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Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

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Keto

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Apr 29, 2007
Messages
270
so a little break from the vacation and ...
are you serious?

ok, screw roivas, don't care. Abstain.

but lord
Sandbag 0%
both chance and want

An let me say something here. I understand bidoof rates all absurd possibilities super high. I am ok with bluepikmin being the weird one here and pulling for a bunch of unlikelies because they are characters that even as retros and impossibilities, merit in some way some thought. Even if we don't all here understand that way.
But to come here and see that Sandbag has not only one but TWO ratings higher thatn 25%, then I'm sorry because we're talking of having such poor knowledge of statistics and humility that you're disrespecting this game and everyone here who participates in thisdday in and day out
In your rush to pull for the stupidest, most random garbage because "lol sakurai is random" you are making a mockery of the good honor Groose and other thread handlers place in you to NOT be biased in chance ratings and leave it in want ratings. In your rush to that one person who can call being right if the inevitable happens, you insult the people that actually spend time in their day to consider the most objective view possible to make sure we have proper data for posterity.

Seriously, I am not ok with this. As someone devoted to this thread and with huge respect for the people in it, I ask that anything as statistically stupidly high as 30 or 50 be ignored. It has no place outside of want especially when even if it made it in it'd be a WTF character. Those characters aren't as likely as getting one of two results on a coin toss.
And really, if this is allowed, I'll be seriously annoyed, because then i might as well just go to 0% or 100% because "you guys I'm so sure that ALL LOGIC" be damned.

Sorry for the rant. No predictions or nominations from me tonight.
There is no disrespect here. I rate characters almost every day so it's not like I came out of the shadows just to rate Sandbag. Some people get so butthurt.
 

andimidna

Smash Master
Joined
Dec 22, 2013
Messages
3,330
Location
Gusty garden galaxy
There is no disrespect here. I rate characters almost every day so it's not like I came out of the shadows just to rate Sandbag. Some people get so butthurt.
What I just don't understand is... why, no, HOW can you like Sandbag?

This is a bag.... of sand.
It's inanimate.
It has no character development.
It's never said anything to make you like it.
It's never done anything to deserve praise.
So I guess what I'm trying to say is... what's with the low standards for characters?
Why not include another awesome character with badass moves and great character development?
But... a bag... filled with sand. With two eyes drawn on it. And that's what you like.
...I just can't....
 

Keto

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Apr 29, 2007
Messages
270
What I just don't understand is... why, no, HOW can you like Sandbag?

This is a bag.... of sand.
It's inanimate.
It has no character development.
It's never said anything to make you like it.
It's never done anything to deserve praise.
So I guess what I'm trying to say is... what's with the low standards for characters?
Why not include another awesome character with badass moves and great character development?
But... a bag... filled with sand. With two eyes drawn on it. And that's what you like.
...I just can't....
Everybody here has that one character that they like over any other. I have no more characters that I want to be in the game because all my favorite characters are already confirmed and have been confirmed since 1999. Sandbag to me is the character that has been along for the ride in the smash bros. universe since 2001, even if he is just an item that doesn't move. If there is a smash exclusive character (which I think is 50% probable) then Sandbag is the one for the job. They can set a different type of Sandbag from the rest like R.O.B. was in Brawl and the Subspace Emissary.
 

Glaciacott

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 4, 2013
Messages
1,628
Location
Mintendo Noodle House
There is no disrespect here. I rate characters almost every day so it's not like I came out of the shadows just to rate Sandbag. Some people get so butthurt.
Listen kid, you may not realize it, but the butthurt is a direct result of the disrespect, so it is there. And calling it butthurt doesn't make it ok.
Idc how lost or unique you may be, rating Sandbag 50% for chance is just wrong. Even if the bag makes it, your rating is insultingly wrong. Too much time and sweat have been put in this thread to make it what it is for me to be ok with you taking a piss on it.

Even you admit there's bias! That stuff belongs in want dude.
 
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Pacack

Super Pac-Fan
Joined
Jun 7, 2013
Messages
8,066
Location
US (Mountain Time, -7 Hours)
NNID
Pacack
3DS FC
0688-5284-6845
I'm abstaining on Alexandra.

I am attempting to stay as unbiased as possible for this next rating:


(Original Art here. I edited it slightly. Artist goes by Quas-quas.)

Pros:
A: Smash-original character
B: Popular, although not as a character request
C: Could be fairly unique if done right.
D: Sakurai likes throwing curveballs.

Cons:
V: No limbs.
W: Largely seen as a joke request.
X: Has some competition in the form of Master Hand, Primid, Tabuu, and the like.
Y: Already had a couple curveballs, so there's competition from historical reps like Daitoryo and Diskun and from other darkhorse candidates like Chibi-Robo and Kamek.
Z: Previously an item.

Sandbag is a controversial character that has merit, but also some serious issues. In my opinion, the detractors rate him too low (Seriously? You're putting him among the ranks of Yarne + Owain and Athena Cykes? Really? I am ashamed with all of you people who consider yourselves serious raters.) and the supporters rate him too high (Really? 50% likelyhood? You do realize that that would put him up there with Shulk and Takamaru, right? I mean, I get it. You're trying to boost his score, but really?).

The way I see it, a lot of his cons are actually fairly easy to counter, but his pros don't help him enough.

A: Smash-original character? How do we know that that's even important to Sakurai?
B: Popular, but not as a character request? Doesn't really help him a lot, honestly. Only character requests seem to matter.
C: Could be unique? Well, sure, most anyone could, but is that enough? And he's not even obviously unique, either.
D: Sakurai likes throwing curveballs? Well, like I said, he's already done a couple of those, and he isn't the most obvious character for a curveball either.

V: No limbs? Artistic license is a thing. Look at that image above.
W: Largely seen as a joke request? When has that ever mattered to Sakurai?
X: Master Hand, Primid, and Tabuu are against him? Wow, such strong competition.
Y: Already seen a couple curveballs? Doesn't mean he's done with them. Zero Suit Samus was a curveball in Brawl times. Doesn't mean R.O.B. didn't make it.
Z: Previously an item? So was Charizard. Roles can change.

So let me try to do this mathematically. Yay random number values. Pros add percent and cons take away percent.

A=13% (Might be a point in his favor, but probably doesn't matter.)
B=7% (Doesn't help much, but still helps.)
C=6% (Sakurai may see potential in him, but there's no evidence to support that.)
D=9% (Kinda helps.)

V=1% (Largely null point.)
W=4% (Lack of serious character requests does hurt, but it's still requests.)
X=6% (Not strong competition at all.)
Y=14% (Does hurt a lot, but not even close to definitive.)
Z=2% (Starfy and Toad show that, sometimes, Sakurai wants characters in a specific position. However, Charizard and Little Mac show that he may change his mind.)

So let's see. (13+7+6+9)-(1+4+6+14+2)=8%

8% Chance. That sound fair? That's between 1/20 and 1/10 chance, which is unlikely, but definitely more than possible.

Want: 85%
I'd love it. Assuming a Smash-original character that uses Smash-original stuff to fight (primarily the wooden home-run bat) would be awesome. My personal vision of him has him with summonable projectiles that he (and he alone, probably) could hit with his bat, along with simple, but strong physical attacks with his bat. He would rely on hard hits and powerful projectiles that barrage the foe, but would be really easy to knock away (cause he's a literal punching bag) along with being kinda slow, since he's more used to being moved than moving himself. Oh, for the record, he wouldn't be a generic Sandbag either. He'd have distinct traits and whatnot. I mean, there are obviously multiple "Sandbag" characters, since you can have multiples of his item on the screen at once. Wouldn't have any problems.

Now that that's done, predictions:
Shantae: 1.2%
Throwing a number out there.

Unlockable characters: 85%
Isn't this confirmed with Mega Man's trailer? Seriously, why wouldn't it be showing up?

Nominations: Snake x5
 
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FalKoopa

Rainbow Waifu
BRoomer
Joined
Dec 16, 2012
Messages
32,231
Location
India/भारत
3DS FC
1650-3685-3998
Switch FC
SW-5545-7990-4793
Alexandra Roivas:
Likelihood: 1%
I can't say it's an impossiblity, but the character hails from a very niche series, and seems to be largely forgotten, so she's unlikely.

Want: 0%
Eh. I don't know much about her, so no.

Sandbag:
Likelihood: 0%
He appeared in Little Mac's trailer, and wasn't shown as a newcomer. He's effectively discomfirmed.

Want: 0%
Get the &@#% out of here.

Shantae prediction: 3%
Unlockable newcomers: 87%

Wild Gunman x 5
 

andimidna

Smash Master
Joined
Dec 22, 2013
Messages
3,330
Location
Gusty garden galaxy
Alexandra Roivas:
Likelihood: 1%
I can't say it's an impossiblity, but the character hails from a very niche series, and seems to be largely forgotten, so she's unlikely.

Want: 0%
Eh. I don't know much about her, so no.

