Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Rouge]

Oh my GOD, Groose. You are my new favorite poster. That was glorious!

Cranky - chance 4%: Yes, even with the Rosalina case I still think that this is extremely unlikely. He's not even the most likely newcomer from Tropical Freeze, not by a long shot.
Want - 70%. Senior citizen gimmicks <3

Waddle Dee - chance 15%: I'm tempted to say 0 because the 80-90s from his fans are kind of hard to watch. Sure, he's the likely Kirby newcomer, but nothing guarantees a Kirby newcomer... or even hints at one. I'm not trying to be mean, I just don't want him to be at the top of the list so that people actually come to think of him as a shoe-in and set themselves up for a massive bummer when the cast is spoiled.

Want: 50% - I love spears and Kirby; could be fun.

Prediction for Banjo: 1.1&. it should be 0, but someone will overrank him.

 

[FalKoopa]

CloudFlare returns an error every time I try to edit the OP or the thread title. Hmm...

 

[Aqua Rock X]

CRANKY KONG

Chance: 1% - Not Likely.

Want: 0% - Dixie or K.Rool.

BANDANNA WADDLE DEE

Chance: 1% - Even if you reason that he is more than the average Dee, he still has the possibility of being an AT.

Want: 0% - If anything, my most wanted Kirby Newcomer is Daroach.

Banjo Prediction: 0.7% - Being owned by Microsoft kills his chances in the eyes of many.

Nominations:
Daroach x5

 

[Deleted member]

X1 Invader Zim (???)

Groose, Invader Zim is from a TV show on Nickelodeon called "Invader Zim." He technically shouldn't have nominations.

 

[Groose]

Three pieces of news:
1) Update will be tomorrow instead of today. Why? I have a bit of a cold, and I'm going to do some resting now instead of updating. And because I spent the other part of my free time today watching Catching Fire, and man, what an amazing film! Much better than the first one. Anyway, blame Chandelure, not me--he clearly is behind this because I didn't give Waddle Dee a good rating.
2)Speaking of my Waddle Dee rating, I'm bumping it up by 2.5%. I've reevaluated things a bit and I see him a tad more likely. I've edited my masterpiece (wow, 21 likes? Thanks!) accordingly.
3) The OP still can't be edited. Oh well. I expect the problem to be resolved shortly... but who knows?

Groose, Invader Zim is from a TV show on Nickelodeon called "Invader Zim." He technically shouldn't have nominations.

Thanks for letting me know. Is there at least a video game based o the show, or is he strictly TV-only? I'll probably be removing him soon.

CloudFlare returns an error every time I try to edit the OP or the thread title. Hmm...

Happens anytime I try to update the OP. At all. Not just the title. I appreciate your help, though, and I'm afraid I must ask this: could you inform the admin that there's a problem with that? They probably should know that OP's (or at least this one) can't be edited. I fear that my OP... is... well... TOO BIG.

+1 for that post Groose. I think you really pointed out a lot of info. And having never played a Phoenix Wright game before, the music you picked was really catchy.

Well, here comes my spiel about how you should play it--if you enjoy reading, point-and-click, and over-the-top writing it's the game for you. I'll just say this: there's a free (I think) trial of the first case on iOS. It's worth a look, at least.

Eevee music:
Pokemon Evolution Theme
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALW7Irzgbnk
Celadon City
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKgA-fuDoIs
Castelia City
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpy-Qp1IWh8

Also Groose: I think its unfair that Starfy is deconfirmed while Toad is still under consideration. Starfy hasnt officially been deconfirmed, while Toad pretty much has. I dont really care for Starfy and I'm a member of the Toad Parade, but I think that's not fair to Starfy fans. Either both should be deconfirmed, or neither.

I pretty much agree... However, there is that tiny sliver of hope left among Toad fans that they'll "refresh" Peach's moveset or put in Blue Toad. I'll make a poll on it or something... when I can actually edit the OP.

Beautiful logic is a weapon, Groose. A lot of people think I'm rather blind for giving him 90%, but I'm doing that for a very specific reason; It's because I'm mostly sure about his inclusion from the variety of angles I look at (It's not 100%, eh?). I'm taking this thing seriously, after all. I can understand detractors and the like being a big problem, but I'm not going to look them and be speechless. Those tiny little blurbs in my ratings today are simple, simple summaries of page long arguements and counter-arguements. I look at things from a variety of angles to get an idea, because I've played many of our current character's and past character's games. I'm going to make an exception to this with Lip, however, if she's rerated (I will abstain). My knowledge of Panel De Pon is limited, simply because it's the one odd series of Nintendo I have never played. I will respect your opinion entirely, Groose, and we can agree to disagree.

