Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Rockaphin]

Adam:
Chance: 0.5%
Want: 0%

Two DK Newcomers:
Chance: 10%
Want: 90%
I really want K. Rool, but both K. Rool and Dixie would be cool. Personally.

Predictions:
Pikmin Captain Trio: 2.7%
Hanafuda: 7%

Nominations:
Paper Mario Stage x5

 

[andimidna]

I am aware and I know that other people think this, which is why I've explained this multiple times.

It was not by accident that Diddy wasn't revealed before Tropical Freeze's release date, and that's where your reasoning falls apart.

Diddy could've been revealed whenever Sakurai wanted. Sakurai could've revealed him in November and Dixie for Tropical Freeze. So the fact remains that Tropical Freeze's release still would've been a great time to reveal Dixie, and Sakurai instead chose to reveal Diddy only. He had plenty of time to plan out the reveals.

The only thing is that it should've been obvious earlier that Dixie wasn't getting revealed for Tropical Freeze. Once it got to be February without seeing Diddy, it should've been clear she wasn't getting revealed.

The Newcomers so far have not been revealed for a certain game. Just for E3 and Nintendo Directs. Rosalina is the only one that even links to a game, I think. And it was already linked through Peach anyways. Funny thing is, the site for 3d world doesn't even mention Rosalina because she's a "spoiler"... or at least that's how it was last time I checked. If Wii Fit U, New Leaf, and a Megaman game all had come out in June 2013, I might consider this theory.
But since none of that is the case, and only veterans have been tied to games, I can't and I won't.

I think it may hurt the chances of 2 DK newcomers though...
But Sakurai could easily reveal one at E3 and keep one secret.
It's only March... if we rate the possibility of 2 DK newcomers after E3, and at that point we only have DK and Diddy still, I'll vote MUCH lower.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

I am authorized to give Adam Malkovich a 0.1%

Well, he is kind of important.......in like, two games....one of them being Other M.

And of course, why on Earth would he get in over Ridley?

Random guy: Because Ridley is too bi-(bricked)

No way would he get in before Dark Samus either. Heck, even Anthony Higgs is more likely than this guy, at least that guy is actually rather well liked, considered one of the better parts of Other M.

There is absolutely no reason for him to get in, I'm only being generous giving him 0.1% in chance due to the fact that he is a Nintendo character and thus is eligible for Smash.

Want - 0%

Not interested in him at all whatsoever.

Ridley first, then Dark Samus or Anthony, and no Adam, thank you very much.

Since Adam is not authorized to argue with me, I shall now get on the rating I looked greatly forward to.

So, let's get down to business. Dixie would have been a great reveal for Tropical Freeze's release, but at the same time, so was Diddy. (and Cranky I guess, but his best chance is as an Assist Trophy)

I don't really think Dixie's chances are hurt all that much. Both K. Rool and Dixie were very likely candidates for Smash 4 from the start.

Dixie's pros and cons:

+Relatively popular.
+Recently made a comeback in Tropical Freeze.
+Important to the franchise.
+Was planned for Brawl.
+Luigi-fiable clone material.

-Not nearly as unique as K. Rool. Clone Material could also mean she may be skipped out on or low priority and may once again be scrapped.
-Not as popular as K. Rool.
-Was not revealed for Tropical Freeze's release.

K. Rool's pros and cons:

+Easily unique and has huge potential. Seems like a character that would be right up Sakurai's alley.
+One of the most popular choices among potential Smash 4 newcomers.
+Very important to the franchise.

-Has not appeared in a game since 2008, his latest appearance being in Mario Super Sluggers.
-Dixie may be revisited first due to being planned in Brawl.

Overall, I think K. Rool is the more likely of the two, being more popular, and having huge potential. Uniqueness seems to be a huge thing this time around too.

At least one DK newcomer is practically guaranteed. Both of them have enough going for both of them to get in, but also just enough going against them for one to be left out. Diversity in the roster might stop the DK franchise from getting them both as well, but the thing is, if any franchise is going to get 2 more characters, DK is easily the best and most likely one. Mario managed to get 1 newcomer this time around, so that helps in my eyes as well.

Lastly, I fully doubt that Dixie not being paired with Diddy as a tag team character this time hurts her chances. This is mainly because Diddy had already made it in Brawl without her and ended up just fine. I think it would've been too much of an alteration to Diddy, those who main him would have to drastically change their strategies. It's the same case with characters like Ganondorf, who needs to be either revamped or at the very least, buffed, considering how he is considered one of the worst characters in Brawl.


Taking all this into consideration, I believe the overall chance of both of these two particular DK characters getting in this installment of Smash as being just a little lower than something that end up going either way.

Two DK newcomers chance - 45%


Want - 100%
YES PLEASE! This is coming from someone who hasn't played any of the original DKC games, but someone who has seen enough footage of the game for that alone to like them.

K. Rool would be an awesome character, and though I want Dixie a little less, I still think they are both deserving enough to fully want this.

It'd be nice to have Cranky too once they both get in. Here's hoping for him to get into a 5th Smash game, if one ever comes to be.

Drake's crew prediction - 1.53%

Expecting a little bit of generosity.

Non-character Hanafuda representation - 38.22%

I'd be rather surprised if there was no mention of the Hanafuda this time around, but I can see why others wouldn't be. I might just end up predicting this to be WAY to high, but we'll see how it goes.

Spyro x5

 

[Erimir]

I dunno, that still sounds kind of dumb.

Rosalina is the only one who has had some relevance to her reveal when it's come to tie in games and that was 3D World, which is vague at best since it wasn't even on the release date just 'around' it. Not exactly concrete evidence that newcomers are tied in to game releases.

Have I missed something important with Little Mac's reveal date?

Little Mac is not from a series with any upcoming games. Rosalina is a sample of one.

What we do know is that many veterans have been revealed close to or on release dates, and there's no reason to believe that they would not reveal a newcomer in tandem with a game release. Sure, probably to go along with a Nintendo Direct, but there have been Nintendo Directs around release dates as well.

Maybe Sakurai has decided that only veterans will coincide with release dates, and newcomers won't. But you don't know that. What we do know is that they're using character reveals for marketing. And it makes sense to think that revealing a newcomer in tandem with a release date would be as good as or even better than revealing a veteran as far as marketing. So there's no reason not to factor that in unless we get more information about that subject.

The Newcomers so far have not been revealed for a certain game. Just for E3 and Nintendo Directs. Rosalina is the only one that even links to a game, I think. And it was already linked through Peach anyways. Funny thing is, the site for 3d world doesn't even mention Rosalina because she's a "spoiler"... or at least that's how it was last time I checked.

Revealing the secret character a bit after the release date makes more sense, not less.

(Of course, they had revealed her for SM3DW before release anyway...)

