BluePikmin11
Akko is my dear daughter!
Boy, that Smash Ultimate reveal way back in Nintendo's E3 2018 Direct had a massive bombshell of new information. I expected no cuts from Smash 4, but I did not expect Sakurai to bring back EVERYONE from Smash history back for this game. I had my forms of excitement with the veterans and a couple of disappointing losses in predictions such as Tom Nook and Takamaru. But ever since the speculation game had changed with Smash Ultimate's roster direction, there was this burning urge inside me that wanted to figure out the newcomers Sakurai would add in this game. I have created yet another prediction roster that reflects the possible new direction for newcomers, with me predicting that ballot candidates will take a larger portion of the newcomer selection.
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-84 Characters total. (78 if you exclude Echo Fighters)
-15 unique newcomers. 4 new echo fighters.
Other Notes:
-I am predicting a Hanafuda character in general, not specifically Daitouryou.
-I am predicting Lycanroc in general, not any specific form of Lycanroc.
For me personally, I do not believe Sakurai's statement on not expecting too many newcomers means much. Despite what Sakurai has said about roster size and increasing characters being an issue in Smash 4, he still manages to surpass expectations. In Smash 4's base game alone, he managed to develop and finish 17 newcomers in time. And with Smash Ultimate's roster surpassing our expectations with every veteran returning, I would not be shocked if the amount of newcomers we get surpasses expectations as well, despite the roster being so large already.
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Choosing Geno as a prediction was not an easy decision. I grew up playing Super Mario RPG on the Wii Virtual Console loving every second of the experience. I thought Geno was a very cool character back then and wanted him in Smash 4. That never happened. But, I was super astonished when Geno had his own Mii costume for Smash 4 DLC. I looked into the interview of Sakurai mentioning the story behind the Mii costume with him stating:
"Geno:
—What led you to decide to make a Geno costume after all this time?
Sakurai: To tell the truth, it’s because I wanted Geno to be a playable character. He has a gun for a hand, and I think he fits in really well with Smash. During Brawl, I thought it would be great if I could add him, but in the end it didn’t become a reality."
I interpreted that comment as Square Enix being stingy about their properties. I thought he was not included because he was just a character from a one-off SNES game and never thought much about it since, slowly drifting away my hope for the puppet as time went on, never seriously considering him when it came to Smash Ultimate newcomer speculation. But, then I thought about critically. I thought about Vergeben's rumor of Simon Belmont and Ridley being in Smash as his info quickly became more legitimate at E3. What these two choices hold in common was that they were generally perceived as impossible due to many reasons such as Konami being a bad company, the harsh treatment of Kojima, and Sakurai stating two times in Brawl/Smash 4 that Ridley would be impossible.
Thinking hypothetically, if Sakurai went that far to implement these characters in Smash Ultimate, despite the very difficult obstacles, I personally believe Sakurai would go beyond the line and negotiate Geno from Square Enix yet again. What I theorize about Smash 4 DLC was that the production for it had a lower budget. The evidence pointing to this is Sakurai stating that they had a smaller team working on the DLC, noting that there were a smaller selection of songs to choose from (pointing out the Midgar FF7 stage having only two non-remixed songs), and Sakurai choosing to add the "most realizable and negotiable character" (Bayonetta) when it came to the Smash 4 ballot. I feel these budget constraints prevented Sakurai from negotiating beyond Cloud Strife for Smash 4 DLC, with the only affordable option left being to add Geno as a Mii costume.
Normally, I would say that Geno being a one-shot character and Square Enix being strict would damage his chance to be in Smash. But, I do not believe this to be an actual problem for Sakurai. He wanted Geno badly back in Brawl and Smash 4 because of his move-set potential, setting aside the fact that his appearance was one-time, being willing enough to get Geno as one of the only notable Mii costumes for Smash 4 DLC done for the fans. Considering that SMRPG was one of Square's biggest successes in history (with SMRPG selling as massively as the huge Tomb Raider/Final Fantasy games), I feel the company would be fine with the idea of SMRPG being represented in Smash. The belief that Square Enix would strike against the idea of Geno being playable is a huge overstatement.
Square would be willing to make business to make Geno in Smash a reality, if the budget for negotiating characters for Smash Ultimate allows it. With the opportunity being possible thanks to Smash Ultimate likely being a higher budget game, this would finally have Sakurai realize Geno for Smash. The 13 year-long journey of Sakurai wanting Geno as a playable fighter would close in pure satisfaction for him and the immense number of hardcore Geno supporters. With Sakurai focusing more on popular newcomers this time around with a somewhat tighter newcomer pool, I am banking that he will make Geno a playable character, making a dream finally come true.
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I have never seriously considered K. Rool to be a notable contender. I originally thought Dixie Kong had the best chance as the DKC newcomer, even though I felt her chances were very small at best because of Sakurai originally not planning clones in the beginning for Smash 4’s roster. I did play through the Rare SNES Trilogy for the first time to get an appreciation of the character and his insane personality, but I have remained in a skeptical mindset, up until the Smash Ultimate reveal. This was when my approach to Smash speculation had changed. King K. Rool has been wandering in my mind since then.
Previously, I tried digger deeper beyond the basic character criteria, looking into Sakurai interviews and other resources related to DKC that could possibly benefit K. Rool’s inclusion. I tried researching the reasons Diddy Kong was included in Brawl, and found nothing. I tried researching about K. Rool and Dixie’s creator, Steve Mayles, to see if he was involved in helping out with Brawl’s planning phase, with Dixie being originally a part of Diddy via tag-team in Brawl. I found nothing but Steve encouraging and wanting his characters to be in Smash, likely having little involvement in Ultimate due to his role in Playtonic Games, working on Yooka Laylee at the time. I tried to find other Nintendo staff members that would have helped realize Diddy’s Brawl moveset by looking into the new DK IP team mentioned in a Gamexplain Rabbids DLC interview, Paon (Developers responsible for the DKC games after Rare), and Miyamoto (Who had the closest involvement during the production of the Rare DKC trilogy). I still have found nothing concrete, researching a second time for several hours.
The only things I found that could possibly help K. Rool is the mysterious Mii costume that was added via Smash 4 DLC and that this Smash will likely focus on including popular ballot newcomers. The reasons the costume was included is unknown and was never clarified by Sakurai, unlike Geno. But, the level of detail given to the K. Rool costume to match Rare’s redesign is a bit eyebrow raising. The only thing I can confidently say really helps K. Rool is the immense ballot demand. Whether or not this demand is enough to overshadow the big negative of not playing a major role in the new mainline Donkey Kong Country titles has yet to be seen.
But, given that Sakurai seriously considered Geno for Brawl and Smash 4, despite being from a very old title, he might see K. Rool’s high ballot demand to be enough to think critically about his inclusion. The moveset potential and unique characteristics K. Rool could also help Sakurai view him as a stand-out character, being a heavyweight with an crazy cruel personality that would utilize many projectile weapons like the boomerang crown and blunderbuss for a distinct ranged play-style. With K. Rool being a character that would also attract a large Western audience like Ridley, I believe these are the positives I feel could suffice Sakurai enough to include the character.
In my personal perspective, King K. Rool, while having a good shot because of high ballot demand, is a bit of a shot in the dark. I say this only because I know so little of how Sakurai approached Donkey Kong Country newcomers back in Brawl, with little resources about DKC to be able to have very firm confidence on his inclusion. I can only speculate that Diddy Kong was included in Brawl due to his high demand, but the reasons were not specified by Sakurai, unlike Pit and Meta Knight. Regardless of him being somewhat risky choice, I am willing to predict that King K. Rool will finally be playable in this new Smash. I hope if K. Rool is included, Sakurai will characterize his insanity to the full extent in every part of his moveset.
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If there is one single Nintendo title I never stop seeing constant references of, it would be The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask. I have seen Majora’s Mask through countdown gifs on the internet, references in cartoons, endless merchandise, fan-videos, and a number of other things that makes the game a seriously common presence in video game pop culture. Majora’s Mask is considered a classic by a large number of hardcore Zelda fans for its dark story, tone, and memorable characters. The game was so popular, a large number of fans created a campaign called Operation Moonfall to get a Majora’s Mask remake on the Nintendo 3DS after the release of Ocarina of Time 3D.
The game’s massive popularity explains why Skull Kid has been the most requested Zelda newcomer for a long period of time since Brawl. He was so popular at the time of Brawl that a number of mods and Smash fan renders were made for the character. At the time of Smash 4, he was the most voted newcomer in a VGTribune poll sent to Sakurai during the game’s project proposal. With Skull Kid maintaining his status as one of the most requested Smash newcomers of all time, it may finally be his time to get in as a playable character, with ballot popularity likely being a big factor for many inclusions in Smash Ultimate this time around.
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Although Skull Kid does not have many statements said by Sakurai that could point towards his inclusion, he does have a similar obstacle and many pros that parallel to Geno in some ways. One major positive aside from his popularity that he has is moveset potential. I personally feel Skull Kid's mischievous character being able to utilize his mask and ocarina for unleashing bizarre dark powers makes him unlike any other character currently in Smash Bros, which could make him an extremely enticing character to implement for Sakurai this time around. Even as non-Zelda fan that only played a bit of Majora's Mask on the Wii Virtual Console, I could easily see his distinct characteristics and the moveset potential he provides as a fighter.
The only question that remains is if Sakurai would see the long-time high popularity being sufficing enough to seriously consider Skull Kid for playability. I think Sakurai could change his mind on him this time around. I feel fan demand will help Sakurai view many newcomers from a different, open perspective and make exceptions for negatives like Geno’s one-time status, Ridley’s possibly difficult implementation in Smash, and K. Rool’s lack of a major role in recent Donkey Kong Country games. Skull Kid’s demand can easily have Sakurai forgive his negative having only one major role in one Zelda title. This is quite possibly the best time Skull Kid can get in Smash if ballot popularity is a major factor for a notable portion of the newcomer pool.
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For the longest time since the beginning of Smash Ultimate speculation, I have been skeptical of Bandanna Dee’s chances. But, after thinking about Dee critically from a different perspective, I finally see why fans have been confident with Bandanna Dee. Before looking into positives, we need to look at the history of new Kirby additions with earlier Smash games. For King Dedede, he was planned to be included in Smash 64, but was cut during development. For Meta-knight, his inclusion was considered in Melee, but was held off because he wanted put other Nintendo titles in the spotlight before his own franchise, despite the character being extremely popular in Japan. Sakurai’s hesitance on more Kirby newcomers remained until Brawl, where he finally added King Dedede and Meta-knight.
I feel Sakurai’s hesitance on his characters was the main reason Bandanna Dee was excluded from Smash 4’s roster. This was very understandable, given that Dee’s playable debut in Kirby: Return to Dreamland might have been seen as too pre-mature, lacking the substantial amount of importance needed to be considered a central Kirby character. But now, Bandanna Dee has been increasing in importance, with his playable role in Kirby: Rainbow Curse and a number of smaller roles in Triple Deluxe, Planet Robobot, and Battle Royale. With HAL Laboratory paying ample attention to the Kirby fanbase and giving Dee greater presence and marketing, there is a real chance that Sakurai could notice this push, giving HAL the opportunity to recommend Bandanna Dee while Sakurai works on Smash Ultimate’s project planning phase to heavily push for a playable Bandanna Dee.
With Bandanna Dee’s increasing importance, it resulted with an increasing Dee fanbase, which likely caused a high surge of votes for the character with the Smash 4 ballot. These two factors could finally lead Sakurai to seriously consider Bandanna Dee and let go of his Kirby character hesitance/modesty. Gameplay potential would not be a notable problem, as Dee’s utilization of spears alone is minimally distinct enough from the current Smash cast for Sakurai to find easy move-set inspiration. It could be argued that just utilizing spears lacks substance, but Sakurai can find inspiration in the minimum a character offers, as he only needs to look at one distinct, on-the-surface trait to find the potential like Little Mac’s single, unique trait of being a boxer and Ryu’s single, unique trait of utilizing fighting game mechanics for Smash gameplay.
There is a chance that Sakurai’s modesty on Kirby character representation could still remain or that he does not find Dee central to Kirby enough to exclude Dee from the roster, but at this point, that has a small chance of happening with the positives of his inclusion the spear-wielder currently has. I am banking Sakurai finally making Bandanna Dee a playable character after making sure of his massive popularity within the Kirby fanbase and his likely high number of votes with the Smash 4 Ballot. Dee has almost nothing preventing his inclusion now.
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I believe that Elma was highly considered as the promotional candidate for Smash 4 DLC. She already held great gameplay potential and her game came out around the time Sakurai was considering making a character from an already represented franchise that was getting a game around 2015. I feel it was a competition between Corrin and Elma, but with Corrin edging the win due to the gameplay potential and Sakurai likely wanting to push his favorite series more.
That said, I believe that Sakurai played Xenoblade X in 2015 around the time when Smash DLC was being developed and likely loved the gameplay/world building (Sakurai plays a lot of games during his free time and often delves into great gameplay/game design in Famitsu columns, even during Smash Switch development. I would like to note XC2 and Stardew Valley as recent examples). His potential love for the game could have influenced Sakurai to consider Elma for the next Smash’s project plan in 2015.
Elma in particular is very unique in that she utilizes an interchangeable weapon that can switching from dual guns to dual swords. Her weapons can be changed via special to give her a different set of standard ground/aerial attacks. The attacks for dual guns have weaker knock-back and melee range, but has long range projectiles. The dual swords cannot hit as far as dual guns, but they deal bigger knock-back and damage with decent melee range.
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The class Elma belongs to is of the Fullmetal Jaguar class, which excels in evasion/accuracy and has set of skills special to her such as Shadowstrike and Ghostwalker. All of these options for a move-set would make her play-style very distinct, as she would not only be a quick user akin to a fighter like Sheik, but also have a plethora of melee/range options at her disposal to keep her opponents guessing on what play-style she will be utilizing next. In my opinion, this unique play-style that remains true to Xenoblade X would be enticing enough for Sakurai to implement her in Smash.
I believe Elma will be in, but there are a few cons that could go against her inclusion. Around Smash Switch’s project plan, Sakurai likely would have put a placeholder for Elma. But, here is the very interesting situation, Sakurai would have likely negotiated with Monolith Soft for Elma, could have faced possible conflict, with Monolith noting Sakurai that they were developing a Xenoblade sequel for the Nintendo NX, where Sakurai could have been shown very early gameplay concepts of Rex and Blades. With Sakurai possibly having this early information, there could be a wall to Elma’s inclusion that could favor Rex more for the 2nd Xenoblade newcomer spot due to the convenient situation being similar to Greninja in Smash 4.
But, it is very unlikely that both could get in due to Xenoblade 2 releasing way too late in 2017, as Sakurai will most likely give this franchise the FE treatment due to the franchise not being as big as Pokemon, giving a 6 month early/late period to consider a Xenoblade newcomer out of. Rex is a small obstacle to Elma than anything else. The only real concern that could exclude Elma is whether or not she would be in the final project plan. Elma would have likely been in early roster drafts for Smash Ultimate, but whether she will be in the first proposal that was made in December 2015 remains to be seen, since Xenoblade X's Japanese release could be seen as too late by then. Then again, Fates' international release was also accounted with Corrin's inclusion for Smash 4 DLC. Who knows? As of now, I see Elma as pretty likely.
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When I witnessed the de-confirmation of Takamaru as an Assist Trophy and Balloon Fighter being a part of Villager’s recovery special again through E3 footage of Smash Ultimate, I was utterly astonished. I thought those two had the best chance to get in as the retro newcomer pick. It took me awhile to process the news, and I had wondered about which retro newcomer Sakurai had picked if Takamaru was not the one planned for the 2015 project plan. I looked into the remaining retro choices like Excitebiker, Mach Rider, and Prince Sable, quickly dismissing the latter two, only seeing the first choice as the only plausible character. But then, I witnessed a new, but obviously fake Smash leak featuring Lip that happened in the Smash Ultimate Discussion thread. I suddenly started to create connections to Lip and other factors Sakurai stated to be important when he included retros like Pit/Little Mac. I have an unusual amount of confidence for Lip and I want to explain why I have a moderate degree of faith that she will be in Smash Ultimate.
