Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[D-idara]

Chances: 80% - He's still a third party but Sonic's one of the most iconic characters in the history of gaming...plus the amount of music, content and stage ideas he brings to the table is ridiculous...he's also as important to Nintendo's history as Megaman (Being Mario's rival both in their own worlds and in real life) and with SEGA becoming cuddly with Nintendo, we shouldn't expect Sonic to be cut, plus, he's fully recovered from the plunge that was 06' with 5+ amazing games under his belt.

Want: 100% SERIOUSLY, BLUE BLUR! Change almost all of his moveset, just keep the spindash and DON'T TOUCH his glorious Final Smash, it felt extremely powerful, like all Final Smashes should feel.

Prediction Genesect: 0%

Nominations: 5x Mr. G&W

 

[Salty the SLUG]

Look, it's Sanec da hedgehoog
Sonic
Chances: 80%
Want: 25%

Prediction: Genesect: 0%
By the time the next Smash comes out, Genesect will be old news. Gen 6 will most likely have something to replace him with. (Besides, he'd look silly jumping around).

Nomination:
Skull kid x5

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I. Going to do a pre genesect vote

45%
I would have made it 80% but he just got squished by lucario getting saved by the mega forms sinces he's one of them and not to mention there could be a 6th gen legend that could qualify for smash (mewtwos still just 1st gen legend he can present for gen 6 doesn't mean that another 6th gen pokemon can present besides mewtwo and lucario)

 

[Fastblade5035]

Sanic teh Hegog

Chances: 60%
I don't believe any third party warrants over a 50% for anything, but Sonic is definitely the exception.

Want: 99%
No cuts.

Genesect: 5%
What, you thought Zoroark was your competition? No, Mewtwo and Lucario are back, too.

Noms:
Ephraim x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Sonic - 94%

predict Genesect - 4.4%

Ryu x5

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Sonic the Hedgehog

Chance: 50% - I know many believe that his strong relations to Nintendo give him a strong chance and I think they help to. That along with his popularity make some believe that his return is a sure thing. However, I think it is unwise to not at least consider the possibility that he may not return. People say we don't know Sakurai's policy on third parties returning and that being a "guest" doesn't gaurantee a one-time only appearance. However, the reverse is true too. Sakurai may only consider having third party characters around as a one-time deal per character. It really is a 50/50 chance.

Want: 98% - That being said, however, I would love for Sonic to return. Having Mario, Sonic, and Megaman in the same game would be...well words could not describe it!

Genesect Prediction: 20% - Most feel he is under Mewtwo's Shadow.

Nominations:
Snake x5

 

[RoysOurBoy]

Sonic the Hedgehog
Chances: 80%
I see it unlikely for Sonic to be cut, as he was such a highly demanded character for Brawl and his games now primarily show up on the Wii U/3DS. There is a chance that Sakurai could cut him, only to make room for a different 3rd Party Representation.

Want: 50%
I never use Sonic but I think he should be in the game. I wouldn't care if they cut him, however.

Genesect
Chances: 10%
Genesect, Zoroark, and Mewtwo are fighting for the last Pokemon roster spot, as Pikachu, Pokemon Trainer, Jigglypuff, and even Lucario are all locks. I could be wrong about Lucario, because if Lucario is absent from the game, Genesect is more likely. This spot is more than likely Mewtwo's. If not, I think Zoroark has the edge over Genesect. But Sakurai has surpised us before so Genesect isn't impossible.

x5 Snake

 

[Diddy Kong]

Sonic

Chances: 50%
Could go either way honestly. If he's a guest for only Brawl, I'd be more than content with that though. Never really wanted him in, actually, I wanted him to stay out.

Want: 0%
I really am not too fond of any 3rd party characters, and I never really got into his games, or why he'd be such a 'great addition to Smash'. Just look as his Brawl moveset. Yeah, it might be uninspired cause of time contraints, but that's a bad excuse considering Wolf's moveset is as unique as a semi-clone can get. No, I don't want him, and never will. Still, am bracing myself to see him return...

