Leaving the debate for the bottom...
Pikmin Trio
Why would they do this, exactly? Not particularly wanted, Pikmin is barely a big enough series to get two reps, much less essentially four movesets. Pikmin's characters are also too similar, another reason not to bother.
Way too much work for very little payoff in this case, I'm afraid.
Pikmin Trio Chances: 0.07%
Pikmin Trio Want: 0%
Non-playable Hanafuda representation
I have to think that non-playable Hanafuda representation is practically guaranteed if a playable Hanafuda rep gets in. So I'm surprised that @
Pacack
rated it so low. Have you soured on Daitoryo's chances?
Anyway, this seems like a pretty easy thing to represent. It's perfect for stickers, if they return. As a trophy, they could try to make a 3-D render of Daitoryo or something, but it would also be extremely easy to make two-dimensional card(s) as a trophy. Representation in a stage or item form is also possible, but less likely.
Chances are hurt by hanafuda being obscure in the West, and by not being related to video games per se.
Non-playable hanafuda representation chances: 25%
It's really easy to include in some form, and it's an important part of Nintendo history. If stickers are confirmed to return, then the chances are boosted. The same thing could've been said for Melee and Brawl, however.
hanafuda representation want: 50%
I'm indifferent.
Predictions:
Alexandra Roivas - 1%
I dunno, someone's going to give her a non-negligible score. As much as I like Eternal Darkness, the fact is that I would be pleasantly surprised to see any reference to the game at all.
Sandbag - 0.5%
Maybe the game has died down and gotten a little more serious since before...
Nominations:
5x Paper Mario
Let's put it this way, Yoshi wasn't revealed for Yoshi's New Island. Does that make him less likely to return. Nope.
Is ANYBODY doubting YOSHI? Nope.
Irrelevant. Three-time veterans with as much importance as Yoshi are not comparable to newcomers. And at any rate, the game is not out in Japan yet.
I'm sure Sakurai uses complicated, fancy math equations to choose characters/reveals...
Yeah, all that complicated, fancy... basic algebra with the four basic operators
That kind of math is not intimidating, I was doing that in 5th grade. This was just basically to formally explain what I was saying with words, which apparently wasn't getting through.
Anyway, I was talking about probabilities, not talking about Sakurai's decision making process.
You can use whatever reasoning you like to say what you think the values of X, B and D are in those equations I gave, but if you think that X and D are greater than zero, then the passing of TF's release hurts Dixie's chances. Period.
The same guy we all call an unpredictable troll... c'mon, seriously?
You might. I don't.
Does a newcomer not being revealed for A Link Between Worlds hurt the chances of a Zelda newcomer?
Since the characters that are considered viable Zelda newcomers did not appear in A Link Between Worlds, it's not as important.
Meanwhile, Hyrule Warriors will be coming out as well, as Groose pointed out, and will likely have a large cast of playable characters, most of whom will be playable for the first time, and probably some returning villains. This will create opportunities for revealing Ghirahim or Impa or Vaati, or whoever, should they appear in the game. If Ganondorf is not revealed by the release date, then yes, I would think a Zelda newcomer is less likely.
Dixie can still be an unlockable and Tropical Freeze already had Donkey Kong and Diddy Kong promoting it. I don't mean to sound harsh but I can't help but feel this whole "Dixie wasn't in the direct" argument is just a very contrived excuse to divert attention from the more serious issue: King K. Rool wasn't even in the game.
I acknowledged that when we re-rated K Rool.
In fact, what I said was that I think both Dixie AND K Rool were harmed by Tropical Freeze's release. Dixie because she wasn't revealed in February, and K Rool because he wasn't in the game at all. I think K Rool is still important, has enough fan demand and would be unique enough and I had been rating him on the assumption that there was a low chance that he would be TF - since I had already baked in the low likelihood of him being in TF, I only lowered his score a little bit.
All I'm saying is that it hurts Dixie's chances. I never did say by how much, and people are jumping down my throat like I'm saying she's disconfirmed.
This:
This is the same sort of thing as on the SM3DW picture on the Japan release of it.
It got referenced and there was no reveal, I saw people on Miiverse saying Rosalina was deconfirmed. Ugh.
is irrelevant to what I'm saying, because I've said nothing of the sort. Dixie is still very much possible, and is still one of the more likely newcomers. It's also the case that I consider her less likely than I did in December.