Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[AustarusIV]

Grovyle:
Chance: 5%
Sorry. I really enjoyed playing through Ruby & Sapphire as a kid (please don't hurt me), and even though I picked Treecko as my starter I don't think it's going to make it in. There's the slim possibility of it being part of the next Pokemon Trainer's team, if the Pokemon Trainer even returns.

Want: 15%
Eh. I'm not going to kill myself if it doesn't get in.

King K. Rool
Chance: 80%
King K. Rool has got it good. He's wildly popular in all parts of the world, even in Japan where they're more or less content with keeping Brawl's roster as it is. The DK franchise has experienced a revival thanks to Retro Studios, and even though he hasn't appeared in either of their games so far that hasn't stopped him from being seriously wanted. I've always thought that, considering how Super Smash Bros has influenced other Nintendo franchises, that K. Rool's appearance in SSB4 will actually convince Retro to put him in the next DKCR game because of how requested he is.

Want: 100%
Oh yeah. My second most wanted character after Ridley. Now that Ridley's chances are looking better and better each month, K. Rool has become even more popular in my eyes. If he doesn't get into SSB4, I think I'm going to be physically sick.

 

[Louie G.]

Alright, here goes.

GROVYLE:

Chance: 1%
So many Pokémon will come before Grovyle. His only shot is as one of May's possible Pokémon.

Want: 50%
Indifferent to it. I prefer Mudkip.

KING K. ROOL:

Chance: 80%
I am not overstating this. K. Rool is the ideal DK rep for his importance to the series, uniqueness (ESPECIALLY compared to Dixie and Cranky), and overall popularity. It would be downright stupid not to add him this time. Dixie nor Cranky were revealed in the Direct, which gives me hope that K. Rool could be our guy. The Direct was really the perfect time to reveal the others, and since K. Rool is the only runner not to be associated with Tropical Freeze I would say that gives him a leg up. Most of what I would say after this has been said.

Want: 100%
No description needed.

Noms: Meowth x5
"Dat's Right!"

 

[Chandeelure]

Stop saying that K.Rool is more likely or Dixie is less likely because she wasn't revealed for Tropical Freeze, all the veterans (Diddy in this case) need to be revealed before the newcomers, is just...obvious.

 

[Louie G.]

Stop saying that K.Rool is more likely or Dixie is less likely because she wasn't revealed for Tropical Freeze, all the veterans (Diddy in this case) need to be revealed before the newcomers, is just...obvious.

No, it's not.
And Diddy could have been revealed simultaneously in a Dixie or Cranky trailer. There are no rules to character reveals really.
And I find K. Rool more likely for a variety of reasons. First off Sakurai is looking for unique characters, and quite frankly Dixie doesn't scream UNIQUE.
And his overwhelming popularity doesn't hurt.

 

[Chandeelure]

No, it's not.
And Diddy could have been revealed simultaneously in a Dixie or Cranky trailer. There are no rules to character reveals really.
And I find K. Rool more likely for a variety of reasons. First off Sakurai is looking for unique characters, and quite frankly Dixie doesn't scream UNIQUE.
And his overwhelming popularity doesn't hurt.

That wasn't for you only.
Also, double reveal?...no XD
And I didn't say something about uniqueness or popularity, I said that people think a newcomer can be revealed before a veteran of the same franchise, and that's ridiculous IMO.

 

[BKupa666]

Not to get into a debate, but no, I don't a double reveal would have happened. I do think, however, that Diddy could have easily been shown off instead of Lucario at the end of January if Dixie was a priority to reveal in February.

But that's off-topic. Let's keep that stuff in the character discussion.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Dixie may not have been revealed during the direct, but I don't think it hurts her chances too much. I personally think that it could be justified on the grounds that Dixie may be an unlockable character. In Pre-Brawl days, the only unlockable characters revealed before release were third-parties Snake and Sonic who were both largely used to advertise the game. Hence the reason why Dixie may not have been revealed at the direct is because Nintendo didn't want to spoil too many unlockable characters. I personally feel that Hard-core K. Rool fans who use the direct as evidence against Dixie are really grasping at straws. Just my opinion, I could be proven wrong.

 

[Xenigma]

Stop saying that K.Rool is more likely or Dixie is less likely because she wasn't revealed for Tropical Freeze, all the veterans (Diddy in this case) need to be revealed before the newcomers, is just...obvious.

While I agree all veterans need to be revealed in a franchise before any newcomers, going by the sole precedent of Rosalina, the failure to do so prior to the release of Tropical Freeze could certainly indicate that there is no newcomer from that specific title. Considering Dixie is in TF and K. Rool is not, supporters of the latter have a decent case to make that this is a sign that K. Rool is in and Dixie is not, which would certainly affect ratings here. Personally I doubt it really changes anything (as noted in my rating), but there's a valid argument to be made.

 

[Groose]

Working on updating now. We have over 50 people who voted today, and posts are pretty passionate and lengthy. It's my policy to read through every post (or at least do a somewhat thorough skim), and it's taking some extra time. I hope to have things done in an hour.

I think we should do a disappointment day for all the deconfirmed characters...

