SSB4 Rumours and Leaks

[KuroganeHammer]

I was expecting:

"Hi guys, I've been a lurker here since pre-brawl and I have some info on the new Sm4sh"

Props to you.

I agree.

But still, leaks only please rather than posting for the sake of posting.

I find it funny how you say Jiggs was low priority but still made it back before Mewtwo. If Jiggs is low priority then what is Mewtwo?

It doesn't matter, it's not something that should be discussed here.

Try this thread: http://smashboards.com/threads/official-character-discussion-thread.347464/

 

[Autumn ♫]

I find it funny how you say Jiggs was low priority but still made it back before Mewtwo. If Jiggs is low priority then what is Mewtwo?

My theory on that is that history repeats itself. As, what happened it Melee happened in Brawl. Sakurai could add one more character (Melee King Dedede and in Brawl Mewtwo) but decided to go for mor, easier to make characters to have a more expansion in the roster, thus Jiggly, Toon Link, and Wolf were born into playable characters while Mewtwo and possibly Roy, had to sit out.

But, I don't think Sal's leak affects this in any way, so moving on.

 

[---]

I was going to do this earlier but real life comes first. I'm going to post this one last thing and leave it at that. In the end, it does matter because the roster is what it is and the people here aren't going to change their minds no matter what. The problem with the rumor is that people want to believe it that evidence get twisted or ignored.

When you analyze anything, you review the facts and date, and then make a conclusion. With this rumor, the stance has been to come to a conclusion then try to fit the evidence to the conclusion. You can see this in numerous situations. This is what we call confirmation bias. What is confirmation bias you ask? Well,

In psychology and cognitive science, confirmation bias (or confirmatory bias) is a tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions, leading to statistical errors.
Confirmation bias is a phenomenon wherein decision makers have been shown to actively seek out and assign more weight to evidence that confirms their hypothesis, and ignore or underweigh evidence that could disconfirm their hypothesis.

So basically, confirmation bias is when you try to prove your own conclusion first and skew the rest. It's no surprise that when confronted with specific issues with the leak, that it's believers attempt to rationalize it away rather than look at it first. As I mentioned before, there are three major issues that this rumor runs into. One of the most drastic of those was the fact that the characters were not shown at E3 despite the rumor specifically saying they were to be shown. If we apply the same criteria that is applied to other rumors, you'd assume that it might not be true, as something he said would happen didn't. What many people did was assume that the characters were pushed back and they would be shown at a later date. While possible, it's not very probably as it is more likely that the characters were not to be shown at the event than Nintendo removing the reveals at the last minute. Not to mention that Pac-Man and Mii were not shown despite the fact that they would have been far enough along to show almost a year ago if we believe the rumor.

Still don't believe me? Consider the Greninja reveal. After it, many people here said "He got Greninja right!" That is actually an incorrect statement. He never said "Greninja" would be in. He specifically said "Pokemon from Pokemon X and Y" (link if you don't believe me). This is very different. He didn't get Greninja right. He was right that there was a Pokemon from Pokemon X and Y." However, what people did was assume he knew the character when he never specifically said that character was in the game. This is confirmation bias. People want to believe the leak is real, so they skew the information to fit their ideas. Here, he was assumed to have gotten Greninja right, even though he never said Greninja. He only said a new Pokemon from X and Y was coming. This is looking at the conclusion before the evidence. Instead, let's consider the evidence. He didn't state that a character would be added but a character from a group would be. With many of his other characters, he was specific. But here, he is not. Also, if he has a credible source, then the source would know the characters names. If he knew what the character looked like, then he would have been able to describe the character "He's a Pokemon. He's blue, a frog with a tongue scarf." Conversely, how would the leaker only know that he was from Pokemon X/Y and not know his name or what he looked like. He would probably have to know who he was to identify that he was from a specific game. Based on this, it doesn't seem very likely that he would have a source because he didn't have a name or description. In fact, it seems more likely that he didn't have any information, and "Pokemon from X and Y" was a safe guess. it would make sense because while you can be specific with Shulk and Plautena, it's hard to do the same with Pokemon. In the new game, it could be any one of 70 characters, and that's a lot of chances you could be wrong. It's safe to say there will be a new Pokemon, and it would likely be true because every Smash game has added a new Pokemon. No surprise he was right and no surprise everyone eat it up when Greninja was announced. So let's take a look at the three issues I brought up before

1. He never stated he had a source until after the characters were revealed. It was a prediction up until that point.
2. He stated the characters were to be shown at E3, but the characters were not shown at E3. Two characters have yet to be seen.
3. He stated a Pokemon from X and Y would be included instead of saying a specific character (Here, Greninja)

Now, what you should do is consider these as a whole. What many people do is assume he was right and then add rational for the following. What happens is that you have three different scenarios to explain this. First, he didn't say he had a source because he wasn't sure that the source was credible. Of course, this is silly because all new sites post rumors regardless of their credibility. Then, the characters weren't shown at E3 because they were pushed back. Again, a little silly because it seem strange that Nintendo would show off so many characters (more than Brawl) and then half that. Not to mention that almost a year later we only know 6 characters. My favorite is that the information came from two different sources. Then, they say he didn't know Greninja because either him or the source doesn't know Pokemon (forget using Google or describing the characters). That's three different explanations to explain some of the issues with one rumor. See how it's more silly and preposterous. One could be possible. Two maybe. But three separate issues? It's like a bird with one wing. It just doesn't fly. Occam's Razor is the simplest answer is the best. So what's the simplest answer? He made it up. First he never said a source before because there was no rumor. No need to claim you have info until your right. Third, they weren't shown at E3 because, in the end, he didn't know anymore than the rest of us. And third, he gave a broad category because he doesn't have information. So it's safe to say a New Pokemon will be added. So I can explain all three with one answer. Because they are related, it makes more sense he made it up.

"But Smashchu! What about Wii Fit Trainer? He got that right." That is true. However, it was likely a lucky guess. "How can you say that. Isn't it silly and preposterous that he just guessed this character." Not necessarily. It has been shown that Wii Fit Trainer was talked about somewhat. However, it's not unreasonable to think that someone got her right. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of predictions made. It's possible that someone got that character right. Also, when you look a all the other evidence, it seems more likely he made it up rather than he had a source and there are a lot of suspicious instances. Again, it's weighting the evidence. What happened is that him and others committed the Texas Shapshooter Fallacy. I've mentioned it before here, but here is a quick refresher. It stems from a shooter firing at a barn. When he noticed the shots clustered, he drew a target on it. The same happened here. When he got an character not many people thought of, he drew the target. Just because he got something right doesn't mean he has inside information. Especially when you consider what I mentioned before. Also, it's not unlikely for people to guess characters. On 4Chan, minutes before, someone posted that "Suppose a new Pokemon was announced, who do you want." and he posted a picture of Greninja. Of course, he did better than Sal did, but no one thought he had inside information.