Since Super Smash Bros. Brawl, popularity has been a big factor towards the inclusion of retro newcomers. Pit being in Brawl was the result of being the most requested retro newcomer in America and Japan, noting the foreshadowing in Pit’s trophy description in Melee. This hint led to many fan theories, which caused the support for Pit erupt in a huge scale. Little Mac’s addition in Smash 4 was the result of him being the most popular retro in the West, with Punch Out Wii’s release and the VGTribune poll that was sent to Sakurai at the time of project proposal helping Mac’s inclusion. I think it is safe to say that popularity in the West and Japan will contribute to a retro newcomer’s addition for this Smash. With the Smash Ballot allowing a large number of fans to vote, who could have been the most popular retro request? With the more casual Smash fans likely campaigning for third-parties/Nintendo newcomers like Bayonetta, Geno, Ridley, Waluigi, and K. Rool, it is hard to find anything concrete that would suggest a specific retro being very popular in the West and Japan. Fortunately, I can find out which retro newcomer was extremely popular during the ballot voting period through a process of elimination.
Researching a number of websites like Smashboards, Gamefaqs, and Twitter, I did not find much notable campaigning for Excitebiker, Mach Rider, Prince of Sable, and Takamaru. However, there was one single retro who I have seen consistently campaigned in both the West and Japan. That being Lip. Upon looking into Lip's support during the Smash ballot period, Lip was the only retro I have seen with a truly dedicated following that parallels the likes of the dedicated Daisy fan-base in many ways. As someone who pays attention to retro newcomer support fanbases closely, I know for sure that not even Takamaru and Prince Sable had much discussion and fan-dedication as Lip. I have seen supporters of Lip from the West/East that have passionately made fan art, several videos, and MANY moveset ideas for the flower fairy, with a numerous amount of hardcore PDP fans campaigning a revival of Panel de Pon and Lip being playable in Smash Bros. This following might have been big enough to vote in a grander scale than Takamaru, possibly making Lip the most voted retro in the West and Japan. Lip is the only fanbase I know that would be capable of accomplishing a notable feat in votes.
Now assuming that Lip was the most popular retro, would her being from a Japan-only game stop Sakurai from including the character? Personally, I do not think Panel de Pon’s obscurity would be a huge problem. Sakurai loves his retro characters, especially with Japan-only games. He has shown his love of these titles with Assist Trophies like Takamaru and Sable, trophies like Ayumi Tachibana and Diskun, remixes of Lip’s theme and Mysterious Murasame Castle, and, at one point, was willing enough to make characters from a Japan only franchise playable in the form of Marth and Roy. Hypothetically, If Sakurai saw the huge ballot popularity for Lip, I believe he would immediately jump at the chance. Even if her game was Japan-only, I feel that worldwide demand would be able to make up for her obscurity. Sakurai personally considered Panel de Pon to be a masterpiece, and this alone makes me certain that he loves the the franchise. I would not be very surprised if this quickly enticed him to make Lip a playable character. Lip’s gameplay potential and character individuality would also be a factor Sakurai would be attracted by, with her being a magical flower fairy who would be able to utilize Panel de Pon puzzle gameplay mechanics and the flower effects of Lip’s Stick for a very unique moveset. With these positives going for Lip, I feel that she will be the next retro choice chosen by Sakurai.
Of course, there is the real possibility that Lip’s ballot popularity could have been less than Prince of Sable or Excitebiker. But, I personally doubt it at this point. With two of the biggest retro choices out of the running (Takamaru and Balloon Fighter), the only retro newcomer I feel pretty confident of being the most popular is Lip. Here is hoping my assessment is correct. Lip’s inclusion would do wonders and would help Intelligent Systems finally make a new Panel de Pon game, which would be a blessing for me.
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Rhythm Heaven is among one of the biggest Nintendo franchises in Japan. Ever since the franchise's late debut on the Gameboy Advance's life cycle in 2006, the franchise has gained a large, Japanese fanbase. It continued to grow bigger with the debut of the sequel Rhythm Heaven on the Nintendo DS in 2008. Due to the success of the first game in Japan, the sequel managed to receive a global localization. The DS iteration managed to sell over 3 million units total, which marked the peak of the franchise. Rhythm Heaven continued to perform greatly with the Wii sequel (Rhythm Heaven Fever) and the 3DS sequel (Rhythm Heaven: Megamix). The cult fanbase for Rhythm Heaven outside of Japan grew greatly around the time of Fever, spawning hundreds of fan-remixes and memes on YouTube thanks to the mini-game of Ringside. The dedication of Rhythm Heaven fan-content still happens to this day. With all of the fan-content and Japan success, you would think a Rhythm Heaven character would get in Smash by now. Well, not exactly, but there is a ray of hope that a RH character was planned way back in Smash 4.
Before E3 2014 came, there was a Gematsu leak that would leak a second batch of newcomers for the roster. One of these choices were the Chorus Kids. Since the leak, there have been many debates and controversy on the inclusion of Chorus Kids. The negative reception soon spread like wildfire once they were not present in Smash 4's base game and DLC selection. With such reception, the Smash fanbase soon grew silent on the possibility of Chorus Kids, even in Smash Ultimate speculation to this day. But, ever since that leak came, there has been a growing amount of supporters for multiple Rhythm Heaven characters in general. Fan-content would soon multiply thereafter. Thanks to the leak, a bigger Rhythm Heaven fanbase outside of Japan soon sprouted. With Smash Ultimate nearby, now would be the best time to include a Rhythm Heaven character.
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I am of the specific camp that believes the Gematsu Leak was the original roster draft for Smash 4 before changes got made due to 3DS limitations or moveset potential matters (Robin chosen over Chrom for example). I also believe that due to 3DS limitations, it kept ‘duo’ characters like Chorus Kids and Ice Climbers from getting in the game. With the hidden files of a Rhythm Heaven symbol and Sneaky Spirit in Smash Run, it all points to Chorus Kids’ potential inclusion in Smash.
Sakurai already sees merit in Rhythm Heaven getting a character. He already saw the potential of utilizing these specific characters, likely utilizing moves inspired by several rhythm mini-games with a play-style that involves rhythmic timing. The main question is mostly if technical difficulties will become an issue again. I doubt it will this time. I also highly doubt that any other character from RH would get in. Because if there were going to be a RH character, Sakurai would have chosen another candidate like Karate Man to be in Smash 4 by now. The lack of a RH character in Smash 4’s base game and DLC selection suggests to me that Sakurai wants to keep the character idea of Chorus Kids and try to make them work in the Switch version of Smash this time around. Sakurai likely had a full move-set concept of the Chorus Kids way back in Smash 4, based on this article here:
"Nintendo Dream: When not you are not developing and there is a new title or character released, you are not thinking about “How about that one in the next Smash Bros?”, right?
Masahiro Sakurai: Absolutely not! I’m always thinking that doing Smash Bros. again will be impossible. Impossible, impossible…is what I always think, but I ended up making it again (laughs). But once I decide to do it, I’m very fast about creating moves and such. For example Greninja, even before his name was decided I received several illustrations. I took them home in the evening and around midnight I had already done all his actions, normal moves, special moves and pose-pictures and sent them around asking “What do you think?”.
Nintendo Dream: That’s incredible speed! By the way, when deciding on which characters to use, are you looking into unreleased new games?
Masahiro Sakurai: At the very beginning I did that. This time our project-proposal is dated May 2012, at that time all characters were decided already. Then as production moves on we will say “We won’t put that character in” and cut out low-priority-characters."
Assuming he made concepts for move-sets for every Smash 4 newcomer planned, I feel it is EXTREMELY likely that the Chorus Kids concept will be revisited to be implemented for Smash Ultimate (Basing it on the Gematsu leak being true). I personally think a Rhythm Heaven character is an inevitability, with Chorus Kids as the most likely candidate chosen to represent RH as a whole. With Rhythm Heaven’s staggering popularity/impact/sales during the DS era, the mini-games that gained a huge amount of parodies in meme culture, their massive gameplay potential with incorporating rhythm mini-games into a cohesive move-set, Smash Ultimate including Ice Climbers (Making multi-characters like Chorus Kids a possibility), and Megamix's JP release being nearby the time the first Smash Ultimate proposal in December 2015, now would be BEST time to include them.
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With Vergeben’s Simon Belmont/Ridley leak on Gamefaqs having notable credibility, I figured that I would analyze Simon again. What is the main reason Sakurai wanted to add a Konami character in Smash Ultimate, despite the company’s incredibly awful treatment to Kojima during their restructure? I can only think of five possible reasons, one of them being personal impact. Sakurai has personal history with Castlevania since the vert first game on the NES, based on the statement he gave in the Sakurai x Nomura interview:
“For me personally, it was the year 1986, when games like The Legend of Zelda and Castlevania were released, and I experienced physically interactive games. They had a big impact on me.”
I feel that such personal impact with this iconic franchise would tempt him to consider a Castlevania character. Second, Simon's potentially massive ballot popularity. I have seen Simon Belmont constantly requested and campaigned in online forums since the ballot creation. Simon’s amount of votes could have convinced Sakurai enough at least consider the idea thoroughly. Third, the move-set potential Simon offers. Simon has a distinct weapon not primarily used by other Smash characters, which would be his whip. That and his assortment of different weapons like the throwing axe, holy water, and boomerang could have tempted Sakurai to make him playable.
Fourth, pure will. I think there would be no way Konami characters would be a consideration to Sakurai without getting past the Konami Kojima treatment. I feel two things would play into this. One, the strong likelihood that Kojima would want Snake back in Smash. Even back in Smash 4, he still wanted Snake to be in the game despite not being contacted by Sakurai to do negotiations. Metal Gear Solid is still Kojima’s baby, and I cannot imagine an event where Kojima would not want it to happen even in the hard circumstances. If Sakurai contacted him primarily for permission, Kojima would still say yes and possibly help Sakurai with his anger with Konami.
Fifth and most importantly, Sakurai wanting to have Smash be the #1 fighting game roster ever. Sakurai has managed to create an unbelievable roster for Smash 4 thanks to the third-party additions like Sonic, Megaman, Pac-Man, Ryu, Cloud, all big gaming icons in a single fighting game. With Smash 4 in specific, he wanted the 3DS/Wii U installment to be the best character game in the world. If he wanted to fill in the remaining bases for big third-parties like he stated in a Nintendo Dream interview, then he will have to get past Konami’s treatment and try to negotiate one of Konami’s big icons to truly make Smash the number one character game in the world.
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In my perspective, with Konami’s possible restructuring in 2015 when the Smash Ultimate project plan was created, they would still be open and fair with the negotiation of Simon Belmont. Around this time, they previously brought a majority of their old library via Wii U eShop consistently throughout the years when other third-parties couldn’t and allowed their titles to be part of the NES Mini lineup. I personally think in 2015, Konami was free and available to make profitable business deals with Nintendo and Sakurai. All of these factors create an small opening in which Simon Belmont’s inclusion in Smash Bros. is very possible. Now with Snake confirmed to return, games that Vergeben's sources had that were confirmed at E3 2018, and Bomberman being an Assist Trophy, things are looking great for Simon in Smash now.
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I did not think I would ever predict this character in my time of speculating newcomers for Smash Ultimate, but here I am, finding Leon a very plausible candidate. The main reason I did not consider him was because I personally never grew up with the Resident Evil games, as I immediately avoided horror games in general. I found third parties from mature franchises like Bayonetta super possible back in the Smash 4 DLC days, but never saw a Resident Evil character as a big possibility. It was not until I thought about Sakurai’s statement in a Nintendo Dream on there not being globally popular third parties left to add in Smash:
“—Final Fantasy VII (FFVII below) has never been released on a Nintendo console, so how did Cloud end up appearing in Smash?
Sakurai: Final Fantasy (FF below) is one of the few uniquely Japanese game series revered by players around the world. I think fans across the globe have hoped a character from one of those series would appear in Smash, so it was only a matter of time. At the same time, there are only so many big-name titles we can work with at this point—mainly because we’ve covered most of those bases. Aside from the major globally-recognized franchises already featured in Smash, there really aren’t that many left.”
Among the many possible third-party characters whose franchises are world-wide known, I could only think of Simon from Castlevania, Layton from Professor Layton, and Sora from Kingdom Hearts. Dragon Quest, Yo-kai Watch, and Monster Hunter never came to me as possible due to their franchises not being very successful in the West. I decided to research more on Capcom’s franchises after finding Monster Hunter implausible. When I saw Resident Evil’s global sales, it finally dawned on me. Resident Evil is one of the few uniquely Japanese third-party series that is massively successful in both Japan and West, with over 80 million sales under the franchise’s belt.
Not only that, but I recalled seeing numerous Resident Evil characters frequently and highly requested during pre-Smash 4 speculation and the ballot period, with names like Leon Kennedy, Jill Valentine, and Nemesis coming up as RE suggestions for many casual Smash fans. With Sakurai knowing about Resident Evil serving as the final coffin of my horror game bias, I have opened up to the possibility of a RE character. Not only would a Resident Evil character serve as a possible ballot candidate, but it would also be the perfect surprise Sakurai could ever think of. If Sakurai wanted to add third-party characters from globally recognized franchises for Smash Ultimate, a Resident Evil character would serve his needs greatly. The only questions that remain is figuring out who was the most requested RE character in the Smash Ballot and if the character’s use of realistic weapons could pose a major issue for Sakurai when it comes to age rating companies like CERO and ESRB.
When it comes to finding which Resident Evil character is most suggested by Smash fans, it all comes down to Jill Valentine and Leon Kennedy. From the polls I have seen, it seems like Leon was the most requested. When asking RE supporters about the reasons why Leon could have been requested more in the ballot, there was generally one primary reason. That being Leon’s game, Resident Evil 4, being most closely associated with Nintendo fans, as the franchise had a somewhat of a close history with Nintendo with titles such as Resident Evil: Revelations and Resident Evil 2 for the N64 coming to mind. Resident Evil 4 was the most impactful in Nintendo history, which could be why many casual Smash fans would have voted for Leon the most in the ballot. The reason I chose the most popular RE character was because Sakurai did a similar situation when deciding a Final Fantasy character for Smash, with Cloud being the most requested from fans according to Sakurai:
"Sakurai: This isn’t an exact number, but among the requests for a Final Fantasy character to appear in Smash, around ¼ to ⅓ of the requests we got from fans were for Cloud. [TN1] I really wanted to answer the desires of those fans, and even though I thought it would be impossible, I reached out anyway, just to try."
Now there is only one more matter to settle. Will Leon Kennedy’s use of real weaponry prevent Sakurai from adding the character? I do not believe this will be a problem. I personally think that Sakurai’s veteran experience with incorporating characters from mature titles in Smash like Snake and Bayonetta will help him find solutions into figuring out the right weaponry to use for Leon’s moveset. Sakurai has asked for several modifications of characters from many third-party developers and creators on what abilities and tools can a character utilize in Smash. With Capcom giving Sakurai the full freedom to modify characters like Mega Man and Ryu to translate them to Smash gameplay when needed, I feel VERY sure they will find a solution.
I feel strong about Sakurai finding a solution, especially when Hideki Kamiya, one of the creators of Leon Kennedy, would be absolutely willing to lend help with figuring out moves for Leon that stays true to his character, who previously let Sakurai modify Bayonetta back in the Smash 4 DLC days. Leon just has so much distinct moveset potential and characterization (with him rooting from the horror game genre coming to mind) that makes him a stand-out character from other Smash characters, that I think Sakurai would be immensely willing to get him in Smash in any way possible. Sakurai giving up on the RE character idea is very unlikely to happen, in my perspective.
