Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Chandeelure]

Okay, here are the new Chance and Want Charts without Little Mac.

Chance 10

Want 10

x3 Bandana Waddle Dee re-vote

 

[BluePikmin11]

Let's make the Bandanna Dee ratings honest and logical please when we get to his day.

 

[Deleted member]

Let's make the Bandanna Dee ratings honest and logical please when we get to his day.

I opt to never rate Bandana Dee in this thread ever again. He should be banned from nominating in general.

EDIT: Actually, I say that we bar him from the nominations until E3 has come and gone. Seriously, his days are the absolute worst. I was looking forward to Cranky Kong's day… but then Bandana Dee got rated. >_>

Sorry for the Bandana Dee talk, Groose. I didn't expect this to happen at all…

 

[FalKoopa]

View attachment 10490

I don't really see the need to celebrate. His chances are still the same, whether he's in the Top 10 or not.

 

[YoshiandToad]

I opt to never rate Bandana Dee in this thread ever again. He should be banned from nominating in general.

I agree. He should be Bandanned from a fourth rating. At least until we get Meta Knight revealed.

 

[Chandeelure]

Let's make the Bandanna Dee ratings honest and logical please when we get to his day.

Logical like your Kawashima, Pikmin 3 Trio, Nintendog, Daitoryo and Prince Sable ratings?
OK

I don't really see the need to celebrate. His chances are still the same, whether he's in the Top 10 or not.

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

I don't really see the need for a Bandana rerate. iirc, besides the outlying high and low ratings, most were around the 35-40% range which is where he already is. And we haven't had any major developments to really change much about his chances.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Logical like your Kawashima, Pikmin 3 Trio, Nintendog, Daitoryo and Prince Sable ratings?
OK

They plausible logical choices and are not minor characters like Gooey or Goomba.

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

ABCs: Double 0s%
NonChar: 20%
Want: 10%
Alexandra: 1.23%
Sandbag: 0.43%

Our Savior Helix x 5

A bit of an edit here Groose.

As knowing that Hanafuda could be even as simple as a sticker, 30% chance, 50% want.

And I realize I might be putting us through hell with this renomination. But my thoughts have changed drastically on this entire franchise. I thought this character was somewhat overrated when I put his chance higher. But now, I'll nominate Robin x 5.

 

[Chandeelure]

They plausible logical choices and are not minor characters like Gooey or Goomba.

Too bad I'm supporting Bandana Dee, not Gooey or Goomba

 

[KingofPhantoms]

I don't think we should re-rate Bandana Dee again unless something that could potentially affect his chances significantly comes up.

 

[andimidna]

The only reason I'd nominate a character that doesn't "need" a re-rate is because I wasn't here for there rating. I only started coming to this thread like a week ago.

And honestly, Bandana Dee got very overrated. After getting the other 2 main characters of Kirby both in the last installment, considering how Sakurai is usually more modest about his own series... I think we'll get Palutena and nobody else from Kid Icarus or Kirby. I don't see Kirby being equal to Zelda except for when they both had only 1. It took Sakurai a long time to finally add all of the main 3, and this character is only popular with a select few on SmashBoards, and basically nowhere else. Definitely not a character that comes up on Miiverse often. And I don't see a spear being extremely unique from a sword. How did you guys on here all randomly fall in love with him? I thought it was a joke at first... But you guys all really love him. Honestly I'd say his chances should be slightly over Impa's.
Getting a Kirby newcomer just seems so unlikely... The only reason to consider him is that he's the obvious 4th choice for Kirby.

Please dont hate me Chandelure

Also, what's so terrible about rating him? What happened last time?

 

[FalKoopa]

Also, what's so terrible about rating him? What happened last time?

Well, he has already been rated 3 times, and people are bored of rating him.

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

The only reason I'd nominate a character that doesn't "need" a re-rate is because I wasn't here for there rating. I only started coming to this thread like a week ago.

And honestly, Bandana Dee got very overrated. After getting the other 2 main characters of Kirby both in the last installment, considering how Sakurai is usually more modest about his own series... I think we'll get Palutena and nobody else from Kid Icarus or Kirby. I don't see Kirby being equal to Zelda except for when they both had only 1. It took Sakurai a long time to finally add all of the main 3, and this character is only popular with a select few on SmashBoards, and basically nowhere else. Definitely not a character that comes up on Miiverse often. And I don't see a spear being extremely unique from a sword. How did you guys on here all randomly fall in love with him? I thought it was a joke at first... But you guys all really love him. Honestly I'd say his chances should be slightly over Impa's.
Getting a Kirby newcomer just seems so unlikely... The only reason to consider him is that he's the obvious 4th choice for Kirby.

