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Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

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OcarinaOfDoom

Smash Lord
Joined
Apr 27, 2013
Messages
1,106
NNID
OcarinaOfDoom
Zael: 2%
Want: 0%
Mi: 45%
Want: Can I go into the negatives? -9000%. Just no.
Alph: 4.5%
BC: 50%
omastar x 5
 

OctiVick

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Feb 1, 2014
Messages
393
Abstain from Zael

Mii Chance
- 85%
The Miis are showing up everywhere lately to Wii games, Street Pass, Nintendo network, etc. Its a safe to say they have a pretty good chance due to their large number appearances, popularity (Well outside smashboards hehe ^^; ), and that people recognize them as Nintendo's official avatar characters.
Mii Want - 100%
Another of my most wanted newcomers. I think with all they games they have they can make them an interesting move set (I still want to see a Mii Force related final smash).

Predictions
Alph - 2% - I don't think there would be any more pikmin reps.
Bowser's Castle Stage - 55% - Its definitely a possibility.

Nominations
Chibi X5
 
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loganhogan

Smash Ace
Joined
Dec 22, 2011
Messages
816
Zael
chance 10% He could score an AT, he will probably be a trophy, but more than likely won't be playable. I know that he is the main hero and he's relatively new so i'll give him that. However he's comparable to Jill's situation in Brawl.
want 35%

Mii
chance 75% They're the current day Nintendo mascots, although I wish they weren't so simplistic. Their wii/mii series are amongst the best selling Nintendo titles, they're easy and simple in design. They also make for background filling/crowds and Villager sort of fills their role so that could be an obstacle.
want 1% I don't like them too much for smash bros, I hated seeing them in Mario Kart. If find their customization too limited you can't even design or change their outfits.
:ohwell:

predict 1.78% and 60%

x3 Sheriff
x2 dr. Lobe
 
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YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
Joined
Dec 24, 2001
Messages
7,123
Location
Still up Peach's dress.
Zael
Chance: 2%

The Last Story is an odd game. I saw exactly ONE copy of it near where I live whilst I saw a good handful of copies of Pandora's Tower(Aeron) and although I didn't see any Xenoblade copies, Nintendo's been pushing that one forward. Of the three I feel like the Last Story probably had the least coverage, and thus Zael is a real outside choice.

Want: 40%
Indifference mostly, but I can't see why he'd be put in over Shulk.

Mii
Chance: 85%
Inescapable. They've done enough to warrant the spot and Nintendo love to use them to promote their new consoles.

Want: 50%
I don't HATE the idea of Mii anymore, which is lucky since I think they're an unavoidable incoming character. Depending on their implementation depends on how I'll take their inclusion. Make them completely customizable and you get severe balancing issues, and people unlikely to use the rest of the Smash cast over them. Make them too restrictive and they may come off as too bland. Getting the Mii's balance right is going to be an interesting thing to behold.

Predictions:
Alph: 4%
Flying Pikmin and Rock Pikmin are his saving graces...but I doubt it'll be enough to keep others from ranking him fairly low.

Bowser's Castle Stage:
45%
Predicting many Mario fans are practically begging for this one to happen. Will Sakurai care is the question though?

Nominations:
One of Rate Their Chances Top 10 most likely characters gets made into an Assist Trophy X 5. Need a better name for this.
 

FalKoopa

Rainbow Waifu
BRoomer
Joined
Dec 16, 2012
Messages
32,231
Location
India/भारत
3DS FC
1650-3685-3998
Switch FC
SW-5545-7990-4793
Top 10 of RTC being ATs? The only problem I see is that the list is dynamic, characters can move in or move out of the top 10 due to a rerate. That said, it hasn't happened even once since I started making the charts, so we'll see how it goes.
 

Gunla

wow, gaming!
BRoomer
Joined
Aug 18, 2013
Messages
9,069
Location
Iowa
Let’s get Zael out of the way.

Zael-No Problem Here.

Pros
+Game came to America
Cons
-Pathetic Sales, unpopular, not as popular as Shulk, Kay? Seriously, there’s little going for this guy. I’m sorry, there just isn’t. Not when Xenoblade was the far more popular of the Rain trio.
Overall… there’s very little going for this guy.
OVERALL RATING: 2%

Want: 01.00%- And I don’t want him in over Shulk, either. Or anyone really for that matter.


Miiverse- DAMN THIS THING!
EDIT: LISTEN TO THIS WHILE READING MY RATING. FOR EFFECT.


Okay, before we begin, I’d like to make something very clear. Something regarding a certain leak.

-The NeoGAF E3 Leak has been indeed disproven and is technically dead. It has not been revived just because of Little Mac’s inclusion. He was indeed fully obviously going to appear as many sites, places and the like heavily expected him and was not surprised that he was included. The fact that this is indeed a “correct leak” is effectively makes it null and void; until the game releases, much like the ChaosZero leak of old, you cannot effectively and correctly say that without a hint of doubt it’s 100% true. It does not work as effective evidence alone here.

-Just because someone gets a single prediction right doesn’t mean the rest are right as well. I’ve told you many times before there are the people who looked left field and saw WFT coming. It’s not too surprising. Everyone counts it as right because of this, but this isn’t exactly evidence. Anything can practically predicted given you take the right perspective. In fact, it’s likely this guy was given the actual info and then he attempted to throw people off. But it explicitly stated E3 2013. Not 2014, not another E3. Don’t twist a disproven leak for ratings here. I’ve had it with this leak still lingering and I’m downright fed up with people believing that he must be right. People predicted WFT, end of story; it doesn’t change everything, goodbye.

Alright… LOGIC BULLET ENGAGE. Because you knew this was coming. I'm known for crazy large posts and this was no exception.

Ichigeki0naoto.png


There are a few things going for the Mii. I’ll be clean and list these first. You know, to keep order, right? Like Pros and Cons.

-The Mii is the mascot of the Wii series. Nuff said. Massive sales of games with them, they are the Mario of casual consumers.

