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Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

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Gam3rALO

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Genesect
Chance: 5%
There are more relevant pokemon now. If the game was made a year ago then I could so Genesect maybe getting but now he is irrelevant.

Want: 1%
There are better pokemon to choose from.

Prediction for Chibi-Robo: 6.5%

Nominations
Sylveon x5
 

SpaceJell0

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2009 is just released? Or do you mean the gimmicky photography thing? 'Cos I'm not sure I'd count that as a proper new game.

He certainly has a place in Nintendo recent history, but I think the majority just see him as an assist trophy rather than are completely ignorant of him. You're just expecting way too much at 45%. You're on a mostly american board, so there'll be some ignorant people; that's how things work!

Also, while I'm not normally one to criticise grammar, in a post about ignorance I think it's worth pointing out: That is quite possibly the best/worst example of comma splicing I've ever seen.
I didn't really care for proper grammar and I am American. Ignorance shows through your first judgements. Improper grammar doesn't make someone ignorant.
 

moneyfrenzy

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Genesect chance 5%: I think the same thing that happened with 3rd gen will happen here
Want 30%: honestly i want the pokemon roster to be pikachu, lucario, jigglypuff, mewtwo, and either blaziken or zoroark.

Chibi robo: 15%

Nominations
Bomberman x5
 

Sabrewulf238

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Genesect chance - 5%

I feel that the 6th gen will steal the limelight from the 5th gen.....much like how the 4th gen stole the 3rd gens limelight in brawl. Lucario and Mewtwo have a far better chance.

Want - 5%

Not fussed about Genesect, would rather have Mewtwo or Lucario.

Chibi robo - 35%

I think he has a slightly better chance than he's given credit for, but that said he could easily be an assist trophy instead. I kinda imagine he might have to do time as an assist trophy before being promoted. He does have four games now and the latest was released only a few weeks ago, so he's not exactly inconsequential.

Nominations:

Shulk x2
Isaac x2
Fawful x1
 

Xenigma

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Gen II DID get a rep... in Melee. :pichumelee:
...well, shoot. I think the point still stands considering Gen III definitely didn't get a rep thanks to falling between Smash games, but yeah, I forgot about that annoying little Pikachu clone.

XD Says the Isaac supporter.
The tiny plug-carrying robot from one very niche game versus a guy from two very well-regarded RPGs (and one merely okay one) wielding swords, tons of magic, and ridiculous summons, not to mention a character with very notable fan support? I feel like I'm being trolled here.
 

ZecaOMestre

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Genesect

Likelihood: 20% - Honestly, people are underestimating his chances. Most Pokémon don't have a shot at all, however Genesect is one of the few who actaully have. He's legendary, has his own movie, is recent. He is pretty much the Mewtwo from Gen V, being created by mankind and all. His only real competition for the last Pokémon spot on the roster are Lucario, Mewtwo and Zoroark.

Want: 5% - Never really liked him, he just looks way too exaggerated

Chibi-Robo: 23%

Nominations:
Primid x3
Blaziken x2
 

moneyfrenzy

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...well, shoot. I think the point still stands considering Gen III definitely didn't get a rep thanks to falling between Smash games, but yeah, I forgot about that annoying little Pikachu clone.



The tiny plug-carrying robot from one very niche game versus a guy from two very well-regarded RPGs (and one merely okay one) wielding swords, tons of magic, and ridiculous summons, not to mention a character with very notable fan support? I feel like I'm being trolled here.
Pretty sure chibi Robo has been in like 4 games not just 1
 

Xenigma

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Pretty sure chibi Robo has been in like 4 games not just 1
Huh, seems there are in fact three other games that I missed when doing Google research, including one very recent 3DS game. That's a lot better credentials than I thought Chibi-Robo had. Still feels like a longshot for playability compared to many other potential newcomers we've rated, but I'll have to seriously reconsider my rating for next round.
 

Aqua Rock X

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Genesect

Chance: 20% - I suppose having a movie helps. Having strong competition from two veterans who also have movies doesn't.

Want: 10% - Not really interested. Just gimme back my 'cario along with Mewtwo for Smash 4.

Chibi-Robo Prediction: 10% - I don't really know the general consensus for this character, but I haven't seen much talk of him.

Nominations:
Daroach x5
 

SchAlternate

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Genesect

Chance :5%
It was in the movie and all but I don't see how it can become a fighter with THAT competition. There are more Pokemon, who could make it, especially since Gen6 will be released before this game.
Want :0%
All Pokemon I want in SSB4 are Pikachu, Jiggs, Lucario and Mewtwo. Lucario's and Mewtwo's mega forms would cover Gen6 with that as their new final smashes or down-b à la Zelda/Sheik.