Please dont hate me Chandelure

Also, what's so terrible about rating him? What happened last time?

There were 5s and 1s on one side, and 90s on another,

 

[KingofPhantoms]

I didn't pay much attention to Bandana Dee ratings on the second time he was rated, nor do I remember many posts from his first rating, and I wasn't ever around for his third time.

So if things went pretty nasty those days, I don't really know how bad they were.

couldn't possibly have been any worse than the day Impa got rated though

 

[andimidna]

There were 5s and 1s on one side, and 90s on another,

For chance or for want?!?

 

[UltimateWario]

For chance or for want?!?

Likely chance. Some people think that he's a shoo-in because he's the next Kirby rep, while others think that Kirby is by no stretch about to get another rep, anyway.

I'm of the latter camp.

 

[colder_than_ice]

As knowing that Hanafuda could be even as simple as a sticker, 30% chance, 50% want.

Has it been confirmed that we're actually getting stickers this time around? I sure hope not.

 

[YoshiandToad]

They plausible logical choices and are not minor characters like Gooey or Goomba.

I feel like this was aimed at Bandana Dee and Toad supporters. I hope I'm wrong and you're not hurting my feels Blue. You used to be cool braw.

 

[Deleted member]

Also, what's so terrible about rating him? What happened last time?

There were some flame wars between Bandana Dee supporters and doubters.
Look at the Directory and check out his days; they were horrible. That is the main reason why I don't want to rerate him; it makes this entire thread and game un-fun for me.

I will agree that he is overrated. Rethinking things, I would give him a 30% chance. However, re-rating him isn't worth the madness.

Well, he has already been rated 3 times, and people are bored of rating him.

That too. I'm honestly getting tired of hearing of him and rating him in this thread.

Likely chance. Some people think that he's a shoo-in because he's the next Kirby rep, while others think that Kirby is by no stretch about to get another rep, anyway.

He is a shoo-in as the next Kirby rep. However, it isn't guaranteed that we will get one.

 

[Groose]

Working on bringing this day to a close. I think I'm going to switch my updates to this time of the day from now on.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I feel like this was aimed at Bandana Dee and Toad supporters. I hope I'm wrong and you're not hurting my feels Blue. You used to be cool braw.

Wat, I'm not doing furting anyone here. D:
Bandanna Dee is definitely not a minor character and is as plausible as the characters in my sig. (Except Richard)

 

[YoshiandToad]

Wat, I'm not doing furting anyone here. D:
Bandanna Dee is definitely not a minor character and is as plausible as the characters in my sig. (Except Richard)

(I know man, I was just joshing; it's a stab at people comparing Toad to Goomba and Bandana Dee to Gooey which happens more than you think)

Working on bringing this day to a close. I think I'm going to switch my updates to this time of the day from now on.

Works for me. I'm on good old British GMT time...maybe I won't have to rate at work now!

 

[andimidna]

Kamek is the shoo-in Yoshi rep, Samurai Goroh is the shoo-in FZero rep. King Hippo is the shoo-in Punch Out rep. Tempo is the shoo-in Harmoknight rep. Yet all are unlikely to receive one/another rep, so they aren't very high.
Being the next logical Kirby rep definitely does not give a 90% chance.
It is more likely than not Dedede will go unchanged and he will not be playable... The highest chance should have been 49%
And since he is a possibility, there should be no 0s either.

 

[Starcutter]

inb4 we just rate Isaac higher than bandana dee instead of rating Bandana Dee lower.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Samurai Goroh is the shoo-in FZero rep.

Black Shadow says hi!

 

[YoshiandToad]

King Hippo is the shoo-in Punch Out rep.

Aww, really? RIP Doc Louis.

 

[andimidna]

Black Shadow says hi!

Since he's not more iconic, requested, or unique... He wouldn't get in over the one who was actually chosen to be an assist for Brawl.

I've seen people say Ganondorf should get a new moveset and he should take his old one over, but that takes away the point and only adds more problems. I see it as the only possibility he'd get in over Goroh, and it is possible, but c'mon... That would suck. Why change Captain Falcon #2 to a newcomer that would rob a slot? If its a last minute thing, that's fine, but as a per-planned 3rd clone of Captain Falcon? No thanks.

Aww, really? RIP Doc Louis.

He's deconfirmed... Right?

 

[Cheezey Bites]

He is more requested in Japan (significantly so, probably outstripping the western Goroh requests), and he is actually more iconic thanks to the anime. He also wins out in uniqueness if you actually gave him a moveset based on all the control magic he can do, though admittedly that is less likely than a Falcon based moveset which would also be reasonably fitting.

 

[FalKoopa]

He's deconfirmed... Right?