Right now, I personally feel more confident about Leon Kennedy getting in than other third-parties at the moment. I feel more confident about Leon than even Simon Belmont, whom has Vergeben and personal history with Sakurai mainly backing up his inclusion. Leon is the character I think will be Smash Ultimate’s big third-party surprise, in the same vein as Snake and Cloud. I could be wrong, but with what Sakurai said about covering the bases with adding third-party characters from globally popular game franchises, how easy it is to negotiate with Capcom and Kamiya, and the moveset potential Leon can offer, I find it VERY hard to think that Leon will not be in this Smash after what I have learned. We will know in the coming months if my assessment is right.
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Layton getting chosen for Smash Ultimate ultimately depends on how he did in the Smash Ballot. Sakurai will likely use the poll for reference to see which third-party candidates he could add. Fortunately, I think Layton likely ranked in the top 5, at least in the region of Europe. Layton back in Smash 4 speculation was among the most wanted newcomers, going as far being in the top 10 in a VGtribune poll that was sent to Sakurai during the Smash 4 project plan. I feel very confident that Layton ranked high in the ballot, due to the franchise’s immense popularity in Europe.
Because of his potentially high ballot rank in Europe, I think Sakurai will consider Layton for playability. In terms of moveset potential, he already has a high amount for Sakurai to dance his mind around with, basing on Layton’s gentlemanly characterization and puzzle gameplay elements. Professor Layton is one of the few franchises that helped the DS surge in popularity when the first three games came out, giving Layton the game history needed to qualify for Smash. One of the biggest Japanese third party companies ever, Level-5, has had a strong relationship with Nintendo for so many years ever since the first Layton game came out, with Nintendo helping out on localization and marketing. The relationship is so strong that I feel Level-5 and Nintendo would definitely agree on the idea of the professor being playable in Smash. Sakurai and Akihiro were at one point together in a gaming talk show in 2008. One of the show moderators said that he wanted him in Smash with his fencing sword, with Sakurai and the audience responding with a positive laugh.
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It certainly shows that Sakurai knows about the franchise and Level-5 in general, and the familiarity brings a nice contribution to Layton’s chances. To note a recent interview, Hino is definitely open for collaborations when he was asked about crossovers with the Layton franchise. This is VERY true, especially with Level- 5’s other franchises like Youkai Watch, which that had a collaboration movie with Kitaro (the most well known, influential manga in Japan), crossed with Final Fantasy in YW3 and FFXIV, and had multiple anime crossovers with the YW mobile game. Although the degree of crossovers Layton had goes as far as Phoenix Wright, Level-5’s recent collaborations almost assures that the potential negotiations for Layton would go VERY smoothly.
What about Professor Layton's move-set potential? While it is true that the Layton games does not involve much combat, there are times in the game when Layton needs to use combat when it is absolutely necessary. Sakurai could definitely bring up his fencing sword for his main use of combat.
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In fencing, there are a lot of defensive and counter strategies involved. Each of the players concentrate hard to strike the opponent’s target area without leaving themselves open to hitting. This can translate to his being a more defensive character that has a variety of ways to counter the opponent. Layton is known to think and solve puzzles in as many ways as he can, so it certainly stays true to his character while keeping him interesting and making him stand out from other characters currently in the game. He is also known to be a skilled craftsman, from creating a slot machine gun, to a catapult, to a hang glider. This weapons and tools provide a plethora of defensive strategies that would further distinguish Layton from other characters, making him a really good fit for Smash Ultimate.
I have seen many speculators point out that Layton as not being a huge enough gaming icon as an obstacle. I do not see "third-parties" being huge icons being an obstacle for Layton. What Sakurai sees as icons may not match what fans perceive to be. Sakurai thought Bayonetta was pretty significant in the action/hack & slash genre in this Famitsu column:
"When you talk about stylish action games, Bayonetta’s the name that always comes up. But, I don’t think there’s been a game that’s surpassed Bayonetta yet, though."
When Bayonetta was added as Smash 4 DLC years later after the post-Bayonetta column, the issue of her being a huge gaming icon as Cloud, Ryu, Mega Man, and Pac-Man did not impede her into becoming a character. What Sakurai considers as icons is not to the same degree as fans, with him looking into recent franchises that defined genres. Professor Layton is a recent, defining third-party franchise of the DS and 3DS era with 15 million copies sold as of 2013 for the puzzle genre. So Layton meets the qualifications as an icon for the genre he belongs to.
That being said, there is one tiny dilemma that I can see happening with these negotiations, that being Level-5 wanting the company to add a Youkai Watch character instead. But at this point of YW’s state in Japan and worldwide, I ultimately feel Layton will be the one chosen, especially when the Layton franchise has seen a recent major resurgence and focus on the franchise in the form of Lady Layton's game/anime and the professor’s international recognition in the gaming community. The only legitimate issue against his inclusion is the possibility of Sakurai limiting the number of potential 3rd party newcomers coming from unrepresented companies he could negotiate with such as Level-5, pouring most of his resources on making every veteran return for Smash Ultimate, sticking to Konami, SEGA, Capcom, Square Enix, and Namco to add third party characters from to save time/money. But with Level-5's relationship with Nintendo, I believe they will be able to make an open compromise that allows Layton in Smash and also giving benefits for both companies.
Because of Layton’s potentially high demand in Europe, the legacy he carried in the DS era, his distinct move-set potential, and the likeliness that Nintendo/Level-5 would agree on the idea of Layton being in Smash, it lines up to him being one of the most likely third party candidates for Smash Ultimate.
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We need to look into the history of clones in Smash before discussing Dixie. Starting with Smash 64, Sakurai was able to create the four hidden characters only with the fact that he was able to reuse some movements and model parts of pre-existing characters from Nintendo and possibly from Dragon King concept of gameplay as well. Although 64’s cast of characters were all unique, it was not until Melee greatly expanded on clones. With Melee, Sakurai added last-minute clones mid-way in development to pad out the roster. This was the only time where Sakurai would come up with clone ideas during development. For Brawl, clone characters like Wolf/Toon Link were planned since the start. Note, for Brawl, Dixie was actually part of the cut character line-up based on file evidence, which indicates Sakurai already finding her merits to being a playable character.
For Smash 4, newcomer clones were not originally planned, but only the alternate costume to last-minute clones due to characteristic differences in attack function. The only notable way I can see new clones get in is through alt. costume to last-minute character or if they are clones planned from the start. This method is further enforced by the inclusion of Echo Fighters, of which the reasons of inclusion are most likely based on fan and ballot popularity. Dixie likely gained a notable degree of popularity at the time of the ballot alongside K. Rool to get considered. But whether she gets in as an Echo Fighter or as a semi-clone is entirely up to Sakurai and how much care he wants to put into making a faithful moveset to Dixie.
Sakurai could easily just slap in Dixie's Hair Flight and Bubblegum Gun as the only move changes and call it a day to do the minimum requirements of an echo fighter to please the fans. And with Diddy Kong no longer having tail moves based on his Smash Ultimate trailer, it feels more likely that Dixie will be in purely as an echo fighter than becoming a semi-clone. But maybe, Sakurai would be willing to make Dixie more distinct since Sakurai likely made a moveset for Dixie way back in Brawl's project plan, as movesets would likely been made for every newcomer at the time of planning. There is also the chance that Sakurai would not want to do further effort on new clones and focus on Echo Fighters being a wee bit distinct, but also feel Dixie being an echo fighter would be a disservice to the character, putting Dixie Kong in a middle-ground where she is excluded in Smash Ultimate altogether. Either way, I feel Dixie Kong has a good shot of getting in.
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Octolings are characters from Splatoon, debuting as enemies in the Splatoon’s single player campaign. Since Splatoon's big growth of popularity worldwide as a franchise (Especially in Japan), the Octolings have gained a massive fanbase mainly due to their appealing designs, spawning an immense amount of fan art, cosplay, and SFM videos. The Octolings were SO popular, that a colossal number of people requested of their playable appearance in the first Splatoon game, way before the Splatoon 2 Octo-Expansion was announced (I do not see the expansion as a positive factor for Octolings due to the release being too late in project planning). This playable Splatoon 1 appearance did not happen, but it goes to show how dedicated Octoling fans are.
This demand would likely lead to Sakurai adding them as Inkling costumes in Smash Ultimate. I theorize that Octolings were originally alternate costumes for the Inklings, but with how very distinguished the Octolings play-style are in Splatoon’s story, they became separate characters. Why do I note of the Octoling’s playstyle? I base that on this this article of Sakurai explaining Lucina’s addition over Chrom:
“Initially, I had considered including Lucina as one of Marth's alternate costumes. After all, she has a close relationship with him in FE:A. In such cases, even if two characters' names and voices differ, as long as they function the same way, I assign them as alternate costumes. The Wii Fit Trainers, Villagers, and Robin are examples of this setup.
However, even though Lucina shares her physical stats and techniques with Marth, the characteristics of their attacks differ. When two such similar characters function in an even slightly different manner, I give them a separate spot on the roster since that will affect battle records and whatnot. In that sense, you could say she was very lucky to join the fray!”
Octolings function and attack differently from Inklings in that their Elite counterparts are faster, more resilient, and deal more damage than regular Inklings. Since Octolings function different from Inklings, I feel that it will be one of the main reasons why Octolings will become separate fighters. But the biggest reason I think this decision could be made is because of the potential for unique differences.
Examining the first Splatoon’s roster of weapons alone, there is a gigantic, distinct selection of weapons to choose from that not even the Inklings cramming a fraction of the weapons in one moveset in Smash would be able to fill the entire gap out of. The options could entice Sakurai to make them separate and play around with weapons that Inklings are not utilizing. To share an example, here are multiple ways that Octolings can be differentiated:
-Octolings utilizing the faster Inkbrush, with Inklings having the slower Splat Roller.
-Octolings utilizing the quicker reloading multi-Burst Bomb, with Inklings having the standard Splat Bomb.
-Octolings utilizing the quick-charging Bamboozler 14, with Inklings using the standard Splat charger.
-Octolings utilizing the high rate Splash-o-matic, with Inklings using the standard Splattershot.
Basically, Octolings would have a more aggressive, quicker playstyle than Inklings. Of course, there is the other possibility that the changes would be minor and disappointing like with Dark Pit and Lucina in Smash 4. But noting Sakurai’s quote about “similar characters function in an even slightly different manner”, such minor differences will make them separate and different enough to warrant their own spot regardless. The possibility of Octolings becoming unplanned newcomer clones is strong, especially with the current advertising of Echo Fighters. There is also the possibility that they could stay as alternate costumes too, with Echo Fighters just being based purely on ballot popularity rather than fan popularity within a franchise, of which Octolings do not apply to ballot due to them likely not being voted over Inklings at the time. We will have to see.
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Ever since the reveal of Knuckles’ Assist Trophy and the new “Echo Fighter” classification of near clones, Shadow has been a potential candidate around many Smash fans’ minds. I initially despised the possibility of it happening, but after thinking about it critically, Shadow is an addition that makes some sense in the context of being an Echo Fighter. The character’s popularity is not to be understated. Shadow is extremely popular in the Sonic fanbase and I would not be surprised if he performed strongly in ballot votes to be an Echo Fighter consideration.
Considering Daisy was likely added purely because to her ballot popularity, I can easily imagine Sakurai thinking in a very different mindset for Echos, to which he tries to cater to as many fans as possible to Ultimate by adding Shadow. I do not believe that will be concerned about adding a second character from a third-party franchise, so as long as the character is similar enough to its counterpart to develop an quick and easy addition. Even though Shadow would be more suited to being more unique with the potential to use his chaos powers, in many Sonic games, he plays so similarly to Sonic that I would not be shocked if Sakurai thought of the similarities too and used that as a basis to seriously consider Shadow for a possible Echo Fighter.
There is not much else to say on Shadow really, as the possible reasons for his inclusion is very straightforward. I understand that there are Smash fans out there that absolutely do not like the idea of multiple characters from the same third party franchise. But, I feel what should be understood that Sakurai will likely think in a different criteria when it comes to choosing Echo Fighters. The rules of choosing Echos are likely much more looser, boiling down the usual newcomer criteria down to just ballot popularity. There might one exception such as the Octolings when it comes to alternate costume to character situations, but I feel most of the Echo Fighters chosen will be of ballot candidates, with Shadow being among one of them.
I personally do not expect all of these newcomers to get in. I think some of these choices will make it. In the process of elimination, these newcomers I am predicting are the only ones I believe have a real shot at being playable in Smash Ultimate. Aside from catching up with the Smash Ultimate Discussion thread, following some support threads, and participating in RTC, I do not plan to speculate hardcore again over the course of the remaining six months. I do not plan to change my predictions either, as I want to get back into other personal things such as classes, anime, and manga. Changing my predictions twice is enough, and it would not be fun if I constantly changed them. I had already figured out my stance for pretty much every possible newcomer in-depth with RTC, so further research would feel unneccessary. I will see if I end up getting the full list of newcomers correct by the time Smash Ultimate's roster is leaked or fully revealed. If you have feedback on my predictions, let me know.
Special thanks to GoldenYuiitusin, Aurora Jenny, TCT~Phantom, everyone in the Rate Their Chances thread, everyone in the SG Discord, every support thread of newcomers I am predicting that helped me with research, and everyone else in the Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Discussion thread for giving me in-depth feedback on my prediction rosters and providing interesting discussion on each newcomer's chances at being in Smash. I also want to give a massive shoutout to Source Gaming for providing valuable sources for Smash information. Without the website, I would not have been able to go this far in Smash speculation.
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-84 Characters total. (78 if you exclude Echo Fighters)
-15 unique newcomers. 4 new echo fighters.
Other Notes:
-I am predicting a Hanafuda character in general, not specifically Daitouryou.
-I am predicting Lycanroc in general, not any specific form of Lycanroc.
For me personally, I do not believe Sakurai's statement on not expecting too many newcomers means much. Despite what Sakurai has said about roster size and increasing characters being an issue in Smash 4, he still manages to surpass expectations. In Smash 4's base game alone, he managed to develop and finish 17 newcomers in time. And with Smash Ultimate's roster surpassing our expectations with every veteran returning, I would not be shocked if the amount of newcomers we get surpasses expectations as well, despite the roster being so large already.
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Choosing Geno as a prediction was not an easy decision. I grew up playing Super Mario RPG on the Wii Virtual Console loving every second of the experience. I thought Geno was a very cool character back then and wanted him in Smash 4. That never happened. But, I was super astonished when Geno had his own Mii costume for Smash 4 DLC. I looked into the interview of Sakurai mentioning the story behind the Mii costume with him stating:
"Geno:
—What led you to decide to make a Geno costume after all this time?
Sakurai: To tell the truth, it’s because I wanted Geno to be a playable character. He has a gun for a hand, and I think he fits in really well with Smash. During Brawl, I thought it would be great if I could add him, but in the end it didn’t become a reality."
I interpreted that comment as Square Enix being stingy about their properties. I thought he was not included because he was just a character from a one-off SNES game and never thought much about it since, slowly drifting away my hope for the puppet as time went on, never seriously considering him when it came to Smash Ultimate newcomer speculation. But, then I thought about critically. I thought about Vergeben's rumor of Simon Belmont and Ridley being in Smash as his info quickly became more legitimate at E3. What these two choices hold in common was that they were generally perceived as impossible due to many reasons such as Konami being a bad company, the harsh treatment of Kojima, and Sakurai stating two times in Brawl/Smash 4 that Ridley would be impossible.