Hmm... I've been trying to brainstorm ideas for a pre-E3 special week.I think this is a day that would be good to do then-we'll probably have a few more chops to cover by then, too.

Skimming through these posts, and all I have to say is if you're rating at 20%+ when the user who is a huge fan of the character is only rating at 9%, you're probably rating too high.

I agree, but the people are rating that high genuinely believe it, so I have no grounds for excluding their results. They stand.

 

[Erimir]

Stop saying that K.Rool is more likely or Dixie is less likely because she wasn't revealed for Tropical Freeze, all the veterans (Diddy in this case) need to be revealed before the newcomers, is just...obvious.

Diddy's reveal was not outside of Sakurai's control.

If he wanted Diddy revealed before the release of DKC:TF, he could've revealed him between other characters (e.g. October or November) or instead of another character that didn't coincide with a specific game release (Marth, Lucario).

If he wanted to reveal Dixie on DKC:TF's release date, and he wanted Diddy revealed before that happened, he could've made it happen.

So I think it is a valid point. It's not definitive evidence, since so far we've only seen veterans used primarily to market new releases (see: Olimar - Pikmin 3, Luigi - Luigi's Mansion, Toon Link - Wind Waker, Sonic - Lost Worlds, Zelda - Link Between Worlds, Dedede - Triple Deluxe and now Diddy with DKC:TF). Rosalina and Little Mac are the only non-E3 newcomers, and Rosalina came a month after Super Mario 3D World, and Little Mac obviously has no releases on the horizon. So newcomers may or may not coincide with game releases (perhaps to make them more surprising?).

But I don't think it's bizarre to think that if Dixie were in, the most obvious time to reveal her would've been this month. Sakurai did not take that opportunity, and it was well within his control to do so.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Diddy's reveal was not outside of Sakurai's control.

If he wanted Diddy revealed before the release of DKC:TF, he could've revealed him between other characters (e.g. October or November) or instead of another character that didn't coincide with a specific game release (Marth, Lucario).

If he wanted to reveal Dixie on DKC:TF's release date, and he wanted Diddy revealed before that happened, he could've made it happen.

So I think it is a valid point. It's not definitive evidence, since so far we've only seen veterans used primarily to market new releases (see: Olimar - Pikmin 3, Luigi - Luigi's Mansion, Toon Link - Wind Waker, Sonic - Lost Worlds, Zelda - Link Between Worlds, Dedede - Triple Deluxe and now Diddy with DKC:TF). Rosalina and Little Mac are the only non-E3 newcomers, and Rosalina came a month after Super Mario 3D World, and Little Mac obviously has no releases on the horizon. So newcomers may or may not coincide with game releases (perhaps to make them more surprising?).

But I don't think it's bizarre to think that if Dixie were in, the most obvious time to reveal her would've been this month. Sakurai did not take that opportunity, and it was well within his control to do so.

Just saying, Little Mac was reviled for the Punch-Out!! anniversary. (I think)

 

[Groose]

EDIT: Pac-Man will have to wait until Takamaru is done. Please don't kill me.

I was going to suggest you wait for that, as well. Additionally, we'll probably have Mii again in about a week; I wouldn't object if you chose until then to make an edit.

x5 Professor E. Gadd. You're welcome Groose.

I appreciatethe thought. However, the schedule has me handcuffed here. You'll see what I mean shortly.

WOAH!

Groose, nice pic choice in the OP for Grovyle.


.........and now it's saved.

D!ck Gumshoe x5

I was rather proud of that image. I usually don't have much time to go searching for a good image, but I had some extra when I started the day.

...and Gumshoe? Hmmm. I think his chances of getting in are as high as his chances of getting a raise. More on that later, perhaps.

Grovyle Chance: 1%
Tell me which is more likely to make the cut: a character from the core Pokemon series beloved by millions, or a character from a spin-off franchise enjoyed by just a few hundred thousand? I'd wager the main series character, and I'd even go as far as to say that the spin-off character doesn't have a chance at all, bar only a truly special case. Unfortunately, I can't say that Grovyle is one, and thus he has no chance.

...fortunately, he has a main series counterpart. Grovyle is a starter Pokemon and is a shoo-in if a Hoenn Trainer were to happen. I'd give that about a 1% chance, as there could be some sort of Hoenn remake in the works. Still, we can't even be sure if the Hoenn remakes will happen.

Grovyle Want: 50%
I love Grovyle. I almost always started with Treecko, and I must have played Sapphire twenty or more times back in the day. Not sold on him as a Smash character, but I couldn't really say no.

King K. Rool:

Court, or some facsimile there of, is now in session for the trial of King K. Rool!
​

Why, how dare you! This trial is very real, and very serious!
Now act like it, or I'll cook your goose!

​

Erm, yes! As you say, Prosekrool!
So, are the both sides ready?
​

The defense... is... ehm... ready!