If Wii Fit U, New Leaf, and a Megaman game all had come out in June 2013, I might consider this theory.

That's a stupid argument. E3 is clearly different from other reveals. The reasons they picked them had nothing to do with release dates, but with making a big hype-filled splash (but perhaps saving some other big guns for E3 2014).

Anticipated Nintendo character
Highly wanted and famous 3rd party
WTF character to throw people for a loop and make us expect the unexpected

But since none of that is the case, and only veterans have been tied to games, I can't and I won't.

Only veterans and not the 2 newcomers. One of whom has no release dates to tie him to and the other is plausibly related to SM3DW's release.

Great sample size of maybe just Rosalina you've got there, clearly the basis for making hard rules about whether a newcomer would be revealed on a release date

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Adam: Yay More Double 0s% (technically 0.24% for chance)
DK4: 30%
Want: 80%
P3rio: 0.86%
NonCarHana: 3.45%
Helix x 5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Little Mac is not from a series with any upcoming games. Rosalina is a sample of one.

What we do know is that many veterans have been revealed close to or on release dates, and there's no reason to believe that they would not reveal a newcomer in tandem with a game release. Sure, probably to go along with a Nintendo Direct, but there have been Nintendo Directs around release dates as well.

Maybe Sakurai has decided that only veterans will coincide with release dates, and newcomers won't. But you don't know that.

And nor do you. Basically there's nothing concrete either way, so stating something as bold as "Dixie's unlikely; no Tropical Freeze reveal" is jumping the gun at this point.

Rosalina is also the ONLY sample of one and it's sketchy if it had anything to do with 3D World's release or more to do with the Galaxy stage reveal. Or Mario Kart. Or even getting all the Mario cast out the way. One example doesn't really make it a rule. Just a theory.

What we do know is that they're using character reveals for marketing. And it makes sense to think that revealing a newcomer in tandem with a release date would be as good as or even better than revealing a veteran as far as marketing. So there's no reason not to factor that in unless we get more information about that subject.

Again, jumping the gun when there's not enough evidence to point to newcomers being tie ins. One interpreted situation doesn't make it fact.

In fact by that logic that newcomers appear in tandem with release dates for games we're now not receiving ANY DK newcomer, and that's a situation not many will find likely with two mega popular characters on the line and a third dark horse option in Cranky.

I'd remain neutral before stating it discounts Dixie or improves K. Rool's chances. It doesn't really mean anything thus far with so little evidence on newcomers which may or may not have a totally different set of rules, especially since they're confined to Directs.

 

[Aqua Rock X]

ADAM MALKOVICH

Chance: 1% - No.

Want: 0% - Double No.

TWO DK NEWCOMERS

Chance: 40% - It could happen.

Want: 90% - Please!!! Both Dixie and K.Rool would be awesome.

Pikmin trio prediction: .5% - Can't say for sure.

Hanafuda Prediction: 0.1% - ???

Nominations:
Other M Ridley x5

 

[Erimir]

And nor do you. Basically there's nothing concrete either way, so stating something as bold as "Dixie's unlikely; no Tropical Freeze reveal" is jumping the gun at this point.

I didn't say that it made her unlikely, I said that it made her less likely than before we knew that.

Again, jumping the gun when there's not enough evidence to point to newcomers being tie ins. One interpreted situation doesn't make it fact.

I didn't say it was fact, but if you think it's a possibility that they are (and there's no reason not to) then you should take that into account, since after all we're rating possibilities.

In other words, you should consider that maybe they are and maybe they aren't going to be linked to release dates. In one scenario, that means Dixie's chances are hurt, in the other, it doesn't say anything either way. Net result? Dixie's chances are hurt somewhat. There's no way that, if you think it's possible that newcomers might be linked to release dates, that this is not negative news for Dixie. Maybe you think it's very unlikely that newcomers will be revealed to market new releases, but there isn't really any reason to think that. It's definitely not something you can dismiss as being a 1% chance or anything like that.

It's not that hard to understand.

In fact by that logic that newcomers appear in tandem with release dates for games we're now not receiving ANY DK newcomer, and that's a situation not many will find likely with two mega popular characters on the line and a third dark horse option in Cranky.

No, not by my logic. By the logic you're making up and claiming I said.

I said it hurts Dixie's chances, not that it means she's now impossible or a long shot.

I'd remain neutral before stating it discounts Dixie or improves K. Rool's chances. It doesn't really mean anything thus far with so little evidence on newcomers which may or may not have a totally different set of rules, especially since they're confined to Directs.

You're NOT remaining neutral though! That's my whole point!

You are POSITIVELY taking the position that newcomers will not be more likely to be revealed on relevant game release dates. Because that's the only way you can defend the idea that her chances are not hurt at least somewhat by the passing of TF's release date without a reveal.

Let's say Dixie's baseline chance (back in June) was B. B could be 60% or 90% or whatever you thought it was. There are two scenarios, one in which newcomers may be tied in to release dates, and another where they won't. The first has a likelihood of X and the second a likelihood of (1-X), and 1 > X > 0. In the first scenario there is additionally the question of whether Dixie specifically would be tied to TF's release. Maybe you think the chance of that would've been D, with 1 > D > 0.

So the two scenarios:

X chance that newcomers are tied into release dates, in this scenario Dixie's new chances are only B*(1-D), some value less than B. This is because if she had a 90% chance of being tied to the release, she retains that 10%, or (1-D).

(1-X) chance that newcomers aren't tied into release dates, in this scenario, Dixie's chances are unchanged at B.


To calculate her overall chances, C, then, we take the average weighted by the likelihood of the two scenarios:

C = X*B*(1-D) + (1-X)*B = X*B - X*B*D + B - X*B = B - X*B*D = B*(1 - X*D)

You're saying that because we should remain "neutral", her overall chances should be considered unchanged. This means C = B.

Well, doing some simple algebra, you get the following:

B*(1 - X*D) = B
1-X*D = 1
X*D = 0

So either X or D or both of them equal zero.

So you think there's no chance that newcomers will be tied into release dates (X=0), and/or you think that there's no way that Dixie specifically would be linked to it (D=0). That's the result of remaining "neutral".

But you said yourself that you think "newcomers may or may not have a totally different set of rules". Unless you think that they definitely do, you have to concede that her chances are reduced.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

adam whats his name (chance and want) - 0%
lets face it, what does he have that makes this a good idea?
and add ridley in the equation, he's impossible
two dk newcomers - 25.00%
we're likely to get a dk newcomer, two not so much, its possible but not as much as others
want - 100%

hmmm what picture can describe my feeling about this . . . . . . . . . .

nuff said

posted this awhile ago,
still holds true
Alph, Brittney, and Charlie - 0.48%
i'm expecting this to get undermined
non- character hanafuda representation - 15.61%
this can go anywhere from 1 to 20, and possibly higher
nominations:
Pirate shipX5 (legend of Zelda)

 

[andimidna]

Rosalina wasn't even revealed the same MONTH as 3D World came out.
It was about a month later.