I suppose so. Did we ever rate him?

 

[Deleted member]

I suppose so. Did we ever rate him?

Nope. The only Punch Out!! character that we ever rated was Little Mac. We never even rated King Hippo or Mr. Sandman.

 

[Groose]

EDIT: DAMN IT, Who placed Toon Zelda above Bandana Dee in the results section? :/ Brb editing again.

That'd be me, pal. Rough weekend, and I didn't finish updating things.

I agree. He should be Bandanned from a fourth rating. At least until we get Meta Knight revealed.

Sorry, but I can't do that. If enough people show interest as to nominate him to the top, then we must rerate him again. I'll just hand the day off to Hades; he's generally better at keeping things orderly than I am.

Has it been confirmed that we're actually getting stickers this time around? I sure hope not.

No mention of stickers. Trophies are back on both systems, though.

I hate tag-teams and shoving two (or more) characters into a single slot. Either make them separate characters or don't make them at all.

Do you differ on tag-teams like the Ice Climbers? Personally, I'm not the biggest fan of tag-teams either (they're tolerable, but I'd rather have the characters individually), but I have to love the Ice Climbers because they're just kinda perfect as a duo.

Since he's not more iconic, requested, or unique... He wouldn't get in over the one who was actually chosen to be an assist for Brawl.

Black Shadow is actually a Top-10 Request of any character in Japan. His role as the primary antagonist of the F-Zero anime and his excellent voice actor (think Hades from Uprising good) have won him many fans over there. I used to have Goroh above him, but now I'd say they're pretty neck-and-neck.

I suppose so. Did we ever rate him?

Who?


Pikmin Trio Chance: 0%
Zero. That's right. I'd be flabbergasted if this happened, and I'd be perfectly willing to eat total crow if it did. Let's go over how such a thing would work, right?
1)The trio switches out Pokemon Trainer or Zelda/Sheik style, and each character uses Pikmin. Tell me: how would this be unique? Pokemon Trainer is unique because he combines three unique, completely different Pokemon into one entity. This would produce three Pikmin-using characters... it'd be hard to drastically differentiate them. You'd be able to mix in a few different moves and have them in different weight and power classes, but you'd be left with three similar characters who'd be similar to not only each other, but also to Captain Olimar. There isn't much uniqueness here, and since uniqueness is the only reason for using the incredible amount of resources to create this... it's not going to happen.

2) The trio fight like the Ice Climbers in that they're all out there, but they also use Pikmin. So we not only have three AI controlled characters, but also a handful of Pikmin (at least three, probably) out there as well? Heck, I think that alone would crash the 3DS and having matches with multiple of this trio in at once would probably crash the Wii U, too. Not feasible from a technological standpoint.

3) The trio fight like the Ice Climbers in that they're all out there, and they do not use Pikmin. This one is pushing the boundaries of the technology as well, but I'll be willing to concede that it could be possible with more effort than any other character we know about. However, I highly doubt this would happen. Why would they neglect to use Pikmin? And would they really be interesting enough to warrant it? I don't see this happening at all, either.

Pikmin Trio Want: 0%
I don't have much interest in any of the potential Pikmin newcomers, and I'd certainly not want this one; I'm afraid that unless it wowed me, I'd kind of have to deem it a waste of resources.

Hanafuda Representation Chance: 50%
I could see it happening; I could see it not happening. A trophy/sticker seems most likely, but I could see an item, too.

Hanafuda Representation Want: Abstain
Since I almost definitely see this as a trophy/sticker, and I don't really care which ones of those we get (I'll religiously read them all and enjoy it for hours, but I have no preference on what gets a trophy), I can't rate this.

Dillon x5
This game ain't big enough for that high score, Ranger.

DAY OVER

PIKMIN TRIO DECONFIRMED FOR "TOO SMALL"
...but really, the Olimar is too small days were the best.​

 

[andimidna]

He is more requested in Japan (significantly so, probably outstripping the western Goroh requests), and he is actually more iconic thanks to the anime. He also wins out in uniqueness if you actually gave him a moveset based on all the control magic he can do, though admittedly that is less likely than a Falcon based moveset which would also be reasonably fitting.

Alright. I'll consider them equals.

But I still think if a 2nd Punch Out rep were to be added in SSB5, which I still doubt unless it gets 1 or more new games, it'd be King Hippo. He may have less game appearances, but due to Captain Rainbow and Punch Out Wii, he's iconic. So I do think he'll be the Punch Out assist in SSBWiiU3ds. And, due to doing the same thing, I'd imagine it would stay that way in future games.

But who knows? New games change old ideas. In August, it wasn't very often that you'd see Rosalina or Cranky Kong on a roster...
So... same things could happen for other series.

