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Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

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Louie G.

Smash Hero
Joined
Aug 21, 2013
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9,783
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Rhythm Heaven
LITTLE MAC:

Chance: 99.99999999999999%
He is probably the character I am most confident about.

Want: 100%
I LOVE Punch Out. Such a great game, it's disappointing how long it took to get Little Mac in (that is if he makes it). Little Mac would be amazing, and I will probably be crying tears of joy when he is revealed.

SUKAPON:

Chance: 2.5%
Alright, so...
Sukapon is cool. He's a great retro choice, and he is the main character of arguably the first Nintendo fighting game made. That being said, there is one thing that practically guarantees that Sukapon WILL NOT MAKE IT.
Sakurai himself said so.
Sakurai said: "Don't expect Sukapon any time soon."
He means, don't expect Sukapon any time soon.
He won't happen because word of God confirms so.

Want: 85%
I like him.

Andy Prediction: 5.25%
I don't see him working, and when was the last Advance Wars released?

Noms:
No Brawl Cuts x5
 

Yams

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 12, 2013
Messages
232
Location
AG, CA
Sukapon
Likelihood: 10.06% Sakurai saying that we shouldn't expect Sukapon means nothing. He cut the Villager from Brawl and changed his mind, so who says Sukapon isn't in the same situation? He represents a whole lot and is a cool character, but I don't see him beating Takamaru, Muddy Mole, or the Duck Hunt Dog as retro reps.
Want: 100% One of my most wanted characters.

Little Mac
Likelihood: 90% I would be shocked if he didn't make it.
Want: 100% My second most wanted character.

Andy: 8%

Muddy Mole x5
 

shinhed-echi

Smash Hero
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Skukapon:
Likelyhood: 15%
What brings his chances down for the most part are two things.
1.- Sakurai could not make him work in the past for many reasons, so he might have lost interest in him.
2.- Sukapon's game being a "traditional" 2D fighter makes his inclusion all that more sketchy after Sakurai mentioned how fighting game characters wouldn't bring all that much new elements into Smash.
Though to be honest, I could see him work, but like Sakurai said, not bringing anything really new.
(He can throw his head as a projectile... head aside, plenty characters do that. He has a rolling move... Sonic, Jiggs, and Yoshi already do that. etc)

Want: 50%
I have a lot more wants before him, but it'd be kind of neat to see yet another robot in SSB4. Especially since his story is so extremely similar to Megaman's I could see a potential Robo-mance going on.



Little Mac:
Likelyhood 95% (cause you never know... Everything should point at Little Mac's inclusion, but Sakurai is known for not thinking like everyone does)

Want: 100%
Little Mac is my 2nd most wanted character, and I'm a HUGE fan of Punch Out. He and the rest of the characters in his universe are so memorable and full of character (Little Mac falls under the silent hero category, obviously, but still has a lot of personality even for that).
This guy should have been playable since the very first SSB, especially since in SSB64 the movesets were all so much simpler.
But yeah, he's basically the ONLY Nintendo All Star hero that has gone UNrepresented for so long.


x5 Mike Jones
 

Gam3rALO

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Gam3rALO
Sukapon:
Chance: 3%
I don't see it happening...

Want: 1%
Nah

Little Mac:
Chance: 90.5%
Leak, Boxing Stage, relevant, etc. These are HUGE pluses for Mac.

Want: 80%
I grew on to him!

Prediction for Andy: 4.49%

Nominations:
Paper Mario x5
 

XenothiumX

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 27, 2013
Messages
418
Sukapon
Likelihood: 10%

Want: 15%
I feel like I should say something... but I don't know what to say about this character because he's a wild card.

Lil' Mac
Likelihood: 82.5%
I don't believe in the rumor leak, however, I think that his recent game has made him a Nintendo all-star character once again. It would be a narrow minded mistake to not include this character.

Want: 100%
mainly because I feel that he deserves a spot in Smash, I don't know if I would main him, but, I would like to see how he plays.

Andy
Prediction: 6.5%

Majora's Mask Link x5
 

SchAlternate

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I've long since ran out of puns.
Likelihood: 20% - Given, he's too obscure, and Sakurai stated we shouldn't expect him, but he's viable. Give him a kickass redesign and maybe we'll become slightly more appealing.
Want: 75% - Not my most wanted character, but still up there.