Let's put it this way, Yoshi wasn't revealed for Yoshi's New Island. Does that make him less likely to return. Nope.
Is ANYBODY doubting YOSHI? Nope.

It's only been a month since Tropical Freeze came out, she could easily be revealed in the next Direct.
I think it's more likely we'd see Palutena or a Fire Emblem character in March or April, though.

I'm sure Sakurai uses complicated, fancy math equations to choose characters/reveals...
The same guy we all call an unpredictable troll... c'mon, seriously?

Nobody was revealed on X and Y, but a Gen 6 Pokemon still has the same low likelihood.
Does a newcomer not being revealed for A Link Between Worlds hurt the chances of a Zelda newcomer?
No, they wouldn't reveal a Zelda newcomer before Zelda. Or Ganondorf. And Zelda ended up getting revealed on the 2nd release date, Japan's. This is no different.

If E3 is so different, than everybody is viable for E3 and your logic makes no sense.
"That's a stupid argument. E3 is clearly different from other reveals. The reasons they picked them had nothing to do with release dates"
You said this. You.
If you mean this, than everybody is just as likely to be revealed at E3 as they ever were, because it's random, and none of them link to games. Your argument would only make sense if E3 already happened.

 

[Groose]

So, the whole Dixie discussion eh? Let me lend my two cents to things.

• Villager was revealed at E3 on June 11, 2013. Animal Crossing: New Leaf launched in America two days prior and in Europe three days later. Promotion.
• Wii Fit Trainer was revealed at E3 on June 11, 2013. Wii Fit U launched sometime in the December area. Seems like they wasted an opportunity, right? However...
  • Wii Fit U was SUPPOSED to launch in Q2 and then Q3 of 2013... right around E3. Planned promotion, poor execution.
• Mega Man was revealed at E3 on June 11, 2013. He has not had a game launch recently, and likely won't in the near future.
  • It's pretty obvious that he was revealed at E3 to hype the reveal of Smash Bros.--he was possibly probably definitely the most hype-inducing character they had. Can you imagine the outrage if all we got was Wii Fit Trainer and Villager for E3?
• Rosalina was revealed on December 18, 2013. Super Mario 3D World launched in late November. She was revealed to promote the game.
  • There is a half-month gap between the launch and reveal; however, she was still revealed in the Direct immediately following the game's launch. Promotion.
• Little Mac was revealed on February 13, 2014. He hasn't had a game in years, and he isn't likely to have one any time soon.

Three of the first four newcomers revealed (and roughly three-quarters of the veterans as well) were shown off for promotion. Mega Man is the exception, but there was clearly rhyme-and-reason behind his reveal; he was supposed to be the big news anchoring the entire announcement of Smash 4. Therefore, we can say that all of the first four newcomers were shown off on a carefully planned, logical release schedule.

Then we get to Little Mac. He didn't promote anything at all. Now, if Dixie were in the game, showing her off would have really helped Nintendo out. It would have reminded the Japanese that Tropical Freeze just came out, and it would have told the rest of the world how the game was coming out very soon. Her reveal would have followed the precedent set by the other character announcements.

Don't give me the "but Diddy wasn't revealed yet, and they wouldn't show off Dixie without Diddy!" Yeah, you're right--they would have just revealed Diddy a while earlier than they actually did. Remember how we got Lucario on Brawl's anniversary in late January? Why wouldn't they have just shown off Diddy instead to prep things for Dixie's reveal? After all, Diddy is also a Brawl veteran, and he would have fulfilled the same role that day as Lucario did. Anyway, there is precedent for randomly revealing characters that will be used to reveal other characters soon--just look at Peach. Why was she revealed, other than to get the Mario cast out there before they showed of Rosalina? You could say to coincide with Mario's anniversary, but Sakurai didn't even acknowledge that.

Back on February 1st, I had my DK breakdown look like this: 45% Dixie, 40% K. Rool, and 15% Cranky Kong. 20% no DK character, 20% two DK characters, 60% one DK character. Now that Tropical Freeze's release date has passed, I'm lower on Dixie and Cranky, less confident about a DK newcomer in general, and highly skeptical of two DK newcomers. I now look at things like this: 50% K Rool, 25% Dixie, 5% Cranky. 25% no DK character, 70% one DK character, and 5% Two DK newcomers.

The rest of my rating will be coming soon. I'm working on updating the day now.

EDIT: Somebody wants to play, eh?

Rosalina wasn't even revealed the same MONTH as 3D World came out.
It was about a month later.

Let's put it this way, Yoshi wasn't revealed for Yoshi's New Island. Does that make him less likely to return. Nope.
Is ANYBODY doubting YOSHI? Nope.

1) I've already addressed the Rosalina point above. She was revealed in the closest proximity to 3D World as possible.
2) Yoshi still may be revealed for Yoshi's New Island, and I'd argue that he probably still will be. Keep in mind, the game isn't out in Japan yet, and almost every character has been revealed on Japanese launch dates.

It's only been a month since Tropical Freeze came out, she could easily be revealed in the next Direct.

Agree. That's why I still have her at a very respectable 25% chance score. If she doesn't get revealed by the end of E3, she's dropping to 20%, and she'll stay there until either launch or significant news regarding Donkey Kong.

Nobody was revealed on X and Y, but a Gen 6 Pokemon still has the same low likelihood.
Does a newcomer not being revealed for A Link Between Worlds hurt the chances of a Zelda newcomer?
No, they wouldn't reveal a Zelda newcomer before Zelda. Or Ganondorf. And Zelda ended up getting revealed on the 2nd release date, Japan's. This is no different.

1) Nobody was revealed for X and Y because the game didn't need promotion. Pokemon and the 3DS print money. The Wii U costs Nintendo money. That's precisely why they'd want to promote a major system seller as much as possible.
2) A Link Between Worlds isn't the only Zelda game on the radar. Hyrule Warriors launches soon, and it provides another opportunity for a Zelda newcomer. Additionally, Zelda U may also provide an opportunity for cross-promotion.

If E3 is so different, than everybody is viable for E3 and your logic makes no sense.
"That's a stupid argument. E3 is clearly different from other reveals. The reasons they picked them had nothing to do with release dates"
You said this. You.

Never said that. I actually proved that Villager and Wii Fit Trainer were promotional. Mega Man is still an exception, yes, but that is only because he is a major hype-inducing character. Dixie Kong would cause some hype, but she would also receive some major backlash from the Krool Krowd.

 

[andimidna]

So, the whole Dixie discussion eh? Let me lend my two cents to things.