Sandbag:
Likelihood: 0%
He appeared in Little Mac's trailer, and wasn't shown as a newcomer. He's effectively discomfirmed.

Want: 0%
Get the &@#% out of here.

Shantae prediction: 3%
Unlockable newcomers: 87%

Wild Gunman x 5
THANK YOU, I WAS GETTING WORRIED...
 

colder_than_ice

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 7, 2013
Messages
1,331
Here are all the characters, stages, and concepts listed by their "want" rating.



Possible newcomers

1. King K. Rool - 85.46%
2. Ridley - 81.21%
3. Little Mac (confirmed) - 77.00%
4. Palutena - 75.07%
5. Banjo Kazooie - 72.57%
6. Isaac - 68.46%
7. Dixie Kong - 68.25%
8. Shulk - 66.79%
9. Waddle Dee - 64.26%
10. Bomberman - 59.83%
11. Takamaru - 57.51%
12. Lip - 56.45%
13. Robin/Avatar - 56.00%
14. Hades - 54.34%
15. Solo Tetra - 51.03%
16. Dillon - 50.37%
17. Toad - 50.29%
18. Pac-Man - 50.21%
19. Porky - 48.66%
20. Captain Rainbow - 48.65%
21. Rhythm Wrestler - 48.50%
22. Lucina - 47.73%
23. Mona - 46.86%
24. Amaterasu - 46.53%
25. Toon Zelda and Tetra - 45.28%
26. Ray - 45.05%
27. Professor Layton - 44.89%
28. Anna - 44.77%
29. Mach Rider - 44.75%
30. Bowser Jr. - 44.55%
31. Chibi Robo - 44.47%
32. Simon Belmont - 44.43%
33. Waluigi (deconfirmed) - 44.13%
34. Meowth - 43.81%
35. Groose - 43.58%
36. Tiki - 43.33%
37. Black Shadow - 43.00%
38. Blaziken - 42.93%
39. Rosalina (confirmed) - 42-90%
40. Muddy Mole - 42.54%
41. Saki - 42.46%
42. Rayman - 42.32%
43. Masked Man - 42.00%
44. Phoenix Wright - 41.98%
45. Midna - 41.95%
46. Skull Kid (deconfirmed) - 41.47%
47. Starfy (deconfirmed) - 40.03%
48. Paper Mario - 39.02%
49. Zoroark 38.72%
50. Tom Nook - 38.46%
51. Samurai Goroh - 38.44%
52. Jimmy T. - 38.31%
53. Ganon - 38.29%
54. New Pokemon Trainer - 37.95%
55. (tie) Lynn - 37.86%
55. (tie) Sukapon - 37.86%
57. Black Mage - 37.78%
58. Andy - 37.38%
59. Cranky Kong - 37.20%
60. Wonder Red - 37.10%
61. Daitoryo - 36.80%
62. Donbe and Hikari - 36.79%
63. Kamek - 36.06%
64. Duck Hunt Dog - 35.43%
65. Fawful - 34.52%
66. Vaati - 34.30%
67. Excitebiker - 33.96%
68. Shantae - 33.92%
69. Grovyle - 33.91%
70. Ghirahim - 33.76%
71. Matthew - 33.36%
72. Slime - 32.65%
73. Yuyuki Goku - 31.82%
74. Tails - 31.67%
75. Geno - 31.65%
76. Professor E. Gadd - 31.63%
77. Chrom and Lucina - 31.56%
78. Chrom - 31.46%
79. Magolor - 31.16%
80. Prince of Sable - 30.57%
81. Klonoa - 29.66%
82. Impa - 28.61%
83. Master Hand - 28.59%
84. Lloyd Irving - 28.34%
85. (tie) Mii - 28.26%
85. (tie) Medusa - 28.26%
87. Balloon fighter - 27.88%
88. Genesect - 27.75%
89. Ashley (deconfirmed) - 27.43%
90. Knuckles - 27.34%
91. Captain Syrup - 27.26%
92. Krystal - 27.05%
93. King Boo - 26.42%
94. Zero - 26.33%
95. Dark Samus - 26.32%
96. Alexandra Roivas - 26.29%
97. Jack Frost - 25.91%
98. Omastar - 25.85%
99. Slippy Toad - 25.35%
100. Masked Link - 24.91%
101. Travis Touchdown - 24.72%
102. Karate Joe - 24.71%
103. Happy Mask Salesman - 24.63%
104. Dark Pit - 24.55%
105. Yarne - 24.52%
106. Victini - 24.39%
107. Arino - 24.14%
108. Ephraim - 24.05%
109. Aeron - 23.90%
110. Louie - 23.55%
111. Tingle - 23.31%
112. Harry - 22.52%
113. Quote 22.17%
114. Dr. Kawashima - 22.12%
115. Niku and Shiki - 21.84%
116. Leon - 21.79%
117. Sora - 21.49%
118. Alph - 21.36%
119. Zael - 21.18%
120. Bayonetta - 20.70%
121. Diskun - 20.12%
122. Isa - 19.79%
123. Micaiah - 18.98%
124. Sandbag - 18.72%
125. Eevee - 18.25%
126. Dark Matter - 17.67%
127. Rhythm Monkey - 17.65%
128. Reggie - 17.44%
129. Sheriff - 16.82%
130. Yarne and Owain - 16.38%
131. Sylveon - 16.20%
132. Tharja - 16.17%
133. Magnus - 15.79%
134. Alph, Brittany, and Charlie - 15.64%
135. Owain - 14.51%
136. Tiny Kong - 14.39%
137. Mike Jones - 14.18%
138. Anthony - 13.64%
139. Plasm Wraith - 13.43%
140. Wild Gunman - 13.40%
141. Isabelle - 13.32%
142. Daisy - 13.14%
143. Scrooge Mcduck - 12.96%
144. Son Goku - 12.51%
145. Count Bleck - 11.90%
146. Goemon - 11.80%
147. Pauline - 11.43%
148. Nintendog - 11.13%
149. Kunio-Kun - 10.53%
150. Ryu 10.00%
151. Stork - 9.75%
152. Primid - 9.05%
153. Chef Kawasaki - 9.03%
154. Nightmare - 8.58%
155. Reyn - 8.00%
156. Bulborb - 7.94%
157. Cloud - 7.75%
158. Ninten - 7.61%
159. Chancellor Cole - 7.59%
160. Hero of Light - 6.82%
161. Lupus - 6.20%
162. Athena Cykes 6.08%
163. Shadow 5.48%
164. Panther 2.52%

Huge gap

165. Adam Malkovich - 0.43%

Veterans

1. Gannondorf - 90.62%
2. Mr. Game & Watch - 90.51%
3. Ice Climbers - 88.28%
4. Wolf - 84.17%
5. Mewtwo - 82.57%
6. Sonic (confirmed) - 80.75%
7. ROB - 80.06%
8. Lucas - 80.04%
9. Jigglypuff - 79.06%
10. Sheik - 79.02%
11. Ike - 77.59%
12. Pokemon Trainer - 77.00%
13. Falco - 74.74%
14. Lucario (confirmed) - 72.36%
15. Toon Link (confirmed) - 64.54%
16. Snake - 63.92%
17. Roy - 42.82%
18. Pichu - 25.90%
19. Dr. Mario - 18.01%
20. Young Link 6.52%

Stages

1. Bowser's Castle - 83.33%
2. Paper Mario - 68.77%
3. Kirby's Epic Yarn - 68.48%
4. Rhythm Heaven - 68.31%
5. Gangplank Galleon - 65.30%
6. Super Mario 3D world - 64.77%
7. Tetris - 62.89%
8. Dr. Mario - 57. 13%
9. Cookie Country - 48.96%
10. Nutty Noon - 48.59%
11. Gyromite - 46.48%

Concepts

1. Promoted AT (confirmed) - 90.47%
2. Improved Stage Builder - 85.15%
3. <10% chance character becomes playable - 82.58%
4. Decloned Gannondorf - 82.24%
5. Unlockable Newcomers - 80.77%
6. 4 Donkey Kong reps - 75.60%
7. Brawl Pokemon + Mewtwo - 74.11%
8. Extensive Alternate Costumes - 73.51%
9. DLC - 71.84%
10. Spear User - 66.36%
11. Zelda Newcomer - 64.67%
12. Unplayable Hanafuda rep - 62.17%
13. No Cuts - 57.91%
14. No Namco rep - 53.92%
15. Yoshi Overhaul - 50.87%
16. Other M Ridley - 46.37%
17. Playable Boss Mode - 43.04%
18. RTC top 10 becomes - 41.62%
19. 6 Mario characters - 40. 78%
20. Rhythm Heaven rep - 37.98%
21. Fatal Frame rep - 35. 77%
22. Pokemon AT - 34.48%
23. Split up Pokemon Trainer - 26.48%
24. Bowser Jr. + Shadow Mario - 17.89%



If anyone sees any mistakes on here please let me know. I'll try to edit this at the end of each day, but please don't hold me to it.
 