There are other things as well. One thing to look back is the Chaos Zero leak. He knew characters specific names and other content in the game (Final Destination, Stage Builder, and the Dragoon). Sal only said characters and nothing else which is unlikely because if someone had inside information, they would know more than just character names. Other rumors had similar information like character's abilities or other game content. Also, Sal's last rumor was done right before a direct. It seems strange that the guy would wait 10 months before giving more info, and do it right before Nintendo gives more info. Many people questions why he would lie. It would hurt his site's reputation. It's because it's click bait. Basically, the rumors exist for traffic. Here is what I mean. The website is beat by GameXplain and Malstrom's blog for numbers of searches. Note that Malstrom hasn't posted much recently. In otherwords, Sal's website is very no name. How can you improve searches? Why, have a fake rumor of course. And since he got Wii Fit Trainer right, it's even better. Now you can drive hits to your site. Why did he get information before the direct. Because the direct would bring in more hits for Smash info. It's also why he had a lot of safe guesses. So long as none of those characters are specifically deconfirmed, it's no problem.

You may wonder where I'm getting some of these later ideas from. Again, it all stems for the fact that I considered the evidence first, then drew a conclusion. Even though he got WFT right, there were still a lot of other issues that didn't make sense. Weighting the evidence, it seemed more likely he didn't know anything and was able to guess. It them drew from there and I can explain some more of the other small inconsistencies (why doesn't he have other information, why did the last leak come hours before the direct and not any time else in the last 10 months). It also explains why he made an account on Smashboards to make 1 post after the characters weren't shown at E3. One of the things about confirmation bias is that it usually happens when emotions take over. It's no surprise that a lot of people celebrated after Greninja came out and they can claim "They leak is true. See. See." The people here want it to be true. This is also why there is this double standard where if the littlest thing is wrong, the rumor is false whereas when this was wrong everyone ignored it. Looking back at the Brawl leaks, everyone hated them because they didn't fit what they wanted for the game. So much so that mods actually deleted them. I suspect there will be more of an outcry when a real leak comes though. I also expect many of the people listening to this one would be upset if such a situation occurred. To close, don't jump the gun. People were smart with the Plautena leak because they tried to disprove it first. By being unable to do so, they gave it credibility. It's credibility was earned, not assumed.

Well, that's that. There may be some editing and other issues I missed, but I need to head to bed. I wont really reply to this unless there is a question. Again, people who believe the leak wont change their minds and the roster will be whatever it is regardless. Till next time!

I won't lie, you put up a good, but very long, argument SmashChu. These are pretty much all the reasons I have to doubt the guy.

That said, from what we know and has been revealed/hinted at, as well as his apparent creditability, I'm still not convinced that we should toss this potential leak just yet, though you are right in that we shouldn't blindly follow it.

 

[Gaxel]

There's a theory on 4chan (maybe more of a meme but...) that says Ridley has been combined with other reincarnations to make him fit as playable. The story is that after the original Ridley's death, the space pirates mutated both of them together.

As you can see, it's Other M's tail but!! His body isn't as bulky and his wings are shorter and more square.

 

[TheTuninator]

On a more serious note, I didn't realize one of our mods had spoken with Sal. The fact that he isn't publicly sharing what he found out makes me feel like he likely got some interesting details that shed more light on Sal's leaks. I sure would like to be in on that information!

I thought that Starphoenix shared his discussion with Sal over Twitter with the thread? Was there some stuff that he kept private?

I actually don't hold not posting the initial leak against Sal, as any site trying to be reputable couldn't post every crackpot rumor email it got. What's a bit odd is that he held off on posting the leak due to a claimed lack of credibility, but then afterward had the leaker vetted as credible. According to the second wave of leaks, the leaker never followed up with Sal, so how could the leaker's credentials suddenly improve in any way besides simply predicting WFT?

 

[soviet prince]

There's a theory on 4chan (maybe more of a meme but...) that says Ridley has been combined with other reincarnations to make him fit as playable. The story is that after the original Ridley's death, the space pirates mutated both of them together.

As you can see, it's Other M's tail but!! His body isn't as bulky and his wings are shorter and more square.

I now dub it frankinridley

 

[---]

I thought that Starphoenix shared his discussion with Sal over Twitter with the thread? Was there some stuff that he kept private?

He's kept it private within the Social Groups to avoid overreactions/nagging within this thread, but it's nothing that changes anything about the leaks. If people are really curious, it'd be best to give Sal some time to respond seeing as he's lurking within the thread right now.

 

[DangerDamage]

I'm going to be honest here, everyone over-analyzes every potential thing that could discredit a leak. The Scientific approach is cool, yes, but you're again making assumptions based on a post of a joke?

You can't assume it was a lucky guess, you could say it was but from what we know, we can't. It was a leak, and so far it's the oldest leak that isn't completely destroyed, hell we have to go through leaps and bounds just even say that it can be wrong.

Just like with any leak, we know it can be wrong. People will treat it as if it's true because most of what it says it has gotten correct so far, even if it is vague.

Also, that 48 character roster/4 cut leak has currently NOTHING going for it. For all we know, Sakurai might have opted to keep Squirtle and Ivysaur in the game as separate characters since it's incredibly easy to just port their movesets and give them a down special.

We can't confirm any leaks until something specific comes through. Trying to force us back on the exact same Sal/Palutena/Off-topic loop won't work since there isn't anything to discuss, meanwhile there probably is some information mods have available to them that isn't being shared.

I understand that it isn't my right to know, but I do damn sure have a right to ask if the info our mods have on Sal even pertains to or even adds to the credibility of the leak, and that could certainly draw discussion from off-topic onto a bit of information. So essentially, just answer this vague question whoever knows of what was posted about Sal, does it add to the credibility of the leak? All I want to know because Sal's leak is definitely interesting since it seems the leaker has certain info and other info isn't shown.

IGNORE THAT PART SAL IS READING THIS THREAD RIGHT NOW? CAN I HAVE AN AUTOGRAPH? And can you confirm if your leak is real?

 

[Deoxys911]

He's kept it private within the Social Groups to avoid overreactions/nagging within this thread, but it's nothing that changes anything about the leaks. If people are really curious, it'd be best to give Sal some time to respond seeing as he's lurking within the thread right now.

Holy ****, plot twist! If he had anymore major details to share I figure he would have shared them by now, to be honest. It's too bad, unlike with Brawl leakers, he himself is not the source, otherwise he could at least tell us whether or not to pay any attention to the Mario Kart 8 leak.

 

[---]

Holy ****, plot twist! If he had anymore major details to share I figure he would have shared them by now, to be honest. It's too bad, unlike with Brawl leakers, he himself is not the source, otherwise he could at least tell us whether or not to pay any attention to the Mario Kart 8 leak.

Just wait for him to respond if he feels like it. This isn't a hype thread. To which I do apologize for drawing unneeded attention. Any posts directed at nagging him or Star shall be given infractions.

That said, many of you I think are just answering your own questions.

 

[RelaxAlax]

I was going to do this earlier but real life comes first. I'm going to post this one last thing and leave it at that. In the end, it does matter because the roster is what it is and the people here aren't going to change their minds no matter what. The problem with the rumor is that people want to believe it that evidence get twisted or ignored.

When you analyze anything, you review the facts and date, and then make a conclusion. With this rumor, the stance has been to come to a conclusion then try to fit the evidence to the conclusion. You can see this in numerous situations. This is what we call confirmation bias. What is confirmation bias you ask? Well,

In psychology and cognitive science, confirmation bias (or confirmatory bias) is a tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions, leading to statistical errors.
Confirmation bias is a phenomenon wherein decision makers have been shown to actively seek out and assign more weight to evidence that confirms their hypothesis, and ignore or underweigh evidence that could disconfirm their hypothesis.