...but really, the Olimar is too small days were the best.​

I didn't even know toosmallots existed

 

[Groose]

Alph, Brittany, and Charlie Trio (Pikmin)
2.58% chance
15.64% want
Three times the characters doesn't always equal three times the success, and that was made clear through today's game. This trio did manage to put up a fight (which is more than Adam did yesterday), but surely it was proportional to their size.

Non-Character Hanafuda Representation
27.84% chance
62.17% want
It was a popular idea, but not one considered the most likely.

Today we're rating Alexandra Roivas of the Eternal Darkness series. I've been remiss in my research, and I still can't provide an intro for her. Please understand--I will try to do better next time. In the meantime, I'd like to present our next character directly to you. We are rating Sandbag. Feel free to beat him up, ladies and gentlemen--his trophy says he loves it. I wish Hades were available today... I really don't want to deal with this again.

Tomorrow we have two interesting ratings: Shantae from the esteemed company Way Forward and the concept of Unlockable Newcomers. Predict away!

NOTE: I think I'll be revising the Projected Update Schedule to reflect 5PM EST updates from here on out.

 

[Deleted member]

We might start new days at 5 PM? That perfect for me!
Alexandra Roivas and Sandbag have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated Sandbag before, check to see what you said on his day!

Alexandra Roivas
Chance: 0%
She comes from a niche series… a very niche series. One that Nintendo has seemed to forgotten about. I can't see her get added as a playable character, especially when she has zero demand.
Want: 0%
Nah.

Sandbag

Sandbag Prediction: 1% - RTC's first troll character day returns!!

Looks like someone forgot about Owain. (I wish I was around for that day…)
Chance: 0%

Want: 0%

Yup. That's my rating for Sandbag.

Shantae Prediction: .42%
I see some kindness to come her way.
Unlockable Newcomers Prediction: 99.50%
I really dunno.

Nominations: Captain Rainbow 5x

 

[FalKoopa]

Do you differ on tag-teams like the Ice Climbers? Personally, I'm not the biggest fan of tag-teams either (they're tolerable, but I'd rather have the characters individually), but I have to love the Ice Climbers because they're just kinda perfect as a duo.

I'm in the same boat as you. The Ice Climbers work as a tag team because of their cartoon-ish appearance and that they are both exactly the same in terms of abilities.

Other duos like Chrom/Robin or Chrom/Lucina don't fly with me because the characters are quite different in their abilities, so they can't function as a duo.

The only other duo that could work was Diddy/Dixie, because they have a similar cartoon-ish appearance and their abilities are reasonably similar, though I'd prefer that they play up their differences by making Dixie a semi-clone.

As for the Pikmin trio.... heck, I'm having a hard time imagining even their tilts and aerials.

I'll give my ratings tomorrow.

 

[andimidna]

Alexandra:
Chance: 7%
She won't get in over the main characters of other un-repped series
Want: hmm...

This is her?
She looks cool.
I'd play as that. I guess I'd want her in more than not, but not by much... so 60%
Sandbag:
Chance: 0%
Pretty much deconfirmed in Little Mac's trailer. And had no chance before that.
Want: 0%
Nope.
Shantae- 3.3%
Unlockable Newcomers- 96.11%
Newcomers being unlockable? Seems like a given. Just as it was in every game... yes.
x3 Fyer&Falbi Duo
x2 Paper Mario

 

[colder_than_ice]

Alexandra
Chance: 0% - She's from a game developed by a Canadian video game company that was published by Nintendo, a company that now makes mostly X-Box games. She barely counts as second party. We don't even know if Nintendo has the rights to use her. She's also nearly unheard of in Japan.
Want: 59% - Eternal Darkness is one of those games that I really wish I'd gotten the chance to play.

Sandbag
Chance: 0% - It wouldn't work out.
Want: 30% - I like him better as an Item.

Shantae prediction: 2.2%

Unlockable newcomers: 97% (It has only happened in almost every single fighting game sequel ever made in the history of video games after all)

Nominations: <10% character becomes playable. x5

 

[Smasher 101]

@Rockaphin wins extra nominations for the Pikmin Three, and @Wariofan1 wins for Hanafuda.

 

[Karafuru]

Alexandra:
-Abstain.
I fear my ignorance on the topic, so I shall be abstaining.

Sandbag
-Chance: 0.5%
It has too many things going against it and the only novelty it has is being a joke character.
-Want: 0%
I am not too fond of joke characters, so no thanks...

Predictions:
-Shantae: 2.4%
-Unlockable Newcomers: 95% (Why was this even in question?)

Nomination: 5x Jack Frost (SMT)