Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Deleted member]

Bomberman's chance score dropped? I expected that. But his want score increased? That makes me happy!

Bayonetta and Ike have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated Ike before, check back on his day to see what score you have given him!

Bayonetta
Chance: 0%
I know that Sakurai met with Kamiya before, but their reason for their meeting is unknown. I doubt it was to put Bayonetta in Smash. Bayonetta is a third party character whose sequel wouldn't exist without Nintendo. However, there is one thing to consider:
The third party characters that get in Smash are special cases who are in leagues of their own.
Is Bayonetta in a league of her own? Is she as legendary as Sonic and Mega Man? …No. That's all I can say really…
Well, that and I read that Bayonetta was excluded in Sonic & Sega All-Stars Racing Transformed, but she was considered. The reason? She could have increased the game's rating. Call me stupid for asking this, but is she too sexy or too mature for Smash?
Want: 0%
I never played Bayonetta, though I should sometime. I think that game is similar to Okami, is it? (and I love Okami!) Since I haven't played her game, I can't say that I want her.

WE LIKE IKE!
Chance: 90%
2% increase from before. A bit minor, but my opinions haven't changed a bit.
Ike was featured in 2 Fire Emblem games, something that few lords have accomplished. (even something Roy hasn't accomplished!) His popularity is what helped him get in Brawl and his popularity is still rather strong in my eyes. I can't see him in danger of getting cut due to his popularity and dedicated fanbase alone. Heck, Ike fans and Chrom fans are still fighting over if Ike will get cut and Chrom will replace him. I can only say that Ike would be in danger of getting cut if the series wasn't at a high right now thanks to Awakening.
Want: 100%
45% increase from before.
I am not really pulling for Ike and while I haven't played any Fire Emblem games before, I still like him. I think it's mostly because of his quotes that make me like him. I just hope that his attacks won't be freaking powerful like they were in Brawl.

Mona Prediction: 2.90%
She'll get some 0s, 1s, and 5s thanks to Ashley getting disconfirmed.

Nominations: NOW IT'S REYN TIME! 5x
Get used to that until he gets rated.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Bayonetta:
Chance - 3%: Believe it or not, under technicality, she's still 3rd Party. And being third party, she has to deal with the likes of Pac-Man, Simon, Rayman, Layton, Snake, and yes, even Bomberman to get a shot. Sorry, she ain't getting in. Not to mention her hair is what makes her attack, and every attack using her hair temporarily removes part of her clothes (her final smash could essentially make her Naked! - too much for Smash).
Want: 10% - Could go either way, but would prefer she stay outside in the cold with Travis.

The Leader of the Greil Mercenaries:
Chance: 85% - I see him almost a guaranteed return, but he's like Roy - he has a chance to be cut. He's a fan favorite, yes yes, but he's got the second fiddle role - he's behind Marth. I see him one of the more likely cuts, behind Snake, Wolf, and PKMN Trainer - If anyone is cut.

WHOOPS ALMOST FORGOT WANT
Want: 100% - One of my faves in Brawl.

Mona Pizza: 2.65%

Noms: Sora x3
Alexandra Roivas x2

 

[Pacack]

Bayonetta:

Chance: .6%
I do not expect her at all, but Sakurai's visiting Platinum brings up a couple questions.

Want: 0%
Actively do not want.

Ike:

Chance: 75%
I'm not as confident as many here are about Ike. I still think that it's more likely for him to stay than be cut, but I would understand it considering that we've lost Roy and Mewtwo. Roy being the secondary FE rep (behind Marth) and Mewtwo being a character with a unique moveset.

Want: 50%
He's the only swordsman that I never really liked playing as, so I would not be terribly upset to see him go so long as FE got a new representative. I don't want to have to deal with a lot of people here if he gets cut, though.

Mona Prediction: 13.55%
Expecting something similar to Tom Nook or Black Shadow. Could be added, but not at all a necessity.

Noms: Diskun

 

[Megadoomer]

Bayonetta
Chance: 1%
While Sakurai has met with Kamiya at some point, and Kamiya's said that he'd like to see Bayonetta in Smash Bros., I don't really see it happening. Even though the original game was met with lots of critical acclaim, it doesn't come across as "legendary" like Metal Gear, Sonic, or Mega Man.
Want: 60%
That said, I'd like to see the character in Smash Bros. Anarchy Reigns showed that the character can be toned down and still work, and Bayonetta making a cameo in the Wonderful 101 seems to indicate that she's more of a Platinum Games character than a Sega one. I'd like to see more of a variety when it comes to third party representatives - I never would have expected that Snake would make it into Smash Bros., but I got into his entire franchise because of it. Plus, given how combo-heavy and over-the-top the game is, I'd think she'd be fun to play as.

Ike
Chance: 85%
I'll be the first to admit that I know nothing about Fire Emblem, but unlike Roy in Melee, Ike is a unique character in terms of his moveset. Of the cuts that Sakurai's made, the majority of them are clones (and he seems to regret having cut Mewtwo, since he's apparently considering the option of him returning), so I can't see him cutting a character with a unique moveset, even if Ike isn't as relevant as he was when Brawl was released.
Want: 50%
I'm pretty much indifferent towards Ike - whether he gets in or gets cut, it won't really affect my enjoyment of the game. Maybe if I found the Fire Emblem games that he was in, that would change, but I have no strong feelings one way or the other.

 

[Chandeelure]

Chandelure and SeththeMage, who both predicted 0%, win extra noms, as do I, who predicted .06%. Use them wisely.

:0 !
Why?
It's random? because a lot of users writed 0 in chance and want.
Also...
How many extra noms I won? 10?
Sorry for the questions XD

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Bayonetta

Chance: 0%

Want: 0%

Kamiya himself said it was stupid

 

[Pacack]

Just added noms to my post, Groose. Forgot about it for a second there.

 

[Deleted member]

:0 !
Why?
It's random? because a lot of users writed 0 in chance and want.
Also...
How many extra noms I won? 10?
Sorry for the questions XD

You win 5 extra nominations. So, you can give a maximum of 10 nominations today.

 

[Chandeelure]

-Bayonetta:
Chances:1%
Want:50%

-Ike:
Chances:85%
Want:95%

-Mona prediction:3%

-Nominations (extra nominations included): Saki X10

 

[Gunla]

BayoHELL YEAH!
The Facts
-Nintendo and Platinum seem to be buddies.
-Bayonetta 2 is Wii U exclusive
The Issues
-Third Party. Behind Pac-Man.
-Has Platinum always been a long time Nintendo supporter?
-Bayonetta 1 wasn't Nintendo.
-Not really well requested.
When these things are compared...
-Platinum has a minimal shot of getting a third party, but a better shot than most.
-Pac-Man murders all. Except Bomberman and Snake.
Overall Score: 3.2%

Want: 200000% 100%- Bayonetta has one of the most badass designs I've ever seen. Do I want this in my Smash if I could get it? HELL YES. I loved Bayonetta because of how awesome it was. FOOTGUNS!

Ike-WHAT? WHY?
The Facts
-Fire Emblem is likely getting 3 Slots at the LEAST.
-Ike is insanely popular, well requested...
-Is to what Marth is to Japan. In other words, Ron Burgundy. His beloved status above Chrom makes it a completely horrific decision to cut him.
-
The Issues
-Fire Emblem has a teeny tiny chance of not getting 3 slots.
-Chrom is his one true competitor. However, it's still been seen that Ike is still a big deal.
-While the Fire Emblem recency character slot could be represented by Ike... there's a big thing called love for a character.
When Comparing These Together...
-Ha. No. Chrom getting replaced by Ike is an example of MUHRECENCY. An arguement that I've got enough Logic Ammo to violently murder 6 times over.
-Ike is not a complete shoo-in, but he is reaallllyyy close to one.
-Marth is the beloved FE character in Japan. Ike is the same for America. We're likely getting a new slot for Fire Emblem soon. Like hell we're losing an icon.

Overall Chance: 95%

Want- 100%- I like Ike.

Mona
Predicting 4.5%. No explanation.

Who gets my Nominations Today?
MORE REYN TIME X5

 

[Golden Icarus]

Bayonetta
Chance 1%
There's a lot of competition for 3rd parties, and despite Platinum Games' partnership with Nintendo, she's still not much of a special case. She's also not that big of a deal, because one game and an upcoming release doesn't exactly make you legendary. Not to mention the mature-ness of her character, and how Wonder Red (another Platinum creation) would fit the game better.
Want 5%
I haven't played her game, and I don't see that much appeal in her character.


