• Welcome to Smashboards, the world's largest Super Smash Brothers community! Over 250,000 Smash Bros. fans from around the world have come to discuss these great games in over 19 million posts!

    You are currently viewing our boards as a visitor. Click here to sign up right now and start on your path in the Smash community!

Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

Status
Not open for further replies.

Erimir

Smash Lord
Joined
Nov 24, 2001
Messages
1,732
Location
DC
3DS FC
3823-8583-9137
Phoenix Wright

He's a Capcom character. Capcom already has a character. He's unconventional. He's kinda been in Marvel vs. Capcom so they wouldn't be breaking new ground by making him a zany fighter.

He's also not that legendary yet.

Phoenix Wright chances: 0.1%
I doubt Capcom would get a second rep. And if they did, I think Zero would probably be more likely. But Zero's about as likely as Tails, Knuckles or Shadow (i.e. not very likely at all).

Phoenix Wright want: 40%
(50% = indifference)
I've never played his games. I'd want other characters.

Masked Link prediction: 2%
I dunno. Everyone is expecting low because Toon Link. Just how low is the question.

Nominations:
5x Sheik


Rate their chances statistics:
Oh yeah, and I did do some statistics, although I'm still working on coming up with a simple predictive model.

If you saw my post in the Franchise sales/representation thread, you saw that the number of representatives that a series gets in a Smash game can be modeled with a linear regression using Franchise Sales and Previous # Slots (how many reps they had in the previous game) with an R^2 value of a little over .75.

Previous number of slots accounts for a large amount of the variation on its own (although so does sales, to a lesser degree).

At any rate, I figure you take the number of slots that predicts for the game and combine that with the predictions people made by series might get a reasonable performance. I want something I can apply to our current predictions to make some for Smash 4. But I've been busy playing Wind Waker instead, so yeah.

Anyway, here's how the previous iterations of the game did compared to some very simple and obviously wrong baselines:

Actual Brawl: 35/39 slots/movesets, 4 Mario characters, 4/6 Pokemon, 4/5 Zelda, 2 Donkey Kong, 2 Fire Emblem, 4 Retro, and 2 third-party characters.

GameFAQs: predicted a roster with 85.8 characters, including 11 Mario characters, 7.6 Pokemon, 8.6 Zelda, 3 Donkey Kong, 6 Fire Emblem, 7 retros and 13 third-party characters.

SmashBoards: predicted a roster with 52.7 characters, including 7.3 Mario, 5.9 Pokemon (not bad there), 6.9 Zelda, 2.6 Donkey Kong, 2.6 Fire Emblem, 5.1 Retro, and 5.2 third-parties.

My sales-based model predicts a roster with 34.8 first-party characters (I did not include 3rd-parties in the model), and 38.4 movesets. It is interesting that it overestimates almost exactly 2 slots/movesets more than it really was (the model does not know how many slots Brawl had overall), since that implies that Sonic and Snake took slots that would've gone to first-party characters. It predicts 5.2/5.9 Mario, 4.3/4.9 Pokemon, 4/5 Zelda, 1.9/2.1 Donkey Kong, 2.1/2.3 Fire Emblem and 4.4/4.6 retro characters.

Brier score (lower is better, 1 is the worst possible, 0 is perfect accuracy):
GameFAQs top 10 newcomers: 0.222
SmashBoards top 10 newcomers: 0.233

As I said, I'm still working on a model for comparing on newcomers, but yeah. It will have to exclude third-parties.

GameFAQs top 100: 0.143
SmashBoards (all predictions since there were less than 100): 0.185

Notice that you can improve your Brier score by making a larger number of obvious predictions. Predicting low numbers for obscure characters increases the score but doesn't really mean you were a prescient predictor just because you gave low likelihood to things that most people would give low likelihood to.

On the same characters as GameFAQs Top 100, simply predicting 100% likelihood for every Melee veteran and 0% for any newcomer (E3 newcomers not included since as they were revealed before the game started, they cannot be part of any predictions) would get you a Brier score of 0.14.

The same thing on the SmashBoards gets a Brier score of 0.182, about the same.

So, they'd have been just as, if not more accurate, simply by predicting no more newcomers and that every Melee veteran would return.

