Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Al-kīmiyā']

Andy chance=0.5%

Andy want=0.5% I'm not very interested in "gadget" characters.

Phoenix Wright prediction=0.5%

Nomination=5xNeku and Shiki

 

[Glaciacott]

Andy
Chance - 9%
The console wars series is definitely one that I would be interested in seeing represented in Smash, particularly due to the fact it has had so many iterations. While I think it's more likely we'll get a stage and items and such from console wars, I'd enjoy seeing a playable character. Especially since his play-style would be rather unique.

Want - 30%
Like I mentioned, it'd be interesting and I'd welcome it, BUT there's plenty of other characters I'd rather see.

Prediction
Phoenix Wright - 1.65%
Some people will undoubtedly rate him more than a zero. Even though his chances are obviously zero.

Nominations
x5 Rhythm Monkey

 

[Groose]

Phoenix Wright - 1.65%
Some people will undoubtedly rate him more than a zero. Even though his chances are obviously zero.

Phoenix's most defining characteristic is his undying faith in his clients. I fear his fans feel the same faith.

Andy: 3%
Want: 5%

Phonix Wright: 1.78%

x5 Chancellor Cole

Ghirahim: The Sky
Kamek: In the Clouds
Dixie Kong: Chimpanzee Clouds
Masked Man: Pink Cloud Shrine
Krystal: Cloudrunner Fortress (Spiral Pathway)
Ridley: Skytown
Waddle Dee: Sky Sands
Black Shadow: Cloud Carpet
Zoroark: Mistralton City

Bowser Jr.: World 7

Thank you very much! I'll get to this later.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

What's with all the sky references.

 

[Sid-cada]

Andy

Chance - 8% - He is the most likely Wars series character to get in, but that's kind of unlikely to happen. He has fairly good potential, but sadly with roster space kind of tight he probably won't make it.

Want - 77.5% - A set-up heavy character would be fairly interesting, and is my choice for a Wars rep.


Phoenix Wright Prediction - 0.15% - Mega Man brutally murdered whatever chance he had.

Nominations
Dark Matter X3
Hades X2

 

[ErictheLone]

Andy

c - 15%. The kid with the wrench has a shot. With the character pool shrinking after brawl, there's not as many obstacles for some of the pre-brawl hopefuls that fell short. There was of course the assist trophy, so we know Sakurai values the series to some extent. From what I've seen posted Andy could bring some exciting new mechanics to the battle, utilizing tanks, mechs, helicopters, and other military-type gadgetry.

w - 70% I've never played any of the Wars games, but I know the series has been around for a long time and has some seriously loyal fans, and I'm rooting for them to have their character playable. The same way I feel about Mike Jones. Not only that, but Andy sounds like a character that could be really fun, powerful and strategic at the same time.

phoenix wright - 5%

n -
Popeye x1
Mach Rider x2
NES Ice Hockey Fat Player x2

 

[FalKoopa]

Andy:
Likelihood: 18%
There is a possibility of getting an Advance Wars rep, but it's unlikely. Andy, however stands the best chance, should we get one.

Want: 50%
I haven't played Advance Wars, so I'm mostly indifferent. That said, he's cool and I think he's quite deserving.

Phoenix Wright prediction: 1%

Fawful x 5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Andy:

Chance: 20%
A wars rep is relatively unlikely, but it was a relatively popular series, and of all the possible Wars candidates Andy is the most likely. He was the face of the Advance Wars series alongside Sami and Max. The wars series is somewhat overshadowed by Fire Emblem as an IS series.

Want: 80%
Andy's moveset potential is insane, but the official Andy thread can do it far more justice than I ever could here. With the possibility to add unique mechanics such as area control, the ability to launch soldiers, tanks, military helicopters and the like he could be an interesting character with more than enough tools to be an exciting addition.

Phoenix prediction: 5%
3rd party. Biggest thing standing in Phoenix's way.

Nominations:
4 DK characters chances X 5

 

[Ephecus]

Andy

Chance: 7 %
Probably the highest chance of any AW-character, but his series has been inactive for a while and the latest iteration of AW didn't feature him.

Want: 50 %
I'd really like AW to be represented in some form or another because I love the series but I'm not really a fan of Andy himself.

Prediction:
Phoenix 1.1 %

Nominations:
5x C.Syrup

 

[colder_than_ice]

Andy
Chance: 6% - I don't know much about him, but he seems like he may have a small chance.
Want: 24% - He has potential for a unique moveset.

