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Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

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Capybara Gaming

Just Vibing
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Not the most reliable site, I might add. BUT....

Mario and MegaMan have both appeared in fighters before. They're fighting game characters.

So is Link (soulcalibur)

and pikachu

and Samus

and so on

:troll:
 

Gunla

wow, gaming!
BRoomer
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Messages
9,069
Location
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Not the most reliable site, I might add. BUT....

Mario and MegaMan have both appeared in fighters before. They're fighting game characters.

So is Link (soulcalibur)

and pikachu

and Samus

and so on

:troll:
Characters that ORIGINATED in fighting games. :facepalm: IE: Ruby Heart, Cammy, Ryu, Tao, etc.
 

McDuckletts

Smash Ace
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Sexy hair lady
Chance: 0.1%
The only thing that really supports her inclusion is her sequel being a Nintendo exclusive, which will probably change a few months after release. Other than that, she doesn't have much of a chance at all
Want: 5%
I'm not against Bayonetta, but...We already have Zero Suit Samus.

Ike (Mike not included)
Chance: 94%
Ike is pretty much western Marth, so seeing him cut would be kinda stupid.
Want: 80%
I'm cool with Ike. I wasn't very good with him in Brawl, but I still enjoyed playing as him.

Mona prediction: 8.62%

Nom: PT Pokemon (no trainer) X5
 

Headcrab Jackalope

Smash Ace
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Bayonetta

Chance: 1%- She might have a tiny chance, but she's extremely unlikely.
Want: 40%- Never played the Bayonetta games, but she looks kinda cool.

Ike

Chance: 80%- I doubt one of the most popular FE characters would get replaced.
Want: 60%- I like him, but I don't love him.

Mona Prediction

16.7%- I bet she'll do decent.

Nominations

Plasm Wraith x5
 

KingofPhantoms

The Spook Factor
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Bayonetta - 0.3%

The only thing she really has going for her is that the sequel to her first game is going to be exclusive to a Nintendo console, the Wii U. Sakurai has stated third party characters must be "legendary" to join Smash, and Bayonetta is far from legendary. Also,from what I've heard, most of Bayonetta's attacks involve her using her hair, which also functions as her clothing and thus results in her being exposed naked during such hair-based attacks. I can't see Sakurai even considering her because of those two reasons.

She also makes common use of guns, but at least Snake, who also uses guns, was able to bypass that issue for Brawl and uses several explosive weapons instead.

Sakurai's visit to Platinum is really the only thing she has going for her, and I still don't think that helps her chance very much.

Want - 0

Haven't played the first Bayonetta, and though she momentarily strips herself during some attacks, I don't find that very off-putting, heck I might even try the game out sometime. but I don't ever want to see such a character in Smash.

Ike - 85%

Unfortunately Ike may very well be on the possible chopping block due to Fire Emblem gaining many new characters with each game, recency might actually matter in Fire Emblem's case. However, due to the impact Ike made, having become quite popular and gained a large fanbase thanks to Brawl, as well being one of the few lords to appear as a main protagonist in more than one game, I feel he has an excellent chance to return, but sadly he is not a shoo-in.

Want - 100%

I don't know too much about Fire Emblem, but I've still taken a liking to Ike, and I'd be very angry if he failed to make the cut.


Mona Prediction - 12.7%

Dry Bowser x5.
 

LoneKonWolf

Lazy Lonely Lurker☕
Joined
Oct 8, 2013
Messages
3,661
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Somewhere with Coffee
bayonetta - 0.55%
third party from sega, a too far mature standard, and the only thing going off, is sakurai's visit to platiums, which at the same time could just be wonder red, she seems almost impossible honestly
want - 0%
I have always hated characters who main purpose was fan service then actual gameplay, she ranks high on my list and deserves to be no where near smash
ike - 94.75%
honestly, I can't see ike cut, he's the western world's lord, he's the most popular lord out there, he has been In two games as the main character which few has done, and he is keeping relevance with the others, the only way I can see him cut is because of low priority, but were starting to see a bunch of assist and a few bosses, this points that the game is farther along development then we might thought, there is really low chance he could be cut, (heck wolf has a better chance to be cut than ike)
want - 100%
I really like ike, he was In my second fire emblem game, is my favorite character throughout them all, is really fun just to pick up and play and probably one of my most favorite cheers out of all the characters in the game (we like ike, we like ike, we like ike, we like ike....ect)
please don't get rid of this awesome guy sakurai
mona - 5.55
I don't got any idea. . .
nominations:
SakiX5
 
