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Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

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BluePikmin11

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Sandbag Chance: 0.01% Has no plausability as a fighter and doesn't bring anything new to the table.
Sandbag Want: 0% No Smash characters, please.
Shantae Prediction: 0.5%
Unlockable Newcomers Prediction: 96.76%
Nominations:
x5 All Popular Newcomer Candidates.

As for the Pikmin trio.... heck, I'm having a hard time imagining even their tilts and aerials.

I'll give my ratings tomorrow.
Just like Olimar, but with a few different attacks to make them diverse. :p
Maybe even trio attacks when they are together, It's not that hard in reality, it's just that you gotta get the team attacks working after that.
 
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McDuckletts

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Alexandra
Chance: 0.01%
Nintendo pretty much forgot that this series even exists.
Want: 0%
She looks kinda...bland.

Sandbag
Chance: 0%
Poor Sandbag. He's been smashed, crushed, sliced, incinerated, and home-ran for nearly 13 years now, and it doesn't seem like that will ever change in the near future. Truly a tragic turn of events for the guy. He thought he was getting his big break when Melee was announced, only to then have those dreams obliterated by a home-run bat. *sniff*...I'm literally crying right now, I mean...it's just so unfortunate...
Want: 0%
...With that said, I don't think he would translate very well into a playable character. He only works as a punching bag because, well, that's literally what he is.

Predictions
Shantae: 1.42%
Unlockable Newcomers: 99%

Nom: Shadow X5
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
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Jan 19, 2013
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Alexandra Rovas

Chance - 0.02% - I here that there was an attempt to fundraise a spiritual successor. It failed to gain enough steam to pass. While there might be some interest in the magic of The Ancient Things From Beyond The Veil, I doubt it will be playable.

Want - 10% - I'd be happier with a Stage, honestly. Who wants to have the TV go crazy with Sanity effects, as the system plays tricks on you? I'd certainly be fun (And terrifying. Mostly terrifying.)


Sandbag...

Not worthy of comment. 0% in chance and want.


Predictions

Shante - 0.32% - Aww... WayForward deserves better than this.

Unlockable Newcomers - 44.6% - Confusion leaning towards hesitation.


Nominations

Y'know, I think I'll give Kirby a break for now. I'll wait until after Triple Deluxe's release before exploding with stuff for them. For now though...

Chrom as an Assist Trophy X5
 

LoneKonWolf

Lazy Lonely Lurker☕
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Alexandra roivas (chance and want) - 0%
. . . . . . I got nothing
Sandbag -
Sandbag
Chance:
0%

Want: 0%


Yup. That's my rating for Sandbag.
i'm stealing this for my rating too, it perfectly explains it
shantae - 1.58%
not expecting to high
unlockables newcomers - 87.92%
many think its guarantee, with what happen in the past and sakurai liking to keep surprises, but yet many have doubt with the recent showing of veterans along with two newcomers that look like their suppose to be unlocked, my guess it'll be high, but not 90 high
nominations:
I've saved up my nominations from last time, so i'm just going to use them here
pirate shipX10 (legend of Zelda)
 

OcarinaOfDoom

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sandbag: 0s. ALL THE 0s.
alexandra: 1%
want: 0%
Shantae: 0.08%
UnNew: 56%
Robin x 3
Helix x 2
 

Gunla

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Abstaining from Roivas

Sandbag: &%$# No
He doesn't deserve a PVC. He deserves senseless Shirogane beatdown.
Chances: 0%- Shown in a trailer and wasn't declared as a character. DCed, no contest. If that happens in any sort of image or promotion, we treat it the same. Like an AT, like an item, Sandbag is effectively doomed.

Want:

00.00%-No, he deserves it outfront.

CASE CLOSED.