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Zhadgon

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 19, 2013
Messages
1,849
Location
Chilangolandia
NNID
Zhadgon
The sad thing is if by any possibility Sandbag gets a higher score in want and chance than Alexandra, I will be done with the game and Facepalm to all of you, seriously guys you let a character like Sandbag get a higher score in Want than Alexandra before even try to research the game, see some videos or even know what is behind it? I will laugh to all of you and be so disappointed.

Sorry Groose not to respect you or the game but sometimes I wonder what is wrong with people, if you don´t know the f...ing game at least abstain of rating it because if you did make a research about it you could be really surprised of what could bring to the table with a unique moveset, levels, items and even music.
.n_n.
 
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KingofPhantoms

The Spook Factor
Joined
Feb 12, 2013
Messages
33,369
Location
Southern California
3DS FC
1006-1145-8453
Alexandra Roivas - 1%

Eligible, but would be shocked to see her as the series she is from seems to be forgotten.

Want - 50%

Indifferent.

Sandbag - 0.1%

Eligible, but I fully doubt it will make in at this point given it's appearance in the Little Mac trailer. You always gotta note that this thing lacks limbs as well. Roles can indeed change, such as with Charizard and Little Mac, but at this point, I don't think it will make it at this point. If it were playable, I fully doubt it would've appeared in Mac's trailer.



Want - 50%


I suppose it could be interesting depending on what it does, in which case I might like it.. If it's moveset was just it throwing and swinging itself or anything generic like that, I would be quite upset and would detest having to face them online. This being said, I'd take such a Sandbag over the Mii any day.

Overall I'm indifferent to it.

Shantae Prediction - 2.06%

Unlockable Newcomers Prediction - 90.63%

Happy Mask Salesman x5
 

andimidna

Smash Master
Joined
Dec 22, 2013
Messages
3,330
Location
Gusty garden galaxy
Here are the characters listed by popularity.



Possible newcomers

1. King K. Rool - 85.46%
2. Ridley - 81.21%
3. Little Mac (confirmed) - 77.00%
4. Palutena - 75.07%
5. Banjo Kazooie - 72.57%
6. Isaac - 68.46%
7. Dixie Kong - 68.25%
8. Shulk - 66.79%
9. Waddle Dee - 64.26%
10. Bomberman - 59.83%
11. Takamaru - 57.51%
12. Robin/Avatar - 56.00%
13. Dillon - 54.23%
14. Hades - 52.19%
15. Solo Tetra - 51.03%
16. Paper Mario - 50.97%
17. Toad - 50.29%
18. Pac-Man - 50.21%
19. Porky - 48.66%
20. Rhythm Wrestler - 48.50%
21. Lucina - 47.73%
22. Mona - 46.86%
23. Amaterasu - 46.53%
24. Toon Zelda and Tetra - 45.28%
25. Ray - 45.05%
26. Professor Layton - 44.89%
27. Anna - 44.77%
28. Mach Rider - 44.75%
29. Bowser Jr. - 44.55%
30. Chibi Robo - 44.47%
31. Simon Belmont - 44.43%
32. Waluigi (deconfirmed) - 44.13%
33. Meowth - 43.81%
34. Groose - 43.58%
35. Black Shadow - 43.00%
36. Blaziken - 42.93%
37. Rosalina (confirmed) - 42-90%
38. Muddy Mole - 42.54%
39. Saki - 42.46%
40. Rayman - 42.32%
41. Masked Man - 42.00%
42. Phoenix Wright - 41.98%
43. Midna - 41.95%
44. Skull Kid (deconfirmed) - 41.47%
45. Captain Rainbow - 40.74%
46. Starfy (deconfirmed) - 40.03%
47. Zoroark - 39.42%
48. Tom Nook - 38.46%
49. Samurai Goroh - 38.44%
50. Jimmy T. - 38.31%
51. Ganon - 38.29%
52. New Pokemon Trainer - 37.95%
53. (tie) Lynn - 37.86%
53. (tie) Sukapon - 37.86%
55. Black Mage - 37.78%
56. Andy - 37.38%
57. Cranky Kong - 37.20%
58. Wonder Red - 37.10%
59. Daitoryo - 36.80%
60. Donbe and Hikari - 36.79%
61. Kamek - 36.06%
62. Duck Hunt Dog - 35.43%
63. Fawful - 34.52%
64. Vaati - 34.30%
65. Excitebiker - 33.96%
66. Grovyle - 33.91%
67. Ghirahim - 33.76%
68. Matthew - 33.36%
69. Slime - 32.65%
70. Goku - 31.82%
71. Lip - 31.81%
72. Tails - 31.67%
73. Geno - 31.65%
74. Professor E. Gadd - 31.63%
75. Chrom and Lucina - 31.56%
76. Chrom - 31.46%
77. Magolor - 31.16%
78. Prince of Sable - 30.57%
79. Klonoa - 29.66%
80. Impa - 28.61%
81. Master Hand - 28.59%
82. Lloyd Irving - 28.34%
83. (tie) Mii - 28.26%
83. (tie) Medusa - 28.26%
85. Balloon fighter - 27.88%
86. Genesect - 27.75%
87. Ashley (deconfirmed) - 27.43%
88. Knuckles - 27.34%
89. Captain Syrup - 27.26%
90. Krystal - 27.05%
91. King Boo - 26.42%
92. Zero - 26.33%
93. Dark Samus - 26.32%
94. Slippy Toad - 25.35%
95. Masked Link - 24.91%
96. Travis Touchdown - 24.72%
97. Karate Joe - 24.71%
98. Dark Pit - 24.55%
99. Yarne - 24.52%
100. Victini - 24.39%
101. Ephraim - 24.05%
102. Aeron - 23.90%
103. Louie - 23.55%
104. Tingle - 23.31%
105. Harry - 22.52%
106. Quote 22.17%
107. Dr. Kawashima - 22.12%
108. Niku and Shiki - 21.84%
109. Leon - 21.79%
110. Sora - 21.49%
111. Alph - 21.36%
112. Zael - 21.18%
113. Bayonetta - 20.70%
114. Sandbag - 20.41%
115. Diskun - 20.12%
116. Isa - 19.79%
117. Micaiah - 18.98%
118. Eevee - 18.25%
119. Dark Matter - 17.67%
120. Rhythm Monkey - 17.65%
121. Reggie - 17.44%
122. Sheriff - 16.82%
123. Yarne and Owain - 16.38%
124. Sylveon - 16.20%
125. Tharja - 16.17%
126. Magnus - 15.79%
127. Alph, Brittany, and Charlie - 15.64%
128. Owain - 14.51%
129. Tiny Kong - 14.39%
130. Mike Jones - 14.18%
131. Anthony - 13.64%
132. Plasm Wraith - 13.43%
133. Daisy - 13.14%
134. Scrooge Mcduck - 12.96%
135. Count Bleck - 11.90%
136. Goemon - 11.80%
137. Omastar - 11.63%
138. Pauline - 11.43%
139. Nintendog - 11.13%
140. Ryu 10.00%
141. Stork - 9.75%
142. Primid - 9.05%
143. Chef Kawasaki - 9.03%
144. Nightmare - 8.58%
145. Reyn - 8.00%
146. Bulborb - 7.94%
147. Cloud - 7.75%
148. Ninten - 7.61%
149. Chancellor Cole - 7.59%
150. Athena Cykes 6.08%

Huge gap

151. Adam Malkovich - 0.43%



I will later edit this to include Veterans concepts and stages. If anyone sees any mistakes on here please let me know. I'll try to edit this at the end of each day, but please don't hold me to it.
Midna at #43?
I ain't even mad... that's decent.
Great job on the list.
Uhh.... Why?
I missed you :o

:laugh: Just kidding, it was because the Sandbag supporters kept on coming in, and you finally came in with the common sense that Sandbag is deconfirmed.

I honestly thought the idea was done when the homerun bat was confirmed, but sure enough, the next day he appeared in a newcomer trailer, as he is, a punching bag, and NOT a playable character!
 

FalKoopa

Rainbow Waifu
BRoomer
Joined
Dec 16, 2012
Messages
32,231
Location
India/भारत
3DS FC
1650-3685-3998
Switch FC
SW-5545-7990-4793
Here are the characters listed by popularity.