*Insert McDonalds joke*
Likelihood: 99.9% - Nothing is certain, but he's pretty much confirmed at this point.
Want: 100% - No reason to not like this guy.

Woody's owner?
Prediction: 5% - I. DON'T. KNOW.

Nominations
Absolute Zero x5

Sukapon:
Chance: 3%
Third party...
He's actually first party, silly.
 

SchAlternate

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Erimir

Smash Lord
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DC
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Sukapon

Popularity: He's probably even forgotten in Japan. But he's a retro, so that doesn't matter that much.

Relevancy: Lead character in Nintendo's first fighting game. But he was Japan only.

Design: A bit odd. He has moves, of course. The animations might need some work, and he'd have some wonky hitboxes and so forth. He's doable, but he'd be more work than many characters getting the balance right and keeping him from being confusing to watch on the screen (I watched some clips from the NES game and it was a little confusing). Even Rayman, who is similar, would not be so bad since his body mostly stays in the same configuration and his body parts don't fly all over the place.

Roster and Competition: We might expect one to two retros on the basis of Melee(Ice Climbers + Mr. Game & Watch) and Brawl(Pit + R.O.B.). And Little Mac may or may not count as one of them (yes, he had that Wii game, but that was after a 15 year hiatus). Takamaru, Mech Rider and some other characters are on the list. I don't know if we should expect two retros. After all, at some point Sakurai will decide all the important retro characters have been done. He might think there's only one, or none, worth putting in. Or at least none from the pre-SNES or pre-N64 eras. This is probably the last game I'd expect any NES newcomer.

Sakurai comments: He said not to expect Sukapon. Now, he might change his mind about it. But unlike the Villager, this comment wasn't based on Sukapon not being a fighter. So while Sakurai might change his mind, we don't have any evidence that he's changed his mind about Sukapon. We might rate other non-violent characters higher because of the Villager (i.e. almost as high as if they were fighters), but that certainly doesn't apply to Sukapon. So I think Sakurai's comment should still carry a fair amount of weight.

Sukapon chances: 0.9%
Most retros don't rate that high, in general. I think there are a fair number of choices but also that the remaining pre-SNES era characters are not the greatest bunch. And he's pretty obscure. And he'd not be the easiest to implement. And Sakurai's anti-Sukapon comments still matter. All adds up to Sukapon being a pretty surprising choice. He's still possible though.

Sukapon want: 40%
I really don't care that much. But I'd prefer a lot of other characters.

Little Mac re-rate

I don't really think much has changed from when I rated him before. There's no new information specific to him, the only thing we've gotten is general.

His major plus points are the stage, his Western popularity, and his recent well-received and decently selling Wii game. He might also count as a retro, sort of. If it weren't for the Wii game, he'd certainly be the most likely retro. Also, it's not necessary that the boxing ring have the Punch-Out logo on it, and it would also be extremely easy to change for pre- and post-Little Mac reveal screen shots, since it's simply a design that goes on a flat surface. The stage otherwise looks pretty much just like the Punch-Out ring.

What has changed is that I'm slightly more optimistic about the number of characters. But I'm also slightly more pessimistic about Little Mac. In the end, it's about a wash.

Little Mac chances: 82%

Little Mac want: 59%
I'm coming around a little bit.

Andy prediction: 9%
Brawl was the best time to put a Wars character in. But he's still got a shot.

Nominations:
Sheik x5
I like seeing that Sheik is racing up the nominations list. Hopefully we can get all the veterans done quickly (even though, yes, Pichu and Young Link are going to get obliterated).


Statistics
Also, I'm going to have some statistics in a little bit. Maybe Groose will want to put them in the OP. They'll be our benchmarks of what we want to beat in accuracy.

I can tell you right now that the previous iteration of the game will do pretty horribly, because they massively overestimated the number of characters (in other words, they massively overrated everyone but the most obvious choices like Diddy). So I will try out some transformations to apply to the data like normalizing the probabilities to the actual roster size. That way I can apply the same transformations to our predictions to produce normalized predictions.

