Hello, going to be a long first post but I had to just make an account to I guess make the case for why I think Banjo-Kazooie is not a certainty, but a likely newcomer (For the record Geno fans overestimate their chances, they're in the same licensing red tape boat). I've just about seen and heard every argument for and against BK and I wouldn't even be posting about it, let alone looking at Smash Boards if there wasn't at least a chance. For the first time in well over a decade, there is.
Its probably best start at the beginning, when Melee was in development and due to the high popularity of Banjo-Kazooie,
both in the West & Japan, Sakurai did consider them in Smash 64 but left it until Melee to add them unfortunately this was cut due to as Sakurai says 'adult issues' meaning the legal kind, soon after was the Microsoft buyout of Rare and the rest is history from that point. First point being, if Sakurai is going back and bringing all the things he possibly could from past cut games, namely Banjo-Kazooie and Geno from Brawls development, these are the most notable exclusions from the series. Sakurai's interest may have changed in those years, so who knows maybe he feels differently about the bear and bird. But theres evidence of personal interest on his part.
Throughout Smash's history the same names have always been requested, and
Banjo-Kazooie easily sits in the top 5-10 on any poll period, (
and theres about 5 other polls from different times betweeen 2015-2018 I can show) difference being between Brawl end of Smash 4, Banjo-Kazooie fans were quietly hoping something could even so much as hint that they could be in the game, but under a seemingly impossible Microsoft banner, it would be impossible.
Flash forward to post Smash 4 for the first time ever
Phil Spencer tweets in 2015 about his enthusiasm for getting Banjo into Smash 4's DLC and I believe before Ultimates roster was finalised. What does he mean by the ease of licensing the Rare IP? Well you have the notorious DK64 to Virtual Console which contained a full game of Jetpac inside the game which was a big licensing deal at the time, then you've got Diddy Kong Racing DS port, and the GBA Banjo-Kazooie games (Banjo Pilot & Gruntildas Revenge). People perceive Microsoft as a staunchly fierce competitor-- (
hardly these days as Nintendo is fully handheld & Microsoft is merging the console with the PC market)-- who would be even more difficult than Square-Enix to deal with. A decade long history tells otherwise, especially with the Rare IPs, Microsoft is fully aware with how little they use them and have no issue with licensing them out for what I can only imagine are small fees considering their worth. This is not on the same level as licensing out Pac-Man or Cloud, or Ryu or any other big relevant franchises.
On the topic of relevancy, it doesn't matter. People use this argument all the time and it drives me nuts, a good portion of Smashs roster hasn't had games in decades, and K.Rool is the latest example, he's never shown up in anything DK related for 10 years, but I digress.
People seem to claim that 'suits would get in the way of any deal', not so much on Microsofts end. Phil Spencer is head of the gaming division, there's nobody high up who can stop that call from him. It would all come down to Nintendos call at that point and working out an agreement, which as previously stated shouldn't be a problem considering the history of past deals. How would such a deal work with Microsoft? I have a theory; Microsoft needs to build trust back in their Rare IPs, they've been squandering them for 10+ years and nothings been done about it, enter Phil Spencer, he's been highly interested in engaging with Microsofts exclusives upon his promotion and in that time we've seen the Rare Replay, Killer Instinct, a Battletoads reboot announced this year, and a host of merchandise and collectables lined up for Banjo-Kazooie's 20th anniversary (Contrast to the 15th anniversary where they did nothing). Its also worth noting they've gone back from the Nuts & Bolts designs to the classic designs.
Steps are in place to regain trust back into old fans, but what about new fans? Enter the Smash deal. The BK license is arguably at its lowest worth since 2008, Microsoft approaches Nintendo looking for both representation for their IP, gaining good will and getting a free advertisement/celebration of Banjo on Nintendos behalf, thus springboarding off this and gaining the trust of old fans and gaining new fans. Smash is notorious for exposing franchises to people who missed out on their games, Fire Emblem wouldn't be as popular in the west if it weren't for Smashs exposure.
Which is why I think, if Phil's a smart man, and to be in his position you'd have to be,
he's been planning this maybe even before 2015 but certainly since then. The relationship between MS & Nintendo, the anniversary, the merchandise, the reverting to old designs, its all coordinated to me, in the hopes that Phil can garner a deal to revive a dead IP by licensing it out to Smash for virtually peanuts, costing Nintendo little, generating massive Smash hype and both companies come out looking good in the eyes of fans with potentially a new market created via the exposure for old fans and new for Microsoft to MAYBE make a new game out of.
And how about that Minecraft crossplay? The latest in the new deal between the companies has seen MS shares its famous properties with Minecraft skins, including Banjo-Kazooie. And with the DasVergeben original leak claiming SOME form of Minecraft rep is in Smash, that bolsters the chances of BK being in the base game tenfold, and enforces my theory that Phil's been planning this for a few years. I imagine part of the deal being that Microsoft would happily give Nintendo the BK license for cheap, if Minecraft is somehow included to generate interest for younger fans. Nintendo wouldn't be opposed to this, Minecraft is a core to the Switch library. Now somewhere in these talks I imagine would be discussions of the N64 mini which we've heard nothing about, a good chunk of the best selling library are Rare games and this would probably where the discussions get murky but it brings Nintendo to the table to make a deal with MS in the first place and Nintendo needs it more than MS does, so the Smash deal and the N64 mini deal are deals that go both ways in favour of both companies.
"but what about the 2018 tweet, doesn't that violate NDA!?" - no, not at all. Phil cherry picked this question to that image to give his answer which confirms or denies nothing, it is simply to the question "is he still
willing?" Being under an NDA myself, this violates nothing, its not a clear cut question or an answer. Phil's a smart guy, he gets asked this question everyday. I'm sure he picks the questions he answers carefully for such a delicate matter as Smash.
At the end of the day is it a 50/50? Yes. But its more likely than it ever was before, and that puts them in the running just as equally as Geno in my mind or any other third party character. It's Nintendos call, and if they came to the table as early as 2015. My hunch says maybe.
Anyway sorry for the long post, I had to get this out of my system because I feel, personally, after waiting 10 plus years and nothing happening, that this is the best chance they've had ever. I'm 100% positive they'd be DLC, but the base game is where I fall back to 50/50.