Possible newcomers

1. King K. Rool - 85.46%
2. Ridley - 81.21%
3. Little Mac (confirmed) - 77.00%
4. Palutena - 75.07%
5. Banjo Kazooie - 72.57%
6. Isaac - 68.46%
7. Dixie Kong - 68.25%
8. Shulk - 66.79%
9. Waddle Dee - 64.26%
10. Bomberman - 59.83%
11. Takamaru - 57.51%
12. Robin/Avatar - 56.00%
13. Dillon - 54.23%
14. Hades - 52.19%
15. Solo Tetra - 51.03%
16. Paper Mario - 50.97%
17. Toad - 50.29%
18. Pac-Man - 50.21%
19. Porky - 48.66%
20. Rhythm Wrestler - 48.50%
21. Lucina - 47.73%
22. Mona - 46.86%
23. Amaterasu - 46.53%
24. Toon Zelda and Tetra - 45.28%
25. Ray - 45.05%
26. Professor Layton - 44.89%
27. Anna - 44.77%
28. Mach Rider - 44.75%
29. Bowser Jr. - 44.55%
30. Chibi Robo - 44.47%
31. Simon Belmont - 44.43%
32. Waluigi (deconfirmed) - 44.13%
33. Meowth - 43.81%
34. Groose - 43.58%
35. Black Shadow - 43.00%
36. Blaziken - 42.93%
37. Rosalina (confirmed) - 42-90%
38. Muddy Mole - 42.54%
39. Saki - 42.46%
40. Rayman - 42.32%
41. Masked Man - 42.00%
42. Phoenix Wright - 41.98%
43. Midna - 41.95%
44. Skull Kid (deconfirmed) - 41.47%
45. Captain Rainbow - 40.74%
46. Starfy (deconfirmed) - 40.03%
47. Zoroark - 39.42%
48. Tom Nook - 38.46%
49. Samurai Goroh - 38.44%
50. Jimmy T. - 38.31%
51. Ganon - 38.29%
52. New Pokemon Trainer - 37.95%
53. (tie) Lynn - 37.86%
53. (tie) Sukapon - 37.86%
55. Black Mage - 37.78%
56. Andy - 37.38%
57. Cranky Kong - 37.20%
58. Wonder Red - 37.10%
59. Daitoryo - 36.80%
60. Donbe and Hikari - 36.79%
61. Kamek - 36.06%
62. Duck Hunt Dog - 35.43%
63. Fawful - 34.52%
64. Vaati - 34.30%
65. Excitebiker - 33.96%
66. Grovyle - 33.91%
67. Ghirahim - 33.76%
68. Matthew - 33.36%
69. Slime - 32.65%
70. Goku - 31.82%
71. Lip - 31.81%
72. Tails - 31.67%
73. Geno - 31.65%
74. Professor E. Gadd - 31.63%
75. Chrom and Lucina - 31.56%
76. Chrom - 31.46%
77. Magolor - 31.16%
78. Prince of Sable - 30.57%
79. Klonoa - 29.66%
80. Impa - 28.61%
81. Master Hand - 28.59%
82. Lloyd Irving - 28.34%
83. (tie) Mii - 28.26%
83. (tie) Medusa - 28.26%
85. Balloon fighter - 27.88%
86. Genesect - 27.75%
87. Ashley (deconfirmed) - 27.43%
88. Knuckles - 27.34%
89. Captain Syrup - 27.26%
90. Krystal - 27.05%
91. King Boo - 26.42%
92. Zero - 26.33%
93. Dark Samus - 26.32%
94. Slippy Toad - 25.35%
95. Masked Link - 24.91%
96. Travis Touchdown - 24.72%
97. Karate Joe - 24.71%
98. Dark Pit - 24.55%
99. Yarne - 24.52%
100. Victini - 24.39%
101. Ephraim - 24.05%
102. Aeron - 23.90%
103. Louie - 23.55%
104. Tingle - 23.31%
105. Harry - 22.52%
106. Quote 22.17%
107. Dr. Kawashima - 22.12%
108. Niku and Shiki - 21.84%
109. Leon - 21.79%
110. Sora - 21.49%
111. Alph - 21.36%
112. Zael - 21.18%
113. Bayonetta - 20.70%
114. Sandbag - 20.41%
115. Diskun - 20.12%
116. Isa - 19.79%
117. Micaiah - 18.98%
118. Eevee - 18.25%
119. Dark Matter - 17.67%
120. Rhythm Monkey - 17.65%
121. Reggie - 17.44%
122. Sheriff - 16.82%
123. Yarne and Owain - 16.38%
124. Sylveon - 16.20%
125. Tharja - 16.17%
126. Magnus - 15.79%
127. Alph, Brittany, and Charlie - 15.64%
128. Owain - 14.51%
129. Tiny Kong - 14.39%
130. Mike Jones - 14.18%
131. Anthony - 13.64%
132. Plasm Wraith - 13.43%
133. Daisy - 13.14%
134. Scrooge Mcduck - 12.96%
135. Count Bleck - 11.90%
136. Goemon - 11.80%
137. Omastar - 11.63%
138. Pauline - 11.43%
139. Nintendog - 11.13%
140. Ryu 10.00%
141. Stork - 9.75%
142. Primid - 9.05%
143. Chef Kawasaki - 9.03%
144. Nightmare - 8.58%
145. Reyn - 8.00%
146. Bulborb - 7.94%
147. Cloud - 7.75%
148. Ninten - 7.61%
149. Chancellor Cole - 7.59%
150. Athena Cykes 6.08%

Huge gap

151. Adam Malkovich - 0.43%



I will later edit this to include Veterans concepts and stages. If anyone sees any mistakes on here please let me know. I'll try to edit this at the end of each day, but please don't hold me to it.
Please, continue to update it. It'll make it a lot easier for me to make sure that my Want charts are correct. :)
 

Kenith

Overkill Sarcasm
Joined
Dec 24, 2013
Messages
24,014
Location
The Fabulous Friendly Super Sparkle Train
NNID
RipoffmanXKTG
3DS FC
4210-4224-9442
Hope I'm not late as usual.

Alexandra Roivas:

Chance: 1%. Eternal Darkness is a very old and forgotten game and I don't think it will get any recognition. Especially as a playable character, who really would not fit in here.

Want: 1%. I don't really care, sort of against it.

Sandbag:

Chance: 15%. He is a Smash original character, and it pretty well-liked. However, he has no limbs! You can't punch without arms. If they did include him, it would have to be improvised, like maybe a bat attached to his body. I would assume that there are a lot of characters with priority over him, though. After all, he was created to be kicked around.

Want: 60%. This would kind of awesome, but only if they did it right.

Shantae Prediction:
2%.
Unlockable Newcomers Prediction: 65%.
 

loganhogan

Smash Ace
Joined
Dec 22, 2011
Messages
816
Alexandra
chance 6.66%
I like the game but it hasn't evolved into a series yet, it would be more likely that she appeared as an assist or had trophies or themes from her game. She represents a more "mature" themed series that belongs to the horror genre but it hurts that she's from one game that came out a long time ago.

want 55%
Neutral if only I'd want her in smash bros so she can get a damn sequel! I'd be happy with WW treatment with a HD Port/remake to the wii u. Her game deserves the representation it can get, it isn't considered one of the best games for nothing.

Sandbag
chance 0.5%
If there was a smash bros rep wouldn't it be Master Hand? :troll:

want 0.5%
Please understand.

x5 Dr. Lobe

predict 1.6% and 88%
 
Last edited:

Cheezey Bites

Slime Knight
Joined
Jul 7, 2013
Messages
1,649
Location
Astoltia
NNID
koske1
3DS FC
4356-0097-9129
All 0%s today, I can't even be bothered to write out reasons. Sorry Groose.


Shantae: 2.1%
Pity votes.

Unlockable Newcomers: 82%
Does anyone really think Megaman's going to be a starter?


Slime*5
 

Erimir

Smash Lord
Joined
Nov 24, 2001
Messages
1,732
Location
DC
3DS FC
3823-8583-9137
@ Groose Groose can we get some clarification about what is meant by "unlockable newcomers." Is it as simple as I think it is? Does it just mean, "Do you think some newcomers will be locked on new game files?"

Am I the only one here who's played Eternal Darkness? It really seems that way. I mean, I know I'm old compared to most of youse guys (hell, I registered on SmashBoards before Eternal Darkness was even released), but...

Anyway, my copy is sitting downstairs right now, even. I was considering playing it again soon (summer?). I guess I'll post a piece of music then, and I'll give her a more detailed analysis instead of just giving her a low rating and moving on...


Anyway, to clarify one issue first: @ colder_than_ice colder_than_ice Nintendo retains the rights to Eternal Darkness, and they even have the patent on the "Sanity Meter" used in the game. Kind of a silly patent, but yeah, they definitely can use her if they want.

Alexandra Roivas

Eternal Darkness was a critically acclaimed game, getting an average score over 90%. It sold respectably but not blockbuster, with less than 0.5 million copies sold, pretty much just in the West.

It is unashamedly copying Lovecraft with its Ancients, Ulyaoth (blue), Chattur'gha (red) and Xel'lotath (green), and the Corpse God, Mantorok (purple). Over the course of the game, Roivas learns to use magick aligned with all four Ancients. They don't really correspond with elements. Mantorok's magick can have poisoning effects, while the others are related to magick, health and sanity, respectively. You also can summon zombies and horrors aligned with the ancients.