Nominations: Impa x 5

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Likelihood: 95%
Want: 100%

Genesect: 8%

Falco x5

 

[Pikachu ftw]

Sonic
Chance: 50%
Want 98%

 

[Yoichi Hiruma]

Sonic: 98% want
75% return
Genesect:1%
Nomination: Little Mac x5

 

[SchAlternate]

They're not going to do that. If they're aware of Project M they'll be careful not to plagiarise it, if not they'll not be able to as they're unaware of it. That said I think all the characters are gonna be better balanced at a minimum, probably with more care put into how they play given Namco's involvement, so I imagine an improved moveset, just not a direct copy of a fan game.

I think the bigger need though is better palette swaps; it's almost impossible to tell them apart mid-game. Hopefully Sega will let Sakurai use Shadow/Silver/Amy/Metal Sonic/Ashura/Werehog colours, but remind everyone it's still sonic, just spray painted a bit.

To be quite frank, I never had a problem with distinguish 'em apart. The colors are bright enough to be differentiated from afar.

Also, regarding his moveset, it'd be cool if he had that aerial razor spin thing attack from Sonic 3, or some dashing combo like in Sonic Advance. As for his specials, I'd like to see the Homing Attack go straight forward when attacking (and do a small air dash if no enemies are nearby, like in most 3D games), the Spin Charge actually doing some damage while charging, and have his side B become the Sonic Boost power he had ever since Unleashed.

 

[Wonks]

Sonic:

Chance: 65%
A few months ago, it would have been higher, but there's been some cryptic/vague comments that have left me with doubts...

Want: 100%
Sonic cemented my love of gaming in the 90s; since Melee I had dreamed of Sonic being in the next game. Brawl was the culmination of my hopes, and Sonic did not disappoint.

 

[Groose]

Sonic's Chances: 80%
Sonic was brought in because of the sheer magnitude of his support. Those same supporters are still there, with one main difference; the supporters no longer HOPE to see Sonic; they EXPECT to see Sonic.

There will be hell to pay if Sonic isn't included in this game. The Sonic fanbase is among the most petulant, vocal, and immature of them all; they WILL have Sakurai's head on a platter if he has the nerve to cut Sonic from this game.

I sincerely hope and believe that Sakurai knows the backlash he will receive if he doesn't put Sonic in the game. Fortunately, it shouldn't be too hard for him to do; there is a precedent established and the two companies are on good terms.

Maybe Sakurai doesn't get the memo. Maybe he thinks third parties are guests for one game only; maybe there is some sort contract that will make this difficult. Maybe he feels that there just isn't enough space on the roster. Who can tell?

Sonic Want: 100%
Although I may not like the extremely vocal minority of my fellow fans, I am a Sonic fan through and through. I'm pretty sure this is obvious: just check the music section today. I supported Sonic from the moment Snake was revealed to the world; I'll support him from here on out (though I will understand if he doesn't make it).

My greatest Smash moment is a toss-up between three experiences: discovering the Master Hand glitch in Melee, unlocking Mewtwo, and seeing Sonic on the DOJO. I doubt his reveal this time will be as glorious... but I will still love it.

Genesect: 6.43%
He's second fiddle to Zoroark and Zoroark himself didn't do extremely well.

x5 Hershel Layton

Here, try this:
Groose/Godot Image

You are the greatest! You're going down on the "Special Thanks" list just for this.

Genesect Music
Tentacruel Angel's Thesis
A Step Forward Into Torterra
Flygon Me to the Moon Stone
Komm, Susser Todd Snap

Shiny Genesect Music
The Pokemon Trainer Red Ambassadress
Both of You, Teeter Dance Like You Want to Win This Double Battle
Here Comes Charmeleon
You're...a genius, Groose.

Where is this music from?

Nominations: Ashley x 5
Mona x 5
(Can I use the bonus that I got from winning the Lucas prediction today ?)

Yeah, no problemo.

They're not going to do that. If they're aware of Project M they'll be careful not to plagiarise it, if not they'll not be able to as they're unaware of it. That said I think all the characters are gonna be better balanced at a minimum, probably with more care put into how they play given Namco's involvement, so I imagine an improved moveset, just not a direct copy of a fan game.

I think the bigger need though is better palette swaps; it's almost impossible to tell them apart mid-game. Hopefully Sega will let Sakurai use Shadow/Silver/Amy/Metal Sonic/Ashura/Werehog colours, but remind everyone it's still sonic, just spray painted a bit.