So basically, confirmation bias is when you try to prove your own conclusion first and skew the rest. It's no surprise that when confronted with specific issues with the leak, that it's believers attempt to rationalize it away rather than look at it first. As I mentioned before, there are three major issues that this rumor runs into. One of the most drastic of those was the fact that the characters were not shown at E3 despite the rumor specifically saying they were to be shown. If we apply the same criteria that is applied to other rumors, you'd assume that it might not be true, as something he said would happen didn't. What many people did was assume that the characters were pushed back and they would be shown at a later date. While possible, it's not very probably as it is more likely that the characters were not to be shown at the event than Nintendo removing the reveals at the last minute. Not to mention that Pac-Man and Mii were not shown despite the fact that they would have been far enough along to show almost a year ago if we believe the rumor.

Still don't believe me? Consider the Greninja reveal. After it, many people here said "He got Greninja right!" That is actually an incorrect statement. He never said "Greninja" would be in. He specifically said "Pokemon from Pokemon X and Y" (link if you don't believe me). This is very different. He didn't get Greninja right. He was right that there was a Pokemon from Pokemon X and Y." However, what people did was assume he knew the character when he never specifically said that character was in the game. This is confirmation bias. People want to believe the leak is real, so they skew the information to fit their ideas. Here, he was assumed to have gotten Greninja right, even though he never said Greninja. He only said a new Pokemon from X and Y was coming. This is looking at the conclusion before the evidence. Instead, let's consider the evidence. He didn't state that a character would be added but a character from a group would be. With many of his other characters, he was specific. But here, he is not. Also, if he has a credible source, then the source would know the characters names. If he knew what the character looked like, then he would have been able to describe the character "He's a Pokemon. He's blue, a frog with a tongue scarf." Conversely, how would the leaker only know that he was from Pokemon X/Y and not know his name or what he looked like. He would probably have to know who he was to identify that he was from a specific game. Based on this, it doesn't seem very likely that he would have a source because he didn't have a name or description. In fact, it seems more likely that he didn't have any information, and "Pokemon from X and Y" was a safe guess. it would make sense because while you can be specific with Shulk and Plautena, it's hard to do the same with Pokemon. In the new game, it could be any one of 70 characters, and that's a lot of chances you could be wrong. It's safe to say there will be a new Pokemon, and it would likely be true because every Smash game has added a new Pokemon. No surprise he was right and no surprise everyone eat it up when Greninja was announced. So let's take a look at the three issues I brought up before

1. He never stated he had a source until after the characters were revealed. It was a prediction up until that point.
2. He stated the characters were to be shown at E3, but the characters were not shown at E3. Two characters have yet to be seen.
3. He stated a Pokemon from X and Y would be included instead of saying a specific character (Here, Greninja)

Now, what you should do is consider these as a whole. What many people do is assume he was right and then add rational for the following. What happens is that you have three different scenarios to explain this. First, he didn't say he had a source because he wasn't sure that the source was credible. Of course, this is silly because all new sites post rumors regardless of their credibility. Then, the characters weren't shown at E3 because they were pushed back. Again, a little silly because it seem strange that Nintendo would show off so many characters (more than Brawl) and then half that. Not to mention that almost a year later we only know 6 characters. My favorite is that the information came from two different sources. Then, they say he didn't know Greninja because either him or the source doesn't know Pokemon (forget using Google or describing the characters). That's three different explanations to explain some of the issues with one rumor. See how it's more silly and preposterous. One could be possible. Two maybe. But three separate issues? It's like a bird with one wing. It just doesn't fly. Occam's Razor is the simplest answer is the best. So what's the simplest answer? He made it up. First he never said a source before because there was no rumor. No need to claim you have info until your right. Third, they weren't shown at E3 because, in the end, he didn't know anymore than the rest of us. And third, he gave a broad category because he doesn't have information. So it's safe to say a New Pokemon will be added. So I can explain all three with one answer. Because they are related, it makes more sense he made it up.

"But Smashchu! What about Wii Fit Trainer? He got that right." That is true. However, it was likely a lucky guess. "How can you say that. Isn't it silly and preposterous that he just guessed this character." Not necessarily. It has been shown that Wii Fit Trainer was talked about somewhat. However, it's not unreasonable to think that someone got her right. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of predictions made. It's possible that someone got that character right. Also, when you look a all the other evidence, it seems more likely he made it up rather than he had a source and there are a lot of suspicious instances. Again, it's weighting the evidence. What happened is that him and others committed the Texas Shapshooter Fallacy. I've mentioned it before here, but here is a quick refresher. It stems from a shooter firing at a barn. When he noticed the shots clustered, he drew a target on it. The same happened here. When he got an character not many people thought of, he drew the target. Just because he got something right doesn't mean he has inside information. Especially when you consider what I mentioned before. Also, it's not unlikely for people to guess characters. On 4Chan, minutes before, someone posted that "Suppose a new Pokemon was announced, who do you want." and he posted a picture of Greninja. Of course, he did better than Sal did, but no one thought he had inside information.

There are other things as well. One thing to look back is the Chaos Zero leak. He knew characters specific names and other content in the game (Final Destination, Stage Builder, and the Dragoon). Sal only said characters and nothing else which is unlikely because if someone had inside information, they would know more than just character names. Other rumors had similar information like character's abilities or other game content. Also, Sal's last rumor was done right before a direct. It seems strange that the guy would wait 10 months before giving more info, and do it right before Nintendo gives more info. Many people questions why he would lie. It would hurt his site's reputation. It's because it's click bait. Basically, the rumors exist for traffic. Here is what I mean. The website is beat by GameXplain and Malstrom's blog for numbers of searches. Note that Malstrom hasn't posted much recently. In otherwords, Sal's website is very no name. How can you improve searches? Why, have a fake rumor of course. And since he got Wii Fit Trainer right, it's even better. Now you can drive hits to your site. Why did he get information before the direct. Because the direct would bring in more hits for Smash info. It's also why he had a lot of safe guesses. So long as none of those characters are specifically deconfirmed, it's no problem.

You may wonder where I'm getting some of these later ideas from. Again, it all stems for the fact that I considered the evidence first, then drew a conclusion. Even though he got WFT right, there were still a lot of other issues that didn't make sense. Weighting the evidence, it seemed more likely he didn't know anything and was able to guess. It them drew from there and I can explain some more of the other small inconsistencies (why doesn't he have other information, why did the last leak come hours before the direct and not any time else in the last 10 months). It also explains why he made an account on Smashboards to make 1 post after the characters weren't shown at E3. One of the things about confirmation bias is that it usually happens when emotions take over. It's no surprise that a lot of people celebrated after Greninja came out and they can claim "They leak is true. See. See." The people here want it to be true. This is also why there is this double standard where if the littlest thing is wrong, the rumor is false whereas when this was wrong everyone ignored it. Looking back at the Brawl leaks, everyone hated them because they didn't fit what they wanted for the game. So much so that mods actually deleted them. I suspect there will be more of an outcry when a real leak comes though. I also expect many of the people listening to this one would be upset if such a situation occurred. To close, don't jump the gun. People were smart with the Plautena leak because they tried to disprove it first. By being unable to do so, they gave it credibility. It's credibility was earned, not assumed.