The prosecution is also ready.​

Very well. Your opening statement, please, Mr. Prosekrool!​

This King K. Rool fellow is stylish. It would be an insult if he didn't make it in.
The prosecution feels he has an excellent shot at getting into the next Smash Bros.​

Mr. Prosekrool? As prosecutor, you're supposed to prove that he won't make it in!​

Oh. Well, that's impossible. Because I fully intend to make... errr...
I mean, this cool defendant guy is clearly getting in.
​

Mr. Prosekrool, you forget that King K. Rool
has been forgotten by his own creators! How could you possibly
think they'd remember him for this game?

Mr. Wright? Aren't you supposed to be asserting your client's innocence?​

Yeah... but this prosecutor is so bad at his job, I felt we should
at least have some sort of debate here!

Hah! You amuse me, Wright. Remind me not to steal your banana horde
after this is all said and done. You ask why the developers would remember me... err... I mean Mr. Rool?
Why, just look at all the fan requests! How could they forget about me?​

Well, maybe not forget about him... but
perhaps remember Dixie more strongly?
She has a new game coming out, I see.
Why wouldn't they use her to promote it instead?

PAH! That game's launch has come and gone!
Why would they not show her off to promote it when
the vast majority of characters have been revealed for promotion?
After all, DK was supposed to be part of a system-saving effort,
and it could have used all of the promotion it could get!
​

Perhaps they plan to have Dixie be an unlock-able?

Why? It would make far more sense to harness her reveal as promotion.
Save the unlock-able characters for those without major new releases.
​

Perhaps he won't make it in becausse he's owned by Rare?

Perhaps you need to stop making counterarguments.
I think we've reached a verdict. King K. Rool will be in this game!
Judge, your ruling! Now!
​

Very well! This court finds King K. Rool...
100% confirmed!

It's time to end this charade! Your Honor, this prosecutor is not a prosecutor at all.
He's actually the defendant in this case, and he's throwing things on purpose.

K. Rool actually does have a really good shot. He's a very important character
to his franchise and has appeared in almost everything related to it until 2010.
Additionally, he's god-tier in requests both here and in the East.
Finally, he has more obvious benefits than either Dixie or Cranky.

Unfortunately for K. Rool, he's been written out of his series since its 2010 rebirth.
Additionally, while Dixie has indeed been hurt by her noshow at the Direct, she is still
a dangerous competitor.

Honestly, it wouldn't be surprsing to see K. Rool sit this one out .
It also wouldn't be surprising to see him in.
I think a 50% chance is in order.
Oh, and a 100% want.
​

Midna x5
Can't nominate E. Gadd today, or we won't be able to rate Athena on a weekend as intended.

DAY OVER

SORRY FOR THE TERRIBLE ACE ATTORNEY POST BUT I'M OUT OF TIME!​

 

[LoneKonWolf]

DAY OVER

SORRY FOR THE TERRIBLE ACE ATTORNEY POST BUT I'M OUT OF TIME!​

doesn't really change that it was awesome mate
sounds just like something the crazy kroc will do

 

[Groose]

Grovyle (Pokemon)
3.41% chance
33.91% want
It looks like Grovyle needs to evolve in order to qualify for Smash Bros., and I don't mean into a Sceptile--I mean into a more ubiquitous character.

King K. Rool
68.28% chance (old: 74.36%)
85.46% want (old: 84.47% want)
K. Rool's chances have dropped since our last rating. He now stands below Ridley at Rank 4 Chance--just one position ahead of rival Dixie Kong.. Fortunately, K. Rool keeps his title of RTC's most wanted newcomer, actually improving on his previous want score.

Rate In Chance and Want:
Louie (Pikmin)
Takamaru (Ninja Castle)

Predict:
Athena Cykes
Nutty Noon Stage

Sorry for the quick update, but I gotta jet!

 

[FalKoopa]

Lol Prosecutor Kroolworth.

Moving on...
Louie:
Likelihood: 10%
A second Pikmin character, while not impossible, is definitely a long shot at this point. Sakurai's emphasis on uniqueness is his biggest downfall, and fellow Pikmin 3 captains give him some serious trouble too.

Want: 10%
I don't hate him. But a 2nd Pikmin character seems unnecessary to me.

Takamaru: 50%
The most likely retro to join the fray, I believe.

Want: 50%
Mostly indifferent. Samurais are cool though.

Athena Cykes prediction: 0%
She won't get in until Gumshoe gets a raise.
Nutty Noon stage: 15%
No idea.

So I win extra noms again. Nice.
Bowser's castle x 10

 

[Chandeelure]

-Louie:
Chances: 2%
Want: 0%

-Takamaru:
Chances: 35%
Want: 0%

-Athena Cykes Prediction: 0,1%

-Nutty Noon Prediction: 13%

-Nomination: Toon Zelda/Tetra X5

 

[Smasher 101]

@ LoneKonWolf wins extra nominations for the second day in a row with his K. Rool prediction. @ FalKoopa wins for Grovyle.

Louie's chances: 5% - I'm pretty doubtful of a second Pikmin character but I think he's one of the frontrunners.
Want: 50% - I wouldn't mind another Pikmin character as long as it's one of the captains. Don't necessarily want one though.