Chibi-Robo

Chance :2%
I don't see this happening at all but with the debut of the Wii-Fit Trainer...
Want :0%
Just no. A tiny piece of scrap metal is really not what we need.



Nomination : 3x Mewtwo ; 2x Lucario
Hello! Welcome to the boards!

Just a heads up, we're actually not rating Chibi's chances today, we're predicting how well will he score in tomorrow's game.
 

AfricanSanta

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Genesect -
Chances- 10%- Mewtwo has better chances, and its doubtful we'll get 6 Pokemon reps. however, if we did I think it'll be Genesect.
Want- 100%- Not only does he have an awesome design and backstory, but having Genesect vs. Mewtwo would be awesome.

Chibi-Robo Prediction- idk 13%?

Nominations:

Dark Samus x3
Mallo x2
 

Groose

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That's what I mean, Charizard vs Blastoise. Otherwise, Venusaur vs Charizard or Blastoise vs Venusaur.

Think Charizard vs Blastoise is most iconic however. The character is named Red after all. And Pokémon Red was both released in Japan and US / EU, while Japan had Green and US / EU got Blue. Not counting FireRed and LeafGreen now.

**** it, am gonna nominate Blastoise from now on. I wanna see how many people agree that Charizard vs Blastoise needs to happen!

Speaking of, Groose, are we able to vote for different versions of characters? As in, Diddy and Dixie Kong tagteam, solo Zelda or solo Sheik, standalone Charizard, Ivysaur or Squirtle, Zelda teamed with Impa, standalone Samus / Zero Suit Samus and the like?
Yeah, sure. Feel free. The only one I might advise against of those you listed is "standalone Samus"--- just nominate Zero Suit Samus instead. The percentages will simply turn out to be inverses.

The sad thing is... I did do that...... I'm never going to live this down, am I? Argh, the more I think about it, the stupider I feel. :facepalm:
No matter how hard you try, you cannot become stupider than the Groosenator. It's a scientific impossibility.

wait, how did porky get so much nominations? He might even be up on tuesday! honestly was planning on nominating him next :/ oh well. I guess Kamek needs my nominations more then anything, now! :laugh:

I guess I'll vote for Daroch next, wanna see his want.
He gets like 20 a day. It's quite incredible.

The most nominations I've ever seen for a character in a single day were the 36 Lucina received. Granted, GameFAQs was still on board back then.

Would his move set consist of telling the other characters which moves they were allowed to use, and those other characters doing what he says for some stupid reason, even if it kills them? Or would that only work on Samus?
LOL. Day made.


After seeing all these ignorant posts about Chibi-Robo I think I'll leave this game for good now, it's just way too facepalm-worthy

The entire point of Rate their Chances is to see how stupid we all are come launch. So if Chibi-Robo does get in, you'll have the last laugh. Until then, we're all ignorant :p

Hello! Welcome to the boards!


Just a heads up, we're actually not rating Chibi's chances today, we're predicting how well will he score in tomorrow's game.
I can confirm everything you just said.

Genesect's Chances: 5% I don't think Zoroark makes the cut becuase of the nature of his character (see my comments on Zoroak's day for a lengthy explanation). Even so, I don't think Genesect makes the cut. Why? He just isn't a big enough Pokemon to pull on through. Additionally, his body type may be more difficult to program than most of his Pokemon competitiors.

Genesect Want: 10% I don't particularily like Genesect. He's OK, but there isn't much special about him. I use him occasionally when playing Pokemon competitively, but he's just not good enough for Smash.

Chibi Robo Prediction: 11.86% There will be a lot of people expecting him as an Assist Trophy. I am one of those people.

Professor Layton x5.
 

farvin111

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Genesect Chance: 22%
If Sakurai finalized the roster last year, he might have not yet known much about Mewtwo's mega form, so Genesect might be in despite not being too relevant today.

Want: 35%
He looks cool but I really like Mewtwo more.