Well, that's that. There may be some editing and other issues I missed, but I need to head to bed. I wont really reply to this unless there is a question. Again, people who believe the leak wont change their minds and the roster will be whatever it is regardless. Till next time!

Thank you. I've been wanting to make a very similar post but you took care of it SmashChu. I agree with the stance you take, mine's been the same all along with this leak chain. However, I'd still keep my eyes on it given some evidence, but i feel it's believers are putting it on a pedestal (no offense directly to any users - it's a collective effort with this sort of thing). Guess we'll wait and see how it plays out.

 

[TheTuninator]

He's kept it private within the Social Groups to avoid overreactions/nagging within this thread, but it's nothing that changes anything about the leaks. If people are really curious, it'd be best to give Sal some time to respond seeing as he's lurking within the thread right now.

Yeah, that's what I thought. Thanks for confirming.

Just goes to show how easily playing Telephone over the internet can distort information.

 

[kataridragon]

I believe its important to keep being skeptical but at the same time Sal is the best we got right now and he has a pretty good track record (The ssb4 as well as other leaks). I am personally giving him the benefit of the doubt right now. However time will tell on how accurate the predictions actually are.

I don't think Sal likes to jeopardize his credibility. He has that on the line to a degree and its worth noting.

 

[TheTuninator]

I'm more so skeptical of Sal's leaker than Sal himself, especially given that the leaker has provided incorrect information in the past.

 

[salromano]

I was going to do this earlier but real life comes first. I'm going to post this one last thing and leave it at that. In the end, it does matter because the roster is what it is and the people here aren't going to change their minds no matter what. The problem with the rumor is that people want to believe it that evidence get twisted or ignored.

When you analyze anything, you review the facts and date, and then make a conclusion. With this rumor, the stance has been to come to a conclusion then try to fit the evidence to the conclusion. You can see this in numerous situations. This is what we call confirmation bias. What is confirmation bias you ask? Well,

In psychology and cognitive science, confirmation bias (or confirmatory bias) is a tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions, leading to statistical errors.
Confirmation bias is a phenomenon wherein decision makers have been shown to actively seek out and assign more weight to evidence that confirms their hypothesis, and ignore or underweigh evidence that could disconfirm their hypothesis.

So basically, confirmation bias is when you try to prove your own conclusion first and skew the rest. It's no surprise that when confronted with specific issues with the leak, that it's believers attempt to rationalize it away rather than look at it first. As I mentioned before, there are three major issues that this rumor runs into. One of the most drastic of those was the fact that the characters were not shown at E3 despite the rumor specifically saying they were to be shown. If we apply the same criteria that is applied to other rumors, you'd assume that it might not be true, as something he said would happen didn't. What many people did was assume that the characters were pushed back and they would be shown at a later date. While possible, it's not very probably as it is more likely that the characters were not to be shown at the event than Nintendo removing the reveals at the last minute. Not to mention that Pac-Man and Mii were not shown despite the fact that they would have been far enough along to show almost a year ago if we believe the rumor.

Still don't believe me? Consider the Greninja reveal. After it, many people here said "He got Greninja right!" That is actually an incorrect statement. He never said "Greninja" would be in. He specifically said "Pokemon from Pokemon X and Y" (link if you don't believe me). This is very different. He didn't get Greninja right. He was right that there was a Pokemon from Pokemon X and Y." However, what people did was assume he knew the character when he never specifically said that character was in the game. This is confirmation bias. People want to believe the leak is real, so they skew the information to fit their ideas. Here, he was assumed to have gotten Greninja right, even though he never said Greninja. He only said a new Pokemon from X and Y was coming. This is looking at the conclusion before the evidence. Instead, let's consider the evidence. He didn't state that a character would be added but a character from a group would be. With many of his other characters, he was specific. But here, he is not. Also, if he has a credible source, then the source would know the characters names. If he knew what the character looked like, then he would have been able to describe the character "He's a Pokemon. He's blue, a frog with a tongue scarf." Conversely, how would the leaker only know that he was from Pokemon X/Y and not know his name or what he looked like. He would probably have to know who he was to identify that he was from a specific game. Based on this, it doesn't seem very likely that he would have a source because he didn't have a name or description. In fact, it seems more likely that he didn't have any information, and "Pokemon from X and Y" was a safe guess. it would make sense because while you can be specific with Shulk and Plautena, it's hard to do the same with Pokemon. In the new game, it could be any one of 70 characters, and that's a lot of chances you could be wrong. It's safe to say there will be a new Pokemon, and it would likely be true because every Smash game has added a new Pokemon. No surprise he was right and no surprise everyone eat it up when Greninja was announced. So let's take a look at the three issues I brought up before

1. He never stated he had a source until after the characters were revealed. It was a prediction up until that point.
2. He stated the characters were to be shown at E3, but the characters were not shown at E3. Two characters have yet to be seen.
3. He stated a Pokemon from X and Y would be included instead of saying a specific character (Here, Greninja)

Now, what you should do is consider these as a whole. What many people do is assume he was right and then add rational for the following. What happens is that you have three different scenarios to explain this. First, he didn't say he had a source because he wasn't sure that the source was credible. Of course, this is silly because all new sites post rumors regardless of their credibility. Then, the characters weren't shown at E3 because they were pushed back. Again, a little silly because it seem strange that Nintendo would show off so many characters (more than Brawl) and then half that. Not to mention that almost a year later we only know 6 characters. My favorite is that the information came from two different sources. Then, they say he didn't know Greninja because either him or the source doesn't know Pokemon (forget using Google or describing the characters). That's three different explanations to explain some of the issues with one rumor. See how it's more silly and preposterous. One could be possible. Two maybe. But three separate issues? It's like a bird with one wing. It just doesn't fly. Occam's Razor is the simplest answer is the best. So what's the simplest answer? He made it up. First he never said a source before because there was no rumor. No need to claim you have info until your right. Third, they weren't shown at E3 because, in the end, he didn't know anymore than the rest of us. And third, he gave a broad category because he doesn't have information. So it's safe to say a New Pokemon will be added. So I can explain all three with one answer. Because they are related, it makes more sense he made it up.

"But Smashchu! What about Wii Fit Trainer? He got that right." That is true. However, it was likely a lucky guess. "How can you say that. Isn't it silly and preposterous that he just guessed this character." Not necessarily. It has been shown that Wii Fit Trainer was talked about somewhat. However, it's not unreasonable to think that someone got her right. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of predictions made. It's possible that someone got that character right. Also, when you look a all the other evidence, it seems more likely he made it up rather than he had a source and there are a lot of suspicious instances. Again, it's weighting the evidence. What happened is that him and others committed the Texas Shapshooter Fallacy. I've mentioned it before here, but here is a quick refresher. It stems from a shooter firing at a barn. When he noticed the shots clustered, he drew a target on it. The same happened here. When he got an character not many people thought of, he drew the target. Just because he got something right doesn't mean he has inside information. Especially when you consider what I mentioned before. Also, it's not unlikely for people to guess characters. On 4Chan, minutes before, someone posted that "Suppose a new Pokemon was announced, who do you want." and he posted a picture of Greninja. Of course, he did better than Sal did, but no one thought he had inside information.

