Lord logic? If you mean the fact lords are more likely than non-lords it's pretty effing clear no one invented it, it's just common sense. Main characters naturally will have a better shot at making it in an all-star cast. And on that note:
Tharja:
Chance 3%
The little bit of percentage I give her stems from the fact she's so stupidly popular, particularly in Japan. But even then, other Awakening characters also have waves of popularity and what's more, much more personality and importance than her.
In my opinion, this one is just as bad as Owain.
Want 0%
Within Fire Emblem, she was a pretty damn average character. She has nothing interesting to bring to Smash that other characters wouldn't bring. Every other female character had ten times more personality. What's more, with Fire Emblem being saturated with so many great choices for characters (Marth, Ike, Chrom, Lucina, Anna, Robin, Roy ... heck, if we're comparing, even Lyn), the inclusion of Tharja would be nothing short of a slap in the face as I see it. It'd be solid proof that the team has lost it and is catering to fanboy popularity instead of what genuinely represents Nintendo. And I'd truly hate that.
Prediction
Neku and Shiki - 0.45%
Seems that after Cole everyone has gone on full, unbridled zero percentage fury, and seeing a character that's tag-team (therefore time-consuming to program and balance), third party (therefore competing with Snake and Pac Man), pretty damn sleeper hit, and Square Enix ... yea, I don't expect people to have a shred of mercy.
Nominations
x5 Rhythm Heaven
talk about all that zero fever going on, now I'm concerned it's going to tremendously destroy Monkey's chances once he goes up for rating. Dammit Cole ...