Takamaru's chances: 50% - I expect at least one new retro character, and with him being one of the most popular choices, as well as him and his game showing up in several titles since Brawl (Such as Samurai Warriors 3 and Nintendo Land), I think he's the frontrunner.
Want: 20% - That being said, he's one of my least favorite retro choices; only the Duck Hunt Dog gets a lower want score. I just don't find him interesting.

Athena Cykes prediction: 0.02% - Scroge, Yarne, and Owain may not be at the bottom much longer...
Nutty Noon prediction: 26.54% - Not a clue.

Meowth x5. Meow.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

huh look at that, I now have an extra 15 at my disposle, i'll just keep it for now mates
louie - 1.21%
only chance is if they can incorporate the newer pikmin with him, and seeing how the more recent captains are more likely to do that, that kinda screws him over
want - 1%
only 1 for more pikmin repensation, still doesn't change that it would be a waste of a slot
Takamaru - 32.75%
retros are hard to pin, but he's seems to be the most likely mainly because of being the obvious, he also seems to be getting back up with a minigame and some camos
want - 65%
I would like a samurai, not my personal pick but i'll still like his inclusion
Athena cykes - 0.05%
oh boy
nutty noon - 13.44%
. . . does anyone have any idea?
nominations:
shulkX5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Louie
Chance: 0% - In the very unlikely event that we get another Pikmin character, it should definitely be Alph. The first two Pikmin games are already represented by Olimar, so a second pikmin rep should be from Pikmin 3. Alph can also bring both Winged Pikmin and Rock Pikmin into his movepool to differentiate himself from Olimar. The only way I can see Louie being a unique character is for him to have a movepool based around his "implied" control over bugs. But that would be way to much work for a character that very few people want.
Want: 0% Even as a die-hard Pikmin fan, I hate Louie. He's just a completely insane glutton who causes way too much trouble.

Takamaru
Chance: 36% - He seems to be the most likely retro thanks to the Nintendoland and Samurai Warriors reference. His weaknesses are being from a "Japan only" title and being a sword user where there is a lot of competition.
Just for fun, let's list the possible sword users to see what Takamaru is up against:

1. Link (confirmed)
2. Toon Link (confirmed)
3. Marth (confirmed)
4. Metaknight (shoe-in)
5. Ike (almost a shoe-in)
6. Isaac
7. Shulk
8. Saki
9. Samurai Goroh
10. Ghirahim
11. Prince of Sable
12. Additional Fire Emblem rep (Roy, Chrom, Lucina, Robin, Anna)
13.Possibly Gannondorf, depending on if he brings his sword.

Not sure if Pit's blades count as swords, but they function in a similar manner. I doubt Sakurai will want too many sword users.
Want: 89% - My most wanted retro.

Athena Cykes prediction: 0.04%

Nutty Noon prediction: 4.7%

Nominations: Improved Stage Builder x5

 

[Starcutter]

Grovyle (Pokemon)
3.41% chance
33.91% want
It looks like Grovyle needs to evolve in order to qualify for Smash Bros., and I don't mean into a Sceptile--I mean into a more ubiquitous character.

Budum tss

 

[Kenith]

Louie:
Chance: 5%. No.
Want: 1%. Thanks.

Takamaru:
Chance: 50%: Contrary to what many others believe, I don't consider Takamaru an incredibly likely character. He, indeed, does have a few things going for him, but I don't think it makes him that much more important than other retro choices.
Want: 30%. I don't really care that much. He's pretty much just a samurai with some ninja powers. While the thought of him directly contrasting Little Mac in cultural and fighting attributes, I want some other retros more.

Athena Cykes: 3%.
Nutty Noon: 3%.

Nominations: Improved Stage Builder x5

 

[Xenigma]

Louie - 2%
Two big problems in my eyes. One, Pikmin isn't really a franchise that needs a second character. Olimar captures the spirit of the franchise quite well and it simply isn't big enough to justify an additional slot compared to other Nintendo franchises, even if it did have a new game release recently. Second, even if we were to get a second Pikmin character, Louie isn't a lock since there are the Pikmin 3 pilots to consider, and they might even be somewhat more likely as that game would likely be the reason a second character is picked in the first place. Unless the roster ends up much larger than expected and Sakurai isn't adverse to having an Olimar clone not picked from the most recent release, I don't think Louie will make the cut.
Want - 0% - One Pikmin character is plenty, thank you. Also, I generally believe smaller franchises like Pikmin should be kept to one rep so that more franchises can get playable characters; every Lucas or Palutena we get means less characters like Isaac, Shulk, or Saki, which is an absolute shame.

Takamaru - 25%
As many others have stated, Takamaru is the most likely retro...which doesn't really mean much. It's a category that is inherently unpredictable, and with the strongest evidence of his inclusion/revival being his name appearing in a mini-game collection, it's hardly a given that Takamaru will stand out as the retro to pick. Also, as far as I know Sakurai has never even said that a new retro is a given for SSB4; in my opinion, it's a category that is grossly overrated here just because Melee and Brawl happened to include interesting characters that were also old, and I'm not sure Takamaru is all that interesting. This rating could easily change if a new game starring Takamaru were to actually be announced by E3, but as it stands, I don't think he's remotely worthy of the top ten chances he has enjoyed in this competition.
Want - 25% - Has potential, and I could see him winning me over if implemented well, but I can't say I'm at all excited for him or any other retro right now.