Phoenix prediction: 2%

Nominations: Aeron x5

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Andy

Chance: 2% - I don't think its happening myself, but that's just a personal hunch.

Want: 50% - Advance Wars was my first GBA game but even so I'm mostly indifferent.

Phoenix Wright Prediction: 1.2 - Most people are aware that third party characters are a long shot and Mr. Wright is no exception.

Nominations:
Rhythm Monkey x5

 

[Groose]

Andy Chance: 15%
Wars is a pretty big franchise. It may be dormant now, but it still left its mark. It's definitely sizable enough to deserve a character, but... there isn't an obvious choice. Andy doesn't really "sum up" the series as a whole, y'know? It's about tanks, troops, and tactics... and that's just hard to represent.

Andy Want: 15%
Not a huge fan of his design, and, as I stated in his chance section, he doesn't really sum up his franchise. I'd prefer something along the lines of a Wars stage than a Wars character, y'know? A stage in the middle of a modern battlefield would be much nicer than a character in this case.

Phoenix Wright Prediction: .61%
He'll lose to Sandbag and Primid... but only by a hair.

King K. Rool x5

DAY OVER

RETURN OF GROOSE ​

 

[Golden Icarus]

Darn it, I missed a day. Can I still use the 5 extra noms I got from yesterday's rating for today?

 

[Groose]

Andy (Wars)
9.60% chance
37.38% want

A pretty average day for Andy. Acceptable in chance, solid in want... it seems that he falls into the recent trend we've had with newcomers. I predict that this next newcomer will break said trend, however.

​

WRIGHT IS IN THE BUILDING! ​

Is the prosecution ready? Please leave your chance and want on Phoenix Wright today. Be sure to check out the music section, too---it's the second largest to date.


Tomorrow we'll be rating Majora's Mask Link. Will he have the power to become the third Link in the game? Please predict how Mask Link will fare in tomorrow's game. Today's prediction winner is none other than Opossum.

​

​

Darn it, I missed a day. Can I still use the 5 extra noms I got from yesterday's rating for today?

No problem.

​

​

 

[Pacack]

Peonix Wright:
Chance: >0.1%
This is the last character I expect to see, because Capcom already has Megaman.
Want: 12%
I like him, but I can't justify his inclusion whatsoever.

Prediction for Mask Link: .5%
Doubt anyone is actually thinking we'll get three links.

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Phoenix Wright

Chance: .008% - He's a third party character with non-existent request. I'm sorry if this sounds harsh, but he's got very little chance... if at all.

Want: 32% - Admittedly, he'd fit in better here than MVC3 but I'm not attached to the character. He could be fun, but I've never played an Ace Attorney game so...

Mask Link Prediction: 10% - He's just another version of Link.

Nominations:
Fawful x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Phoneix Wright chance: 1%
Phoneix Wright want: 50% A lawyer would cool to play as!
Masked Link Prediction: 12.7% It's a neat concept better than Toon Zelda.
Nominations:
x5 Dr. Kawashima.

 

[Curious Villager]

Phoenix Wright

Chance: 0%
As much as I'd love to see him, Megaman pretty much blew up his chances I'd say. :/
Want: 75%
I'd certainly would love to see him, but not as much as Layton or Rayman really. For now I think Megaman is enough for Capcom's slice of the pie.

Prediciction Masked Link: 2.5%
He's met with a terrible fate, hasn't he?

 

[Gam3rALO]

Ouch i missed a day...
Phoenix Wright:
Chance: 1%
Because of Mega Man

Want: 10%
I dont really hate him...

Prediction for Masked Link: 2.23%

Nominations
'No Brawl cuts' x5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

I have never played a phoenix wright game, nor have I done any research into him... mainly because, I without evidence, believe his chances to be close to nill.

I abstain my chance vote on lack of knowledge.

Want: 5%
Even though I've never played any of his games I'm aware of the memes, and think it would be fun to here them in smash bros... however I also believe (baselssly) that he'd be a terrible choice of character in terms of both gameplay and purpose. I am an advocate of Layton, and given the crossovers I have to assume the two series are similar in the story telling style (which from Layton is already quite distinctive compared to other visual novels I've played), but Layton is hugely popular among casual gamers (to the point of being several of my more casual friends' only DS games) while Ace Attorney (how is that pronounced the way it should be? phonetically speaking it should be attourney surely?) seems to be a very niche series from my experiences.

It's a shame too as I was hoping to run a joke through this post using alliterating terms with other types of law firm worker, like Brilliant Barrister or Leading Lawyer... but I'm too ignorant of the series to do so .