Later I'll do some similar statistics on the current iteration of Rate Their Chances to provide a summary of what kind of roster size and series distribution people seem to be expecting. I intend to re-calibrate my ratings based on a sensible roster size.

Based on Fire Emblem, we're probably being a bit more sensible than last time. Our combined prediction seems to be about 3.1 Fire Emblem characters, which is not ridiculous like the 6 GameFAQs predicted for Brawl.
 

LoneKonWolf

Lazy Lonely Lurker☕
Joined
Oct 8, 2013
Messages
3,661
Location
Somewhere with Coffee
wow, Groose just made the mother of all posts :laugh: (and drat I missed Andy day)
anywho, lets get down to phoenix wright
Phoenix - 0.01%
phoenix wright, despite being loyal to the big N, has had a case of being to late.
Capcom's mega man is already in the game and there is a possibly of a second third party rep, but the only third party to have that opportunity is Sega and even that chance is probably near extinction.
Want - 0%

Want - 100% (much better:smirk:)
I have only recently gotten into ace attorney games, but I have gotten hooked on the game series already, having phoenix wright as a playable character (or **** any thing to make a reference of him) would be dang right awesome
Masked link - 1.16%

Nomination: NobrawlcutsX5
 

Pazzo.

「Livin' On A Prayer」
Joined
Oct 3, 2012
Messages
9,187
Phoenix Wright

Chances: 0.1%. Sorry Nick, but Megs has got your spot. :(

Want: 75%. I'd want him over a ton of other characters *COUGHpacmanCAUGH*

I'm a huge fan of the Ace Attorney games, (ONE MORE DAY UNTIL AA5!!!), but in a fighting game, MVC3 should show how well he could work.

Nominate: Lucina x3

Dillon x2
 

Starcutter

Resident Beedrill
Joined
Dec 13, 2012
Messages
7,221
Location
Viridian Forest
NNID
Legendofrob1
3DS FC
1908-0357-9077
gotta love how everyone who's even played the ace attorney games gives him 100% in want, while (almost) everyone who hasn't rates him under 10%.
 

FalKoopa

Rainbow Waifu
BRoomer
Joined
Dec 16, 2012
Messages
32,231
Location
India/भारत
3DS FC
1650-3685-3998
Switch FC
SW-5545-7990-4793
Pheonix Wright:
Chance: 0%
Capcom already has Mega Man, and this sends the chances of another Capcom character down the gutter. He isn't a legendary one either.

Want: 20%
Haven'y played his games, sorry.

Masked Link prediction: 3%

Fawful x 5
 

colder_than_ice

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 7, 2013
Messages
1,331
Phoenix
Chance: 0% - We already have a Capcom rep.
Want: 77% - How can anyone not love this video game Icon.

Masked Link prediction: 1%

Nominations: Aeron x5
 

Golden Icarus

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 4, 2013
Messages
1,132
Location
USA
Pheonix
Chance 0.5%
I think we all know it's not gonna happen. I'm just too generous to give him a zero. :p
Want 35%
I'd rather not...

Masked Link Prediction 1.2%

Nomination
No Brawl Cuts x10
 

Groose

Smash Champion
Joined
Jun 14, 2013
Messages
2,228
Location
Villanova
Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney)
0.58% chance
41.98% want

Sandbag? Primid? Take a seat. Phoenix Wright is now at the bottom of the chance charts. Fortunately for the star defense attorney, he's slightly above the average character in terms of want. All in all... that's just not the verdict he was hoping for.

He may not have to wait long to be dethroned, however. We have a number of unlikely suspects coming up... first of which is Mask Link. Mask Link soared up the nominations list... but a second Link has already been revealed. Does he have the chops to make the cut as the third Link on the roster? Please rate Mask Link in chance and want. I have plans for his music section, but I don't have time on my hands today. I'll update it tomorrow.

Tomorrow we'll be rating everyone's favorite leprechaun. Who? Chancellor Cole, of course! Please predict how Chancellor Cole will fare in tomorrow's game. Groose wins the nominations today. Insert Peach voice clip of "Oh, did I win" here.

