Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Al-kīmiyā']

Kamek want=2%

Slime prediction=5%

Nomination=Neku and Shiki

 

[Deleted member]

Yes! We're back! :D Hahaha! I missed doing this!
Kamek
Chance: 4%
Kamek is seen by many to be the villain in the Yoshi franchise other than Baby Bowser. Not only that, but Kamek plays a role in several games outside of the Yoshi series, such as the New Super Mario Bros. games and Mario & Luigi games for example. However, the Yoshi series getting a second rep, or rather the need of one, is rather debatable. I feel as though that the Baby Mario Bros. would probably represent the series better as a newcomer, but I think that Yoshi himself is good enough to represent the franchise. Another issue I see is that the Yoshi series is strongly connected to the Mario series, so I feel as though it would conflict his chances as he would go against Mario characters like Bowser Jr. and Toad. Not only that, but if we include the Donkey Kong series as it's a sub-series of the Mario series (Wario's series is also in this category, but I don't find too many suitable reps from that series), then Kamek would have to compete against King K. Rool and Dixie Kong. He does have some moveset potential that Sakurai is looking for; he could use his wand to attack and throw some projectiles. If there was a second Yoshi rep, it would most likely be Kamek or the Baby Mario Bros. However, with the roster size being somewhat limited, I don't think that Kamek has much of a shot.
Want: 5%
I would support Kamek. But, again, I find him to conflict with some potential Mario and Donkey Kong reps, so I rather have Bowser Jr. and King K. Rool.
Slime Prediction: 1.3%
I feel as though Slime will do slightly better than Owain and Sandbag.
It's a shame that we have to say goodbye to those puns when his day comes...

Nominations: Bowser Jr. 4x, Captain Rainbow 1x

 

[SuperBrawler]

Kamek
Chance 9%
Most potential Yoshi rep but Yoshi has like no chance of a new rep anyway.
Want 13%
Yoshi rep not needed, but would be cool.

Slime prediction
2%

Noms
Meowth x5

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Kamek: 5%
Want: 5%
Slime: 8%

Nominate:
Toad x 2
Ridley x 3

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Kamek

Likelihood: 3% - I just don't see any way for this to happen.
Want: 0% - Definitely no..he'd be such a waste of a spot IMO. If he got in, they might as well add a Goomba and Lakitu too...

Slime: 7%

Nomz:
Snake x5

 

[Chandeelure]

Kamek
-Chances:10%
-Want:0%
I want Shy Guy and Kamek is a problem for that
-Slime prediction:5%
Nomination:Bandana Waddle Dee x5

 

[Starcutter]

oh god.

If he got in, they might as well add a Goomba and Lakitu too...

so much facepalm.


(I guess that I should have really seen that coming)


EDIT: forgot why I came back here in the first place
[collapse=musics]
Mini-Boss: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSBTSW_B81Y
Big Boss: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q--ywLM84Ng
Final Boss: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbFQh32xlh0
Castle Fortress: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZnu5xRa-Z4
Kamek's Theme (sticker star): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MznBJEdNqXQ
[/collapse]

 

[Cheezey Bites]

-Slime prediction:-100% ,seriously 0%

You honestly think he'll get 0% in likelihood vote? 3 people have nominated for him (though Groose more in sympathy for me whose given the vast majority of the votes), and I have an army of Slime Dumplings as my display picture and you think no-one's gonna give him a chance?

You're named after a great Pokémon, don't throw your prediction away!

 

[Chandeelure]

haha sorry,maybe that was exaggerated,I will edit it XD

 

[Groose]

You honestly think he'll get 0% in likelihood vote? 3 people have nominated for him (though Groose more in sympathy for me whose given the vast majority of the votes), and I have an army of Slime Dumplings as my display picture and you think no-one's gonna give him a chance?

You're named after a great Pokémon, don't throw your prediction away!

I'm going to be honest: I don't see Slime as having much of a chance... but with the mad popularity of the Dragon Quest series, anything is possible.

oh god. so much facepalm. (I guess that I should have really seen that coming)

EDIT: forgot why I came back here in the first place
[collapse=musics]
Mini-Boss: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSBTSW_B81Y
Big Boss: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q--ywLM84Ng
Final Boss: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbFQh32xlh0
Castle Fortress: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZnu5xRa-Z4
Kamek's Theme (sticker star): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MznBJEdNqXQ
[/collapse]

I tried to point out that he is an important Yoshi villain in the opening post. Didn't really work.