There are other things as well. One thing to look back is the Chaos Zero leak. He knew characters specific names and other content in the game (Final Destination, Stage Builder, and the Dragoon). Sal only said characters and nothing else which is unlikely because if someone had inside information, they would know more than just character names. Other rumors had similar information like character's abilities or other game content. Also, Sal's last rumor was done right before a direct. It seems strange that the guy would wait 10 months before giving more info, and do it right before Nintendo gives more info. Many people questions why he would lie. It would hurt his site's reputation. It's because it's click bait. Basically, the rumors exist for traffic. Here is what I mean. The website is beat by GameXplain and Malstrom's blog for numbers of searches. Note that Malstrom hasn't posted much recently. In otherwords, Sal's website is very no name. How can you improve searches? Why, have a fake rumor of course. And since he got Wii Fit Trainer right, it's even better. Now you can drive hits to your site. Why did he get information before the direct. Because the direct would bring in more hits for Smash info. It's also why he had a lot of safe guesses. So long as none of those characters are specifically deconfirmed, it's no problem.

You may wonder where I'm getting some of these later ideas from. Again, it all stems for the fact that I considered the evidence first, then drew a conclusion. Even though he got WFT right, there were still a lot of other issues that didn't make sense. Weighting the evidence, it seemed more likely he didn't know anything and was able to guess. It them drew from there and I can explain some more of the other small inconsistencies (why doesn't he have other information, why did the last leak come hours before the direct and not any time else in the last 10 months). It also explains why he made an account on Smashboards to make 1 post after the characters weren't shown at E3. One of the things about confirmation bias is that it usually happens when emotions take over. It's no surprise that a lot of people celebrated after Greninja came out and they can claim "They leak is true. See. See." The people here want it to be true. This is also why there is this double standard where if the littlest thing is wrong, the rumor is false whereas when this was wrong everyone ignored it. Looking back at the Brawl leaks, everyone hated them because they didn't fit what they wanted for the game. So much so that mods actually deleted them. I suspect there will be more of an outcry when a real leak comes though. I also expect many of the people listening to this one would be upset if such a situation occurred. To close, don't jump the gun. People were smart with the Plautena leak because they tried to disprove it first. By being unable to do so, they gave it credibility. It's credibility was earned, not assumed.

Well, that's that. There may be some editing and other issues I missed, but I need to head to bed. I wont really reply to this unless there is a question. Again, people who believe the leak wont change their minds and the roster will be whatever it is regardless. Till next time!

You seem dead set on convincing everyone this leak is wrong. Everyone's free to speculate. As I've said myself, I'm not 100 percent on my source. But there are a few things I should tackle.

Little Mac, Pac-Man, and Mii Missing E3

I'll be the first to admit, I have no idea. There are literally tons of reasons as to why this person could've thought the trio would appear at E3. But even so, things happen, and not everything always goes according to plan. And Little Mac eventually showed. The guy is still backing Pac-Man and Mii, too. So, much like the rest of the rumor, time will tell there.

Pokemon from X and Y

Again, I don't know. This is what the guy told me, so it's what I posted. I don't know how involved he is in the game's development, or how 'inside' his insder knowledge is. There are, again, tons of reasons as to why he might not have known or been able to say the Pokemon's name. Or even describe him at that. Depending on the guy's involvement, it's possible he was only told about a "Pokemon from X and Y" being in the roster.

Safe Guesses

I see this term tossed around a lot. I honestly don't think there's any such thing. There are no safe guesses when it comes to naming a roster. Wii Fit Trainer wasn't a safe guess, as you'll admit, and I don't know how 'likely' (again, this would be a synonym of a safe guess, which doesn't really apply as this newcomer thing can be pretty darn random) Mega Man, Villager, and Little Mac were, but this guy's 4 for 6 on his E3 leaks so far. Which is pretty darn good.

Leaker Not Leaking Other Things Like Stages, etc.

I don't know, I'm not the leaker. Why is this guy only telling me newcomers? Again, I don't know.

Posting a Baseless Rumor

"First, he didn't say he had a source because he wasn't sure that the source was credible. Of course, this is silly because all new sites post rumors regardless of their credibility."

I'm sorry, I'll try to maintain a crappier website.

Seriously, though, that second sentence is silly in itself. If I get an e-mail from "blahblah@mailservice.com" with a list of characters said tipster claims will be in the game, would you expect me to just run with it without first attempting to verify the guy? If I cared more about hits and less about credibility, sure. But that's not me.

Making Things Up

Let's get one thing straight, and long-time followers of my site will attest to this. I don't make things up. Not for traffic, not for anything. My site exists to provide game news in the most excellent way possible. I don't fabricate information. I'm just like all of you in this, and I'd be pretty pissed off if anyone did something like that. Again, I'm still not 100 percent on my source, but so far he's in the green with his 'leak.'

"In otherwords, Sal's website is very no name. How can you improve searches? Why, have a fake rumor of course. And since he got Wii Fit Trainer right, it's even better. Now you can drive hits to your site."

The site is pretty big actually. More hits would be nice, sure. But we average many more hits than I think you'd imagine per day. It's okay, though. You didn't know.

To Everyone Else

I think my talk with Star, as well as what I've written above, just about sums up everything I can think to say. But yeah. No one has to believe the leak. It's fun to discuss, but being dead set on proving these things true or false without further evidence is not really doable at the moment. Unfortunately it's a waiting game and that's what we'll all just have to do. But I'll tell you now, this isn't something I've gone and pulled out my sleeve for hits. There's no debating that.

Edit: Also, to clarify some more, I've tried contacting this guy for more information. When Star mentioned the leaker being too busy to respond, what I said specifically was that the guy seems to operate on his own schedule, e-mailing me when he wants to rather than what I want him to. Star can attest to that.

 

[NintenRob]

Lets say Salromano leak is true, How big do you guys think the roster is? I'm guessing 50, Squirtal and Ivysaur cut and K Rool and Takamaru added.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

Lets say Salromano leak is true, How big do you guys think the roster is? I'm guessing 50, Squirtal and Ivysaur cut and K Rool and Takamaru added.

I'm guessing 50. Squirtle, Ivysaur, Wolf, Snake, and Ike cut. Mewtwo, Ridley, a DK rep, and Takamaru added.

 

[TheTuninator]

Lets say Salromano leak is true, How big do you guys think the roster is? I'm guessing 50, Squirtal and Ivysaur cut and K Rool and Takamaru added.

I expect that the leaker will probably miss a few more characters like Rosalina even if he's genuine, so probably around 50.

 

[CroonerMike]

I have a feeling that if Sal's leaker would email him and say "King K. Rool and (insert characters everyone wants) is in" then everyone would believe the leak.

 

[kataridragon]

Thanks for the heads up Sal. I got your back.

I believe its important to keep being skeptical but at the same time Sal is the best we got right now and he has a pretty good track record (The ssb4 as well as other leaks). I am personally giving him the benefit of the doubt right now. However time will tell on how accurate the predictions actually are.

