A new way to gauge Match-Ups

[HeroMystic]

First, let me get this out of here: The entire Smashboards have either been downplaying or gauging ratios wrongly. There's too much talk about how this one move ***** so-and-so, or if the phrase "if you play perfectly", everyone seems to be convinced.

There's a lot more to Match-Up talk than moveset and character abilities. In fact, what we've been mostly talking about is how to win, not honest analysis of match-ups.

This board in particular needs a stronger, more solid analysis per character, as I know we've been downplaying our ratios for the sake of avoiding conflict from other characters. For the sake of new players I honestly don't believe we need to be doing this anymore. At the same time, our outlook on MUs could even be entirely wrong in the first place.

From what I see in MU analysis, we've always focused on: Strengths, Weaknesses, and covering those weaknesses, when in fact that's only one part of the MU.

I'd like to show everyone a quote I've discussed during the garbage talk of the MK Ban discussion.

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=9480761&postcount=2396

I'm sorru, I forgot who actually said it, but I've always suggested that most MU ratios are BS. Many assume that players won't "play gay", many don't take into account things like "mindgames potential" (yes, totally measurable, I made a thread about calculating that for various characters in various situations).


The core problem is that MUs need to be mathmatically defined as efficiently as possible, and that requires a concerted and quite frankly is very difficult.

Good current MU ratios are estimates, bad ones are pure shots in the dark.

Through this, I've came up with this:

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=9477258&postcount=2174

In Brawl, a game with very little combos, I personally perceive MU as having three main factors.

-Number of Options per situation.
-Margin of error.
-Character attributes.

Options simply being what valid actions you can perform in any given situation, Margin of Error being how many mistakes a character can make without being put in a disadvantage, and Character attributes should be self-explanatory.

It's not perfect, but I believe it's better than what we got going right now.

As I a note: I didn't create this to dog Inferno's MU chart. Heck, my personal MU Index does the same thing. I just believe we've just been looking at this the wrong way which is why we have so much conflict as far as telling how hard/easy a MU is.

Plus my Wii is broke so I can't practice ._.

------------

Current Format

Options per Situation

Approach

Defense

Edgeguard

Recovery

Margin of Error

Degree of Punishment

Character Attributes

Strengths

Weaknesses

Covering Weaknesses

Kill Potential (Gimping would also go here)

Damage Power and KO Power

Gimp Ability

Overall

**** Advantage
Heavy Advantage
Advantage
Slight Advantage
Even
Slight Disadvantage
Disadvantage
Heavy Disadvantage
Unwinnable

 

[mars16]

Awsome!

What character do we start with?

 

[HyperGumba]

What about MK?
Since this originated from the MK-ban discussion.

 

[HeroMystic]

This thread is more used to discuss how we can improve our outlook on match-up discussions, not an actual Match-up thread.

Like I said, what I have listed isn't perfect, but it's a start.

 

[HyperGumba]

Oh,okay,I guess,I messed up with something. But do you think it will change something in the match-up rankings?

 

[HeroMystic]

Until all boards follow suit with changes, it doesn't really matter.

As far as accuracy goes though, I think we'll be seeing much less evens.

 

[mars16]

Maybe looking at tournament results and stuff can help

 

[HeroMystic]

Tournament Results are too arbitrary. Or in other words: Based on player skill and popularity rather than unbiased analysis.

Same goes to the Tier list as well, since it's largely based on tournament rankings as well.

 

[Matt07]

I agree with this as well, I think things need to be re-discussed in a new format.

 

[HeroMystic]

Still know it's early and people are probably working and such, but throw out ideas when you can.

My idea as of now is to (for now) throw away ratios and instead categorize them as...

**** Advantage (100:0 - 75:25)
Heavy Advantage (70:30)
Advantage (65:35 - 60:40)
Even (55:45 - 45:55)
Disadvantage (40:60 - 35:65)
Heavy Disadvantage (70:30)
Unwinnable (75:25 - 0:100)

The ratios are there just to get an idea of the categories. Perhaps when all characters are done we can go specific and input ratios.

 

[Matador]

I actually started constructing a thread on this and planned on running it along-side Inferno's and FireMario149's match-up videos. However, my thread was going to do it more from a Mario main's point of view rather than an objective one. I may AIM you with my ideas later on.

Lol, your Wii broke too? Cheap pieces of ****.

 

[HeroMystic]

Well, PoVs mainly pertain to "How to win" more than objective, but there's honestly nothing wrong with grouping the two together.

And yes, my Wii stopped working this morning. My discs no longer read. -_-

 

[hippiedude92]

so mario is going to have more disadvantages now? Sweet.

at least we were active enough to keep our MU discussions going, better than having a dead mario community lol

lol @ wii breaking. u tight.

 

[HeroMystic]

Well, it's always a possibility. Mario could get more advantages as well however.

And yeah, we were one of the few boards to not let our MU discussions rot, so brownie points for us.

 

[Inferno3044]

Should I start over the discussion?

EDIT: I agree with the whole perfect thing. Rookie told me before that Fox vs. MK is 55:45 MK if played perfectly this includes always doing the right options, properly reading the opponent, etc. My immediate question to this was "what's the real ratio for this MU" and he replied with 60:40 MK with confidence. I've thought of this and I have never used the "if you play perfectly then..." card.

 

[HeroMystic]

It'll probably be best for a restart, but nothing is finalized on here yet, so don't restart right now.

Waiting for more input before finalizing anything though.

 

[Big-Omar]

I agree with this. It always confused me how people say Mario ***** Ness,bowser, etc. but the ratios say 55:45 Mario. >_>

This format makes more sense.

 

[Inferno3044]

I agree with this. It always confused me how people say Mario ***** Ness,bowser, etc. but the ratios say 55:45 Mario. >_>

This format makes more sense.

Untrue. People say that Mario beats Ness, Bowser, etc. To me, to say one character beats another means it's not a slight advantage.

 

[Big-Omar]

Lol sorry Inferno, when i said "****" I did not mean anything like 80:20, Mario. Idk why i keep saying "****", its one of my habits >_> Sorry if i confused you

 

[Matador]

Lol sorry Inferno, when i said "****" I did not mean anything like 80:20, Mario. Idk why i keep saying "****", its one of my habits >_> Sorry if i confused you

Lmao, the disease of being a smasher.

I once said **** to my mother once...and didn't realize it till after the conversation. Extremely awkward O_O