-Find Mii stage shows empty cage. Possibly a Mii will appear there or something else entirely.

-The Mii is designed in similar terms to Mario of concept. They are designed to reach all audiences of Nintendo and intend to connect the hardcore Nintendo gamers and the more casual consumers. Unfortunately, while the audiences don’t always receive it well, it’s certainly a better effort that what is seen in Microsoft’s avatars. As a result, they are one of Nintendo’s biggest items. They appear in a variety of games, often can be used to represent profiles or various Easter eggs in games (Mario Galaxy, Brawl, Prime Trilogy) or on a more casual consumer scale, player characters (Wii Sports, Wii Sports Resort) though this is seldom seen in games specifically oriented towards hardcore gamers. With Super Smash Bros for Wii U & 3DS, they are approaching this in a best of both worlds way, quite literally: The game speed is a fusion of Brawl & Melee, the game is a tad more combo oriented than Brawl, etc.

-Customization element is likely to go to these if they are in. But the issue is this proves a massive problem as well, a serious double edged sword. It may be incredibly unique, but it poses a big problem.

Now we shall cover some issues. These do indeed exist and some easy legal waver is not going to be the solution.

-Possibilities of legality troubles and using likeness of other people will cause issues. In Europe, many games have been banned for having any references to The Third Reich in any manner or anything resembling the Nazi Party, user content can constitute as such, as it does not do anything against a user creating said Mii. Seriously, this could prove to be a big hurdle because people will go online and fight with Miis that not only can be likeness of other characters, but offensive material as well (The Mii Maker can easily be manipulated to create phallic imagery). To moderate this would require a constantly active team of moderators or reports that would likely integrate Miiverse, which not everyone actually uses. As a result, it’s possible that Nintendo may judge it’s too much of a double edged sword and may say no. Banning it from online does not really change much either. Tourneys will still see these, and I mean casual tourneys. Not casual consumer ones. But you may say that Pokémon X & Y uses a system of banning users, but it’s actually just automated. It checks if the user has an illegitimate move set, is using Mega Lati@site (as it’s not fully released yet) or if the Pokémon has an illegitimate ability. Only if one of those conditions is met the user is banned. The system cannot tell with something like a Mii unless explicitly by name of the Mii, but a smart user could use 1337, or other syntactical manipulation.

-Customization is possibly broken. Sure, it’s unique, but how about I pull an example of a customization fighter with good limits? Emerl from Sonic Battle could use the attacks of opponents by battling them and adding them to his memory. As a result, you literally programmed his move set within limits. However, this ended up becoming insanely broken as the stat increases made him better than every fighter. This very well could happen with Mii; the right combination could be worse than MK, and he’d no doubt be banned in many tourneys. But on Nintendo, Sakurai has made it a point to balance out the cast, Brawl- style: He’s taking individual elements and putting people on the level of MK from what we have seen. Having something like this can easily break that mold and matchups would be a nightmare and cause heavy time consumption. And we know Sakurai.

-Making a Mii restrictive to one move set is also very strange and against the Mii itself. These are purely about customization. Making a move set that is only for Miis but having the partial customization of a custom head is very contradictory, something Sakurai wouldn’t do.

-Just because Sakurai went back on his words with the Villager doesn’t mean he’s doing it with Mii. Enough. Things can’t be proven with one exception.

-Villager is already a character that represents the literal persona of the player. Having another is redundant.

-Having this bevy of customization features will take up a serious amount of time. Like more than just one newcomer. Remember when Sakurai said one newcomer is like doing 5 clones? Having a custom Mii move set thing would triple this time development at the very least.

-There’s already representation of two of the most popular left field Nintendo Genres.

-Final Point: Mii has absolutely no personality, charm or anything of the sort. Unlike every character from Smash. Yes, even ROB and G&W have some charm. As a result, having no custom moveset literally gives it no real unique quality.

Overall… there’s a lot of big issues that prevent this, but they may prevail in legality. There’s not great chances for Mii.

BULLETS DEPLETED

SEEK COVER TO RELOAD

OVERALL RATING: 25%- If anyone wants to refute me, I’ll pass. I think my rating has been mostly justified as to the cons are very large issues. And don't even think about trying to shove that "leak" down my throat as evidence, please.

Want: -100%/00.00%: The reason I dislike Mii so much is not just because of the fact that they have no emotion, they will get memeified, the offensive Miis, the broken customization that is bound to happen. Not just because of the fact that they aren’t really Nintendo “All-Stars” like others are, not just because of the fact that Wandering Hero is far more badass and easier to work with (Magic, Swords, Cats and Dogs!) and the fact that the Find Mii stage helps the wandering heroes’ chances. It’s because of my own modesty. Putting yourself into a game to be the player seems ridiculous to me. I don’t exactly like talking myself up or anything like that. If the game gives me characters to play as already, I will always go towards that option. The element of placing oneself into a game sounds incredibly narcissistic, something I’d hate to be acting like.

As a result, I primarily hate the idea of placing real life people as playable in games like Smash Bros. In a game like Wii Sports or something, I’m fine with it. But nowhere, absolutely nowhere else.

I dislike Miis so much that
I even made another version of Naoto.



PREDICTIONS

Alpha- 6%- Are we really getting a new Pikmin Rep?

Bowser’s Crappy Castle- 30%

Nominations

I’ll use my extra nominations this time for Top 10 of RTC as an AT X10.
 
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Aqua Rock X

Smash Ace
Joined
Oct 29, 2007
Messages
717
Location
Tennessee
ZAEL

Chance: 1% - Very obscure.

Want: 0% - Shulk or BUST!!

MII

Chance: 75% - Not exactly because of the "leak" but the Miis do seem to be gaining more of Nintendo's ground.

Want: 0% - Noo.

Alph Prediction: 5% - I don't know what to think so blind guess I guess.

Bowser's Castle Stage Prediction: 24% - We'll see.