During the course of the game, you also use a number of different weapons, including swords, rifles, a mace and a blowgun. However, the guns are a little too realistic for Smash Bros. The ultimate weapon is an enchanted gladius, which can be thrown and will return to you. Combined with the magick and summoning, Roivas has plenty of moveset potential. Sanity effects being used for an AT or Final Smash would be pretty great too.

But the long and short of it is that it's a 12 year old game that didn't spawn a series and didn't sell millions. A game that even though Brawl had a panoply of trophies and stickers didn't get a single inclusion. While I think it's possible for a character to make the jump from trophy to playable, I don't think a game that's been around so long and didn't even get a trophy has any chance.

Alexandra Roivas chances: 0.01%

Alexandra Roivas want: 70%
I accept where she is, I don't expect her at all and it won't bother me at all if she's not in. But I can't deny that if by some miracle she got in, I'd be excited. If only for the reason that I'd assume a Wii U sequel for Eternal Darkness may happen. I was sad to see that the Kickstarter for the spiritual successor failed.

Sandbag

Is a bag of sand.

Sandbag chances: 0.1%

Sandbag want: 5%

Predictions:
Shantae - 4%
Unlockable newcomers - 90%
If this means what I think it means, isn't it practically guaranteed? Unless Smash is doing away with unlockable characters altogether.

Nominations
50+ Characters x5
 
Last edited:

YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
Joined
Dec 24, 2001
Messages
7,123
Location
Still up Peach's dress.
Alexandra Roivas:
Chance: 0.001%

Just a little too unlikely to happen, simply put.

Want: 10%
Could be interesting to see what they can actually use from the game. I'm not sure how well the sanity meter would translate for instance.

Sandbag:
Chance: 0%

Few things standing in the way; Pacack listed most and there's actual Nintendo stars still available to be playable before we go all meta and gaze into Smash for inspiration for newcomers.

Want: 0%
I'd see it as a slap in the face to all the fans honestly. I'm sure I'm not the only one. Imagine if K. Rool or Ridley or Palutena DON'T make it in and Sandbag, an ITEM with very little moveset potential got in instead. How would that make you feel? Pretty annoyed right that your favourite potential newcomer is lower on the list of priorities than a punchbag?

Must not happen on the actual roster. I will genuinely not bother buying either game or a Wii U if this occurs.

Predictions:
Shantae: 5%

Semi popular, hugely unlikely.

Unlockable newcomers: 93%
I feel like this is highly likely judging from the past Smash games. I've seen a vocal minority against it though, but I don't think anyone who plays this game is amongst those.

Nominations:
5 X RTC Top Ten Member AT
 

Sabrewulf238

Smash Hero
Joined
Oct 17, 2007
Messages
5,164
Location
Ireland
Alexandra chance - 1%

It doesn't seem likely at all, unless Eternal Darkness is secretly getting a sequel.

Alexandra want - 80%

I would prefer Pious (He's a lich), but that's never gonna happen so Alex is my next bet. I watched a let's play and it really made me interested in an Eternal Darkness character. (Or even some kind of Eternal Darkness content)

--------------------------------------

Sandbag chance - 0.1%

Can't see it, I'm really being generous.....

Sandbag want - 0%

No.
 

woopyfrood

Smash Lord
Joined
Apr 23, 2008
Messages
1,062
What I just don't understand is... why, no, HOW can you like Sandbag?

This is a bag.... of sand.
It's inanimate.
It has no character development.
It's never said anything to make you like it.
It's never done anything to deserve praise.
So I guess what I'm trying to say is... what's with the low standards for characters?
Why not include another awesome character with badass moves and great character development?
But... a bag... filled with sand. With two eyes drawn on it. And that's what you like.
...I just can't....
Still a more endearing character than Wii Fit Trainer.
 

Groose

Smash Champion
Joined
Jun 14, 2013
Messages
2,228
Location
Villanova
Well, I won't have time to do a full update this afternoon, but I see merit in ending this day as quickly as possible. @Brawler610 ; I know you're good around 5PM or so; could you tally the noms and scores for me then, please? I'll be on briefly around then, and if I have the stuff I can go forward and end things for the day.

Here are all the characters, stages, and concepts listed by their "want" rating.



Possible newcomers

1. King K. Rool - 85.46%
2. Ridley - 81.21%
3. Little Mac (confirmed) - 77.00%
4. Palutena - 75.07%
5. Banjo Kazooie - 72.57%
6. Isaac - 68.46%
7. Dixie Kong - 68.25%
8. Shulk - 66.79%
9. Waddle Dee - 64.26%
10. Bomberman - 59.83%
11. Takamaru - 57.51%
12. Robin/Avatar - 56.00%
13. Dillon - 54.23%
14. Hades - 52.19%
15. Solo Tetra - 51.03%
16. Paper Mario - 50.97%
17. Toad - 50.29%
18. Pac-Man - 50.21%
19. Porky - 48.66%
20. Rhythm Wrestler - 48.50%
21. Lucina - 47.73%
22. Mona - 46.86%
23. Amaterasu - 46.53%
24. Toon Zelda and Tetra - 45.28%
25. Ray - 45.05%
26. Professor Layton - 44.89%
27. Anna - 44.77%
28. Mach Rider - 44.75%
29. Bowser Jr. - 44.55%
30. Chibi Robo - 44.47%
31. Simon Belmont - 44.43%
32. Waluigi (deconfirmed) - 44.13%
33. Meowth - 43.81%
34. Groose - 43.58%
35. Black Shadow - 43.00%
36. Blaziken - 42.93%
37. Rosalina (confirmed) - 42-90%
38. Muddy Mole - 42.54%
39. Saki - 42.46%
40. Rayman - 42.32%
41. Masked Man - 42.00%
42. Phoenix Wright - 41.98%
43. Midna - 41.95%
44. Skull Kid (deconfirmed) - 41.47%
45. Captain Rainbow - 40.74%
46. Starfy (deconfirmed) - 40.03%
47. Zoroark - 39.42%
48. Tom Nook - 38.46%
49. Samurai Goroh - 38.44%
50. Jimmy T. - 38.31%
51. Ganon - 38.29%
52. New Pokemon Trainer - 37.95%
53. (tie) Lynn - 37.86%
53. (tie) Sukapon - 37.86%
55. Black Mage - 37.78%
56. Andy - 37.38%
57. Cranky Kong - 37.20%
58. Wonder Red - 37.10%
59. Daitoryo - 36.80%
60. Donbe and Hikari - 36.79%
61. Kamek - 36.06%
62. Duck Hunt Dog - 35.43%
63. Fawful - 34.52%
64. Vaati - 34.30%
65. Excitebiker - 33.96%
66. Grovyle - 33.91%
67. Ghirahim - 33.76%
68. Matthew - 33.36%
69. Slime - 32.65%
70. Goku - 31.82%
71. Lip - 31.81%
72. Tails - 31.67%
73. Geno - 31.65%
74. Professor E. Gadd - 31.63%
75. Chrom and Lucina - 31.56%
76. Chrom - 31.46%
77. Magolor - 31.16%
78. Prince of Sable - 30.57%
79. Klonoa - 29.66%
80. Impa - 28.61%
81. Master Hand - 28.59%
82. Lloyd Irving - 28.34%
83. (tie) Mii - 28.26%
83. (tie) Medusa - 28.26%
85. Balloon fighter - 27.88%
86. Genesect - 27.75%
87. Ashley (deconfirmed) - 27.43%
88. Knuckles - 27.34%
89. Captain Syrup - 27.26%
90. Krystal - 27.05%
91. King Boo - 26.42%
92. Zero - 26.33%
93. Dark Samus - 26.32%
94. Slippy Toad - 25.35%
95. Masked Link - 24.91%
96. Travis Touchdown - 24.72%
97. Karate Joe - 24.71%
98. Dark Pit - 24.55%
99. Yarne - 24.52%
100. Victini - 24.39%
101. Ephraim - 24.05%
102. Aeron - 23.90%
103. Louie - 23.55%
104. Tingle - 23.31%
105. Harry - 22.52%
106. Quote 22.17%
107. Dr. Kawashima - 22.12%
108. Niku and Shiki - 21.84%
109. Leon - 21.79%
110. Sora - 21.49%
111. Alph - 21.36%
112. Zael - 21.18%
113. Bayonetta - 20.70%
114. Sandbag - 20.41%
115. Diskun - 20.12%
116. Isa - 19.79%
117. Micaiah - 18.98%
118. Eevee - 18.25%
119. Dark Matter - 17.67%
120. Rhythm Monkey - 17.65%
121. Reggie - 17.44%
122. Sheriff - 16.82%
123. Yarne and Owain - 16.38%
124. Sylveon - 16.20%
125. Tharja - 16.17%
126. Magnus - 15.79%
127. Alph, Brittany, and Charlie - 15.64%
128. Owain - 14.51%
129. Tiny Kong - 14.39%
130. Mike Jones - 14.18%
131. Anthony - 13.64%
132. Plasm Wraith - 13.43%
133. Daisy - 13.14%
134. Scrooge Mcduck - 12.96%
135. Count Bleck - 11.90%
136. Goemon - 11.80%
137. Omastar - 11.63%
138. Pauline - 11.43%
139. Nintendog - 11.13%
140. Ryu 10.00%
141. Stork - 9.75%
142. Primid - 9.05%
143. Chef Kawasaki - 9.03%
144. Nightmare - 8.58%
145. Reyn - 8.00%
146. Bulborb - 7.94%
147. Cloud - 7.75%
148. Ninten - 7.61%
149. Chancellor Cole - 7.59%
150. Athena Cykes 6.08%