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Chandeelure

Bandana Brigade Captain
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bayonetta - 0.55%
third party from sega, a too far mature standard, and the only thing going off, is sakurai's visit to platiums, which at the same time could just be wonder red, she seems almost impossible honestly
want - 0%
I have always hated characters who main purpose was fan service then actual gameplay, she ranks high on my list and deserves to be no where near smash
ike - 94.75%
honestly, I can't see ike cut, he's the western world's lord, he's the most popular lord out there, he has been In two games as the main character which few has done, and he is keeping relevance with the others, the only way I can see him cut is because of low priority, but were starting to see a bunch of assist and a few bosses, this points that the game is farther along development then we might thought, there is really low chance he could be cut, (heck wolf has a better chance to be cut than ike)
want - 100%
I really like ike, he was In my second fire emblem game, is my favorite character throughout them all, is really fun just to pick up and play and probably one of my most favorite cheers out of all the characters in the game (we like ike, we like ike, we like ike, we like ike....ect)
please don't get rid of this awesome guy sakurai
mona - 5.55
I don't got any idea. . .
nominations:
GodotX5
Who's Godot? XD
You can help me nominating Saki if you want XD
 

Glaciacott

Smash Lord
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Bayonetta
Chance - 0.9%
I'll give her the benefit of the doubt given the whole relationship with Platinum, but frankly this suggestion just screams absurd to me. She doesn't fit, she's not iconic, not Nintendo, not among the most popular or requested ... yea, this would make no sense to me.

Want - 0%
I was clear enough above. It's a stupid inclusion. Of course I don't want it.

Ike
Chance - 80%
It IS possible that some characters get cut from the final game, and I feel Ike is one of those lower priority characters that may not make it. That said, given his unique gameplay and his niche in Brawl, I can see him staying and fulfilling the same, hilariously fun-and-powerful role he has in Brawl.

Want - 80%
I like Ike and would like him to remain. He's a really fun character to use. However, if he was replaced for an Awakening character like Robin, I would not complain as two dudes with swords is less interesting than dude with sword and lady with crazy, powerful magic that can also conceivably use any Fire Emblem weapon.
But still, best-case scenario for me is Marth, Ike and Robin. So it'd be cool if he stayed.

Prediction
Mona 6.7%
I genuinely have no clue

Nominations
x5 Magnus ... almost there!
 

Groose

Smash Champion
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EDIT: apparently smashboards thinks medieval weaponry is offensive...
I feel your pain. I can't post any gifs of Detective Gumshoe because apparently his first name is censored. Poor old Scruffy McTrenchcoat. He always gets the short end of the deal.

DAY OVER

RETURN OF GROOSE
 

Gunla

wow, gaming!
BRoomer
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You guys do realize my Godot want is going to be 100% primarily because of his addiction to coffee, right?
 

Toxicroaker

Smash Lord
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I updated the music section to include Mega Man, Villager, and Wii Fit Trainer. I will add Bayonetta soon...
How to lie on Smashboards: Run out of battery on your computer, lose the charger, and finally get caught up with school and cleaning... I will update after dinner tho.
 

Groose

Smash Champion
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Bayonetta (Bayonetta)
3.03% chance
20.70% want

Poor Bayonetta. She was roughly doubled by her perceived rival Wonder Red in both chance and want. Whereas Wonder Red is sitting just outside the Top 50, she'll slot in at Rank 81.

Ike (Fire Emblem)
82.73% chance (previously 78.58%)
77.59% want (previously 73.48%)

WE LIKE IKE! WE LIKE IKE! WE LIKE IKE! Ike did slightly better than before in both chance and want. Chrom's fall from grace seems to have opened more opportunities for everyone else. Ike passed Pokemon Trainer and Lucario on the chance charts in his rerate, and he's more wanted than either. We like Ike! We like Ike! We like Ike!