By the way, Erimir has been working on a statistical analysis for us. I've yet to check it out what you've sent so far, Erimir, but I'll get to it later. I'm dying to do so.Thank you for your efforts. To Toxicroaker, I'll have your music added in soon. Trust me.
 

BluePikmin11

Akko is my dear daughter!
Joined
Jan 5, 2013
Messages
28,373
Location
https://twitter.com/BPikmin11
NNID
blue
Masked Link Chance: 12% It's a neat concept, but I'm not sure if Sakurai is willing to that.
Masked Link Want: 58%
I have no clue who Chancellor Cole is, so I'll avoid him tomorrow.
Nominations:
x5 Dr. Kawashima
 

Cheezey Bites

Slime Knight
Joined
Jul 7, 2013
Messages
1,649
Location
Astoltia
NNID
koske1
3DS FC
4356-0097-9129
4 more links:

Chance: 0%
Majora's Mask is seriously old news and is probably never going to get a remake...

Want: 40%
...which is a real shame as it's my personal favorite Zelda game. Butler's Son, Darmani and Mikau would all be great for showing off the various other races of the Zelda franchise too... well arguably the three most important at least, and I like switch characters. His want is massively hit by being the third Link and the fact that, despite my love of his game, I don't think he deserves a spot. Infact the biggest thing that pushes his score as high as it is, is that if he did make it into Smash we'd be getting Majora's Mask 3D... the character isn't the draw, which would be pretty bad news for the game.


Cole: 200%
He's so good they'll give him 2 character slots!

Oh wait... no.. that's PSASBR

Chancellore Cole: 0.6%
At least people who haven't played his game know who Phoenix Wright.. but people do like to inflate character chances for impossible 1st parties so I'll keep to a similar level.


Knuckles*5
('sup little *******, yo his name is knuckles.... wait... sorry, clicked the wrong youtube video...)
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Wow... I knew Phoenix Wright was going to do bad, but not THAT bad.
Mask Link
Chance: 0%

To keep it short, sweet, and simple: Majora's Mask is a very popular game (it won Game of the Decade by one website, even beating Super Mario Galaxy and Brawl). But, that can't save Mask Link from getting on the roster. I mean... 3 Links would be absolutely ridiculous!
Want: 0%
I hate having two or more of the same character on the roster. I hated having 2 Marios in Melee's roster and two Links in Melee's and Brawl's rosters. So yeah, I was very displeased when Toon Link got confirmed... another Link will make me feel the same way... maybe even worse.
Chancellor Cole Prediction: 1.43%
What an odd choice to be the 5th Zelda character.
Nominations: Captain Rainbow 5x
 

Toxicroaker

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 16, 2013
Messages
1,278
Location
Everywhere
3DS FC
4184-2367-6702
Masked Link: 0.01% Hm... Well there are two different links that would out-priorities him and there are two links confirmed. Not gonna happen.
Want: 10%

Chancellor Cole: 0.2%

x5 No cuts from Brawl
 

Smasher 101

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 21, 2013
Messages
1,046
Location
USA
3DS FC
0877-3649-6314
Switch FC
SW-7628-2111-0913
Masked Link's chances: 0% - I don't like to give out 0's in chance, but...I don't see a third Link being added.
Want: 0% - Would be really disappointed to see three Links in the roster.

Cole prediction: 0.96%

Sheik x5
 

LoneKonWolf

Lazy Lonely Lurker☕
Joined
Oct 8, 2013
Messages
3,661
Location
Somewhere with Coffee
dang poor nick, bottom of the barrel must be depressing
Mask link - 0.0001%

Toon Link says hello, that is all!
Want - 1%
too many links, my only enjoyment for him would be the saying,
Chancellor Cole - 0.56%
well at least Nick wont get lonely down there
Nominations: nobrawlcutsX5
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,783
Majora's Mask Link

Chance - 0% - Yeah, he's doomed. The only reason that he would be considered at all would be so he could use his masks as transformations, which I'm not exactly convinced is enough.

Want - 30% - While he could be interesting, the time it takes to develop the many models needed would be better spent elsewhere. I'd rather give the Toon series some love.


Chancellor Cole Prediction - 0.78% - The bad guy for one Zelda game, who can't even be called important to the timeline. Most people won't even know who he is.