Nominations:
Balloon Fighter x5 (Joining the cause)
 

Spears In Smash Bros.

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jul 31, 2013
Messages
263
Zael: 0.3%
Third party, blah blah blah, too recent and unimportant, etc. etc.

Want: 22%
Had to check the OP to see what he looked like. Wow, that's a lot of chains.

Mii: 16%
I think they'd be pretty difficult to effectively implement, considering that they have customizable heights and weights. Unless, of course, only "default" Miis are playable, but then what would be the point?

Want: 12.5%
They definitely deserve some recognition in Smash Bros. (Brawl didn't show them off too much, did it?), but there's other ways of doing this. The Find Mii stage, for instance.

Alf prediction: 3.13%
Bowser's Castle prediction: 47.80%

Nominate:
Protoman x5
 

OctiVick

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Feb 1, 2014
Messages
393
-Possibilities of legality troubles and using likeness of other people will cause issues. In Europe, many games have been banned for having any references to The Third Reich in any manner or anything resembling the Nazi Party, user content can constitute as such, as it does not do anything against a user creating said Mii. Seriously, this could prove to be a big hurdle because people will go online and fight with Miis that not only can be likeness of other characters, but offensive material as well (The Mii Maker can easily be manipulated to create phallic imagery). To moderate this would require a constantly active team of moderators or reports that would likely integrate Miiverse, which not everyone actually uses. As a result, it’s possible that Nintendo may judge it’s too much of a double edged sword and may say no. Banning it from online does not really change much either. Tourneys will still see these, and I mean casual tourneys. Not casual consumer ones. But you may say that Pokémon X & Y uses a system of banning users, but it’s actually just automated. It checks if the user has an illegitimate move set, is using Mega Lati@site (as it’s not fully released yet) or if the Pokémon has an illegitimate ability. Only if one of those conditions is met the user is banned. The system cannot tell with something like a Mii unless explicitly by name of the Mii, but a smart user could use 1337, or other syntactical manipulation.
Well I do respect your concerns and I do know that Miis can cause trouble if not checked but I do think there would be a way that could avoid this issue without having a separate mod team search out for people. Like games like Nintendo land your constantly getting Miis from around the world and thus you don't want any offensives ones showing up, In that game Mii's are restricted to the ones that are under Nintendo Network accounts (which is already have mods removing offensive Miis). So while in online matches your only restricted to a Mii under a NN account so it would avoid most of the problem (offline matches however go nuts hehe ^^). I have also played world wide online games with Miis like MK and Mario Sports Mix and I never came across any offensive Miis and those games don't even have mods, but that might just be Mii (bad pun).

Anyway I just wanted to bring that up and I do still respect your opinions as I hope you do mine. Also sorry If I caused any inconvenience ^^;
Thank you
 
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LoneKonWolf

Lazy Lonely Lurker☕
Joined
Oct 8, 2013
Messages
3,661
Location
Somewhere with Coffee
zeal - 0.01
shulk, that is all
want - 0%
shulk, again
mii - 25%
look at axle's post
want - 0%
no, imagine the online mode for sakes
alph - 0.83%
if we're getting a pikmin rep, its going to be louie, and he's not even good
bowser castle - 35.83%
no idea
nominations:
balloon fighterX5
had to be short, I'm in a bit of a hurry
 

Glaciacott

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 4, 2013
Messages
1,628
Location
Mintendo Noodle House
Zael
ABSTAIN

Mii
Chance - 70%
They're very likely, for reasons most people have already stated. The only thing that makes me a bit hesitant on them is the fact Villager seems to have some things from the Mii, like the bowling ball and the punching gloves. So I'm really not sure what the stance on the Mii is.

Want - 40%
I wouldn't initially like it, but in the end since they're semi-expected I don't mind too much.

Predictions
Alph - 4.7%
Should be lower than Louie
Bowser's Castle - 20.6%
I never know how to predict stages

Nominations
x5 Magolor
 

TheMysterious2634

Smash Cadet
Joined
Feb 14, 2014
Messages
29
Zael:
ABSTAIN
Mii:
Chance: 35% They are so-so, but honestly, they don't have a lot going for them
Want: 0% Ew. I hate the idea of literally putting myself in a game. I'd rather believe that I'm the Mother of Cosmos or a princess that's special ability is her ass. It's far more immersing and far more fun. So no.

Alph: 4% No more Pikmin reps are needed to be discussed...
Bowser Castle: 35% Meh.

x5 Medli (non-playable)
 
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Groose

Smash Champion
Joined
Jun 14, 2013
Messages
2,228
Location
Villanova
Let's rate Mii... with a twist. Instead of making my own arguments up from scratch, I'll be responding to good old Big Axle's comments. Also, I'll be keeping it plain--no Ace Attorney today. You want to fire a Logic Bullet? I hope you're ready for my return fire. My arguments are ready to roll, so... pick a god and pray. And don't take it personally that I'm quoting your post; your post was extremely thorough and you brought up pretty much all major points on both sides of the arguments. You're presenting evidence and interpreting it one way; I'll just read your evidence and give my different interpretation.
BigAxle said:
-The NeoGAF E3 Leak has been indeed disproven and is technically dead. It has not been revived just because of Little Mac’s inclusion. He was indeed fully obviously going to appear as many sites, places and the like heavily expected him and was not surprised that he was included. The fact that this is indeed a “correct leak” is effectively makes it null and void; until the game releases, much like the ChaosZero leak of old, you cannot effectively and correctly say that without a hint of doubt it’s 100% true. It does not work as effective evidence alone here.