Predictions:
Not the Patty Wagon- .5%
Unlockable Newcomers- Megaman? 50%

Nominations:
Jack Frost (SMT) X5

About BWD- I'm abstaining when he gets here to prevent overrating. I got a bit biased and people decided to counter-rate. All in all, one of the worst days in RTC history. But his real chances are the mid-high 40s. It will just end poorly like last time, but we really can't do much than swear by pact. :evil: So please, let's wait for his nominations until MK or Dedede's Side Special is shown? Because then it will make sense
 
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Toxicroaker

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Alexandra: 0.01%
Want: 0%

Sandbag: 0.02%
Want: 0%

Shantae: 1.12%
Unlockable Newcomers: 89.62%

I'm going to look through and see which characters I was being biased on. I will then revote them. The list is...
Bandana Dee: 55%
Ridley: 90%
King K. Rool: 75%
Bomberman: 10%
Dixie Kong: 15%

I will start from the bottom and go to the top. That means...
x5 Dixie Kong, who I gave a 15%... I think there was only a little bias there... Ha... Ha... (sarcasm doesn't travel through the internet well most the time, so just for the record, I was being sarcastic)
 

Smasher 101

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Alexandra's chances: 0% - It won't happen.
Want: 50% - Indifferent.

Sandbargh's chances: 0% - It's just a punching bag, it doesn't have anything it could use to fight. Smash originals are very unlikely and if one was playable, there's the iconic final boss that's the only one to be in every game thus far. And of course, there's the Little Mac video. There really is nothing going for it.
Want: 0% - No. I'd go into the negatives if I could. Simply put, out of all of the characters we've rated, this remains my least favorite idea. I'm sorry, but to me, a freaking punching bag of all things makes characters like Omastar and Yarne + Owain seem like decent choices.

Shantae prediction: 0.68% - This won't do well.
Unlockable Newcomers prediction: 91.92% - This will.

Zoroark x5
 
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D

Deleted member

Guest
I'm going to look through and see which characters I was being biased on. I will then revote them. The list is...
Bomberman: 10%
I don't think that you need to rerate Bomberman just because of the 10%. His score is (sadly) fine as it is. The poor little White Bomber will probably take another beating because of the Snake quote where people will deflate his want (and possibly his chance) and inflate Snake's.
 
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andimidna

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I saw somebody talking about a top 10 least chance and want... I was curious too


Least Likely:

1. Yarne and Owain Team
1. Athena Cykes
1. Scrooge McDuck
2. Chancellor Cole
2. Banjo and Kazooie
3. Omastar
4. Amaterasu
5. Yarne (alone)
6. Count Bleck
7. Nightmare
7. Ryu
8. Nintendog (Deconfirmed, should I count it?)
(Real) 8. Neku and Shiki
9. Chef Kawasaki
10. Sora

Least Wanted:

(1. Adam Malkovich) it's not in the OP, but I know it's here
2. Athena Cykes
3. Chancellor Cole
4. Ninten
5. Cloud Strife
6. Bulborb
7. Reyn
8. Nightmare
9. Chef Kawasaki
10. Primid
Since Adam isn't in the OP... I'll do the 11th
11. Stork


Poor Athena Cykes ad Chef Kawasaki... they got in both lists.
 

Chandeelure

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-Alexandra Roivas:
Chances: 0,5
Want: 50%

-Sandbag:
Chances: 0%
Want: 1%

-Shantae Prediction: 2,1%

-Unlockable Newcomers Prediction: 98,9%

-Nomination: Dillon X5
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Alexandra Roivas

Chance: 1% - At this point, I don't see anything from Eternal Darkness getting mentioned, not even a trophy or sticker.
Want: 0% - Sorry, no thanks.

Sandbag

Chance: 0% - I don't see it happening, he should remain a punching bag like he has in Melee & Brawl, besides, its unlikely we'll get an original character from Smash Bros to be playable.
Want: 0% - No, no, no, no, no. I'd take the playable Master Hand over Sandbag

Nomination: Peppy Hare x5
 
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UltimateWario

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Alex from Eternal Darkness
Chance: 1% - She is possible. That's it.
Want: 25% - Sure, she'd be pretty cool. I've played a bit of her game, but you spend most of the time playing as other people and not Alex herself. If her main weapon were her "signature" shotgun, that'd make her even more fun, but that's impossible.

Sandbag
Chance: Sakurai% - But seriously, no.
Want: 0% = But seriously, no.

Nom - Last Minute Clone Filler x5
 
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Hippopotasauce

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Alex Likelihood: 1%
Want: 10%

Sandbag: 0%

Shantae: 1.62%
Unlockable Newcomers: 61.5%

50+ stages per version x5
 
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Zhadgon

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Alexandra Roivas
Chance: 3%
Want: 100% She will put in shame Robin, Isaac and any other magical user with her undead, dark and almost diabolical spells, she literally screams moveset potential and uniqueness beyond any imagination, if only more people would know about this gem the rate of want would be much higher.