Athena Cykes Prediction - 0.04%
Considering Phoenix Wright himself only got 0.58%, this ought to be ugly. Maybe she beats Scrooge?

Nutty Noon Stage Prediction - 6.5%
I'm guessing it gets shot down simply for being too specific.

Nominations
Midna x5

 

[loganhogan]

Louie
chance 15% If they decided for a Pikmin newcomer he would probably be the guy, but that doesn't seem likely.
want 10%

Takamaru
chance 60% What everyone else said. He's the most prominent retro character, look up his cameos in Nintendoland and Captain Rainbow especially. I really do think he stands a good chance.
want 70%

x3 Sheriff
x2 Isa Jo

predict .1% and 5.8%

 

[NickerBocker]

Louie

He doesn't have a lot going for him, considering that Pikmin doesnt warrant a 2nd slot this time around.
Chance: 5%
Want: 25%

Takamaru

Well he is the most prominent retro at this point. His attraction in Nintendo Land shows that Nintendo wants to keep him around. compared to all the other retros, i would say he has the best chance. Im pretty indifferent to pretty much any retro character.
Chance: 40%
Want: 50%

Athena Cykes: 0.005%
Nutty Noon: 8.3%

Nominations:
Bowser's Castle x5

 

[Glaciacott]

Louie
Chance - 6%
A second Pikmin that actually makes sense. Even if Pikmin probably wouldn't get a second rep.

Want - 60%
Most of this want is the genuine desire to beat the living crap out of him. If you've played the Pikmin series, you'll understand why.

Takamaru
Chance - 55%
A fairly likely retro, even if he's not a lock. I see him as completing the 1986 quartet that also includes Link, Pit and Samus. If anything, he's kind of to Link what Pit is to Samus. Except for the whole Japan only thing, and the whole no real sequels thing too. So I guess he's really not at all like Pit is to Samus ... Still, seems like a cool fellow

Want - 90%
I'm always a fan of old franchises getting the revival treatment, and this is one of those series that seems to be poised to go through exactly that.

Predictions
Athena - 0.68%
Who?
Nutty Noon stage - 8.43%
Sounds oddly specific ... why this one for Kirby?

Nominations
x5 Magolor

 

[AustarusIV]

Louie
Chance: 2%
Pikmin is one of those franchises that I think will only ever have one rep.

Want: 5%
I'll admit, I haven't played very much of Pikmin so I can't give a good analysis on his character. But to me, he doesn't look that appealing.

Takamaru
Chance: 60%
I think he's one of the more likely newcomers, honestly. Why else did he get represented in Nintendo Land, when his franchise hasn't seen representation in more than 20 years? IIRC, Sakurai had even talked about him being a Smash Bros. character once, and that he would add him in if he made another major appearance, so...

Want: 75%
OK, I've honestly never played his game before. But the idea of playing an actual Samurai from the Edo period is just so cool, that I wish Nintendo won't miss this opportunity.

 

[Headcrab Jackalope]

Louie

Chance: 25%- Really depends on if Sakurai wants a new Pikmin character. He has tons of unique moveset potential, and is definitely the frontrunner for Pikmin.

Want: 100%- My second-most wanted newcomer, right up there with Plasm Wraith. I love his personality as well.

Takamaru

Chance: 55%- Not entirely sure what to rate him, but uh, likely retro I guess.

Want: 0%- No attachment to the character at all. I also don't really like his design.

Predictions

Athena: 0.56%- Who?

Nutty Noon Stage: 7.8%- Eh, pretty unlikely.

Nominations

Petey Piranha x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Louie
Double 0s
Really? Another Pikmin rep? What does he even offer?

Takamaru
65% Chance
100% Want

I like retro characters in general. Takamaru is my favorite, and it would be great to see the four '86 siblings together...
Athena .33%
Nutty Noon 16.2%

Nominating No Cuts x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Louie(Not G):
Chance: 10%
If Pikmin were to have a second character included it's really only out of this fella or Alph. Louie has more prominence in the series overall than newcomer Alph and could use bugs as well as the last two Pikmin types to fight. It's unfortunately unlikely though.

Want: 30%
My Pikmin character of choice. Not that I'm particularly desperate for a secondary Pikmin rep.

Takamaru:
Chance: 30%
Honestly Takamaru isn't that unique. He's probably the most requested newcomer but to the majority of the west he'd be very "WHO?". Most famous retro thanks to Nintendoland? No actually. Balloon Fighter and Duck Hunt Dog are both more famous with various references in Warioware, Wii Play, etc, and Balloon Fighter ALSO had a game in Nintendoland. If it weren't for Villager taking his bit, I dare say Balloon Fighter would EASILY be the most recognised retro character that was possible for Smash.

That said in Japan according to Chrono's findings; Retro requests rarely come up. But when they do it's usually for Takamaru. He's probably more demanded over in the west than Japan now.