• Villager was revealed at E3 on June 11, 2013. Animal Crossing: New Leaf launched in America two days prior and in Europe three days later. Promotion.
• Wii Fit Trainer was revealed at E3 on June 11, 2013. Wii Fit U launched sometime in the December area. Seems like they wasted an opportunity, right? However...
  • Wii Fit U was SUPPOSED to launch in Q2 and then Q3 of 2013... right around E3. Planned promotion, poor execution.
• Mega Man was revealed at E3 on June 11, 2013. He has not had a game launch recently, and likely won't in the near future.
  • It's pretty obvious that he was revealed at E3 to hype the reveal of Smash Bros.--he was possibly probably definitely the most hype-inducing character they had. Can you imagine the outrage if all we got was Wii Fit Trainer and Villager for E3?
• Rosalina was revealed on December 18, 2013. Super Mario 3D World launched in late November. She was revealed to promote the game.
  • There is a half-month gap between the launch and reveal; however, she was still revealed in the Direct immediately following the game's launch. Promotion.
• Little Mac was revealed on February 13, 2014. He hasn't had a game in years, and he isn't likely to have one any time soon.

Three of the first four newcomers revealed (and roughly three-quarters of the veterans as well) were shown off for promotion. Mega Man is the exception, but there was clearly rhyme-and-reason behind his reveal; he was supposed to be the big news anchoring the entire announcement of Smash 4. Therefore, we can say that all of the first four newcomers were shown off on a carefully planned, logical release schedule.

Then we get to Little Mac. He didn't promote anything at all. Now, if Dixie were in the game, showing her off would have really helped Nintendo out. It would have reminded the Japanese that Tropical Freeze just came out, and it would have told the rest of the world how the game was coming out very soon. Her reveal would have followed the precedent set by the other character announcements.

Don't give me the "but Diddy wasn't revealed yet, and they wouldn't show off Dixie without Diddy!" Yeah, you're right--they would have just revealed Diddy a while earlier than they actually did. Remember how we got Lucario on Brawl's anniversary in late January? Why wouldn't they have just shown off Diddy instead to prep things for Dixie's reveal? After all, Diddy is also a Brawl veteran, and he would have fulfilled the same role that day as Lucario did. Anyway, there is precedent for randomly revealing characters that will be used to reveal other characters soon--just look at Peach. Why was she revealed, other than to get the Mario cast out there before they showed of Rosalina? You could say to coincide with Mario's anniversary, but Sakurai didn't even acknowledge that.

Back on February 1st, I had my DK breakdown look like this: 45% Dixie, 40% K. Rool, and 15% Cranky Kong. 20% no DK character, 20% two DK characters, 60% one DK character. Now that Tropical Freeze's release date has passed, I'm lower on Dixie and Cranky, less confident about a DK newcomer in general, and highly skeptical of two DK newcomers. I now look at things like this: 50% K Rool, 25% Dixie, 5% Cranky. 25% no DK character, 70% one DK character, and 5% Two DK newcomers.

The rest of my rating will be coming soon. I'm working on updating the day now.

EDIT: Somebody wants to play, eh?


1) I've already addressed the Rosalina point above. She was revealed in the closest proximity to 3D World as possible.
2) Yoshi still may be revealed for Yoshi's New Island, and I'd argue that he probably still will be. Keep in mind, the game isn't out in Japan yet, and almost every character has been revealed on Japanese launch dates.


Agree. That's why I still have her at a very respectable 25% chance score. If she doesn't get revealed by the end of E3, she's dropping to 20%, and she'll stay there until either launch or significant news regarding Donkey Kong.

1) Nobody was revealed for X and Y because the game didn't need promotion. Pokemon and the 3DS print money. The Wii U costs Nintendo money. That's precisely why they'd want to promote a major system seller as much as possible.
2) A Link Between Worlds isn't the only Zelda game on the radar. Hyrule Warriors launches soon, and it provides another opportunity for a Zelda newcomer. Additionally, Zelda U may also provide an opportunity for cross-promotion.

Never said that. I actually proved that Villager and Wii Fit Trainer were promotional. Mega Man is still an exception, yes, but that is only because he is a major hype-inducing character. Dixie Kong would cause some hype, but she would also receive some major backlash from the Krool Krowd.

So not getting a DK newcomer on Tropical Freeze raises the chances of a DK newcomer not in Tropical Freeze.

Ummm... Marth.
Revealed for a game he was not in.

And I wouldn't say a character prominent in the most recent game has lower chances now either, especially after Marth got revealed almost a year after the game he linked to.
This doesn't lower the chances of an Awakening character either, Peach and Rosalina link to 3D World.
And since Wii Fit Trainer actually did have an upcoming appearance, this theory still makes no sense.
Plus, New Leaf came out in 2012 in Japan.

This is the same sort of thing as on the SM3DW picture on the Japan release of it.
It got referenced and there was no reveal, I saw people on Miiverse saying Rosalina was deconfirmed. Ugh.

 

[Deleted member]

I can't believe there was a Dixie Kong debate in here. I'm more than happy that we got Little Mac, so I'm not complaining.

There is still April and E3 where we could see something DK related. I'm confident that we will get one DK character (again, I gave both Dixie Kong and King K. Rool 85%, I'm confident one will make it in). The stage has been set up for a DK newcomer; we might see one in a future Direct.

I don't have much to say on the matter, so I will butt out. I guess when you are on a day dealing with a character like Adam Malkovich, it seems like talking about anything other than him is authorized.

 

[Groose]

So not getting a DK newcomer on Tropical Freeze raises the chances of a DK newcomer not in Tropical Freeze.

Ummm... Marth.
Revealed for a game he was not in.

And I wouldn't say a character prominent in the most recent game has lower chances now either, especially after Marth got revealed almost a year after the game he linked to.
This doesn't lower the chances of an Awakening character either, Peach and Rosalina link to 3D World.
And since Wii Fit Trainer actually did have an upcoming appearance, this theory still makes no sense.
Plus, New Leaf came out in 2012 in Japan.

This is the same sort of thing as on the SM3DW picture on the Japan release of it.
It got referenced and there was no reveal, I saw people on Miiverse saying Rosalina was deconfirmed. Ugh.

Woah, woah, woah? In my calculations, Marth wasn't revealed for any game. The reason for his reveal, by my estimates, was simply to fill a hole in the reveal schedule an perhaps to set up a future reveal for a Fire Emblem newcomer. True, he was linked to Awakening's page, but he really wasn't revealed to promote it... the game was far too old to create a major promotion for it! A new Fire Emblem character could definitely still happen (and I'd say it's even probable!); as of now, there's no clear date for one's rebela because there are no games for one to promote. If one gets in, it will probably be through a Mac-style random reveal.

