredibly weird. You'd think Xenoblade is big enough to warrant at at least an Assist Trophy, but no. Nothing.

EDIT: I'd also like to mention that even ICE CLIMBER is a series on the site.
I wouldn't trust blog patterns - they have yet to show the existing fighters of those series, so they'll just add them to the list once they show them. Like, Xenoblade will likely be added to the list once Shulk is featured on the blog, or Gaur Plains. Or Final Fantasy will be added once they feature Cloud etc.

...but maybe the "music theory" has something going on, I'm curious about it. I'm personally thinking they might be saving a new Xenoblade remix for after a newcomer reveal.
 
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Danpal65

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And don’t forget that mech figure Sakurai bought for the game. I still haven’t seen a reasonable way to explain that bit of information away yet.
 

ThoughtfulWanderer

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And don’t forget that mech figure Sakurai bought for the game. I still haven’t seen a reasonable way to explain that bit of information away yet.
I've heard two theories aside from Elma: one where the Splat Charger was originally planned to be included Inkling's moveset but it never went through, and another where it could be for an item like the new Kid Icarus Staff.

The latter of which I don't see why he'd bother buying a reference toy for. He's stated that a moveset for a character "has to dance" for him, so he's saying he wants to get a feel for how the moveset would work and flow in Smash. That's exactly the kind of reason why he'd buy a real-life toy to experiment with, as a tool to help him visualize an idea. I don't think he'd throw some money towards a simple item.
 

The_Intruder

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I've heard two theories aside from Elma: one where the Splat Charger was originally planned to be included Inkling's moveset but it never went through, and another where it could be for an item like the new Kid Icarus Staff.

The latter of which I don't see why he'd bother buying a reference toy for. He's stated that a moveset for a character "has to dance" for him, so he's saying he wants to get a feel for how the moveset would work and flow in Smash. That's exactly the kind of reason why he'd buy a real-life toy to experiment with, as a tool to help him visualize an idea. I don't think he'd throw some money towards a simple item.
The thing is the weapon of this toy is really close to the one of the elma's doll (length and shape), it's difficult to replicate a weapon from just one face(the official artwork from Xenoblade X) for a 3d model , so if sakurai and his team wanted to create the same gun as the elma's doll in 3D they need to see it with all angles. That's why it makes sens to buy a figure for that.
 
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Nonno Umby

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I've heard two theories aside from Elma: one where the Splat Charger was originally planned to be included Inkling's moveset but it never went through, and another where it could be for an item like the new Kid Icarus Staff.

The latter of which I don't see why he'd bother buying a reference toy for. He's stated that a moveset for a character "has to dance" for him, so he's saying he wants to get a feel for how the moveset would work and flow in Smash. That's exactly the kind of reason why he'd buy a real-life toy to experiment with, as a tool to help him visualize an idea. I don't think he'd throw some money towards a simple item.
The thing with the figure is that Sakurai uses them to test proportions and animations.
Here is how he used them in Brawl
GDC-Scan-03.png

747.png

Now let's take a lok at the figure and its gun:
robot_damashii_vifam.jpg

It's clearly a rifle, not a normak gun since it is longer, and not a sniper rifle since it isn't used on the shoulder. So that should exclude the theiry about the Splat Charger, since not only it looks different, but this figure gun can't be held as the Splat Charger, making it useless as a reference for animations
Inkling_using_a_Splat_Charger_-_Splatoon.png

Also if he needed this kind of rifle he would have bought a completely different figures since there are several with this kind of rifles, like this one
download.jpeg

And for the staff, not only that figure isn't a functionak reference since it is too short, but Sakurai coukd easely re-use the same figure he used when designing the staff in Uprising or Dark's Pit Final Smash, also he posted a couple years back Dark's Pit figma, which comes with his staff as an accessory, so he woukdn't need to buy a separate figure just for that.

But if we look at that rifle, it is longer than a regular gun but shorter than a sniper rifle or Kid Icarus's staff. Also since he needed just the gun it's not out of the realm of possibilities that he needed a 2nd rifle like that to study the mivements, animations and taunts of a character who wields 2 longer than usual guns similar to that one. Who does that remind you off?
87f3296e7e59c7701e4520f469060bba.png
[/spoiler][/spoiler]
 
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