As ever there's a lot of retro picks and it's hard to actually say who will be picked for sure. I don't think many people would of expected Ice Climbers to be included before Pit or Little Mac for example(neither are now retro, but ya know)

Want: 0%
I have yet to meet anyone who can explain his appeal beyond being a generic samurai and to complete some arbitrary "Famicom Four" quota. Literally every other retro that has been brought up has been more unique and interesting than Takamaru. What exactly can he do?:

He has ninja skills? Not that unique; we got Shiek.
Has a fire sword? We've had Roy(and he's far more popularly requested in Japan than Takamaru) and Ike to a lesser extent.
He's a swordsman that offers a totally unique style? Arguable. I can't see him doing anything that will differ himself from the many varied swordsmen we already have.

I mean seriously compare a fairly generic samurai to the following options:

• Prince Sable can transform into snakes and frogs to mix in to his swordsplay, which arguably making for a more interesting moveset than one solely based around a katana since he could easily slip between transformations on the fly for some interesting combos, grabs and attacks.

• Muddy Mole offers an interesting digging mechanic to the game which hasn't been done before. I have no idea how it'd not be overpowered, but attacking the opponent from the stage sounds pretty intriguing.

• Lip, as being discussed in Create A Smash project at current is basically perfect for Venomous Drainer archetype; someone that wears down the opponent by sapping their strength. She could also create platforms out of garbage blocks allowing for area control. Only thing I'm not sure on is if she officially is a retro or not.

• Bubbles, although rarely brought up, can offer a momentum based moveset that allows her to hit harder and faster the longer she goes.

• I've seen suggestion of Duck Hunt Dog using a fourth wall mechanic to 'fight' with the hunter in the game. I've played him in Crusade as well and I have to say that's a moveset that is really wacky, but really really fun.

• And then we got Balloon Fighter who could easily have been one of the first pure aerial based combatants, a totally unique concept at the time of this writing.

Meanwhile Takamaru...swings a sword a lot. Which has been done to death. He may throw in the odd projectile, but the three Links and Pit are also swordsmen with projectiles.

He doesn't even appeal to the nostalgia because we never got his game. I grew up with Pit, Little Mac, Balloon Fighter, Duck Hunt Dog...I even played Ice Climbers prior to their appearance in Smash. But Takamaru? Never even knew of him before finding out about Captain Rainbow.

This is probably my first 0% for a character that's got a pretty big fanbase. I don't get the appeal I guess. If it's so he gets a revival like Pit did...well...look how well that worked out for the Ice Climbers.

Predictions:

Athena: 0.30%
I'll be honestly disappointed in all of you if she somehow gets a higher chance score than the titular character of the Phoenix Wright games.

Nutty Noon stage: 7%
I have no idea.

Nominations:

Meowth X 5

 

[Deleted member]

K. Rool dropped in chance? I'm rather surprised!
Louie and Takamaru have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated Takamaru on his day, check to see what you said!

Louie G.
Chance: 7%
He is definitely a frontrunner for a Pikmin rep. Obviously, Louie is to Olimar what Luigi is to Mario, except that Louie isn't Olimar's brother. This is actually a benefit for Louie as he can easily be a semi-clone like Luigi. His body and frame is similar to that of Olimar and he could use the same exact Pikmin as Olimar, which is somewhat of a detriment to Alph who would take some more work to replace the Purple and White Pikmin for Rock and Flying Pikmin.
The problem is that Louie isn't really demanded by fans to be included into Smash. Smash fans believe that the 2nd rep should be Alph or that the series is just fine with Olimar. I do think that Louie is a contender as the 2nd Pikmin rep, but I don't think that the series is ready yet.
Want: 80%
His name reminds me of Luigi, my favorite video game character! So… his want gets a major bonus.

Takamaru
Chance: 65%
When it comes to retros, Takamaru is by far the most likely in my eyes.
His game never made it outside of Japan, which probably hurt him in the long run as he isn't next to Nintendo greats like Link, Samus, and Pit (the "1986 4"). How bad could this have hurt him? Well, he appeared in Captain Rainbow, a game full of Nintendo's most obscure characters. I believe that prior to that game that he had the occasional reference, but it still shows that Takamaru is mostly an obscure character. Sakurai's statements on the character have helped him however. I remember hearing that Sakurai wouldn't put Takamaru in Smash unless he was in another game. Not only was he in Captain Rainbow, but he was also in Samurai Warriors 3 and had a game featured in Nintendo Land. It's odd how he got a game in Nintendo Land while a series like Star Fox didn't… it shows that Nintendo has Takamaru's series on their minds. I am pretty sure that he will get a revival somewhere down the road, but I digress.
In terms of Smash requests, he is the most demanded retro. While this is an amazing accomplishment, retros are rarely brought up it seems, but this still helps Takamaru in his chances.
Overall, I think that Takamaru is a contender for Smash 4. I don't think that Little Mac ruined his chances if we don't view him as a retro character thanks to the game on the Wii. I would be slightly surprised if he did not get in and yet not surprised if he got in.
Want: 100%
He uses a sword yes, but I know that he could do so much more. His sword style is vastly different since he is a samurai and he could use weapons like Shurikens and could launch out fireballs. Honestly, I have never played his game, but I would love to see an obscure character like him fight against the all-stars. (so we go from obscurity to all-star?)
He was my fifth most wanted newcomer for SSB4, but another character has risen above him… Shulk. Not only have I played his game, but I believe that the Monado could offer so much more to create a far more unique moveset. Regardless, I would still love to see Takamaru in Smash.
If he joins the battle, then I hope that he won't get those deadly nosebleeds when he fights against women…