Deku, Zora and Goron: .22%
Lesbian-ist he's not happening, and no-one really thinks he will, we're all just playing chicken with the low percentages this time round.


Knuckles*5
(We'll trade like a stock exchange... WAIT! No! I've got the wrong rap in my head... DAMN YOU GROOSE!)

 

[Deleted member]

Phoenix Wright
Chance: 1%
Truthfully, I should really give a 0... but I am gonna be a bit generous. It's not like if Mega Man wasn't confirmed that I would give him a high score anyway. If Mega Man wasn't confirmed, I would give Phoenix 5%. But, he is and this obliterates Phoenix Wright's chances. He would probably be a shoo-in if he wasn't a Capcom character. The only true hope I see for Phoenix is if Sakurai shows immense favoritism towards Capcom and gives them a second rep.
Want: 45%
That being said however, Phoenix would actually be a cool character to play as. Seeing him in Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 makes me think of what kind of moveset he would get in a SSB game. However, I rather have Amaterasu.
Majora's Mask Link (With Masks) Prediction: .70%
Ever since September 26 when Toon Link got confirmed, his chances have met with a terrible fate. But come on... he can't do worse than Cloud, right? RIGHT?!
Nominations: Captain Rainbow 5x

 

[Groose]

[collapse=Judging]

​

Please listen to this music ​

​

We've gathered here today for the trial of Phoenix Wright. The question: will he be excluded from from the next Smash Bros. installment? ​

​

So, is the defense ready?​

​

The defense is ready, Your Honor.​

​

​

Is the prosecution ready?​

​

...​

...​

...​

Yes, Your Honor.​

​

Your opening statement, then, please.​

​

​

​

​

​

The prosecution has no comments to make at this time. I'd like to defer the ​

opening statement to Trite, Your Honor. I have a feeling he'll say something ​

that will win this trial for me, Your Honor.​

​

Geez... how bad at my job does he think I am?​

​

In that case... Mr. Wright? An opening statement, please?​

​

​

Very well, Your Honor. I'd like to correct a logical fallacy that is gripping this court.​

Many people are saying that I have no chance because another Capcom character,​

Mega Man, is already in the game. To this I say...​

​

​

​

​

​

Switch to this song​

In order for Capcom to have allowed Mega Man in the game, Nintendo has to be in contact ​

with them. This means that it is very possible for them to work in a second Capcom character ​

in addition to Mega Man. ​

​

​

The "one rep for Capcom" reasoning... is blatantly FALSE!​

​

​

Use this song.​

​

​

SINCE CAPCOM IS ALREADY IN COMMUNICATION WITH NINTENDO,​

THEY ARE MORE LIKELY TO ADD IN ANOTHER CHARACTER! ​

​

​

This seems reasonable, ind---​

​

​

​

​

Switch to this music.​

​

Although the prosecution concedes this may be the case...​

you have to admit that you are not popular, obvious, or requested enough to​

become a playable character in this loaded roster, Trite! You're popular in ​

Japan... but you're not legendary like the other contenders for a third-party rep!​

​

​

Why, yes, this seems reasonable! You just aren't on the cards, this time, Mr. Wr---​

​

​

​

​

... ​

​

Very well, then. I see that there are no objections, so I hereby declare the defendant, Phoenix Wright... ​

HIGHLY DOUBTFUL​

.5% chance​

​

​

But of course, since this took such a long time to make, it's quite obvious that you get a 100% want, Mr. Wright.​

[/collapse]

​

​

​

 

[AEMehr]

[collapse=Judging]

​

Please listen to this music ​

​

We've gathered here today for the trial of Phoenix Wright. The question: will he be excluded from from the next Smash Bros. installment? ​

​

So, is the defense ready?​

​

The defense is ready, Your Honor.

​

​

Is the prosecution ready?​

​

...​

...​

...​

Yes.​

​

Your opening statement, then, please.​

​

​

​

​

​

The prosecution has no comments to make at this time. I'd like to defer the ​

opening statement to Trite, Your Honor. I have a feeling he'll say something ​

that will win this trial for me, Your Honor.​

​

Geez... how bad at my job does he think I am?

​

In that case... Mr. Wright? An opening statement, please?​

​

Very well, Your Honor. I'd like to correct a logical fallacy that is gripping this court.
Many people are saying that I have no chance because another Capcom character,
Mega Man, is already in the game. To this I say...

In order for Capcom to have allowed Mega Man in the game, Nintendo has to be in contact
with them. This means that it is very possible for them to work in a second Capcom character
in addition to Mega Man.