Nominations
Dark Matter X3
Hades X2
 

Erimir

Smash Lord
Joined
Nov 24, 2001
Messages
1,732
Location
DC
3DS FC
3823-8583-9137
Masked Link

This one is pretty simple. There's not room for more Links and Masked Link would be one of the most time-consuming characters out of any proposed.

If they want to add more Zelda characters, I would see them adding Toon Zelda/Tetra and Toon Ganondorf or Pig/Beast Ganon before they'd add another Link. Tingle, Impa, Vaati and Ghirahim are also more interesting options than yet more Link. Yes, Masked Link would actually be pretty different. Doesn't matter, he's still Link. While moveset uniqueness matters somewhat, so does character uniqueness, and Masked Link is still another Link.

Not to mention that most Masked Link movesets involve actually making a transformation character, so it'd really be Young Link plus transformations into Deku Link, Zora Link and Goron Link. At the very least, you'd need basic attacks for all of them (if we assume Young Link has three special attacks dedicated to transformation rather than having only one which cycles through the transformations). More likely there'd be fully four movesets. And then again, the Final Smash would almost certainly be Fierce Deity Link, which introduces a fifth. Maybe Fierce Deity Link is just a stronger version of Link... even so, it requires designing and tweaking another character even if his moves work pretty much the same. Perhaps Fierce Deity Link is just an attack, and you don't get free control. Either way, it's four or five movesets, although one or two of them could use a lot of work done on Young Link/Toon Link/Link to reduce the amount of work a little bit.

So not only is Masked Link unlikely just because there are two Links already, but also Masked Link would be by far the most work of any proposed character. He's not essential to representing the Zelda franchise, and Zelda already has (presumably) 4 slots and 5 movesets. They could add three or four different characters in the same amount of time. Hell, they could add a Goron, Zora and a Deku Scrub with probably less work and without increasing the Link-saturation.

So why wouldn't they just add 3 or 4 non-Link characters instead? I really don't see any reason.

Masked Link chances: Something like 0.001%, we only go down to the second digit here, so rounding down = 0%
Like I said... there are already two Links and there are other Zelda characters waiting for their chance. And he's way more work than he's worth from that perspective.

Masked Link want: 30%
I like Majora's Mask, and if we didn't have any constraints on roster size or time or expense, I think he'd be cool. But the fact is that if he gets in, that's time they could've spent on 3 or 4 standalone characters. And I'd prefer to have that over one Masked Link. So if he were in, I'd be sad at the missed opportunity for other characters.

Chancellor Cole prediction: 2%
I dunno. I had to look him up to remember who he was, and I bought, beat and liked that game. I can't imagine there's that much expectation or desire for him.

Nominations:
5x Sheik
 

Gam3rALO

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jul 1, 2013
Messages
273
NNID
Gam3rALO
Mask Link
Chance: .5%
3 Links? NO WAY!

Want: 1%
Of course not!

Prediction for Chancellor Cole: .39%
Can he do worse than Phoenix Wright?

Nominations:
No cuts from Brawl x5
 

Pacack

Super Pac-Fan
Joined
Jun 7, 2013
Messages
8,066
Location
US (Mountain Time, -7 Hours)
NNID
Pacack
3DS FC
0688-5284-6845
I'm sorry Mask Link, but...

.01%
Not happening. Sakurai wants two Links, but I'm positive we're not getting 3...or 5/6...depending on how you look at it and how it could work. The final nail in the coffin is being at least Pokemon Trainer status work. That's ridiculous. Not a fan.

Want?

Eh...
2%?

Not a fan of transformation characters. Too much work overall. I'd try it, but it's not my favorite thing.

Prediction for Chancellor Cole:
.5%?

Who is he?
 