If we rate the likelihood of different roster sizes or at least get an average expected roster size, I can even use that information to produce a normalized score that takes that into account. That would make our individual character ratings consistent with our expectations with the roster size.
 

Aqua Rock X

Smash Ace
Joined
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Messages
717
Location
Tennessee
Sukapon

Chance: .5% - One of the few characters to be denied by Sakurai. I don't see it happening to be honest.

Want: 15% - Meh.

Little Mac

Chance: 65% - Ok, I have been convinced that the boxing ring stage is a Punch Out stage. The score is the same as last time, however, because there could always be a "Smashville situation".

Want: 30% - The same as last time. He just doesn't interest me.

Andy Prediction: 2.5% - I don't think people see an Advance Wars character as very likely or even very desired.

Nominations:
Victini x5
 

Golden Icarus

Smash Lord
Joined
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1,132
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USA
Sukapon
Chance 6%
As a retro candidate, he's definitely viable. But like any retro character, his chances are decreased by all the other retro contenders, so his chances still aren't spectacular.
Want 80%
Really I'm very happy with any classic character joining the fray. As long as it's not the generic duo (Mike Jones and Urban Champion).

Little Mac
Chance 90%
I hate rating a character this high, and I'll probably never do it again, but there's really not much standing in his way. But who knows, his Eastern popularity could prevent him from joining.
Want 90%
I've never played Punch-Out, but even I know that he just deserves to be in at this point.

Andy prediction 9.3%

Nomination
No Brawl Cuts x5
 

Pacack

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Sukapon:

Chance: 2%
Being denied by Sakurai is a big thing. Sad, but true.

Want: 90%
My fourth most wanted character simply because I love how quirky he is.


Little Mac:

Chance: 75%
I don't see it nearly as likely as many of the people around here, but I still see him as one of the most likely characters.

Want: 20%
I'd be happy for the Little Mac supporters, but I never played any of his games, so I don't find him all that interesting, myself. Not much of a fan of boxing, either. Just personal preference, though.

Prediction for Andy: 9%?
I just don't see much support for him around here. I couldn't care less about him, myself.
 

Groose

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tl;dr No update until Monday, Groose is busy; updates definitely returned to normal within 1-2 weeks.

I'm really sorry for the way things have been working out, guys. I'm trying the best I can to hold things together, but my life has been pretty hectic over the past couple of weeks. I'm trying to be as open with you as I can.

I've got four AP classes, a stack of college application essays, work, all that jazz. Normally, I'd be able to handle it, no sweat, but the thing that's really bogging me down is the whole college process... ugh. Fortunately, I have all of my essays drafted and have things pretty much under control now. Another week, two tops, and I should be out of the woods.

I remember over the summer... I missed two update days and both of them were due to surgeries and being doped up on the painkillers that came with them. But now... in the past week, I've missed three days just because of sheer busyness. I apologize for this; I prioritize this game as much as I can.

For another week or two, my normally clockwork update schedule will probably still be messed up. By that I mean I may miss a day or two per week. The music section is, despite the best efforts of Toxicroaker, still in a bit of shambles. I'll get to that in time, too and I'll definitely include all 20+ tracks I have planned for Phoenix Wright. After a week or so, things should return to complete normalcy.

I WILL NOT ABANDON RTC! I enjoy it all as much as you do. It's a priority for me... I'm also judging the soundtrack contest, but that is second fiddle to this. If I have some free time to go on the computer, it will be on RTC. I'm just not sure if I'll have that time.
Statistics
Also, I'm going to have some statistics in a little bit. Maybe Groose will want to put them in the OP. They'll be our benchmarks of what we want to beat in accuracy.

I can tell you right now that the previous iteration of the game will do pretty horribly, because they massively overestimated the number of characters (in other words, they massively overrated everyone but the most obvious choices like Diddy). So I will try out some transformations to apply to the data like normalizing the probabilities to the actual roster size. That way I can apply the same transformations to our predictions to produce normalized predictions.

If we rate the likelihood of different roster sizes or at least get an average expected roster size, I can even use that information to produce a normalized score that takes that into account. That would make our individual character ratings consistent with our expectations with the roster size.
Sounds good, I'll definitely put something like that in the OP.