Huge gap

151. Adam Malkovich - 0.43%

Veterans

1. Gannondorf - 90.62%
2. Mr. Game & Watch - 90.51%
3. Ice Climbers - 88.28%
4. Wolf - 84.17%
5. Mewtwo - 82.57%
6. Sonic (confirmed) - 80.75%
7. ROB - 80.06%
8. Lucas - 80.04%
9. Jigglypuff - 79.06%
10. Sheik - 79.02%
11. Ike - 77.59%
12. Pokemon Trainer - 77.00%
13. Falco - 74.74%
14. Lucario (confirmed) - 72.36%
15. Snake - 69.00%
16. Toon Link (confirmed) - 64.54%
17. Roy - 42.82%
18. Pichu - 25.90%
19. Dr. Mario - 18.01%
20. Young Link 6.52%

Stages

1. Bowser's Castle - 83.33%
2. Kirby's Epic Yarn - 68.48%
3.Rhythm Heaven - 68.31%
4. Gangplank Galleon - 65.30%
5. Super Mario 3D world - 64.77%
6. Tetris - 62.89%
7. Dr. Mario - 57. 13%
8. Cookie Country - 48.96%
9. Nutty Noon - 48.59%
10. Gyromite - 46.48%

Concepts

1. Promoted AT (confirmed) - 90.47%
2. Improved Stage Builder - 85.15%
3. Decloned Gannondorf - 82.24%
4. 4 Donkey Kong reps - 75.60%
5. Brawl Pokemon + Mewtwo - 74.11%
6. Extensive Alternate Costumes - 73.51%
7. DLC - 71.84%
8. Spear User - 66.36%
9. Zelda Newcomer - 64.67%
10. Unplayable Hanafuda rep - 62.17%
11. No Cuts - 57.91%
12. No Namco rep - 53.92%
13. Yoshi Overhaul - 50.87%
14. Playable Boss Mode - 43.04%
15. 6 Mario characters - 40. 78%
16. Rhythm Heaven rep - 37.98%
17. Fatal Frame rep - 35. 77%
18. Pokemon AT - 34.48%
19. Split up Pokemon Trainer - 26.48%
20. Bowser Jr. + Shadow Mario - 17.89%



If anyone sees any mistakes on here please let me know. I'll try to edit this at the end of each day, but please don't hold me to it.
YEEEEES! IT was my intntion to make this myself a while back, but it would've required too much time to maintain for me. I've dropped about a half a dozen little suggestions since then, but no one has taken me up on them.

If you could find the time to update this as often once per week (we don't need it everyday, just every now and again so it stays relatively relevant), I will link to it in the OP.
@ Groose Groose can we get some clarification about what is meant by "unlockable newcomers." Is it as simple as I think it is? Does it just mean, "Do you think some newcomers will be locked on new game files?"
As far as I understand, yes. There's been some fear going around saying that Sakurai will make every character unlocked from the start this time around; people hold this especially true for the newcomers, as they think they will all be utilized for promotion. An interesting theory (that I think may be partially true; I think there will only be a small number of hidden newcomers, but precedent is said against it.

The sad thing is if by any possibility Sandbag gets a higher score in want and chance than Alexandra, I will be done with the game and Facepalm to all of you, seriously guys you let a character like Sandbag get a higher score in Want than Alexandra before even try to research the game, see some videos or even know what is behind it? I will laugh to all of you and be so disappointed.

Sorry Groose not to respect you or the game but sometimes I wonder what is wrong with people, if you don´t know the f...ing game at least abstain of rating it because if you did make a research about it you could be really surprised of what could bring to the table with a unique moveset, levels, items and even music.
.n_n.
I'm just tossing this out there: the majority of users here are giving Alexandra a small amount of credit while tossing out Sandbag entirely. I plan on discarding them both now that I have spent fifteen minutes researching Eternal Darkness; Alexandra is from a franchise that doesn't fit in well with the Smash world and seems to have a bit of an uncertain future; Sandbag is a punching bag. There are what, two people, who think Sandbag is somehow a very likely character, and they are the primary reason that he'll beat Roivas.

In short, I suggest you don't stop playing because three people here see something in Sandbag that the rest of us don't see. Other posters have made it preeeety clear that they're the minority opinion here.
 

Mega Bidoof

Smash Hero
Joined
Aug 14, 2013
Messages
8,463
Location
The Drought
NNID
Link46
3DS FC
1160-9840-1542
so a little break from the vacation and ...
are you serious?

ok, screw roivas, don't care. Abstain.

but lord
Sandbag 0%
both chance and want

An let me say something here. I understand bidoof rates all absurd possibilities super high. I am ok with bluepikmin being the weird one here and pulling for a bunch of unlikelies because they are characters that even as retros and impossibilities, merit in some way some thought. Even if we don't all here understand that way.
But to come here and see that Sandbag has not only one but TWO ratings higher thatn 25%, then I'm sorry because we're talking of having such poor knowledge of statistics and humility that you're disrespecting this game and everyone here who participates in thisdday in and day out
In your rush to pull for the stupidest, most random garbage because "lol sakurai is random" you are making a mockery of the good honor Groose and other thread handlers place in you to NOT be biased in chance ratings and leave it in want ratings. In your rush to that one person who can call being right if the inevitable happens, you insult the people that actually spend time in their day to consider the most objective view possible to make sure we have proper data for posterity.

Seriously, I am not ok with this. As someone devoted to this thread and with huge respect for the people in it, I ask that anything as statistically stupidly high as 30 or 50 be ignored. It has no place outside of want especially when even if it made it in it'd be a WTF character. Those characters aren't as likely as getting one of two results on a coin toss.
And really, if this is allowed, I'll be seriously annoyed, because then i might as well just go to 0% or 100% because "you guys I'm so sure that ALL LOGIC" be damned.

Sorry for the rant. No predictions or nominations from me tonight.
I honestly think Sandbag has decent chance.
So no, I am not saying 30% because I want him, I am saying that because I honestly think he may get in.
 

YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
Joined
Dec 24, 2001
Messages
7,123
Location
Still up Peach's dress.
Still a more endearing character than Wii Fit Trainer.
I actually can't disagree with this, that's the saddest thing.

I know she has fans amongst you, but Sandbag's somehow got more charm and life within him than Wii Fit Trainer.

I blame her soulless dead eyes.

The sad thing is if by any possibility Sandbag gets a higher score in want and chance than Alexandra, I will be done with the game and Facepalm to all of you, seriously guys you let a character like Sandbag get a higher score in Want than Alexandra before even try to research the game, see some videos or even know what is behind it? I will laugh to all of you and be so disappointed.

Sorry Groose not to respect you or the game but sometimes I wonder what is wrong with people, if you don´t know the f...ing game at least abstain of rating it because if you did make a research about it you could be really surprised of what could bring to the table with a unique moveset, levels, items and even music.
.n_n.
Aren't we just rating how likely Alexandra herself is as a playable character? A trophy, an item or some music I could see happening more than the character herself.

But as Groose said the majority think Sandbag's unlikely. Unfortunately the majority also think Alexandra is unlikely, so a few overratings will tip it in Sandbags favour.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Here are all the characters, stages, and concepts listed by their "want" rating.



