I'm abstaining on Alexandra.
I am attempting to stay as unbiased as possible for this next rating:
(Original Art
here. I edited it slightly. Artist goes by Quas-quas.)
Pros:
A: Smash-original character
B: Popular, although not as a character request
C: Could be fairly unique if done right.
D: Sakurai likes throwing curveballs.
Cons:
V: No limbs.
W: Largely seen as a joke request.
X: Has some competition in the form of Master Hand, Primid, Tabuu, and the like.
Y: Already had a couple curveballs, so there's competition from historical reps like Daitoryo and Diskun and from other darkhorse candidates like Chibi-Robo and Kamek.
Z: Previously an item.
Sandbag is a controversial character that has merit, but also some serious issues. In my opinion, the detractors rate him too low (Seriously? You're putting him among the ranks of Yarne + Owain and Athena Cykes? Really?
I am ashamed with all of you people who consider yourselves serious raters.) and the supporters rate him too high (Really? 50% likelyhood? You do realize that that would put him up there with
Shulk and
Takamaru, right? I mean, I get it. You're trying to boost his score, but
really?).
The way I see it, a lot of his cons are actually fairly easy to counter, but his pros don't help him enough.
A: Smash-original character? How do we know that that's even important to Sakurai?
B: Popular, but not as a character request? Doesn't really help him a lot, honestly. Only character requests seem to matter.
C: Could be unique? Well, sure, most anyone could, but is that enough? And he's not even obviously unique, either.
D: Sakurai likes throwing curveballs? Well, like I said, he's already done a couple of those, and he isn't the most obvious character for a curveball either.
V: No limbs? Artistic license is a thing. Look at that image above.
W: Largely seen as a joke request? When has that ever mattered to Sakurai?
X: Master Hand, Primid, and Tabuu are against him? Wow, such strong competition.
Y: Already seen a couple curveballs? Doesn't mean he's done with them. Zero Suit Samus was a curveball in Brawl times. Doesn't mean R.O.B. didn't make it.
Z: Previously an item? So was Charizard. Roles can change.
So let me try to do this mathematically. Yay random number values. Pros add percent and cons take away percent.
A=13% (Might be a point in his favor, but probably doesn't matter.)
B=7% (Doesn't help much, but still helps.)
C=6% (Sakurai may see potential in him, but there's no evidence to support that.)
D=9% (Kinda helps.)
V=1% (Largely null point.)
W=4% (Lack of serious character requests does hurt, but it's still requests.)
X=6% (Not strong competition at all.)
Y=14% (Does hurt a lot, but not even close to definitive.)
Z=2% (Starfy and Toad show that, sometimes, Sakurai wants characters in a specific position. However, Charizard and Little Mac show that he may change his mind.)
So let's see. (13+7+6+9)-(1+4+6+14+2)=8%
8% Chance. That sound fair? That's between 1/20 and 1/10 chance, which is unlikely, but definitely more than possible.
Want: 85%
I'd love it. Assuming a Smash-original character that uses Smash-original stuff to fight (primarily the wooden home-run bat) would be awesome. My personal vision of him has him with summonable projectiles that he (and he alone, probably) could hit with his bat, along with simple, but strong physical attacks with his bat. He would rely on hard hits and powerful projectiles that barrage the foe, but would be really easy to knock away (cause he's a literal punching bag) along with being kinda slow, since he's more used to being moved than moving himself. Oh, for the record, he wouldn't be a generic Sandbag either. He'd have distinct traits and whatnot. I mean, there are obviously multiple "Sandbag" characters, since you can have multiples of his item on the screen at once. Wouldn't have any problems.
Now that that's done, predictions:
Shantae: 1.2%
Throwing a number out there.
Unlockable characters: 85%
Isn't this confirmed with Mega Man's trailer? Seriously, why wouldn't it be showing up?
Nominations: Snake x5