Sonic's color swaps were pathetic. They could have had yellow, red, silver, black, green... and represented other characters very well.

 

[shinhed-echi]

Sonic

Chance: 85%
Super well received for Brawl. It's only natural that he'd be equally well received in SSB4
His series mixes pretty well with Nintendo universe.
Nintendo and SEGA haven't stopped collaborating since the Wii days or before, with the Mario & Sonic games.
Exclusive SEGA and Nintendo partnership bringing at least 3 Sonic titles to Nintedo systems.
One of gaming's biggest icon.
Will probably disappoint a LOT of fans if he doesn't return.
Iizuka has stated how he would LOVE for Sonic to re-appear in SSB.

Want: 100%
Sonic belongs in a game like Super Smash Bros. Most of his exlusives have been on Nintendo platforms.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Sonic: 100%

I can't fathom how removing him would be a good idea. Sonic leaving would be SUICIDE!!! And it's not like getting him back would be very hard. Sega and Nintendo are buddy buddy now.

I can't see him go...

Want: 100%

It's SONIC!!!! And not cuts....

Genesect Prediction: 6%
Not gonna happen. Most everyone thinks that.

Nominations:
Snake x3
Mr. Game & Watch x2

 

[Groose]

... You know, I think at this point I have forgotten everything possible about this thread short of not posting in it. I've forgotten score predictions, to nominate, use extra nominations... I don't know if I should laugh or facepalm. Maybe both?

Meh. Still makes sense, so I ain't changing it.

There's a pretty quick and easy way to review. Just go to the OP and click on "Veterans/Newcomers"

In FE terms, I would probably try the attack but I would have to make sure my HP is strong prior.

That seems very logical to me. I think I may start using those terms as a comparison.​

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DAY OVER​

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RETURN OF GROOSENATOR​

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[Starcutter]

Prediction: Genesect: 0%
By the time the next Smash comes out, Genesect will be old news. Gen 6 will most likely have something to replace him with. (Besides, he'd look silly jumping around).

you know that's your prediction on what other people are going to rate him, right?

 

[Morbi]

you know that's your prediction on what other people are going to rate him, right?

I would rate Genesect a 0%.

 

[Groose]

Sonic the Hedgehog (Sonic the Hedgehog)
84.56% chance
80.75% want

Sonic performed admirably in both chance and want. He defeated the likes of Ike, Pokemon Trainer, and Lucario in chance and better than any other Brawl introduced character we've rated in want. Not bad.

Today we're rating a character who isn't likely to do so well. Many of you are predicting that this bug will be squashed today. Why not find out? Please leave your chance and want on Genesect today.

Tomorrow we will be rating yet another robot. Yet this one is quite different from Genesect and R.O.B. He is Chibi Robo. Please predict how Chibi Robo will perform in tomorrow's game. Doing so can earn you extra nominations, like those won by Smash Shadow today.

Finally, I can announce that Lucario has been added to the nominations board. Take note that there has been a major development regarding Lucario in the month that's elapsed since we've rated him.

 

[Morbi]

Genesect Chance: 0%- I will not be a liar. I said I would do it! In all seriousness, his chances are a lot lower than some of the other Pokemon that are likely to return. He doesn't really have the support. Nintendo might be pushing him in the movie, but they are also pushing a fan favorite. I think it is highly unlikely that he would trump the popularity of more established Pokemon. Not to mention... he is purple. That is clearly bad luck. CLEARLY.

Genesect Want: 60%- He is a robot bug thing. Who doesn't want that?

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Likelihood: 1%
Want: 0%

Chibi Robo: 43%

Falco x5

 

[Opossum]

Genesect time!

Likelihood: 10%
Don't really see it happening.

Want: 5%
Meh.

Predicting a 9.7% for Chibi Robo

Nominating Falco x5

 

[Groose]

Not to mention... he is purple. That is clearly bad luck. CLEARLY.

I'm sorry, but it has to be done.