Chibi-Robo: 19.36%
I wish I could predict higher, but a lot of people don't really know much about him, so I'll have to stay low.

x5 Chrom & Lucina
 

Groose

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Genesect (Pokemon)
8.56% chance
27.75% want
Genesect couldn't muster much support yesterday; the Pokemon was upstaged by Zoroark and a host of others. As many of you predicted, the bug got squashed. Ah well.
Today we're rating another new character. He is the Chibi Robo. A complete noob during the development of Brawl, the little robot is hoping to take the world by storm in this installment. Please leave your chance and want on Chibi Robo today.
Tomorrow we will be rating Porky. He really flew up the nominations list; now he's ready for his day. Please predict how people will rate Porky in tomorrow's game. Doing so can earn you extra nominations, like those won by Glaciacott. Enjoy the extra five.

Finally, I can announce that the Ice Climbers have been added to the nominations list once more.

Oh, and it's Day 50. I should have prepared some sort of surprise, but I didn't. Things caught me unawares. I'll try to think of something to do to celebrate Day 60 instead---after all, it is the two month mark.
 

Swamp Sensei

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Chibi Robo: 7%

He's a popular character and a new series to boot, but again competition is his downfall.

Want: 95%

I love Chibi Robo and I would love to play as him!

Porky Nomination: 15%

He's the most viable Mother rep. We just won't get a new Mother rep...

Nominations:
Snake x3
Falco
Mr. Game and Watch
 

Fastblade5035

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Chibi-Robo:

Chance: 39%
Its much better than you'd think.

Want: 50%
Indifferent.

Porky: 15%

Noms;
Ephraim x5
 

Glaciacott

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Sweet, I win nominations! ... the day before Porky is up for rating xD

Anyway ...

Chibi Robo
Chance 17%
I think he's actually rather likely. He feels like he's from one of those recent Nintendo series that everyone liked, and I'd be surprised if his series didn't return in some way. Pikmin 3 especially makes me think an HD chibi-robo game would be quite fantastic aesthetically, and in gameplay of course it'd be great as well. I guess we'll see.

Want 60%
I think he definitely has appeal, and would make for an interesting gameplay style carrying that plug around. That said, I haven't really played his games so I can't say I'd be overly excited to see him. I wouldn't mind though

Prediction
Porky (^o^!!) 9.4% ... I think most people will consider Mother unlikely to get more characters, while a few such as myself see him as the certain third Mother rep IF Mother gets a rep.

Oh, and music for him!
Porky's theme from Brawl
Master Porky's Theme
Isn't this such a Utopia?
Porky Means Business
Porky's Pokies

Nominations
x10 Ashley ... only one from my top ten that hasn't been rated, I believe.
 
D

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Chibi-Robo
Chances: 13%
Chibi-Robo is somewhat popular and has four games under his belt. However, I don't see much of a demand for him as I do with other characters. A spot on the roster is really unlikely to me as he does fit the bill of an Assist Trophy character to me more than a fighter on the roster. Who knows?
Want: 50%
I am purely indifferent on this. (though I like to see some new series get represented)
Porky/Pokey Prediction: 15.7%
He is competing for a non-existant third slot for a Mother rep. Though, I think he will get some good ratings.
Nominations: Bowser Jr. 5x
 

Gam3rALO

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Chibi-Robo
Chance: 5.5%
I can see it possible and sort of likely but I don't think he is important enough to Nintendo.

Want: 3%
R.O.B should be the only robot.

Prediction for Porky: 13.5%

Nominations
Sylveon x5
 

Smasher 101

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Chibi-Robo's chances: 15% - Is more likely to be an assist trophy.
Want: 60% - Not one of my top choices but I wouldn't mind him.

Porky prediction: 13%

Falco x5
 

Good Guy Giygas

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Chibi Robo
Likelihood: 15%? - I'm not too sure about this one, but I know he's kind of popular.
Want: 55% - Indifferent. I wouldn't have any objection if he made it in, but he's definitely not one of my most wanted characters. However, I've always been kinda intrigued by his games but I never got around to playing any of them..:ohwell:

Porky: 13% - If the Mother series gets a new rep (which it sadly won't), it'll almost undoubtedly be Porky.

Nominations:
Snake x5
 

colder_than_ice

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Chibi Robo
Chance: 16% - He has some fans. He's also one of the very few recurring main protagonists that haven't been playable in Smash yet.
Want: 84% - He's the perfect robot. Chibi Robo and Rob would make the most powerful duo the video game world has ever seen.