Keep in mind what I said about Wii Fit Trainer. She did have an upcoming appearance; however, that upcoming appearance was supposed to be in the same window as her Smash reveal. Her game was just pushed back. It's a weaker chain in my argument, but it's still made of iron.

New Leaf did come out in 2012 in Japan, yes, and Japanese release dates do take precedence. However, that Japanese release date has no baring on Smash because it was long before they were ready to debut Smash; as such, the Western release was all that remained, and Villager was revealed right in the thick of it.

I can't believe there was a Dixie Kong debate in here. I'm more than happy that we got Little Mac, so I'm not complaining.

There is still April and E3 where we could see something DK related. I'm confident that we will get one DK character (again, I gave both Dixie Kong and King K. Rool 85%, I'm confident one will make it in). The stage has been set up for a DK newcomer; we might see one in a future Direct.

I don't have much to say on the matter, so I will butt out. I guess when you are on a day dealing with a character like Adam Malkovich, it seems like talking about anything other than him is authorized.

Hey, we're staying on topic! The topic is "Two DK Newcomers." Discussing Dixie Kong is directly related to that!

 

[colder_than_ice]

Wii Fit Trainer's reveal could easily have been pushed back to Q4 if promotion was that significant to character reveals, remember she was revealed in a seperate trailer from the SSB4 announcement trailer.

Dixie can still be an unlockable and Tropical Freeze already had Donkey Kong and Diddy Kong promoting it. I don't mean to sound harsh but I can't help but feel this whole "Dixie wasn't in the direct" argument is just a very contrived excuse to divert attention from the more serious issue: King K. Rool wasn't even in the game.

 

[Gunla]

I assume the update's tomorrow? Not to interrupt this juicy arguement, but just curious.

 

[UltimateWario]

Ummm... Marth.
Revealed for a game he was not in.

He wasn't revealed to advertise for it, and he did, in fact, appear in Awakening, albeit not during the main storyline.

 

[Groose]

I assume the update's tomorrow? Not to interrupt this juicy arguement, but just curious.

Working on it now. Scores tallied, halfway through noms. Sidetracked by Dixie debate.

Adam Malkovich: 5%
Smash is really pushing Other M. He was supposed to be a key feature and starring character of Other M. He's more significant than any in the series bar Samus (who's in), Metroids (who'd make interesting yet probably implausible characters), Ridley (Sakurai could be a toobigot), and Dark Samus (whose Prime games haven't been extolled in Smash). Even so, the fan hatred of his character should keep him out of serious contention. Hopefully.

Adam Want: 0%
No.

2 DK Character Want: 80%
Major fan of the series; really want K. Rool and Cranky; would like Dixie. My main issue is this: I don't want to see a large portion of newcomers taken from a single series.

Dillon x5

DAY OVER

... R.I.P ADAM MALKOVICH'S WANT SCORE​

 

[Groose]

Adam Malkovich (Metroid)
0.79% chance
0.43% want
...Athena Cykes, I never thought I'd see the day where someone scored lower than your 6.08% in want. I thought even Adam would muster a lousy six percent. Ladies and gentlemen, I am so shocked at just how low Adam scored that I can't even think of an authorization joke to put here.

Four DK Characters
24.60% chance (previously 42.60%)
71.48% want (previously 75.60%)
Not seeing a newcomer along with Tropical Freeze has cooled some of the Donkey Kong hype; however, it is still a popular and entirely possible idea.

Today we're rating not a duo... but a TRIO! Please rate the team of Charlie, Alph, and Brittany from Pikmin 3 in chance and want! In addition, we're discussing Nintendo's origins again; will Hanafuda get some form of representation that isn't a full-on playable character. Please direct questions about this concept at @ Pacack , an please rate Non-Character Hanafuda Representation in chance and want.

Tomorrow we'll be discussing Alexandra Roivas from Eternal Darkness... and Sandbag. Please predict how they'll fare.

 

[Pacack]

Priority for me:

Non-Character Hanfuda Representation:

Chance: 15%
I wouldn't say it's even close to likely, but even the most minor reference (like clothing for a minor character that's on a sticker) counts, so it's not terribly hard to imagine happening either. I'm kinda split on this, but I'll go on the higher end of my thing since I think I may be being pessimistic.

Want: 100%
I would be thrilled to see even a minor reference to Hanafuda. Like, the tiniest thing would make me so happy. I would feel slight bitterness about Sakurai not going for a character (Daitoryo), but anything even remotely above minuscule will boost his chances for the next game, and I can wait.

EDIT:

Captain Trio:

Chance: .75%
Three separate characters controlling other smaller characters sounds like an absolute programming nightmare. I'm sorry, but I would be genuinely shocked to see this happen.

Want: 0%
It would take development time comparable to that of Pokemon Trainer without giving us four of the most iconic characters in existence for it. No thanks. I'd rather that time goes to something else. Anything else, practically.

Predictions:

Abstaining from Alexandra because I have no idea who that is.

Sandbag: 6%
Mega Bidoof and a couple others will try to save this and most everyone else will try to kill it with fire.

Nominations: Snake x5

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

AEIOU John Madden: 0.2%
Ah, I remember the days immediately following E3 when people were putting Alph on their rosters instead of Olimar, who was confirmed to return in the very first SSB4 site update. The other two guys are even less likely.

Want: 4.5%
It would be funny if all three of them appeared on the screen at the same time for some reason and each of them had six Pikmin each. Especially if all four players were playing as them. Other than that, can't really think of any reason I'd want them in.

Non-Playable Hanafuda representation: 55%
Seems logical enough, especially if it's something minor like a trophy.

Want: 60%
No real opinion for or against.

A. Roivas prediction: 0.70%
Sadbag prediction: 0.14%

Nominate:
Red Savarin x4
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x1

 

[Deleted member]

Adam, you are not authorized to get over a single percent in chance and want.
On the behalf of SmashBoards, I hereby give you a thumbs down.

In all honesty, I was a bit surprised by his low want. It's actually hilarious that he didn't even crack a single percent. I don't think we can get any lower than him.
Also, if you don't like Other M or haven't really watched gameplay of or played Other M, I recommend you watch the Retsupurae video where they watch every single cutscene in the game. It's very long, but it's so worth it. Here's the link.
And now, my ratings.

Alph/Brittany/Charlie and Non-Character Hanafuda Representation have been added to the Directory.

Alph/Brittany/Charlie
Chance: 0%
I bet that Olimar takes a lot of time. He has a unique mechanic where he uses the Pikmin for some of his attacks and he has 5 Pikmin with their own abilities. You know who also has a unique mechanic that should eat up a lot of time? The Pokemon Trainer; he is basically a three-in-one character with three different Pokemon, each with a unique moveset and each one needing to balance out each other. Take those two mechanics and you get this; a three-in-one character slot with Pikmin aiding you.
It represents Pikmin 3 perfectly, but that game is a bit recent. I don't think that the world is ready for the Pikmin heroes yet, especially when there are other franchises that deserve to have a 2nd rep before Pikmin (Kid Icarus and Metroid come to mind, even Yoshi, Wario, and F-Zero should get a 2nd character before Pikmin). I think that adding these trio of characters would just take up a lot of time and resources where adding them isn't worth the effort.
Want: 0%
No thank you. Save the time for other, much better options.