Thinking hypothetically, if Sakurai went that far to implement these characters in Smash Ultimate, despite the very difficult obstacles, I personally believe Sakurai would go beyond the line and negotiate Geno from Square Enix yet again. What I theorize about Smash 4 DLC was that the production for it had a lower budget. The evidence pointing to this is Sakurai stating that they had a smaller team working on the DLC, noting that there were a smaller selection of songs to choose from (pointing out the Midgar FF7 stage having only two non-remixed songs), and Sakurai choosing to add the "most realizable and negotiable character" (Bayonetta) when it came to the Smash 4 ballot. I feel these budget constraints prevented Sakurai from negotiating beyond Cloud Strife for Smash 4 DLC, with the only affordable option left being to add Geno as a Mii costume.
Normally, I would say that Geno being a one-shot character and Square Enix being strict would damage his chance to be in Smash. But, I do not believe this to be an actual problem for Sakurai. He wanted Geno badly back in Brawl and Smash 4 because of his move-set potential, setting aside the fact that his appearance was one-time, being willing enough to get Geno as one of the only notable Mii costumes for Smash 4 DLC done for the fans. Considering that SMRPG was one of Square's biggest successes in history (with SMRPG selling as massively as the huge Tomb Raider/Final Fantasy games), I feel the company would be fine with the idea of SMRPG being represented in Smash. The belief that Square Enix would strike against the idea of Geno being playable is a huge overstatement.
Square would be willing to make business to make Geno in Smash a reality, if the budget for negotiating characters for Smash Ultimate allows it. With the opportunity being possible thanks to Smash Ultimate likely being a higher budget game, this would finally have Sakurai realize Geno for Smash. The 13 year-long journey of Sakurai wanting Geno as a playable fighter would close in pure satisfaction for him and the immense number of hardcore Geno supporters. With Sakurai focusing more on popular newcomers this time around with a somewhat tighter newcomer pool, I am banking that he will make Geno a playable character, making a dream finally come true.
I have never seriously considered K. Rool to be a notable contender. I originally thought Dixie Kong had the best chance as the DKC newcomer, even though I felt her chances were very small at best because of Sakurai originally not planning clones in the beginning for Smash 4’s roster. I did play through the Rare SNES Trilogy for the first time to get an appreciation of the character and his insane personality, but I have remained in a skeptical mindset, up until the Smash Ultimate reveal. This was when my approach to Smash speculation had changed. King K. Rool has been wandering in my mind since then.
Previously, I tried digger deeper beyond the basic character criteria, looking into Sakurai interviews and other resources related to DKC that could possibly benefit K. Rool’s inclusion. I tried researching the reasons Diddy Kong was included in Brawl, and found nothing. I tried researching about K. Rool and Dixie’s creator, Steve Mayles, to see if he was involved in helping out with Brawl’s planning phase, with Dixie being originally a part of Diddy via tag-team in Brawl. I found nothing but Steve encouraging and wanting his characters to be in Smash, likely having little involvement in Ultimate due to his role in Playtonic Games, working on Yooka Laylee at the time. I tried to find other Nintendo staff members that would have helped realize Diddy’s Brawl moveset by looking into the new DK IP team mentioned in a Gamexplain Rabbids DLC interview, Paon (Developers responsible for the DKC games after Rare), and Miyamoto (Who had the closest involvement during the production of the Rare DKC trilogy). I still have found nothing concrete, researching a second time for several hours.
The only things I found that could possibly help K. Rool is the mysterious Mii costume that was added via Smash 4 DLC and that this Smash will likely focus on including popular ballot newcomers. The reasons the costume was included is unknown and was never clarified by Sakurai, unlike Geno. But, the level of detail given to the K. Rool costume to match Rare’s redesign is a bit eyebrow raising. The only thing I can confidently say really helps K. Rool is the immense ballot demand. Whether or not this demand is enough to overshadow the big negative of not playing a major role in the new mainline Donkey Kong Country titles has yet to be seen.
But, given that Sakurai seriously considered Geno for Brawl and Smash 4, despite being from a very old title, he might see K. Rool’s high ballot demand to be enough to think critically about his inclusion. The moveset potential and unique characteristics K. Rool could also help Sakurai view him as a stand-out character, being a heavyweight with an crazy cruel personality that would utilize many projectile weapons like the boomerang crown and blunderbuss for a distinct ranged play-style. With K. Rool being a character that would also attract a large Western audience like Ridley, I believe these are the positives I feel could suffice Sakurai enough to include the character.
In my personal perspective, King K. Rool, while having a good shot because of high ballot demand, is a bit of a shot in the dark. I say this only because I know so little of how Sakurai approached Donkey Kong Country newcomers back in Brawl, with little resources about DKC to be able to have very firm confidence on his inclusion. I can only speculate that Diddy Kong was included in Brawl due to his high demand, but the reasons were not specified by Sakurai, unlike Pit and Meta Knight. Regardless of him being somewhat risky choice, I am willing to predict that King K. Rool will finally be playable in this new Smash. I hope if K. Rool is included, Sakurai will characterize his insanity to the full extent in every part of his moveset.
If there is one single Nintendo title I never stop seeing constant references of, it would be The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask. I have seen Majora’s Mask through countdown gifs on the internet, references in cartoons, endless merchandise, fan-videos, and a number of other things that makes the game a seriously common presence in video game pop culture. Majora’s Mask is considered a classic by a large number of hardcore Zelda fans for its dark story, tone, and memorable characters. The game was so popular, a large number of fans created a campaign called Operation Moonfall to get a Majora’s Mask remake on the Nintendo 3DS after the release of Ocarina of Time 3D.
The game’s massive popularity explains why Skull Kid has been the most requested Zelda newcomer for a long period of time since Brawl. He was so popular at the time of Brawl that a number of mods and Smash fan renders were made for the character. At the time of Smash 4, he was the most voted newcomer in a VGTribune poll sent to Sakurai during the game’s project proposal. With Skull Kid maintaining his status as one of the most requested Smash newcomers of all time, it may finally be his time to get in as a playable character, with ballot popularity likely being a big factor for many inclusions in Smash Ultimate this time around.
Although Skull Kid does not have many statements said by Sakurai that could point towards his inclusion, he does have a similar obstacle and many pros that parallel to Geno in some ways. One major positive aside from his popularity that he has is moveset potential. I personally feel Skull Kid's mischievous character being able to utilize his mask and ocarina for unleashing bizarre dark powers makes him unlike any other character currently in Smash Bros, which could make him an extremely enticing character to implement for Sakurai this time around. Even as non-Zelda fan that only played a bit of Majora's Mask on the Wii Virtual Console, I could easily see his distinct characteristics and the moveset potential he provides as a fighter.
The only question that remains is if Sakurai would see the long-time high popularity being sufficing enough to seriously consider Skull Kid for playability. I think Sakurai could change his mind on him this time around. I feel fan demand will help Sakurai view many newcomers from a different, open perspective and make exceptions for negatives like Geno’s one-time status, Ridley’s possibly difficult implementation in Smash, and K. Rool’s lack of a major role in recent Donkey Kong Country games. Skull Kid’s demand can easily have Sakurai forgive his negative having only one major role in one Zelda title. This is quite possibly the best time Skull Kid can get in Smash if ballot popularity is a major factor for a notable portion of the newcomer pool.
For the longest time since the beginning of Smash Ultimate speculation, I have been skeptical of Bandanna Dee’s chances. But, after thinking about Dee critically from a different perspective, I finally see why fans have been confident with Bandanna Dee. Before looking into positives, we need to look at the history of new Kirby additions with earlier Smash games. For King Dedede, he was planned to be included in Smash 64, but was cut during development. For Meta-knight, his inclusion was considered in Melee, but was held off because he wanted put other Nintendo titles in the spotlight before his own franchise, despite the character being extremely popular in Japan. Sakurai’s hesitance on more Kirby newcomers remained until Brawl, where he finally added King Dedede and Meta-knight.
I feel Sakurai’s hesitance on his characters was the main reason Bandanna Dee was excluded from Smash 4’s roster. This was very understandable, given that Dee’s playable debut in Kirby: Return to Dreamland might have been seen as too pre-mature, lacking the substantial amount of importance needed to be considered a central Kirby character. But now, Bandanna Dee has been increasing in importance, with his playable role in Kirby: Rainbow Curse and a number of smaller roles in Triple Deluxe, Planet Robobot, and Battle Royale. With HAL Laboratory paying ample attention to the Kirby fanbase and giving Dee greater presence and marketing, there is a real chance that Sakurai could notice this push, giving HAL the opportunity to recommend Bandanna Dee while Sakurai works on Smash Ultimate’s project planning phase to heavily push for a playable Bandanna Dee.
With Bandanna Dee’s increasing importance, it resulted with an increasing Dee fanbase, which likely caused a high surge of votes for the character with the Smash 4 ballot. These two factors could finally lead Sakurai to seriously consider Bandanna Dee and let go of his Kirby character hesitance/modesty. Gameplay potential would not be a notable problem, as Dee’s utilization of spears alone is minimally distinct enough from the current Smash cast for Sakurai to find easy move-set inspiration. It could be argued that just utilizing spears lacks substance, but Sakurai can find inspiration in the minimum a character offers, as he only needs to look at one distinct, on-the-surface trait to find the potential like Little Mac’s single, unique trait of being a boxer and Ryu’s single, unique trait of utilizing fighting game mechanics for Smash gameplay.
There is a chance that Sakurai’s modesty on Kirby character representation could still remain or that he does not find Dee central to Kirby enough to exclude Dee from the roster, but at this point, that has a small chance of happening with the positives of his inclusion the spear-wielder currently has. I am banking Sakurai finally making Bandanna Dee a playable character after making sure of his massive popularity within the Kirby fanbase and his likely high number of votes with the Smash 4 Ballot. Dee has almost nothing preventing his inclusion now.
After researching Sakurai’s criteria on Pokemon again, I have realized that Decidueye actually is not the frontrunner candidate for the next Pokemon newcomer. Who will be chosen will be based on combination of factors. While Decidueye has huge popularity in the Pokemon fanbase and gameplay potential, there is one factor he misses that is crucial for his inclusion, this part in particular:
“Well first of all, we talk with the Pokemon company. What’s the hot Pokemon? What Pokemon are in the movies right now? And really do a lot of research on that front.
For example, X and Y are coming out – of course, we haven’t done any market research because they’re not out yet, but we look at the animated series or movies and anything like that and again, find out which ones are going to be central to any of conversations in Pokemon going forward.
But it’s not just that – going back to just what we talked about, what’s unique about them? Where do they fit in with the rest of everything else? What do they have? It’s a combination of those things.”
Decidueye has not become a central Pokemon and has been less promoted in the anime. As of Sun/Moon anime's new episodes, Ash’s Rowlet has not evolved into Decidueye, as his current role in the anime is mostly for gags. The one that actually has become central to the anime and marketing in general is Lycanroc:
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Lycanroc has become one of Ash’s primary partners in the anime recently, whose current bond strongly parallels to 6th generation's Greninja. Outside of that medium, his pre-evolution/other forms have been promoted frequently in Sun and Moon via video games, being the first Pokemon to appear in a new trading card mechanic called GX, prominence in the manga, and merchandise. Sakurai has likely done heavy marketing research for Sun/Moon around the time of project planning. Such marketing would have been planned out in advance by The Pokémon Company. TPC would have made Lycanroc to be the most important Pokemon they want Sakurai to pay attention to way back in 2015, giving concept art of the Pokemon's Midday and Midnight form to use for reference.
Lycanroc also has solid move-set potential, wielding the powers of levitating rocks. He is an earth-bender of sorts in Avatar terms, which is very distinct when compared to the current in Smash 4. Since Midnight Lycanroc is the most popular out of its three forms, I will be discussing its play-style in that specific form. Looking at Midnight Lycanroc’s Pokedex information, it acts quite recklessly and craves for victory, provoking opponents and using close combat when nearby. Lycanroc plays as a fighter who utilizes rock powers in melee for a bait-and-attack play-style. The many other forms of Lycanroc like Dusk and Midday can work too if Sakurai wants to have the Pokemon focus on a ranged-attack bait-and-attack play-style. The choices Sakurai has with Lycanroc would provide enough gameplay potential for Sakurai to play around with.
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I personally believe now Lycanroc will be the next and only Pokemon newcomer chosen for Smash. While it would be ideal for the roster to get Lycanroc & Decidueye, I feel that only one spot will remain open, in the same way only one spot was open for one new X/Y Pokemon way back in Smash 4’s project plan,. With Lycanroc having the advantage of being more promoted in several mediums like the anime more than Decidueye way back, It would not matter how distinct Decidueye would be because without that combination of benefits Lycanroc has, he will not make it in. Lycanroc is one of those Pokemon has become central to Sun/Moon from S/M's pre-release to now. I feel firmly confident that Lycanroc will be playable over Decidueye.
“Well first of all, we talk with the Pokemon company. What’s the hot Pokemon? What Pokemon are in the movies right now? And really do a lot of research on that front.
For example, X and Y are coming out – of course, we haven’t done any market research because they’re not out yet, but we look at the animated series or movies and anything like that and again, find out which ones are going to be central to any of conversations in Pokemon going forward.
But it’s not just that – going back to just what we talked about, what’s unique about them? Where do they fit in with the rest of everything else? What do they have? It’s a combination of those things.”
Decidueye has not become a central Pokemon and has been less promoted in the anime. As of Sun/Moon anime's new episodes, Ash’s Rowlet has not evolved into Decidueye, as his current role in the anime is mostly for gags. The one that actually has become central to the anime and marketing in general is Lycanroc:
Lycanroc has become one of Ash’s primary partners in the anime recently, whose current bond strongly parallels to 6th generation's Greninja. Outside of that medium, his pre-evolution/other forms have been promoted frequently in Sun and Moon via video games, being the first Pokemon to appear in a new trading card mechanic called GX, prominence in the manga, and merchandise. Sakurai has likely done heavy marketing research for Sun/Moon around the time of project planning. Such marketing would have been planned out in advance by The Pokémon Company. TPC would have made Lycanroc to be the most important Pokemon they want Sakurai to pay attention to way back in 2015, giving concept art of the Pokemon's Midday and Midnight form to use for reference.
Lycanroc also has solid move-set potential, wielding the powers of levitating rocks. He is an earth-bender of sorts in Avatar terms, which is very distinct when compared to the current in Smash 4. Since Midnight Lycanroc is the most popular out of its three forms, I will be discussing its play-style in that specific form. Looking at Midnight Lycanroc’s Pokedex information, it acts quite recklessly and craves for victory, provoking opponents and using close combat when nearby. Lycanroc plays as a fighter who utilizes rock powers in melee for a bait-and-attack play-style. The many other forms of Lycanroc like Dusk and Midday can work too if Sakurai wants to have the Pokemon focus on a ranged-attack bait-and-attack play-style. The choices Sakurai has with Lycanroc would provide enough gameplay potential for Sakurai to play around with.
I personally believe now Lycanroc will be the next and only Pokemon newcomer chosen for Smash. While it would be ideal for the roster to get Lycanroc & Decidueye, I feel that only one spot will remain open, in the same way only one spot was open for one new X/Y Pokemon way back in Smash 4’s project plan,. With Lycanroc having the advantage of being more promoted in several mediums like the anime more than Decidueye way back, It would not matter how distinct Decidueye would be because without that combination of benefits Lycanroc has, he will not make it in. Lycanroc is one of those Pokemon has become central to Sun/Moon from S/M's pre-release to now. I feel firmly confident that Lycanroc will be playable over Decidueye.
Isabelle has been a major staple for Nintendo ever since her appearance in New Leaf. She had appeared in Mario Kart 8, having her own official Twitter, a forefront marketed icon with significant roles in new AC games, and going farther than amiibo with having her own set of Nendoroids. This character has been more promoted than other AC characters, even more than even the previous face of the franchise, Tom Nook. With such heavy marketing, I definitely think that Nintendo will WANT Sakurai to make her playable as a Smash fighter, much like Rosalina back in Smash 4’s roster plan when the cosmic princess became playable in titles like Super Mario 3D World.