No time right now but I do have links to previous rtc games that may interest you i can send to you next time i have chance
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Good luck with what you are busy with Groose! I'll definitely be busy mid-November thanks to college.
 

SchAlternate

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Well, at least I don't have to worry any updates for a while! I've been really busy lately, so yeah! See ya later Groose!

Damn it, it was on Sukapon's day, too.
 

PK_Wonder

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 19, 2010
Messages
1,179
I was going to give Sukapon a 5% chance, but 1 in 20 just seems too low for this quirky retro fighter, so let's boost it to about 8%

Little Mac gets a 73%

predict Andy 5%

nominate Victini x3, Dark Samus x2
 

Ephecus

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jul 9, 2013
Messages
108
Location
Austria
Sukapon

Chance: 8 %
He has potential to be a good retro rep and I'd probably give him around 20 % if Sakurai didn't dismiss him.

Want: 75 %
I'd honestly really appreciate it if he'd make it in. Not one of the most wanted newcomers, but one of my most wanted retro reps.

Little Mac

Chance: 75 %
He's probably going to make it in. His stage is confirmed already and his franchise got a nice reboot on the Wii.

Want: 45 %
I'm not really attached to him despite playing Punch-Out.

Andy Prediction: 4 %
His franchise lacks sequels on the 3DS as well as any recent home console.

Nominations:
5x C.Syrup
 

Gam3rALO

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Didn't know Sukapon was actually first party, awkward!:facepalm:

EDIT: I just changed it now
 

Glaciacott

Smash Lord
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Aug 4, 2013
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1,628
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Mintendo Noodle House
Sukapon
Chances - 1%
Even ignoring the whole "Sakurai doesn't want him" argument, I think he's just not that likely. Doesn't do much as a retro, especially when other retros carry some bit of history/connections with them. Like, for example, Kid Icarus having been the sister franchise to Metroid and just having got lost in time, and now Takamaru's game being the only of four 1986 Nintendo first-party games not represented.

Want - 20%
Pretty meh about him. It'd be a quirky inclusion and a weird character, but really, there are so many other characters that merit inclusion first.

Little Mac
Chances - 90%
I'm going to overrate him because I really see him as being that likely. The stage is already there and we all know it's a Punch-Put stage, the details just really are too convincing. Add to this how iconic the franchise is and how wanted he is, and we have a pretty solid chance he's already in the game. At this point, the WTF decision is him NOT being in the game, which from my perspective is an honor shared with unconfirmed veterans.

Want - 100%
One of my most wanted characters by far. Really fun game series even though to this day I haven't been able to beat Punch-Out and I haven't played the Wii version.

Prediction
Andy - 10.34%
One of the characters in that huge nomination list that I feel really merits rating. I'm optimistic in that people will be gentle to the fact the console wars series has been ongoing for a while, even though regrettably it has been dormant during this generation.

Nominations
x5 Rhythm Monkey
 

BlitznBurst

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 25, 2013
Messages
723
**** I missed Wonder Red? Damn

I won't be rating sukapon since I have never heard of him in my life

Little Mac chances: 90%. Sakurai himself has called him legendary. He's one of the most requested characters in the west. He has a recent game on the Wii. I'd say he's one of the most likely newcomers

want: 90%.

Andy prediction: 5%
 

Cheezey Bites

Slime Knight
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Sukapon:

Chance: 0%
I think he's ineligible as a fighting game character already. While he's retro enough to maybe get a pass, I don't think it will be the case. While some may argye the 'not a fighter' Villager changed, one has to look at popularity there, which Sukapon just doesn't have.

Want: 30%
SchAlternate's redesign has made me kinda cool with him, I still think there'd be better choices, but he'd be passable.


Little Mac:

Chance: 95%
I like to call them the big 4: K.Rool, Ridley, Mewtwo and Little Mac. They are some of the most notable characters left for Nintendo, with great fan demand, music for the trailers, and the chances for huge hype generation. Palutena and Bowser Jr. sit in a close 5th and 6th respectively, but those 4 will always sit in the mid-90s by my reckoning. Plus Mac has his redesign making him look less rediculous than the AT in Brawl, so yay!