Sandbag:
Chance: Hahaha... NO! 0.001%
Want: Hehehe... NAH! 0.001%

Nomination
5 x 7 or more villains as playable characters.

.n_n.
 
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Spears In Smash Bros.

Smash Journeyman
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Alexandra Roivas: 0.05%
Doubt it'll even be mentioned.

Want: 6.5%
Well, the game looks somewhat intriguing...

Bag of Sand: 0.01%
Only slightly higher than Bag of Mulch, Bag of Rice, and Bag of Quikrete.

Want: 5%
Being incapable of independent locomotion, he's the perfect character for veteran players looking to shame those with lesser skill.

Shantae prediction: 1.21%
Unlockable Newcomers prediction: 99.98%

Nominate:
The Protoman x5
 

Mega Bidoof

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CRAP! I'm late for Sandy's big day!

Sandbag Chance: 30%
As I stated many times, he is feasible, and has a decent chance of getting in, especially since Sakurai wants uniqueness.

Smash itself has become an All-Star Nintendo series, and deserves its own playable character. And Sandy is the most iconic!

Sakurai is looking well-represent series, while also having uniqueness. Sandbag reeks of uniqueness!

And yes, he can fight:
Believe his "A moves" would be somewhat similar to this, like he is spazzing out in a way.

All-in-all, Sandbag isn't that Farfetch'd. And maybe, just maybe, he will pick up that old wooden Home-Run-Bat, and take his revenge!
Sandbag for Smash!

Sandbag Want: 100%
Much want.
He is in my Top 6 Most Wanted, along with Fawful, Porky, K. Rool, Ridley, and Simon Belmont.
SANDBAG FOR SMASH!
BIDOOF OUT!!!


Oh... I have to do the predictions and stuff.

Shantae Prediction: 1%
Better 3rd parties than her.

Unlockable Newcomers: 99.9%
Why not?


Omnomnominations: X5 Roy

Ok, for real this time:
BIDOOF OUT!!!
 
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Rockaphin

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Alexandra Roivas:
Can't rate

Sandbag:
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Predictions:
Unlockable Newcomers: 97.6%

Nominations:
Paper Mario Stage x10
 

Smady

Smash Master
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I saw somebody talking about a top 10 least chance and want... I was curious too


Least Likely:

1. Yarne and Owain Team
1. Athena Cykes
1. Scrooge McDuck
2. Chancellor Cole
2. Banjo and Kazooie
3. Omastar
4. Amaterasu
5. Yarne (alone)
6. Count Bleck
7. Nightmare
7. Ryu
8. Nintendog (Deconfirmed, should I count it?)
(Real) 8. Neku and Shiki
9. Chef Kawasaki
10. Sora

Least Wanted:

(1. Adam Malkovich) it's not in the OP, but I know it's here
2. Athena Cykes
3. Chancellor Cole
4. Ninten
5. Cloud Strife
6. Bulborb
7. Reyn
8. Nightmare
9. Chef Kawasaki
10. Primid
Since Adam isn't in the OP... I'll do the 11th
11. Stork


Poor Athena Cykes ad Chef Kawasaki... they got in both lists.
Thanks for compiling this list! I was the one who requested it. Want is especially interesting, chance I think is ordered in the OP, but not want.
 

andimidna

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CRAP! I'm late for Sandy's big day!

Sandbag Chance: 30%
As I stated many times, he is feasible, and has a decent chance of getting in, especially since Sakurai wants uniqueness.

Smash itself has become an All-Star Nintendo series, and deserves its own playable character. And Sandy is the most iconic!

Sakurai is looking well-represent series, while also having uniqueness. Sandbag reeks of uniqueness!

And yes, he can fight:
Believe his "A moves" would be somewhat similar to this, like he is spazzing out in a way.

All-in-all, Sandbag isn't that Farfetch'd. And maybe, just maybe, he will pick up that old wooden Home-Run-Bat, and take his revenge!
Sandbag for Smash!

Sandbag Want: 100%
Much want.
He is in my Top 6 Most Wanted, along with Fawful, Porky, K. Rool, Ridley, and Simon Belmont.
SANDBAG FOR SMASH!
BIDOOF OUT!!!