Given Sakurai’s experience with working on non-combatant fighters like Villager and Wii Fit Trainer, I feel very sure that Sakurai can accomplish and create a moveset for Isabelle that would make her a unique fighter. Most might not be able to spot the potential, but looking into Isabelle’s characterization/role in Animal Crossing: New Leaf gives away the answer. Her move-set potential can easily be found in the mayor gameplay of New Leaf. Isabelle's role in Animal Crossing: New Leaf is being a secretary/assistant that helps the villager mayor (the player) with duty management.
At the start, she helps the player that just moved in town by offering advice and making them the mayor, guiding players to earn a development permit, which allows the new mayor to enact new town laws and enable public work projects to built around town. Isabelle also helps the player with the new actions the mayor can do as well. One big part of the mayor gameplay that would be used in Smash gameplay are Public Works Projects, which has Isabelle placing town objects around the environment to gain stage control.
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Isabelle would be placing town structures such as fountains, clock posts, buildings (like cafes) that serve as a primary method of defense. These town structures are automatically built over time through construction zones, but they can be easily crushed by opponents if Isabelle does not keep foes at bay. Once construction is complete, the town structure becomes Isabelle's big advantage. Each town structure has various effects on Isabelle and the opponent. Fountains have wind-box effects for the opponents.
Clock-posts can freeze opponents for a small period of time every time 12 noon is quickly reached. Cafe buildings serve as a healing zone for Isabelle. These constructed objects can be destroyed, but have bigger defense than construction zones. Isabelle can lengthen the time of the town structure's effect and increase defense by holding down the B-button when starting to place structures, but at the cost of longer construction. The more objects Isabelle strategically places on the stage, the more advantages Isabelle has to overwhelm the opponent.
Would this move-set/play-style idea be considered forced like people suggest when move-sets are brought up for Isabelle? I do not believe so. As long as there is source material from the character’s tools, role, characterization and personality from their respective games, that would be enough for Sakurai to spark ideas for a play-style. Taking move-set ideas based on what Isabelle does in the Animal Crossing games is not a forced idea. Only when a character does not offer distinct characteristics, gameplay ideas, and personality compared to the current Smash Bros. roster requiring more creative liberties than the source material gives can a idea be considered forced. Isabelle does not have this problem, as her role in Animal Crossing: New Leaf provides enough instant inspiration.
I think the difference between creating a move-set for Villager and assembling a move-set for Isabelle is the clear theme, characterization, and personality. The villager in Animal Crossing does not have any clear, appealing characteristics that would immediately set a notable template for a move-set, requiring more creative thought and research to assemble a good move-set. Isabelle has a clear, stand-out trait of being a kind assistant managing mayor tasks for me to immediately see her as a unique fighter with potential. It allows the assembling of creating original move ideas for these characters to feel less restrictive and more playful. The least a newcomer needs is a clear theme, a distinct type of combat that has yet to be seen in Smash.
The theme of a town object-builder has not been seen as a fleshed out fighter in Smash. That theme is sufficable enough for Sakurai to work on a good move-set for Isabelle. To think that Sakurai would give up on implementing non-combatant newcomers like Isabelle is underestimating his creativity, especially with Sakurai noting the importance of seeking out newcomers beyond the obvious fighters that are clearly capable of doing combat. Those kinds of newcomers is what Sakurai wants because they have stand-out characteristics that not many combat-based fighters would normally have. Note his statement about non-combatants way back in a Kotaku Smash 4 interview:
“An important thing is that the characters stand out from one another—for instance, we might wanna be able to take characters that aren't typically combat-based characters. So you might have a sword-based character, but other characters are not necessarily going to [have swords]. You're not gonna wanna focus on that sort of element, just so there's a distinction between all of the other combat-based characters.
They have to have something really unique that makes them stand apart from other characters in the game, and not limit yourself to characters that are just combat-based.”
And note how Sakurai researches deeply into gameplay step-by-step to find distinct traits of a character:
“The first thing is to take an idea. For example, imagine a game and character within that game. Take a character such as the villager in Animal Crossing. The next process is think about that character's role in their game and then the structure of the game we're making. How do those work together with each other? What kind of interesting things can you do within the structure of the game? And then if you were to actually implement that character, how would the end result be, how it works with other elements of the game?”
The thorough research Sakurai does to find a character's potential even in non-combatant Nintendo franchises is why I continue to be affirmative with Isabelle for my Smash Ultimate predictions. I am confident Sakurai will find Isabelle to be a fighter with potential. Sakurai might take notable importance in making characters faithful in characterization for Smash gameplay, but Isabelle being characterized "pacifist in argument" would not be an issue that would affect the whole picture. If anything took precedent for Sakurai when it comes to deciding characters for Smash, it would be him looking at gameplay potential first. He would look past the "peaceful" issue in the same way he did for Villager and Wii Fit Trainer in SSB4 and look into the character's role to discover Isabelle's potential. Gameplay would ultimately win out over a small characterization detail. If anything, her being characterized as "pacifist" in the AC games would only make her more stand-out as a newcomer. If Nintendo had no problems with putting Isabelle in situations where she could be able to wreck opponents like in Mario Kart, I doubt Sakurai would find her being "pacifist" to be a big issue.
Once Sakurai researches New Leaf and finds methods to integrate Isabelle’s characterization and mayor gameplay into a very fun play-style, I feel Sakurai will find her to be a fighter with great potential. I think Isabelle is one of the most obvious newcomers that will be in this Smash. There is the slim possibility that she might be viewed as not unique by Sakurai and be relegated to being Echo Fighter too, but I highly doubt that, given what Sakurai had said about non-combatant newcomers and the distinct traits/gameplay mechanics Isabelle can offer from her home game.
Given Sakurai’s experience with working on non-combatant fighters like Villager and Wii Fit Trainer, I feel very sure that Sakurai can accomplish and create a moveset for Isabelle that would make her a unique fighter. Most might not be able to spot the potential, but looking into Isabelle’s characterization/role in Animal Crossing: New Leaf gives away the answer. Her move-set potential can easily be found in the mayor gameplay of New Leaf. Isabelle's role in Animal Crossing: New Leaf is being a secretary/assistant that helps the villager mayor (the player) with duty management.
At the start, she helps the player that just moved in town by offering advice and making them the mayor, guiding players to earn a development permit, which allows the new mayor to enact new town laws and enable public work projects to built around town. Isabelle also helps the player with the new actions the mayor can do as well. One big part of the mayor gameplay that would be used in Smash gameplay are Public Works Projects, which has Isabelle placing town objects around the environment to gain stage control.
Isabelle would be placing town structures such as fountains, clock posts, buildings (like cafes) that serve as a primary method of defense. These town structures are automatically built over time through construction zones, but they can be easily crushed by opponents if Isabelle does not keep foes at bay. Once construction is complete, the town structure becomes Isabelle's big advantage. Each town structure has various effects on Isabelle and the opponent. Fountains have wind-box effects for the opponents.
Clock-posts can freeze opponents for a small period of time every time 12 noon is quickly reached. Cafe buildings serve as a healing zone for Isabelle. These constructed objects can be destroyed, but have bigger defense than construction zones. Isabelle can lengthen the time of the town structure's effect and increase defense by holding down the B-button when starting to place structures, but at the cost of longer construction. The more objects Isabelle strategically places on the stage, the more advantages Isabelle has to overwhelm the opponent.
Would this move-set/play-style idea be considered forced like people suggest when move-sets are brought up for Isabelle? I do not believe so. As long as there is source material from the character’s tools, role, characterization and personality from their respective games, that would be enough for Sakurai to spark ideas for a play-style. Taking move-set ideas based on what Isabelle does in the Animal Crossing games is not a forced idea. Only when a character does not offer distinct characteristics, gameplay ideas, and personality compared to the current Smash Bros. roster requiring more creative liberties than the source material gives can a idea be considered forced. Isabelle does not have this problem, as her role in Animal Crossing: New Leaf provides enough instant inspiration.
I think the difference between creating a move-set for Villager and assembling a move-set for Isabelle is the clear theme, characterization, and personality. The villager in Animal Crossing does not have any clear, appealing characteristics that would immediately set a notable template for a move-set, requiring more creative thought and research to assemble a good move-set. Isabelle has a clear, stand-out trait of being a kind assistant managing mayor tasks for me to immediately see her as a unique fighter with potential. It allows the assembling of creating original move ideas for these characters to feel less restrictive and more playful. The least a newcomer needs is a clear theme, a distinct type of combat that has yet to be seen in Smash.
The theme of a town object-builder has not been seen as a fleshed out fighter in Smash. That theme is sufficable enough for Sakurai to work on a good move-set for Isabelle. To think that Sakurai would give up on implementing non-combatant newcomers like Isabelle is underestimating his creativity, especially with Sakurai noting the importance of seeking out newcomers beyond the obvious fighters that are clearly capable of doing combat. Those kinds of newcomers is what Sakurai wants because they have stand-out characteristics that not many combat-based fighters would normally have. Note his statement about non-combatants way back in a Kotaku Smash 4 interview:
“An important thing is that the characters stand out from one another—for instance, we might wanna be able to take characters that aren't typically combat-based characters. So you might have a sword-based character, but other characters are not necessarily going to [have swords]. You're not gonna wanna focus on that sort of element, just so there's a distinction between all of the other combat-based characters.
They have to have something really unique that makes them stand apart from other characters in the game, and not limit yourself to characters that are just combat-based.”
And note how Sakurai researches deeply into gameplay step-by-step to find distinct traits of a character:
“The first thing is to take an idea. For example, imagine a game and character within that game. Take a character such as the villager in Animal Crossing. The next process is think about that character's role in their game and then the structure of the game we're making. How do those work together with each other? What kind of interesting things can you do within the structure of the game? And then if you were to actually implement that character, how would the end result be, how it works with other elements of the game?”
The thorough research Sakurai does to find a character's potential even in non-combatant Nintendo franchises is why I continue to be affirmative with Isabelle for my Smash Ultimate predictions. I am confident Sakurai will find Isabelle to be a fighter with potential. Sakurai might take notable importance in making characters faithful in characterization for Smash gameplay, but Isabelle being characterized "pacifist in argument" would not be an issue that would affect the whole picture. If anything took precedent for Sakurai when it comes to deciding characters for Smash, it would be him looking at gameplay potential first. He would look past the "peaceful" issue in the same way he did for Villager and Wii Fit Trainer in SSB4 and look into the character's role to discover Isabelle's potential. Gameplay would ultimately win out over a small characterization detail. If anything, her being characterized as "pacifist" in the AC games would only make her more stand-out as a newcomer. If Nintendo had no problems with putting Isabelle in situations where she could be able to wreck opponents like in Mario Kart, I doubt Sakurai would find her being "pacifist" to be a big issue.
Once Sakurai researches New Leaf and finds methods to integrate Isabelle’s characterization and mayor gameplay into a very fun play-style, I feel Sakurai will find her to be a fighter with great potential. I think Isabelle is one of the most obvious newcomers that will be in this Smash. There is the slim possibility that she might be viewed as not unique by Sakurai and be relegated to being Echo Fighter too, but I highly doubt that, given what Sakurai had said about non-combatant newcomers and the distinct traits/gameplay mechanics Isabelle can offer from her home game.
I believe that Elma was highly considered as the promotional candidate for Smash 4 DLC. She already held great gameplay potential and her game came out around the time Sakurai was considering making a character from an already represented franchise that was getting a game around 2015. I feel it was a competition between Corrin and Elma, but with Corrin edging the win due to the gameplay potential and Sakurai likely wanting to push his favorite series more.
That said, I believe that Sakurai played Xenoblade X in 2015 around the time when Smash DLC was being developed and likely loved the gameplay/world building (Sakurai plays a lot of games during his free time and often delves into great gameplay/game design in Famitsu columns, even during Smash Switch development. I would like to note XC2 and Stardew Valley as recent examples). His potential love for the game could have influenced Sakurai to consider Elma for the next Smash’s project plan in 2015.
Elma in particular is very unique in that she utilizes an interchangeable weapon that can switching from dual guns to dual swords. Her weapons can be changed via special to give her a different set of standard ground/aerial attacks. The attacks for dual guns have weaker knock-back and melee range, but has long range projectiles. The dual swords cannot hit as far as dual guns, but they deal bigger knock-back and damage with decent melee range.
The class Elma belongs to is of the Fullmetal Jaguar class, which excels in evasion/accuracy and has set of skills special to her such as Shadowstrike and Ghostwalker. All of these options for a move-set would make her play-style very distinct, as she would not only be a quick user akin to a fighter like Sheik, but also have a plethora of melee/range options at her disposal to keep her opponents guessing on what play-style she will be utilizing next. In my opinion, this unique play-style that remains true to Xenoblade X would be enticing enough for Sakurai to implement her in Smash.
I believe Elma will be in, but there are a few cons that could go against her inclusion. Around Smash Switch’s project plan, Sakurai likely would have put a placeholder for Elma. But, here is the very interesting situation, Sakurai would have likely negotiated with Monolith Soft for Elma, could have faced possible conflict, with Monolith noting Sakurai that they were developing a Xenoblade sequel for the Nintendo NX, where Sakurai could have been shown very early gameplay concepts of Rex and Blades. With Sakurai possibly having this early information, there could be a wall to Elma’s inclusion that could favor Rex more for the 2nd Xenoblade newcomer spot due to the convenient situation being similar to Greninja in Smash 4.
But, it is very unlikely that both could get in due to Xenoblade 2 releasing way too late in 2017, as Sakurai will most likely give this franchise the FE treatment due to the franchise not being as big as Pokemon, giving a 6 month early/late period to consider a Xenoblade newcomer out of. Rex is a small obstacle to Elma than anything else. The only real concern that could exclude Elma is whether or not she would be in the final project plan. Elma would have likely been in early roster drafts for Smash Ultimate, but whether she will be in the first proposal that was made in December 2015 remains to be seen, since Xenoblade X's Japanese release could be seen as too late by then. Then again, Fates' international release was also accounted with Corrin's inclusion for Smash 4 DLC. Who knows? As of now, I see Elma as pretty likely.
In every Smash Bros. game since Melee, there is always a “surprise” character that gets added in the game. Those characters are Mr. Game & Watch, R.O.B, and Duck Hunt. All of them share one thing in common, representing an older, but significant part of Nintendo’s history. Mr. Game & Watch represents one of Nintendo’s first big successes in the video game market with the line of LCD handheld game devices they made in the 1980s. R.O.B. represents the rise of the video games in the U.S. thanks to Nintendo marketing the Robotic Operating Buddy along the NES as a “novel, advanced” toy. Duck Hunt represents the big success of the NES Zapper, whose game was widely known for the iconic laughing dog and being an pack-in alongside Super Mario Bros. for NES bundles. I like to call these types of newcomers as “historical surprises”.
With these three characters representing a major portion of NIntendo’s older history, what else is there left to add for historical surprises? After Duck Hunt’s addition in Smash 4, it is very difficult to find historical candidates that would match and represent the same calibur of impact as Duck Hunt, R.O.B., and Game & Watch. There are choices that many Smash fans previously brought up in pre-Smash 4 speculation such as Sheriff, Virtual Boy character, and Nester. But, there are problems with them.
Sheriff does represent Nintendo’s first video game character, but his game never had the same degree of impact in the video game industry as R.O.B. and Duck Hunt. A Virtual Boy character represents Nintendo’s biggest failure in history, which I highly doubt Sakurai would want to add. Nester, while having the same impact as Duck Hunt and R.O.B. with the magazine of Nintendo Power, is not as globally recognized in Japan/Europe for Sakurai to consider it. In a process of elimination, the only newcomer choice left that I feel would best fill in the historical surprise role would be a character based on Nintendo’s beginning, Hanafuda.
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Hanafuda (Translated as “flower cards”) are Japanese playing cards used to play a multitude of games like Koi Koi and Go-Stop. This was the very first product manufactured by Nintendo way back in 1889. Before the debut of Hanafuda, many kinds of playing cards were banned in Japan due to the Western influences of Japanese card games and the surge of Christian missionaries from Europe.