I don't think Sal likes to jeopardize his credibility. He has that on the line to a degree and its worth noting.

I had to quote myself after that post. Call it an "I told you so"

 

[Deoxys911]

You know, all this time I figured that the second batch of characters that Sal's source gave him was probably the last of the newcomers, but after reading Sal's post from a few minutes ago I get more of an impression that the source is just revealing info as he gets a hold of it, so now I think I am more a part of the "there's likely more newcomers" camp. That being said, it still seems unlikely that there would be that many more than what he's told us about, so I'm with the seeming group consensus of ~50 (marginally more than the concrete 47 I was predicting before based on his leak).

By the way, thank you for taking the time to contribute to our discussion, Sal!

 

[TheTuninator]

I have a feeling that if Sal's leaker would email him and say "King K. Rool and (insert characters everyone wants) is in" then everyone would believe the leak.

I wouldn't believe it unreservedly even if he claimed an Advance Wars character would be included.

It's not like Chrom, Palutena, Shulk, Mac, and even Pac-Man are/were not widely wanted.

 

[Starphoenix]

Well people, if you have anymore questions, just refer to the post on the last page. There's nothing more that needs to be said.

I also want to address some things that are getting perpetuated that probably should not be treated with much weight in the realm of discussion:

1: The idea that leaks have to be 100% in order to be valid is not true. Anyone who kept track of the Pokémon X and Y leaks on Pokéjungle (I believe) know despite the vast majority of information being true, some information was wrong (the most notable of which was the starting trio's typing). That's the problem of leaking information for a game in development; things change, and sometimes things can just be plain wrong in a way that doesn't compromise the integrity of that information. We aren't talking about the Prophets of Israel where they had to be 100% or else be stoned as heretics.

2: The idea that someone doesn't know about the name Greninja but knows they are an X and Y Pokémon isn't that ludicrous. I kept up with most of the Pokémon leaks when they occurred and I didn't know his name offhand prior to the reveal. Sure, someone can say he should have just known given the fact that he has inside information, but we don't know what level of comprehension this leaker has of the information they're receiving.

Anyways, that's it from me.

 

[Oblivion129]

Maybe the tipper is aware of how crazy things would get (around the internet and at Nintendo) if he mentioned Greninja before the Smash Direct. Either that or he genuinely didn't know which Pokemon from X and Y was in since we can assume was one of the last characters added.

 

[TheTuninator]

Maybe the tipper is aware of how crazy things would get (around the internet and at Nintendo) if he mentioned Greninja before the Smash Direct.

Doubtful, given that he had no problem naming Wii Fit Trainer.

2: The idea that someone doesn't know about the name Greninja but knows they are an X and Y Pokémon isn't that ludicrous. I kept up with most of the Pokémon leaks when they occurred and I didn't know his name offhand prior to the reveal. Sure, someone can say he should have just known given the fact that he has inside information, but we don't know what level of comprehension this leaker has of the information they're receiving.

Anyways, that's it from me.

I completely understand that leakers sometimes have incomplete access to information. It's just weird to me that the guy knows so many characters exactly, including some pretty oddball ones, but is then so vague on Pokemon.

 

[kataridragon]

Sal if your still hanging around and you feel like answering a question let me ask:

Based on what you know. How credible do you think your informant is? In your own words.

Thanks ahead of time! If you don't feel like replying you don't have to.

 

[Miles Pierre]

I was going to do this earlier but real life comes first. I'm going to post this one last thing and leave it at that. In the end, it does matter because the roster is what it is and the people here aren't going to change their minds no matter what. The problem with the rumor is that people want to believe it that evidence get twisted or ignored.

When you analyze anything, you review the facts and date, and then make a conclusion. With this rumor, the stance has been to come to a conclusion then try to fit the evidence to the conclusion. You can see this in numerous situations. This is what we call confirmation bias. What is confirmation bias you ask? Well,

In psychology and cognitive science, confirmation bias (or confirmatory bias) is a tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions, leading to statistical errors.
Confirmation bias is a phenomenon wherein decision makers have been shown to actively seek out and assign more weight to evidence that confirms their hypothesis, and ignore or underweigh evidence that could disconfirm their hypothesis.

So basically, confirmation bias is when you try to prove your own conclusion first and skew the rest. It's no surprise that when confronted with specific issues with the leak, that it's believers attempt to rationalize it away rather than look at it first. As I mentioned before, there are three major issues that this rumor runs into. One of the most drastic of those was the fact that the characters were not shown at E3 despite the rumor specifically saying they were to be shown. If we apply the same criteria that is applied to other rumors, you'd assume that it might not be true, as something he said would happen didn't. What many people did was assume that the characters were pushed back and they would be shown at a later date. While possible, it's not very probably as it is more likely that the characters were not to be shown at the event than Nintendo removing the reveals at the last minute. Not to mention that Pac-Man and Mii were not shown despite the fact that they would have been far enough along to show almost a year ago if we believe the rumor.

Still don't believe me? Consider the Greninja reveal. After it, many people here said "He got Greninja right!" That is actually an incorrect statement. He never said "Greninja" would be in. He specifically said "Pokemon from Pokemon X and Y" (link if you don't believe me). This is very different. He didn't get Greninja right. He was right that there was a Pokemon from Pokemon X and Y." However, what people did was assume he knew the character when he never specifically said that character was in the game. This is confirmation bias. People want to believe the leak is real, so they skew the information to fit their ideas. Here, he was assumed to have gotten Greninja right, even though he never said Greninja. He only said a new Pokemon from X and Y was coming. This is looking at the conclusion before the evidence. Instead, let's consider the evidence. He didn't state that a character would be added but a character from a group would be. With many of his other characters, he was specific. But here, he is not. Also, if he has a credible source, then the source would know the characters names. If he knew what the character looked like, then he would have been able to describe the character "He's a Pokemon. He's blue, a frog with a tongue scarf." Conversely, how would the leaker only know that he was from Pokemon X/Y and not know his name or what he looked like. He would probably have to know who he was to identify that he was from a specific game. Based on this, it doesn't seem very likely that he would have a source because he didn't have a name or description. In fact, it seems more likely that he didn't have any information, and "Pokemon from X and Y" was a safe guess. it would make sense because while you can be specific with Shulk and Plautena, it's hard to do the same with Pokemon. In the new game, it could be any one of 70 characters, and that's a lot of chances you could be wrong. It's safe to say there will be a new Pokemon, and it would likely be true because every Smash game has added a new Pokemon. No surprise he was right and no surprise everyone eat it up when Greninja was announced. So let's take a look at the three issues I brought up before

1. He never stated he had a source until after the characters were revealed. It was a prediction up until that point.
2. He stated the characters were to be shown at E3, but the characters were not shown at E3. Two characters have yet to be seen.
3. He stated a Pokemon from X and Y would be included instead of saying a specific character (Here, Greninja)

Now, what you should do is consider these as a whole. What many people do is assume he was right and then add rational for the following. What happens is that you have three different scenarios to explain this. First, he didn't say he had a source because he wasn't sure that the source was credible. Of course, this is silly because all new sites post rumors regardless of their credibility. Then, the characters weren't shown at E3 because they were pushed back. Again, a little silly because it seem strange that Nintendo would show off so many characters (more than Brawl) and then half that. Not to mention that almost a year later we only know 6 characters. My favorite is that the information came from two different sources. Then, they say he didn't know Greninja because either him or the source doesn't know Pokemon (forget using Google or describing the characters). That's three different explanations to explain some of the issues with one rumor. See how it's more silly and preposterous. One could be possible. Two maybe. But three separate issues? It's like a bird with one wing. It just doesn't fly. Occam's Razor is the simplest answer is the best. So what's the simplest answer? He made it up. First he never said a source before because there was no rumor. No need to claim you have info until your right. Third, they weren't shown at E3 because, in the end, he didn't know anymore than the rest of us. And third, he gave a broad category because he doesn't have information. So it's safe to say a New Pokemon will be added. So I can explain all three with one answer. Because they are related, it makes more sense he made it up.

