Adam Malkovich
One thing I'll give to him: I don't think The Other M was all bad. I mainly disliked the plot, and Samus's interactions with Adam Malkovich were one the worst parts (along with THE BABY THE BABY THE BABY). The gameplay was not bad though, and I wouldn't call it the worst Metroid as far as playing it nowadays (the original Metroid is not very fun to me as a modern player, but it was a pioneer). If it's the worst, it's partly because the standard set by the other games are so high.
Anyway, he's not popular and I don't see Metroid getting a newcomer unless it's Ridley. And if by some chance it's not Ridley, I'd expect either Anthony Higgs or Dark Samus.
Adam Malkovich chance: 0.01%
Adam Malkovich want: 0%
I'd be pissed to see this annoying character get in over Ridley.
2+ DK newcomers
I think the fact that Tropical Freeze's release has come and gone really hurts here. If Diddy had been revealed before Tropical Freeze, it would've been a perfect time to reveal Dixie, one of the most likely DK newcomers. But it also wouldn't have made sense to reveal K Rool then. But if Dixie and K Rool are getting in, they would've wanted to get Diddy out of the way earlier I think. Now they'd have to reveal both newcomers at random times (although E3 2014 will probably get more than one newcomer, so it's possible they could save K Rool to be part of the big E3 reveal and reveal Dixie at a random time). It is true that it is only the second series to have its whole cast revealed, aside from the singletons (Pit, Villager, Olimar and technically Sonic and WFT). So it has been set up for a newcomer to be revealed earlier than most other series (Pokemon, Zelda, Kirby, Metroid, Fire Emblem, Star Fox, Earthbound). Then again, with a cast of two, this seems a much less important indicator than all four Mario characters being revealed in the first 3 months.
It's also unusual for a series to get 2+ newcomers. In Melee it happened with Mario (3), Zelda (3-4), Pokemon (2) and Fire Emblem (2), counting clones as full characters. This is mainly a reflection of how tiny the Smash 64 roster was, though. In Brawl it only happened with Pokemon (2-4) and Kirby (2). Mario, Pokemon and Zelda are the three highest selling series, and Zelda is the most critically acclaimed. Kirby just had poor representation through Melee. But now DK is still among the least represented relative to sales (it's the 4th highest selling franchise in Brawl) and importance (DK is huge in Nintendo history). So DK getting two newcomers is quite possible. But it sticking down at the 3 slot level also seems quite plausible. If DK still had only one slot, I'd say definitely DK should get two newcomers, but moving from 2 to 4 is less likely.
I would be surprised and annoyed if it got no newcomers though.
The last consideration is how many newcomers we'll get at all. Sakurai has revealed 5 newcomers so far, and 4 of them were from new series. It seems that perhaps he will favor new series over old ones, so maybe no series will get 2 newcomers. And even if one does, it might be Mario or Pokemon and not DK. But there isn't a lot of room if we'll be seeing fewer newcomers this time, as expected. If there are only 10, two DK would leave only 3 more slots for any other new series, a possible retro, Ridley, new Pokemon, etc.
Two DK newcomers chance: 13%
All in all, I am less optimistic than before. We're not getting a larger batch of newcomers than Brawl (18) or Melee (14, including clones), and most likely a smaller one. It could be larger than Melee's 8 unique newcomers though. I'd think 14 is probably the upper bound though.
Two DK newcomers want: 65%
If we get on the higher end of the roster size, I'd definitely like both K Rool and Dixie. But I'd be fine with just K Rool.
Predictions:
Pikmin sidekicks: 1%
Hanafuda representation: 10%
Nominations:
5x Paper Mario
5x 50+ character slots
For the first one I found 55% of 89%
And for the second I just found the middle of the 2, to give a higher score.
I was thinking more about the chance scores you were giving to all the Metroid characters and all the DK characters. The scores you gave for them actually imply that there's a 66% chance that we'll get at least two DK newcomers, if you're treating them as independent. I don't think they should be treated as independent, however (I think two more Kongs are less likely than a Kong and K Rool, since that would provide more variety and uniqueness).
Also thought it was crazy how you gave Cranky 55% and Funky 10%, but K. Rool only 30%. And Dixie 89% even though the evidence for her doesn't give that much certainty. She has fan demand (but K Rool has higher fan demand), her appearance in Tropical Freeze (which could've been used to reveal her, but wasn't) and the expectation of a DK newcomer (which applies equally to K Rool), and less interesting move set potential than K Rool.
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