Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Sabrewulf238]

Sheriff:
Chance - 2%

It isn't impossible but I feel like there would be other retro characters that would get in before him, like Takamaru or Lip.

Want - 0%

I have absolutely, positively no interest in Sheriff.

------------------------
Shulk:
Chance - 76%

I feel like Shulk has a great chance, he's widely requested, Sakurai is very much aware if him, has great moveset potential and comes from a critically and commercially (well in terms of produced copies at least) acclaimed game. The ball is really in Sakurai's court on this one. It's not a sure thing by any means, but then I think Little Mac was the only one anywhere close to being a certainty.

Want - 100%

My feelings summed up in three words: Gimmie Gimmie Gimmie

 

[Toxicroaker]

Sheriff: 5%
Want: 50%

Shulk: 35%
Want: 0%

Adam Malkovich: 0.99%
Two DK Characters: 55%

x5 Toon Zelda/Sheik

 

[PK_Wonder]

Sheriff - 2.5%
Shulk - 75%

predict:
Adam - 0.6%
Two DK newcomers - 33.33%

Flynn x5

 

[Cpt.]

Balloon Fighter
Chance: 10%
Want: 0%

Gangplank Galleon
Chance: 25%
Want: 25%

Reppin King Boo x5

 

[Smady]

Sheriff

5% Chance: Retros tend to be fairly random, but Sheriff has a decent shot as a western-styled character who can use an assortment of whips, revolvers or what-not. It's not a particularly well known game or one that has tonnes of potential for an interesting set, though, I can see another retro getting in who fits those parameters. Duck Hunt Dog for example, or Mach Rider.

30% Want: A decent retro character, but not one of the best. His potential for a good set is limited enough I don't want him if it means blocking another retro and I have no affinity whatsoever for his game.

Shulk

70% Chance: A popular and very, very conveniently timed game to be represented in this game. It's not too old or too recent, it falls right in the comfort zone where Sakurai has to know of the game and that it has a sequel in development for the Wii U that also uses the character of Shulk. Xenoblade and its developer are being pushed by Nintendo as their go-to serious role-playing game team on consoles.

The monado is not the most exciting weapon ever made, but gives more than enough stuff for Sakurai to utilize in crafting a cool moveset. The game world in Xenoblade Chronicles is insanely rich, you can make a thousand stages, trophies and stickers out of its huge mass of content. To preclude that avalanche of potential for Smash Bros, you need a newcomer and Shulk is the number one candidate.

65% Want: He's far from the best playable character in that game, I know that as someone who hasn't played far into the game. He's a fairly stock protagonist for the most part, but that doesn't make him any less of a perfect candidate to rep the game. He is the most logical choice for wielding the monado which is pivotal in the plot and story. His abilities are enough for a great moveset.

Shulk's just not that interesting of a personality for me to really get behind the idea all that strongly, but I'd still be pretty happy if he got in because it's pretty much a requirement before Sakurai can 'make it rain' with other parts of Xenoblade's world. I'd be hyped to see who the second or third reps are for the series, this is simply a good start. I also don't expect a second or third rep until at earliest Smash 5.

Adam Malkovich Prediction: 3%
Too many Ridley fans for this antithetical, jokey character to do good.
DK Newcomers x2 Prediction: 45%
It can't be higher than Dixie or K. Rool's individual rankings, but they are both popular, so it'll be fairly high.

Arino (Retro Game Master) x5

 

[Deleted member]

Well if Shulk continues doing so well, he may rise up to 3rd in likelihood and 1st in want. That would surely be interesting. I had always wondered why he was in neither top 5.

Hmm… I dunno if Shulk will reach 3rd place in chance. Want though… it's certainly possible he could reach top 5. I highly doubt that any character could surpass King K. Rool in want (even Ridley).
The reason why he isn't top 5 is chance is probably because of either some pessimism or doubt. I know that some people think that Isaac and Saki are competing with each other (for some ungodly reason).
However, he does have amazing chances as there is a lot going for him and there is a ton of evidence to support his inclusion. He's definitely not a shoo-in, but he is definitely an extremely likely candidate.