 

[Glaciacott]

Genesect
Chances - 1%. If I don't give a hundred to characters I'm certain should come back, I'll give Genesect the benefit of the doubt and give him a 1%.
I mean, here's the thing: Pokemon Trainer, Mewtwo, Lucario and Jigglypuff ALL have strong chances of coming back, not only because of being solid veterans, but also because of significant changes they've received recently (in the case of Pokemon Trainer, there's the fact Gamefreak is still loving to honor the classic Red and Blue as seen by their promotion of an Origins special on those games.) None of them have a reason to leave.
And then when we consider Gensect, just ... why? Because he has a movie? Almost all legendaries have a movie, and his has the distinction of not being important enough to focus on him, since the attention of his movie easily goes to Mewtwo and the reveal of his mega evolution. SO ... if Mewtwo is the star of Genesect's movie, what does that thing really have going for it?
But yea, my main argument is simply the fact that with Mewtwo very likely coming back, the Pokemon roster is complete with essentially 7 playable characters if we count each separate Pokemon Trainer moveset.

Want 0%
No thanks. Even if we did get another pokemon rep, I'd prefer N's Zoroark, Blaziken, Unova Trainer, Ampharos ... heck, even Eevee or Sylveon. But Genesect? No thanks. If it does happen I'll be tremendously disappointed and would use it as my sandbag for training purposes.

Chibi Robo
Prediction 13%
I'm having trouble predicting this one. I seriously don't know what to expect.

Nominations
x5 Porky Minch

 

[Fastblade5035]

Genesect

Chance: 5%
Zororark did better, and Zoroark still falls to Lucario, who is competing with Mewtwo. Yeah, sorry Genesect.

Want: 2%
Nah. First give me Lucario and Mewtwo again, then Blaziken and Grovyle, then maybe we can talk.

Chibi-Robo Prediction: 45%
An underrated potential newcomer. Id say he's little less than 50% percent.

Noms:
Ephraim x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Akari Hayami is from 1080° Snowboarding and Wave Race: Blue Storm, I believe.

Genesect's chances: 5% - Don't really see it happening.
Want: 0% - No thanks.

Chibi Robo prediction: 17%

Falco x5

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Genesect
Likelihood: 5% - He has quite a bit of competition, and he really has little chance of exceeding them. His chances aren't nonexistent, but very small.
Want: 20% - I don't know any of these new fan-dangled Pokemon since I've never really gotten into Pokemon, but Genesect looks pretty cool. He's a robotic bug thing, and to me, that's way cooler than a lot of other newer Pokemon I've seen. (The only generations I'm familiar with are Gen 1 and 2, as those are the ones I grew up with...) As cool as he is though, I still want Mewtwo more.

Chibi Robo: 9% - Not too sure about this one, but if I remember correctly, these games weren't extremely successful or popular.

Nominations:
Snake x5

[Also, it'd be great if this, Theme of Duster, could be added to Lucas' music section.]

 

[Starbound]

Genesect chances: 28%
Technically, he fits Sakurai's criteria for choosing Pokemon characters, so I wouldn't be surprised if he shows up in the roster.

Want: 50%
ROBOTIC BUG WHOO~

Nomz: Mach Rider x5

 

[DakotaBonez]

Genesect,

Likelihood: No chance in hell -324% (or 0%)

Genesect is yesterdays news. Haven't ya heard? Dem mayga pokemanz are all the rage now.

Want: 97%

Robot pokemon f$#@ yeah!

Nominationz

Chibi Robo x786!
I eagerly anticipate his debate on day 50.

 

[Starcutter]

Genesect chance: 7% dunno, don't really expect any new pokemon. like, at ALL. (mewtwo is a vet and doesn't count)
Want: 35% dunno. seems cool enough. also seems he's just a robotic kabotops, and he's cool, so that gives him an edge.

Chibi Robo: 17.6% he's probably likely by some, but unlikely by most people.

Noms:
Kamek x5 (almost there...)


also, can people nominate lucario now, he's had some big changes. I would really like that, but I'm nominating kamek right now...

 

[GuyWithTheFace]

Genesect
Chances: 5%. He's a generation too late. Any new Pokemon reps are way more likely to be 6th gen. Besides, he has Zoroark to compete with from his own Gen, and a ton of popular Pokemon vets. I don't see it happening.
Want: 25% Meh, doesn't matter to me. If we did get a 5th gen rep, I'd prefer Zoroark though.
Chibi-Robo Prediction: 9%. He's 3rd party, those are supposed to be special cases.