This reasoning... is blatantly FALSE!

SINCE CAPCOM IS ALREADY IN COMMUNICATION WITH NINTENDO,
THEY ARE MORE LIKELY TO ADD IN ANOTHER CHARACTER!

​

This seems reasonable, ind---​

​

​

​

​

​

Although the prosecution concedes this may be the case...​

you have to admit that you are not popular, obvious, or requested enough to​

become a playable character in this loaded roster, Trite! You're popular in ​

Japan... but you're not legendary like the other contenders for a third-party rep!​

​

​

Why, yes, this seems reasonable! You just aren't on the cards, this time, Mr. Wr---​

​

​

...

​

Very well, then. I see that there are no objections, so I hereby declare the defendant, Phoenix Wright...
HIGHLY DOUBTFUL

​

.5% chance
But of course, since this took such a long time to make, it's quite obvious that you get a 100% want, Mr. Wright.

[/collapse]

​

​

​

​

Sorry pal, can't argue with that!​

Chance: 0.5%​

Want: 100%​

EDIT: Post 777​

looks like i got da dolla​

 

[Groose]

(We'll trade like a stock exchange... WAIT! No! I've got the wrong rap in my head... DAMN YOU GROOSE!)

That was the plan.

 

[Smasher 101]

Phoenix Wright's chances: 0.5%
Want: 70% - I do like Ace Attorney.

Masked Link's prediction: 0.63%

Sheik x5

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Chance: 0.01%
Want: 30%
Mask Link: 2%
Noms:
Yarne x 5

 

[DarkKry4]

Phoenix Wright

Chance - 0%
too tardy for the third party....

...slot

Want - 5%
never played his games

Masked Link: 3.5%

x3 Pauline
x2 Rosalina

 

[loganhogan]

Phoenix Wrong

chance: .5% I think Mega Man ate his chances.
want: 5%

x5 Funky Kong

 

[Zhadgon]

Phoenix Wright
Chance: .35% The Blue Bomber is a wall that Phoenix will not be able to climb.
Want: 80% Interesting character, I think Sakurai will be able to create a more unique moveset than Capcom in UMVC3.

Masked Link
Prediction: 1.00% He is toast, three Links will not happen, even if every fan of Zelda kneel to Sakurai to include him.

Nomination
Donbe and Hikari x 5

.n_n.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Phoenix Wright chance=0.5%

Phoenix Wright want=0.25% Is he just going to go around poking people with a giant finger again?

Majora's Masked Link prediction=1.5%

Majora's Masked Link want=90%

Nomination=5xNeku and Shiki

 

[Sid-cada]

Phoenix Wright

Chance - 0% - He might have had an itty bitty chance before, but until I get evidence, I am inclined to believe that no third party company will ever get more than one character.

Want - 0% - No offense to the fans, but I am firmly against multiple third party characters from the same company.


Majora's Mask Link Prediction - 0.35% - Toon Link already has the 2nd Link angle covered. We don't need any more.

Nominations
Dark Matter X3
Hades X2

 

[Glaciacott]

Phoenix Wright

Chance - 0.0001%
Even ignoring the fact that Mega Man has taken the Capcom spot, Phoenix Wright still doesn't quite match the sheer iconic status or popularity of other third party candidates. I would seriously be surprised that he was ever even thought of as a passing thought in someone's subconscious. Perhaps when someone thought of Professor Layton? Yea, Layton I could see. I think Nintendo when I see him. Wright, even with his staying power in Nintendo handhelds, just doesn't ellicit that sort of response from me.
I also have an issue with him being in this game after being included as a late addition to Marvel vs. Capcom 3.

And lastly we have Mega Man and no reason to give Capcom more than that. His chances are sealed.

Want - 0%
The only thing from Capcom I want even close to this game is Mega Man. That dream was fantastically fulfilled. Now all we need is Pac Man and the all-star paradise is complete

Prediction
Termina Link - 1.02%
Toon Link cannot be ignored when predicting his score.

Nominations
x5 Rhythm Monkey

 

[NickerBocker]

Wright

Chance: 1%
Want: 35%

Mask Link: 0.4%
Theres not going to be 3 Links, as sad as that makes me.

Nominations:
4 DKC characters x5

 

[Louie G.]

PHEONIX WRIGHT:

Chance: 2%
I don't really have to go into detail on this. There's already a Capcom rep anyway.

Want: 75%
Hardly anything is more satisfying than pointing your finger in someone's face and yelling "OBJECTION!" Would be fun to say the least.