I'm in the process of updating music now.

Slime: 8.7%
He's gotta get more than Bomberman, right? He's still the mascot for Squeenix afterall...

(I've finally made it to the plop! Can't wait for Goo-morrow! It'll soon by my shot at the slime light! I may be goo ooze-ly pleased, but that slurp-ainly won't stop me being hyped! It's goo-ing to be blubbly excellent! Slime jelly excited! I'd better score better than Goo-wain at least! Goo say slime goo-ing overboard with the puns? Nonesense! That's im-plop-able!)

Keep in mind: Bomberman was once a mascot, too. Hudson. They were pretty big and had a relationship with Nintendo as strong as even Square's. True, he's in Limbo in Konami now, but he wasn't always that way.

And all of those Slime puns that you must have been thinking of over the DDoS!

 

[Yams]

Kamek:
Likelihood: 10% If yoshi gets another rep, then he's in. But I doubt Yoshi will get a rep.
Want: 0% He seems like he'd be awkward to play as, and I'd rather have many other characters.

Slime: 5%

Duck Hunt Dog x5

 

[Glaciacott]

Time to get back in the game

Kamek
Chances - 5%
I just don't see it happening. It's already unlikely enough that we'll get a new Mario rep due to the main players being featured already (And Toad still being in Peach's arsenal ... welp). With that said, getting a Yoshi rep, considering that the Yoshi series is pretty much just more of the Mario universe, is extremely ambitious. And even then, Kamek is more unlikely in the sense he's not a deserving main villain for that series seeing how all he does is work for Baby Bowser.

Want - 1%
Not really interesting in him getting a spot. I'd be surprised and shocked, not really in a positive way.

Predictions
Slime
7.65% - Most people will realize his chances are not that goo-d.

Nominations
x5 Ashley

 

[APC99]

Kamek:

Likelihood: 20%. A bit high? Hardly. I gave him this rating because he's a character that expands upon a franchise with only one representative since the original, similar to how we got Lucas, Diddy Kong, Meta Knight and King Dedede in Brawl. Also, he's a major character in such franchise, probably the only one left except for the Baby Brothers, who don't even DO anything in such games except for crying and pooping their diapers. Also, no to Shy Guy, why would ANYBODY decide having the generic enemy be better than a major character/villain?. Similar to other "main Mario characters" featured in some form on the battlefield (Mario, Luigi, Peach and Toad, Bowser, Wario, Donkey Kong, Diddy Kong, Yoshi) (also excluding Dr. Mario because he is indeed just Mario with more drugs than usual) Kamek is a regular in spin-offs and was even SUPPOSED TO TAKE DK'S SPOT IN MARIO KART 64. However, I still highly doubt Sakurai will consider adding another Yoshi rep, he probably just goes "Oh, the Yoshi series. (silent pause.) What would you say about Wii Fit Trainer?"
Want: 50%. It's an interesting story. Although I truly want a cool magic user that would be the equivalent of Ashley in Crusade, I also really think that he'd be pushed to the side if he got in over Ridley, K. Rool, Little Mac or Mewtwo. For my wants in the general Mushroom Universe, he ranks about 3rd place (King K. Rool and Toad go over him) and is tied with Geno. So, even though he'd be a cool character, he's not my top priority.

Slime: 5%. I can't really see the Slime being a Super Smash Bros. character (maybe it's the fact he doesn't have anything truly to fight with besides his "gelatinous form") but I'm sure that other people want him, and I would like a Square-Enix representative, just usually it's my pipe dream Geno. (See what I did there? No? Poop.)

Nominations:

Quote (Cave Story) x5

 

[SmashShadow]

Kamek: 15%
He will get usurped by most Mario reps before he gets in but there's still a possibility he gets in cause of the new Yoshi games. He suffers from the fact that Yoshi titles have all the same characters as Mario titles.

Want: 10%
Very Meh

5x Impa

Slime: 5%

 

[Fastblade5035]

Kamek

Chance: 3%
I think people are being VERY generous with this.
He's not getting in as a Mario character, and there's even a chance (A good chance, mind you) that Yoshi won't even get another character.

Want: 1%
SmashShadow said it perfectly.

Slime: 2.43%

Noms:
Ephraim x5

 

[SchAlternate]

Dunno if this has being added already, but:
Boss - Tetris Attack
I don't know if this appears in Panel de Pon as well, but if it doesn't, then this could go to Kamek's music section. Otherwise, it may also go to Lip's section.

 

[Smasher 101]

Kamek's chances: 15% - Is the most likely Yoshi newcomer, but the chances of a Yoshi newcomer aren't too high.
Want: 50%

Slime prediction: 2%

Meowth x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Kamek: 8% He is not likely, but it would (1) add another villain to the roster. and (2) add a second yoshi character, a character from the original 12 that have not gotten a rep
Want: 60% I really want him in but I would not be to disappointed if he doesn't get the cut

Slime: 1.99%

yay I only missed 1 day. I had been checking up on the site daily but it messed things up when my computer over-heated and my tablet broke (the day after my computer lol?)

x5 Bowser Jr. now that toad is basically out of the way I think he has a better shot this go around

 

[Xenigma]

It's been so long, I'm not even sure how to rate anymore, but one must try!

Kamek - 2%
I'll profess to not knowing much about him, but even if he's the second most important character in the Yoshi games, honestly, do the Yoshi games really need a second rep? There's just too many characters more deserving of inclusion at the moment, both in terms of popularity and unrepped series. The one thing that could change that is a Donkey Kong-style revival of the Yoshi series that thrusts it back into the spotlight, and I'm pretty sure that isn't happening any time soon, so I'm comfortable rating quite low.
Want - 5% - Would be a very underwhelming inclusion, but he gets a bit of percentage simply due to moveset potential.

Slime Prediction - 1.25%
This feels like an Owain/Sandbag round: some benefit of the doubt ratings, maybe one or two overly optimistic fans, and a whole mess of zeroes.

Nominations
Black Shadow x5

 

[jaytalks]

Kamek
Chance 15%
Nintendo seems to like Yoshi alone.But if there is another Yoshirep, this is it.
Want 100%
Yoshi always seems lonely.

Slime prediction
3.45%
Nomination
Impa x 5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Kamek 4.5%

predict Slime 9%

Ghirahim x5

 

[Forde]

Kamek

Chance: 5%

Want: 5%

Predictions
Slime 24%

Nominations:
Cloud Strife x5

 

[NickerBocker]

Kamek

Chance: 12%
Hes not too likely, but amongst the Yoshi series, he has one of if not the highest chance.

Want: 60%
I can see myself liking his inclusion, but I wouldnt be let down too bad if he missed out. A magikoopa character would be pretty interesting if you ask me.

Slime: 13.2%

Noms: Rayman x5

 

[DukeofShorts]

Kamek chance: 14%
Not too important of a character.

Kamek want: 30%
He could shoot circles, triangles, and squares at people. That could be fun.

Slime percentage: 6.9%
Arms and legs… that is all.

Anthony Higgs x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Kamek:

Likelihood: 5%

Want: 85%

Slime Prediction: 2% - I'm gonna miss Cheezey Bites' puns ;_;

Nominations:
5x Snake

 

[Cheezey Bites]

I'm going to be honest: I don't see Slime as having much of a chance... but with the mad popularity of the Dragon Quest series, anything is possible.



Keep in mind: Bomberman was once a mascot, too. Hudson. They were pretty big and had a relationship with Nintendo as strong as even Square's. True, he's in Limbo in Konami now, but he wasn't always that way.

And all of those Slime puns that you must have been thinking of over the DDoS!

Where-as I feel he's one of the more likely third parties because of said mad popularity, and of course the preexisting Nintendo crossovers. Part of the reason I compare to Bomberman is the similarities, SlimexMario crossovers (and that one time in warioware) came fairly late to the party compared to Bomberman I admit, but given they're more recent, Dragon Quest's insane popularity in Japan and it's Nintendo heritage I feel he's a similar situation but without the Konami limbo; though I'm clearly one of the minority who think this way.

And slurprisingly no, they all just came to me during the posting. I really should have stockpiled over the break ready for tomorrow...

Arms and legs… that is all.

I accept it's hard to imagine, but one of the core mechanics of his own (DQ spin-off) games is picking things up and throwing them, including enemies, rather dispelling the usual grab problem armless individuals have. Infact the lack of appendages would make his animations easier if anything. Though you are entitled to your opinion ofcourse.

 

[FalKoopa]

How's everyone?

Kamek: 10%
He has made numerous appearances in the Mario series as of late, has potential, and is the main villain of the Yoshi series. Unfortunately, he also seems like a perfect Assist Trophy.

Want: 75%
A character who rides a broom and uses magic attacks is a cool character in my book. Part of the reason why I support Ashley as well.

Slime prediction: 9%
I think there will be a few who will give him high scores.

Ashley (WarioWare) x 5

 

[Sid-cada]

Kamek (Finally!)

Chance -12% - Some things are going for him, but simply put he is way out of his league in completion. Dixie Kong, K. Rool, Toad, and Jr. combined simply leaves so very little room that he barely can be called in the running.

Want - 63% - A mischievous magic user is something I can get behind, and certainly would be interesting, but I don't fully support him.


Blue Slime Prediction - 3% - Third Party. End of Story.

Nominations
Anna X5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Winning twice in a row has numbed the pain of nearly breaking my jaw today. Thanks Groose!


Kamek time:
Chance: 8%
Normally I'd suggest higher than this for any character, but I guess the whole Toad and Ridley tease(easily two of the most obvious Nintendo all stars left to be included in Smash, and yet have 'possibly' been deconfirmed).

Kamek is easily the most wanted second Yoshi series character blasting Baby Mario/Luigi/Bowser and Shy Guy out the water in terms of importance to the series and sheer popularity.

Sadly Yoshi's series is often ignored, with even the titular dinosaur being the only Smash 64 starter veterans to NOT appear in the E3 trailer, as well as Yoshi being the last Smash 64 starter to be revealed for Brawl, NO Assist Trophy and his frankly pitiful role within the SSE where he is the least important member of the hero team, not getting a big dramatic intro and instead merely waking up and wandering onto the character selection screen in time to join Link's big dramatic cinematic.
Not to mention Yoshi in Brawl feels incomplete himself(short reach, not being able to eat items, one of his trademark abilities, something even WARIO can do.)

So unfortunately Yoshi(the series) falls into the same trap as F-Zero and seems doomed to forever remain as one rep. Kamek would however be an awesome assist and very easy to implement with the Growth and shrink modes already implemented.

In other words I think Kamek's biggest hurdle is he's part of a series that doesn't get much love from Sakurai.

Want: 25%
He's not top of my want list, or even one I'd consider supporting, but I'm not against more Yoshi representation(obviously judging by my name) and Kamek would be perfect for this role.

Slime: 4.2%
The Square character I'm the least against, but I still don't think he has a snowballs chance in hell considering Square isn't guaranteed a 3rd Party spot, and if it is he still has to compete with Sora, Black Mage/Ninja/White Mage/Moogle(his fellow Sports Mix allies who aren't terrible choices), the Mario/Square mix of Geno and Mallow(neither have a chance) and the ever ridiculously popular Cloud Strife who appears in Kingdom Hearts games on Nintendo consoles and THAT IS IT.

If there was any justice Slime would have better chances, but Dragon Quest nearly always gets overshadowed by Final Fantasy when it comes to Square.

Votes:
X 5 Meowth
X 5 Duck Hunt Dog

 

[Wegenbarth]

KAMEKU

Chances: 15%
As there are still many more important and recognizeable characters, I don't really suspect him to make it in Smash4. And somehow Sakurai doesn't pay much attention to Yoshi ;_;

Want: 100%
An (mostly evil) mage character, who is more or less the Ridley of the Yoshi series. This character would make Smash4 even more instabuy, as here isn't even one character whom I would want more. (Maybe except for Ashles or Tharja, kehe)

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Slime: 4.2%
The Square character I'm the least against, but I still don't think he has a snowballs chance in hell considering Square isn't guaranteed a 3rd Party spot, and if it is he still has to compete with Sora, Black Mage/Ninja/White Mage/Moogle(his fellow Sports Mix allies who aren't terrible choices), the Mario/Square mix of Geno and Mallow(neither have a chance) and the ever ridiculously popular Cloud Strife who appears in Kingdom Hearts games on Nintendo consoles and THAT IS IT.

If there was any justice Slime would have better chances, but Dragon Quest nearly always gets overshadowed by Final Fantasy when it comes to Square

Slime's an Enix character, though I see where you're confused; Enix bought out Square when they were about to bankrupt trying to make FFX, and have never been as profitable since (to a point of pretty shocking figures in the last few years).

I'll hold my arguments for Smile 'till tomorrow (and the above is pertinent), but just thought I'd inform you.

 

[BlitznBurst]

Kamek chances: 10%. As a Mario villain he's not all that notable, and the Yoshi series isn't even all that big enough to guarantee two reps at all. Add in the Baby Bros., who as it stands are far more well-known than Kamek, and he has hardly any chance at all.

Want; 15%. Don't care for him as a character, and if I had to choose between sorcerers slash baby sitters, I'd much rather go for Twinrova.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Kamek
Chance: 5%
Want: 53%

Slime prediction: 4%

Nominations: Chrom and Lucina team x5

 

[Groose]

Kamek's Chances: 5%
Kamek isn't popular or obvious. His name usually pops up when you think of "reps"... but take away the whole "Yoshi Representative" mentality and he just isn't an obvious choice. He doesn't even appear in Mario spin-offs.

Kamek Want: 50%
He'd be a surprise. Groose likes surprises. He'd also be a projectile spammer. Groose likes projectiles. But he's not really important or iconic. Groose likes his icons.

Slime Prediction: 4.3%
Slime is an Eastern character. He's out of his element in this primarily Western board.

Anthony Higgs x5

DAY OVER​

​

RETURN OF GROOSE​

 

[Groose]

Kamek (Yoshi's Island)
11.34% chance
36.06% want

Kamek struggled to find a groove in yesterday's contest. Perhaps people have grown more pessimistic over the course of the DDoS? At the very least, he did OK in want.

Today we'll be rating Slime of Dra-goo-n Quest. Does that slimeball have what it takes goo take the rankings by storm? Please leave your chance and want on Slime today.

Tomorrow sees a veteran return to the ring... but his entrance will be a stealthy one. Please predict how Solid Snake will fare in tomorrow's game.

I'd like to take this chance to remind you that any character can be renominated at any time.

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Slime

Likelihood: 1% - Honestly, I would be VERY surprised if he did make it.

Want: 0% - Not really... Although I loved the pums while they lasted

Snake: 69%

Nomiantions:
Prmid x5

 

[Gunla]

Slime:

Chances: 9%- Slime appeals to some people, but I don't think he has good chances.

Want: 3%- I have never liked the design of Slime, and I really do not like Slime for that matter.. Furthermore, I don't like all the slime puns.

Snake:

Chances: 54%- People liked Snake. I like Snake. Snake is awesome.

Nominating....
Ghirahim X 5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

I'll hold off on puns 'till the end because I've some justification and arguments to bring up. This is going to be a long post.

Slime:
Before I start on the character himself I've got to talk about squeenix franchises, so here goes:
[collapse="Why I think Dragon Quest is more likely the Final Fantasy:"]
Slime is the mascot of Enix's most popular franchise: Dragon Quest. Dragon Quest holds a difficult place in jRPG circles as it has technically undersold Squares Final Fantasy to this date, however this is mostly due to the extensive international popularity of FF, and lack of interest in DQ. I can similarly compare Kingdom Hearts, with it's far more lucrative US (and passable EU) sales driving an overall victory over any individual DQ game (obvious given America's love for Disney). [I will not be comparing Chrono or SaGa series despite my own personal love for them because of poor sales comparatively].

So if it's undersold FF (by 40 million copies no less) does sit in a difficult place? Primarily it's the Japanese market, where Dragon Quest still receives better sales, though not as notably as back in the SNES days. [specific data based on vgchartz' game database shows DQ 9,8,7 and 3 all outselling FF8 (the best selling ff game in Japan), though I've checked other sources and seen DQs Japanese domination too with varying other numbers] Noting that Japan is the primary market for jRPGs and likely the market that would be most excited for a big Squeenix character reveal it would make sense from a marketing standpoint to choose a character who they would be more interested in.
Further confusing things is the merchandise sales. Dragon Quest keyrings, toys, posters etc. as well as the highly profitable Dragon Quest Lucida's Bar and delicious Slime dumplings in my avatar all could easily be counted in the popularity of the franchise. Moogle keychains are indeed popular in Japan, but going purely by personal experience Dragon Quest wins in the merchandise department (sadly no data).
I've also seen data [though was an idiot and didn't save the source, sorry, you'll have to trust me here] to show that Dragon Quest is significantly more profitable than Final Fantasy (unsurprising given the huge budgets of FF games, and the need for international marketing, and let's not forget Square were bailed out by Enix, further suggesting DQ's profitability). As a business I suspect Squeenix will be more interested in promoting the more profitable series with smash.

So let's step away from the direct comparison exactly and look at the culture and history at Nintendo as a comparison (an important thing for a Nintendo all-stars fighter). Dragon Quest far outsold the final fantasy series in the NES and SNES games, and even managed 4 (of 6, with the reason asserted to be religious connotations of the 5th games weddings and the problems of putting a birth into video games back in those days, not lack of interest) games hitting US soil to final fantasy's 3/4 (of 6/7 depending on if you count mystic quest, though there is the possibility of censorship being to blame I've not heard any talk of it, and I feel it's more likely a lack of sales/profitability). The past has Dragon Quest in the lead in Japan with an arguable split in the west dependant on what rumours you listen to, so let's look at now.
Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest both made the leap to Playstation in their 7th instalment, but Dragon Quest seemed far happier to get back on Nintendo, still keeping the DQM series Nintendo exclusive, as well as bringing out DS versions of the PS remakes, a 3DS version of the previously PS exclusive 7 (which still needs a US release date ) and more recently releasing DQ9, 10 and the entire Rocket Slime side series solely on Nintendo platforms. Heck, the series has been published by Nintendo in NA/EU since Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 2, which certainly shows a closeness between DQ and Ninty. Final Fantasy has retained a more PS centric release strategy for the main series though Xbox has had second fiddle on FFXIII. FF has re-released some of their NES and SNES games on Nintendo handhelds (with better translations and some optional dungeons) though, so it's not completely out of Nintendo's good books there, Plus some of the side games have hit Nintendo exclusive with Crystal Chronicles and Revenant Wings (plus the FF3 and 4 DS version not getting any other port if you count those), which is great too, though the main series certainly hasn't come back. That said, the Chocobo series has continued on Nintendo consoles, so you can argue that balanced things out, but it's still not published by Nintendo in the west...
And then comes crossovers, which they both score fairly evenly on. FF has had hoops 3 on 3, sports mix and Culex from Mario RPG, while DQ has had 2 Itadaki Street game and Sports Mix; but one thing I think important to point out is Slime was in all 3 DQ crossovers.
This line of thought is far closer than the last, but I still think Dragon Quarter wins it because of the main series' return and the Famicom/Super Famicom DQ victory. And that's just on the Nintendo side, on Squeenix' Side they've been distancing FF from Nintendo more and more since the PSP and Vita, separating the two franchises for the two consoles; the decision is ultimately theres, and looking at the way they're treating the series I feel they consider DQ the Nintendo series, and FF the Sony one.

So let's now compare mascots. Final Fantasy has three: the Chocobo (well known as mount, though he had his spin off with the Chocobo series), and Moogle who's got more merchandise and also appeared in chocobo dungeon, and ofcourse the black mage, who's main series credentials should make him more important than the horsebird, but in Square's eyes just doesn't. Slime on the other hand is a far more obvious mascot to his series, and Enix as a whole, in fact Square-Enix as a whole tend to use him as the mascot due to his greater domestic appeal. In my opinion Slime's off shot series also far better suits Smash given its focus on action, jumping, grabbing and throwing than a Mystery Dungeon game like Chocobo's, though I guess it's all subjective.
Again, 1 clear mascot or 1 of 3. I think the one is far less likely to annoy fans, and far more indicative of the series it represents.

I further the way Square and Enix work, both together and apart. They are notoriously domestic centric, Square less so given their franchise being a bigger success overseas than in japan, but look at their recent push into phone games and you'll see both sides of the company consider Japanese sales more important (which is understandable as a Japanese company). Again I think this makes Slime more likely.
Square is also notorious for being controlling over their franchises, particularly Final Fantasy, giving few people the right to make merchandise, controlling any game their characters are involved in, and being fairly anti-doujin. Enix on the other hand care a lot less, allowing Slime Dumplings for years before they started their own (and even then you can buy non-enix slime dumplings around Japan), assumedly considering it free advertising, letting the franchise out to other developers in both making new games and the DS remakes (Chunsoft and now Level-5 most notably). They're far more open with their products, and likely more willing to let Sakurai have the character in his game. This is probably the biggest reason I think Slime has more chance than an FF character.
[/collapse]


Now for the point of the thread:

Chance: 40%
[collapse="Reasoning"]
So with my reasonings clear I personally feel 90% sure Dragon Quest would be chosen over Final Fantasy by Square Enix, and 90% sure by Sakurai (he's a DQ fan too, which certainly helps, but he's also looking for that something special in 3rd parties, and that Nintendo connection, DQ has that in bundles, far more than FF; there's a small chance of Geno, but I think FF and Geno are only about 5% each). Given it's the Mascot I am 99% certain Squeenix will want him over a hero, and 89% that Sakurai would pick him over another character (as a DQ fan he likely has a favourite he may consider over [1% lost there, because he wouldn't bring that much to the table over Isaac or someone], and may be worried about the no arms thing too; though he did okay Ivysaur, so I personally doubt he's that blind to possibilities [10% less for blindness [3% or so there], more for thinking making the move set work would be a waste of time]).
So, if he gets to the table with Square the character ending up being Slime works out 71%, I feel the rest of it is mostly disagreements and about half of these could be talked out back to making Slime 85.5% likely at this stage.
So now we have to consider how likely it is the conversation starts, and I see three major ways this could happen:
1. Sakurai wants a Square Enix Rep (probably Slime). Given Squeenix's power in the jRPG market it wouldn't be surprising, and he's a DQ fan. I feel Slime really is a special case as Sakurai wants, so I think this has a fairly high chance of being the case, about 60%, which is certainly lower than Megaman got, but has one of the highest chances for a 3rd party in my opinion.
2. Squeenix want in smash! I don't see why they wouldn't, it'd be great to boost the DQX sales (and possibly make it worthwhile to do a Wii U US/EU release please). It'd also help DQ get more of a foothold in the west (as it did for Fire Emblem) which they really don't need to do for FF. I know Squeenix are notorious for their 'we work alone' attitude, but that's the square side, and even they're opening up to Disney and Nintendo (Sports Mix guys). Enix should be positively up for it, I don't see any negative effect this could have for their business. I say 85% just to be conservative, in case they want to wait for the call. There's another 10% they'd be up for it if they get the call imho.
3. Geno Assist Trophy. Or possibly Forest Maze theme. Forest Maze was even considered for Brawl, so it's gotta have a high chance, so the chances for that call being made (without a Square Enix rep idea) probably make up another 30% or so? I'll say 20% to be conservative again.
Even if this happens I see the 95% they'd want a Rep (not Geno), and would argue for it with Geno/Forest Maze as a bargaining tool. Sakurai doesn't seem like one to back down, but it's Squeenix, and Slime's already a special case in my eyes, so I'll give a 50/50 chance they can argue their own rep in if this call is made.

So, time for more math:

Sakurai making a call: 60% * 95% (they'd be up for slime) = 57%
Sakurai for Geno: 20% * 95% * 50% = 9.5%
Total = 66.5%
With the other 20% I see the argument being similarly likely at 50%, because Sakurai has previously been up for 3rd parties offering to be in the game, and because he's not being threatened with not getting Geno (or possibly because he sees an opportunity to get Geno using it as a bargaining tool himself).
Squeenix calling: 85% * 50% (agreement) * 20% (Squeenix calls first) = 8.5%


Total of a call getting to character choice stage = 75% (surprisingly neat)

Multiply those by the chances of both choosing Slime: 75% * 85.5% = 64% (surprisingly Nintenod apt)

Then comes where the real issue lies!
Legality: It's a lot easier to make a crossover in Japan than the UK, but I've seen so many fall apart within the same company while working where I am, let alone between separate business entities. I think Squeenix's team of lawyers will be some of the least forgiving in Japanese video-gaming, and Nintendo's won't be that lax (EVO anyone), but Sakurai bridging the gap and the chance for both to be interested in this make it a lot more likely they'll find a way to sort out the kinks. I still give a 25% chance things will fall through somewhere in the process though, just 'cos cross company works are hard to pull off.
48% chance remains.