For the Hanafuda creator, Fusajiro Yamauchi, to get around the card problem, he would have to replace the numbers in his cards with Japanese painted art that represented the twelve months of the year. The Japanese government banned Hanafuda eventually. But around the late 1800s, playing cards were no longer banned. Yamauchi could finally create a legal business to sell his Hanafuda products, creating a new company, Nintendo Koppai (The original name of Nintendo before it was simplified decades later.)
The Hanafuda cards by Nintendo grew to become a huge hit in Japan, which led to partnerships with Disney and developing other classic Japanese/Western card games for their business. The experience Nintendo had with selling Hanafuda eventually led them forming a VERY successful business in toys, and eventually producing a business for video games that Nintendo is globally known for today.
With Hanafuda playing a MAJOR key role in Nintendo’s history, Sakurai might consider the idea of creating an original character heavily influenced by Hanafuda for the next historical surprise newcomer. Hanafuda might not be very video game related as G&W, R.O.B., and Duck Hunt, but I feel that its significant importance to Nintendo would be enough for Sakurai to be comfortable with the idea.
So, how can you form a character out of playing cards? There are MANY possible solutions to this:
1. Using Napoleon from Nintendo’s most famous Hanafuda deck.
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With the Daitouryou deck featuring Napoleon being the most popular Hanafuda variant, Sakurai could use this historical figure as the basis for the Hanafuda character.
2. Using the tengu from Nintendo's second most popular Hanafuda's deck.
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Although this variant of the Hanafuda deck is not as popular as the Napoleon one, the tengu has one advantage that Napoleon does not have. One, tengus being more significant to the origin of Nintendo and Hanafuda in general. Two, the tengu’s Japanese cultural relations that would fit in more than a French emperor using Japanese cards for battle.
3. Going more out-there and giving the Hanafuda deck limbs for movement.
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This solution is a very unlikely scenario, but giving a Hanafuda deck arms and legs would better fit in Smash with the Hanafuda character having a crazy wacky design.
What would be the moveset theme and playstyle for a Hanafuda character be? To get a general grasp of the idea I will explain it in a Smash 4 project proposal way:
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A Hanafuda character would be a very unique fighter with it utilizing hanafuda cards to summon environmental objects, tools, and animals from the card art as the primary form of attacking. Its playstyle would involve long-range summoning attacks to keep opponents at bay.
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The only big competition a Hanafuda character will have to face for a historical surprise addition would be a character based on Nintendo toys made in the 1960s. Of all the potential candidates that represent an integral part of Nintendo’s long history, a 1960s toy character makes the most sense after Hanafuda’s addition. Although, without a definitive mascot or character to represent these toys, creating a character out of 1960s toys might be harder for Sakurai to imagine and he might go with Hanafuda instead. Ultimately, who he chooses as the historical surprise for Smash will depend on what Sakurai sees as having more playful gameplay potential. Both have great potential to me, but Sakurai might have a different perspective otherwise.
With a 1960’s toys character being potential competition, I say a Hanafuda character’s chances are 50/50. I believe there will be a “historical surprise” in this Smash, and the odds of Sakurai creating a character out of Hanafuda are way better now with G&W, R.O.B., and Duck Hunt no longer being major competition. The Hanafuda cards Nintendo made way back are an integral part of the company’s history. I feel such historical importance will be represented via character. With Hanafuda being distinct culturally and providing gameplay potential as a card summoner, I feel confident in banking on a Hanafuda character for Smash Ultimate. I do not believe the possibility of Smash Ultimate having a smaller newcomer pool than Smash 4's base newcomers will prevent his inclusion. It is hard to imagine Sakurai getting rid of historical surprises at this point.
With these three characters representing a major portion of NIntendo’s older history, what else is there left to add for historical surprises? After Duck Hunt’s addition in Smash 4, it is very difficult to find historical candidates that would match and represent the same calibur of impact as Duck Hunt, R.O.B., and Game & Watch. There are choices that many Smash fans previously brought up in pre-Smash 4 speculation such as Sheriff, Virtual Boy character, and Nester. But, there are problems with them.
Sheriff does represent Nintendo’s first video game character, but his game never had the same degree of impact in the video game industry as R.O.B. and Duck Hunt. A Virtual Boy character represents Nintendo’s biggest failure in history, which I highly doubt Sakurai would want to add. Nester, while having the same impact as Duck Hunt and R.O.B. with the magazine of Nintendo Power, is not as globally recognized in Japan/Europe for Sakurai to consider it. In a process of elimination, the only newcomer choice left that I feel would best fill in the historical surprise role would be a character based on Nintendo’s beginning, Hanafuda.
Hanafuda (Translated as “flower cards”) are Japanese playing cards used to play a multitude of games like Koi Koi and Go-Stop. This was the very first product manufactured by Nintendo way back in 1889. Before the debut of Hanafuda, many kinds of playing cards were banned in Japan due to the Western influences of Japanese card games and the surge of Christian missionaries from Europe.
For the Hanafuda creator, Fusajiro Yamauchi, to get around the card problem, he would have to replace the numbers in his cards with Japanese painted art that represented the twelve months of the year. The Japanese government banned Hanafuda eventually. But around the late 1800s, playing cards were no longer banned. Yamauchi could finally create a legal business to sell his Hanafuda products, creating a new company, Nintendo Koppai (The original name of Nintendo before it was simplified decades later.)
The Hanafuda cards by Nintendo grew to become a huge hit in Japan, which led to partnerships with Disney and developing other classic Japanese/Western card games for their business. The experience Nintendo had with selling Hanafuda eventually led them forming a VERY successful business in toys, and eventually producing a business for video games that Nintendo is globally known for today.
With Hanafuda playing a MAJOR key role in Nintendo’s history, Sakurai might consider the idea of creating an original character heavily influenced by Hanafuda for the next historical surprise newcomer. Hanafuda might not be very video game related as G&W, R.O.B., and Duck Hunt, but I feel that its significant importance to Nintendo would be enough for Sakurai to be comfortable with the idea.
So, how can you form a character out of playing cards? There are MANY possible solutions to this:
1. Using Napoleon from Nintendo’s most famous Hanafuda deck.
With the Daitouryou deck featuring Napoleon being the most popular Hanafuda variant, Sakurai could use this historical figure as the basis for the Hanafuda character.
2. Using the tengu from Nintendo's second most popular Hanafuda's deck.
Although this variant of the Hanafuda deck is not as popular as the Napoleon one, the tengu has one advantage that Napoleon does not have. One, tengus being more significant to the origin of Nintendo and Hanafuda in general. Two, the tengu’s Japanese cultural relations that would fit in more than a French emperor using Japanese cards for battle.
3. Going more out-there and giving the Hanafuda deck limbs for movement.
This solution is a very unlikely scenario, but giving a Hanafuda deck arms and legs would better fit in Smash with the Hanafuda character having a crazy wacky design.
What would be the moveset theme and playstyle for a Hanafuda character be? To get a general grasp of the idea I will explain it in a Smash 4 project proposal way:
A Hanafuda character would be a very unique fighter with it utilizing hanafuda cards to summon environmental objects, tools, and animals from the card art as the primary form of attacking. Its playstyle would involve long-range summoning attacks to keep opponents at bay.
(Major credit and props to
Pacack
for creating this moveset)
Entrance Animation: General outline of character appears first, followed by the outline of the details, ending with Hanafuda being painted in. (Referencing that all of the hanafuda cards were originally handcrafted by painting onto mulberry tree bark) OR A hanafuda card box drops from the sky and opens to release a Hanafuda character.
Properties: Height is roughly between Charizard’s and Samus’ heights. About as wide as Snake or Link at the widest point. Is somewhat lighter than Robin.
Jab Combo: Hits with pine branch for small damage. Only an AA combo, rather than an AAA combo. Does approximately 4% damage for the first hit and 6% for the second. (Based off of basic pine cards from the December suit, only a double combo because there are only two commons in said suit)
Side-Tilt: Kicks the ground and sends a flurry of maple leaves forward. Has good range and may trip the opponent. Does only 1% damage per leaf, but there are several leaves. Does not have the best knockback. (Based off of the October Maple leaf commons)
Up-Tilt: Waves some bush clover branches in a sweeping motion over his head (from front to back). Decen knockback that can be used for combos. Does about 9% damage. (Based off of the July bush clover commons)
Down-Tilt: Causes a small peony bush to sprout directly in front of Hanafuda (butterflies fly out from it as well, but do not do damage or interact with the opponent). Sends opponents almost directly upwards. Does approximately 11% damage and good knockback, but has some frame lag. (Based off of the June peony commons)
Dash Attack: Pulls out a chrysanthemum bouquet and swings it as he dashes (Based off of the September chrysanthemums)
Up Smash: Thrusts an umbrella into the air and opens it (as it opens, a frog comes out for purely for humor’s sake). Does good damage and knockback, but has some beginning lag. (Based off of Rain Man’s umbrella and frog)
Side Smash: Swings a fairly bulky paulownia branch forward at the opponent. Heavy damage and knockback. (Based off of the January paulownias)
Down Smash: Makes tall susuki grass sprout from the ground on one side of him and a small willow tree on the other. The grass sends opponents diagonally up and away from Hanafuda, while the willow simply hits them upwards. (Based off of the susuki grass and willow common cards)
Neutral Aerial: Hanafuda spins around (somewhat like Zelda's or Ness' nairs) in the air and irises fly out of his sleeves. Poor knockback and decent damage, but good range. (Based off of the May irises)
Forward Aerial: Swings a large plain ribbon in front of him in an arch shape. It can hit easily, but is not very powerful. (Based off of the ribbon cards)
Back Aerial: Snaps a large plain ribbon behind him like a whip. Hits very hard and with good range, but is extremely difficult to sweetspot. (Based off of the ribbon cards)
Up Aerial: Butterflies fly out from out of Hanafuda’s sleeves and go straight upwards. They are hard to sweetspot, but they provide a decent killing move. Does only 3% damage and minimal knockback when not sweetspotted, but does good damage with great knockback when they do.
Down Aerial: Hits whatever is in front of him with a plank from an eight plank bridge. Has spiking properties. (Based off of the May “animal” card)
Neutral Special: Throws poetry sake cup at the opponent. Does surprisingly high damage, but is very small and difficult to hit opponents with. (Based off of the September poetry sake cup “animal” wildcard)
Side Special: Summons a boar, deer, and butterflies that run quickly as a herd across the stage until they disappears. High damage and knockback, but can be easily avoided, as they will only run straight. (Based off of the July, October, and June animal cards and Ino-Shika-Cho group.)
Up Special: Summons multiple types of birds that fly sporadically upwards and grabs onto a crane that lifts Hanafuda about as efficiently as Pit’s up special. Damage done to opponents depends on the birds that hit them. (Based off of the various animal cards of January, February, April, August, and November.)
Down Special: Holds up the jinmaku (camp curtain) to absorb enemy projectiles. Does not deflect or heal the user. (based off of the March “bright” card)
Grab: Wisteria vines shoot out from Hanafuda's sleeves and ensnare the opponent. (based off of the wisteria cards)
Grab-Pummel: The vines repeatedly hit the opponent.
Forward Throw: Hanafuda throws the opponent with the vines and whips them quickly.
Back Throw: Hanafuda throws the opponent over his shoulder.
Up Throw: Hanafuda throws his opponent directly over his head and smacks him with the blue ribbon. (Reference to the blue ribbons)
Down Throw: Hanafuda releases his opponent and slaps them into the ground with the poetry ribbon. (Reference to the red poetry ribbons)
Final Smash: Summons Chinese Phoenix which attacks the entire stage with fire. The stage’s background becomes red with a completely white circle as the moon as this is happening. (Reference to the August and December Bright cards)
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Pacack
for creating this moveset)Entrance Animation: General outline of character appears first, followed by the outline of the details, ending with Hanafuda being painted in. (Referencing that all of the hanafuda cards were originally handcrafted by painting onto mulberry tree bark) OR A hanafuda card box drops from the sky and opens to release a Hanafuda character.
Properties: Height is roughly between Charizard’s and Samus’ heights. About as wide as Snake or Link at the widest point. Is somewhat lighter than Robin.
Jab Combo: Hits with pine branch for small damage. Only an AA combo, rather than an AAA combo. Does approximately 4% damage for the first hit and 6% for the second. (Based off of basic pine cards from the December suit, only a double combo because there are only two commons in said suit)
Side-Tilt: Kicks the ground and sends a flurry of maple leaves forward. Has good range and may trip the opponent. Does only 1% damage per leaf, but there are several leaves. Does not have the best knockback. (Based off of the October Maple leaf commons)
Up-Tilt: Waves some bush clover branches in a sweeping motion over his head (from front to back). Decen knockback that can be used for combos. Does about 9% damage. (Based off of the July bush clover commons)
Down-Tilt: Causes a small peony bush to sprout directly in front of Hanafuda (butterflies fly out from it as well, but do not do damage or interact with the opponent). Sends opponents almost directly upwards. Does approximately 11% damage and good knockback, but has some frame lag. (Based off of the June peony commons)
Dash Attack: Pulls out a chrysanthemum bouquet and swings it as he dashes (Based off of the September chrysanthemums)
Up Smash: Thrusts an umbrella into the air and opens it (as it opens, a frog comes out for purely for humor’s sake). Does good damage and knockback, but has some beginning lag. (Based off of Rain Man’s umbrella and frog)
Side Smash: Swings a fairly bulky paulownia branch forward at the opponent. Heavy damage and knockback. (Based off of the January paulownias)
Down Smash: Makes tall susuki grass sprout from the ground on one side of him and a small willow tree on the other. The grass sends opponents diagonally up and away from Hanafuda, while the willow simply hits them upwards. (Based off of the susuki grass and willow common cards)
Neutral Aerial: Hanafuda spins around (somewhat like Zelda's or Ness' nairs) in the air and irises fly out of his sleeves. Poor knockback and decent damage, but good range. (Based off of the May irises)
Forward Aerial: Swings a large plain ribbon in front of him in an arch shape. It can hit easily, but is not very powerful. (Based off of the ribbon cards)
Back Aerial: Snaps a large plain ribbon behind him like a whip. Hits very hard and with good range, but is extremely difficult to sweetspot. (Based off of the ribbon cards)
Up Aerial: Butterflies fly out from out of Hanafuda’s sleeves and go straight upwards. They are hard to sweetspot, but they provide a decent killing move. Does only 3% damage and minimal knockback when not sweetspotted, but does good damage with great knockback when they do.
Down Aerial: Hits whatever is in front of him with a plank from an eight plank bridge. Has spiking properties. (Based off of the May “animal” card)
Neutral Special: Throws poetry sake cup at the opponent. Does surprisingly high damage, but is very small and difficult to hit opponents with. (Based off of the September poetry sake cup “animal” wildcard)
Side Special: Summons a boar, deer, and butterflies that run quickly as a herd across the stage until they disappears. High damage and knockback, but can be easily avoided, as they will only run straight. (Based off of the July, October, and June animal cards and Ino-Shika-Cho group.)
Up Special: Summons multiple types of birds that fly sporadically upwards and grabs onto a crane that lifts Hanafuda about as efficiently as Pit’s up special. Damage done to opponents depends on the birds that hit them. (Based off of the various animal cards of January, February, April, August, and November.)
Down Special: Holds up the jinmaku (camp curtain) to absorb enemy projectiles. Does not deflect or heal the user. (based off of the March “bright” card)
Grab: Wisteria vines shoot out from Hanafuda's sleeves and ensnare the opponent. (based off of the wisteria cards)
Grab-Pummel: The vines repeatedly hit the opponent.
Forward Throw: Hanafuda throws the opponent with the vines and whips them quickly.