Shulk:
I don't get all the love for this nobody. Whatever moveset you could make for him would just as easily go well with a Fire Emblem rep, and that series deserves it more. Chance: 50%. Want: 0%.

Spoiler

I'm… not gonna even…

Balloon Fighter
Chance: 10%
Want: 0%

Gangplank Galleon
Chance: 25%
Want: 25%

Reppin King Boo x5

We're done rating Balloon Fighter and Gangplank Galleon.
We are now rating Sheriff and Shulk.

 

[Aqua Rock X]

SHERIFF

Chance: 0.9% - Out prioritized retro.

Want: 0% - Lip or Takamaru.

SHULK

Chance 75% - Again I have the feeling he'll be in this.

Want: 90% - Yes!!!

Adam Malkovich Prediction: 0.5% - I'm not authorized to give a response...

DK Newcomer x2 Prediction: 40% - Decent chance.

Nominations:
Other M Ridley x5

 

[FalKoopa]

Sheriff:
Likelihood: 1%
Not impossible, but he's far from the top pick for a Retro.

Want: 0%
Wild Gunman is essentially Sheriff+ in what he can do.

Shulk:
Likelihood: 59%
A great chance, in all honesty. X is related to Xenoblade, atleast when it comes to gameplay.

Want: 50%
Indifferent.

Adam prediction: 0.9%
Two DK Newcomers: 37%

Wild Gunman x 5

 

[Smasher 101]

Sheriff's chances: 1% - Not likely.
Want: 0% - Not interested

Shulk's chances: 70% - Still likely.
Want: 30% - Still meh.

Adam prediction: 0.86% - Won't do well.
Two DK Newcomers prediction: 37.69% - Less than before.

Zoroark x5

 

[Kenith]

Sheriff:
Chance: 1%. Not really much to say here. He's from a really old game, and as such, his potential as a fighter is extremely limited. And there's many more ideal retros out there.
Want: 1%. Not before my Mach Rider.

Chance: 60%. Shulk's game is seemingly becoming quite popular with RPG fans, but I fear that he will become the new Isaac.
That said, he has unique properties he could bring to the game, so that might make him more viable.
Want: 20%. Not really interested, but would be happy to see everyone's reaction.

Adam Prediction: 1%.
Two DK Newcomers Prediction: 25%.

Nominations: World Bowser Stage x5.

 

[Keto]

Sheriff Chance & Want: 1% No comment.

Shulk Chance: 65% He has a lot going for him.
Shulk Want: 90%

Adam: 2%
Two DK Newcomers: 28%

Sandbag x5

 

[loganhogan]

Sheriff
Chance 25% He's their oldest character but his game wasn't much of a success. His shock value is very high though and going by rob, ice climbers, and game & watch characters like him don't need popularity on their side.
want 10%

Shulk
Chance 50% He's requested and popular but he only has one game although it's getting a sequel so at least soon it could turn into a series. However i'm placing him right in the middle because I fear he can easily be dismissed as an AT like others before him.
Want 75%

Adam 1.65%
2 DK newcomers 19%

x3 Dr. Lobe
x2 Tiki

 

[andimidna]

Sheriff:
Likelihood: 1%
Not impossible, but he's far from the top pick for a Retro.

Want: 0%
Wild Gunman is essentially Sheriff+ in what he can do.

Shulk:
Likelihood: 59%
A great chance, in all honesty. X is related to Xenoblade, atleast when it comes to gameplay.

Want: 50%
Indifferent.

Adam prediction: 0.9%
Two DK Newcomers: 37%

Wild Gunman x 5

Are you in charge of the OP while Groose is gone?
Just asking because-

Balloon Fighter
Chance: 10%
Want: 0%

Gangplank Galleon
Chance: 25%
Want: 25%

Reppin King Boo x5

-happened, because of the thread title.

 

[Groose]

The day of Sheriff/Shulk will end in approximately two hours. I'm updating the OP to reflect the last week or so, then I'll get to tallying scores. Get them in!

 

[Gunla]

The day of Sheriff/Shulk will end in approximately two hours. I'm updating the OP to reflect the last week or so, then I'll get to tallying scores. Get them in!

Welcome back, Based Groose! I started up yet another new nomination, Jack Frost!

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Sherrif Chance: 4%
Want:50%

Shulk Chance: 60%, whilst by no mean a shoo-in character, he still has a pretty impressive summary.
Want:50%

 

[AustarusIV]

Sheriff
Chance: 20%
Sakurai sure does love to go for the unorthodox, retro characters for Smash, but I don't think even Sheriff would have much of a chance of getting in.

Want: 0%
I don't really care for him.

Shulk
Chance: 65%
Japan seems to love him, and his game was one of the biggest successes for the RPG genre in years. At the very least, he could be an Assist Trophy.

Want: 25%
I never played his game, nor did I even get to look at any footage of Xenoblade. But I would still be happy for his fans if he did get in.

Predict
Adam: 0.60%
I'm gonna look forward to decapitating this a-hole.

2 DK Newcomers: 18%

 

[YoshiandToad]

Sheriff:
Chance: 1%
Too unknown. Uses guns. Like ones that shoot bullets. manages to have a more basic design than even Game and Watch.

Want: 0%
No thank you. There's plenty of better retros out there.

Shulk:
Chance: 65%
One of the few newcomers Japan wanted. We got Little Mac, it's only fair really.

Want: 50%Like many other popular newcomers, I don't really care one way or the other with him. Having never played Xenoblade doesn't help towards that indifference.

Predictions:
Adam: 0.21%
Okay so...Ridley first. Then there's also Dark Samus, and even Anthony Higgins is more popular than Adam...and they're all more interesting too than Samus' relatively dull dead love interest.

2 DK newcomers: 20%
I have no idea. On the one hand everyone wants at least one and DK could easily deserve more than just one...on the other spaces are more limited this time round soooo...

Nominations:
5 X RTC Top 10 AT

 

[andimidna]

Wow, so many people voted 60%, 65%, and a 75% chance for Shulk.
So far he has a 65.11% chance average :3

 

[Deleted member]

Wow, so many people voted 60%, 65%, and a 75% chance for Shulk.
So far he has a 65.11% chance average :3

I have been calculating his current scores so far. His chance is at 64.75% and want is at 66.44%.

 

[andimidna]

I have been calculating his current scores so far. His chance is at 64.75% and want is at 66.44%.

Really?
I just got 65.11% chance and 65.86% want...
He seems to be a pretty consistent character, he even has the exact same placement on both want and chance charts, that's pretty neat.
It looks like he might be moving to #5 in want, just beating Dixie Kong.
And it looks like he might go down in want a percent or 2 because of that one guy that joined SmashBoards just to hate on Shulk, it's literally his only post, seriously. If it wasn't for him, his want score would currently be 68.3%

Sheriff:
I've recently come into liking the idea of Sheriff.
I hadn't realized the retros in Melee and Brawl included one popular and one historical.
Takamaru is definitely the popular pick, with Lip as the runner-up.
But for historical, I think the only real choices left are Sheriff and Daitoryo.
I like the idea of both, and even though Daitoryo is more "retro Nintendo" than anybody, it's less likely, and very much "out there"
Recently, I've started supporting both.
I'd say his chances are actually around 40%, it is more likely that he won't be added, but he could be. With retros it's somewhat of a toss-up.
If you would have asked me yesterday, I would have probably said 10%.
But if he can be unique, I'm all for him.
Well not ALL, but I like the idea of/want.
My want score would be 60%
I want him more than I don't.
Shulk:
...Hell yes!! It's Shulk, *****es!
Alright, this is a character we're more likely to see, rather than not.
The fan demand is strong.
The relevancy is recent.
The abilities are unique.
The series continuation is confirmed.
And the Shulk is in Smash Bros.
That's my reasoning.
And all I need.
He fits every criteria. And I don't want to hear any "too new", because 2/5 of the newcomers so far have debuted in 2007.
I don't want to hear "one game", because Sheik, Ness, Lucas, and Roy.
This represents a new series, Nintendo's newest major series that already is getting a sequel, most likely because the first was so critically acclaimed and sell for a jillion dollars online.
Even if he's not in the sequel, doesn't matter. It's not like we'll see Isa and Matthew get in over Saki and Isaac.
I don't see them not making Shulk playable.
He makes too much sense, and is one of the 2 major characters with almost nothing going against them. I'd argue the other to be Palutena, but looking at this thread's results, I don't think I have to explain myself on that one.
He is not 100% guaranteed, and isn't exactly a shoo-in, but he's damn well close.
I was originally going to say 65%, but I just got myself extremely hyped just talking about him, so I'm going to have to say 77%
Want: 99.99%
Only characters in my top 6 get 100%, and he's closer to #9 on my wanted list.
Predictions:
Adam: Nobody is going to score him over Ridley. I don't think he'd get in over Dark Samus either. And he's on equal grounds with Anthony, Rundas, and Sylux, way too much competition as a 4th Metroid rep to receive high demand or... anything. For him to be highly expected or requested, he'll have to wait for the SSB game that comes out AFTER the one with Ridley's debut. 7%
Wait... he doesn't have any fans... I think 4.23% is a much safer prediction
2 DK newcomers: High. Very high. Dixie has a good shot. Cranky has a good shot. K Rool has a good shot.
Multiple series have recieved muliple characters every Smash game, with some even getting 3 in Melee, and Pokemon always getting 2. This is not unlikely. And I expect it to be voted as such. So... 69.32%?
Wait... this is WAY too optimistic... we aren't getting THAT many newcomers. I'll vote high for it, but I'm not so sure others will. I think it will be slightly below 50%, as most probably think it's less likely to happen than happening. So... 40.38%
And my nominations might change once I see who else is being nominated, but for now...
x4 Tiki
x1 King Boo