Non-Character Hanafuda Representation
Chance AND Want: Abstain
Don't have much to say on this, so I won't bother.

Alexandra Roivas Prediction: .63%
Niche franchise that hasn't been getting attention. She's practically doomed.
Sandbag Prediction: 1.70%
My original prediction for Sandbag. I was going to go below zero, but I foresee two massive outliers to come our way that will give Sandbag more credit than he deserves. *sigh*

EDIT: @ Smasher 101 has authorized me 5 extra nominations. So I'll use them on…
Nominations: Captain Rainbow 10x
@ Groose , After these nominations, I believe that Captain Rainbow should have a total of 30 nominations.

 

[UltimateWario]

Pikmin 3 Captains
Chance: 5% or so
Want: 0%
Olimar and the Pikmin fulfill every "Pikmin Rep" requirement I have. Arbitrarily slapping together his gimmick with Pokemon Trainer's is dumb. I love Pikmin, but not enough to want pointless newcomers.

Cards That Nobody Remembers But You Can't Play as Them
Chance: 75%
Want: 50% (Indifferent)
Odds are that it'll get mentioned SOMEWHERE, by some part of the game. Not even remotely expecting a playable character.

Predictions
Eternal Darkness Chick: Low as Hell
Sandbag: Slightly Higher than Low as Hell

Last Minute Roster Padding Clones x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Alph, Brittany, and Charlie: 0.01%
Want: 0%

Non Character Hanafuda Representation: 5%
Want: 50%

Alexandra Roivas: 0.51%
Sandbag: 0.45%

x5 Toon Zelda/Sheik

 

[Gunla]

@ Groose , I think the best line would be to say,
"Adam, you are now authorized to fail."

E-100 Series-Tiny People Edition
Pros
+New trio from Pikmin series
+Annnndddd that's it!
Cons
-No new Pikmin rep "a dire necesity"
-A trio is hard to implement
-Clone-esqueness could drive away Sakurai
-Pikmin 3 may be "too recent"
-Takes up way too much damn time to implement. I heard someone saying they thought we could get THIS replacing PT? Gimme a break. We're not getting a new trio to replace the old one.
Overall... Too ambitious, too much of a time investment, trio issues and the like drag this trio down.
OVERALL RATING: .05%
Want: 00.00%- Olimar is all that is needed!

CARD GAMES ON MOTORCYCLES!
Pros (I can do it for this)
+Very easy and simple to implement. This means a trophy, AT, item or something of that matter.
+Hanafuda is still popular. They made new decks for them a few years ago. It would make sense to see something for them in a miscellanious section, no?
Cons
-With time being so stressed, Sakurai may cut out the number of trophies, and stickers possibly entirely. A Hanafuda card is best represented as a trophy or sticker so this may be an issue.
Overall... I'm glad to say this is actually quite feasible given the circumstances!
OVERALL RATING: 40%
Want: 100%- Sure, why not? I like Hanafuda cards.

PREDICTIONS:
Alex (ED)- Really now? That's an odd pick, but I guess so. Her shots are nill. .8%.
Sadbag-Ugh, this will be dreadful. There's a few distinct users that I know will overrate Sandbag to the point of madness. Predicting 1.6% because everyone else will summon a double zero for item.

NOMINATIONS:
Jack Frost X5 (SMT)- Hee ho! I'll slowly reach my goal!

 

[colder_than_ice]

Alph, Brittany, and Charlie
Chance: 0% - I just can't realistically see Sora Ltd. investing the time and effort into programming and balancing an idea this wild.
Want: 100% - It's so crazy, it's brilliant.

Non-Playable Hanafuda
Chance: 10% - I don't think it's likely. Nintendo very rarely acknowledges their history in card making, even though they still do it today.
Want: 70% - I actually think it would be a cool addition.

Alexandra prediction: 0.8%

Sandbag prediction: 0.4%

Nominations: <10% chance character becomes playable x5

 

[andimidna]

Pikmin Thrio:
Chance: ....hm.... 5%?
Until Olimar is shown off with Flying Pikmin and Rock Pikmin... they have a chance.
Want: 85%
I used to have this on my roster in 2013.
I don't know why, but I like the idea of it.
...a lot.
I think they could work as a trio with no Pikmin out, but would use Pikmin for projectiles.
Flying Pikmin as an up special.
Rock Pikmin as a down special.
Side special could be the Purple Pikmin who could run off and carry a vulnerable character back to you.
Neutral Special could be Red/Blue/Yellow/White and would function like Olimar's throw+attack.
I think they could easily work uniquely. Unlike Louie or Alph alone.
Hanafuda:
Chance: Wow. I have absolutely no idea...
hm........
um...
well..
Ok, so Nintendo just released a new deck of cards, now with Mario characters on them.
And I've heard people talking about them, calling it a nice callback to where they started.
So, I guess they do remember where they started?
Ok, I think it definitely deserves something.
But will they do it?
I think it's 50/50
They could definitely do it... but they might not even think of it.
Yeah... 50%
Want: Sure, why not? I wouldn't be blown away by it or excited... so I'll give it an 80%

Predictions:
Alexandra: 2.23%
An unrepresented Nintendo franchise that won't take priority over many.
Sandbag: 1.11%
I honestly think he's deconfirmed because of Little Mac's trailer. So he doesn't deserve any higher than Balloon Fighter, as Balloon Fighter was actually a viable option before his "deconfirmation."
He can't move or fight. The homerun bat came back. So there will be a Homerun Mode, and, once again, Sandbag will be there, and only there. Maybe the wi-fi load-up screen too if he's lucky. He'll probably be an item too, I think it would be funny if he's an assist like Goldeen that does nothing and just disappears. So you won't always get something good. But that's it.

x5 Tiki

 

[Keto]

Pikimin Trio chance: .5%
Pikimin Trio Want: 0%

Hanafuda rep chance: 30% This is the chance for nintendo to get the newer generation players familiar with their card game.
Hanafuda want: 50% Indifferent

Alexandra: .65%
Sandbag: .65%

Two newcomers from same series x5

 

[FalKoopa]

ABC Trio:
Likelihood: 1%
You're putting THREE characters in one moveset, AND adding Pikmin on top of that. Unless the 3DS suddenly becomes more powerful overnight, I heavily doubt the feasibility of such a character.

Want: 0%
I hate tag-teams and shoving two (or more) characters into a single slot. Either make them separate characters or don't make them at all.