"But Smashchu! What about Wii Fit Trainer? He got that right." That is true. However, it was likely a lucky guess. "How can you say that. Isn't it silly and preposterous that he just guessed this character." Not necessarily. It has been shown that Wii Fit Trainer was talked about somewhat. However, it's not unreasonable to think that someone got her right. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of predictions made. It's possible that someone got that character right. Also, when you look a all the other evidence, it seems more likely he made it up rather than he had a source and there are a lot of suspicious instances. Again, it's weighting the evidence. What happened is that him and others committed the Texas Shapshooter Fallacy. I've mentioned it before here, but here is a quick refresher. It stems from a shooter firing at a barn. When he noticed the shots clustered, he drew a target on it. The same happened here. When he got an character not many people thought of, he drew the target. Just because he got something right doesn't mean he has inside information. Especially when you consider what I mentioned before. Also, it's not unlikely for people to guess characters. On 4Chan, minutes before, someone posted that "Suppose a new Pokemon was announced, who do you want." and he posted a picture of Greninja. Of course, he did better than Sal did, but no one thought he had inside information.

There are other things as well. One thing to look back is the Chaos Zero leak. He knew characters specific names and other content in the game (Final Destination, Stage Builder, and the Dragoon). Sal only said characters and nothing else which is unlikely because if someone had inside information, they would know more than just character names. Other rumors had similar information like character's abilities or other game content. Also, Sal's last rumor was done right before a direct. It seems strange that the guy would wait 10 months before giving more info, and do it right before Nintendo gives more info. Many people questions why he would lie. It would hurt his site's reputation. It's because it's click bait. Basically, the rumors exist for traffic. Here is what I mean. The website is beat by GameXplain and Malstrom's blog for numbers of searches. Note that Malstrom hasn't posted much recently. In otherwords, Sal's website is very no name. How can you improve searches? Why, have a fake rumor of course. And since he got Wii Fit Trainer right, it's even better. Now you can drive hits to your site. Why did he get information before the direct. Because the direct would bring in more hits for Smash info. It's also why he had a lot of safe guesses. So long as none of those characters are specifically deconfirmed, it's no problem.

You may wonder where I'm getting some of these later ideas from. Again, it all stems for the fact that I considered the evidence first, then drew a conclusion. Even though he got WFT right, there were still a lot of other issues that didn't make sense. Weighting the evidence, it seemed more likely he didn't know anything and was able to guess. It them drew from there and I can explain some more of the other small inconsistencies (why doesn't he have other information, why did the last leak come hours before the direct and not any time else in the last 10 months). It also explains why he made an account on Smashboards to make 1 post after the characters weren't shown at E3. One of the things about confirmation bias is that it usually happens when emotions take over. It's no surprise that a lot of people celebrated after Greninja came out and they can claim "They leak is true. See. See." The people here want it to be true. This is also why there is this double standard where if the littlest thing is wrong, the rumor is false whereas when this was wrong everyone ignored it. Looking back at the Brawl leaks, everyone hated them because they didn't fit what they wanted for the game. So much so that mods actually deleted them. I suspect there will be more of an outcry when a real leak comes though. I also expect many of the people listening to this one would be upset if such a situation occurred. To close, don't jump the gun. People were smart with the Plautena leak because they tried to disprove it first. By being unable to do so, they gave it credibility. It's credibility was earned, not assumed.

Well, that's that. There may be some editing and other issues I missed, but I need to head to bed. I wont really reply to this unless there is a question. Again, people who believe the leak wont change their minds and the roster will be whatever it is regardless. Till next time!

I applaud your conviction but man is this post is funny. Your first couple of paragraphs are laughable. You start off by trying to give us a psychology lesson. What a proper primer ... trying to use a common psychological phenomena as an explanation for why people don't listen to you. The problem with this mode of thought is it's an "everyone but me is insane" or "I am the only one thinking rationally and the people who disagree with me are thinking irrationally" or as you suggested -- suffering from cognitive dissonance. I find that to be hilariously hypocritical.

Here is an example of cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias:

If anything, this reveal adds further evidence that it's fake.

First, if Sol was telling the truth, where would he get the info. His source would likely be a part of the E3 staff and not a part of the development staff. It can't be the latter because, were it so, he would have had information that was all overe the place and not specifically for E3. He said the reveals were at E3, so we can assume it's the former.

Now, with Little Mac shown, we can see that all the Smash references on that stage have been swaps for Punch-Out references. The original rumor says that Mac was to be shown at E3. He latter recanted and said they were pushed back. but if that was the case, why did the stage change? The stage is an asset developed in the game and not one just used for promotion. Before, it was made in such a way as to not allude to Little Mac's presence in the game. If Sol is telling the truth, the E3 showing had to be planned and the staff later changed their mind. But if Little Mac was to be shown, why hide that it's a Punch-Out stage. The fact that they hid it in the first place suggest that Little Mac was never planned at all.

No one doubted Little Mac was going to be in. Him predicting it would be the same as if he predicted that stages were going to be in. The rumor has been a hoax from the beginning. It was a lucky guess that he rid with. I don't know why anyone believes it when he said it was a leak AFTER he had some of them right. Kids these days really lack critical thinking skills.

I'm bringing this up because you are so sure Sal is lying that you will completely disregard all rational thought and start making crazy assumptions. I tried to give all sorts of rational explanations as to why the graphics "changed" yet you were so sure that they were placeholder graphics and that they were only used to tease little mac and nothing else. You argued and argued about how it didn't make sense to cut a trailer with those graphics if little mac wasn't ever planned. Come to find out, there are two versions of the same stage and you were totally off.

If you have a good argument against the Sal leak I'm all ears. I don't mind eating crow if it turns out to be wrong ... I have no stake in it being right. Ridley isn't on his list -- and if we're talking about a dream roster ... neither is Geno. So believe me when I say I don't care if it's wrong. What I do care about, and I've stated this before, is people arguing with extremely flimsy arguments. You've been doing that since day one and you've already been proven wrong in regards to the boxing stage. I thought that would have been a proper lesson in rationality but apparently not.

Now I won't delve into the rest of your crazy post but I will say this. You're right about Greninja. I've been saying that since the beginning. Him saying a pokemon from X and Y is not necessarily getting that character right. To me, that guess doesn't really add to his predictions. It's a neutral guess to me at this point. It's so vague that to me it barely counts toward his predictions, if at all.