Changed some things....

 

[Mario.Man]

Sheriff Chance: 1% Probably not but anything can happen.

Sheriff Want: 10% I like the idea of a cowboy but I'd rather Dillon fill that role.


Shulk Chance: 70% Made by Monolith Soft who is now a first party producer for Nintendo, was making games for Namco, and worked with Sakurai on both Brawl and Meteos. Looks like good connections to me.

A lot of people want to play as him, 12th on Shortie's current poll, and around Palutena/K. Rool level in Japan by Chronobound's measure.

Laser/Energy sword move-set hasn't been done before for a playable character.

Only concern for me would be time constraints and he just misses the cut.

Want: 50% Not that high on my list but I'd enjoy playing him.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

whelp guess my time is over then,
time to go back to normal i'm still keeping the sig whether anyone likes or not!
sheriff - 0.25%
. . . seriously?
want - 0%
no
shulk - 65.00%
guys got a great chance, project was a huge deal and made this guy famous, he may be a little unkown to the casual crowd(his game is hard to find and expensive) but the guy got massive popularity, moveset, and would represent one of Nintendo's newish additions, monolith
want - 100%
my second most wanted character, period
adam - 0.12%
ridley . . . anyone else is forgotten
2 dk newcomers - 25.00%
to me, both dk newcomers got a 50/50 chance of appearing for one slot, for two, I just halved it
nominations:
pirate shipX5 (legend of Zelda)

 

[Pacack]

Sheriff:

Chance: 9%
Want: 20%
More interesting historical characters.

Shulk:

Chance: 20%
Don't see him getting in over the competition he has, but he still has an above decent chance.
Want: 10%
Not really interested, but moveset might sway me.

Predictions:
Adam: .45%
2 DK Newcomers: 22%

Noms: Non-Character Hanafuda Representation

 

[Groose]

Update may take a little bit longer than I initially said. I realized that it was Shulk's day, so I went and rewatched a bunch of epic Xenoblade stuff instead of updating the OP. Oops.

time to go back to normal i'm still keeping the sig whether anyone likes or not!

Keep it. You've earned it.

Welcome back, Based Groose! I started up yet another new nomination, Jack Frost!

Pleases tell me you don't believe that leak. Still, as a company mascot, I think he's worth considering.

 

[Gunla]

Pleases tell me you don't believe that leak. Still, as a company mascot, I think he's worth considering.

Remember:
-BigAxle hates leaks. And certainly declared that one a dream leak a while back.
-BigAxle is obsessed with SMT. Like, 4th favorite franchise.
-I actually want to see some sort of SMT representation in the future because of the massive coverage Nintendo has on it.
-On topic of leaks, I still don't believe any leaks at all. Anything can be disproved. And I'm actually beginning to scour down for some evidence that can result in the Tuna leak being debunked...