Want: 80%
He's a boxer, and while I love the character, boxers aren't all that interesting compared to purple space dragons or say a cowboy armadillo. He'd probably be great to play, and that music alone would make the trailer awesome enough to pop that want up a bit, but without the trailer released I currently want him, but don't have any specific reason to be excited for him.YMMV


Andy: 11%
The most likely wars rep, and the series is notable, but it's no Fire Emblem which is IS's big title. I just don't see him getting that high, though I do think IS deserves more praise in Smash...


Knuckles *5
(Insert lyrics from his terrible rap theme, I'm too tired)
 

Groose

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Sukapon's Chance: 5%
Sakurai's comment against Sukapon from back in the Melee days only serves to HELP Sukapon. Opinions change over time... but we know that Sakurai at least recognizes the little guy. The thing that really hurts him is the recent "don't expect fighting game characters" thing... Joy Mech Fight it a fighting game and Sukapon is a fighting game character. It doesn't entirely rule him out, but it does severely hurt him.

Sukapon Want: 33%
I don't really have any attachment to him, but he'd make a fairly interesting fighter and his simple design does kind of fit with the Nintendo cast.

Little Mac's Chance 70%
I like his odds. The Boxing Ring, the "leak," Assist Trophy status, a recent game, popularity, relatively straightforward design, iconicness... none of these things can alone a playable character make, but they pile up. Mac has just so much going in his favor... easily in the top five logical likely newcomers.

Little Mac Want: 100%
I love Punch-Out and I think a boxing character would be a neat addition. Add in the increased representation it would bring, and... I'm sold.

Andy Prediction: 7.36%
Complete stab in the dark. No reasoning behind this one.

King K. Rool x5
*Insert Diddy Drop Rap here*
DAY OVER

RETURN OF GROOSE
 

Groose

Smash Champion
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Sukapon (Joy Mech Fight)
5.44% chance
37.89% want

Not the best day for Sukapon, as his chance score was pretty low. But he did have a bit of a following, so he probably isn't too upset.

Little Mac (Punch-Out)
88.11% chance (previously 83.59%)
77.00 % want (previously 73.22%)

TKO! Little Mac jumped right out there with a few high ratings and a right hook and never let his naysayers off the ropes. This is the first time a character has been rated at 50% or higher by every single voter since I've adopted RTC... and it may very well be the first time it's happened in the current game. Mac baby is just merely 2% back from MEWTWO in chance and 2% back from King K. Rool in want.

Today we'll be rating Andy... hailing from Advance Wars, he's no stranger to a fight. Will he be called to duty in Smash? Or will he be left behind in support? Please rate Andy in both chance and want today.


Well, that's all for today. I'll be seeing you later.
Ah. Right. Wright. It seems that I forgot to mention... the trial of Mr. Phoenix Wright will commence tomorrow. Please predict the verdict in the case of Phoenix Wright. Scoring close to the actual score may net you extra nominations. Golden Icarus wins five extra nominations today. The nominations winner from the previous day was Jaytalks; I forgot to mention this last time. Sorry I forgot about you, pal. Enjoy the extra five.
I'm also working on the verterans/newcomers and music sections right now. Give me a half hour and they'll be up to date.
 

Cheezey Bites

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Andy:
I always associated Wars more with Nell as a character, but I'm aware wonder boy the mechanic is the protagonist, so I shall rate him as such.

Chance: 8%
Honestly Possible. His moveset may be less obvious but the Wars series is a pretty big deal, even if Days of Ruin was fitting to it's name. Wars may just about deserve the rep, but as I've already said, Intelligent Systems has a far bigger game series to it's name, and Wars is kinda passed, thanks in part to Days of Ruin. There hasn't been any developments to rectify this since then either... IF IS have something cooking up then I could see Sakurai knowing about it, otherwise though I think Wars missed their chance and are staying an AT... The question is what's IS' unannounced Wii U title? And sadly for Orange Star I don't think it's a Wars title...
There's a chance I wrong, chance that he'll get in anyway, or that he wouldn't be the choice for AW... but I think these chances are small enough to balance to less than 10% chance.