Today we're rating Mona. You know, that cheerleader/singer/pizzadeliverygirl/"strange"microgamehost/crushingonwario chick from WarioWare? Yeah. Please rate Mona in chance and want today. In addition, we're rating our very first stage! It took the better part of a month, but ColderThanIce and I have pushed a Dr. Mario stage to the top. Please rate having a Dr. Mario-based stage in likelihood and want.

Tomorrow we're rating the second-most epic Street Fighter character: Ryu. Please predict how Ryu will fare in tomorrow's game. The extra five noms go to FalKoopa and SmashShadow today. And I still have five that I'm saving up...
 

BluePikmin11

Akko is my dear daughter!
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Mona Chance: 1.2%
Mona Want: 10% I prefer Jimmy T.
Dr. Mario Stage Chance: 25%
Dr. Mario Stage Want: 75% I prefer a Tetris stage if was one or the other.
Ryu Prediction: 1.7%
Nominations:
x5 Harry
 

Groose

Smash Champion
Joined
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Messages
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How to lie on Smashboards: Run out of battery on your computer, lose the charger, and finally get caught up with school and cleaning... I will update after dinner tho.
If that's considered lying, then I'm the biggest liar in the world. How many times did I say I would try to update the music section, only for it to be shelved in favor of homework or sleep? Toxicroaker, don't strain yourself to update that music section. No matter what you do with it, you're a huge improvement over me, and you are doing me a great favor.
Just, ah, pal... make sure you add Guile's Theme eventually for Ryu. Because Guile's Theme goes with Ryu, if you know what I mean.

did you try this site?​

Well, expect Ace Attorney style ratings a lot more often from me now, as this site will speed the process up threefold, if not more. Danke schoen!
 

Erotic&Heretic

Smash Master
Joined
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So, about Mona...

Chances: I'd say... fifty would be a bit high... So I'll say 30% (and I still think it's big)
Want: 100% (and more if I could)

Mona is now my 2nd top character, with Ashley being an assist trophy. Mona have some popularity, and a unique design (she got a lot of looks, but her normal outfit is unique. If we can call that a normal outfit). With her jobs, she also can have a lot of moveset possibilities, represent the wackiness of Warioware, steal Wario's bike move with her scooter and give Wario a WarioLand moveset.
Now, the problems are: does having a moveset based on diverses items doesn't look a bit too much G&W and the Villager? And does Wario need a second rep (I think it really need another, but I may be biased)?

About Dr Mario:

Chances: not sure about this one... I'll say 25%
Want: Also 25%

I'd prefer a Tetris stage too.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
I'm glad that we are rating Mona today. Why? Not only is today Smash's 15th Anniversary, but also Wario Land's 20th Anniversary! Happy 20th, Wario!
Mona and Dr. Mario Stage have been added to the Directory.

Mona
Chance:
1%

She's a popular character from the WarioWare games. However, popularity in that franchise can take you so far. Ashley, the supposed most popular Wario character after Wario himself, is now an Assist Trophy. If she didn't get added, then I can't see hope for any other Wario character. Besides, Wario himself reps both WarioWare and Wario Land perfectly.
Other than that, Mona is on par with Pauline, Groose, and Nintendog to me, as well as the other WarioWare characters. Why? Well, they don't have any sort of powers or abilities to create a whole moveset for them. I guess Mona can use her cheerleader stuff, use her scooter, and throw pizzas, though, you still need a creative person to give her a moveset.
Overall, if you're from Wario, or even Yoshi, you're doomed.
Want: 0%
Wario alone is all I need in terms of WarioWare and Wario Land representation.

Dr. Mario Stage
Chance: 10%

Hmm… I dunno if this could happen. Though, Sakurai is a fan of Dr. Mario… maybe he can make a stage for Dr. Mario if he really wanted too and mix some ideas from Dr. Luigi in that stage. It doesn't seem the most obvious thing to get a stage to me. I can't say much on the subject matter.
Want: 65%
Meh, why not? It would give them an excuse to include this again:

Ryu Prediction: .15%
Going low. I think that Sakurai said that characters that originated from fighting games won't get into Smash and we have Mega Man already.

Nominations: NOW IT'S REYN TIME 5x
 
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Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,783
Mona

Chance - 2% - Possible, but very unlikely. Now that Ashley's been disconfirmed, Mona's the front runner for a character from Wario. Still, Wario's fine by himself, and she's not particularly interesting enough that someone would actively suggest her.