-Just because someone gets a single prediction right doesn’t mean the rest are right as well. I’ve told you many times before there are the people who looked left field and saw WFT coming. It’s not too surprising. Everyone counts it as right because of this, but this isn’t exactly evidence. Anything can practically predicted given you take the right perspective. In fact, it’s likely this guy was given the actual info and then he attempted to throw people off. But it explicitly stated E3 2013. Not 2014, not another E3. Don’t twist a disproven leak for ratings here. I’ve had it with this leak still lingering and I’m downright fed up with people believing that he must be right. People predicted WFT, end of story; it doesn’t change everything, goodbye.
I agree with part of this, yet I also disagree with part of this. I can't say for certain that the leak is real, but I do find it credible enough to warrant giving the characters involved a slight boost to their chances. Predicting such characters would be difficult (yet not impossible), but that is not the only thing going for the leak. Sal Romano is a respected journalist, and a successful leaker for another franchise (was it Street Fighter? I forget for the moment) has verified that the source that sent the predictions to Sal had an opportunity to see the game. Additionally, this game doesn't seem to be entirely airtight with regards to holding onto information; the Palutena leak is one I do believe (whereas this one I merely am 50/50), and its existence shows that it's possible for information to leak.

Overall, I think this leak would boost Mii's chances to a respectable amount were he otherwise low in chance... but he really doesn't need a boost. As things currently stand, I think I'll agree with you--this leak is not the major chance saver that some people are making it out to be. It's only the icing on the top for a probable character--this situation is no different from Little Mac's before the Direct.

BigAxle said:
Alright… LOGIC BULLET ENGAGE. Because you knew this was coming. I'm known for crazy large posts and this was no exception.

There are a few things going for the Mii. I’ll be clean and list these first. You know, to keep order, right? Like Pros and Cons.

-The Mii is the mascot of the Wii series. Nuff said. Massive sales of games with them, they are the Mario of casual consumers.


-The Mii is designed in similar terms to Mario of concept. They are designed to reach all audiences of Nintendo and intend to connect the hardcore Nintendo gamers and the more casual consumers. Unfortunately, while the audiences don’t always receive it well, it’s certainly a better effort that what is seen in Microsoft’s avatars. As a result, they are one of Nintendo’s biggest items. They appear in a variety of games, often can be used to represent profiles or various Easter eggs in games (Mario Galaxy, Brawl, Prime Trilogy) or on a more casual consumer scale, player characters (Wii Sports, Wii Sports Resort) though this is seldom seen in games specifically oriented towards hardcore gamers. With Super Smash Bros for Wii U & 3DS, they are approaching this in a best of both worlds way, quite literally: The game speed is a fusion of Brawl & Melee, the game is a tad more combo oriented than Brawl, etc.

-Customization element is likely to go to these if they are in. But the issue is this proves a massive problem as well, a serious double edged sword. It may be incredibly unique, but it poses a big problem.
Allow me to interject right here, please. I'm afraid you've forgotten one of Mii's biggest selling points--popularity. Yes, Mii is despised by the more "dedicated" of Smash fans. But we must also remember that we are not the only ones who play the game--a large number of the people who are going to buy the game aren't frequenting Smash boards, yet that makes their desires no less real than ours. This is a crowd who was introduced to the series through Brawl, a crowd that probably has no idea who King K. Rool and Takmaru are, a crowd that demands Mii and third-party characters above pretty much anyone else. While Sakurai will and should cater to the fans who get more mileage out of his games (us), he also must take into consideration the large base of customers who aren't so speculative. And, really, who else would he use for this role? Shadow the Hedgehog?

You did touch on it, but something I must also emphasize is how important Miis have become to Nintendo. They're not just avatars used as icons for online play. Games upon games upon games feature them. There is the obvious Wii Series which centers around them, but then you must also consider series like Pilotwings have been redesigned with Miis in mind. As if that's not enough, they have Nintendoland, Mario, and Animal Crossing in their sights, too.

Yesterday I said that Meowth was pretty much the most iconic Nintendo character that never made it into Smash, barring perhaps Toad. I forgot someone: Mii. This avatar has become more famous than anything the company has produced, excluding only Mario and Pikachu.
BigAxle said:
Now we shall cover some issues. These do indeed exist and some easy legal waver is not going to be the solution.

-Possibilities of legality troubles and using likeness of other people will cause issues. In Europe, many games have been banned for having any references to The Third Reich in any manner or anything resembling the Nazi Party, user content can constitute as such, as it does not do anything against a user creating said Mii. Seriously, this could prove to be a big hurdle because people will go online and fight with Miis that not only can be likeness of other characters, but offensive material as well (The Mii Maker can easily be manipulated to create phallic imagery). To moderate this would require a constantly active team of moderators or reports that would likely integrate Miiverse, which not everyone actually uses. As a result, it’s possible that Nintendo may judge it’s too much of a double edged sword and may say no. Banning it from online does not really change much either. Tourneys will still see these, and I mean casual tourneys. Not casual consumer ones. But you may say that Pokémon X & Y uses a system of banning users, but it’s actually just automated. It checks if the user has an illegitimate move set, is using Mega Lati@site (as it’s not fully released yet) or if the Pokémon has an illegitimate ability. Only if one of those conditions is met the user is banned. The system cannot tell with something like a Mii unless explicitly by name of the Mii, but a smart user could use 1337, or other syntactical manipulation.
I agree with you here. This may be the single biggest thing holding Mii out, in my opinion. Nintendo would have to design some sort of Mii sensoring system or some kind of workaround to include them in online play, and that makes them someone who'd be pretty difficult to include. However, knowing Nintendo, they would find a fix if they needed to... and probably fail at doing so.

This point alone brings Mii down quite a bit for me. I actually see it as the only major problem against their inclusion. Your other points I won't let slide so easily.

BigAxle said:
-Customization is possibly broken. Sure, it’s unique, but how about I pull an example of a customization fighter with good limits? Emerl from Sonic Battle could use the attacks of opponents by battling them and adding them to his memory. As a result, you literally programmed his move set within limits. However, this ended up becoming insanely broken as the stat increases made him better than every fighter. This very well could happen with Mii; the right combination could be worse than MK, and he’d no doubt be banned in many tourneys. But on Nintendo, Sakurai has made it a point to balance out the cast, Brawl- style: He’s taking individual elements and putting people on the level of MK from what we have seen. Having something like this can easily break that mold and matchups would be a nightmare and cause heavy time consumption. And we know Sakurai.