Chance 70%
I'd say he's got a lot of things going for him like being a unique character, starring in multiple games, and having a large fan base in Fire Emblem and Smash Bros. But there's still a pretty good chance he'll be replaced by an Awakening protagonist, because he no longer has "muh recency".
Want 100%

Mona Prediction 3%

Nominations
Jimmy T. x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Bayonetta

Chance - 0.05% - Sakurai going to Platinum may be going for her, but I wouldn't read too much into it. Personally, I just think he wanted to get his hands on 101, which, coincidently, is what I think her main flaw is. If Sakurai wanted someone from Platinum, Wonder Red is within so much easier reach, and could realistically do the same things as her, that I'm not certain why he would go after such a hard to obtain character.

Want - 15% - Meh. I like my fan-service to be nostalgia based, and like I said I think Wonder Red could perform many of the same concepts. She's also too new to be of the legendary status of the third parties already in game in my opinion. Not worth the effort, in my eyes.


Ike

Chance - 97% - A twinge higher than before. While I consider it a possibility that IS may demand he be put lower on the list due to Chrom, as I view Chrom as less likely these days Ike has a few points ahead.

Want - 100% - Don't like cuts in general, and Ike is no exception.


Mona Prediction - 5.5% - I'm expecting an "optimism boost" due to Ashley being an assist trophy.

Nominations
Kirby's Epic Yarn Stage X5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Bayonetta
Chance: 3% - Kamiya apparently got really angry at Smash fans on Twitter for constantly asking him if Bayonetta was going to be in. He may not as into the idea as a lot of people think.
Want: 3% - For a Platinum games rep, I'd prefer Wonder Red.

Ike
Chance: 60% - I see him as being the second most likely character to be cut after Snake. He is not nearly as popular as people on these forums seem to think he is. Most Smash fans that I've seen outside of Smashboards (such as Gamefaqs and YouTube) don't seem to care if he's cut. He's still very likely, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he were removed in favour of Roy, an Awakening rep, or even both.
Want: 50% - He's okay.

Mona prediction: 1.4%

Nominations: Dr. Mario stage x5

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Bayonetta Likelihood: 1%
Want: 55%

Ike Likelihood: 95%
Want: 50%

Mona: 3.55%

Wrestler x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Bayonetta's chances: 1% - If we were to get someone from Platinum, it'd more likely be Wonder Red, and he's not that likely himself.
Want: 10% - Not that interested.

Ike's chances: 85% - If we get three FE reps I'd say he's in without a doubt. If we don't...He's still got the best shot, imo. Veteran, still fairly popular, and is one of the few FE characters to be a main character in more than one game. Still, there is a small chance that he would get replaced by Roy or an Awakening lord.
Want: 100% - We like Ike! We like Ike! We like Ike! He's my third favorite of the Brawl newcomers (Diddy and Lucario are ahead of him).

Mona prediction: 2.66%

Mewtwo x5. Gonna re-nominate some of the characters we rated early on.

 

[PK_Wonder]

Bayonetta - 33%
Ike - 70%

predict - 1.2%

Black Mage x5

 

[Starbound]

Bayonetta: 0% Chance / 0% Want
Ike: 60% Chance / 0% Want

 

[FalKoopa]

Bayonetta:
Chance: 2%
Nintendo getting the exclusive publishing rights to Bayonetta is the only reason she is on the charts.

Want: 0%
I don't hate her, but I have little desire to see her in SMash, especially with the bright and colourful art style Smash 4 is going for.

Ike:
Chance: 80%
Ike continues to be relevant, with the Smash Brethren DLC, and Priam as examples. Plus, he's the most popular lord in the west, and the most significant lord in the series, after Marth. The chances of him getting replaced by an Awakening characeter

Want: 100%
Don't you dare cut Ike, Sakurai. He is one of my mains, and since my brother uses Marth, we often have MArth vs. Ike (aka Fire Emblem) matches. And, I recently got to play Path of Radiance, cementing my love for Ike.