Want - 55% - She would be my pick for the next Wario character, but I'm not particularly enthusiastic for her.


Dr. Mario stage

Chance - 8.53% - If the Doc comes back, this has about a 2/3 chance of happening, I'd guess. Otherwise, I'd say it only has a 1/32 chance. Considering that I gave the doc a 8.5% chance, this is about what it came to when you do the math. (Ironic that it seems more likely than the character himself, huh?). The main problem is that this is a kind of a weird pick. The screen would get very cluttered very quickly, and it would probably end up with people fighting the stage more than each other. It's unconventional, at best.

Want - 45% - Not particularly caring. I don't mind gimmicky stages, but I'm particularly worried about how they can make such a stage without having an overly big hazard.


Ryu Prediction - 0.12% - Another third party from the same company. Nope.

Nominations
Epic Yarn Stage X5
 

colder_than_ice

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 7, 2013
Messages
1,331
Mona
Chance: 0% - I honestly don't see Warioware getting a second rep. The side characters basically only serve as player avatars with their own cute little back stories. None of them are developed enough to compete with some of the bigger and more requested characters from other franchises.

Want: 11% - If I had to pick a second Warioware character, I'd pick her without question.

Dr. Mario stage
Since stages are more unpredictable than characters, I'm going to try to divide the chance rating into four categories: popularity, relevancy, potential, and competition within the franchise.

Popularity: The Original Dr. Mario was a huge success and the series has had several new instalments since. Dr. Mario himself was also a playable character in Melee, which shows that Sakurai has definitely acknowledged the series.

Relevancy: The announcement of Dr. Luigi has kept the series relevant.

Potential: I'm not completely certain how a Dr. Mario stage would work. I'd imagine it would involve fighting on several platforms of viruses, and every now and then vitamins would fall from the sky and be added to the stage. If the vitamins colour matched the viruses colour it would cause both to disappear. So the stage would constantly be changing size and reset after a certain time period. Regardless of how it would work, I think there's potential for it to be a unique and fun stage. Unfortunately, it also runs the risk of turning out like Flatzone 2 or Mario bros, where the stage gimmicks are so out of control that it ruins the experience.

Competition within the franchise: It has the benefit of being part of the Mario franchise which has always had the most Stages in every Smash game to date. Unfortunately, three Mario stages have already been revealed: Galaxy, Rainbow Road, and 3D land DS. It may also face competition from Bowser's castle, a Paper Mario themed stage, a Mario Party themed stage, a Mario Sports themed stage, and a few returning Mario stages from previous Smash games. The amount of possible Mario stages are endless.

Overall Chance: 24%

Want: 75% - It can be great if it's done right.

Ryu prediction: 0.15%

Nominations: Gyromite stage x5
 
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Hippopotasauce

Smash Lord
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Hippopotasauce
Mona Likelihood: .5%
Want: 30%

Dr. Mario Stage Likelihood: 12%
Want: 50%

Ryu: 2%

Wrestler x5
 

Toxicroaker

Smash Lord
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Everywhere
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I updated the music section with Bayonetta and Mona

Mona: 8%
Want: 50%

Dr. Mario Stage: 10%
Want: 100% TETRIS!!!

Riu: 0.6%

x5 "I am the great LEON!!!"
Leon should have 15 nominations and 20 after today. He isn't on there at all.
 
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Pacack

Super Pac-Fan
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Mona:

Chance: 10.3%
Wow, surprised to see her rated so slow by others here. (especially that 0%). Sakurai really likes shaking things up, and the Warioware series is a large one. With Jimmy T. possibly being deconfirmed (due to Sakurai's comment on how WFT was the best dancing character he could find) and Ashley's recent deconfirmation, the only real contenders for the Wario spot are her and Captain Syrup (who I just don't see happening). There's nothing in Mona's way when it comes to Wario characters...but, unfortunately, she faces some real competition from characters from other series and she's not terribly popular.

Want: 60%
I like her quite a bit. I prefer Jimmy T. by a longshot, but Mona's really fun too. She's hardly lacking in moveset potential if you get creative, and she's a character that could be really interesting and fun. Not one of my top picks, but she's really cool.