Mask Link: 1%
Three Links?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvdf5n-zI14

Noms:
Snake x5

 

[Starcutter]

*Sees Groose's post* Oh man I gotta do some o dat!

Spoiler

The Prosecution calls Detective Gumshoe to the stand.

Please give a breif rundown of this case for us, Detective.

Alright, Pal.​

So Mr. Wright here has been in many DS games, as well as Wiiware re-releases and has been very loyal to Nintendo all these years, with the only notable exception having re-releases on iPod touch and iPhone. he has also been in a crossover fighter with many other capcom characters, such as zero from megaman, and Veiwtiful Joe from his game, as well as being in a puzzle crossover with a character in a similar situation, that being Professor Layton.​

Thank you for making my case for me Detective.​

As we can tell by the detective's testimony, I am not a shoo-in, but I do have a half decent chance!​

​

Why so reckless? This isn't the Wright I know!​

(Oh, great, what's HE got up his sleeve?)​

Although it IS true that you do have some pretty decent relations with nintendo, it is highly doubtful you will make it, specifically this piece of evidence.​

*evidence*​

The Director, Mr. Sakuri, has clearly stated: "I'm not going to have any character participate from other companies"​

What?!​

It is very clear that Mr. Wright here does have almost NO chance of getting in. Most likely a 3% chance AT MOST.​

That is.... completely untrue!​

What? can you prove me wrong?​

....No​

I see no further reason to prolong this trial. I announce a 3% chance verdict.​

Although we can all agree on 100% want.​

COURT ADJOURNED​

​

​

Masked link 5%​

Noms:​

Ammy x5​

[collapse=also, I drew something for this occasion.]

[/collapse]

 

[Groose]

*Sees Groose's post* Oh man I gotta do some o dat!

Spoiler

The Prosecution calls Detective Gumshoe to the stand.

Please give a breif rundown of this case for us, Detective.

Alright, Pal.​

So Mr. Wright here has been in many DS games, as well as Wiiware re-releases and has been very loyal to Nintendo all these years, with the only notable exception having re-releases on iPod touch and iPhone. he has also been in a crossover fighter with many other capcom characters, such as zero from megaman, and Veiwtiful Joe from his game, as well as being in a puzzle crossover with a character in a similar situation, that being Professor Layton.​

Thank you for making my case for me Detective.

As we can tell by the detective's testimony, I am not a shoo-in, but I do have a half decent chance!

​

Why so reckless? This isn't the Wright I know!​

(Oh, great, what's HE got up his sleeve?)

Although it IS true that you do have some pretty decent relations with nintendo, it is highly doubtful you will make it, specifically this piece of evidence.​

*evidence*​

The Director, Mr. Sakuri, has clearly stated: "I'm not going to have any character participate from other companies"​

What?!

It is very clear that Mr. Wright here does have almost NO chance of getting in. Most likely a 3% chance AT MOST.​

That is.... completely untrue!

What? can you prove me wrong?​

....No

I see no further reason to prolong this trial. I announce a 3% chance verdict.​

Although we can all agree on 100% want.​

COURT ADJOURNED​

Masked link 5%

Noms:
Ammy x5
[collapse=also, I drew something for this occasion.]

[/collapse]

Yeah, pretty sure you just made the greatest post in Smashboards history that wasn't made by Johnknight.

That art, too... damn...

 

[Toxicroaker]

Phonix Wright: 0%

Fine... 1%

"That's more like it"
Want: 50%

Masked Link: 0.99%

x5 Chancellor Cole

 

[Michael Blaine]

phoenix wright

0.001% chance
0% want

Masked Link 1%

Tingle x5

 

[XenothiumX]

Phoenix Wright
Likelihood: 1%

Want: 50% (indifferent)

Majora's Mask Link
Prediction: 5%

Slippy (Starfox) x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Phoenix Wright:
Chance: 0.8%
Despite loyalty to Nintendo, Phoenix has little to no chance of making it in; partly due to Megaman. We have no idea if multiple characters from a single 3rd party company could be allowed in, but it seems doubtful.
Is Phoenix legendary? Not to the extent of the other third parties; Sonic, Megaman and even Snake far outstrip him in terms of popularity, want and iconicness. He's popular in his own Wright, but not enough to be included in Smash.

Want: 75%
Still a very fun character to play with and his games are enjoyable enough.

Masked Link: 0.6
No to three Links. That's overkill.

Nominations:
5 X 4 DK characters