Mona: 1.5%

6 Mario characters x 5

 

[NickerBocker]

Bayonetta
Chance: 0.5%
Want: 0%

The only reason she doesn't get a big fat goose egg is because of Platinum and Nintendo's relationship.

Ike
Chance: 80%
Want: 100%

It's unfortunate, but Ike does have a chance that he's not coming back. There are a few characters who are currently on the chopping block, and Ike is one of them. characters that I think have a chance to be cut are:

• Ike
• Snake
• Pokemon Trainer

And to a lesser extent:

• Lucas
• Wolf
• Lucario

Sakurai will attempt to keep cuts to a minimal, but it will be difficult to avoid. 39 different characters in Brawl, there is gonna be at least one that will be skipped over. Ike is in a strange position.

Cons:

• FE has a history of having Marth plus one other Lord, who has typically been the newest one. Looking at that information, Chrom should be the next in line should this theory be correct.
  
• Recency is a factor that needs to be taken into account when talking FE

Pros:

• Smash roster expansion may have 3 slots for FE, Ike shouldn't be cut after that
• FE has grown in popularity due to Awakening, so again, 3 slots is possible
• Popular
• unique moveset (something Sakurai seems to be going for this time.)

In conclusion, the chance is there that he wont return, but it is severely outweighed by the pros that he possesses

Mona: 3.14%

Nominations
Snake x5

 

[loganhogan]

BayoNaughty!
Chance? 66.66%

Just messing with ya!
Real chance:
13% That mysterious visit, and the exclusive definitely opens the possibility but not so much if you ask me. If her game succeeds and she eventually gets more exclusives or more games on Nintendo consoles, like Kamiya hinted, i'd consider her a stronger option for the next smash brothers. Just in case I give that 13% for the potential of some Snake-like entrance to Smash bros.

want: 66.66%

Ike
Chance 80%
I'm subtracting 20% because he's not exactly guaranteed, but I don't think he's really going to be cut either.
want: 33%

predict 8%

Isa Jo x2
Sheriff x2
Wrestler x1

 

[Toxicroaker]

I updated the music section to include Mega Man, Villager, and Wii Fit Trainer. I will add Bayonetta soon...

Bayonetta: 0.3%
Want: 0%

Ike: 80%

I see the chances we get three fire emblem reps as 85%. I think that we will be seeing Ike again, but I will give him a 90%. That gives us a 95% chance of having a newcomer. Here are my percents of all Fire Emblem characters based on that.

Marth: 100%
Ike: 90%
Chrom: 30%
Robin: 22%
Roy: 20%
Lucina: 15%
Lyn: 3%
Other Past Lord: 2%
Anna: 2%
Other: 1%

Ike: 80%
Want: 80%

x5 Leon (I could still use some help nominating him)

It's unfortunate, but Ike does have a chance that he's not coming back. There are a few characters who are currently on the chopping block, and Ike is one of them. characters that I think have a chance to be cut are:

• Ike
• Snake
• Pokemon Trainer

Someone finally agrees that Pokemon Trainer can be cut!? YESZ

 

[NickerBocker]

Someone finally agrees that Pokemon Trainer can be cut!? YESZ

Yes, you're not the only one. without going into too much detail, it basically boils down to a lot of work for little payout. The process for developing PT is at LEAST the time it takes to make 4+ characters, mostly thanks to the time needed to balance them, not only between themselves, but as a whole and then between everything else. So by sacrificing him, you basically free up a lot more time to develop new characters. Personally, dropping PT and re adding Charizard makes a lot of sense to me, even if its not the most popular choice.

Theres people saying hes the most important pokemon character, but the fact of the matter is you play pokemon for the pokemon, and not the person youre controlling. Pokemon isnt what it is today because of "Pokemon Trainer"

 

[Capybara Gaming]

I had to add want for Ike earlier @ Groose . Everything should be proper now.

 

[Shotguner159]

Bayonetta Chance: 1%
Want 0%

Ike:
Chance: 95%. If Sakurai doesn't like cuts, and they have much more time to work on getting characters into the game without Subspace, I don't see any planned character getting scrapped, and given that Ike is still the most popular Lord in the West, he's getting planned for the game. No reason for him not to be in, unfortunately.
Want: 0%. I still dislike Ike, and I still don't want him in the game.