Dr. Mario Stage:

Chance: 7.5%
Not expecting it, but it's a real possibility. The main reason for me rating it so low is that, in my mind, a Dr. Mario stage should have been added in Melee if it were to be added at all, since Dr. Mario was a character.

Want: 25%
Could be cool, I guess.

Ryu Prediction: .47%
Expecting less than Wright due to him being a fighting game character as well as having Wright's issues.

Nominations: Diskun x5
 

Smasher 101

Smash Lord
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Jul 21, 2013
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USA
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SW-7628-2111-0913
Mona's chances: 1% - At this point I'm very sure that Wario will be in by himself.
Want: 30% - Meh.

Dr. Mario stage: 15% - Not expecting it, but it's possible. The fact that Dr. Mario has been playable before may slightly help it.
Want: 10% - Not sure if I'd like this...

Ryu prediction: 0.20%

Mewtwo x5
 

Xenigma

Smash Lord
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Charleston, SC
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Mona - 0%
I've always thought the idea of a second playable WarioWare character was a longshot, but now that the most popular of the lot has been disconfirmed, I can't help but think that's Sakurai's way of disconfirming every other possibility as well. Honestly, if Ashley doesn't have what it takes, why would anyone else? Seems practically guaranteed at this point that the only WarioWare character we'll be seeing is Wario himself.
Want - 0% - I don't really care for the WarioWare characters and would prefer that space be used towards more deserving characters.

Dr. Mario Stage - 10%
I guess it's a possibility for the 3DS version in particular, but stages are difficult to call in any circumstance, and with Dr. Mario himself almost certainly not going to appear, why should a stage of his be anything more than a distant maybe? Not really sure what to make of this nomination other than yeah, it could happen.
Want - 50% - It's fine I guess? I think it would fit well enough, I just don't really care.

Ryu - 0.05%
I don't want to predict a zero, but with Sakurai disconfirming fighting game characters and Capcom already having a rep besides, there really shouldn't be any non-zero ratings for chance.

Nominations
Shulk x5
 

Rouge

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 8, 2013
Messages
246
Location
Montreal
Mona
Chance: 2% - Meh, I really see the Ashley thing as a confirmation that Wario won't be getting a second character à la Samurai Goroh in Brawl.
Want: 80% - I have only played the original WW on the GBA, but I had a lot of fun and I'd love a second Wario character, especially if the character got to show a lot of Warioware's quirks so they feel the liberty of giving Wario a moveset that is slightly more inspired on Wario Land. But Brawl Wario was great enough as he was, so w/e.

Dr. Mario Stage
Doing this with stage is actually hard!

Chance: 12% - Well Brawl had two (three if you count MK) very retro Mario stages. It's not farfetched to envision a Dr. Mario stage built from the same idea. It's hard to rank it high because Mario has so many possible stages that would be great for this game.

Want: 60% - Could be very interesting and work in a somewhat unique way.

Ryu: 1.41% - Completely unlikely but Street Fighter is Street Fighter so it's bound to have a bunch of 5%s here and there.

Panther x 5
 

Glaciacott

Smash Lord
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Messages
1,628
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Mintendo Noodle House
Mona
Chances - 5%
Ashley was definitely the most likely choice from Wario Ware imo, mainly because of the huge demand and popularity (relative to other Wario Ware developers.) Her being an AT just tells me it's a series that will only be represented by Wario, perhaps a stage.

Want - 30%
I really like the idea of Wario Ware characters being playable, but Mona isn't really one of my top choices for that after Ashley. I also have come to the belief that it's either Wario Ware or Rhythm Heaven, since the franchises are very similar, and in that sense I'd rather Rhythm Heaven get some content.

Dr. Mario Stage
Chances - 15%
Possible, but with such a large amount of locations, I don't know why they'd choose this one. I will admit, however, that I find a Dr. Mario stage more likely than Dr. Mario himself, and I also find it 100% likely his theme will be in the game.
Additionally, I want to bring up the fact we need to consider both Wii U and 3DS stage potential. Given that Dr. Mario is more of a console game (due to eShop and the 64 version), I raised the percentage considerably to account for the possibility of a Dr. Mario stage on the Wii U being the spiritual counterpart of a Tetris stage on the 3DS (given how Tetris is pretty much synonymous with portable gaming.)