-Making a Mii restrictive to one move set is also very strange and against the Mii itself. These are purely about customization. Making a move set that is only for Miis but having the partial customization of a custom head is very contradictory, something Sakurai wouldn’t do.
How would making a Mii restricted to a more limited moveset be against the Mii itself? In many (perhaps even the majority) of Mii's appearences, they have all played identical to one another--most of the time, customization of Miis is restricted to their faces and minor other details. Having a completely customized moveset is definitely not necessary for Mii to be battle ready, but it is an obvious choice to make them unique. Non-requisite potential for a customizable moveset can't hurt them--it can only help them.

What you clearly don't understand is what people see in the appeal of Miis. Many of the supporters don't really care if they'd be customizable--they probably have never even thought of such a thing. People want to play as Miis because they want to see themselves--their actual selves--fight a group of Nintendo All-Stars. People like you and me are probably hoping for a K. Rool and Ridley grudge match, but a great deal of Mii's supporters just want to go in and pit themselves against Bowser to save the day.
BigAxle said:
-Just because Sakurai went back on his words with the Villager doesn’t mean he’s doing it with Mii. Enough. Things can’t be proven with one exception.
...what words are there to go back on? I don't remember him saying much of anything about them before. Also, even if he did say something before Brawl, the picture of Nintendo has changed in the last half-decade. Miis have become ubiquitous; their situation has changed entirely! It would actually be somewhat strange for Sakurai to think the same of Miis even though their role has completely changed.

What your words do bring to my mind that may hurt Miis is SUKAPON. Remember how Sakurai rejected Sukapon around Melee? Wasn't it something to do with difficulty programming detachable limbs? I don't think such a thing necessarily hurts Mii too much (it was an old quote about different hardware with a less-experienced team and a less-important character), but it is worth noting.
BigAxle said:
-Villager is already a character that represents the literal persona of the player. Having another is redundant.
Oh, come now. Villager is the persona the player takes while playing Animal Crossing. That's completely different from the persona the player takes when playing the Wii Series; although they have the same blank-slate personality, the characters are designed differently and do completely different things.

..one thing that does stand out here and does make me drop my Mii score--the Mii Mask. In the Animal Crossing franchise, you can turn Villager's face into that of your Mii's. This would negate the need for including Mii as a seperate character, and it would negate the Wi-Fi problem--just disable Mii Mask on Wi-Fi. Also, this could explain why Villager has Boxing Gloves and a Bowling Ball--he is not just a Villager, but also a Mii.

BigAxle said:
-Final Point: Mii has absolutely no personality, charm or anything of the sort. Unlike every character from Smash. Yes, even ROB and G&W have some charm. As a result, having no custom moveset literally gives it no real unique quality.

I said no Ace Attorney, but I could't help it. Just because you don't see the potential in a character doesn't mean that others cannot. Miis have the personality of the player--they can be assigned whatever charm and story that the player wants. Take for example what Miis are to me:

I personally like Miis and Wuhu Island. No, I don't want Miis in my Smash because they don't have that coolness factor that so many potential newcomers have. Even so, I can still see the charm behind the characters: they're a happy tribe of people living in an island paradise. They're easily excited over the slightest things, like sports and competitions. Their little world is so peaceful and serene; it's not about good versus evil, dark versus light... it's about an island of people who enjoy having fun.

Heck, even if the Miis were absolutely soulless creatures, it wouldn't mater. Smash doesn't require an abundance of personality... a good half-dozen of the characters got in with very little to spare.

BigAxle said:
OVERALL RATING: 25%- If anyone wants to refute me, I’ll pass. I think my rating has been mostly justified as to the cons are very large issues. And don't even think about trying to shove that "leak" down my throat as evidence, please.
Excellent post, sir. I may interpret the evidence differently, but I thank you for such a thorough interpetation. Obviously your score will count as it's just as valid as mine. Heck, as long as you don't say something like, "Dur hur hur K. Rool is owned by Rare and he looks stupid anyway, 0%" or "ladidadada, Miis are the worst thing to happen to Nintendo, so Nintendo would never put them in this game, .01%," you're fine. Many of the posters here go above and beyond the call of duty; you go above and beyond even them, and I appreciate and approve of that.

So now that I've done my discussion:

Mii: 75% chance
Most likely newcomer remaining.

Mii Want: 33%
I like Miis in Wii Sports Resort and stuff, but I don't really see the draw of playing as yourself in a Smash Bros. title. It's all about All-Star matchups, and I don't think I'm an All-Star. @ Gunla Gunla you nailed this one. I'd prefer that Mii didn't make the cut, and that's even before factoring in how annoying they will be on Wi-Fi. Still, they have solid moveset potential, and I certainly don't dislike Miis, so I'll toss them 33%.

Zael: 2.5%
I highly doubt his game is big enough to get him in, especially since Shulk is a much more requested character from that group of games.

Zael Want: 50%
Epic design. Nothing else to say.

Adam Malkovitch x5
Nomination AUTHORIZED!
 
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Gunla

wow, gaming!
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@ Groose Groose
I do say, mighty good show. Each of us presents quite a good point. I'm proud to present a ton of evidence for my claims and ratings and that it serves as basis for a rating or two!
-I'd respond induvidually but I'm fairly certain both sides have been well explained. And time, that's always an issue. As for a god? @Hades the Magnificent. :troll:
 
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Groose

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Top 10 of RTC being ATs? The only problem I see is that the list is dynamic, characters can move in or move out of the top 10 due to a rerate. That said, it hasn't happened even once since I started making the charts, so we'll see how it goes.
I'm definitely game for that day; we'll just rate the Top Ten as we see them at the time. I'm aware that it will probably be a bit more... intense than normal, but I'm confident the people here can handle it.