 

[Jubileus57]

Bayonetta Chances: 15% I'm optimistic by nature. Sakura's pic of Platinum Games' front desk give me some hope she'll make it. Let's believe!

Bayonetta Want: 100% I could give her much much more if it wasn't a mathematical impossibility.

Ike Chances: 65%
Ike Want: 80% My sister would be sad if her main did not get in.

Mona Prediction: 5%

Prince Fluff x5

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Bayo: Double zeroes.
Ike: 90%
Want: 100%
Mona: 6.5%
Yarne Owain x 5

 

[Rouge]

Bayonetta: 0.9% - Very unlikely
Want: 50%

Ike: 80% - Even though Ike is an original, popular veteran, so was Mewtwo. He's not a shoo-in, but his chances are great nonetheless.
Want:

100%

Mona: 7.2%

Panther x 5

 

[Aqua Rock X]

BAYONETTA

Chance: 0% - She 's not a legendary third party.

Want: 0% - Not for this game.

IKE

Chance: 90% - Pretty much at the forefront of Fire Emblem characters after Marth.

Want: 95% - I want all Brawl veterans back.

Mona Prediction: 1.34% - Blind guess.

Nominations:
Tetris Stage x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Ike Chance: 75% I think he's has a good chance of coming back.
Ike Want: 25% Though I admit I'm seriously indifferent from Ike, I don't really care if he gets cut. Just give me Anna already
Bayonetta Chance: 3.5%
Bayonetta Want: 45% I admit it's better than Dixie Kong when it comes to hair-based playstyle.
Mona Prediction: 1.7% Some people will think a Warioware character is on dead chances.
Nominations:
x5 Harry

 

[Starcutter]

Bayoneted 5%
Want 0%

Like 95%
Want:100%

Noms stork x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Bayonetta
Chance: HMMM.

Okay, so Bayonetta is a fanservice heavy character(to the point of parody). But then so is Zero Suit Samus.

She uses guns and is from a mature game. But so does Snake, and look how they changed him up so he fit.

Honestly the biggest thing against her is that she's a third party, and whilst popular pales pathetically in comparison to the legendary status of Mario, Sonic, Link and Megaman. Newcomer wise she's got Pac-Man, probably the most well known video game character of ALL TIME(that is not currently in Smash) to compete with as well as other super popular individuals like Bomberman and Rayman.

Bayonetta also isn't even the most legendary female video game character of all time. Lara Croft claims that title, but at least Bayonetta is more likely than her.

Overall; Chance is probably 6%. That's based on the trip to Platinum pretty much only, otherwise she'd be a 5.9% lower.

Want: 0%

Again, and nothing against Bayonetta fans, but I only want legendary 3rd parties right now; Pac-Man first and foremost, Bomberman and Rayman at a push.
Bayonetta doesn't have the nostalgia value of these guys, nor should she be considered whilst there are still decent Nintendo characters missing out on a place in this Nintendo "All Star" fighter. Gender be damned.

Ike
Chance: 85%
I'm fairly confident that the most popular lord of the west will return, but I was equally confident there was no way Mewtwo would be cut in Brawl or that Wii Fit Trainer would ever be a thing.

He's popular, has two games under his belt, an ancestor in Priam in Awakening, and some Smash related DLC alongside Roy.

Want: 100%
With Toad out, I want Ike more. Seems illogical, but Toad, Isaac and Ike were the three characters my sister wanted, thus if only one gets in she'll have her main.

Personally I don't care THAT much for Ike, but I much prefer him to pretty boy Marth. Ideally if we can get Roy(possibly as DLC) and Ike, I can spend many a fun hour co-oping with Fire Emblems.

I wish I had more to say for this fan favourite who has appealed to many of my fellow Smashboarders, but all my want is just for the sake of another.

Mona prediction: 4%
Ashley didn't make it, despite being THE fan favourite. Mona's a bigger deal to Warioware though so she's probably a darkhorse candidate.

Nominations:
Let's try something totally new:

X 5: Playable Bosses

Yeah, that's right. Playable bosses in boss mode. IMAGINE IT.