Nominate Porky x3, Mona x1, Tiki (Fire Emblem) x1 (If you consider Tiki a troll character Groose, just give that nomination to Mona. She's really unlikely, I'll admit, but most of the obvious choices have been rated. I'll leave it to your judgement.)

Oh, here's a track for Lucas, by the way. One of my favorite in the game. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ue7hfWqE9y8) It has lyrics too. And they're so deep. "Even if you forget, the small moles..."
And one for Waddle Dee, too! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXzg0D-cKds)

 

[Diddy Kong]

Genesect

Chance: 30%
It COULD happen, given Sakurai takes reference to the movies. However it's far more likely he'll just bring Mewtwo and Lucario back. They are far more popular, and featured a lot more in the games. Genesect has had it's minute of fame, but the other two will remain popular for quote some time to come.

Want: 10%
Give me Mewtwo vs Lucario. Second best thing Pokémon rivally related since Charizard vs Blastoise. I like those 2 loads better than Genesect as well.

Impa x 5

 

[Deleted member]

Genesect
Chances: 5%
This Pokemon is THE definition of the term "Flavor of the Month". While Pokemon like Mewtwo and Lucario were in their respective SSB games that were released some time after their respective movies, that doesn't give Genesect over the edge of certain other Pokemon. In fact, Mewtwo is in Genesect's movie which in turn could raise Mewtwo's already big chances. Genesect also faces some brutal competition from Mewtwo, Lucario, and Zoroark who all arguably have more popularity and demand than Genesect. So, Genesect is pretty much not going to make it in the roster in my opinion.
Want: 5%
I like Genesect, but it's not a Pokemon that I support being in SSB4. Give me Mewtwo first and then I will raise my want percentage.
Chibi-Robo Prediction: 6.7%
This character has potential, but I don't think that he will get high ratings.
Nominations: Bowser Jr. 5x

 

[Groose]

Give me Mewtwo vs Lucario. Second best thing Pokémon rivally related since Charizard vs Blastoise. I like those 2 loads better than Genesect as well.

The only rivalry there is the one Smash made. The best Pokemon rivalry is and will always be Red vs Blue/Green/Gary/What'sMyGrandson'sName.

 

[Diddy Kong]

That's what I mean, Charizard vs Blastoise. Otherwise, Venusaur vs Charizard or Blastoise vs Venusaur.

Think Charizard vs Blastoise is most iconic however. The character is named Red after all. And Pokémon Red was both released in Japan and US / EU, while Japan had Green and US / EU got Blue. Not counting FireRed and LeafGreen now.

**** it, am gonna nominate Blastoise from now on. I wanna see how many people agree that Charizard vs Blastoise needs to happen!

Speaking of, Groose, are we able to vote for different versions of characters? As in, Diddy and Dixie Kong tagteam, solo Zelda or solo Sheik, standalone Charizard, Ivysaur or Squirtle, Zelda teamed with Impa, standalone Samus / Zero Suit Samus and the like?

 

[Ephecus]

Genesect

Chance: 1 %
He just hasn't the starpower of the Pokémon reps that already have been in Smash.

Want: 25 %
I guess I wouldn't be too angry at him being in the game but I really don't care for him so I'd rather have someone else in.

Predicion Chibi-Robo: 19 %

Nominations:
5x Mr. Game and Watch

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Genesect: 10%
Want: 5%
Chibi-Robo: 19%
Nominate:
Roy x 3
Lucario x 2

 

[ToothiestAura]

Genesect:

Chances: 1-7%
I stopped following Pokemon after Diamond/Pearl. Yet, I've heard of this Gen 5 Pokemon. As an avid hater of newer Pokemon, I can say that his design is okay. Considering I didn't just immediately hate the thing - that means some people out there must actually really like it.
I feel that Gen 5 representation would have to Zoroark. Zoroark is the biggest name in Gen 5 (or at least seems to be). Word on the street is Zoroark has "illusion" powers. Could be interesting.

Want: 9%
I said it before, I don't like new Pokemon. Though, his design isn't the worst. And I heard something about a "drive" system that cold be interesting.

 

[SchAlternate]

Not to mention... he is purple. That is clearly bad luck. CLEARLY.

Hey, that was MY joke. (I would search for the original post, but it's currently burried below 200 pages or so of nothing but rage, nonsense, and pudding.)

EDIT: Found it.