Porky Prediction: 3%

Nominations: Professor Layton x5
 

Xenigma

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Well, I've tried to do my homework on Chibi-Robo after exposing my horrible ignorance of it, and here's what I got:

Chibi-Robo - 15%
My first instinct is that he has no chance: he's a tiny robot from a fairly niche series that has since gone Japan-only. Doesn't seem like a resume that makes the cut for Smash. However, I have to give him credit, considering he got a new game just two months ago, one that got its own Nintendo Direct for its announcement/release, and the simple fact that his series has expanded to four games and a Wii rerelease since 2005. He's even got potential for a Villager-style moveset, using moves like sweeping with a broom, summoning equipment/utilibots, or maybe plugging in to power up attacks. They could even throw in a battery mechanic to make him even more unique. At the end of the day, though, there's already tons of competition from characters that are arguably more important/popular, and with Villager and WFT already in, it may be difficult to justify yet another unusual addition. It seems a lot easier to just shuffle him into the assist trophy line-up than make him playable. Still, I have to give him credit: he's a heck of a lot more plausible than I initially gave him credit for.
Want - 25% - No significant interest, but he could be really interesting if they put their minds to it.

Porky Prediction - 9.4%
I imagine he gets a similar amount of support as Masked Man, so I'm predicting he gets a similar rating too, though I'll lop off the .03% since Glaciacott's already gone for 9.4%.

Nominations
Black Shadow x5
 

GuyWithTheFace

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Chibi-Robo
Likelihood: 25% He could have a unique moveset, but his series lacks quite a bit in popularity. That said, he's not out by any means.
Want: 50% He looks fun to play as, but I won't be upset if he misses.

Porky prediction: 11.5% Most people will probably say Mother won't get three reps. And they're probably right. :/ Anyway, here's his main Earthbound/Mother 2 theme. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASvZJs8fens)

Nominate Mona x5

EDITED: Thought he was third party, was promptly corrected.
 

jaytalks

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Chibi-Robo -
I don't as much about this character as I do other series, so this post will be based upon what I know. It wasn't a successful series in Japan as far as I can tell and yet has made it stateside. There doesn't appear to be a lot of demand for the character or the series. But the series has had multiple releases. They just haven't sold particularly well. But the DS game did get a sequel in Japan, so maybe it sold to expectations roughly. But the lack of demand, sales, and popularity really hurts his chances.
His design would actually fit well. He seems to be a quirky character that Sakurai would give a chance to out of the blue. But I don't think I can factor that into my decision. His game has also been mainly developed by Skip Ltd, which is not a Nintendo owned studio. So that also probably hurts his chances. Keeping all that mind, and also because I don't really know too much:
Likelihood: 15%
Fire Emblem Hit Comparison: I would never attempt this attack and would not fear any enemies that approached me with this hit.

Want: 0%. I think this is my first zero so I just want to state that zero doesn't mean I'm opposed to him in the game. I don't really oppose any characters so long as they are Nintendo owned. This rating is reserved for want and I have zero want for the character. If I were opposed to a character (let's say Cloud due to being more of a Sony guy), I would probably give them a zero, but my opposition would not be a part of my ranking.

Porky Prediction: There appears to be a lot of Mother love in these parts so I'll go with a 17.55%

Nominations:
Lip x5
 

Toxicroaker

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Chibi Robo: 7%, I think he is unlikely but we will see
Want: 40% He almost made it into my top 10 but he was beat out by flipnote frog... (yea thats right I sayd flipnote frog)

Porky: 12%

x5 Cole (any supporters here?)
 

DukeofShorts

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Chibi Robo chance: 4%
Not well-known enough.

Chibi Robo want: 50%
Indifferent.

Porky prediction: 15.3%
Awesome game but I don't think Mother 3 needs more than Lucas.

Anthony Higgs x5
I leave for two days and Anthony drops four spots in the nominations count!
 

Smashoperatingbuddy123

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Likely hood 10%

You show me how chibi robo can get in besides every unique move and size is not an issue since about the same size as olimar i will change my vote

Want 5%
Never heard of him but love robots
 

Starcutter

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I'm certain he was called Pokey in EarthBound. He was called Porky in Mother 3.
they ARE indeed the same person. when he got translated over here his name got changed. so his more official name is Porky, even though he's called Pokey in EB. heck, he's even called porky in his debut in brawl, so whatever.
 

SpaceJell0

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Chibi-Robo Chance: 45% Unique, vast variety of moveset potential, unique IP, charming, many tools, great titles and decent sales. (HE IS FIRST PARTY PEOPLE!)
Chibi-Robo Want: 100% My childhood <3

Porky Prediction: 15%

Nomz: x5 Falco

Sorry for snapping back there, I wasn't in the best of moods at the time. Sorry everyone, no hard feelings :3
 
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