China - 2nd Biggest World Economy

[TheMike]

Source
Two interesting quotes:

China has overtaken Japan to become the world's second-largest economy, the fruit of three decades of rapid growth that has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.

Depending on how fast its exchange rate rises, China is on course to overtake the United States and vault into the No.1 spot sometime around 2025, according to projections by the World Bank, Goldman Sachs and others.

Will China overtake the USA? Discuss.

 

[Jam Stunna]

I heard it put this way: In the long run, we don't really have to worry about China, because it may have the 2nd largest economy in the world, but unlike the United States and Japan, it also has a billion people in desperate poverty.

 

[TheMike]

As the article says, millions of people were lifted out of poverty in three decades, thus meaning they are capable of equaling the United States and Japan in terms of poverty, in my opinion.

 

[Jam Stunna]

Millions is still waaaaaaaaaay short of one billion

 

[TheMike]

Millions is still waaaaaaaaaay short of one billion

Really one billion? According to this article(which isn't outdated), over 150 million people have a daily income less than $1(less than $1,25 is considered poverty).

 

[CRASHiC]

One overpowering another isn't nearly as important in today's world. We are all so interconnected financially except for the most remote and undeveloped of nations that we all depend upon each other in some way. Global economy has made top dog a rather irrelevant point to some degree.

 

[Pierre the Scarecrow]

Though China has less debt than the US.

US External Debt: 56,900,000,000,000 USD
Chinese External Debt: 347,100,000,000 USD

US Public Debt: 52.90% GDP
Chinese Public Debt: 16.90% GDP


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt

 

[KrazyGlue]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

Granted, this is based off of 2009 estimates, so it is slightly outdated and still shows China slightly behind Japan. But look at the gap between the US and Japan/China; the US has nearly triple the GDP of China or Japan. Who knows whether China will eventually pass the US, but it won't be soon.

(Also, I thought it was funny when I saw the US's economy is almost as big as the entire EU.)

 

[Bob Jane T-Mart]

I have the point of view that if everything goes smoothly, China will overtake the USA. However not everything will go smoothly; we have issues like peak oil and climate change to worry about, and they will put a limit on Chinese economic growth. So, I don't believe it's particularly likely.

 

[SuperBowser]

I think it's inevitable.

Both China and India are going to play much larger roles in global economy over the next 50 years, whether or not they take over America. These are not 3rd world countries anymore; they are developing countries and they are developing very quickly. I think it would be more interesting to discuss the impact this will have. Even if China does not overtake America by 2025, they will not be far off - this is what actually matters.

It's a little like console wars. It didn't matter that XBOX LTD sales beat Gamecube's worldwide by a few millions units. Both sold a pitiable amount and this imaginary third and second place didn't mean a thing in real terms.