Athena Cykes Prediction: .46%
I sense that her fans might give an outlier rating, but I am pretty sure that she will get 0s all around. I would be extremely surprised if she got a higher score than Phoenix Wright.
Nutty Noon Stage: 10.55%
No idea.

Nominations: Zael 5x

 

[Gunla]

Don't drop that Dedenne like Nintendo.

Louie G. (he he)
Pros
+Frontrunner in next Pikmin Rep
+Actually relatively known by people
Cons
-Us getting a new Pikmin rep does not seem very likely.
-Does he offer that much uniqueness when Olimar has all of his Pikmin?
-Alph close behind him.
Overall... if we got one, it would likely be him, but it's not really likely we will.
OVERALL RATING: 5%
Want: 1%- Nah, I can pass on a second Pikmin slot.

ERMAGERD, TEKEMERU!

Pros
+Unique style of swordplay creates a unique character.
+Relevant in the world of Nintendo. See: Samurai Warriors III, Nintendo Land.
+Most demanded Retro
+Sakurai's comments about him being a possible addition helps Taka.
Cons
-Sword Usage could draw off Sakurai
-He's a pseudo-Retro, so Sakurai could call him rebooted and ignore the chap.
Overall...He doesn't have that substantial lead, but he's still relevant in the world of Nintendo.
OVERALL RATING: 60%
Want: 50%- INDIFFERENT!

PREDICTIONS:
Athena- Psyche!-.1%.
You've got to be Nuts about this Nutty Noon!- 15%
NOMINATIONS:
Improved Stage Builder X5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Louie Chance: 3% As much as I want Louie, it's definitely going to be Alph chosen to represent the awesomeness that is Pikmin 3. And there isn't much to make him distinct from Olimar.
Louie Want: 20% My want for him has slowly faded away ever since playing Pikmin 3, it should be Alph.
Takamaru Chance: 25% I only give him an extra 10% percent like with every other retro because he has gotten a new game for Sakurai to consider, but it really isn't saying much, I think people are overrating him if it goes over 50%, unless there is a picture leak of him, I wouldn't suggest go over 50%.
Takamaru Want: 60% I prefer MANY other retros that fully deserve to get in because of the greatness but blocked by obscurity.

Athena Prediction: 0.23% Seriously? Predictable Want Scores incoming.
Nominations:
x5 Alph Brittany Charlie Trio.

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Louie the *******

Chance: 7%
Pikmin is a cult series with a unique gameplay element and few adorable characters. Louie's among the most despicable due to his oblong design, selfish personality, and greedy behavior. I would rather not mentioned what happened in the most recent title, but that seals his fate in my eyes. He would basically pull off exactly what Olimar could do, hence why he wouldn't be any enjoyable in Smash. Sakurai wouldn't be foolish enough to give Pikmin another character this time around.

Want: 20%
In all honesty one Pikmin rep is good enough and having the voracious cadet wouldn't make things any better. Louie, stay a trophy for as long as you live!

Takamaru Himura

Chance: 65%
When it comes to retros, Takamaru is by far the most likely so fars.
He's Japanese exclusive until after Brawl's release a la Samurai Warriors 3, which slightly hurts him in the long run as he isn't next to Nintendo greats like Rinku, Samusu, and Pitto (the "Famicom Four"). He have also appeared in Captain Rainbow, a game full of Nintendo's most obscure characters that flopped in Japan. I believe that prior to that game that he had the occasional reference, but it still shows that Takamaru is mostly an obscure character. Sakurai's word on the character did give of a shimmer of hope. It was said that Sakurai wouldn't put Takamaru in Smash unless he was in another game. After the release of the failed Wii exclusive Samurai Warriors 3, there was the addition of a Nazo no Murasame-Jo based minigame in Nintendo Land. Considering it's unexpected appearance along with a Balloon Fighter minigame, it shows that Nintendo still cares for the forgotten samurai after all these years. Not to mention the big man himself (Hideki Kamiya) is slightly interested in making reboot, though he has other demands at the moment like Star Fox. By Smash requests, he is the most demanded retro. While this is an amazing accomplishment, retros are rarely brought up it seems (mostly to them being unexpected than wanted), but this still helps Taka's chances little by little.
Overall, I think that Takamaru is a fantastic contender for Smash 4. I don't think that Little Mac's inclusion means tanooki **** if we don't view him as a retro character anymore thanks to the Wii revival. I would be saddened if he got left out and yet jolly if he got in.
Want: 100%
Sure he's "an other swordsman", but I know that he could do so much more that just slice n' dice. His sword style is obviously different since he is a katana user and he could use various too like shirukens and clay bombs. Not to mention the use of elemental abilities revolving around fire and electricity. Honestly, I have played Nazo no Murasame-Jo years ago and I would love to see an obscure character like him fight against the all-stars. Been rooting for him since pre-Melee as my most wanted newcomer and he would be my only great wish for Sakurai-san.