@ Groose Groose
I do say, mighty good show. Each of us presents quite a good point. I'm proud to present a ton of evidence for my claims and ratings and that it serves as basis for a rating or two!
-I'd respond induvidually but I'm fairly certain both sides have been well explained. And time, that's always an issue. As for a god? @Hades the Magnificent. :troll:
That's the glory of speculation: we all have the same evidence, but how we view that evidence can be extremely varied. As long as we remain civil and respect the idea of others, we can improve our own ideas.

...and I wouldn't pray to Hades, if I were you. Speaking of him, I haven't heard anything from him lately. Hmm...

DAY OVER

RETURN OF GROOSE
 

Gunla

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...and I wouldn't pray to Hades, if I were you. Speaking of him, I haven't heard anything from him lately. Hmm...
Hades Confirmed? :drfacepalm: Because I want to see Hades again. So I can represent the Hood of Nature again. It's too much fun.
tumblr_m3ewr40MQ41r2mxjfo1_1280.png
 
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Groose

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Zael (The Last Story)
2.68% chance
21.18% want

That's his Last Story. It's all over. I'm sorry, I got nothin.

Mii (Wii)
61.62% chance (Day 17: 57.08%)
28.26% want (Day 17: 27.40%)
Mii increased by a noticeable amount in chance and broke the 60% barrier. Mii also passed Pac-Man to become our Rank Six Chance, but he still trails behind Dixie. Me don't thin me sentences sound right with "Mii" as the subject.

You guys ever play the Pikmin series? Well, if you do, you may know Alph, today's candidate. Can this little guy stand a chance, or will he get squashed? Please rate Alph in chance and want. After that, we're heading to a location we all know and love to pull our hair out at: Bowser's Castle. Please rate a Bowser's Castle Stage in chance and want.

Tomorrow we'll see Magolor from Kirby and any form of noteworthy Fatal Frame/Spirit Camera representation. Please predict away!
 
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Toxicroaker

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Alph: 0.5% Nope.
Want: 5%

Bowser's Castle: 65% Last iconic mario stage left.
Want: 100%

Malagor: 1.11%
Spirit Camera Representation: 15%

x5 Balloon Fighter

First twice in a row... Wow...
 
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Hippopotasauce

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Alph likelihood: 1%
Want: 70%

Bowser's Castle Likelihood: 40%
Want: 90%

Magalor: .95%
Spirit Camera Representation: 2.15%

Unlockable Newcomers x5
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Seeing all of those abstains for Zael yesterday made me think that people haven't heard of his story… it might as well have been his last.
Alph and Bowser's Castle has been added to the Directory.

Alph
Chance:
4%

Alph by himself has a small enough chance. Unless Sakurai is totally desperate for a new Pikmin character and wants to put Alph in the game, he might do that. However, I find Alph to be too new. Pikmin 3 is getting a stage, but I doubt that it will get a character as well. There isn't sufficient enough data that truly says that people want Alph; I'm pretty sure there are people now, but people back then in 2012, when the roster was being made, had no idea who Alph is.
Alph is definitely easily cloneable, though I can see that the Rock and Flying Pikmin might take time.
EDIT: I mean, is it safe to call him a Nintendo all-star? That's what I mean by he's too new. I am unsure if people wanted Alph after the release of Pikmin 3, but I find it to be a bit too late now to ask him to be put in. Pikmin is on the lower end of the spectrum. It's not really a series that is ready for 2 or even 3 reps. Depending how things are for the next Smash game, Alph might be one of the biggest contenders. For now though, the world is not ready for him.
Want: 0%
Meh.

Bowser's Castle
Chance:
15%

I was originally going to give this a 5%, but then I had an epiphany. You know the Punch Out!! stage? That will be on both versions!
The thing that I feared about for Bowser's Castle is what system would it go on. I mean, it's a rather prominent area in the Mario series, what system could it possibly go on? That is what I was conflicted with thinking before. Since Bowser's Castle is heavily seen in the Mario games on both systems, it could be a case where Sakurai would put it on the Wii U and 3DS.
However, I am a bit more skeptical. Bowser's Castle is a no-brainer area and it's rather requested numerous times, but why hasn't it been added already? Something tells me that Sakurai is going to overlook this area… again…
Want: 100%
It's Bowser's Castle and it needs to be done. The music would be amazing and the battles would be frantic. Yes please!

Magolor Prediction: 1.17%
2 things:
1. People will give him 5s and maybe 10s since he is the most recent villain.
2. Bandana Dee fans will come in and give double zeroes.
Fatal Frame Prediction: .03%
Definitely impossible.

Nominations: Shulk 5x

Ehh… not my best post. I'm a bit tired right now. I'll edit it tomorrow with better explanations.
Zael (The Last Story)
2.68% chance
21.18% want

That's his Last Story. It's all over. I'm sorry, I got nothin.
This made me laugh! :laugh:
 
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colder_than_ice

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Alph
Chance: 2% - Sadly, I don't think Pikmin is getting a second playable character. Olimar represents the series just fine on his own, and the other five playable characters are all very similar to him. In the very unlikely event that Pikmin does get a second character, it should to be Alph before Louie. Alph could bring both Winged and Rock Pikmin into the mix so that all regular Pikmin types will be represented.
Want: 80% - Because you can never have too many pikmin. :)

Bowser's Castle
Chance: 38% - It's one of the most important places in the Mario Universe after all.
Want: 15% - I have little interest in Magma Worlds.

Magolor prediction: 4.7%

Fatal Frame representation prediction: 0.66%

Nominations: At least one character that we rated lower than 10% to become playable. x5
 
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Chandeelure

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-Alph:
Chances: 1,2%
Want: 0%

-Bowser's Castle:
Chances: 42%
Want: 90%

-Magolor Prediction: 3,1%

-Fatal Frame Representation Prediction: 1%

-Nomination: Toon Zelda/Tetra X10

Magolor Prediction: 1.17%
Bandana Dee fans will come in and give double zeroes.
I like Magolor :c
 
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Pacack

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Alph:

Chance: 2%?
Not likely at all, but I suppose it might happen?