Starcutter

Resident Beedrill
Joined
Dec 13, 2012
Messages
7,221
Location
Viridian Forest
NNID
Legendofrob1
3DS FC
1908-0357-9077
mask link: 0%
want: 10% for all 4
70% for deku link specifically. but that's not what we are rating so he can leave.

cole: 0.3% yes I'm going that low.

noms
ammy x3
eevee x2
 

Al-kīmiyā'

Smash the State
Premium
Joined
Apr 22, 2010
Messages
2,579
Masked Link chance=2%

Masked Link want=90%

prediction=0.15%

Nomination=5xNeku and Shiki
 

SchAlternate

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 9, 2013
Messages
4,795
Location
Whatever remained of Zebes
NNID
SchAlternate
Switch FC
SW-4691-2422-5427
DON'T DROWN!
Likelihood: 0% - With Toon Link already on the roster, it's clear we're not getting any other Link, especially one that can drain so much development time.
Want: 0% - I loved Young Link more than I love Toon Link, but I detest the idea of him returning, especially with the Mask mechanic. What's the point to bring him back if not only does his replacement fit his role perfectly, but also would be drastically different from his Melee incarnation?

Such a COLEossal waste of a spot
Prediction: 0.3% - I'd be surprised if I see any score that is not near zero.

Also, lol, missed Phoenix's day. Not like if my score would be any different from anyone else's.

Nomination
A sea of Zeroes approaches x5
 

PK_Wonder

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 19, 2010
Messages
1,179
Majora's Mask Link - 1% No third Links.

predict 0.2%

Victini x3, Dark Samus x2

Hear me out here, and I mean this as no offense to those who are nominating... it's bad enough that we're rating Chancellor Cole tomorrow, BUT HAVE SOME DIGNITY FOR THE UPCOMING DAYS, PEOPLE. Let's try and at least make it through October without rating freaking Omastar and Yarne. So push those votes for Fawful and Captain Syrup and Daisy and Pauline and Rosalina and Dark Samus! Fight against the puddle beneath the bottom of the barrel!
 

Glaciacott

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 4, 2013
Messages
1,628
Location
Mintendo Noodle House
I'll keep it brief this time because I want to go eat.

Masked Link
Chance - 0%
Too many Links in the dance floor

Want - 0%
Too many Links in the dance floor

Prediction
Chancelor Cole - 0.43%
Too many ... wait, what? Cole? Really?

Nominations
x5 Rhythm Monkey
 

Groose

Smash Champion
Joined
Jun 14, 2013
Messages
2,228
Location
Villanova
Hear me out here, and I mean this as no offense to those who are nominating... it's bad enough that we're rating Chancellor Cole tomorrow, BUT HAVE SOME DIGNITY FOR THE UPCOMING DAYS, PEOPLE. Let's try and at least make it through October without rating freaking Omastar and Yarne. So push those votes for Fawful and Captain Syrup and Daisy and Pauline and Rosalina and Dark Samus! Fight against the puddle beneath the bottom of the barrel!

I would... but I'm trying to push through Shulk, K. Rool, and "Decloned Ganondorf" instead. If we rate someone like that alongside Omastar and Yarne... no big deal, right?
 

EddyBearr

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 14, 2013
Messages
1,202
Location
Minneapolis, Minnesota
Mask Link Chance: 3%. His chances are, sadly, very low. It's still a pretty cool concept, though, so Sakurai might have considered it for a little bit.
Mask Link Want: 100%. This is my biggest dream character in the history of ever. I would probably be the most hyped I have ever been for anything related to Smash, ever. It's the coolest concept, Young Link is my favorite Melee character, and Majora's Mask is my favorite game ever.

Man this character idea gives me shivers.

Prediction:
Who? - 0.2%

Nominations: Koopa Troopa x(all noms)
 

Aqua Rock X

Smash Ace
Joined
Oct 29, 2007
Messages
717
Location
Tennessee
After seeing the previous Masked Link prediction scores and now the actual ratings, I feel rather obtuse for giving him a prediction of 10%. I must've blown a circuit to process a score that high...

Masked Link

Chance: .01% - I don't think Sakurai finds it necessary to have that many Links. Especially one that would take a lot of development time.

Want: 5% - We have enough Links already.

Chancellor Cole Prediction: 0.05 - If no one knows who he is, how did he make it to be nominated?:troll:

Nominations:
Rhythm Monkey x5
 

Zhadgon

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 19, 2013
Messages
1,849
Location
Chilangolandia
NNID
Zhadgon
Masked Link
Chance: .10% Not even bother to say why...
Want: 35% I would prefer him over Toon Link any day (especially because Toon Link didn't receive a moveset overhaul).

