Being an Olimar main as well, I don't think it's that bad for Olimar. I don't know why you put him on -3
Oh no a pissed off a olimar main. inb4 steelguttey shows up defending his char. lmfao
its not the down throw f-air thats a problem. ive had some good games with dotcom. also beaten steelguttey in a MM. i dont think its the down throw fair. Its the neutral game. Mario's neutral presence is too great. on top of being easily combo'd by mario, with a sub par recovery. Olimar gets kinda bodied by mario IMHO.
Edit: Projectiles makes this MU dificult for olimar. Yea olimar kinda outspacesmario, though its not the biggest deal in this MU. everything mario has makes up for that. Good projectile pressure seriously limits olimars options. olimar can't even compete with marios projectile pressure, his pikman would just die(unless its purple).
Also mario can kinda just flick pikaman off of him. last time i check pikaman dont clank with mario's normals, they die. You don't know how many times ive played an olimar, and just stood in place and jab'd/f-tilt'd their pikaman away. Whenever i see olimar i feel kinda sad. only because i feel like their gameplan simply just doesnt work for PM's enviorment. too fast + better campers.
Edit: when pikaman do latch on i just n-air in place....problem solved!
ALL of this being said. you may be right. i should look at how olimars view this MU, and try make a MU ratio off of that.
It just doent even feel like a 6:4 for olimar. it seems like they have to work incredibly hard in neutral. Harder than mario would have too.
Personally even in melee i dont think doc truly beats jiggs. then again my jiggss experience comes from 2saint. i believe hes now considered the best jiggs in tristate. i know he did really well at shots fired 2. my bias aside the MU could definitely be even, i just hate the MU.
Changes I feel I could make to this are Sonic, Ganon, Ike, Diddy, Puff Being Neutral, D3 being a +1 at best, and Roy/Mewtwo being a -1 from my experiences.
I can see sonic being even. and puff. I can maybe even see diddy.
Ike has alot of movement options, and can keep us wall'd out. -1 (55:45 ike) seems fair since its a very slight advantage to ike
Ganon i feel can wall us out pretty well. if ganon hold center stage it can be tough. plus they can kill mario pretty early. the thing is 1: fireball makes things difficult. ganon can deal with firebalss decently well.a well spaced ganon fair can snuff out the fireball, lock down space, and hit us. that being said you can use fireball to force situations and take advantage 2: he has a decent combo game on ganon, and cape just makes recoverying almost impossible. Ganons biggest problem is almost everything he does he has to commit. you can say that for anyone, but hes also slower than most characters. which is why i feel like 55:45 is fair. though 6:4 may be slightly more accurate.
As for diddy my only problem with him, is that hes just a "better" mario. his neutral presence is also stronger. Glide tossing could make things difficult as well. we combo the hell out of diddy, but hes also can combo us pretty well + being faster than us. i still stick to my +1 with diddy.
as for roy/marth. they are not really characters we out right beat. marth/roy can deal with projectiles really well. Their disjoints can shut down most of our options, with out much commitment. Both characters are also strong edge guarders, resulting in earlier stocks lost. also roy can kill mario way better than marth can. maybe even earlier. in my MU spread a 1 is a very slight advantage with a ratio of 55:45. These 2 match ups just dont feel that way. mario has a harder time in neutral.
AS for m2. one of my practice partners is a good m2(HM04). I have some experience in this mu. M2 has every tool under sun. (disjoints, good recovery, good combos, good edgeguards, float cancels, double jump cancels). The MU can be quite stressful. THe only good thing is that we can kill m2 kinda earlier. Though i have found sometimes mario his a marth percent, where all normal setups that kills no longer work. M2 is also hard to edgeguard for mario. even grabing ledge can prove a poor option. M2 can teleport far enough to avoid a punish from ledge. +2 (60:40 M2) is fair.
PS: about this MU. whenever im around a top player for a certain character i randomly ask their opinion on the MU. Mainly because most top players do not post on smashboards. I recently asked frozen what he felt about the M2/Mario mu. he was also leaning towards 60:40 in m2s favor.
Like i said most of these are my opinion and in no way saying that i am absolutely right. I will politely debate you though.