Oh... I have to do the predictions and stuff.

Shantae Prediction: 1%
Better 3rd parties than her.

Unlockable Newcomers: 99.9%
Why not?


Omnomnominations: X5 Roy

Ok, for real this time:
BIDOOF OUT!!!
So you think Sakurai would put a future newcomer in a different newcomer trailer? Getting beaten up?
You think Sandbag will be able to hold the confirmed homerun bat and compete in a competition to hit another Sandbag that looks exactly the same?
Sandbag moving
Sandbag kicking
Sandbag punching
Really?
It's fine if you want it 100% but that doesn't mean you have to/ should give it a rating that makes it sound equal to characters in the top 20. Or that it's barely below most likely happening.
It was never really feasible, and is now deconfirmed. His chances should definitely be below Balloon Fighter's...

Bag of Sand: 0.01%
Only slightly higher than Bag of Mulch, Bag of Rice, and Bag of Quikrete.
I lol'd

Bag of Quikrete for Smash!
 
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Toxicroaker

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CRAP! I'm late for Sandy's big day!

Sandbag Chance: 30%
As I stated many times, he is feasible, and has a decent chance of getting in, especially since Sakurai wants uniqueness.

Smash itself has become an All-Star Nintendo series, and deserves its own playable character. And Sandy is the most iconic!

Sakurai is looking well-represent series, while also having uniqueness. Sandbag reeks of uniqueness!

And yes, he can fight:
Believe his "A moves" would be somewhat similar to this, like he is spazzing out in a way.

All-in-all, Sandbag isn't that Farfetch'd. And maybe, just maybe, he will pick up that old wooden Home-Run-Bat, and take his revenge!
Sandbag for Smash!

Sandbag Want: 100%
Much want.
He is in my Top 6 Most Wanted, along with Fawful, Porky, K. Rool, Ridley, and Simon Belmont.
SANDBAG FOR SMASH!
BIDOOF OUT!!!

Oh... I have to do the predictions and stuff.

Shantae Prediction: 1%
Better 3rd parties than her.

Unlockable Newcomers: 99.9%
Why not?


Omnomnominations: X5 Roy

Ok, for real this time:
BIDOOF OUT!!!
That is probably the worst case of bias that I have ever seen (yes, worse than BluePikmin11's ABC Captains rating)
 

Mega Bidoof

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So you think Sakurai would put a future newcomer in a different newcomer trailer?
Getting beaten up?
You seem to be forgetting that Sakurai is an unpredictable troll.
That is something he would definitley do.

You think Sandbag will be able to hold the confirmed homerun bat
The Homerun Bat is redesigned and looks completely different.
Sandbag would get the old, wooden one. The same one that was used to beat him up in 2 games.

and compete in a competition to hit another Sandbag that looks exactly the same?
There could easily be an Alfonzo-style replacement. Like a blue Sandbag or something, I don't know.

Sandbag moving
Sandbag kicking
Sandbag punching
Really?
Again, this.


That is probably the worst case of bias that I have ever seen (yes, worse than BluePikmin11's ABC Captains rating)
Not bias.
Delusional-ness.
But I firmly predict Sandbag until I am proven to be wrong, in which I case I will respectfully accept my failure, and immediately start Sandbag hype for Smash 5.
 
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Smady

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Alexandra

0.1% Chance: Nintendo owns the Eternal Darkness IP and that game for the GameCube was popular, if not a raving success. The problem is the series is long dead and not unless we see a revival for Survival Horror games - something Nintendo tried at but failed to sustain in that same generation, buying off the Resident Evil series too - I doubt they care. This was not a game about the protagonists, it was more of their mental state.

The GameCube game has a myriad of awkward problems surrounding its controversial developer. Recently their off-shoot tried to use Kickstarter to crowd fund a spiritual sequel to Eternal Darkness, then turned to a less conventional means of the same idea. I think Nintendo would like to distance themselves as far as possible from that debacle. The only reason this has a sliver of a chance of getting a rep is purely because Nintendo owns the franchise's rights.

1% Want: The percent is there for the few thousand odd players who'd love to get a rep for Eternal Darkness out there. It'd not be my pick for a Survival Horror rep though, that would go to Leon Kennedy as a third-party. Resident Evil 4 is the biggest survival horror game in Nintendo's history and began as a Nintendo exclusive, but he is barely more likely than Alexandra.

