Ninten
Popularity: Who? Nintendo is a character?
Relevancy: Huh?
Design: Another clone in the Ness-Lucas series, except he looks just like Ness.
Competition: Oh hey, you could use Porky or Kumatora or Claus, and you'd be adding more unique characters from more popular games in the series. In the case of Porky, one who's also not Japan-only.
Model: My model thinks an Earthbound cut is way more likely than an Earthbound addition. I'd have to agree, unfortunately.
Ninten chances: 0.1%
I don't think Earthbound is getting a 3rd slot, and if it does, I don't think it's going to Ninten, who will be yet another Ness clone. If Sakurai feels that he needs to fill out the roster and decides to add a clone, he'd probably clone someone who wasn't already cloned or bring back a cut veteran. A few more likely clone possibilities: Bowser Jr, Black Shadow, Dr Mario, Roy, Toon Zelda, Dixie Kong...
Ninten want: 5%
My want is based only on his addition likely indicating news for the Earthbound series. A sequel... Remakes (from what I hear, Mother 1 could use some major tuning)? Even just a Western release for Mother 1 and 3 would be worthwhile. Other than that... Earthbound has plenty enough representation.
Groose prediction: 0.9%
Seems likely to attract some support, but I'm guessing not much.
Nominations:
Pichu x5