Possible newcomers

1. King K. Rool - 85.46%
2. Ridley - 81.21%
3. Little Mac (confirmed) - 77.00%
4. Palutena - 75.07%
5. Banjo Kazooie - 72.57%
6. Isaac - 68.46%
7. Dixie Kong - 68.25%
8. Shulk - 66.79%
9. Waddle Dee - 64.26%
10. Bomberman - 59.83%
11. Takamaru - 57.51%
12. Robin/Avatar - 56.00%
13. Dillon - 54.23%
14. Hades - 52.19%
15. Solo Tetra - 51.03%
16. Paper Mario - 50.97%
17. Toad - 50.29%
18. Pac-Man - 50.21%
19. Porky - 48.66%
20. Rhythm Wrestler - 48.50%
21. Lucina - 47.73%
22. Mona - 46.86%
23. Amaterasu - 46.53%
24. Toon Zelda and Tetra - 45.28%
25. Ray - 45.05%
26. Professor Layton - 44.89%
27. Anna - 44.77%
28. Mach Rider - 44.75%
29. Bowser Jr. - 44.55%
30. Chibi Robo - 44.47%
31. Simon Belmont - 44.43%
32. Waluigi (deconfirmed) - 44.13%
33. Meowth - 43.81%
34. Groose - 43.58%
35. Black Shadow - 43.00%
36. Blaziken - 42.93%
37. Rosalina (confirmed) - 42-90%
38. Muddy Mole - 42.54%
39. Saki - 42.46%
40. Rayman - 42.32%
41. Masked Man - 42.00%
42. Phoenix Wright - 41.98%
43. Midna - 41.95%
44. Skull Kid (deconfirmed) - 41.47%
45. Captain Rainbow - 40.74%
46. Starfy (deconfirmed) - 40.03%
47. Zoroark - 39.42%
48. Tom Nook - 38.46%
49. Samurai Goroh - 38.44%
50. Jimmy T. - 38.31%
51. Ganon - 38.29%
52. New Pokemon Trainer - 37.95%
53. (tie) Lynn - 37.86%
53. (tie) Sukapon - 37.86%
55. Black Mage - 37.78%
56. Andy - 37.38%
57. Cranky Kong - 37.20%
58. Wonder Red - 37.10%
59. Daitoryo - 36.80%
60. Donbe and Hikari - 36.79%
61. Kamek - 36.06%
62. Duck Hunt Dog - 35.43%
63. Fawful - 34.52%
64. Vaati - 34.30%
65. Excitebiker - 33.96%
66. Grovyle - 33.91%
67. Ghirahim - 33.76%
68. Matthew - 33.36%
69. Slime - 32.65%
70. Goku - 31.82%
71. Lip - 31.81%
72. Tails - 31.67%
73. Geno - 31.65%
74. Professor E. Gadd - 31.63%
75. Chrom and Lucina - 31.56%
76. Chrom - 31.46%
77. Magolor - 31.16%
78. Prince of Sable - 30.57%
79. Klonoa - 29.66%
80. Impa - 28.61%
81. Master Hand - 28.59%
82. Lloyd Irving - 28.34%
83. (tie) Mii - 28.26%
83. (tie) Medusa - 28.26%
85. Balloon fighter - 27.88%
86. Genesect - 27.75%
87. Ashley (deconfirmed) - 27.43%
88. Knuckles - 27.34%
89. Captain Syrup - 27.26%
90. Krystal - 27.05%
91. King Boo - 26.42%
92. Zero - 26.33%
93. Dark Samus - 26.32%
94. Slippy Toad - 25.35%
95. Masked Link - 24.91%
96. Travis Touchdown - 24.72%
97. Karate Joe - 24.71%
98. Dark Pit - 24.55%
99. Yarne - 24.52%
100. Victini - 24.39%
101. Ephraim - 24.05%
102. Aeron - 23.90%
103. Louie - 23.55%
104. Tingle - 23.31%
105. Harry - 22.52%
106. Quote 22.17%
107. Dr. Kawashima - 22.12%
108. Niku and Shiki - 21.84%
109. Leon - 21.79%
110. Sora - 21.49%
111. Alph - 21.36%
112. Zael - 21.18%
113. Bayonetta - 20.70%
114. Sandbag - 20.41%
115. Diskun - 20.12%
116. Isa - 19.79%
117. Micaiah - 18.98%
118. Eevee - 18.25%
119. Dark Matter - 17.67%
120. Rhythm Monkey - 17.65%
121. Reggie - 17.44%
122. Sheriff - 16.82%
123. Yarne and Owain - 16.38%
124. Sylveon - 16.20%
125. Tharja - 16.17%
126. Magnus - 15.79%
127. Alph, Brittany, and Charlie - 15.64%
128. Owain - 14.51%
129. Tiny Kong - 14.39%
130. Mike Jones - 14.18%
131. Anthony - 13.64%
132. Plasm Wraith - 13.43%
133. Daisy - 13.14%
134. Scrooge Mcduck - 12.96%
135. Count Bleck - 11.90%
136. Goemon - 11.80%
137. Omastar - 11.63%
138. Pauline - 11.43%
139. Nintendog - 11.13%
140. Ryu 10.00%
141. Stork - 9.75%
142. Primid - 9.05%
143. Chef Kawasaki - 9.03%
144. Nightmare - 8.58%
145. Reyn - 8.00%
146. Bulborb - 7.94%
147. Cloud - 7.75%
148. Ninten - 7.61%
149. Chancellor Cole - 7.59%
150. Athena Cykes 6.08%

Huge gap

151. Adam Malkovich - 0.43%

Veterans

1. Gannondorf - 90.62%
2. Mr. Game & Watch - 90.51%
3. Ice Climbers - 88.28%
4. Wolf - 84.17%
5. Mewtwo - 82.57%
6. Sonic (confirmed) - 80.75%
7. ROB - 80.06%
8. Lucas - 80.04%
9. Jigglypuff - 79.06%
10. Sheik - 79.02%
11. Ike - 77.59%
12. Pokemon Trainer - 77.00%
13. Falco - 74.74%
14. Lucario (confirmed) - 72.36%
15. Snake - 69.00%
16. Toon Link (confirmed) - 64.54%
17. Roy - 42.82%
18. Pichu - 25.90%
19. Dr. Mario - 18.01%
20. Young Link 6.52%

Stages

1. Bowser's Castle - 83.33%
2. Kirby's Epic Yarn - 68.48%
3.Rhythm Heaven - 68.31%
4. Gangplank Galleon - 65.30%
5. Super Mario 3D world - 64.77%
6. Tetris - 62.89%
7. Dr. Mario - 57. 13%
8. Cookie Country - 48.96%
9. Nutty Noon - 48.59%
10. Gyromite - 46.48%

Concepts

1. Promoted AT (confirmed) - 90.47%
2. Improved Stage Builder - 85.15%
3. Decloned Gannondorf - 82.24%
4. 4 Donkey Kong reps - 75.60%
5. Brawl Pokemon + Mewtwo - 74.11%
6. Extensive Alternate Costumes - 73.51%
7. DLC - 71.84%
8. Spear User - 66.36%
9. Zelda Newcomer - 64.67%
10. Unplayable Hanafuda rep - 62.17%
11. No Cuts - 57.91%
12. No Namco rep - 53.92%
13. Yoshi Overhaul - 50.87%
14. Playable Boss Mode - 43.04%
15. 6 Mario characters - 40. 78%
16. Rhythm Heaven rep - 37.98%
17. Fatal Frame rep - 35. 77%
18. Pokemon AT - 34.48%
19. Split up Pokemon Trainer - 26.48%
20. Bowser Jr. + Shadow Mario - 17.89%



If anyone sees any mistakes on here please let me know. I'll try to edit this at the end of each day, but please don't hold me to it.
Wow, great work on this list. I never imagined someone would come forward so quickly to do something like this after I made a simple request.
 
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AcanthusLux

Smash Rookie
Joined
Aug 13, 2013
Messages
11
I don't come around here much, so what luck to stumble in when one of my favorite characters is up for discussion.

Alexandra Roivas

Chance: <1%
I think that Eternal Darkness is, tragically, dead in the water. Also, if I recall it was a total flop in Japan, and probably doesn't even have the cult status there that it enjoys in America.

Want: 100% (10,000%)

Eternal Darkness is almost certainly my favorite single player Nintendo game, and among my favorite games of all time. It was one of a handful of titles that really sold me on the Gamecube era, and, I believe, the first game that I completed 100%. It really defined my tastes--in mechanics, aesthetics and storytelling--during the period I played it in.

As for Alexandra herself...I kind of agree that she is too generic visually, and would probably need to be "re-imagined" a bit. But the sound design for her character...I can still hear the voices of the ancients chanting out the names of runes as you cast magick. It was amazing, and would be absolutely incredible to hear as part of regular Smash matches.

So for me personally, if Alexandra were added, Smash's roster would be complete and anything else added would be a bonus.

And of course, there's the little fact that an appearance by Alexandra would much improve the chances of the series continuing...

Sandbag

Chance: 1%

Mechanically difficult and we've already seen it in Little Mac's trailer. An interesting idea, but the roster is already feeling crowded with a lot of important characters left to go.

Want: 45%

This was kind of hard to decide. I like weird characters. I also think Smash is one of Nintendo's biggest franchises now, and so maybe does deserve its own representation among the all-stars. Still...
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Well, I won't have time to do a full update this afternoon, but I see merit in ending this day as quickly as possible. @Brawler610 ; I know you're good around 5PM or so; could you tally the noms and scores for me then, please? I'll be on briefly around then, and if I have the stuff I can go forward and end things for the day.
Sure! I'll tally the nominations and scores for you!
 