Back Throw: Hanafuda throws the opponent over his shoulder.
Up Throw: Hanafuda throws his opponent directly over his head and smacks him with the blue ribbon. (Reference to the blue ribbons)
Down Throw: Hanafuda releases his opponent and slaps them into the ground with the poetry ribbon. (Reference to the red poetry ribbons)
Final Smash: Summons Chinese Phoenix which attacks the entire stage with fire. The stage’s background becomes red with a completely white circle as the moon as this is happening. (Reference to the August and December Bright cards)
The only big competition a Hanafuda character will have to face for a historical surprise addition would be a character based on Nintendo toys made in the 1960s. Of all the potential candidates that represent an integral part of Nintendo’s long history, a 1960s toy character makes the most sense after Hanafuda’s addition. Although, without a definitive mascot or character to represent these toys, creating a character out of 1960s toys might be harder for Sakurai to imagine and he might go with Hanafuda instead. Ultimately, who he chooses as the historical surprise for Smash will depend on what Sakurai sees as having more playful gameplay potential. Both have great potential to me, but Sakurai might have a different perspective otherwise.
With a 1960’s toys character being potential competition, I say a Hanafuda character’s chances are 50/50. I believe there will be a “historical surprise” in this Smash, and the odds of Sakurai creating a character out of Hanafuda are way better now with G&W, R.O.B., and Duck Hunt no longer being major competition. The Hanafuda cards Nintendo made way back are an integral part of the company’s history. I feel such historical importance will be represented via character. With Hanafuda being distinct culturally and providing gameplay potential as a card summoner, I feel confident in banking on a Hanafuda character for Smash Ultimate. I do not believe the possibility of Smash Ultimate having a smaller newcomer pool than Smash 4's base newcomers will prevent his inclusion. It is hard to imagine Sakurai getting rid of historical surprises at this point.
When I witnessed the de-confirmation of Takamaru as an Assist Trophy and Balloon Fighter being a part of Villager’s recovery special again through E3 footage of Smash Ultimate, I was utterly astonished. I thought those two had the best chance to get in as the retro newcomer pick. It took me awhile to process the news, and I had wondered about which retro newcomer Sakurai had picked if Takamaru was not the one planned for the 2015 project plan. I looked into the remaining retro choices like Excitebiker, Mach Rider, and Prince Sable, quickly dismissing the latter two, only seeing the first choice as the only plausible character. But then, I witnessed a new, but obviously fake Smash leak featuring Lip that happened in the Smash Ultimate Discussion thread. I suddenly started to create connections to Lip and other factors Sakurai stated to be important when he included retros like Pit/Little Mac. I have an unusual amount of confidence for Lip and I want to explain why I have a moderate degree of faith that she will be in Smash Ultimate.
Since Super Smash Bros. Brawl, popularity has been a big factor towards the inclusion of retro newcomers. Pit being in Brawl was the result of being the most requested retro newcomer in America and Japan, noting the foreshadowing in Pit’s trophy description in Melee. This hint led to many fan theories, which caused the support for Pit erupt in a huge scale. Little Mac’s addition in Smash 4 was the result of him being the most popular retro in the West, with Punch Out Wii’s release and the VGTribune poll that was sent to Sakurai at the time of project proposal helping Mac’s inclusion. I think it is safe to say that popularity in the West and Japan will contribute to a retro newcomer’s addition for this Smash. With the Smash Ballot allowing a large number of fans to vote, who could have been the most popular retro request? With the more casual Smash fans likely campaigning for third-parties/Nintendo newcomers like Bayonetta, Geno, Ridley, Waluigi, and K. Rool, it is hard to find anything concrete that would suggest a specific retro being very popular in the West and Japan. Fortunately, I can find out which retro newcomer was extremely popular during the ballot voting period through a process of elimination.
Researching a number of websites like Smashboards, Gamefaqs, and Twitter, I did not find much notable campaigning for Excitebiker, Mach Rider, Prince of Sable, and Takamaru. However, there was one single retro who I have seen consistently campaigned in both the West and Japan. That being Lip. Upon looking into Lip's support during the Smash ballot period, Lip was the only retro I have seen with a truly dedicated following that parallels the likes of the dedicated Daisy fan-base in many ways. As someone who pays attention to retro newcomer support fanbases closely, I know for sure that not even Takamaru and Prince Sable had much discussion and fan-dedication as Lip. I have seen supporters of Lip from the West/East that have passionately made fan art, several videos, and MANY moveset ideas for the flower fairy, with a numerous amount of hardcore PDP fans campaigning a revival of Panel de Pon and Lip being playable in Smash Bros. This following might have been big enough to vote in a grander scale than Takamaru, possibly making Lip the most voted retro in the West and Japan. Lip is the only fanbase I know that would be capable of accomplishing a notable feat in votes.
Now assuming that Lip was the most popular retro, would her being from a Japan-only game stop Sakurai from including the character? Personally, I do not think Panel de Pon’s obscurity would be a huge problem. Sakurai loves his retro characters, especially with Japan-only games. He has shown his love of these titles with Assist Trophies like Takamaru and Sable, trophies like Ayumi Tachibana and Diskun, remixes of Lip’s theme and Mysterious Murasame Castle, and, at one point, was willing enough to make characters from a Japan only franchise playable in the form of Marth and Roy. Hypothetically, If Sakurai saw the huge ballot popularity for Lip, I believe he would immediately jump at the chance. Even if her game was Japan-only, I feel that worldwide demand would be able to make up for her obscurity. Sakurai personally considered Panel de Pon to be a masterpiece, and this alone makes me certain that he loves the the franchise. I would not be very surprised if this quickly enticed him to make Lip a playable character. Lip’s gameplay potential and character individuality would also be a factor Sakurai would be attracted by, with her being a magical flower fairy who would be able to utilize Panel de Pon puzzle gameplay mechanics and the flower effects of Lip’s Stick for a very unique moveset. With these positives going for Lip, I feel that she will be the next retro choice chosen by Sakurai.
Of course, there is the real possibility that Lip’s ballot popularity could have been less than Prince of Sable or Excitebiker. But, I personally doubt it at this point. With two of the biggest retro choices out of the running (Takamaru and Balloon Fighter), the only retro newcomer I feel pretty confident of being the most popular is Lip. Here is hoping my assessment is correct. Lip’s inclusion would do wonders and would help Intelligent Systems finally make a new Panel de Pon game, which would be a blessing for me.
Rhythm Heaven is among one of the biggest Nintendo franchises in Japan. Ever since the franchise's late debut on the Gameboy Advance's life cycle in 2006, the franchise has gained a large, Japanese fanbase. It continued to grow bigger with the debut of the sequel Rhythm Heaven on the Nintendo DS in 2008. Due to the success of the first game in Japan, the sequel managed to receive a global localization. The DS iteration managed to sell over 3 million units total, which marked the peak of the franchise. Rhythm Heaven continued to perform greatly with the Wii sequel (Rhythm Heaven Fever) and the 3DS sequel (Rhythm Heaven: Megamix). The cult fanbase for Rhythm Heaven outside of Japan grew greatly around the time of Fever, spawning hundreds of fan-remixes and memes on YouTube thanks to the mini-game of Ringside. The dedication of Rhythm Heaven fan-content still happens to this day. With all of the fan-content and Japan success, you would think a Rhythm Heaven character would get in Smash by now. Well, not exactly, but there is a ray of hope that a RH character was planned way back in Smash 4.
Before E3 2014 came, there was a Gematsu leak that would leak a second batch of newcomers for the roster. One of these choices were the Chorus Kids. Since the leak, there have been many debates and controversy on the inclusion of Chorus Kids. The negative reception soon spread like wildfire once they were not present in Smash 4's base game and DLC selection. With such reception, the Smash fanbase soon grew silent on the possibility of Chorus Kids, even in Smash Ultimate speculation to this day. But, ever since that leak came, there has been a growing amount of supporters for multiple Rhythm Heaven characters in general. Fan-content would soon multiply thereafter. Thanks to the leak, a bigger Rhythm Heaven fanbase outside of Japan soon sprouted. With Smash Ultimate nearby, now would be the best time to include a Rhythm Heaven character.
I am of the specific camp that believes the Gematsu Leak was the original roster draft for Smash 4 before changes got made due to 3DS limitations or moveset potential matters (Robin chosen over Chrom for example). I also believe that due to 3DS limitations, it kept ‘duo’ characters like Chorus Kids and Ice Climbers from getting in the game. With the hidden files of a Rhythm Heaven symbol and Sneaky Spirit in Smash Run, it all points to Chorus Kids’ potential inclusion in Smash.
Sakurai already sees merit in Rhythm Heaven getting a character. He already saw the potential of utilizing these specific characters, likely utilizing moves inspired by several rhythm mini-games with a play-style that involves rhythmic timing. The main question is mostly if technical difficulties will become an issue again. I doubt it will this time. I also highly doubt that any other character from RH would get in. Because if there were going to be a RH character, Sakurai would have chosen another candidate like Karate Man to be in Smash 4 by now. The lack of a RH character in Smash 4’s base game and DLC selection suggests to me that Sakurai wants to keep the character idea of Chorus Kids and try to make them work in the Switch version of Smash this time around. Sakurai likely had a full move-set concept of the Chorus Kids way back in Smash 4, based on this article here:
"Nintendo Dream: When not you are not developing and there is a new title or character released, you are not thinking about “How about that one in the next Smash Bros?”, right?
Masahiro Sakurai: Absolutely not! I’m always thinking that doing Smash Bros. again will be impossible. Impossible, impossible…is what I always think, but I ended up making it again (laughs). But once I decide to do it, I’m very fast about creating moves and such. For example Greninja, even before his name was decided I received several illustrations. I took them home in the evening and around midnight I had already done all his actions, normal moves, special moves and pose-pictures and sent them around asking “What do you think?”.
Nintendo Dream: That’s incredible speed! By the way, when deciding on which characters to use, are you looking into unreleased new games?
Masahiro Sakurai: At the very beginning I did that. This time our project-proposal is dated May 2012, at that time all characters were decided already. Then as production moves on we will say “We won’t put that character in” and cut out low-priority-characters."
Assuming he made concepts for move-sets for every Smash 4 newcomer planned, I feel it is EXTREMELY likely that the Chorus Kids concept will be revisited to be implemented for Smash Ultimate (Basing it on the Gematsu leak being true). I personally think a Rhythm Heaven character is an inevitability, with Chorus Kids as the most likely candidate chosen to represent RH as a whole. With Rhythm Heaven’s staggering popularity/impact/sales during the DS era, the mini-games that gained a huge amount of parodies in meme culture, their massive gameplay potential with incorporating rhythm mini-games into a cohesive move-set, Smash Ultimate including Ice Climbers (Making multi-characters like Chorus Kids a possibility), and Megamix's JP release being nearby the time the first Smash Ultimate proposal in December 2015, now would be BEST time to include them.
With Vergeben’s Simon Belmont/Ridley leak on Gamefaqs having notable credibility, I figured that I would analyze Simon again. What is the main reason Sakurai wanted to add a Konami character in Smash Ultimate, despite the company’s incredibly awful treatment to Kojima during their restructure? I can only think of five possible reasons, one of them being personal impact. Sakurai has personal history with Castlevania since the vert first game on the NES, based on the statement he gave in the Sakurai x Nomura interview:
“For me personally, it was the year 1986, when games like The Legend of Zelda and Castlevania were released, and I experienced physically interactive games. They had a big impact on me.”
I feel that such personal impact with this iconic franchise would tempt him to consider a Castlevania character. Second, Simon's potentially massive ballot popularity. I have seen Simon Belmont constantly requested and campaigned in online forums since the ballot creation. Simon’s amount of votes could have convinced Sakurai enough at least consider the idea thoroughly. Third, the move-set potential Simon offers. Simon has a distinct weapon not primarily used by other Smash characters, which would be his whip. That and his assortment of different weapons like the throwing axe, holy water, and boomerang could have tempted Sakurai to make him playable.
Fourth, pure will. I think there would be no way Konami characters would be a consideration to Sakurai without getting past the Konami Kojima treatment. I feel two things would play into this. One, the strong likelihood that Kojima would want Snake back in Smash. Even back in Smash 4, he still wanted Snake to be in the game despite not being contacted by Sakurai to do negotiations. Metal Gear Solid is still Kojima’s baby, and I cannot imagine an event where Kojima would not want it to happen even in the hard circumstances. If Sakurai contacted him primarily for permission, Kojima would still say yes and possibly help Sakurai with his anger with Konami.
Fifth and most importantly, Sakurai wanting to have Smash be the #1 fighting game roster ever. Sakurai has managed to create an unbelievable roster for Smash 4 thanks to the third-party additions like Sonic, Megaman, Pac-Man, Ryu, Cloud, all big gaming icons in a single fighting game. With Smash 4 in specific, he wanted the 3DS/Wii U installment to be the best character game in the world. If he wanted to fill in the remaining bases for big third-parties like he stated in a Nintendo Dream interview, then he will have to get past Konami’s treatment and try to negotiate one of Konami’s big icons to truly make Smash the number one character game in the world.
In my perspective, with Konami’s possible restructuring in 2015 when the Smash Ultimate project plan was created, they would still be open and fair with the negotiation of Simon Belmont. Around this time, they previously brought a majority of their old library via Wii U eShop consistently throughout the years when other third-parties couldn’t and allowed their titles to be part of the NES Mini lineup. I personally think in 2015, Konami was free and available to make profitable business deals with Nintendo and Sakurai. All of these factors create an small opening in which Simon Belmont’s inclusion in Smash Bros. is very possible. Now with Snake confirmed to return, games that Vergeben's sources had that were confirmed at E3 2018, and Bomberman being an Assist Trophy, things are looking great for Simon in Smash now.
I did not think I would ever predict this character in my time of speculating newcomers for Smash Ultimate, but here I am, finding Leon a very plausible candidate. The main reason I did not consider him was because I personally never grew up with the Resident Evil games, as I immediately avoided horror games in general. I found third parties from mature franchises like Bayonetta super possible back in the Smash 4 DLC days, but never saw a Resident Evil character as a big possibility. It was not until I thought about Sakurai’s statement in a Nintendo Dream on there not being globally popular third parties left to add in Smash:
“—Final Fantasy VII (FFVII below) has never been released on a Nintendo console, so how did Cloud end up appearing in Smash?
Sakurai: Final Fantasy (FF below) is one of the few uniquely Japanese game series revered by players around the world. I think fans across the globe have hoped a character from one of those series would appear in Smash, so it was only a matter of time. At the same time, there are only so many big-name titles we can work with at this point—mainly because we’ve covered most of those bases. Aside from the major globally-recognized franchises already featured in Smash, there really aren’t that many left.”
Among the many possible third-party characters whose franchises are world-wide known, I could only think of Simon from Castlevania, Layton from Professor Layton, and Sora from Kingdom Hearts. Dragon Quest, Yo-kai Watch, and Monster Hunter never came to me as possible due to their franchises not being very successful in the West. I decided to research more on Capcom’s franchises after finding Monster Hunter implausible. When I saw Resident Evil’s global sales, it finally dawned on me. Resident Evil is one of the few uniquely Japanese third-party series that is massively successful in both Japan and West, with over 80 million sales under the franchise’s belt.
Not only that, but I recalled seeing numerous Resident Evil characters frequently and highly requested during pre-Smash 4 speculation and the ballot period, with names like Leon Kennedy, Jill Valentine, and Nemesis coming up as RE suggestions for many casual Smash fans. With Sakurai knowing about Resident Evil serving as the final coffin of my horror game bias, I have opened up to the possibility of a RE character. Not only would a Resident Evil character serve as a possible ballot candidate, but it would also be the perfect surprise Sakurai could ever think of. If Sakurai wanted to add third-party characters from globally recognized franchises for Smash Ultimate, a Resident Evil character would serve his needs greatly. The only questions that remain is figuring out who was the most requested RE character in the Smash Ballot and if the character’s use of realistic weapons could pose a major issue for Sakurai when it comes to age rating companies like CERO and ESRB.