Want - 50%
Indifference. That Tetris stage though ... I guess I'll get to talk about it later.

Nominations
x5 Magnus ... wait, so will we wind up rating Kid Icarus characters back to back? Makes me feel like Hades was wasted on Reggie ...
 

NickerBocker

Smash Lord
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Jul 8, 2013
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AB, Canada
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Mona
Chance: 5%
Want: 60%

I like the idea of another Wario character, but the chance of the series getting another character is pretty low. Wario had help from being in other series before being in the Warioware games, which is msot likely why he was added in Smash.

Dr Mario Stage
Chance: 25%
Want: 100%

Hard to really decide on a number, but i will say that having a character in Melee definitely helps its chances, along with the possibility of a return for the next installment (most likely as an alt costume.)

Ryu: 0.35%
Someone is going to give higher than a zero. Honestly, considering Sakurai said no fighting game characters (e.g RYU!) will be included, it shouldn't be higher than a 1%

Nominations
Pokemon Trainer x5
The veteran one, none of this "Pokemon trainer without the pokemon" stuff.

...wut
 
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loganhogan

Smash Ace
Joined
Dec 22, 2011
Messages
816
I on the contrary think Ashley's deconfirmation strengthen's Mona, Jimmy T, and Kat & Ana's chances. These four are the most 4 prominent characters in the series.

Mona:
chance 25%
The biggest threat to her is that Sakurai decides to leave Wario solo like he did for Yoshi, F-zero, and Metroid. However if he somehow decides to grant the Wario series a newcomer like the way he did for the Mother series, a much smaller series, then she doesn't have much competition other than Jimmy T, Kat & Ana, and maybe Captain Syrup.

want 58% Most neutral but I would be cool with her.

Dr. Mario stage
chance abstain
want 100% That would be great.

x5 Isa Jo
predict 2%
 

FalKoopa

Rainbow Waifu
BRoomer
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India/भारत
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SW-5545-7990-4793
Mona:
Likelihood: 3%
I think the disconfirmation of Ashley sealed the chances of all other WarioWare characters. She's probably not getting in.

Want: 55%
My 2nd Choice for a WarioWare character, after Ashley.

Dr. Mario Stage:
Likelihood: 12%
Definitely possible, given that Dr. Mario series continues to churn out new games on each and every Nintendo console.

Want: 100%
If I can't get Doc, at least give me a stage to remember him.

Ryu: 0.2%
Sakurai already closed the door to characters from other fighting games.

6 Mario Characters x 5
 

YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
Joined
Dec 24, 2001
Messages
7,123
Location
Still up Peach's dress.
Mona
Chance: 2%

I just honestly can't see Wario getting any other characters. I feel like he's as doomed to be alone as Yoshi or Captain Falcon.

Mona is one of the more prominent characters in WarioWare(alongside Jimmy T and fan favourite Ashley), but I honestly don't see it happening.

Want: 50%
That said, I quite like Mona. She always had some of the better games in WarioWare if memory serves.

I'm not entirely sure what she'd do, and I'm not going to actively support her at this point but should she turn up I'd be pleasantly surprised and pleased with her inclusion.

Dr. Mario Stage:
Chance: 13%

The main reason a Dr. Mario stage would be considered is the music first and foremost. Apparently the music was enough of a reason for the good doctor to be considered as playable, so a stage wouldn't be out the blue entirely.

That said, Melee was a better time to add a stage for Doc, and we got nothing. With Dr. Mario at only the third most likely returning veteran after Mewtwo who is almost a shoe-in/shoo-in(pick your spelling of choice) and Roy, whom people are considering unlikely to return over Chrom, I'm not all that confident in his return, let alone a stage.

Want: 100%
Yes. I like Nintendo puzzlers. Dr. Mario's probably my second favourite so it'd be a nice tribute to his Melee veteran status if for whatever reason Doc isn't at least a costume for Mario.

Ryu: 0.45%
Not happening. Fighting game character. 3rd party. Belongs to Capcom who are currently possessing one roster slot with Megaman.

Nominations:

5 X Playable Bosses
 
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