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Keep it. You've earned it.

Victory!

 

[andimidna]

Remember:
-BigAxle hates leaks. And certainly declared that one a dream leak a while back.
-BigAxle is obsessed with SMT. Like, 4th favorite franchise.
-I actually want to see some sort of SMT representation in the future because of the massive coverage Nintendo has on it.
-On topic of leaks, I still don't believe any leaks at all. Anything can be disproved. And I'm actually beginning to scour down for some evidence that can result in the Tuna leak being debunked...

You can't debunk it if it's real

 

[Groose]

Had to step out for a little while. I will finish the update soon-ish though!

You can't debunk dismantle it if it's real

Did someone say dismatntle? I can do it! I can take it all apart! Leaks, odds, predictions, lies! This is it! It's my moment! DISMANTLE! DISMATLE! DISMANTLE DISMANTLEDISMANTLEDISMANTLEDISMANTLEDISMANTLE!

​

 

[colder_than_ice]

Groose
I've just gotten word that we have not received proper authorization to rate the next character. We need to skip him for now.

 

[Gunla]

Groose
I've just gotten word that we have not received proper authorization to rate the next character. We need to skip him for now.

And now a word from our Sponsor!
"Adam Malkovich authorizes his rating."

 

[WonderSmash]

Sheriff

Chance - 20% Really old so I hope he'd get a significant update

Want - 5% Meh I'd prefer Dillon or Tin Star as a wild western rep

Shulk

Chance - 75% New Franchise, High popularity, Very unique

Want - 50% I'm not crazy about him but he'd definitely fit and I'd try him out

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Sherrif
15% Chance
60% Want
Retro, seems rather cool.

Shulk
75% Chance
100% Want
What do I need to say?

Nominating Lucas (The Wizard) x5
The Era of a New Dark Lord arises.

Adam 2.22%
2 Dk Newcomers 44.44%

 

[Groose]

Sheriff: 2.5%
Pros:
+Nintendo's First Character
+Melee Trophy

Cons:
-No need for a revival--Dillon exists.
-We already have an "old-timer"--Game and Watch exists

Sheriff Want: 33%
I'd much prefer Dillion, but I think a western-style character would be great.

Shulk: 50% chance
Pros:
+Very high Japanese popularity (top-five request, possibly)
+Roster was decided around Xenoblades' long-awaited American release
+Operation Rainfall attracted attention
+Sakurai is a fan of the game
+X is carrying on the torch
+Monado is a standout weapon

Cons:
-May not feature prominently in X or the future of his series
-Other new series out there also deserving of a character (Golden Sun, Sin and Punishment, Chibi-Robo, etc.)
-Lackluster sales of Xenoblade
-Few slots remaining
-One big title, but only one title nonetheless

I wouldn't be surprised if he were in the game. I wouldn't be surprised if he were not. I include him in my rosters as much as I can, but he seems to be left off them every other time. Tied for my fifth most likely newcomer left (Miis at 75%, Palutena at 66%, Pac-Man at 65%, Ridley at 60%, K. Rool and Shulk both at 50%, Takamaru and a few others in the 30% range).

Shulk Want: 100%
I want Xenoblade badly. It's one of the only games I've ever watched an LP of, and it is freaking awesome. Shulk has increased lately to become a Top-Five wanted character for me, possibly even as high as Number 3. (Sorry, Shulk--the only way you could move up from there is if either Ridley or Rool are confirmed...nobody will ever pass them).

Dillon x5
Speaking of Sheriffs, this one is extremely overrated. I still want him really bad, but he belongs a solid 5-10% lower chance score.

DAY OVER

...Sheriff, your chances are under arrest. This has been authorized by Adam Malkovitch!​

 

[Gunla]

Pros and Cons?
I see, it's... spreading. My rating system really does have an influence, eh... Gotta step up my game!

 

[Groose]

Sheriff (Retro)
7.50% chance
16.82% want
...Sheriff, there can only be a handful of characters in this game. It ain't big enough for all of you. Now, DRAW!