Everyone is entitled to hunches--actually, when it comes down to it, this game is all about hunches. I fully respect all opinions, even if I don't feel the same way. You're among one of my favorite posters to read when I collect each day's results, and that's not going to change because we don't see eye to eye on a character.

My opinions are pretty much as I've said. I look at Waddle Dee, and I see Toad. They're just comparable in so many ways. Seeing one fail to make the leap has me a bit skeptical that the other will. I do see points in his favor, though, and our whole difference in rating is that you give these greater emphasis. I can see exactly where you're coming from

Seeing Toad deconfirmed and the Pyrosphere scare made me realize something though--don't get too attached to any characters to the point of heartbreak. Pinning your hopes on this game on one or a small group of characters making it... is unwise.

 

[NickerBocker]

Cranky
Chance: 5%
Want: 30%
Until I see K Rool, then dixie, his want is low for me.

Waddle Dee
Chance: 1%
Want : 50%
Im indifferent, but im remaining unconvinced until Toad, who is in a similar position, gets in. Also, to counteract the delusional. (I shouldve given a 0, I was feeling generous)

Burger King: 0.15%
Gonna be the lowest chance, but an extremely high want rating.

Nomms:
DLC characters x5

 

[Deleted member]

1) Update will be tomorrow instead of today.

Thanks for letting me know. Is there at least a video game based o the show, or is he strictly TV-only? I'll probably be removing him soon.

He is featured in some Nickelodeon crossovers, but he has nothing to his name in terms of video games.

 

[Chandeelure]

Cranky
Chance: 5%
Want: 30%
Until I see K Rool, then dixie, his want is low for me.

Waddle Dee
Chance: 1%
Want : 50%
Im indifferent, but im remaining unconvinced until Toad, who is in a similar position, gets in. Also, to counteract the delusional. (I shouldve given a 0, I was feeling generous)

Burger King: 0.15%
Gonna be the lowest chance, but an extremely high want rating.

Nomms:
DLC characters x5

So...Cranky is more likely than Bandana Dee?
You've made a powerful enemy.

 

[SmashShadow]

Positives:
Spear user guarantees a unique moveset
Model is easy to make because of Waddle Dees other uses (King Dedede)
Practically no competition from other Kirby characters
Appears multiple times in his series even being playable at one point
Comes from a series that is big enough to warrant 4 characters
Appears in the most recent Kirby game (Triple Deluxe)

Negatives:
Very generic
Is far less important than the other 3 Kirby characters
Could easily end up as part of Dedede's side special
Definitely not a necessary character even from a fan perspective
Has to compete with several more important characters.

 

[Chandeelure]

Positives:
Spear user guarantees a unique moveset
Model is easy to make because of Waddle Dees other uses (King Dedede)
Practically no competition from other Kirby characters
Appears multiple times in his series even being playable at one point
Comes from a series that is big enough to warrant 4 characters
Appears in the most recent Kirby game (Triple Deluxe)

Negatives:
Very generic
Is far less important than the other 3 Kirby characters
Could easily end up as part of Dedede's side special
Definitely not a necessary character even from a fan perspective
Has to compete with several more important characters.

Negatives:
Very generic. Yoshi and Pokemon.
Is far less important than the other 3 Kirby characters. That's true but he is slowly becoming an important character.
Could easily end up as part of Dedede's side special. That's why we need to wait for Dedede's reveal.
Definitely not a necessary character even from a fan perspective. Rosalina.
Has to compete with several more important characters. Rosalina.

 

[jaytalks]

Negatives:
Very generic. Yoshi and Pokemon.
Is far less important than the other 3 Kirby characters. That's true but he is slowly becoming an important character.
Could easily end up as part of Dedede's side special. That's why we need to wait for Dedede's reveal.
Definitely not a necessary character even from a fan perspective. Rosalina.
Has to compete with several more important characters. Rosalina.

The Yoshi and Pokemon point doesnt make much sense. Yoshi is far from generic, and all the pokemon included have been the unique and strongly designed. Some might argue Pichu is not well designed/generic, but I would disagree with that contention.

I also gave Cranky a higher chance than Waddle Dee. I love making new enemies!

 

[Chandeelure]

The Yoshi and Pokemon point doesnt make much sense. Yoshi is far from generic, and all the pokemon included have been the unique and strongly designed. Some might argue Pichu is not well designed/generic, but I would disagree with that contention.

I also gave Cranky a higher chance than Waddle Dee. I love making new enemies!

Generic because for him Bandana Dee is just a Waddle Dee ,but he forgot that Yoshi is one of thousand of Yoshies and the Pokemon are in the same situation.
This is not about moveset .

 

[Deleted member]

Honestly, I think that we should have waited to rate Bandana Dee after King Dedede's reveal. That would have been a bit more appropriate.