Hanafuda representation: 45%
It's not too hard to throw in a trophy/sticker to represent the pre-gaming era of Nintendo. But they haven't done it yet, so I'm a bit doubtful.

Want: 50%
Don't care either way.

Alexandra Roivas prediction: 2%
Sandbag prediction: 2.1%

Wild Gunman x 5

 

[Kenith]

Alph, Brittany, and Charlie Trio
Chance: 1%. I doubt they would combine the gimmicks of Pokemon Trainer, Olimar, and potentially Ice Climbers, for the sake of representing the characters of Pikmin 3. If we get this, there will likely be no other new characters.

Want: 1%. Even if I liked these characters, it wouldn't be worth the effort in my opinion.

Hanafuda representation:

Chance: 15%. Maybe. Only games have been represented in the past, and I don't think that will change. If we get Hanafuda representation, I can only hope that a love hotel is a stage.

Want: 30%. Mostly indifferent.

Alexandra Roivas Prediction: 3%.
Sandbag Prediction: 4%.

Nominations: Lucina & Masked Marth x5.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Drake's Crew - 0%

This......simply cannot happen.

It's putting three characters in one like Pokemon Trainer.....and have each of them control separate groups of computer character Pikmin like Olimar.......Basically, it'd be programming hell. They really can't offer much in term of gameplay either, the Rock Pikmin would hit hard.....Pink Pikmin could maybe help with a recovery move, but any aerial-based attacks they could have would likely be held back by other programming issues regarding the trio and their Pikmin as a whole. It would ultimately be a wasted effort imo.

Want - 3%

Only giving it this much because I really like the personality of these three characters. I would like to see them in the game in some form, but I can't say I care for the idea of them as being playable as a trio, it would take tons of effort to develop and wouldn't bring much to the roster, and it would also likely significantly limit the amount of characters on the roster as well.

Non-character Hanafuda Representation - 48%

As a rather important and notable part of Nintendo's history, I'd be quite surprised if we didn't get some mention of Hanafuda in this game, even if it's merely a trophy or even a sticker.

Want - 85%

I'd like to see this old and important part of Nintendo appear in Smash in some way.

Alexandra Roivas Prediction - 3.05%

Sandbag Prediction - 5.34%

Expecting at least a few posts to give Sandbag a bit more credit than I think it has.

Happy Mask Salesman x5

 

[Chandeelure]

-Pikmin Trio:
Chances: 0%
Want: 0%

-Hanafuda Representation:
Chances: 2%
Want: 50%

-Alexandra Roivas Prediction: 3,1%

-Sandbag Prediction: 0,6%

-Nomination: Chrom X5

 

[Erimir]

Leaving the debate for the bottom...

Pikmin Trio

Why would they do this, exactly? Not particularly wanted, Pikmin is barely a big enough series to get two reps, much less essentially four movesets. Pikmin's characters are also too similar, another reason not to bother.

Way too much work for very little payoff in this case, I'm afraid.

Pikmin Trio Chances: 0.07%

Pikmin Trio Want: 0%

Non-playable Hanafuda representation

I have to think that non-playable Hanafuda representation is practically guaranteed if a playable Hanafuda rep gets in. So I'm surprised that @ Pacack rated it so low. Have you soured on Daitoryo's chances?

Anyway, this seems like a pretty easy thing to represent. It's perfect for stickers, if they return. As a trophy, they could try to make a 3-D render of Daitoryo or something, but it would also be extremely easy to make two-dimensional card(s) as a trophy. Representation in a stage or item form is also possible, but less likely.

Chances are hurt by hanafuda being obscure in the West, and by not being related to video games per se.

Non-playable hanafuda representation chances: 25%
It's really easy to include in some form, and it's an important part of Nintendo history. If stickers are confirmed to return, then the chances are boosted. The same thing could've been said for Melee and Brawl, however.

hanafuda representation want: 50%
I'm indifferent.

Predictions:
Alexandra Roivas - 1%
I dunno, someone's going to give her a non-negligible score. As much as I like Eternal Darkness, the fact is that I would be pleasantly surprised to see any reference to the game at all.
Sandbag - 0.5%
Maybe the game has died down and gotten a little more serious since before...

Nominations:
5x Paper Mario

Let's put it this way, Yoshi wasn't revealed for Yoshi's New Island. Does that make him less likely to return. Nope.
Is ANYBODY doubting YOSHI? Nope.

Irrelevant. Three-time veterans with as much importance as Yoshi are not comparable to newcomers. And at any rate, the game is not out in Japan yet.

I'm sure Sakurai uses complicated, fancy math equations to choose characters/reveals...

Yeah, all that complicated, fancy... basic algebra with the four basic operators That kind of math is not intimidating, I was doing that in 5th grade. This was just basically to formally explain what I was saying with words, which apparently wasn't getting through.

Anyway, I was talking about probabilities, not talking about Sakurai's decision making process.

You can use whatever reasoning you like to say what you think the values of X, B and D are in those equations I gave, but if you think that X and D are greater than zero, then the passing of TF's release hurts Dixie's chances. Period.

The same guy we all call an unpredictable troll... c'mon, seriously?

You might. I don't.

Does a newcomer not being revealed for A Link Between Worlds hurt the chances of a Zelda newcomer?

Since the characters that are considered viable Zelda newcomers did not appear in A Link Between Worlds, it's not as important.

Meanwhile, Hyrule Warriors will be coming out as well, as Groose pointed out, and will likely have a large cast of playable characters, most of whom will be playable for the first time, and probably some returning villains. This will create opportunities for revealing Ghirahim or Impa or Vaati, or whoever, should they appear in the game. If Ganondorf is not revealed by the release date, then yes, I would think a Zelda newcomer is less likely.

Dixie can still be an unlockable and Tropical Freeze already had Donkey Kong and Diddy Kong promoting it. I don't mean to sound harsh but I can't help but feel this whole "Dixie wasn't in the direct" argument is just a very contrived excuse to divert attention from the more serious issue: King K. Rool wasn't even in the game.

I acknowledged that when we re-rated K Rool.

In fact, what I said was that I think both Dixie AND K Rool were harmed by Tropical Freeze's release. Dixie because she wasn't revealed in February, and K Rool because he wasn't in the game at all. I think K Rool is still important, has enough fan demand and would be unique enough and I had been rating him on the assumption that there was a low chance that he would be TF - since I had already baked in the low likelihood of him being in TF, I only lowered his score a little bit.

All I'm saying is that it hurts Dixie's chances. I never did say by how much, and people are jumping down my throat like I'm saying she's disconfirmed.