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Just a quick note for those who don't know: Bayonetta is owned by Sega, not Platinum

edit: Wonder Red however, is owned by Nintendo iirc.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Doesn't automatically mean we should give Bayonetta a 0% though.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Just a quick note for those who don't know: Bayonetta is owned by Sega, not Platinum

edit: Wonder Red however, is owned by Nintendo iirc.

Hmmm. So in other words; Bayonetta is in the same position as Bomberman?

A big(ish) name overshadowed as a company representative by a veteran 3rd party character.

 

[Groose]

No update now. Just swinging by to drop off my two cents. Notice how much longer my posts are when I actually have time to write up all of my thoughts.

Bayonetta Chance: 7.5%
This is mostly just covering myself because there is evidence to suggest she'll make it. Sakurai visited Platinum and the company seems to be getting on well with Nintendo as of late. There are two characters Platinum knows well that coil potentially be included: Wonder Red and Bayonetta.

Now, Wonder Red would seemingly have the edge because he actually belongs to Nintendo, and he fits in better with the atmosphere of Smash. Even so, I think there is a large chance that he would have been revealed if he were in the game; his title already released, and it absolutely floundered. I think they would have Smash-promoted him if they could have done so.

Because Wonder Red's chances don't look so good, it is possible that Bayonetta was chosen instead. This could be a choice to pull in a more nature audience, much like her game itself and Snake in Brawl. Still, I'm not sure she has what it takes: with only one game yet on the market, she's not exactly legendary. As mentioned above she's not the greatest fit for a Smash game, much less so than even Snake.

I don't expect her in this game. I can barely even envision a scenario where she's in this game. However, she has some evidence pointing towards her, so I'll give her a small, but respectable score.

Bayonetta Want: 0%
Never played her first game, though I've heard it's epic. I simply dislike her because she seems to me to epitomize what's wrong with gaming: the focus on graphics, sexualization, real time events, "super mature" titles. I've never played her game, but these are the impressions I get on the outside looking in. I'd probably warm up to her a bit after seeing her in Smash, but as of right now I have absolutely no desire to see her.

Ike Chance: 60%
Sakurai said that they didn't have time to return all of the characters. I expect cuts, and I believe it's foolish to expect otherwise. Of potential cuts, Ike is perhaps the most likely. I don't really subscribe much to "MUHRELEVANCY" but there are others who do, especially in this situation. You see people demanding Awakening characters in droves, and it makes sense to include one because it's the most globally popular entry in the history of the series. Marth was obviously returning, and it's quite likely that an Awakening character (probably Chrom, but he has competition) gets in; it's very possible that Ike gets pushed back and and doesn't make it.

I'd say there are three situations that have about 25-30% chance each:
1) Marth and Ike
2) Marth and Awakening Character
3) Marth, Ike, and Awakening Character

Then the remaining 10-25% involve working in Roy and other situations.

Overall, I expect Ike. Even so, I wouldn't be too surprised if he were cut.

Ike Want: 50%
I'm Switzerland. He was OK in Brawl, though above only Toon Link, Wolf, and Lucas in terms of intriguing newcomers. I know he has a fanbase and I personally don't mind him. However, I'd rather a more...unique... FE character.

Mona: 3.86%
Ashley always had more popularity here, and I think that her deconfirmation has shaken all hope in getting a WarioWare newcomer, rather than whittling down the choices for people as other deconfirmations have.

Dr. Mario Stage x 5
I dream of having one of these. Soon, we will rate it!

:0 !
Why?
It's random? because a lot of users writed 0 in chance and want.
Also...
How many extra noms I won? 10?
Sorry for the questions XD

No, it goes by way you predicted the day before. Two people predicted scores of 0% (you and Seth), and I predicted a score of 0.06%. It landed right in the middle.

Everyone else had predictions in the 0.3%-1% range because they were expecting one or two people to say he actually had a chance. Unfortunately, the miracle never happen.

Just a quick note for those who don't know: Bayonetta is owned by Sega, not Platinum

edit: Wonder Red however, is owned by Nintendo iirc.

Fully aware of it. However, I've always subscribed to the belief that two characters from the same third-party are possible because having one third-party in shows that they are in negotiations with Nintendo. Also, this is not a Bomberman situation; SEGA perfectly well knows Bayonetta and may push for her whereas Konami has squandered Bomberman since absorbing and restructuring Hudson.