I really don't know much about this game or character beyond jump scares and seeing a friend of mine play it about ten years ago when I was a kid. It's mostly got the workings of a great stage, not so much fun newcomer.

Sandbag

1% Chance: Little Mac's trailer was a death knell for this non-entity. I can imagine a moveset for this, it would actually be pretty satisfying to play and defeat, but I don't think Sakurai would be so selfish as to add one of his original Smash creations to the roster, whether or not they are deserved candidates. If he was to add one, Sandbag was top of the list, but again, he was in that trailer. There's no surprise to him being a newcomer, and it isn't happening.

5% Want: I don't hate the idea entirely, but it's going to be what, an incredibly random set using obnoxious hitboxes on "attacks" where Sandbag bends its sandy body in contorted shapes. That's just awkward and would eventually get old. If you want a crazy, over-the-top re-interpretation of a character to give them new powers, where they were before an inanimate object, there are better characters to use than Sandbag.

I'm genuinely sorry I can't get behind the Sandbag campaign, but that's just how I feel.

Shantae Prediction: 0.6%
Third-party and too obscure for anyone to consider a serious contender, though she could have a great moveset.
Unlockable Newcomers Prediction: 90%
Isn't this a foregone conclusion? It may be clones, or a last minute addition, but to not have them would be a surprise.

Arino (Retro Game Master) x5
 
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False Sense

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Sandbag: 0% Chance.

Ok, typically, I don't like saying that a character is impossible. It has to be a very special case for me to say that a character has no chance of being in Smash.

I'm going to say that Sandbag is impossible.

For starters, it's a punching bag. Being beat up is it's reason for existing. And, if I recall correctly, it actually loves it. There's no reason for it to start fighting back against the people previously beating it up. There's also the issue of how it would fight and move, considering it's a bag.

Then there's the issue of representation. If Sandbag were in, he would be representing the Smash series itself. I don't think that in itself is an issue, considering the Smash series is a big Nintendo thing now. The existence of this forum is proof of that. But why would it be Sandbag? If we were going to get a Smash rep, the obvious choice for the role is Master Hand, the one original Smash character who's been there since the beginning, is responsible for the events of the game, and is an icon of the series. Sandbag appeared in a minigame in two games, and as an item in one. How is it a better representative of the Smash series then Master Hand?

So, because of those reasons, I think Sandbag just flat out won't happen. It's not a fighter, is not meant to be a fighter, has pretty much no abilities to be a fighter, and has no reason to be added over other characters from his series, if a character from that series is added at all.

Want: 0%

Why would I want to play as an object I've been beating up for years over an all-star from another popular video game?
 

colder_than_ice

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I'm going to attempt to compile a list of all characters we've rated based on their want scores. I'm going to try to have it completed by later today or tomorrow. Wish me luck.
 

woopyfrood

Smash Lord
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Apr 23, 2008
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Sandbag Chance: 5%

Just crazy enough to be possible. Sakurai is one wily fool. However, creating specials for him would be difficult, and he's really more likely to remain an item.

Sandbag Want: 80%

It would be glorious. Also, since he's so simplistic, I doubt his development time would snub other more deserving characters.

Nominations: Giovanni x5
 

Keto

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Messages
270
Alexandra chance: 2%
Alexandra want: 10%

Sandbag chance: 50% It's funny to me that a lot of you think that we nominated Sandbag as a troll vote. That is not the case. Sandbag is as much part of the franchise as any other character and I would like to see him become playable so long as characters like Ridley and King K. Rool get in. But if Sandbag gets in before characters like Bandana Dee I will laugh. I wrote why I wanted Sandbag the first time we voted for him because I was the one who voted for him 6 months ago... wow time flies.

Sandbag want: 100%

Bandana Dee x5
 
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andimidna

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Uh-oh, Bidoof called his back-up!
Sandbag chance: 50%


Who came up with this idea of Sandbag playable anyways?
Sandbag is definitely less likely than Balloon Fighter, Toad, and Tom Nook.
If we're going to get a Smash series character, I'd prefer one with feet, maybe even a mouth, sometimes some arms if I'm feeling picky. I mean, Tabuu has like a 0.2% chance, but everybody else? C'mon...
 