When it comes to finding which Resident Evil character is most suggested by Smash fans, it all comes down to Jill Valentine and Leon Kennedy. From the polls I have seen, it seems like Leon was the most requested. When asking RE supporters about the reasons why Leon could have been requested more in the ballot, there was generally one primary reason. That being Leon’s game, Resident Evil 4, being most closely associated with Nintendo fans, as the franchise had a somewhat of a close history with Nintendo with titles such as Resident Evil: Revelations and Resident Evil 2 for the N64 coming to mind. Resident Evil 4 was the most impactful in Nintendo history, which could be why many casual Smash fans would have voted for Leon the most in the ballot. The reason I chose the most popular RE character was because Sakurai did a similar situation when deciding a Final Fantasy character for Smash, with Cloud being the most requested from fans according to Sakurai:
"Sakurai: This isn’t an exact number, but among the requests for a Final Fantasy character to appear in Smash, around ¼ to ⅓ of the requests we got from fans were for Cloud. [TN1] I really wanted to answer the desires of those fans, and even though I thought it would be impossible, I reached out anyway, just to try."
Now there is only one more matter to settle. Will Leon Kennedy’s use of real weaponry prevent Sakurai from adding the character? I do not believe this will be a problem. I personally think that Sakurai’s veteran experience with incorporating characters from mature titles in Smash like Snake and Bayonetta will help him find solutions into figuring out the right weaponry to use for Leon’s moveset. Sakurai has asked for several modifications of characters from many third-party developers and creators on what abilities and tools can a character utilize in Smash. With Capcom giving Sakurai the full freedom to modify characters like Mega Man and Ryu to translate them to Smash gameplay when needed, I feel VERY sure they will find a solution.
I feel strong about Sakurai finding a solution, especially when Hideki Kamiya, one of the creators of Leon Kennedy, would be absolutely willing to lend help with figuring out moves for Leon that stays true to his character, who previously let Sakurai modify Bayonetta back in the Smash 4 DLC days. Leon just has so much distinct moveset potential and characterization (with him rooting from the horror game genre coming to mind) that makes him a stand-out character from other Smash characters, that I think Sakurai would be immensely willing to get him in Smash in any way possible. Sakurai giving up on the RE character idea is very unlikely to happen, in my perspective.
Right now, I personally feel more confident about Leon Kennedy getting in than other third-parties at the moment. I feel more confident about Leon than even Simon Belmont, whom has Vergeben and personal history with Sakurai mainly backing up his inclusion. Leon is the character I think will be Smash Ultimate’s big third-party surprise, in the same vein as Snake and Cloud. I could be wrong, but with what Sakurai said about covering the bases with adding third-party characters from globally popular game franchises, how easy it is to negotiate with Capcom and Kamiya, and the moveset potential Leon can offer, I find it VERY hard to think that Leon will not be in this Smash after what I have learned. We will know in the coming months if my assessment is right.
Layton getting chosen for Smash Ultimate ultimately depends on how he did in the Smash Ballot. Sakurai will likely use the poll for reference to see which third-party candidates he could add. Fortunately, I think Layton likely ranked in the top 5, at least in the region of Europe. Layton back in Smash 4 speculation was among the most wanted newcomers, going as far being in the top 10 in a VGtribune poll that was sent to Sakurai during the Smash 4 project plan. I feel very confident that Layton ranked high in the ballot, due to the franchise’s immense popularity in Europe.
Because of his potentially high ballot rank in Europe, I think Sakurai will consider Layton for playability. In terms of moveset potential, he already has a high amount for Sakurai to dance his mind around with, basing on Layton’s gentlemanly characterization and puzzle gameplay elements. Professor Layton is one of the few franchises that helped the DS surge in popularity when the first three games came out, giving Layton the game history needed to qualify for Smash. One of the biggest Japanese third party companies ever, Level-5, has had a strong relationship with Nintendo for so many years ever since the first Layton game came out, with Nintendo helping out on localization and marketing. The relationship is so strong that I feel Level-5 and Nintendo would definitely agree on the idea of the professor being playable in Smash. Sakurai and Akihiro were at one point together in a gaming talk show in 2008. One of the show moderators said that he wanted him in Smash with his fencing sword, with Sakurai and the audience responding with a positive laugh.
It certainly shows that Sakurai knows about the franchise and Level-5 in general, and the familiarity brings a nice contribution to Layton’s chances. To note a recent interview, Hino is definitely open for collaborations when he was asked about crossovers with the Layton franchise. This is VERY true, especially with Level- 5’s other franchises like Youkai Watch, which that had a collaboration movie with Kitaro (the most well known, influential manga in Japan), crossed with Final Fantasy in YW3 and FFXIV, and had multiple anime crossovers with the YW mobile game. Although the degree of crossovers Layton had goes as far as Phoenix Wright, Level-5’s recent collaborations almost assures that the potential negotiations for Layton would go VERY smoothly.
What about Professor Layton's move-set potential? While it is true that the Layton games does not involve much combat, there are times in the game when Layton needs to use combat when it is absolutely necessary. Sakurai could definitely bring up his fencing sword for his main use of combat.
In fencing, there are a lot of defensive and counter strategies involved. Each of the players concentrate hard to strike the opponent’s target area without leaving themselves open to hitting. This can translate to his being a more defensive character that has a variety of ways to counter the opponent. Layton is known to think and solve puzzles in as many ways as he can, so it certainly stays true to his character while keeping him interesting and making him stand out from other characters currently in the game. He is also known to be a skilled craftsman, from creating a slot machine gun, to a catapult, to a hang glider. This weapons and tools provide a plethora of defensive strategies that would further distinguish Layton from other characters, making him a really good fit for Smash Ultimate.
I have seen many speculators point out that Layton as not being a huge enough gaming icon as an obstacle. I do not see "third-parties" being huge icons being an obstacle for Layton. What Sakurai sees as icons may not match what fans perceive to be. Sakurai thought Bayonetta was pretty significant in the action/hack & slash genre in this Famitsu column:
"When you talk about stylish action games, Bayonetta’s the name that always comes up. But, I don’t think there’s been a game that’s surpassed Bayonetta yet, though."
When Bayonetta was added as Smash 4 DLC years later after the post-Bayonetta column, the issue of her being a huge gaming icon as Cloud, Ryu, Mega Man, and Pac-Man did not impede her into becoming a character. What Sakurai considers as icons is not to the same degree as fans, with him looking into recent franchises that defined genres. Professor Layton is a recent, defining third-party franchise of the DS and 3DS era with 15 million copies sold as of 2013 for the puzzle genre. So Layton meets the qualifications as an icon for the genre he belongs to.
That being said, there is one tiny dilemma that I can see happening with these negotiations, that being Level-5 wanting the company to add a Youkai Watch character instead. But at this point of YW’s state in Japan and worldwide, I ultimately feel Layton will be the one chosen, especially when the Layton franchise has seen a recent major resurgence and focus on the franchise in the form of Lady Layton's game/anime and the professor’s international recognition in the gaming community. The only legitimate issue against his inclusion is the possibility of Sakurai limiting the number of potential 3rd party newcomers coming from unrepresented companies he could negotiate with such as Level-5, pouring most of his resources on making every veteran return for Smash Ultimate, sticking to Konami, SEGA, Capcom, Square Enix, and Namco to add third party characters from to save time/money. But with Level-5's relationship with Nintendo, I believe they will be able to make an open compromise that allows Layton in Smash and also giving benefits for both companies.
Because of Layton’s potentially high demand in Europe, the legacy he carried in the DS era, his distinct move-set potential, and the likeliness that Nintendo/Level-5 would agree on the idea of Layton being in Smash, it lines up to him being one of the most likely third party candidates for Smash Ultimate.
We need to look into the history of clones in Smash before discussing Dixie. Starting with Smash 64, Sakurai was able to create the four hidden characters only with the fact that he was able to reuse some movements and model parts of pre-existing characters from Nintendo and possibly from Dragon King concept of gameplay as well. Although 64’s cast of characters were all unique, it was not until Melee greatly expanded on clones. With Melee, Sakurai added last-minute clones mid-way in development to pad out the roster. This was the only time where Sakurai would come up with clone ideas during development. For Brawl, clone characters like Wolf/Toon Link were planned since the start. Note, for Brawl, Dixie was actually part of the cut character line-up based on file evidence, which indicates Sakurai already finding her merits to being a playable character.
For Smash 4, newcomer clones were not originally planned, but only the alternate costume to last-minute clones due to characteristic differences in attack function. The only notable way I can see new clones get in is through alt. costume to last-minute character or if they are clones planned from the start. This method is further enforced by the inclusion of Echo Fighters, of which the reasons of inclusion are most likely based on fan and ballot popularity. Dixie likely gained a notable degree of popularity at the time of the ballot alongside K. Rool to get considered. But whether she gets in as an Echo Fighter or as a semi-clone is entirely up to Sakurai and how much care he wants to put into making a faithful moveset to Dixie.
Sakurai could easily just slap in Dixie's Hair Flight and Bubblegum Gun as the only move changes and call it a day to do the minimum requirements of an echo fighter to please the fans. And with Diddy Kong no longer having tail moves based on his Smash Ultimate trailer, it feels more likely that Dixie will be in purely as an echo fighter than becoming a semi-clone. But maybe, Sakurai would be willing to make Dixie more distinct since Sakurai likely made a moveset for Dixie way back in Brawl's project plan, as movesets would likely been made for every newcomer at the time of planning. There is also the chance that Sakurai would not want to do further effort on new clones and focus on Echo Fighters being a wee bit distinct, but also feel Dixie being an echo fighter would be a disservice to the character, putting Dixie Kong in a middle-ground where she is excluded in Smash Ultimate altogether. Either way, I feel Dixie Kong has a good shot of getting in.
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Octolings are characters from Splatoon, debuting as enemies in the Splatoon’s single player campaign. Since Splatoon's big growth of popularity worldwide as a franchise (Especially in Japan), the Octolings have gained a massive fanbase mainly due to their appealing designs, spawning an immense amount of fan art, cosplay, and SFM videos. The Octolings were SO popular, that a colossal number of people requested of their playable appearance in the first Splatoon game, way before the Splatoon 2 Octo-Expansion was announced (I do not see the expansion as a positive factor for Octolings due to the release being too late in project planning). This playable Splatoon 1 appearance did not happen, but it goes to show how dedicated Octoling fans are.
This demand would likely lead to Sakurai adding them as Inkling costumes in Smash Ultimate. I theorize that Octolings were originally alternate costumes for the Inklings, but with how very distinguished the Octolings play-style are in Splatoon’s story, they became separate characters. Why do I note of the Octoling’s playstyle? I base that on this this article of Sakurai explaining Lucina’s addition over Chrom:
“Initially, I had considered including Lucina as one of Marth's alternate costumes. After all, she has a close relationship with him in FE:A. In such cases, even if two characters' names and voices differ, as long as they function the same way, I assign them as alternate costumes. The Wii Fit Trainers, Villagers, and Robin are examples of this setup.
However, even though Lucina shares her physical stats and techniques with Marth, the characteristics of their attacks differ. When two such similar characters function in an even slightly different manner, I give them a separate spot on the roster since that will affect battle records and whatnot. In that sense, you could say she was very lucky to join the fray!”
Octolings function and attack differently from Inklings in that their Elite counterparts are faster, more resilient, and deal more damage than regular Inklings. Since Octolings function different from Inklings, I feel that it will be one of the main reasons why Octolings will become separate fighters. But the biggest reason I think this decision could be made is because of the potential for unique differences.
Examining the first Splatoon’s roster of weapons alone, there is a gigantic, distinct selection of weapons to choose from that not even the Inklings cramming a fraction of the weapons in one moveset in Smash would be able to fill the entire gap out of. The options could entice Sakurai to make them separate and play around with weapons that Inklings are not utilizing. To share an example, here are multiple ways that Octolings can be differentiated:
-Octolings utilizing the faster Inkbrush, with Inklings having the slower Splat Roller.
-Octolings utilizing the quicker reloading multi-Burst Bomb, with Inklings having the standard Splat Bomb.
-Octolings utilizing the quick-charging Bamboozler 14, with Inklings using the standard Splat charger.
-Octolings utilizing the high rate Splash-o-matic, with Inklings using the standard Splattershot.
Basically, Octolings would have a more aggressive, quicker playstyle than Inklings. Of course, there is the other possibility that the changes would be minor and disappointing like with Dark Pit and Lucina in Smash 4. But noting Sakurai’s quote about “similar characters function in an even slightly different manner”, such minor differences will make them separate and different enough to warrant their own spot regardless. The possibility of Octolings becoming unplanned newcomer clones is strong, especially with the current advertising of Echo Fighters. There is also the possibility that they could stay as alternate costumes too, with Echo Fighters just being based purely on ballot popularity rather than fan popularity within a franchise, of which Octolings do not apply to ballot due to them likely not being voted over Inklings at the time. We will have to see.
Ever since the reveal of Knuckles’ Assist Trophy and the new “Echo Fighter” classification of near clones, Shadow has been a potential candidate around many Smash fans’ minds. I initially despised the possibility of it happening, but after thinking about it critically, Shadow is an addition that makes some sense in the context of being an Echo Fighter. The character’s popularity is not to be understated. Shadow is extremely popular in the Sonic fanbase and I would not be surprised if he performed strongly in ballot votes to be an Echo Fighter consideration.
Considering Daisy was likely added purely because to her ballot popularity, I can easily imagine Sakurai thinking in a very different mindset for Echos, to which he tries to cater to as many fans as possible to Ultimate by adding Shadow. I do not believe that will be concerned about adding a second character from a third-party franchise, so as long as the character is similar enough to its counterpart to develop an quick and easy addition. Even though Shadow would be more suited to being more unique with the potential to use his chaos powers, in many Sonic games, he plays so similarly to Sonic that I would not be shocked if Sakurai thought of the similarities too and used that as a basis to seriously consider Shadow for a possible Echo Fighter.
There is not much else to say on Shadow really, as the possible reasons for his inclusion is very straightforward. I understand that there are Smash fans out there that absolutely do not like the idea of multiple characters from the same third party franchise. But, I feel what should be understood that Sakurai will likely think in a different criteria when it comes to choosing Echo Fighters. The rules of choosing Echos are likely much more looser, boiling down the usual newcomer criteria down to just ballot popularity. There might one exception such as the Octolings when it comes to alternate costume to character situations, but I feel most of the Echo Fighters chosen will be of ballot candidates, with Shadow being among one of them.
I personally do not expect all of these newcomers to get in. I think some of these choices will make it. In the process of elimination, these newcomers I am predicting are the only ones I believe have a real shot at being playable in Smash Ultimate. Aside from catching up with the Smash Ultimate Discussion thread, following some support threads, and participating in RTC, I do not plan to speculate hardcore again over the course of the remaining six months. I do not plan to change my predictions either, as I want to get back into other personal things such as classes, anime, and manga. Changing my predictions twice is enough, and it would not be fun if I constantly changed them. I had already figured out my stance for pretty much every possible newcomer in-depth with RTC, so further research would feel unneccessary. I will see if I end up getting the full list of newcomers correct by the time Smash Ultimate's roster is leaked or fully revealed. If you have feedback on my predictions, let me know.
Special thanks to GoldenYuiitusin, Aurora Jenny, TCT~Phantom, everyone in the Rate Their Chances thread, everyone in the SG Discord, every support thread of newcomers I am predicting that helped me with research, and everyone else in the Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Discussion thread for giving me in-depth feedback on my prediction rosters and providing interesting discussion on each newcomer's chances at being in Smash. I also want to give a massive shoutout to Source Gaming for providing valuable sources for Smash information. Without the website, I would not have been able to go this far in Smash speculation.
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