 

[Xenigma]

Bayonetta - 1%
Let's get the faults out of the way first. She's a third party character, one from a company that already has a rep in Sonic. Her first game wasn't available on a Nintendo console and the Wii U-exclusive sequel doesn't even have a release date yet. She's arguably too mature for Smash since she's pretty deliberately designed for sex appeal, uses lots of guns, and even gets naked when using her more powerful attacks. Platinum has an arguably more viable Smash candidate available in Wonder Red. Finally, Kamiya has been downright negative about the idea of Bayonetta being in Smash on Twitter in the past (though this is largely due to fans badgering him about the idea repeatedly).

So why 1%? Because there is a scenario where it's plausible, albeit a narrow one. Considering Sakurai's fabled visit to Platinum, it's believable that Sakurai and Kamiya could be friends, and with Bayonetta 2 being a pretty important upcoming Wii U release, it could make a lot of sense for her to be added to Smash to promote her own game. It's not like she couldn't be tuned down to fit into a T-rated game, and she has tons of moveset potential to work with if given the chance. I don't at all expect it to happen, but who knows?

Want - 75% - Can't rate this too highly since her inclusion could push out a more important third party, but considering she comes from a (really fun) action game, she would probably translate really well to the Smash world. This is a surprise I could definitely go for.

Ike - 80%
Really, the only reason I can think of for Ike being cut for SSB4 is Chrom stealing his spot and moveset, and that seems like a fairly unlikely scenario. He's got plenty of pros: he has a unique moveset, was not a secret character in Brawl, was a main character in two FEs, and has plenty of ongoing popularity. Oh, and he has the best crowd chant in the game (WE LIKE IKE!), though I suppose that doesn't really change his chances. Considering Fire Emblem as a franchise is only growing, I'd peg him as a very likely returner with an Awakening newcomer appearing for a third FE slot. Will be quite surprised if he's not in.
Want - 85% - WE LIKE IKE! Also, he's really fun to play.

Mona - 2.25%
Ashley being disconfirmed ought to ensure any other Warioware character's chances plummet accordingly, excluding Wario himself of course.

Nominations
Shulk x5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Naked Witch Lady:

Chance: 0.01%
If Travis Touchdown is too mature, so is she, but much like Travis, with a few more titles under her belt she may well get a shot in a later smash.

Want: 0%
Her game was fun for the most part, a bit overdrawn and the pointless fan service got in the way of the really decent beat-em-up parts... but honestly I don't want. I still don't associate her with Nintendo, and she's too mature... she just doesn't fit... Travis would be better far a 'mature' (by which I mean rating, not actual content) rep.


Ike:

Chance: 95%
Not a lock, but not far off... and the only reason I put him down that low is because he's second party... Sakurai doesn't want cuts, and Ike is a popular, and still important, lord in the FE universe... I don't see him going anywhere... plus who else would be the ******* sword rep?
This is up 3% from last time because I'm less trusting of Awakening getting a rep getting in...

Want: 75%
FE fatigue has affected that badly, but I like him as a character and he is known for using a ******* sword; I can't think of any other (reasonable) character who does, so he's unique. Now, it is odd that in his own game he uses said ******* Sword (almost?) exclusively single handed, and in Smash he uses it 2-handed a lot more often, but still, unique weapon representation, and a cool character to boot... why would I want him to go?


EDIT: apparently smashboards thinks medieval weaponry is offensive...


Mona: 1.54%
I was going to try and write Lisa in numbers, but couldn't pick an L, and the isa part looked reasonable as a nomination.


Pokémon AT*5

 

[Capybara Gaming]

I honestly feel that IF platinum games gets a rep, it's gonna be Wonder Red, who is actually owned by Nintendo, and developed by Platinum.

Wonder Red is the Viewtiful Joe of Nintendo, and would fit great, plus it could be used to advertise the Wonderful 101 even more.

 

[Gunla]

I'd rather have Viewtiful Joe than Wonder Red.
Joe just... fits.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

I'd rather have Viewtiful Joe than Wonder Red.
Joe just... fits.

Still, if we get one of them, it's gonna be Nintendo's. No reason for Capcom to get two reps, and if they do, it's gonna be they're other flagship franchise, Street Fighter.