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Mega Bidoof

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Alexandra chance: 2%
Alexandra want: 10%

Sandbag chance: 50% It's funny to me that a lot of you think that we nominated Sandbag as a troll vote. That is not the case. Sandbag is as much part of the franchise as any other character and I would like to see him become playable so long as characters like Ridley and King K. Rool get in. But if Sandbag gets in before characters like Bandana Dee I will laugh. I wrote why I wanted Sandbag the first time we voted for him because I was the one who voted for him 6 months ago... wow time flies.

Sandbag want: 100%

Bandana Dee x5
Great to know we have people like you, bringing the score up for Sandy.
Keep it up!

Uh-oh, Bidoof called his back-up!



Who came up with this idea anyways?
Sandbag is definitely less likely than Balloon Fighter, Toad, and Tom Nook.
Shut up!
Sandy is awesome!
He will kill all of you!
With his bare......... SAND!!!

 
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Glaciacott

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so a little break from the vacation and ...
are you serious?

ok, screw roivas, don't care. Abstain.

but lord
Sandbag 0%
both chance and want

An let me say something here. I understand bidoof rates all absurd possibilities super high. I am ok with bluepikmin being the weird one here and pulling for a bunch of unlikelies because they are characters that even as retros and impossibilities, merit in some way some thought. Even if we don't all here understand that way.
But to come here and see that Sandbag has not only one but TWO ratings higher thatn 25%, then I'm sorry because we're talking of having such poor knowledge of statistics and humility that you're disrespecting this game and everyone here who participates in thisdday in and day out
In your rush to pull for the stupidest, most random garbage because "lol sakurai is random" you are making a mockery of the good honor Groose and other thread handlers place in you to NOT be biased in chance ratings and leave it in want ratings. In your rush to that one person who can call being right if the inevitable happens, you insult the people that actually spend time in their day to consider the most objective view possible to make sure we have proper data for posterity.

Seriously, I am not ok with this. As someone devoted to this thread and with huge respect for the people in it, I ask that anything as statistically stupidly high as 30 or 50 be ignored. It has no place outside of want especially when even if it made it in it'd be a WTF character. Those characters aren't as likely as getting one of two results on a coin toss.
And really, if this is allowed, I'll be seriously annoyed, because then i might as well just go to 0% or 100% because "you guys I'm so sure that ALL LOGIC" be damned.

Sorry for the rant. No predictions or nominations from me tonight.
 

Toxicroaker

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 16, 2013
Messages
1,278
Location
Everywhere
3DS FC
4184-2367-6702
Alexandra chance: 2%
Alexandra want: 10%

Sandbag chance: 50% It's funny to me that a lot of you think that we nominated Sandbag as a troll vote. That is not the case. Sandbag is as much part of the franchise as any other character and I would like to see him become playable so long as characters like Ridley and King K. Rool get in. But if Sandbag gets in before characters like Bandana Dee I will laugh. I wrote why I wanted Sandbag the first time we voted for him because I was the one who voted for him 6 months ago... wow time flies.

Sandbag want: 100%

Bandana Dee x5
How big do you think this roster is? If sandbag gets in before bandana dee, shulk, isaac, king k. rool, dixie kong, bowser jr. ghirahim, toon zelda, sakurai's mother, mewtwo, zoroark, pichu, paper mario, chibi robo, chrom, lucina, robin, anna, dillon, takamaru, or anyone else with that kind of support or popularity, I will cry myself to sleep.
 

andimidna

Smash Master
Joined
Dec 22, 2013
Messages
3,330
Location
Gusty garden galaxy
Shut up!
Sandy is awesome!
He will kill all of you!
With his bare......... SAND!!!

If Sandbag gets confirmed... *shivers*... just think of the characters that would get requested as a result of it:
- Mr. Saturn
- Primid
- Shellpod
- Jyk
- Electrode
- Goomba
- Goomy
- Metapod
- Magikarp
- Smash Ball
- Homerun Bat
- Beam Sword
- Panini
- Baseball
- Crazy Hand
- Statue of Palutena
- Luigi's Nose
- Daisy's Third Eye
- Toon Octorok
- Wii remote

Trust me, they'd all happen.
 
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