This:

This is the same sort of thing as on the SM3DW picture on the Japan release of it.
It got referenced and there was no reveal, I saw people on Miiverse saying Rosalina was deconfirmed. Ugh.

is irrelevant to what I'm saying, because I've said nothing of the sort. Dixie is still very much possible, and is still one of the more likely newcomers. It's also the case that I consider her less likely than I did in December.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Right, okay, so from what I've got from Erimir, and after reading the reply above to andimidna, I'm happy to say it's a simple misunderstanding(at least to me);

What it sounded like originally; "Dixie Kong is highly unlikely now due to missing out the direct around Tropical Freeze when we got Little Mac. However this boosts K. Rool's chances because he wasn't in the game." Which obviously makes no sense at all.

What was meant: "It's possible that we're less likely to receive more than one DK newcomer because of the missing of a reveal for one around Tropical Freeze. It hurts everyone DK newcomer's chances." Is that right Erimir?

If so; obviously that is slightly different.

Although yes; Newcomers do have one proven difference to veterans; they only appear in Directs. I'm still not convinced with Groose's statement that being tied in to promotion is a rule. I forgot about New Leaf so that's 2/5(Rosalina and Villager) with tie ins, but I can't take Wii Fit Trainer as a fact since it didn't go down that way and Megaman and Little Mac very much non promotion based. The next newcomer will be interesting to see if it ties in or not now.

Also; I definitely was not saying we won't receive a DK Newcomer, I merely thought you were making out that unless a character has a promotional tie in they wouldn't be appearing any time soon. Which would screw over all DK Newcomers. You were not speaking in definites which means we were basically saying the same thing albeit in different ways. Basically mass misunderstanding.

Alright, glad that's sorted(hopefully), on to the ratings;

PIKMIN TRIO:
Chance: 0%
Pokemon Trainer style characters are a pain to make, and a trio of Pikmin characters on top of Olimar would be pretty redundant. At least with Pokemon Trainer all three Pokemon behave in totally different ways with different playstyles and movesets.
The three Pikmin captains would be a little redundant because they'd basically be three Captain Olimar's glued together with the only real difference being the inclusion of rock and flying Pikmin. The only thing in their favour is that they'd be easier to develop due to essentially being three clones with tweaks.

But if that's the case it seems like a waste of development time to even consider throwing all three into a single slot and we'd be far more likely to receive one of them as an Olimar clone OR Captain Louie.

Want: 0%
Captain Louie(or maybe Alph at a push) or bust for me. I'd rather have the iconic Bugs than a character for just two additional Pikmin.

Non-character Hanafuda Representation:
Chance: 32%
A trophy, a background element, a sticker(if they return), an item...there's plenty of places they could implement Hanafuda cards. But they haven't thus far even given it even a nod in the form of a sticker in Brawl.

Want: 65%
It's an important part of Nintendo's history. I don't think it'd work as a character, but I'm very much up for it as any of the above options.

Predictions:
Alexandra: 0.5%
Eternal Darkness will eternally be excluded from Smash, much less have a playable character. It's just due to the nature of that game that I can't see her scoring well.

Sandbag: 0.2%
Other than the obvious reasons against him; he's already been revealed in Little Mac's trailer as oddly enough a Sand Bag. They wouldn't reveal a newcomer IN a different newcomer's trailer would they? Can we expect Doc Lewis, The Wii Fit Balance Board and Tom Nook? Actually the last one does seem slightly possible...

Nominations:
5 X RTC Top Ten Member AT

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Colourful Spacesuits*3:

Chance: 0%
Bwuh? Why is this a rating?

Want: 0%
Olimar is enough.


Hanafuda:

Chance: 10%
It is important to Nintendo, and two games does allow more stuff, but honestly smash is about Video-games, not cards.

Want: 25%
I would like the nod, but it's a long time ago, and not really needed. It wouldn't hype me I'm afraid.



Alexandra: 0.03%
There is mud on that name. Eternal Darkness is associated, loosely as it may be, with Child Pornagraphy... and Nintendo is a pretty kid friendly place... heck Smash doesn't even have guns for that reason. The connnection is small, and the series doesn't deserve it as it's completely innocent, but it only takes a few Google searches for worried parents to over-react... and the fact is they over-react to far weaker connections to this. Nintendo have probably disowned the series at this stage, and it won't be in smash.

Sandbag: 0.03%
Little Mac knocked his (already laughable) chances out of the building.



Slime*5
(Slime happy slime not that Malkovich goo-man, at least slime getting half decent want scores.)

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Pikmin 3 Trio
1% Chance
1% Want
At least they are interesting...

NP Hanafuda representation
15% Chance
80% Want

Nominating Lucas (The Wizard) x5

 

[Smasher 101]

I apologize for this being so late, I wasn't able to do it last night. The extra nomination winners are @Brawler610 for Adam and @ Kenith and @ LoneKonWolf for Two DK Newcomers.

Also wow I never expected someone to not even get 1% in want.

Pikmin Three's Chances and Want: 0% - I doubt we'll get any trio this time besides probably the Trainer, and I would honestly much rather have one of them by themselves.

NC Hanafuda: 10% - I'm not really expecting it.
Want: 100% - I'm all for it though, I don't think a character would be good but I see nothing wrong with this.

Alexandra prediction: 0.19% - Not happening.
Sandbugh prediction: 1.68% - A couple of people will overrate him. Everyone else will give him the low scores he deserves.

Zoroark x5

 

[Sid-cada]

NATO-named Captains

Chance - 0% - So, we're adding the complications of the Pokémon Trainer on top of the difficulty of Oliminar? Even assuming that the 3DS could handle such a thing, this simply way too much work to balance between the three characters.

Want - 0% - If we get these characters, I'm expecting the roster to go through the slaughterhouse. Nobody wants that.


Hanafuda Non-character Representation

Chance - 30% - Not to certain what to think on this one. On one hand, it's just the off-the wall thing that still makes sense that Sakurai could do, yet 3 games with no mention makes me hesitant.

Want - 60% - Why not? It's an important part of Nintendo's history, and as a side thing it won't take away from anything important.


Predictions

Alexandra - 1.35% - Eternal Darkness would be better off as a stage rather than a character.

Sandbag - 0.59% - He still hasn't hit the bottom yet? ... Why? ... Why are we even rating him again?

Nominations
Halcandra Stage X3
Galatica Knight X2

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Alph, Brittany & Charlie chance - 2%

On their own I see them having a somewhat better chance. I really doubt we'd see a trio.

Alpha, Brittany & Charlie want - 0%

Haven't played Pikmin 3 yet, I'm perfectly satisfied with just Olimar.

--------------------------

Non character hanafuda rep chance - 5%

I think it's a long shot.

Non character hanafuda rep want - 70%

Sure, why not?

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

ABCs: Double 0s%
NonChar: 20%
Want: 10%
Alexandra: 1.23%
Sandbag: 0.43%

Our Savior Helix x 5