Chancellor Cole
Prediction: .33% Ok I did research on this character... :joyful:it will not happen, if we receive another Zelda Villain will be Ghirahim or Vaati.

Nomination
Donbe and Hikari x 5

.n_n.
 

D3monicWolv3s

Smash Ace
Joined
Nov 11, 2006
Messages
648
Masked Link

Chance: 0% Not a chance, too much work for it to happen. Too few spots.
Want: 40% - Wanted him a lot more before toon link showed up and ruined everything.

Chancellor Cole - 0% Haven't even heard of him till now. Haven't seen any requests for him. He isn't recent, and will probably never be seen again. So nothing is going for him.

Nomination
x5 kumatora
 

XenothiumX

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 27, 2013
Messages
418
Majora's Mask Link
likelihood: 1%
the reveal of Toon Link really hurt his chances...

Want: 100%
I think there's a misconception among the people rating him. When I was voting for Majora's Mask Link the intended idea was only for the Deku, Zora, and Goron transformations with Fierce Deity as the final smash. I don't know why people are thinking that the regular human form is going to be a part of the character when we already have that. Anyways, I feel that if the Legend of Zelda series were to get a new unique fighting style rep (or really in this case reps) that this is the best idea. Unlike Ghirahim, Midna, and Zant we see the races of the Deku, Goron, and Zora reappear in Zelda games and so while we the whole transformation concept comes from Majora's Mask, I like to think of it as representing the major races in Hyrule's/Termina's lore.

Chancellor Cole
Prediction: 0.5%

Nominations:
Slippy x5
 

FalKoopa

Rainbow Waifu
BRoomer
Joined
Dec 16, 2012
Messages
32,231
Location
India/भारत
3DS FC
1650-3685-3998
Switch FC
SW-5545-7990-4793
Masked Link:
Likelihood: 0%
Poor guy. It was all due to him.


Want: 40%
I'd enjoy the transformation gimmick. And Majora's Mask is awesome.

Chancellor Cole prediction: 0%
I googled him and lol'd when I realized who he is.

Fawful x 5
 

Ephecus

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jul 9, 2013
Messages
108
Location
Austria
Masked Link

Likelihood: 0.2 %

Want: 15 %
He would've been my favorite second link. However TL is already confirmed and I really don't want a third Link.

CC Prediction: 0.45 %

Nominations:
3x C. Syrup
2x Daisy
 

YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
Joined
Dec 24, 2001
Messages
7,123
Location
Still up Peach's dress.
Masked Link
Chance: 0.1%
I don't like giving out scores this low, but three Links is too many. Not to mention he'd act like Pokemon Trainer as three transformation characters with a fourth being the final Smash. That's a lot of programming work because each additional Link would need to be balanced against every member of the cast whilst being balanced against each other, and making sure that the three overall balance and equate to a singular character.

Makes my head spin.

Want: 20%
I like the species in Zelda, and it'd be the best way to add them in, but unfortunately don't like them enough to want them taking up development time from others. Also three Links is a lot of Links, and Masked Link is arguably the weakest (Link) of the three only being important to one single game.

Cole:
1% Tops.
Not that well known, and not enough starpower.

Nominations:
Syrup X 3
Four DK characters X 2
 

NickerBocker

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 8, 2013
Messages
1,091
Location
AB, Canada
3DS FC
2492-4251-5054
MM Link
Chance: 0.01%
Want: 100%
A fantasy that will never happen, unfortunately. The ability to change between 3 races would be cool.

Cole who? 0.25%

Nominations
4 DKC Characters x5
 

Pazzo.

「Livin' On A Prayer」
Joined
Oct 3, 2012
Messages
9,187
Poor Nick... not even HIS NEW GAME TODAY *:D* could help him.

MM Link

Chance: 0% Sorry, no chance, I mean 3 LINKS? Come on.
Want: 20% MM is my favorite Zelda (I mean... just LOOK at my avatar), but I'd want Skull Kid More.

Verdict:..... A TERRIBLE FATE.

Cole... What?? .25%

Nomination
Skull Kid x5
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom