Snake
Popularity: Snake is a popular video game character. The question is how popular he is among Nintendo fans and Smash fans, and how many of his fans might consider getting a Wii U/3DS on the basis of him being in. I don't know how much the overlap is, but I imagine Sonic blows him out of the water on that count, and I think Simon Belmont and Bomberman are probably pretty equivalent - less popular overall, but more Nintendo-associated (if the 3DS is like the DS, it will be the system to own for classic Castlevania fans).
Competitive types who care more about the move set than the actual character like him, but who gives a ****? Balance the game well and make sure the other characters have interesting move sets and I doubt they'd be that bothered (other than the Snake mains who have to learn someone new... something most of them would do anyway if Snake wasn't top tier).
Relevancy: You know the only two original Metal Gear games to appear on Nintendo? Snake's Revenge on the NES (1990) and Metal Gear Solid (often referred to as Ghost Babel) on the GBC (2000). The Metal Gear port on the NES did play a big role in the series getting where it is today, I'll admit. But Nintendo sales today account for a tiny fraction of the series total sales. And Nintendo still doesn't get the games when they're current. The way things are going, maybe MGS5 will come to Nintendo by the end of the Wii U's lifespan, or on Nintendo's next console.
I mean, think about this: Even on handhelds, Sony gets all the new games. The DS and 3DS were clearly the better handhelds to develop for in terms of install base, but not even that will get an exclusive or even new MGS game onto Nintendo.
Aside from that, he doesn't fit in tonally that well. Bomberman's cartoony feel would fit in Smash very well. Simon Belmont is still more "mature" but the fantasy focus and gameplay make Castlevania kinda like a cross between Kid Icarus and Metroid. More macabre with the more gruesome enemies and blood, but not too much IMO. So I think Simon would fit in much better than Snake.
Design: Snake's design is obviously unique. I think it needs some balancing. He's mainly popular among competitive types since he has a harder learning curve (some of the difficulty also comes from the fact that his smashes are more like specials, so if you're used to the other characters you have to relearn when to use smashes vs. tilts). I'm not a huge fan of playing as him personally though.
Also, dat ass.
Roster: As I mentioned with Slime, there are some other characters he might be competing against in a way. Depending on how many 3rd party slots there are and who's interested in getting a character in, he might be competing against Pac-Man, a Square Enix character, Ray-Man and other Konami reps (Simon and Bomberman). I think he probably does better than most of them, but the competition is non-trivial.
Legal/marketing issues: As I said, MGS does not go on Nintendo consoles, not until it's years old. The newest installment is going to PS4 and Xbox One, PS3 and Xbox 360, and not Wii U. It's clearly not an issue of power - if they're making it for the PS3 and 360, the Wii U can definitely handle it. Watching the E3 presentations, the more I thought about it, the more it was like a slap in the face. Snake was put in one of Nintendo's premier games. What does Nintendo get? A years old remake on the 3DS, and left out of the next major installment, again. Putting Snake into Brawl was almost like marketing for Sony (and Microsoft to a lesser extent). I suspect that Konami/Sony got more marketing benefit from Snake being in Brawl than Nintendo did.
But I imagine that Konami would give the go ahead easily again. So I don't think it's a matter of Konami refusing.
Sakurai factor: Well, Sakurai and Kojima are friends. That's how Snake got in in the first place. With the factors I've discussed, it's quite clear that Snake never would've been considered otherwise, because the only time he could've plausibly been called a Nintendo All-Star was on the NES. The question is then how much Kojima's request will matter this time around. Presumably he'd like Snake to be in again. But Sakurai may feel that Snake doesn't deserve to be in twice on the basis of that alone. And I imagine Nintendo's marketing side would feel like there'd be better choices and that Kojima should make a commitment to actually support Nintendo with something useful (an original 3DS game, for example) if he wants to be in so bad.
Snake chances: 50%
I can see it going either way. There are three main factors here. The two factors pushing for his inclusion is the Sakurai-Kojima factor, which is obviously important. The other is Sakurai generally preferring not to cut characters, which makes most veterans more likely than most newcomers. But the other factor which pushes strongly against him is that he just doesn't belong in a roster of Nintendo All-Stars. If not for Kojima asking for him in Brawl, he'd be relegated to the levels I presume we'd see for someone like Cloud. Being part of the marketing push for competing consoles that are coming out while Nintendo's is still struggling is kinda a hard thing to overlook.
But the takeaway is that I don't know how much Sakurai cares about the fact that Snake was in Brawl, whether Kojima wants him in again, and whether Sakurai would acquiesce again.
Snake want: 1%
I don't think he deserves to be in the game. At all. He's not a Nintendo all-star. He's a Playstation All-Star. So put him there, where he belongs. I don't like playing as him as much as other characters. And I don't play the MGS games.
The 1% is for the small amount I would miss his move set, which while not my favorite, is interesting and still fun.
Mr. Game & Watch prediction: 99%
Do people think he's leaving?
Nominations:
Mike Jones x5