Want: 0%
No thanks. He's just a second Olimar, and Olimar did it better anyways.

Bowser's Castle:

Chance: 33%
It's perfectly possible, but it may get passed over (again) for another stage.

Want: 80%
Yes, please.

Predicitons:
Magolor: 3%
Fatal Frame Prediction: .1%

Nominations: x5 Non-character Hanafuda Representation
 

Gunla

wow, gaming!
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Short Rating, time is limited.


Alpha
Chance: 2.3%
Want: 0%- Olimar Clone is too likely.

Bowser's Crap Castle
Chance: 30%
Want: 90%- I want a Bowser home stage that makes good sense.

Predictions:
Magalor-Spooky. 2.3%- He's getting 100% want, even though I'm a BWD supporter.
Fatal Frame: .09%-No.

Nominations: Shulk X5
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Alph:

3% Chance: The problem with Pikmin is there's almost no way to go about making a newcomer for the series that isn't a clone of Olimar. He does everything you'd want in a Pikmin set, it's hard to beat, or in fact to find anything new to explore in a set. When Sakurai is putting a focus on creative movesets that stand out, a clone is not likely. All that Alph, or any Pikmin newcomer can bring for that matter, is the two or three new types of Pikmin not used by Olimar.

The other problem is that Pikmin isn't that popular. It's a niche game, it has its fans and is assuredly beloved by Nintendo. Sakurai is also probably a big fan considering that he laboriously crafted the set for Olimar, which is one of the best Brawl movesets in my opinion. However, to justify a second rep in this series, it would need to be a little more prominent. That wouldn't be the case if the series wasn't made up of similar protagonists and impossibly huge enemies.

7% Want: I give Alph a little less than I gave Louie. If you're going to add another Pikmin captain, they have to contrast to Olimar's fairly oblique interpretation of the Pikmin. Louie would be overcautious, Alph is... smart? I've talked to a friend about this when Pikmin 3 came out, what we came up with for sets was that Alph would be experimental, Brittany abusive and selfish, Charlie a heavyweight who throws around Rock Pikmin and so on. Out of the three, I always preferred the idea of Charlie over the other two, just because he'd be a heavyweight to highly contrast with Olimar's relative lightness. And who doesn't love a heavyweight?

Alph is maybe the Pikmin newcomer I'd least like to see, besides Brittany. Not that I particularly want any Pikmin newcomer, Olimar does the job all too well, he covers the span of all three games and has a great set.

Bowser Castle Siege:

20% Chance and Want: I've seen this level so much in Mario games I'm honestly sick of it, it was only fun the first, I dunno, ten times it appeared. In Smash it'd basically constitute another scrolling stage, For a Bowser stage, I'd like something a bit more straightforward, Bowser's not exactly known for his great movement and ability to traverse Rumble Falls. A stoic little stage based on his Mario 3 fight, or simply a phase in the Galaxy stage is enough.

Magolor Prediction: 2%
Another Kirby newcomer is not going to be popular. Everyone knows the recurring Kirby characters, among them is not Magolor.
Fatal Frame Prediction: 0.2%
Last I heard this was a franchise struggling to get translated and the fans were trying to get FF4 in English. Maybe a fan or two will lift the score.

Arino (Retro Game Master) x5
 
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Depressed Gengar

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Alph Chances: 5%. I'm going to need something special for this... oh, and what perfect timing! There he is!
A wild @ Gunla Gunla appeared!
@ Depressed Gengar Depressed Gengar used Thief!
Got away safely!
What did I steal? The logic bullet, of course!
LOGIC BULLET ENGAGE.
First, a second Pikmin character is unlikely, mainly because there is little demand for it, plus there isn't any other notable All-Stars left. Second, his only purpose would be to serve as a last-minute semi-clone. But why on Earth would Alph of all things get in before more popular and important characters such as Dixie or Dark Samus who could also fill such roles? This isn't even mentioning characters such as these may not even join the fray, since Sakurai is trying to be Mr. Uniqueness this time. Last, he has to compete with the more popular Louie.
Want: Also 5%. Wings and Rock pick my interest, but overall? How about no.
Bowser's Castle Chances: 80%. I'm honestly surprised this wasn't in 64.
Want: 90%. So much amazing music would fit perfectly here.
Magolor: 3.4%
Fatal Frame: 2.1%
Dedede Arena X2
Leif X3
 
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BlitznBurst

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Messages
723
Alph chances: 20%.
Want: 30%. I love Pikmin, it's one of my favourite games of all time, and Pikmin 3 was even better. But while one part of me would love to play as the other captains, I don't really want a second character to represent a franchise that is already perfectly represented by just Olimar.

Bowser's Castle chances: 60%. Castle stages are some of the most iconic level tropes in the Mario games, and a stage based on them would have plenty of elements that would make for a fun, hectic and atmospheric stage. But then it's not like this wasn't the case for any of the previous games either, and look what we got. Still, previous games have had a large amount of Mario stages, and there's no rule that all the stages have to represent the latest game or whatever. So I'd say it's maybe slightly above a 50/50 chance.

Want: 100%. Honestly, why hasn't this happened yet? A Bowser's Castle stage would be absolutely badass. Fireballs, lava pools, bullet bills, thwomps, even a bridge with a conveniently placed axe at the end - there's no limit to all the stuff they could do with this, and pitting Mario and Bowser against each other while all this **** goes on in the background is possibly the greatest opportunity ever, especially now we're on the Wii U and are no longer bogged down by limited hardware or ****ty art direction. So yeah. I want a Bowser's Castle stage.

Magolor prediction: 2%.

Gangplank Galleon X5
 

Mega Bidoof

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Alph Chance: 7.5%
A Pikmin newcomer is completely unnecessary, and is out-prioritized by many other newcomers. If one does manage to make it in, I would see it being a whole "Drake's Crew" instead.