 

[Xenigma]

Just took a look back at my old Takamaru rating via the directory and was reminded that, before joining Smashboards, I'd never even heard of Takamaru, and I have to imagine I wasn't an unusual case. Consider his most recent appearances. Has a mini-game named after him in Nintendo Land? Notable, but his character never appears and many likely never played it since the Wii U was so poorly adopted at launch. Playable in Samurai Warriors III? Interesting, especially since he got his own custom mode/missions, but Warriors is a very niche series these days and he was the natural choice for a Nintendo cameo within that setting. Captain Rainbow? Hardly seems relevant when he's just one of many retro/forgotten characters in the game, and the game itself is awfully obscure itself. Point is, he's an incredibly easy character to miss even for Nintendo fans like myself and he doesn't exactly seem highly requested either outside of places like Smashboards that are specifically trying to figure out what retros might be included. Food for thought before tossing a 50+% rating at him just because he enjoys surprising popularity here.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Louie:

Chance: 6%
The highest chance of another Pikmin rep, but with only three games, and not the highest of sales I don't think it's likely to get more representation.

Want: 10%
I'd like to see how he'd be different, but honestly happy with Olimar.



Takamaru:

Chance: 70%
The most likely Retro, and a series with a decent shot of making a comeback (especially after Nintendo opening up their IP library). He'd also provide an entirely different style of combat (Katanas do not function like Rapiers (Marth uses his like one) Longswords (Links) or ******* Swords (Ike)... I really don't get the sword user hate, there's no hate for having another punching character in Little Mac despite pretty much every other character punching!). Moreover he's probably the best choice available for a stealth character (which is kinda silly when you think about Snake, but invisibility is key) which we don't have one of. Sakurai seems to be filling out the traditional fighting game roles with this game, and this is an archetype currently unexplored.

Want: 100%
Samurai are cool, Takamaru brings a unique play style with him, and I'd love to see the series back.



Nutty Noon Stage: 8%
That background man... sadly the game has more fitting/obvious levels for stages in my opinion, and the Lor Starcutter to contend with.


Fatal Frame*5

 

[Rockaphin]

Louie:
Chance: 10%
Want: 10%
I'd rather see Alph, but all I want is for the new Pikmin to be included in Olimar's Moveset.

Takamaru:
Chance: 55%
Want: 1.5%
Really don't have an interest here, there's other retro reps I'd much rather see.

Nominations:
Paper Mario Stage X5

 

[Pacack]

Louie:

Chance: 2%
Not at all likely, honestly.

Want: 0%
Sorry, no. The only thing I want Louie to be is an alternate costume. And yes, this is after my playing Pikmin 2.

Takamaru:

Chance: 73%
I never make a prediction roster without Takamaru on it. If we get a retro character (and I'm about 80% sure we will), then it's most likely going to be Takamaru. Or Lip if she counts, but I don't think she quite does.

Want: 90%
I love swordsmen, I love Japanese culture, I love magic, I love retros. Definitely up there on my want list. Especially if it means that his series gets a revival.

Predictions:

Athena: .05%
Nutty Noon: 11%?

Nominations: x5 Non-Character Hanafuda Representation

 

[Aqua Rock X]

LOUIE

Chance: 5% - Most likely Pikmin newcomer, but not by much.

Want: 40% - I'm not really a Pikmin guy.

TAKAMARU

Chance: 60% - Somewhat likely IMO.

Want: 70% - Could bring an interesting samurai styled moveset.

Athena Cykes Prediction: .05% - ???

Nutty Noon Stage: 30% - ???

Nominations:
Other M styled Ridley x5 (Have we rated this concept yet?)

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Louie: 5%
Want: 0%
Taka: 50%
Want: 100%
Athena: 0.13%
Nutty Noon: 45%
KI Dog x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Louie

Chance - 1% - I'd call him the most likely of all Pikmin newcomers, but I only see him as a last minute clone. I don't see the need to even add the new types of Pikmin in, so why him?

Want - 5% - I dislike the idea of a Pikmin captain appearing. I still say the Titan Dwevil is the superior option for a Pikmin newcomer.


Takamaru

Chance - 75% - I think I gave him 5% more than I should have. It's not that my opinion is different, it's just that I think I overrated him a bit.

Want - 60% - No change. Not particularly exiting, but acceptable. The Samurai is cool and all, but he's grown to be so predictable that any excitement over him has been lost on me.


Prediction

Athena Cykes - 0.29% - Half Phoenix's score. Don't get your hopes up.

Nutty Noon Stage - 10.75% - People seem to think that this stage is competing with other Return to Dreamland stages tomorrow. Hopefully, I can prove why not tomorrow...


Nominations
Eh, sense I seem to be on a roll for Kirby nominations, might as well help another out.

Magolor X5