Want: 25%
Uninterested. He's perhaps worthy of the slot, and I do like his games, but the COs are not interesting, and Nell's the character I associate with most, so just as a Wars rep I'd personally prefer her. I like Intelligent Systems and their Wars series, but the only one I really want to see a playable character from is Dragon Quest Wars...


Knuckles*5
(Just believe in yourself [Knuckles] don't rely on others)
 

Starcutter

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Andy:25%
Want: 50% indifferent.

Phoenix Wright:
Well, according to the data,

Capcom already has one rep, that being megaman. I'm willing to bet that since capcom has megaman in already, not many people would even THINK about phoenix wright.


That's why, only a 2.4% grade prediction will be given to the one and only....




YOU! PHOENIX WRIGHT!



























Noms: Eevee x5
 

Pacack

Super Pac-Fan
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Andy Chances: 5%?
I don't see him as likely, but I don't think he's entirely impossible.

Andy Want: 14%
Not a huge fan, but I like blowing things up, so that's a plus.

Pheonix Wright prediction: .8%
Only because people will be too nice and not give him .0001% chance. I honestly would have preferred him over Mega Man, but that's just my preference.

Nominations:
Daitoryo x5
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Great work there, Mac! I REALLY hope to see him enter the ring this month... please Sakurai.
Andy
Chance: 5%
He is a well-known character from Advance Wars. Unfortunately for him however, Advance Wars hasn't seen a release for a while I believe. I would be rather surprised to see him for that reason. If there were to be an Advance Wars character, it would be him... but he should have been on the Smash boat in Brawl where he had better chances.
Want: 30%
I believe that he would have an interesting moveset and that makes me kinda want him. However, I rather have other characters first.
Phoenix Wright Prediction: 2.53%
Sakurai would have to show signs of favoritism for Capcom to get him in this game.
Nominations: Captain Rainbow 5x
 

Louie G.

Smash Hero
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ANDY:

Chance: 5%
He isn't impossible, and he can rep a new franchise, but Advance Wars is a game about fighting in war machines. Andy can't necessarily fight for himself. His chances are very low, as there are many better choices. Just stick with Tanks and Infantry. Plus, Advance Wars has been dormant for a little while.

Want: 10%
He's okay, but he's a character I truly cannot see working.

Phoenix Right prediction: 3.25%
His chances are almost none because of Mega Man. Without MM, his chances wouldn't be high either.

Noms:
Meowth x5
 

Zhadgon

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Andy
Chance: 15% If Sakurai is looking to surprise some people and get a unique moveset a character from Advance Wars would be ideal, not only that it has at least some chances seeing that at least it had an Assist Trophy in SSBB so maybe Sakura could see some potential on the series and reconsider to even get a playable character.
Want: 80% By far one of my most beloved series with unique style and only few games that take the strategy genre and develop it with a exceptional high level and even keeping it simply but at the same time very deep because of the strategy, if a character is created with this formula it would have a interesting moveset and a very different gamestyle from any other player that we have seen on Smash.

Phoenix Wright
Prediction: .51% he is doomed... because of a Blue Robot getting in first.

Nomination
Donbe and Hikari x 5

.n_n.
 

McDuckletts

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Andy

Chance: 9%

Never played an Advance Wars game before...

Want: 20%

...Though it would be nice to see a new franchise get a rep in Smash. Hey, they might even make a new AW game if he's popular enough in Smash.

Phoenix Wright predictions: 0.1%

Yeah, nah, it ain't happening.

Nominations:
Banjo-Kazooie X3
Heracross X2
 

SchAlternate

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 9, 2013
Messages
4,795
Location
Whatever remained of Zebes
NNID
SchAlternate
Switch FC
SW-4691-2422-5427
Andy
Likelihood: 10% - I really feel like he's not gonna make it...
Want: 10% - I've never played Advance Wars, so I have no connection with him.

OBJECTION!!
0.3% - OVERRULED!!

Nominations
Divide by Zero x5
 

Smasher 101

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 21, 2013
Messages
1,046
Location
USA
3DS FC
0877-3649-6314
Switch FC
SW-7628-2111-0913
Andy's chances: 10%
Want: 85%

Phoenix Wright prediction: 0.63%

Sheik x5
 
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