 

[Pacack]

The Yoshi and Pokemon point doesnt make much sense. Yoshi is far from generic, and all the pokemon included have been the unique and strongly designed. Some might argue Pichu is not well designed/generic, but I would disagree with that contention.

I also gave Cranky a higher chance than Waddle Dee. I love making new enemies!

There are multiple Yoshis and multiples of every Pokemon. That's what he's referring to.

 

[jaytalks]

Generic because for him Bandana Dee is just a Waddle Dee ,but he forgot that Yoshi is one of thousand of Yoshies and the Pokemon are in the same situation.
This is not about moveset .

I wasnt talking about moveset. I was talking about character design. I see what you mean though. But I can see the "very generic" meaning in terms of character design. That's what I thought the poster meant.

 

[Pacack]

I wasnt talking about moveset. I was talking about character design. I see what you mean though. But I can see the "very generic" meaning in terms of character design. That's what I thought the poster meant.

Well, to be fair, Kirby isn't exactly the most complex character.

 

[jaytalks]

Well, to be fair, Kirby isn't exactly the most complex character.

But he's not generic. Kirby is widely recognized brand. Simple does not equal generic.

 

[Pacack]

But he's not generic. Kirby is widely recognized brand. Simple does not equal generic.

I'm a little confused, can you define "generic" to me? And how it Bandana Dee is generic?

 

[jaytalks]

I'm a little confused, can you define "generic" to me? And how it Bandana Dee is generic?

generic means not specific, like forgettable and very plain.

Bandana/Waddle Dee can be considered generic (keep in mind, I dont think this) since the initial Waddle Dee design was meant for a forgettable henchman type character. Putting the bandana on him doesnt change the core of that design. At least, that's what I'd argue.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Fellow Waddle Dee fans. Those 80+ scores you gave? They backfired and gave you incredibly low scores because people think they need to outweigh the highs with 1% and 3%s instead of putting down what they know is the true score, like the game is meant to be played.

 

[Starcutter]

yeh I wouldn't give bandana dee over 45%.

wait have I rated anyone yet? if not, Waddle Dee 45%
Want 95%

Cranky: 5%
Want: 20% I still don't think he's good for a fighter, even though I really like DKC. but whatever floats your boat.

Noms for
Grovyle(PMD2)x3
Stork(Yoshi)x2

 

[Golden Icarus]

Fellow Waddle Dee fans. Those 80+ scores you gave? They backfired and gave you incredibly low scores because people think they need to outweigh the highs with 1% and 3%s instead of putting down what they know is the true score, like the game is meant to be played.

I don't know what's worse. The really high scores given by the Bandana Dee supporters, or the absurdly low scores given by the people trying to outweigh the high ratings...

 

[Deleted member]

I don't know what's worse. The really high scores given by the Bandana Dee supporters, or the absurdly low scores given by the people trying to outweigh the high ratings...

Both.

Though, honestly I gave him an 80% because that is what I think his chances are. While I do have a certain bias, I mentioned that I think it's a rather positive thing as I find there to be some positives with Bandana Dee to me. I never intended to really skew his scores and I will recognize my ignorance if he does get disconfirmed.

In my opinion, I don't think that Bandana Dee's day should really count if many people are purposefully giving him high scores and low scores. As a supporter, I say that people are underestimating him, but his overall score should truly be around 30%-50% chance. That's a good range. I will still keep my 80% because that is how I honestly feel. I would probably bump it a bit more if we don't see him be a part of Waddle Dee Toss or as an Assist Trophy. (call me crazy, but I would do that)

Rate Their Chances isn't supposed to be how accurate we are, but rather how ignorant we could be after when the game releases or during development (15% chance for Rosalina didn't accurately reflect her chances in my eyes). It shouldn't be taken too seriously. Again, a high rated character like Little Mac could get disconfirmed tomorrow while a low rated character like Tharja could be on the roster (hypothetically speaking that is).

 

[SmashShadow]

Generic because for him Bandana Dee is just a Waddle Dee ,but he forgot that Yoshi is one of thousand of Yoshies and the Pokemon are in the same situation.
This is not about moveset .

I didn't forget anything. Yoshi may be one of many but he is the main protagonist of his games while no waddle dee can say that. His design also is almost an exact copy of the most prominent generic enemy in Kirby games. As to Pokemon, they are all very generic. Pokemon revolves around Pokemon and Yoshi games revolve around Yoshi's. Kirby does not revolve around waddle dees however prominent they may be.

As to Rosalina, yes she got in but those two things never worked in her favor.

 

[Gunla]

I don't know what's worse. The really high scores given by the Bandana Dee supporters, or the absurdly low scores given by the people trying to outweigh the high ratings...