And even if he gets this far he's not out of the woods:
Square wouldn't be involved, but Squeenix may have veered too close to the over involvement side of things and try and tell Sakurai what to do, I don't see it as likely, but I also don't see it that likely that Sakurai will tolerate it that much (though he seemingly did for Sonic's colour palettes). Let's say there's a 10% chance they'll meddle (I think I'm being generous here, given it's Enix and Level-5 haven't complained, but let's just say 10%). There's then a small chance there'll be a big problem they'll argue about (I say 25% of this); now Slime's a great character, and Sakurai's a DQ fan, but I still see him not taking it too well, so they have to try and sort things out without looking cool with each other, and thus breaking the ties, let's be pessimistic and say there's only 30% chance they can work through this potential problem. Well there's 1.75% of that 64% gone. This major meddling could then put them way behind schedule, so let's make that up to 2%. Even minor meddling can put things behind, and things can fall behind just naturally, or be lower priority than first parties, so let's say 50% the rest of the minor meddling stops Slime hitting the game (pessemistic), and take another 10% from the remaining to say he just wouldn't anyways. That gets us to 84% chance he reaches the game if everything works out between the companies.

48% * 84% (I honestly didn't plan these numbers) = 40%

My numbers are anything but accurate so I kept to the nearest half percent at all times.

I know others will disagree with my reasoning, but I thought I should put it all down, so you can see how I got to my chance. He is in my opinion the second most likely 3rd part Newcomer left (Pac Man wouldn't be first if it wasn't for Namco's involvement in the game either, even if I think he'd be cool).
[/collapse]


Want: 1,000,000,000%
Want: 100%

My single most wanted newcomer, as should be obvious by the avatar, my nominations, the puns, Groose's references to my puns, everyone else's references to my puns, and having Slime in my signature. I think he'd be great as a character, fun, interesting, unique and entertaining. I feel he's got great move set potential, and he could have so many different play styles based on what's chosen I'd be really excited to see how he'd feel. I also feel it'll really open people's ideas up to fighters with different body shapes (Ridley says hello), and do so in a way people won't forget like Ivysaur. As for the game, I think it'd have a big impact on the Smash hype in Japan, and have a big ipact on Dragon Quest's popularity over in the west (and bring Dragon Quest X online over, the DQ7 3DS, and hopefully even get a DQ8 3DS done in Japan, and bought over, or Rocket Slime 3?).
So ya, I really want Slime in Smash 4 guys!




Snake: 50%
Honestly it could go either way, I don't have a clue.

Knuckles*2
Tails*2
Chrom & Lucina*1




A poem for this occasion:

Slime almost done, It's been goo-reat fun, But no more slime for puns.
Slime sorry guys, Dry your goo-man eyes, I can't stand goo-dbyes,
But the slime has finally come.

It's been blubbly here, With goo guys all near, Friends of my jelly sphere.
But he reached the plop, It's his slime to slop, As I nominate a goo crop,
As the slime has finally won.

These puns I use, Slime sad to l-ooze.. Slime sorry Gr-ooze!
But slurp-ainly though, Juice trying to be slow, They've glop to go,
Because the slime is finally done.


Slushed one question goomains;


So what do I goo now?
That the slime has finally gone.

Spoiler

Vote for Tails and Knuckles

 

[Starcutter]

Slime: 10% he's really iconic. but is he more iconic then the black mage? ....yeah, maybe.

Want 2% is REALLY uninteresting. we already got a blob in smash, and that one has ARMS. and he's pink.

Snake 70% tasty

Noms
Lucario x4
Phoenix Wright

 

[YoshiandToad]

Slime

Chance: 22%
Only this high because Cheezy's essay is actually a really good read and brings up some points I didn't know(like Sakurai being a DQ fan). Baring in mind Slime has crossed over with at least the Mario crew in the past(much like the rumoured Pac-Man, and Sonic just before Brawl) and I'd say he has a decent chance. Shame he's a third party or I'd score higher.

Want: 55%
Not big on Dragon Quest. Least not yet. I wasn't interested in Fire Emblem until recently either and that's 100% down to Smash. Also it's not Final Fantasy, which is always a plus for me as the more likely candidates from that aren't on Nintendo consoles.

Snake: 73.8%
Predicting he'll score low for a Brawl vet but most will be annoyed to see him disappear.

Nominations:

Meowth X 5