Alph Want: 5%
We don't need no Pikmin newcomer.


Bowser's Castke Chance: 65%
This is just one of this iconic stages that NEEDS to happen.
Why hasn't it happened yet? I see this as one of the most likely stages, maybe with two different versions (3D World or Classic version on WiiU, 3D Land or New Super Mario on 3DS)

Bowser's Castle Want: 95%
Gimme.


Magolor Prediction: 1.5%
If we go along the one-shot character route, which is already unlikely itself, we would probably get Galacta Knight or Marx first.

Fatal Frame Prediction: 0.1%
Why even? Out of all the third party series, why this? It's not like it's this big beloved game that originated on Nintendo consoles! It's not? I haven't even heard of it until I looked it up 5 seconds ago!


Nomination: X5 Sandbag
 

Chandeelure

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Magolor Prediction: 1.5%
If we go along the one-shot character route, which is already unlikely itself, we would probably get Galacta Knight or Marx first.
They are not one-shot characters:

Magolor is the main villain in Kirby's Return to Dreamland, has a minigame in Kirby's Dream Collection and a lot of cameos (like 4) in Triple Deluxe.

Galacta Knight appears in Kirby Super Star Ultra, Return to Dreamland and has a cameo in Triple Deluxe.

Marx appears in Kirby Super Star, Kirby Super Star Ultra and has a lot of cameos (Squeak Squad, Mass Attack, Return to Dreamland, Dream Collection and Triple Deluxe).
 

BluePikmin11

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Da fuq are these ratings. They are unfairly low here.
Alph chance: 15% Like any other semi clone this guy actually has a good chance of being a semi clone in the fame. Pikmin 3 was such a better game than the last two, I would argue that Alph should've replaced Olimar.

Alph Want: His game is really under looked just because it's new, it's a masterpiece to me in my opinion and Alph deserves to be in this game as playable. So I give him a 100% in want.

Nominations:
x5 Alph Brittany Charlie
 
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Cheezey Bites

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Why even? Out of all the third party series, why this?
Because it's not exactly third party...

While it started out that way Nintendo now co-owns the franchise and publish the newer games. As Nintendo's only horror franchise it's worth considering if they will reference it. I haven't voted characters or stages because they just won't happen, but music is not entirely unreasonable, and there's even a minuscule chance of trophies or an item (the camera). I don't expect much higher than you tbf, but I think it'd make an interesting discussion.



Alph:

Chance: 0.5%
Rock and Winged pikmin give him a little touch, but Louie out-ranks him.

Want: 0%
An Olimar is fine too.


Bowser's Castle:

Chance: 45%
There are 2 games, and it's an iconic area.... but so is pretty much any Mario area... I think the two games however is the crutch it needs, it allows more traditional Mario areas to be explored, and thus gives Bowser's Castle a big boost.. but I still don't think it crosses over the 50% mark just because of how many iconic mario areas there are.

Want: 100%
The music selection alone would be fantastic, the area is iconic, and for once people actually want a Lava area! I'm in!



Magalor: 1.6%
Boss material... and even then Wispy Woods is a thing...

Fatal Frame: 0.6%
I don't understand the people going 2% and up (Especially Toxicroaker's 15%! I wish I could be that optomistic!), I love Project Zero, and think with the Wii U gamepad this is the best time for Nintendo to show off that franchise... and I'm rating it's chance 6.2%... FF is just too creepy for smash bros. I wish it weren't, and I wish it could honestly be up there as a Nintendo all-star franchise, but it is barely Nintendo and not even a Playstation All-Star where it originated from...


Slime*5
(Slime back my blubbly raters!)
 
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Mega Bidoof

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They are not one-shot characters:

Magolor is the main villain in Kirby's Return to Dreamland, has a minigame in Kirby's Dream Collection and a lot of cameos (like 4) in Triple Deluxe.

Galacta Knight appears in Kirby Super Star Ultra, Return to Dreamland and has a cameo in Triple Deluxe.

Marx appears in Kirby Super Star, Kirby Super Star Ultra and has a lot of cameos (Squeak Squad, Mass Attack, Return to Dreamland, Dream Collection and Triple Deluxe).
Yeah, but you know what I mean when I say "one-shot."

I mean characters who has a decent role in one game, but possibly made cameos later on, and they are mostly known for that game they were big in.
 

FalKoopa

Rainbow Waifu
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Oh boy, I completely forgot about the Chance charts. They'll come tomorrow, when I'm free and I'll take a break from playing Radiant Dawn.

Alph:
Likelihood: 5%
His chances died on the day Olimar was revealed. His only hope is that the Rock and Winged Pikmin are nowhere to be seen, so maybe Sakurai is saving them for Alph.

Want: 0%
I'm not too big on more Pikmin representation, sorry.

Bowser's Castle: 29%
Bowser's Castle is one of the most iconic locations in the Mario series, and it's a shame that it hasn't been included yet. I think it has a good chance this time.

Want: 100%
Yes please. I'd love to fight in a lava filled cavern that isn't from Metroid.

Magolor prediction: 1.9%
He was defeated by Bandana Dee, in his own game, as well as in his chances for Smash.
Fatal Frame/Spirit Camera prediction: 2%
I have ZERO knowledge about the series, so I just threw out a number.

Wild Gunman x 5
 

OcarinaOfDoom

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Alph: 1%
Want: 0%
BC: 35%
want: 100%
Magolor: 1.35%
F Frame: 2.3%
Omastar x 5
 

Cheezey Bites

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I have ZERO knowledge about the series, so I just threw out a number.
I can't tell if you got really lucky with an unintended pun or are pulling our leg?

For those who don't get it (everyone), Fatal Frame is known as Project Zero is europe, and just 'Zero' in Japan.
 
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BlitznBurst

Smash Ace
Joined
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Messages
723
Magolor is pretty much Marx except not. And in that case I'd ratehr just have Marx
 
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