I will end this post with this. Your entire argument stems from the assumption that he's lying. In other words, a confirmation bias on your part, which is why you were so wrong about the boxing stage. You created this entire narrative you were so sure about but were completely wrong about. I've already stated why your arguments are biased in earlier posts. You still haven't realized how presumptuous you really are. They leave absolutely no room for any other theory ... To you he can only be a liar. There isn't even any room for him to be telling the truth and the leaker to be lying. Doesn't that seem a little odd to you? Tomorrow, Thursday or maybe Friday I'll deconstruct your long post. For now I'll say that you should really start to think about why you've been harping on this leak so much.

 

[papagenos]

I believe its important to keep being skeptical but at the same time Sal is the best we got right now and he has a pretty good track record (The ssb4 as well as other leaks). I am personally giving him the benefit of the doubt right now. However time will tell on how accurate the predictions actually are.

I don't think Sal likes to jeopardize his credibility. He has that on the line to a degree and its worth noting.

The fact that he DID jeopardize his credibility, by posting MORE characters right before the direct when, if any of those characters were proved to be say assist trophies or for example palutena still being part of pits final smash or something he'd have lost all the credibility from his E3 leak instantly.

This proves to me that he is legitimately getting information from a reliable source or else he would not have put his neck on the line when he could have lost all the credibility he had gained from a year of not being proven wrong in a mere hour after posting more "leaks".

Exponentially the more you leak the more chances something is wrong (if of course the information is wrong or fake).

So Sal posting more info right before the direct, only raised his chances of being discredited. He was not discredited. Therefore I think its only logical to say that Sal has REAL info or at least believes his source has real info, AND since that info has stood the test of time it is almost certainly true.

 

[Starphoenix]

I completely understand that leakers sometimes have incomplete access to information. It's just weird to me that the guy knows so many characters exactly, including some pretty oddball ones, but is then so vague on Pokemon.

Again, we don't know what level of access he or she has to the information. If this person were a play tester, for instance, chances are they'd see the names of the character every match and would be in less position to feign ignorance. However, if this was just some person within a marketing team dealing with promotional material or hearing things through the grapevines, then it wouldn't be hard to see why some of the names are a little looser.

All I know is I cannot wait for E3.

 

[Zhadgon]

For the people discussing the Pokemon X / Y, I show to my mother Greninja and she said if that was a squirrel, a fricking squirrel? I say to her that it was frog, you should have see her look when I told her that, in the end I understand that maybe the leaker didn´t know what Greninja was, if a frog, squirrel, dog, chameleon or even a monkey, but he guess it was a Pokemon compared to the other characters and having more of a humanoid form, it could explain again why he is saying Chorus Men when in reality he didn´t know there was similar character to them as Marshal from the same series.
.n_n.

 

[kataridragon]

Again, we don't know what level of access he or she has to the information. If this person were a play tester, for instance, chances are they'd see the names of the character every match and would be in less position to feign ignorance. However, if this was just some person within a marketing team dealing with promotional material or hearing things through the grapevines, then it wouldn't be hard to see why some of the names are a little looser.

All I know is I cannot wait for E3.

I would definitely say Greninja isnt very identifiable as a pokemon.... Pikachu sure everyone else not so much.

 

[TheTuninator]

Again, we don't know what level of access he or she has to the information. If this person were a play tester, for instance, chances are they'd see the names of the character every match and would be in less position to feign ignorance. However, if this was just some person within a marketing team dealing with promotional material or hearing things through the grapevines, then it wouldn't be hard to see why some of the names are a little looser.

"Pokemon from X and Y" is pretty much the only loose one, though. Maybe "animal crossing guy", though if I recall that had been deemed to obviously refer to Villager by proponents of the leak.

Like I said, I have no problem believing that leakers don't always have the complete picture. That prediction just sticks out like a sore thumb to me.

 

[alien803]

Sal, did the leaker say in his E-mail if the Chorus Men were from Rhythm Heaven or was it something you assumed?

 

[kataridragon]

Sal, did the leaker say in his E-mail if the Chorus Men were from Rhythm Heaven or was it something you assumed?

Im not Sal but are their other chorus men im not aware of??? (or anyone else not aware of?)

 

[Starphoenix]

"Pokemon from X and Y" is pretty much the only loose one, though. Maybe "animal crossing guy", though if I recall that had been deemed to obviously refer to Villager by proponents of the leak.

Like I said, I have no problem believing that leakers don't always have the complete picture. That prediction just sticks out like a sore thumb to me.

I guess it doesn't bother me because, as I said, I didn't even know who he was. After 700+ Pokémon it's hard to keep up, especially when you don't have an investment in the series. Has Greninja even been that widely promoted by Game Freak since X/Y? Genuine question since, again, I don't keep up with the series.

Though I suppose it can be said Greninja's foray into Sm4sh is promotion, therefore being a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts.

 

[Shroob]

I guess it doesn't bother me because, as I said, I didn't even know who he was. After 700+ Pokémon it's hard to keep up, especially when you don't have an investment in the series. Has Greninja even been that widely by Game Freak since X/Y? Genuine question since, again, I don't keep up with the series.

Honestly, no. It will be when Ash's Froakie evolves, but at the moment, it doesn't have anything officially over its peers, it's just really, really popular among the fans.

 

[Starbound]

I guess it doesn't bother me because, as I said, I didn't even know who he was. After 700+ Pokémon it's hard to keep up, especially when you don't have an investment in the series. Has Greninja even been that widely promoted by Game Freak since X/Y? Genuine question since, again, I don't keep up with the series.

The only Pokemon with any degree of promotion for X/Y have been the starters, the box legends and Sylveon.

No one knew that Greninja existed until leaks of him surfaced on 4chan in... late September I think.

 

[papagenos]

I guess it doesn't bother me because, as I said, I didn't even know who he was. After 700+ Pokémon it's hard to keep up, especially when you don't have an investment in the series. Has Greninja even been that widely promoted by Game Freak since X/Y? Genuine question since, again, I don't keep up with the series.

Though I suppose it can be said Greninja's foray into Sm4sh is promotion, therefore being a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts.

Ash has a Froakie in the anime.

"Protean' Greninja (a greninja with its hidden ability) was really popular last fall when the game first came out among competitive players.

Thats about it.

 

[Starphoenix]

The only Pokemon with any degree of promotion for X/Y have been the starters, the box legends and Sylveon.

No one knew that Greninja existed until leaks of him surfaced on 4chan in... late September I think.

Kind of ironic when you think about it: Greninja has been the subject of two (maybe) leaks for two separate games.

 

[WonderSmash]

Doubtful, given that he had no problem naming Wii Fit Trainer.

Well think about what you just said. Wii Fit Trainer is the only way anyone could describe who and what that character is. It's not like Wii Fit starts and the lady goes "Hello and welcome to Wii Fit, my name is Wii Fit Trainer of the Milwaukee Fit Trainers. My father was Senator Robert Fit Trainer who served the state of Wisconsin proudly for 8 years" etc etc etc

Saying Greninja is incredibly specific compared to that.


Wow I went off with that wft intro