There's a method to my madness. I give what I give. Perhaps I go 5-10% a little high, yes, but I'm very confident in Bandana. Though even after Groose's heavy arguement, he gave the guy a 22.5%... I'd think many people would think higher after that.

 

[Xenigma]

I just feel bad for Cranky. He gets his moment to shine and yet his day has been basically taken over by Bandana's rerate, despite being one of the most interesting nominees in recent memory. That's some awful luck.

 

[Gunla]

I just feel bad for Cranky. He gets his moment to shine and yet his day has been basically taken over by Bandana's rerate, despite being one of the most interesting nominees in recent memory. That's some awful luck.

Just gonna use an analogy with Ron Burgundy to some other person. They might be interesting, but Burgundy is kind of... well, a big deal.

 

[Glaciacott]

Just gonna use an analogy with Ron Burgundy to some other person. They might be interesting, but Burgundy is kind of... well, a big deal.

You do realize last time it was the "other person" that actually made it into Smash, right? ("other person" being Rosalina)

 

[Pacack]

I vote that we rerate Bandana Dee after King Dedede's reveal. Cause this rating is not going to be an accurate representation of what we all think.

 

[Deleted member]

I vote that we rerate Bandana Dee after King Dedede's reveal. Cause this rating is not going to be an accurate representation of what we all think.

I say that we discard this rating and rate him again a few days after when King Dedede is revealed where we might see Waddle Dee Toss in action. That's the only major thing.

 

[Glaciacott]

I don't think there'll be a point. Like with Toad, the fanbase of Bandana Dee will probably be adamant about how there can still be a Waddle Dee with a Bandana, so they'll still rate him super high, while the non-believers will just keep on giving the low ratings. The votes around the middle that would be affected are probably offset by all the 80-90%s and 1-3%s.
With Kirby we also have the disadvantage of probably not getting any "Rosalina" to get people to accept the chances are dead. So I'm pretty sure people who want Dee will keep on hoping until the game comes out or Sakurai says no more characters.

Personally, I just vote that people who like Bandana Dee don't keep on renominating him so often. Let us talk about other characters.

 

[FalKoopa]

Edited the thread title.

 

[Chandeelure]

I don't think there'll be a point. Like with Toad, the fanbase of Bandana Dee will probably be adamant about how there can still be a Waddle Dee with a Bandana, so they'll still rate him super high, while the non-believers will just keep on giving the low ratings.

Bandana Dee is THE Waddle Dee,not just a normal Waddle Dee with a bandana,he is not like Toad,Toad is generic,there is a lot of blue or red Toads,Bandana Dee is his own character,and has a personality,he is more like Toadsworth,an important and UNIQUE member of a species.
Here is another example,what can do Blue Toad that Yellow Toad can't do?... NOTHING.
Bandana Dee is stronger than a normal Waddle Dee,is a warrior and has the role of Dedede's right hand,normal Waddle Dees can't do that.

But yeah,in summary,If Dedede throws Bandana Dee,he would be disconfirmed,but if Dedede throws a normal Waddle Dee,there is no reason to believe that he would be disconfirmed.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Edited the thread title.

So, you can edit the OP again?

 

[FalKoopa]

So, you can edit the OP again?

Not the OP unfortunately. I think it has to do with the huge amount of text in the OP. So for the time being, I'll update the title everyday (days of this thread) while waiting for the issue to get fixed.

 

[Groose]

I forget. Does Chandelure have a third ability that has a chance of burning it's opponent? That would explain why I'm burning up with a fever. I'm terribly sorry, guys, but the update won't be until tomorrow. But tomorrow for sure...

 

[BluePikmin11]

I forget. Does Chandelure have a third ability that has a chance of burning it's opponent? That would explain why I'm burning up with a fever. I'm terribly sorry, guys, but the update won't be until tomorrow. But tomorrow for sure...

Oh and guys have a Happy New Year!

 

[Deleted member]

I forget. Does Chandelure have a third ability that has a chance of burning it's opponent? That would explain why I'm burning up with a fever.

He could have Flame Body, that would explain why. He is a Chandelure after all.
Get well soon!

 

[McDuckletts]

I forget. Does Chandelure have a third ability that has a chance of burning it's opponent? That would explain why I'm burning up with a fever. I'm terribly sorry, guys, but the update won't be until tomorrow. But tomorrow for sure...

Chandelure gets flame body. Serebii confirmed this for me.
I wish you the best of luck with that fever, Groose.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Cranky likelihood : 15%
Want : 60%

Bandana Dee likelihood : 50%
Want : 75%

Favorite day : Karate Joe

Banjo : .23%

Wrestler x5
Edit: whoa what's going on in this thread