Keto

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Apr 29, 2007
Messages
270
Listen kid, you may not realize it, but the butthurt is a direct result of the disrespect, so it is there. And calling it butthurt doesn't make it ok.
Idc how lost or unique you may be, rating Sandbag 50% for chance is just wrong. Even if the bag makes it, your rating is insultingly wrong. Too much time and sweat have been put in this thread to make it what it is for me to be ok with you taking a piss on it.

Even you admit there's bias! That stuff belongs in want dude.
Referring to me as a 'kid' and 'lost' is pretty disrespectful coming from someone who likes to throw the word respect around a lot. I do not feel disrespected because I can tell how much of a passion you have for this game. But it is just that, a game. I am an adult, while I shouldn't have to explain myself I will because I want to clarify a few things. All of these ratings are opinion based, even if they are based on solid evidence and fact. People have different morals and values which will determine the scale that they use to make any decision in life including a characters chances to be included in a video game. Your values are different than mine (mine are different from most people and I accept that), but because my values are different than yours doesn't make them worse. I do not care if I am in the minority in this. I have an opinion based on a scale off of my values and I applied it. Nobody made it anywhere in life by doing exactly what others have told them, or else we would all still think that the universe revolves around Earth.
 

NickerBocker

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 8, 2013
Messages
1,091
Location
AB, Canada
3DS FC
2492-4251-5054
Alex Roivas
Chance: 1%
Want 75%

The game is pretty dead imo. But it would be interesting to see her game mechanics in Smash I suppose.

Sandbag
Chance: 100%
Want: 100%

Hes the Sandbag! Why wouldnt he return to minigames like home run contest. Hes always so satisfying to sm.... wait, were talking about a playable character? Like with a moveset and everything?

Actual Chance: 0.01%
Actual Want: 0%

I mean I guess it could happen? But why? What good would this do? If Samdbag were to be playable it would unleash a ****storm of unhappy fans if, say, K Rool was left out, or Mewtwo was left out. Ladies and Gentleman, this is the definition of scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Shantae: 2.7%
Unlockables: 92%

Nominations:
Lupus x5

EDIT: Do you really Think that Sandbag has a better chance than actual Nintendo Allstars?
 
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Mega Bidoof

Smash Hero
Joined
Aug 14, 2013
Messages
8,463
Location
The Drought
NNID
Link46
3DS FC
1160-9840-1542
Listen kid, you may not realize it, but the butthurt is a direct result of the disrespect, so it is there. And calling it butthurt doesn't make it ok.
Idc how lost or unique you may be, rating Sandbag 50% for chance is just wrong. Even if the bag makes it, your rating is insultingly wrong. Too much time and sweat have been put in this thread to make it what it is for me to be ok with you taking a piss on it.

Even you admit there's bias! That stuff belongs in want dude.
Or, you know, we actually believe Sandbag has a decent chance.

Just saying.
 

Groose

Smash Champion
Joined
Jun 14, 2013
Messages
2,228
Location
Villanova
Day to end in an hour. Grabbing a snack and getting right on it.

@Brawler610 I have things today; don't worry about counting anything up. My schedule opened up: my client cancelled an hour long tutoring session, my history teacher postponed the project that I needed over an hour of work on tonight, and I got an hour free period when my other teacher was too sick to teach. Suddenly, I went from a busy night to an easy one, all in two hours!
 
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Aqua Rock X

Smash Ace
Joined
Oct 29, 2007
Messages
717
Location
Tennessee
I got Brawler610'd

ALEXANDRIA ROVIAS

Chance: .1% - No.

Want: 0% - Not today.

SANDBAG

Chance: 0% - Never.

Want: 70% - Yes!

Shantae Prediction: .03% - Nope!

Unlockable Newcomers Prediction: 50% - Split.

Nominations:
Other M Ridley x5
 

Groose

Smash Champion
Joined
Jun 14, 2013
Messages
2,228
Location
Villanova
Just finished the noms. Going to be a little bit before I can bring things to an end. Gimme thirty or so.

Woah, woah, woah. I didn't think we were so close to a meltdown here. I know that Sandbag is a polarizing character, but you should try to keep it as civil as possible. Sandbag setractor, don't be so quick to bash; Sandbag supporters, try to explain your viewpoints a little bit more and don't retaliate. I applaud @ Pacack Pacack in particular today for trying to help keep things peaceful. Let's take some advice from one of my favorite YouTubers on conduct, eh?


I will start from the bottom and go to the top. That means...
x5 Dixie Kong, who I gave a 15%... I think there was only a little bias there... Ha... Ha... (sarcasm doesn't travel through the internet well most the time, so just for the record, I was being sarcastic)
It's impossible to rid ourselves of all bias... but it is still a goal we should all aim for. A wise decision.
 

Gunla

wow, gaming!
BRoomer
Joined
Aug 18, 2013
Messages
9,069
Location
Iowa
@ Pacack Pacack
While I do disagree entirely, your usage of many systems and mathmatical calculations in your rating is badass as all hell. Kudos. You've honestly earned my respect for this by seriously backing yourself up.
 

Groose

Smash Champion
Joined
Jun 14, 2013
Messages
2,228
Location
Villanova
Alexandra Roivas: 0.01% chance
In Super Smash Bros. Brawl, Nintendo tried to pay homage to as much of their history as possible. When they neglect to add even a sticker for a series, that's a bit of an indicator. I'd say that's especially true in this case--Eternal Darkness did so poorly overseas that it wouldn't my surprise me if the developers don't really know anything about it. Even if they did, it would probably take a strong push to knock her all the way into a playable slot, and she probably isn't seen as a character that meshes well with the others. Possible, but unlikely as heck.

Alexandra Roivas Want: 0%
I played many a GameCube title back in the day and have grown to want characters from the era (like Ray), but I never played hers and really don't have that much interest.

Sandbag Chance: 0.01%

Sakurai has added some unusual characters in the past--Wii Fit Trainer, Game and Watch, and R.O.B. Can testify to that--but he's never made a move as flamboyant as adding a freaking punching bag with eyes into the mix. Really, he has no reason to--Sandbag is never requested, has no obvious moveset potential (unlike Game and Watch), isn't an important character in his own series (unlike Wii Fit Trainer) (Sandbag is a minigame character and takes a backseat in his own series), lacks the normal body shape for functions like grabbing items, and I could just keep going on and on. Additionally, Sakurai is/was pretty humble, and I don't think he'd add a character from Smash for the sake of it. Really, I can only see him adding Sandbag as a joke, and we've never had a joke this big played on is... This is beyond Wii Fit Trainer levels. Besides, I doubt we'll get a character that out there when we've already gotten WFT. I'd say he's possible, but has practically nothing going for him that couldn't be better practiced by other characters.

Sandbag Want: 10%
I wouldn't really want him. I can see some merit: he'd be an amazing joke pick, and he'd certainly be unique. Heck, I'd prefer him to Wii Fit Trainer. However, I'd actually like to get characters that people actually like instead of just throwing in random characters for the heck of it. If you really need a joke character, pick someone semi-popular like Tingle or something.

Dillon x5

Day Over

Home Run!
 

Groose

Smash Champion
Joined
Jun 14, 2013
Messages
2,228
Location
Villanova
Alexandra Roivas (Eternal Darkness)
1.32% chance
26.29% want

I may have done some research, but I didn't do nearly enough to come up with anything witty to say here. Sorry.

Sandbag (Super Smash Bros.)
2.85% chance (previously 0.63%)
18.72% want (previously 20.41%)

Sandbag got smashed. Just not as much as last ime.

Today we're calming things down with a nice, more-mundane character. Finally a break from the outrage! Please rate Shantae in chance and want. Additionally, we're discussing the possibility of unlockable newcomers. Will some of them be under lock and key? Please rate "Unlockable Newcomers" in chance and want.

Right, so we're going to have a non-rage inducing character tomorrow, too, am I right? Am I right? Oh. Shadow. Right. Uh-oh. Please predict how Shadow the Hedgehog and Paper Mario will do.
 

OcarinaOfDoom

Smash Lord
Joined
Apr 27, 2013
Messages
1,106
NNID
OcarinaOfDoom
Shantae gets 0s all around.

UnLockNew: 100% MegaMan
Want: 50%

Shadow: 0.23%
Paper MariO; 13.45%

Robin x 3
Omastar x 2
 

Keto

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Apr 29, 2007
Messages
270
I apologize for the uproar caused by Sandbag's rating, that was not my intention.


Shantae: Abstain

Unlockable Newcomers chance: 99% Why not?
Want: 100%

Shadow: 3.7%
Paper Mario: 17.6%
 

Rockaphin

Smash Champion
Joined
Feb 13, 2014
Messages
2,490
Location
Rogueport
NNID
Rockaphin
3DS FC
2595-0113-8473
Shantae:
Can't rate

Unlockable Newcomers:
Chance: 97%
Want: 100%

Predictions:
Shadow: 6.2%
Paper Mario :): 20.9%

Nominations:
Character Specific Victory Themes x5
 
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