Shulk (Xenoblade)
64.06% chance (Day 136: 55.76%)
66.79% want (Day 136: 67.20%)
Shulk's want stayed virtually identical, falling by less than a half of a percent. His chance, however, increased by nearly nine percent; this increase has sent him flying by Pac-Man, Mii, and even Dixie Kong to become the new Rank 5 Chance. We will know his name indeed.

You guys want Ridley? Too bad, that's an unauthorized character pick. You prefer the Prime Trilogy to Other: M? Too bad, that's not an authorized statement. Yeah, yeah, yeah, let's get this over with: please rate Adam from Metroid in chance and want. In addition, let's discuss the Donkey Kong franchise again. Now that Tropical Freeze is in the rearview mirror without a newcomer sighting, will two DK newcomers still seem like a possibility? Please rate 2 DK Newcomers in chance and want.

Tomorrow will see us rating a trio of Alph, Brittany, and Charlie from Pikmin 3 and Non-Character Hanafuda representation. Please predict these interesting concepts.

...and I'm still working on the OP. Tomorrow I'll finish it. Maybe.

 

[Pacack]

Adam:

Chance: 1%
No.

Want: 1%
No.

2 DK Newcomers:

Chance: 10%
I would genuinely feel surprised. Dixie not being revealed with Tropical Freeze killed her chances in my eyes.

Want: 10%
Since I actively dislike Dixie and Cranky and see them being added in after K. Rool if they get in, the 10% I gave is on the off chance that K. Rool would be the second.

Alph, Brittany, and Charlie trio: 2.2%?
No idea.

Non-Character Hanfuda Representation: 7.67%
Very unsure of what people will think. I'm remaining somewhat optimistic, though.

Nominations: Snake x5

 

[Starcutter]

Adam: 0.1%
Want: 0% why him? there's no reason to want him.

2 DK characters: 56%
Want: 100% MAN I would love Dixie and lord Fredrik K. Rool

Drake's Crew: 0.3%

Nominations:
Marshal x5

 

[Gunla]

Adam- That One Control Freak
Pros
+Important Metroid Character
+Has shown fighting ability
+From a series that is likely to get a newcomer
Cons
-Most prominent game was Other M, the considered worst in the series.
-Ridley steals the chances of everyone.
-Anthony Higgs seems to be slightly more popular.
Overall... Adam, my apologies, but Detective Axle unauthorizes giving you anything above a 1%.
OVERALL RATING: .06%

Want: Over Ridley? Over Higgs? 00.01%. Denied!

Zwei Newcomers for DK
Pros
+Two newcomers for a franchise that are both likely.
+Any of the three can be unique.
Cons
-Two newcomers for one franchise is quite interestingly unlikely, especially this time around.
-Series Balance has it's limits. Even in newcomers.
Overall... the issue of how much for one franchise comes into play and getting two DK newcomers when Mario only gets one (so far) seems too off for it's own good. Still, it's plausible.
OVERALL RATING: 20%

Want: 30%- I'd only like to recieve one DK newcomer, but hey, both of the most likely ones are deserving.

PREDICTIONS:
Alpha-Beta-Gamma: They are going to get overrated. But a trio is a feat that is absolutely brain-racking when there's a trio already. Why would Sakurai replace it when he can just take the previous one. Predicting 2.1%.
Conditional-Top Decking: Captain Rainbow, an obscure Japanese only game, got a trophy already. I'm bloody sure we'll see at least a trophy or a mention of it. But remember, balance out the ratings for the prediction, right? Right. 4.6%.

NOMINATIONS:
Jack Frost (SMT) X5

 

[Smasher 101]

@Erimir wins extra nominations for his Sheriff prediction, while @Cheezey Bites wins for Shulk.

Adam's chances: 0.5% - Ridley.
Want: 0% - Ridley.

Donkey Kong Country 4: 50% - Could go either way.
Want: 100% - I really like both Dixie and K. Rool and would love to see either; having both would be even more awesome.

Pikmin 3 Trio prediction: 1.85%
Non-Character Hanafuda prediction: 5.45% - Two blind guesses.

Zoroark x5. His chance score needs to drop a bit. 20%'s too much when Mewtwo exists and Lucario's confirmed.